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DOE OSTI2020

Four Theories of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation

Abstract Studies of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) have progressed considerably during the past decades in observations, numerical modeling, and theoretical understanding. Many theoretical attempts have been made to identify the most essential processes responsible for the existence of the MJO. Criteria are proposed to separate a hypothesis from a theory (based on the first principles with quantitative and testable assumptions, able to predict quantitatively the fundamental scales and eastward propagation of the MJO). Four MJO theories are selected to be summarized and compared in this article: the skeleton theory, moisture‐mode theory, gravity‐wave theory, and trio‐interaction theory of the MJO. These four MJO theories are distinct from each other in their key assumptions, parameterized processes, and, particularly, selection mechanisms for the zonal spatial scale, time scale, and eastward propagation of the MJO. The comparison of the four theories and more recent development in MJO dynamical approaches lead to a realization that theoretical thinking of the MJO is diverse and understanding of MJO dynamics needs to be further advanced.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

On the Emergence of Human Influence on Surface Air Temperature Changes Over India

Human activities in terms of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and aerosols resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels have been shown to have affected the temperature of the Earth on global and continental scales. The surface air temperature (TAS) over India has also been observed to be increasing over the last 100 years. Understanding the underlying causes of regional climate change over India can help in developing appropriate mitigation and adaptation strategies. Differentiating signals of externally forced climate changes from the noise of natural internal variability generally becomes more difficult as spatial scale reduces. Therefore detecting and attributing the influence of external forcings such as GHGs and aerosols is harder at local and regional scales. In this study, we applied a detection and attribution (D&A) method to study annual and seasonal mean TAS over the Indian region. We found that the observed warming over India from 1906 to 2005 cannot be explained by natural climate variability alone. We found that the warming is largely driven by the increase in GHGs, and partially offset by regional anthropogenic emissions of aerosols. These results were confirmed for the shorter 1956–2005 period, but results were sensitive to the choice of observational data set. Furthermore, the changes cannot be explained by internal climate variability or natural external forcings alone, but are compatible with the responses to combined anthropogenic GHG and aerosol forcings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Spectroscopy-based isotopic (δ 13 C) analysis for high spatial resolution of carbon exchange in the rhizosphere

The rhizosphere is a highly dynamic zone bridging plant roots with needed nutrient resources in soil. While the rhizosphere may be small, it has a disproportionally large impact on plant success and biomass production. A suite of rhizosphere-hosted microbial and geochemical interactions facilitate nutrient acquisition by plant roots, and, in turn, the roots stimulate these processes by supplying organic carbon into the rhizosphere. The small physical dimensions of the rhizosphere, however, can constrain efforts to elucidate key carbon exchange processes and their spatial extent and localization. We present a method for spatially resolved δ 13 C analysis of rhizosphere samples by coupling laser ablation (LA) sampling with isotopic analysis using capillary absorption spectroscopy (CAS) which differs from conventional mass spectrometer (MS) approaches. The CAS system has high sensitivity (requires fewer nanomoles of CO 2 per analysis) than comparable MS systems, which enables reduced sample size requirements to thereby improve spatial resolution (from 25 μm to as low as a projected 5 μm spatial resolution). We demonstrate the utility of CAS using rhizosphere samples from switchgrass plants exposed to 13 CO 2 . As a result, this technique will provide a capability for tracking the extent and spatial distribution of root exudate into the rhizosphere at highly detailed spatial scales.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Overview of the MOSAiC expedition: Snow and sea ice

Year-round observations of the physical snow and ice properties and processes that govern the ice pack evolution and its interaction with the atmosphere and the ocean were conducted during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition of the research vessel Polarstern in the Arctic Ocean from October 2019 to September 2020. This work was embedded into the interdisciplinary design of the 5 MOSAiC teams, studying the atmosphere, the sea ice, the ocean, the ecosystem, and biogeochemical processes. The overall aim of the snow and sea ice observations during MOSAiC was to characterize the physical properties of the snow and ice cover comprehensively in the central Arctic over an entire annual cycle. This objective was achieved by detailed observations of physical properties and of energy and mass balance of snow and ice. By studying snow and sea ice dynamics over nested spatial scales from centimeters to tens of kilometers, the variability across scales can be considered. On-ice observations of in situ and remote sensing properties of the different surface types over all seasons will help to improve numerical process and climate models and to establish and validate novel satellite remote sensing methods; the linkages to accompanying airborne measurements, satellite observations, and results of numerical models are discussed. We found large spatial variabilities of snow metamorphism and thermal regimes impacting sea ice growth. We conclude that the highly variable snow cover needs to be considered in more detail (in observations, remote sensing, and models) to better understand snow-related feedback processes. The ice pack revealed rapid transformations and motions along the drift in all seasons. The number of coupled ice–ocean interface processes observed in detail are expected to guide upcoming research with respect to the changing Arctic sea ice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Characterizing How Meteorological Forcing Selection and Parameter Uncertainty Influence Community Land Model Version 5 Hydrological Applications in the United States

Despite the increasing use of large-scale Land Surface Models (LSMs) in predicting hydrological responses in extreme conditions, there's a critical gap in understanding the uncertainties in these predictions. This study addresses this gap through a detailed diagnostic evaluation of the uncertainties arising from meteorological forcing selection and model parametrization in hydrological simulations of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5). CLM5 is configured at a spatial scale of about 12-km to simulate runoff processes for 464 headwater watersheds, selected from the Catchment Attributes for Large-Sample Studies (CAMELS) dataset to be representative of physiographic and climatic gradients across the conterminous United States. For each watershed, CLM5 is driven by five commonly used gridded forcing datasets in combination with a large ensemble (> 1200) of key CLM5 hydrologic parameters. Our results suggest that uncertainty in CLM5 runoff simulations resulting from both forcing and parametric sources is markedly higher in arid regions, e.g., Great Plains and Midwest regions. Uncertainty in low flow is dominated by parametric uncertainty, while the selection of meteorological forcing contributes more dominantly to high flow and seasonal flows during fall and spring. Our analysis also demonstrates that the selection of forcing datasets and the metrics used to calibrate CLM5 significantly impact the model’s predictive accuracy in extreme event severity for both floods and droughts. Overall, the results from this study highlight the need to understand and account for forcing and parametric uncertainties in CLM5 simulations, particularly for hazard and risk assessments addressing hydrologic extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Helium in Stream Water as a Volcanic Monitoring Tool

Abstract We show that synoptic sampling of streams can be used to characterize volcanic volatiles in groundwater over large spatial scales. Synoptic sampling of dissolved noble gases, 222 Rn, major ions, and stream discharge was carried out along a 30 km reach of the Gibbon River, near Norris Geyser Basin in Yellowstone National Park, USA. Groundwater discharge location, volume, and composition were estimated by constrained calibration of a stream flow and solute transport model. Estimated groundwater composition from stream modeling was compared to shallow groundwater concentrations measured in nearby springs. 3 He, 222 Rn, and Cl signatures in the Gibbon River are indicative of groundwater discharge with a volcanic signature along the study reach. Stream water noble gas isotopic composition has similar isotopic mixing patterns to springs. The model‐estimated composition of groundwater discharging to the Gibbon agrees well with observed groundwater composition from nearby springs for all modeled analytes. We present the first observations of elevated mantle helium in stream water and show that stream water can be used as a convenient collection point to estimate spatially distributed groundwater composition and to monitor changes in volatile flux over large spatial areas. These results offer the possibility that stream surveys in volcanic terrain could be a new method for distributed volcanic monitoring at the catchment scale and beyond.

Gardner, W. Payton↗

DOE OSTI2026

Lessons Learned from Ecosystem-Scale Experimental Field Studies (Workshop Report)

Efforts to understand and predict ecosystem responses to environmental change require long-term, large-scale, spatially representative experiments and observations that capture natural variability, test predictive models, and generate transferable knowledge. Such studies are indispensable for unraveling the complexities of terrestrial ecosystems and their responses to disturbances and evolving environmental conditions, while generating the data necessary for developing mechanistic models and predictive tools that inform decision-making processes. Having a rich history of designing and executing large-scale ecosystem experiments, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Environmental System Science program convened a workshop in January 2025 that brought together leaders in the field to distill critical lessons from decades of experience in large-scale experiments. The workshop aimed to (1) provide an ecosystem experiment primer for best practices, thus ensuring a high scientific return on investment for funding agencies, and (2) offer a robust framework for the design and management of future research initiatives. This report synthesizes insights and experiences from workshop participants and is structured to capture the entire research life cycle, from goal setting and design to operations, adaptive management, team dynamics, collaborations, and the often overlooked aspect of decommissioning. By synthesizing decision-making and lessons learned across diverse research approaches, the report aims to provide a template of essential factors to consider when designing successful long-term, large-scale ecosystem experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Integrating data types to estimate spatial patterns of avian migration across the Western Hemisphere

For many avian species, spatial migration patterns remain largely undescribed, especially across hemispheric extents. Recent advancements in tracking technologies and high-resolution species distribution models (i.e., eBird Status and Trends products) provide new insights into migratory bird movements and offer a promising opportunity for integrating independent data sources to describe avian migration. Here, we present a three-stage modeling framework for estimating spatial patterns of avian migration. First, we integrate tracking and band re-encounter data to quantify migratory connectivity, defined as the relative proportions of individuals migrating between breeding and nonbreeding regions. Next, we use estimated connectivity proportions along with eBird occurrence probabilities to produce probabilistic least-cost path (LCP) indices. In a final step, we use generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) both to evaluate the ability of LCP indices to accurately predict (i.e., as a covariate) observed locations derived from tracking and band re-encounter data sets versus pseudo-absence locations during migratory periods and to create a fully integrated (i.e., eBird occurrence, LCP, and tracking/band re-encounter data) spatial prediction index for mapping species-specific seasonal migrations. To illustrate this approach, we apply this framework to describe seasonal migrations of 12 bird species across the Western Hemisphere during pre- and postbreeding migratory periods (i.e., spring and fall, respectively). We found that including LCP indices with eBird occurrence in GAMMs generally improved the ability to accurately predict observed migratory locations compared to models with eBird occurrence alone. Using three performance metrics, the eBird + LCP model demonstrated equivalent or superior fit relative to the eBird-only model for 22 of 24 species–season GAMMs. In particular, the integrated index filled in spatial gaps for species with over-water movements and those that migrated over land where there were few eBird sightings and, thus, low predictive ability of eBird occurrence probabilities (e.g., Amazonian rainforest in South America). This methodology of combining individual-based seasonal movement data with temporally dynamic species distribution models provides a comprehensive approach to integrating multiple data types to describe broad-scale spatial patterns of animal movement. Further development and customization of this approach will continue to advance knowledge about the full annual cycle and conservation of migratory birds.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Integrated Multiscale Modeling Framework for Unconventional Stimulation and Production (Final Report)

The production of oil and gas from unconventional reservoirs largely depends upon two main features operating at different scales: (1) the establishment of a reservoir scale stimulated fracture network that effectively communicates with the rock volume, enhancing permeability and transport to the wellbore and (2) the coupled multi-phase flow, chemical and mechanical processes affecting the migration of hydrocarbons from the low permeability country rock adjacent to the stimulated fracture network. To date, there has been no simulation framework that allows seamless and integrated prediction of these features across spatial scales extending from the pore structure of the reservoir rock to the volume of the reservoir. In addition, there has been a lack of suitable field measurements to test such models, as stimulation and production data are often proprietary and not freely available to national laboratories and academic institutions. New multi-scale simulation capabilities are needed that are validated against suitable field-based research experiments on hydraulic fracturing and shale production.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2022

Substantial differences in soil viral community composition within and among four Northern California habitats

Abstract Viruses contribute to food web dynamics and nutrient cycles in diverse ecosystems, yet the biogeographical patterns that underlie these viral dynamics are poorly understood, particularly in soil. Here, we identified trends in soil viral community composition in relation to habitat, moisture content, and physical distance. We generated 30 soil viromes from four distinct habitats (wetlands, grasslands, woodlands, and chaparral) by selectively capturing virus-sized particles prior to DNA extraction, and we recovered 3432 unique viral ‘species’ (dsDNA vOTUs). Viral communities differed significantly by soil moisture content, with viral richness generally higher in wet compared to dry soil habitats. However, vOTUs were rarely shared between viromes, including replicates <10 m apart, suggesting that soil viruses may not disperse well and that future soil viral community sampling strategies may need to account for extreme community differences over small spatial scales. Of the 19% of vOTUs detected in more than one virome, 93% were from the same habitat and site, suggesting greater viral community similarity in closer proximity and under similar environmental conditions. Within-habitat differences indicate that extensive sampling would be required for rigorous cross-habitat comparisons, and results highlight emerging paradigms of high viral activity in wet soils and soil viral community spatial heterogeneity.

Durham, Devyn M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Scaling plant responses to high temperature from cell to ecosystem

Plant survival and productivity decrease with exposure to less favourable environments. The negative effects of environmental factors such as water-deficit and salinity stress on vegetation are relatively well studied, primarily due to the large losses in crop yield and forest biomass caused by these stresses. Although the impact of combined heat and drought on plants has received considerable interest in recent years due to climate change, there has been less focus on ascertaining the impact of heat stress alone at a range of temporal and spatial scales. The steady increase in global mean temperatures and (more importantly) variability in extreme temperatures is translating into more frequent and extreme heat stress episodes, which in turn reduce plant productivity. Further, projected increases in both day and night temperatures and the predicted impact of these changes on agricultural and forest productivity have drawn attention to the need to better address the direct effects of heat on plants. In particular, there has been tremendous interest in understanding the short- and long-term effects of heat at the cellular and whole-plant levels, including work on crops of agricultural importance and species from less managed ecosystems. Hence, we made a concerted effort in this Special Issue to capture recent progress in our ability to quantify the impact of heat stress, and identify new tools and approaches that have been developed and implemented to capture a wide range of responses in plants. The series of reviews and research articles presented here captures our current understanding of plant physiological and molecular responses to heat stress, as well as covering phenotyping methods, genetic diversity and potential routes through which plants can acclimate and adapt to warming climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Production of relativistic electrons at subrelativistic laser intensities

Relativistic electron temperatures were measured from kilojoule, subrelativistic laser-plasma interactions. Experiments reflect an order of magnitude higher temperatures than expected from a ponderomotive scaling, where temperatures of up to 2.2 MeV were generated using an intensity of 1 × 10 18 W/cm 2 . Two-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations suggest that electrons gain superponderomotive energies by stochastic acceleration as they sample a large area of rapidly changing laser phase. We further demonstrate that such high temperatures are possible from subrelativistic intensities by using lasers with long pulse durations and large spatial scales.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Local Resistance Measurement for Degradation of c-Si Heterojunction with Intrinsic Thin Layer (HIT) Solar Modules

Silicon heterojunction with intrinsic thin layer (or HIT) modules typically degrade at a rate of less than 1% annually in solar fields with dominant degradation in open-circuit voltage and some degradation in series resistance. However, detailed mechanisms can differ from module to module. Here, we study increases in local series resistance that occur over long-term field deployment, indicated by cell areas where the photoluminescence intensity does not degrade but the electroluminescence degrades significantly. To directly measure the local series resistance, we have cored out the local electroluminescence-degraded area, and we measured the sheet resistance by 4-point-probe and local nm-scale resistance using scanning spreading resistance microscopy (SSRM). The results by 4-point-probe show scattered sheet resistance that can be caused, for example, by nonuniform current paths through the transparent conductive oxide layer, the a-Si:H emitter, or the near-junction c-Si inversion layer. In contrast, the SSRM results indicate a relatively uniform and non-degraded resistivity on smaller nanometer spatial scales. SSRM is an atomic force microscopy-based two-terminal resistance mapping technique that measures the local resistance in nm-volume beneath the probe. The consistent resistances measured on the control and degraded samples can exclude the degradation of transparent conductive oxide resistance.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Synthetic Soil Aggregates: Bioprinted Habitats for High-Throughput Microbial Metaphenomics

The dynamics of microbial processes are difficult to study in natural soil, owing to the small spatial scales on which microorganisms operate and to the opacity and chemical complexity of the soil habitat. To circumvent these challenges, we have created a 3D-bioprinted habitat that mimics aspects of natural soil aggregates while providing a chemically defined and translucent alternative culturing method for soil microorganisms. Our Synthetic Soil Aggregates (SSAs) retain the porosity, permeability, and patchy resource distribution of natural soil aggregates—parameters that are expected to influence emergent microbial community interactions. We demonstrate the printability and viability of several different microorganisms within SSAs and show how the SSAs can be integrated into a multi-omics workflow for single SSA resolution genomics, metabolomics, proteomics, lipidomics, and biogeochemical assays. We study the impact of the structured habitat on the distribution of a model co-culture microbial community and find that it is significantly different from the spatial organization of the same community in liquid culture, indicating a potential for SSAs to reproduce naturally occurring emergent community phenotypes. The SSAs have the potential as a tool to help researchers quantify microbial scale processes in situ and achieve high-resolution data from the interplay between environmental properties and microbial ecology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Turbulent dynamo action and its effects on the mixing at the convective boundary of an idealized oxygen-burning shell

Convection is one of the most important mixing processes in stellar interiors. Hydrodynamic mass entrainment can bring fresh fuel from neighboring stable layers into a convection zone, modifying the structure and evolution of the star. Because flows in stellar convection zones are highly turbulent, multidimensional hydrodynamic simulations are fundamental to accurately capture the physics of mixing processes. Under some conditions, strong magnetic fields can be sustained by the action of a turbulent dynamo, adding another layer of complexity and possibly altering the dynamics in the convection zone and at its boundaries. In this study, we used our fully compressible S EVEN -L EAGUE H YDRO code to run detailed and highly resolved three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations of turbulent convection, dynamo amplification, and convective boundary mixing in a simplified setup whose stratification is similar to that of an oxygen-burning shell in a star with an initial mass of 25 M ⊙ . We find that the random stretching of magnetic field lines by fluid motions in the inertial range of the turbulent spectrum (i.e., a small-scale dynamo) naturally amplifies the seed field by several orders of magnitude in a few convective turnover timescales. During the subsequent saturated regime, the magnetic-to-kinetic energy ratio inside the convective shell reaches values as high as 0.33, and the average magnetic field strength is ∼10 10 G. Such strong fields efficiently suppress shear instabilities, which feed the turbulent cascade of kinetic energy, on a wide range of spatial scales. The resulting convective flows are characterized by thread-like structures that extend over a large fraction of the convective shell. The reduced flow speeds and the presence of magnetic fields with strengths up to 60% of the equipartition value at the upper convective boundary diminish the rate of mass entrainment from the stable layer by ≈20% as compared to the purely hydrodynamic case.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Positive correlation between wood δ 15 N and stream nitrate concentrations in two temperate deciduous forests

Abstract A limitation to understanding drivers of long-term trends in terrestrial nitrogen (N) availability in forests and its subsequent influence on stream nitrate export is a general lack of integrated analyses using long-term data on terrestrial and aquatic N cycling at comparable spatial scales. Here we analyze relationships between stream nitrate concentrations and wood δ 15 N records (n = 96 trees) across five neighboring headwater catchments in the Blue Ridge physiographic province and within a single catchment in the Appalachian Plateau physiographic province in the eastern United States. Climatic, acidic deposition, and forest disturbance datasets were developed to elucidate the influence of these factors on terrestrial N availability through time. We hypothesized that spatial and temporal variation of terrestrial N availability, for which tree-ring δ 15 N records serve as a proxy, affects the variation of stream nitrate concentration across space and time. Across space at the Blue Ridge study sites, stream nitrate concentration increased linearly with increasing catchment mean wood δ 15 N. Over time, stream nitrate concentrations decreased with decreasing wood δ 15 N in five of the six catchments. Wood δ 15 N showed a significant negative relationship with disturbance and acidic deposition. Disturbance likely exacerbated N limitation by inducing nitrate leaching and ultimately enhancing vegetative uptake. As observed elsewhere, lower rates of acidic deposition and subsequent deacidification of soils may increase terrestrial N availability. Despite the ephemeral modifications of terrestrial N availability by these two drivers and climate, long-term declines in terrestrial N availability were robust and have likely driven much of the declines in stream nitrate concentration throughout the central Appalachians.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Estimating irrigation water use from remotely sensed evapotranspiration data: Accuracy and uncertainties at field, water right, and regional scales

Irrigated agriculture is the dominant user of water globally, but most water withdrawals are not monitored or reported. As a result, it is largely unknown when, where, and how much water is used for irrigation. Here, we evaluated the ability of remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) data, integrated with other datasets, to calculate irrigation water withdrawals and applications in an intensively irrigated portion of the United States. We compared irrigation calculations based on an ensemble of satellite-driven ET models from OpenET with reported groundwater withdrawals from hundreds of farmer irrigation application records and a statewide flowmeter database at three spatial scales (field, water right group, and management area). At the field scale, we found that ET-based calculations of irrigation agreed best with reported irrigation when the OpenET ensemble mean was aggregated to the growing season timescale (bias = 1.6–4.9%, R 2 = 0.53–0.74), and agreement between calculated and reported irrigation was better for multi-year averages than for individual years. At the water right group scale, linking pumping wells to specific irrigated fields was the primary source of uncertainty. At the management area scale, calculated irrigation exhibited similar temporal patterns as flowmeter data but tended to be positively biased with more interannual variability. Disagreement between calculated and reported irrigation was strongly correlated with annual precipitation, and calculated and reported irrigation agreed more closely after statistically adjusting for annual precipitation. The selection of an ET model was also an important consideration, as variability across ET models was larger than the potential impacts of conservation measures employed in the region. From these results, we suggest key practices for working with ET-based irrigation data that include accurately accounting for changes in soil moisture, deep percolation, and runoff; careful verification of irrigated area and well-field linkages; and conducting application-specific evaluations of uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mitigation of spatial nonstationarity with vision transformers

Spatial nonstationarity, the location variance of features’ statistical distributions, is ubiquitous in many natural settings. For example, in geological reservoirs rock matrix porosity varies vertically due to geomechanical compaction trends, in mineral deposits grades vary due to sedimentation and concentration processes, in hydrology rainfall varies due to the atmosphere and topography interactions, and in metallurgy crystalline structures vary due to differential cooling. Conventional geostatistical modeling workflows rely on the assumption of stationarity to be able to model spatial features for geostatistical inference. Nevertheless, this is often not a realistic assumption when dealing with nonstationary spatial data and this has motivated a variety of nonstationary spatial modeling workflows such as trend and residual decomposition, cosimulation with secondary features, and spatial segmentation and independent modeling over stationary subdomains. The advent of deep learning technologies has enabled new workflows for modeling spatial relationships. However, there is a paucity of demonstrated best practice and general guidance on mitigation of spatial nonstationarity with deep learning in the geospatial context. We demonstrate the impact of two common types of geostatistical spatial nonstationarity on deep learning model prediction performance and propose the mitigation of such impacts using self-attention (vision transformer) models. We demonstrate the utility of vision transformers for the mitigation of nonstationarity with relative errors as low as 10%, exceeding the performance of alternative deep learning methods such as convolutional neural networks. We establish best practice by demonstrating the ability of self-attention networks for modeling large-scale spatial relationships in the presence of commonly observed geospatial nonstationarity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗