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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Influence of alveolar mixing and multiple breaths of aerosol intake on particle deposition in the human lungs

Predictive dosimetry models play an important role in assessing health effect of inhaled particulate matter and in optimizing delivery of inhaled pharmaceutical aerosols. Here, in this study, the commonly used 1D Multiple-Path Particle Dosimetry model (MPPD) was improved by including a mechanistically based model component for alveolar mixing of particles and by extending the model capabilities to account for multiple breaths of aerosol intake. These modifications increased the retained fraction of particles and consequently particle deposition predictions in the deep lung during tidal breathing. Comparison with an existing dataset (J. Aerosol Sci., 99:27-39, 2016) obtained under two breathing conditions referred to as slow and fast breathing showed significant differences in 1 µm particle deposition between predictions (slow: 30±1%, fast: 21±1%) and measurements (slow: 43±9%, fast: 30±5%) when the prior version of MPPD (single breath and no mixing, J. Aerosol Sci., 151:105647, 2021) was used. Adding a mixing model and multiple breaths moved the predictions (slow: 34±2%, fast:25±2%) closer to the range of deposition measurements. For 2.9 µm particles, predictions from both the original (slow: 70±2%, fast: 57±2%) and the revised MPPD model (slow: 71±2%, fast: 59±3%) compared well with experiments (slow: 67±8%, fast: 58±10%). This was expected as suspended fraction of 2.9 µm particles was small and thus the addition of alveolar mixing and multi breath capability only slightly increased the retained fraction for particles of this size and greater. The revised 1D model improves dose predictions in the deep lung and support human risk assessment from exposure to airborne particles.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Prediction of the development of islet autoantibodies through integration of environmental, genetic, and metabolic markers

The Environmental Determinants of the Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study has prospectively followed, from birth, children at increased genetic risk of type 1 diabetes. We evaluated the potential of machine learning to identify new biomarkers that predict imminent (within 6 months) development of persistent islet autoantibodies to insulin, GAD or IA-2 in TEDDY participants through integration of time-invariant risk factors with time-varying metabolomics. The predictive modeling was initiated with over 220 potential biomarkers; through ensemble-based feature evaluation, the optimal model included 42 biomarkers, returning a cross-validated receiver operating characteristic area under the curve of 0.74. The model identified a principal set of 20 time-invariant markers, including 16 single nucleotide polymorphisms and two HLA-DR genotypes, gestational age, and exposure to a prebiotic formula. Integration of the metabolome identified 22 high-priority metabolites and lipids, including adipic acid and ceramide d42:0, that predicted development of islet autoantibodies, dependent upon the time horizon. The majority (86%) of metabolites that predicted development of islet autoantibodies belonged to 3 pathways: lipid oxidation, phospholipase A2 signaling, and pentose phosphate pathway. TEDDY data suggest that these metabolic processes may play a role in triggering islet autoimmunity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Proton Therapy in Supradiaphragmatic Lymphoma: Predicting Treatment-Related Mortality to Help Optimize Patient Selection

In some patients with Hodgkin lymphoma (HL), proton beam therapy (PBT) may reduce the risk of radiation-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) and second cancers (SC) compared with photon radiation therapy (RT). Our aim was to identify patients who benefit the most from PBT in terms of predicted 30-year absolute mortality risks (AMR{sub 30}) from CVD and SC, taking into account individual background, chemotherapy, radiation, and smoking-related risks.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Budget Constrained Machine Learning for Early Prediction of Adverse Outcomes for COVID-19 Patients

Background: Machine learning (ML) based risk stratification models of Electronic Health records (EHR) data may help to optimize treatment of COVID-19 patients, but are often limited by their lack of clinical interpretability and cost of laboratory tests. We develop a ML based tool for predicting adverse outcomes based on EHR data to optimize clinical utility under a given cost structure. This cohort study was performed using deidentified EHR data from COVID-19 patients from ProMedica Healthcare in northwest Ohio and southeastern Michigan. Methods: We tested performance of various ML approaches for predicting either increasing ventilatory support or mortality and the set of model features under a budget constraint was optimized via exhaustive search across all combinations of features. Results: The optimal sets of features for predicting ventilation under any budget constraint included demographics and comorbidities (DCM), basic metabolic panel (BMP), D-dimer, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), CRP, brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), and procalcitonin and for mortality included DCM, BMP, complete blood count, D-dimer, LDH, CRP, BNP, procalcitonin and ferritin. Conclusions: This study presents a quick, accurate and cost-effective method to evaluate risk of deterioration for patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection at the time of clinical evaluation.

Cadena Pico, JoseE.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Finch: Toxicity Dose Response Curve Prediction of Chemical Compounds and Mixtures

A paradigm shift in chemical risk assessment is emphasizing mixture testing over single compound analysis, eliminating animal testing, and adopting advanced modeling approaches to understand mixture activity profiles. However, existing computational models largely focus on single chemicals, with few effective solutions for modeling complex mixtures that account for synergistic or antagonistic effects and multiple Modes of Action (MoA). Conventional methods like concentration addition (CA) and independent action (IA) are insufficient for this task as they are designed for simplistic interactions and struggle to account for the dynamic and multifaceted nature of chemical mixtures, such as overlapping MoA and non-linear interactions. Finch offers a novel approach utilizing deep learning (DL) embeddings and multi-task quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models to improve chemical exposure prediction. By leveraging molecular descriptors, physiochemical properties, and large language model (LLM) embeddings from SMILES inputs, Finch preserves critical information in a latent space thereby enhancing predictive accuracy. The multi-task learning aspect of Finch is highly advantageous, as it simultaneously optimizes multiple loss functions, leveraging all available data across tasks to develop generalized representations that effectively capture complex ingredient interactions within mixtures.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrating functional scoring and regulatory data to predict the effect of non-coding SNPs in a complex neurological disease

Abstract Most SNPs associated with complex diseases seem to lie in non-coding regions of the genome; however, their contribution to gene expression and disease phenotype remains poorly understood. Here, we established a workflow to provide assistance in prioritising the functional relevance of non-coding SNPs of candidate genes as susceptibility loci in polygenic neurological disorders. To illustrate the applicability of our workflow, we considered the multifactorial disorder migraine as a model to follow our step-by-step approach. We annotated the overlap of selected SNPs with regulatory elements and assessed their potential impact on gene expression based on publicly available prediction algorithms and functional genomics information. Some migraine risk loci have been hypothesised to reside in non-coding regions and to be implicated in the neurotransmission pathway. In this study, we used a set of 22 non-coding SNPs from neurotransmission and synaptic machinery-related genes previously suggested to be involved in migraine susceptibility based on our candidate gene association studies. After prioritising these SNPs, we focused on non-reported ones that demonstrated high regulatory potential: (1) VAMP2_rs1150 (3′ UTR) was predicted as a target of hsa-mir-5010-3p miRNA, possibly disrupting its own gene expression; (2) STX1A_rs6951030 (proximal enhancer) may affect the binding affinity of zinc-finger transcription factors (namely ZNF423) and disturb TBL2 gene expression; and (3) SNAP25_rs2327264 (distal enhancer) expected to be in a binding site of ONECUT2 transcription factor. This study demonstrated the applicability of our practical workflow to facilitate the prioritisation of potentially relevant non-coding SNPs and predict their functional impact in multifactorial neurological diseases.

Felício, Daniela↗
DOE OSTI2024

Envisioning U.S. Climate Predictions and Projections to Meet New Challenges

In the face of a changing climate, the understanding, predictions, and projections of natural and human systems are increasingly crucial to prepare and cope with extremes and cascading hazards, determine unexpected feedbacks and potential tipping points, inform long-term adaptation strategies, and guide mitigation approaches. Increasingly complex socio-economic systems require enhanced predictive information to support advanced practices. Such new predictive challenges drive the need to fully capitalize on ambitious scientific and technological opportunities. These include the unrealized potential for very high-resolution modeling of global-to-local Earth system processes across timescales, reduction of model biases, enhanced integration of human systems and the Earth Systems, better quantification of predictability and uncertainties; expedited science-to-service pathways, and co-production of actionable information with stakeholders. Enabling technological opportunities include exascale computing, advanced data storage, novel observations and powerful data analytics, including artificial intelligence and machine learning. Looking to generate community discussions on how to accelerate progress on U.S. climate predictions and projections, representatives of Federally-funded U.S. modeling groups outline here perspectives on a six-pillar national approach grounded in climate science that builds on the strengths of the U.S. modeling community and agency goals. This calls for an unprecedented level of coordination to capitalize on transformative opportunities, augmenting and complementing current modeling center capabilities and plans to support agency missions. Tangible outcomes include projections with horizontal spatial resolutions finer than 10 km, representing extremes and associated risks in greater detail, reduced model errors, better predictability estimates, and more customized projections to support next generation climate services.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Risk-Adaptive Experimental Design for High-Consequence Systems: LDRD Final Report

Constructing accurate statistical models of critical system responses typically requires an enormous amount of data from physical experiments or numerical simulations. Unfortunately, data generation is often expensive and time consuming. To streamline the data generation process, optimal experimental design determines the 'best' allocation of experiments with respect to a criterion that measures the ability to estimate some important aspect of an assumed statistical model. While optimal design has a vast literature, few researchers have developed design paradigms targeting tail statistics, such as quantiles. In this project, we tailored and extended traditional design paradigms to target distribution tails. Our approach included (i) the development of new optimality criteria to shape the distribution of prediction variances, (ii) the development of novel risk-adapted surrogate models that provably overestimate certain statistics including the probability of exceeding a threshold, and (iii) the asymptotic analysis of regression approaches that target tail statistics such as superquantile regression. To accompany our theoretical contributions, we released implementations of our methods for surrogate modeling and design of experiments in two complementary open source software packages, the ROL/OED Toolkit and PyApprox.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A risk-informed assessment tool to support review of license amendment requests for spent nuclear fuel dry cask storage systems

We report that while risk-informed safety evaluations are common methodologies used by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), their application in the field of commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) dry storage has received limited attention. For instance, license amendment requests (LARs) for SNF dry cask storage systems (DCSSs) are evaluated according to U.S. NRC standard review plans (SRPs). However, risk-informed LAR review strategies could improve the understanding of critical system modifications, and lead to more predictable, efficient, and consistent LAR review processes. A methodology to develop a risk-informed LAR review tool is presented. Although focused on DCSSs, this methodology can be used to develop similar tools for a broad spectrum of safety-relevant systems. The end product (i.e., the tool) includes a tree diagram to help visualize the review risk significances assigned to a predefined set of system modifications and supporting rationale documentation. Instructions support correct tool application and provide the user with a path to incorporate currently unevaluated modifications in the tool structure. The demonstration of the methodology leads to the conclusion that risk-informed reviews of DCSS LARs are possible, although the tool precision could benefit from additional risk information. Further, the results indicate that many typical LARs involve low-risk or medium-risk modifications.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Near-term tropical cyclone risk and coupled Earth system model biases

Most current climate models predict that the equatorial Pacific will evolve under greenhouse gas–induced warming to a more El Niño-like state over the next several decades, with a reduced zonal sea surface temperature gradient and weakened atmospheric Walker circulation. Yet, observations over the last 50 y show the opposite trend, toward a more La Niña-like state. Recent research provides evidence that the discrepancy cannot be dismissed as due to internal variability but rather that the models are incorrectly simulating the equatorial Pacific response to greenhouse gas warming. This implies that projections of regional tropical cyclone activity may be incorrect as well, perhaps even in the direction of change, in ways that can be understood by analogy to historical El Niño and La Niña events: North Pacific tropical cyclone projections will be too active, North Atlantic ones not active enough, for example. Other perils, including severe convective storms and droughts, will also be projected erroneously. While it can be argued that these errors are transient, such that the models’ responses to greenhouse gases may be correct in equilibrium, the transient response is relevant for climate adaptation in the next several decades. Given the urgency of understanding regional patterns of climate risk in the near term, it would be desirable to develop projections that represent a broader range of possible future tropical Pacific warming scenarios—including some in which recent historical trends continue—even if such projections cannot currently be produced using existing coupled earth system models.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of the EarthSHAB Stratospheric Solar Hot Air Balloon Flight Prediction Model Using Balloon Trajectory Data

Abstract The heliotrope is a solar balloon design which is constructed out of painter’s plastic, and the exterior is coated in charcoal powder. Darkening the plastic gives the balloon a high solar absorptance, which allows it to ascend into the lower stratosphere and float for hours at a time. The balloons have previously been used to lift scientific instruments into the stratosphere to study chemical explosions, earthquakes, and stratospheric aerosols. They have also been proposed as a platform for planetary exploration. Flight predictions are crucial to preflight planning to reduce safety risks and meet flight objectives. However, there exists a wide range of possible flight paths due to varying environmental conditions and solar balloon configurations. EarthSHAB is one such software that was designed to support flight planning using the weather forecasts and balloon properties to predict the flight path of a solar balloon. We compare EarthSHAB-simulated flight paths to a set of observed flight paths for the 3.5-m diameter heliotrope design called the “Cloudskimmer.” Using the criteria that the modeled paths must fall within 5% of the observations to be considered successful, we found that EarthSHAB successfully predicted the Cloudskimmer ascent rate and average float altitude 10% and 90% of the time, respectively. We also found that the average difference in the observed and predicted landing locations was 97 km and landing times were 54 ± 38 min. Significant deviations between the observed and predicted ascent rates and excursions at float were found to be associated with heavy payloads and convective cloud development, respectively. Significance Statement Solar balloons are used to lift scientific instruments into the lower stratosphere for hours at a time to study chemical explosions, earthquakes, stratospheric aerosols, and more. The flight paths of solar balloons can be difficult to predict due to variability in their design and surrounding environment. We evaluate the accuracy of EarthSHAB, a software that predicts the altitude profile and horizontal trajectory of a solar balloon using inputs such as the weather, balloon size, and balloon mass. Our results suggest that for the balloon design used in this study, EarthSHAB is best suited for modeling the behavior of balloons with lightweight payloads that do not fly within or directly above clouds.

Lien, Jessica M. [Sandia National Laboratories, Al↗
DOE OSTI2022

Variational encoder geostatistical analysis (VEGAS) with an application to large scale riverine bathymetry

Estimation of riverbed profiles, also known as bathymetry, plays a vital role in many applications, such as safe and efficient inland navigation, prediction of bank erosion, land subsidence, and flood risk management. The high cost and complex logistics of direct bathymetry surveys, i.e, depth imaging, have encouraged the use of indirect measurements such as surface flow velocities. However, estimating high-resolution bathymetry from indirect measurements is an inverse problem that can be computationally challenging. Here, we propose a reduced-order model (ROM) based approach that utilizes a variational autoencoder (VAE), a type of deep neural network with a narrow layer in the middle, to compress bathymetry and flow velocity information and accelerate bathymetry inverse problems from flow velocity measurements. In our application, the shallow-water equations (SWE) with appropriate boundary conditions (BCs), e.g., the discharge and/or the free surface elevation, constitute the forward problem, to predict flow velocity. Then, ROMs of the SWEs are constructed on a nonlinear manifold of low dimensionality through a variational encoder and the bathymetry inversion problem is derived on the low-dimensional latent space in a Hierarchical Bayesian setting. Further, the reformulation allows variational inference with a small number (e.g., $\mathscr{O}$ (100) of ROM runs and efficient uncertainty quantification. We have tested our inversion approach on a one-mile reach of the Savannah River, GA, USA. Once the neural network is trained (offline stage), the proposed technique can perform the inversion operation orders of magnitude faster than traditional inversion methods that are commonly based on linear projections, such as principal component analysis (PCA), or the principal component geostatistical approach (PCGA). Furthermore, tests show that the algorithm can estimate the bathymetry with good accuracy even with sparse flow velocity measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of Potential Dose and Environmental Impacts from Proposed Testing at the INL Radiological Response Training Range

This assessment uses screening-level models to calculate potential environmental impacts from proposed tests at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Radiological Response Training Range (RRTR) site. Proposed tests could be conducted using 11 different radioactive material types that include K2O, LaBr3, KBr, Cu, Zr, F, Ga, Ga2O3, NaNO2, Ga-68, and Tc-99m. The tests could potentially release radioactive material to the atmosphere and radionuclides and other contaminants to the soil, which could leach into the unsaturated zone and migrate to the aquifer. Atmospheric transport of radionuclides to potential human receptors and time-integrated air concentrations were calculated with a Gaussian plume model and three years of hourly meteorological data. Potential surface-soil impacts were calculated with the computer program mixing-cell model (MCM). Groundwater impacts were calculated with the computer programs MCM and GWSCREEN. Radiological doses from potential atmospheric releases were calculated for public receptors off the INL Site and for workers at nearby INL facilities. Results were compared to regulatory dose limits. Maximum potential groundwater concentrations were estimated in the aquifer below the NSTR site and compared to drinking water standards or risk-based screening levels for resident tap water. Soil concentrations were calculated and compared to risk-based screening levels for workers and potential future residents. All impacts were estimated assuming 12 tests are conducted annually using all 11 material types for a period of 15 years. This document provides the resources to enable a subject matter expert in the field of environmental assessments to replicate the modeling and calculations. The methodology and parameters are presented in the text. All electronic files, including computer-code input, output, executable files, batch files, scripts, and spreadsheet files are contained in a zip file that can be accessed by selecting “Additional Information” (select Native File) in the INL Electronic Document Management System (EDMS). It is highly unlikely the test scenarios evaluated in this ECAR will adversely impact human health based on comparisons of calculated dose and concentration against regulatory standards and risk-based screening levels. Conservative estimates of dose to workers and the public from atmospheric transport of possible radionuclide releases are far below federal radiation protection standards. Conservative estimates of potential contaminant concentrations in groundwater are less than federal drinking water standards or screening levels. Predicted radionuclide concentrations in surface soils are below risk-based screening levels, except for Ge-68 (material Ga-68) for the worker. The Ge-68 soil concentration can be made less than the worker PRG, if the number of annual tests using Ga-68 is reduced from 12 to 6. However, the sum of ratios still exceeds one because of the high K-40 ratio. If the EF of the worker (number of days the worker is in the contaminated testing area) is reduced from 225 days/yr (default value for full time worker) to 112 days/yr, the Ge-68 ratio is less than one and the sum of ratios is less than one. Actual radiation doses and groundwater and surface-soil concentrations are likely to be much less than those calculated because of the conservative assumptions and parameters employed in the modeling. For example, atmospheric-transport calculations assume the entire inventory of each material type is readily released to the atmosphere and no plume deposition, depletion, or radioactive decay occurs during transport. The calculations also assume the same meteorological conditions (e.g., wind velocity, wind direction, stability class) that produce the maximum 95th percentile concentration (i.e., concentration representing the 95th percentile of a distribution of concentrations derived from 3 years of hourly meteorological data) at each receptor location are the same for all 12 tests during the year, and each receptor is assumed to be present during all 12 tests. The surface-soil assessment assumes the entire inventory of each test is deposited in the top 5 cm of soil. No atmospheric dispersal is assumed, and the radionuclides are subject only to leaching and radioactive decay. The groundwater-pathway modeling is conservative in that it is one-dimensional in the unsaturated zone (no lateral spreading/dilution) and assumes the entire inventory of contaminants infiltrates into the ground at the same location for every test. This is especially conservative for particulate radionuclides because they would have to dissolve or corrode first and some would be dispersed into the atmosphere. The groundwater receptor is also assumed to consume water directly from a hypothetical well positioned in the location of maximum concentration. In addition, conservative degradation rates were used, and volatilization was not considered for the nonradioactive chemical

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of Potential Dose and Environmental Impacts from Proposed Testing at the INL National Security Test Range

This assessment uses screening-level models to calculate potential environmental impacts from proposed tests at two locations at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) National Security Test Range (NSTR) site. Proposed tests could be conducted using 11 different radioactive material types that include K 2 O, LaBr 3 , KBr, Cu, Zr, F, Ga, Ga 2 O 3 , NaNO 2 , Ga-68, and Tc-99m. The tests could potentially release radioactive material to the atmosphere and radionuclides and other contaminants to the soil, which could leach into the unsaturated zone and migrate to the aquifer. Atmospheric transport of radionuclides to potential human receptors and time-integrated air concentrations were calculated with a Gaussian plume model and three years of hourly meteorological data. Potential surface-soil impacts were calculated with the computer program mixing-cell model (MCM). Groundwater impacts were calculated with the computer programs MCM and GWSCREEN. Radiological doses from potential atmospheric releases were calculated for public receptors off the INL Site and for workers at nearby INL facilities. Results were compared to regulatory dose limits. Maximum potential groundwater concentrations were estimated in the aquifer below the NSTR site and compared to drinking water standards or risk-based screening levels for resident tap water. Soil concentrations were calculated and compared to risk-based screening levels for workers and potential future residents. All impacts were estimated based on the assumption that 12 tests are conducted annually using all 11 material types for 15 years. This document provides the resources to enable a subject matter expert in the field of environmental assessments to replicate the modeling and calculations. The methodology and parameters are presented in the text. All electronic files, including computer-code input, output, executable files, batch files, scripts, and spreadsheet files, are contained in a zip file that can be accessed by selecting “Additional Information” (select Native File) in the INL Electronic Document Management System (EDMS). It is highly unlikely the test scenarios evaluated in this ECAR will adversely impact human health based on comparisons of calculated dose and concentration against regulatory standards and risk-based screening levels. Conservative estimates of dose to workers and the public from atmospheric transport of possible radionuclide releases are far below federal radiation protection standards. Conservative estimates of potential contaminant concentrations in groundwater are less than federal drinking water standards or screening levels. Predicted radionuclide concentrations in surface soils are below risk-based screening levels, except for Ge-68 (material Ga-68) for the worker. The Ge-68 soil concentration can be made less than the worker PRG, if the number of annual tests using Ga-68 is reduced from 12 to 6. However, the sum of ratios still exceeds one because of the high K-40 ratio. If the EF of the worker (number of days the worker is in the contaminated testing area) is reduced from 225 days/yr (default value for full time worker) to 112 days/yr, the Ge-68 ratio is less than one and the sum of ratios is less than one. Actual radiation doses and groundwater and surface-soil concentrations are likely to be much less than those calculated because of the conservative assumptions and parameters employed in the modeling. For example, atmospheric-transport calculations assume the entire inventory of each material type is readily released to the atmosphere and no plume deposition, depletion, or radioactive decay occurs during transport. The calculations also assume the same meteorological conditions (e.g., wind velocity, wind direction, stability class) that produce the maximum 95th percentile concentration (i.e., concentration representing the 95th percentile of a distribution of concentrations derived from 3 years of hourly meteorological data) at each receptor location are the same for all 12 tests during the year, and each receptor is assumed to be present during all 12 tests. The surface-soil assessment assumes the entire inventory of each test is deposited in the top 5 cm of soil. No atmospheric dispersal is assumed, and the radionuclides are subject only to leaching and radioactive decay. The groundwater-pathway modeling is conservative in that it is one-dimensional in the unsaturated zone (no lateral spreading/dilution) and assumes the entire inventory of contaminants infiltrates into the ground at the same location for every test. This is especially conservative for particulate radionuclides because they would have to dissolve or corrode first and some would be dispersed into the atmosphere. The groundwater receptor is also assumed to consume water directly from a hypothetical well positioned in the location of maximum concentration. In addition, conservative degradation rates were used, and volatilization was not considered for the nonradradioactive chemicals modeled. And finally, the calculations assume all 12 tests will be performed at the same place at both locations, and all 11 radioactive material types will be used for each test. This is conservative because it is anticipated that no more than two material types will be used per test.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep Sigma Point Processes-Assisted Chance-Constrained Power System Transient Stability Preventive Control

Here this paper proposes a deep sigma point processes (DSPP)-assisted chance-constrained power system transient stability preventive control method to deal with uncertain renewable energy and loads-induced stability risk. The traditional transient stability-constrained preventive control is reformulated as a chance-constrained optimization problem. To deal with the computational bottleneck of the time-domain simulation-based probabilistic transient stability assessment, the DSPP is developed. DSPP is a parametric Bayesian approach that allows us to predict system transient stability with high computational efficiency while accurately quantifying the confidence intervals of the predictions that can be used to inform system instability risk. To this end, with a given preset confidence probability, we embed DSPP into the primal dual interior point method to help solve the chance-constrained preventive control problem, where the corresponding Jacobian and Hessian matrices are derived. Comparison results with other existing methods show that the proposed method can significantly speed up preventive control while maintaining high accuracy and convergence

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

SSRS (Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator)

SSRS (Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator) is a generalizable, probabilistic, and predictive tool for wind energy developers, ecologists, wildlife managers and industry consultants to estimate the potential for soaring raptors to interact with operating wind turbines, without the need for site-specific data collection. Rapid expansion of wind energy development across the world has exposed the risk of turbine collisions for birds and bats. The risk to obligate soaring raptors such as golden eagles is of particular concern due to their small population and influence on ecological balance. Golden eagles rely heavily on updrafts to subsidize their flight, putting them in direct conflict with operational wind turbines that utilize the same wind resource. Understanding the behavior of soaring raptors with varying atmospheric conditions is crucial for predicting and mitigating the risk of turbine collision. This software contains a predictive movement model that simulates individual flight paths of golden eagles during updraft-subsidized long-distance flight, including migration. For a given set of atmospheric conditions, the model simulates thousands of eagles at turbine-scale spatial resolution (50m) to produce a relative presence density map. The simulated eagles rely on updrafts to pursue uninterrupted directional flight with minimal energy expenditure, following fluid-flow principles. The simulator includes a stochastic model of eagle behavior and a systematic method of accounting for spatiotemporal variations in atmospheric conditions. This framework only requires publicly available atmospheric data to estimate orographic and thermal updrafts, ensuring general usability.

Sandhu, Rimple↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Impact of Ethylenediaminetetraacetic Acid (EDTA) on the Sorption of Nd(III), Th{sup (IV)}, and U(VI) onto Dolomite in WIPP-Relevant Brines, GWB and ERDA-6 - 20356

Storage of legacy, transuranic waste at the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) requires accurate risk models for performance assessments. These models must predict the long-term fate and transport of contaminants in the WIPP and surrounding environment. Laboratory support is necessary for the development of an accurate model through better understanding of contaminant behavior in the WIPP. The WIPP is a deep geologic repository that is characterized by high ionic strength due to evaporite deposits in the Salado formation (porewaters up to 7.4 M). High concentrations of sodium chloride (NaCl), calcium chloride (CaCl{sub 2}), and magnesium chloride (MgCl{sub 2}) are particularly of concern due to their potential impact on solubility and ultimately transport of contaminants of concern. Additionally, ligands capable of forming strong complexes with metals are found in significant concentrations in the WIPP environment due to their disposal from waste processing and formation during degradation of repository components (e.g. cellulose degradation by calcium hydroxide in cement). Consequently, there is a need to investigate the fate and transport of contaminants in the WIPP environment with a focus on the effects of high ionic strength and strongly coordinating ligands. Contaminants of high concern include the actinides (U(VI), Pu(IV), and Am(III)). Laboratory support of the WIPP modeling efforts was provided by this research. A series of batch experiments were utilized to study the impact of ionic strength, contaminant concentration, and the presence of ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA) on the sorption of Nd(III), Th(IV), and U(VI) onto dolomite, a carbonate mineral found within the Culebra formation. The Culebra formation is the most transmissive layer above the WIPP, making transport of contaminants the most likely route in previous risk assessments. Two brines specifically designed to imitate conditions within the WIPP environment were used in these experiments. The U.S. Energy Research and Development Administration Well 6 (ERDA-6, 95%) brine simulates a low Mg environment, while the generic weep brine (GWB, 95%) simulates the WIPP environment with a high Mg concentration. Mg is added to the repository in the form of MgO as an engineered barrier and is naturally present in some formations. It is expected to scavenge carbonate from solutions decreasing formation of the highly soluble and competitive uranium-carbonate complexes. EDTA is used during manipulations of nuclear materials due to its ability to form strong, stable complexes with the actinides and may be found in high concentrations (up to 0.08 mM) within the WIPP as waste canisters degrade. Further, it may provide additional avenues for unwanted transport of contaminants. Nd(III) and Th(IV) were used as stable analogues of Am(III) and Pu(IV), respectively, to represent the most common oxidation states of actinides in the WIPP environment in addition to U(VI). The potential for colloid formation was also investigated with low and high concentrations of contaminants (10 and 1000 μg/L) using three size-dependent particle separation steps. The results of this research provide a better understanding of potential behavior of actinides in the presence of EDTA and within WIPP-relevant brines. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

A time-varying vulnerability index for COVID-19 in New Mexico, USA using generalized propensity scores

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has highlighted systemic inequities in the United States and resulted in a larger burden of negative social outcomes for marginalized communities. New Mexico, a state in the southwestern US, has a unique population with a large racial minority population and a high rate of poverty that may make communities more vulnerable to negative social outcomes from COVID-19. To identify which communities may be at the highest relative risk, we created a county-level vulnerability index. After the first COVID-19 case was reported in New Mexico on March 11, 2020, we fit a generalized propensity score model that incorporates sociodemographic factors to predict county-level viral exposure and thus, the generic risk to negative social outcomes such as unemployment or mental health impacts. We used four static sociodemographic covariates important for the state of New Mexico—population, poverty, household size, and minority population—and weekly cumulative case counts to iteratively run our model each week and normalize the exposure score to create a time-varying vulnerability index. We found the relative vulnerability between counties varied in the first eight weeks from the initial COVID-19 case before stabilizing. This framework for creating a location-specific vulnerability index in response to an ongoing disaster may be used as a quick, deployable metric to inform health policy decisions such as allocating state resources to the county level.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗