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Development of Head Injury Assessment Reference Values Based on NASA Injury Modeling

NASA is developing a new capsule-based, crewed vehicle that will land in the ocean, and the space agency desires to reduce the risk of injury from impact during these landings. Because landing impact occurs for each flight and the crew might need to perform egress tasks, current injury assessment reference values (IARV) were deemed insufficient. Because NASCAR occupant restraint systems are more effective than the systems used to determine the current IARVs and are similar to NASA s proposed restraint system, an analysis of NASCAR impacts was performed to develop new IARVs that may be more relevant to NASA s context of vehicle landing operations. Head IARVs associated with race car impacts were investigated by completing a detailed analysis of all of the 2002-2008 NASCAR impact data. Specific inclusion and exclusion criteria were used to select 4071 impacts from the 4015 recorder files provided (each file could contain multiple impact events). Of the 4071 accepted impacts, 274 were selected for numerical simulation using a custom NASCAR restraint system and Humanetics Hybrid-III 50th percentile numerical dummy model in LS-DYNA. Injury had occurred in 32 of the 274 selected impacts, and 27 of those injuries involved the head. A majority of the head injuries were mild concussions with or without brief loss of consciousness. The 242 non-injury impacts were randomly selected and representative of the range of crash dynamics present in the total set of 4071 impacts. Head dynamics data (head translational acceleration, translational change in velocity, rotational acceleration, rotational velocity, HIC-15, HIC-36, and the Head 3ms clip) were filtered according to SAE J211 specifications and then transformed to a log scale. The probability of head injury was estimated using a separate logistic regression analysis for each log-transformed predictor candidate. Using the log transformation constrains the estimated probability of injury to become negligible as IARVs approach zero. For the parameters head translational acceleration, head translational velocity change, head rotational acceleration, HIC-15, and HIC-36, conservative values (in the lower 95% confidence interval) that gave rise to a 5% risk of any injury occurring were estimated as 40.0 G, 7.9 m/s, 2200 rad/s2, 98.4, and 77.4 respectively. Because NASA is interested in the consequence of any particular injury on the ability of the crew to perform egress tasks, the head injuries that occurred in the NASCAR dataset were classified according to a NASA-developed scale (Classes I - III) for operationally relevant injuries, which classifies injuries on the basis of their operational significance. Additional analysis of the data was performed to determine the probability of each injury class occurring, and this was estimated using an ordered probit model. For head translational acceleration, head translational velocity change, head rotational acceleration, head rotational velocity, HIC-36, and head 3ms clip, conservative values of IARVs that produced a 5% risk of Class II injury were estimated as 50.7 G, 9.5 m/s, 2863 rad/s2, 11.0 rad/s, 30.3, and 46.4 G respectively. The results indicate that head IARVs developed from the NASCAR dataset may be useful to protect crews during landing impact.

Somers, Jeffrey T.↗

Heart Rate Responses to Unaided Orion Side Hatch Egress in the Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory

NASA is developing the Orion capsule as a vehicle for transporting crewmembers to and from the International Space Station (ISS) and for future human space exploration missions. Orion and other commercial vehicles are designed to splash down in the ocean where nominally support personnel will assist crewmembers in egressing the vehicle. However, off-nominal scenarios will require crewmembers to egress the vehicle unaided, deploy survival equipment, and ingress a life raft. PURPOSE: To determine the heart rate (HR) responses to unaided Orion side hatch egress and raft ingress as a part of the NASA Crew Survival Engineering Team's evaluation of the PORT Orion mockup in the Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL). METHODS: Nineteen test subjects, including four astronauts (N=19, 14 males/5 females, 38.6+/-8.4 y, 174.4+/-9.6 cm, 75.7+/-13.1 kg), completed a graded maximal test on a cycle ergometer to determine VO2peak and HRpeak and were divided into five crews of four members each; one subject served on two crews. Each crew was required to deploy a life raft, egress the Orion vehicle from the side hatch, and ingress the life raft with two 8 kg emergency packs per crew. Each crew performed this activity one to three times; a total of ten full egresses were completed. Subjects wore a suit that was similar in form, mass, and function to the Modified Advanced Crew Escape Suit (MACES) including helmet, gloves, boots, supplemental O2 bottles, and a CO2-inflated life preserver (approx.18 kg); subjects began each trial seated supine in the PORT Orion mockup with seat belts and mockup O2 and communication connections and ended each trial with all four crewmembers inside the life raft. RESULTS: VO2peak was 40.8+/-6.8 mL/kg/min (3.1+/-0.7 L/min); HRpeak was 181+/-10 bpm. Total egress time across trials was 5.0+/-1.6 min (range: 2.8-8.0 min); all subjects were able to successfully complete all trials. Average maximum HR at activity start, at the hatch opening, in the water, and in the raft, was 108, 137, 147, and 153 bpm, respectively; these values corresponded to 59+/-10%, 73+/-8%, 82+/-3%, and 84+/-6% of HRpeak, respectively. The highest HRs were seen after raft ingress and ranged from 72-99% HRpeak. Across all trials, cumulative averages of 5.4, 3.0, 1.1, and 0.2 min were spent at HRs >60%, >70%, >80%, and >90% HRpeak, respectively. CONCLUSION: Unaided Orion side hatch egress in the NBL is a relatively short-duration activity that elicits a high HR response for several min. Although all crewmembers successfully completed this activity, additional factors such as high seas, poor visibility, an incapacitated crewmember, neurovestibular perturbation, and neuromuscular deconditioning characteristic of a true operational environment may increase the physiologic demand (or decrease crewmembers' physiologic capacity) of unaided Orion side hatch egress. Additionally, landing conditions may require the crewmembers to egress from the top hatch, which is expected to be even more physiologically demanding; this condition will be evaluated in subsequent collaborative testing with the NASA Crew Survival Engineering Team.

English, Kirk L.↗

A Rigid Mid-Lift-to-Drag Ratio Approach to Human Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing

Current NASA Human Mars architectures require delivery of approximately 20 metric tons of cargo to the surface in a single landing. A proposed vehicle type for performing the entry, descent, and landing at Mars associated with this architecture is a rigid, enclosed, elongated lifting body shape that provides a higher lift-to-drag ratio (L/D) than a typical entry capsule, but lower than a typical winged entry vehicle (such as the Space Shuttle Orbiter). A rigid Mid-L/D shape has advantages for large mass Mars EDL, including loads management, range capability during entry, and human spaceflight heritage. Previous large mass Mars studies have focused more on symmetric and/or circular cross-section Mid-L/D shapes such as the ellipsled. More recent work has shown performance advantages for non-circular cross section shapes. This paper will describe efforts to design a rigid Mid-L/D entry vehicle for Mars which shows mass and performance improvements over previous Mid-L/D studies. The proposed concept, work to date and evolution, forward path, and suggested future strategy are described.

Cerimele, Christopher J.↗

Waterhammer Testing and Modeling of the Ares I Upper Stage Reaction Control System

NASA's Ares I rocket is the agency's first step in completing the goals of the Constellation Program, which plans to deliver a new generation of space explorers into low earth orbit for future missions to the International Space Station, the moon, and other destinations within the solar system. Ares I is a two-stage rocket topped by the Orion crew capsule and its service module. The launch vehicle's First Stage is a single, five-segment reusable solid rocket booster (RSRB), derived from the Space Shuttle Program's four segment RSRB. The vehicle's Upper Stage, being designed at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), is propelled by a single J-2X Main Engine fueled with liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen. During active Upper Stage flight of the Ares I launch vehicle, the Upper Stage Reaction Control System (US ReCS) will perform attitude control operations for the vehicle. The US ReCS will provide three-axis attitude control capability (roll, pitch, and yaw) for the Upper Stage while the J-2X is not firing and roll control capability while the engine is firing. Because of the requirements imposed upon the system, the design must accommodate rapid pulsing of multiple thrusters simultaneously to maintain attitude control. In support of these design activities and in preparation for Critical Design Review, analytical models of the US ReCS propellant feed system have been developed using the Thermal Hydraulic Library of MSC.EASY5 v.2008, herein referred to as EASY5. EASY5 is a commercially available fluid system modeling package with significant history of modeling space propulsion systems. In Fall 2009, a series of development tests were conducted at MSFC on a cold-flow test article for the US ReCS, herein referred to as System Development Test Article (SDTA). A subset of those tests performed were aimed at examining the effects of waterhammer on a flight-representative system and to ensure that those effects could be quantified with analytical models and incorporated into the design of the flight system. This paper presents an overview of the test article and the test approach, along with a discussion of the analytical modeling methodology. In addition, the results of that subset of development tests, along with analytical model pre-test predictions and post-test model correlations, will also be discussed in detail.

Williams, J. Hunter↗

From Project Mercury to the Breadboard Project

NASA's Project Mercury began as a response to the cold war with the Soviet Union and had a number of goals: to place a manned spacecraft in orbital flight around the earth; to investigate man's performance capabilities and his ability to function in the environment of space and to recover the man and the spacecraft safely. One aspect of preflight testing included the use of an altitude chamber to test each capsule and allow the astronauts to engage in simulated missions within a vacuum environment. Flash forward to 1985. The Biomedical Operations and Research Office at Kennedy Space Center proposed to use the chamber for an unusual mission under what was known as the Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS)Breadboard Project. During 1985 into 1987, the chamber was converted to an environmentally-controlled, hydroponic plant growth chamber termed the "Biomass Production Chamber" and operated through late 2001.

Dreschel, Thomas W.↗

SLS Test Stand Site Selection

Test site selection is a critical element of the design, development and production of a new system. With the advent of the new Space Launch System (SLS), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) had a number of test site selection decisions that needed to be made early enough in the Program to support the planned Launch Readiness Date (LRD). This case study focuses on decisions that needed to be made in 2011 and 2012 in preparation for the April 2013 DPMC decision about where to execute the Main Propulsion Test that is commonly referred to as "Green Run." Those decisions relied upon cooperative analysis between the Program, the Test Lab and Center Operations. The SLS is a human spaceflight vehicle designed to carry a crew farther into space than humans have previously flown. The vehicle consists of four parts: the crew capsule, the upper stage, the core stage, and the first stage solid rocket boosters. The crew capsule carries the astronauts, while the upper stage, the core stage, and solid rocket boosters provide thrust for the vehicle. In other words, the stages provide the "lift" part of the lift vehicle. In conjunction with the solid rocket boosters, the core stage provides the initial "get-off-the-ground" thrust to the vehicle. The ignition of the four core stage engines and two solid rocket boosters is the first step in the launch portion of the mission. The solid rocket boosters burn out after about 2 minutes of flight, and are then jettisoned. The core stage provides thrust until the vehicle reaches a specific altitude and speed, at which point the core stage is shut off and jettisoned, and the upper stage provides vehicle thrust for subsequent mission trajectories. The integrated core stage primarily consists of a liquid oxygen tank, a liquid hydrogen tank, and the four core stage engines. For the SLS program, four RS-25 engines were selected as the four core stage engines. The RS-25 engine is the same engine that was used for Space Shuttle. The test plan for the integrated core stage was broken down into several segments: Component testing, system level testing, and element level testing. In this context, components are items such as valves, controllers, sensors, etc. Systems are items such as an entire engine, a tank, or the outer stage body. The core stage itself is considered to be an element. The rocket engines are also considered an element. At the program level, it was decided to perform a single green run test on the integrated core stage prior to shipment of it to Kennedy Space Center (KSC) for use in the EM-1 test flight of the SLS vehicle. A green run test is the first live fire of the new integrated core stage and engine elements - without boosters of course. The SLS Program had to decide where to perform SLS green run testing.

Crowe, Kathryn↗

The Lightcraft project: Flight technology for a hypersonic mass transit system

Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute has been developing transatmospheric 'Lightcraft' technology aimed at creating an efficient, economically affordable, hypersonic mass transportation system. The system utilizes laser-energized airbreathing engines to accelerate minimum-volume passenger capsules. The system gains a high level of reliability by using remote 'centralized' space power sources, e.g., satellite solar power stations. The most critical portion of the Lightcraft's acceleration trajectory involves flight propulsion at hypersonic velocities within the Earth's atmosphere, using a 'Magneto-Hydro-Dynamic (MHD) Fanjet' mode. Of all the propulsion modes proposed for the Lightcraft's combined-cycle engine, the MHD-Fanjet mode has received the least critical inquiry, largely because of its complexity. During the 1991-1992 academic year, Rensselaer's ADP teams produced a detailed conceptual design for the MHD-Fanjet engine, including the specific details of its integration with the other three propulsive modes. To facilitate this process, students built a full-scale mockup of a 1/12th section of this annular engine, complete with a working model of the shroud translation system. The class also made preliminary design calculations for the double-dipole, 'cuspfield' superconducting magnets that provide the external magnetic field needed by the MHD air accelerator, as well as for an onboard microwave power system to enhance the electrical conductivity of the air plasma working fluid. In addition, a large hypersonic model of the MHD accelerator was designed for future tests in RPI's Hypersonic Shock Tunnel in order to validate present analytical performance models. Another group continued design work on a full-sized prototype of a one-person 'Mercury Lightcraft' (a transatmospheric flight simulator), with major emphasis on the detailed design of the major structure, robotic landing gear, and exterior aeroshell.

Myrabo, Leik↗

Study of toluene stability for an Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) space-based power system

The design, fabrication, assembly, and endurance operation of a dynamic test loop, built to evaluate the thermal stability of a proposed Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) working fluid, is discussed. The test fluid, toluene, was circulated through a heater, simulated turbine, regenerator, condenser and pump to duplicate an actual ORC system. The maximum nominal fluid temperature, 750 F, was at the turbine simulator inlet. Samples of noncondensible gases and liquid toluene were taken periodically during the test. The samples were analyzed to identify the degradation products formed and the quantity of these products. From these data it was possible to determine the degradation rate of the working fluid and the generation rate of noncondensible gases. A further goal of this work was to relate the degradation observed in the dynamic operating loop to degradation obtained in isothermal capsule tests. This relationship was the basis for estimating the power loop degradation in the Space Station Organic Rankine Cycle system.

Havens, Vance↗

A Tribute to National Aeronautics and Space Administration Minority Astronauts: Past and Present

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has been selecting astronauts since 1959. The first group was called the "Mercury Seven." These seven men were chosen because of their performance as military officers and test pilots, their character, their intelligence, and their guts. Six of these seven flew in the Mercury capsule. Several additional groups were chosen between 1959 and 1978. It was an exciting period in the American space program. Many of these astronauts participated in the Gemini and Apollo programs, traveled and walked on the Moon, docked with the Russians during the Apollo-Soyuz Test Project, and occupied America's first space station, the Skylab. With the onset of the Space Shuttle, a new era began. The astronauts selected in 19 78 broke the traditional mold. For the first time, minorities and women became part of America's astronaut corps. Since then, eight additional groups have been selected, with an increasing mix of African American, Hispanic, Latino, Asian/Pacific Islander, and Native American men and women. These astronauts will continue the American space program into the new millennium by continuing flights on the Space Shuttle and participating in the construction and occupancy of the International Space Station. These astronauts, and those who will be chosen in the future, will lead America and its partners to future voyages beyond the influence of Earth's gravity.

Source record↗

NASA Space Launch System Completes Key Hot Fire Test and Begins Vehicle Integration

The Moon is again in reach. NASA and its commercial and international partners are on the way back. The team is working to land the first woman and the first person of color on the planetary body. NASA and its partners made significant progress towards that goal in the latter half of 2020 and the first half of 2021, including on the agency’s Space Launch System (SLS) rocket – a key part of the Artemis program. The SLS core stage for the Artemis I mission – the first launch of SLS and an uncrewed Orion capsule – completed the Green Run test series and was successfully mated with the SLS twin solid rocket boosters on the mobile launcher at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). All of the major systems for Artemis I are at KSC for assembly, integration, and launch, targeted for late 2021. Work also continued on SLS hardware for Artemis II, which will be the first flight of crew on Orion and SLS. Work progressed on core stage components, booster segments, and other hardware for Artemis III and future missions. This paper will detail the progress made.

John Honeycutt↗

Benefits, Consequences, and Uncertainties of Conventional (Exercise) Countermeasure Approaches

This presentation will review the pros, cons, and uncertainties of using exercise countermeasures in hypothetical long duration exploration missions. The use of artificial gravity and exercise will be briefly discussed. One benefit to continued use of exercise is related to our extensive experience with spaceflight exercise hardware and programming. Exercise has been a part of each space mission dating back to the 1960's when simple isometric and bungee exercises were performed in the Gemini capsule. Over the next 50 years, exercise hardware improved cumulating in today's ISS suite of exercise equipment: Cycle Ergometer with Vibration Isolation and Stabilization System (CEVIS), Treadmill (T2) and Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED). Today's exercise equipment is the most robust ever to be flown in space and allows the variety and intensity of exercise that might reasonably be expected to maintain muscle mass and function, bone density and cardiovascular fitness. A second benefit is related to the large body of research literature on exercise training. There is a considerable body of supporting research literature including >40,000 peer reviewed research articles on exercise training in humans. A third benefit of exercise is its effectiveness. With the addition of T2 and ARED to our ISS exercise suite, crew member outcomes on standard medical tests have improved. Additionally exercise has other positive side effects such as stress relief, possible improvement of immune function, improved sleep, etc. Exercise is not without its consequences. The major cons to performance of in‐flight exercise are the time and equipment required. Currently crew are scheduled 2.5 hrs/day for exercise and there is considerable cost to develop, fly and maintain exercise hardware. While no major injuries have been reported on ISS, there is always some risk of injury with any form of exercise There are several uncertainties going forward; these relate mostly to the development of small compact robust effective exercise devices for the next generation of space vehicles. It is becoming increasingly apparent that high intensity exercise is required for maintenance of fitness and functional capability and so future hardware will need to be developed, tested and implemented that allow for a wide variety of exercise, at high intensity while likely involving low mass, volume and power. There are many unanswered issues related to the minimum number and type of exercise devices required for exploration, optimizing exercise prescriptions for these devices, whether a treadmill is absolutely required, and even whether any single countermeasure can adequately protect muscle, bone, cardiovascular and sensorimotor function.

Ploutz-Snyder, Lori↗

Inerting and atmospheres

It is argued that fires are dependent primarily on the concentration of oxygen, whereas life is dependent on the partial pressure of oxygen. It follows that in an inhabited capsule it should be possible to exercise a certain amount of willful control over fire and still maintain habitability by proper selection of the composition of the atmosphere. This leads to two concepts in the control of fires in confined spaces by controlling atmospheric composition: the first, to lower the overall potential hazard by maintaining the percent of oxygen in the capsule below that of air, and second, to provide for the emergency extinguishment of a fire by sudden flooding with nitrogen. Several relevant charts and graphs are presented.

Carhart, Homer W.↗

Lessons Learned From the Construction of a Portable Cleanroom for NASA OSIRIS-REx Mission Deintegration

NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) Infrastructure and Astromaterials Acquisition & Curation Office completed construction and commissioning of the OSIRIS-REx (OREx) Deintegration portable cleanroom at the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR). The new portable cleanroom was designed to receive the OREx sample return capsule from the landing point on the range to an ISO7 environment. Scientists used the portable clean-room to deintegrate the sample canister from the sample return capsule. Once separated, the sample canister was put in a container under nitrogen purge for transportation to B31 at the Johnson Space Center for astromaterial sample extraction, preliminary analysis, and long-term curation. The portable cleanroom was built by a subcontractor at their facility and then deconstructed to be transported to the remote location at UTTR. Since construction was completed in a remote location all tools and materials had to be transported from contractor site in Dallas, TX. The cleanroom was constructed within an existing facility, which provided conditioned air, electric power, and protection from the elements. Careful coordination was required between the host facility, cleanroom contractor, mission scientists, and JSC facilities and curation personnel. An existing anteroom at JSC was transported to UTTR and added to the portable cleanroom after there was concern about contamination without one for personnel entry/exit. The scientific study of organics is critical for the mission, so a stringent contamination control plan was implemented for low organics. Given these mission requirements the cleanroom construction materials were carefully selected to not hinder the scientific search for amino acids and the study of organics in the samples. The same cleanroom contractor that built the long-term astromaterial curation cleanroom back at JSC Houston, TX was selected to build the portable cleanroom and instructed to use the same materials. The cleanroom had double doors to open and allow the sample return capsule to fit into the cleanroom on its stand and be transferred to a clean stand already in the cleanroom. The portable cleanroom successfully completed its mission and the sample canister was safely deintegrated and transported to JSC under nitrogen purge.

astromaterials curation↗

Portable Cleanroom for NASA OSIRIS-REx Mission Deintegration

NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) Infrastructure and Astromaterials Acquisition & Curation Office completed construction and commissioning of the OSIRIS-REx (OREx) Deintegration portable cleanroom at the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR). The new portable cleanroom was designed to receive the OREx sample return capsule from the landing point on the range to an ISO7 environment. Scientists used the portable clean-room to deintegrate the sample canister from the sample return capsule. Once separated, the sample canister was put in a container under nitrogen purge for transportation to B31 at the Johnson Space Center for astromaterial sample extraction, preliminary analysis, and long-term curation. The portable cleanroom was built by a subcontractor at their facility and then deconstructed to be transported to the remote location at UTTR. Since construction was completed in a remote location all tools and materials had to be transported from contractor site in Dallas, TX. The cleanroom was constructed within an existing facility, which provided conditioned air, electric power, and protection from the elements. Careful coordination was required between the host facility, cleanroom contractor, mission scientists, and JSC facilities and curation personnel. An existing anteroom at JSC was transported to UTTR and added to the portable cleanroom after there was concern about contamination without one for personnel entry/exit. The scientific study of organics is critical for the mission, so a stringent contamination control plan was implemented for low organics. Given these mission requirements the cleanroom construction materials were carefully selected to not hinder the scientific search for amino acids and the study of organics in the samples. The same cleanroom contractor that built the long-term astromaterial curation cleanroom back at JSC Houston, TX was selected to build the portable cleanroom and instructed to use the same materials. The cleanroom had double doors to open and allow the sample return capsule to fit into the cleanroom on its stand and be transferred to a clean stand already in the cleanroom. The portable cleanroom successfully completed its mission and the sample canister was safely deintegrated and transported to JSC under nitrogen purge.

astromaterials curation↗

EFFECTS OF HIGH G CONDITIONS ON PILOT PERFORMANCE

The general development trend in space vehicle design suggests the desirability of maximally using the occupant to both control capsule attitude and to monitor vehicle systems during the boost (and reentry) acceleration phases, as well as during orbital flight. Consequently, much more information is needed concerning man's ability to perform certain control functions under conditions in which he is exposed to accelerations which approach not only his physiological tolerance limits, but also his performance tolerance limits. In addition to the need for more data concerning the acceleration stress that man can endure and still retain the ability to perform control functions, there is a need to know specifically the nature of performance errors which can arise, not only as the direct result of acceleration, but also as secondary effects of acceleration inter acting with other conditions such as the type of control task, the type of control device, the damping and stability parameters, and the pilot's physiological endurance8 . Current concern over the performance capabilities of the human pilot immersed in certain acceleration environments is well founded since there are very few experimental reports describing the effects of these conditions on performance. The present paper attempts to summarize some of the results of recent studies conducted at the Aviation Medical Acceleration Laboratory (AMAL) in which specific pilot performance capabilities were studied under several conditions of acceleration stress.

Gravity↗

A Reliable Earth Return System for Safe Recovery of Mars Samples

The objective of a Mars sample return mission is to bring selected Mars surface materials to Earth. Numerous approaches for the Earth-return segment have been analyzed including propulsive or aerocapture return to low-Earth orbit followed by Space Shuttle rendezvous and direct entry. Of these approaches, ballistic entry of a small capsule terminating in a ground landing has been shown to be the lowest risk strategy. Over the past two years, significant work has been performed towards development of a robust direct entry vehicle for Mars sample return. In June 1999, the NASA Planetary Protection Officer provided initial guidance to the former Mars Sample Return Project. The sample return phase of the mission was assigned a restricted Earth return planetary protection classification. The draft mission requirement states that the total mean probability of release of unsterilized Mars material into the Earth;s biosphere must be less than 1.0E-06 (1 in a million). This strict requirement drives the approach and design of the Earth return system. To meet this requirement, selection of the Earth return strategy and development of the Earth return system must be guided by risk, not performance, based decisions. An initial Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) was performed to address the direct entry Earth return system containment assurance reliability and to identify high-risk elements of this system. The results of this PRA identified risk elements that include thermal protection system performance during entry, spin-eject orientation and aerodynamic stability during entry, structural integrity under atmospheric deceleration and impact loads, and tracking/recovery of this system. This initial probabilistic risk quantification demonstrates that, with the proper development program, a prototypical direct entry design can satisfy the containment assurance reliability requirement. Through the current Mars Sample Return Advanced Technology Development effort, an extensive design, analysis, and test program is presently proceeding with the aim of reducing the containment assurance risk of this system. This technology development effort, guided by a continuing PRA, focuses on key risk areas of a direct entry Earth return system including: the thermal protection system, impact dynamics, structural performance, aerodynamic stability, and ground recovery. This development program will culminate in a system validation flight test, 1-2 years prior to launch of the flight system. This flight test would include the launch, entry, and recovery of a full-scale Earth return system, as a scientific validation of the key risk elements to verify nominal design performance. The results of the initial PRA suggested several dominant failure sequences that can be validated in a flight test. These include: demonstrating the thermal protection system reliability and performance during entry, demonstrating the spin-eject orientation and aero-dynamic stability during entry, demonstrating the structural integrity under atmospheric deceleration and impact loads, and demonstrating tracking and recovery of the Earth return system. This single test will directly address over 50% of the total containment assurance risk elements. This presentation will begin by presenting the relative risk of various Earth return strategies. The results of the initial probabilistic risk assessment will be presented followed by a discussion of the development accomplishments and plans for demonstration of a highly reliable direct entry Earth return system.

Braun, R.↗

Conceptual Launch Vehicle and Spacecraft Design for Risk Assessment

One of the most challenging aspects of developing human space launch and exploration systems is minimizing and mitigating the many potential risk factors to ensure the safest possible design while also meeting the required cost, weight, and performance criteria. In order to accomplish this, effective risk analyses and trade studies are needed to identify key risk drivers, dependencies, and sensitivities as the design evolves. The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center (ARC) develops advanced risk analysis approaches, models, and tools to provide such meaningful risk and reliability data throughout vehicle development. The goal of the project presented in this memorandum is to design a generic launch 7 vehicle and spacecraft architecture that can be used to develop and demonstrate these new risk analysis techniques without relying on other proprietary or sensitive vehicle designs. To accomplish this, initial spacecraft and launch vehicle (LV) designs were established using historical sizing relationships for a mission delivering four crewmembers and equipment to the International Space Station (ISS). Mass-estimating relationships (MERs) were used to size the crew capsule and launch vehicle, and a combination of optimization techniques and iterative design processes were employed to determine a possible two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO) launch trajectory into a 350-kilometer orbit. Primary subsystems were also designed for the crewed capsule architecture, based on a 24-hour on-orbit mission with a 7-day contingency. Safety analysis was also performed to identify major risks to crew survivability and assess the system's overall reliability. These procedures and analyses validate that the architecture's basic design and performance are reasonable to be used for risk trade studies. While the vehicle designs presented are not intended to represent a viable architecture, they will provide a valuable initial platform for developing and demonstrating innovative risk assessment capabilities.

Launch Vehicle↗

Effect of Pressure on Trace Element Activity Coefficients in Metal-Silicate Systems

The partitioning of trace elements between metal and silicate melts serves as the foundation for understanding the differentiation of a planetary body into a metallic core and silicate mantle. Element activity influences metal-silicate partitioning behavior. Activity coefficients are directly dependent on composition and temperature, and can be indirectly dependent on oxygen fugacity and pressure. Distinguishing the effect of pressure from other variables on the activity coefficients and partitioning is important for understanding the chemical evolution of different planetary bodies during differentiation. In this study, we investigated the influence of pressure on the activity coefficients of Cu, Mo, Pd, Pt, As, Sb, and Bi in Fe-Si metallic liquids. All of these elements exhibit moderate to high activity coefficients in Fe-Si liquids at low pressure, which significantly controls their metal-silicate partitioning behavior. Identifying whether this strong dependence persists at higher pressures is critical to modeling and understanding the chemical consequences of core formation. New experiments at 10 GPa were used to derive activity coefficients for these metals which can be compared to activity coefficients determined at 1 GPa. Experiments were conducted at 10 GPa and 2373K using a 10/5 assembly in the 880-ton multi-anvil press at NASA Johnson Space Center. The standard 10/5 COMPRES assembly was slightly modified to accommodate a sample capsule machined from single-crystal MgO that minimizes melt percolation out of the sample volume during the experiment. Experiment starting materials were comprised of 70 wt.% Knippa basalt and 30 wt.% metal. The metal mixture (~85 wt.% Fe) was created by adding the elements of interest (Cu, Mo, Pd, Pt, As, Sb, Bi) to Fe metal powder. Varied amounts of Si metal (0-10 wt.% Si) were added to the metal-silicate mixtures to generate a systematic series of starting materials. For each element, an epsilon interaction parameter in Fe-Si liquid was derived from the results of our 0-10 wt.% Si metal series. To investigate whether pressure influences the trace element activity coefficients in the 1-10 GPa pressure range, we compared our results at 10 GPa to those at 1-4 GPa [1-3]. Our results can also be directly compared to interaction parameters for Au, P, V, Mn, Ga, Zn, Cd, Sn, W, Pb, and Nb previously determined at 10 GPa and 2373K following the same methods [4]. Combined, this suite of interaction parameters will directly inform metal-silicate partitioning between 1 and 10 GPa, and assess whether these values can be extrapolated to modeling differentiation processes at pressures >10 GPa.

Kelsey Prissel↗