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At least 217 records · Page 12

Toward machine learning interatomic potentials for modeling uranium mononitride

Uranium mononitride (UN) is a promising accident-tolerant fuel because of its high fissile density and high thermal conductivity. In this study, we developed the first machine learning interatomic potentials for reliable atomic-scale modeling of UN at finite temperatures. We constructed a training set using density functional theory (DFT) calculations that was enriched through an active learning procedure, and two neural network potentials were generated. Both potentials successfully reproduce key thermophysical properties of interest, such as temperature-dependent lattice parameter, specific heat capacity, and bulk modulus. We also evaluated the energy of stoichiometric defect reactions and defect migration barriers and found close agreement with DFT predictions, demonstrating that our potentials can be used for modeling defects in UN. Additional tests provide evidence that our potentials are reliable for simulating diffusion, noble gas impurities, and radiation damage.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Computationally efficient and error aware surrogate construction for numerical solutions of subsurface flow through porous media

Limiting the injection rate to restrict the pressure below a threshold at a critical location can be an important goal of simulations that model the subsurface pressure between injection and extraction wells. The pressure is approximated by the solution of Darcy’s partial differential equation for a given permeability field. The subsurface permeability is modeled as a random field since it is known only up to statistical properties. This induces uncertainty in the computed pressure. Solving the partial differential equation for an ensemble of random permeability simulations enables estimating a probability distribution for the pressure at the critical location. These simulations are computationally expensive, and practitioners often need rapid online guidance for real-time pressure management. An ensemble of numerical partial differential equation solutions is used to construct a Gaussian process regression model that can quickly predict the pressure at the critical location as a function of the extraction rate and permeability realization. The Gaussian process surrogate analyzes the ensemble of numerical pressure solutions at the critical location as noisy observations of the true pressure solution, enabling robust inference using the conditional Gaussian process distribution. Our first novel contribution is to identify a sampling methodology for the random environment and matching kernel technology for which fitting the Gaussian process regression model scales as O ( n log n ) instead of the typical O ( n 3 ) rate in the number of samples n used to fit the surrogate. The surrogate model allows almost instantaneous predictions for the pressure at the critical location as a function of the extraction rate and permeability realization. Our second contribution is a novel algorithm to calibrate the uncertainty in the surrogate model to the discrepancy between the true pressure solution of Darcy’s equation and the numerical solution. Finally, although our method is derived for building a surrogate for the solution of Darcy’s equation with a random permeability field, the framework broadly applies to solutions of other partial differential equations with random coefficients.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Property optimized energy absorber for automotive bumpers utilizing multi-material and structural design strategies

This study proposes a novel design for automotive bumper using optimized lattice structures and multi-materials to balance low-speed collision and high-speed pedestrian impact performance. Different blends of 20 % carbon fiber-reinforced acrylonitrile butadiene styrene with thermoplastic polyurethane were used to tailor material properties. The energy absorber features lattice structures with customized mechanical responses, created by varying the incline angle θ from 0 to 180°. We conducted 576 finite element simulations on a half-scale model to optimize energy absorption and stiffness, leading to 66 optimized designs that met both low-speed and high-speed impact criteria. Two sub-scale optimized energy absorbers with different peak forces—both meeting low-speed impact requirements—were 3D printed and validated through drop-weight testing. The one with lower peak stress demonstrated a more compliant response, exhibiting approximately 90 % lower initial peak force and an increase in energy absorption of around 33 % (from 24 J to 32 J). Compared to the baseline triangular lattice, the optimized absorber increased energy absorption by 68 % from (19 J to 32 J) and reduced peak stress by 70 %. It also showed near-complete recovery with minimal fractures, making it suitable for repeated use. This design improves safety while offering a lightweight, durable, and cost-effective bumper system.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Introduction to Engage: NASA Training Session

Welcome to Engage! Engage is a capacity expansion modeling tool supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and based on the Calliope open-source capacity expansion model developed by the ETH Zurich University, maintained at the TU Delft University. Engage is an accessible (free, open-access, web-hosted) and flexible web-based energy system planning application for rapid multiple-energy-form energy system scenario exploration. Its cloud-based, collaborator-sharable data model, intuitive interface and visualization capabilities facilitate collaboration and communication among teams, with experts, and among diverse stakeholder groups exploring energy system implications from district to national-scale models. This training session was presented to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to help them understand how capacity expansion modeling can help them develop single site/distribution analysis of energy to regional airports.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Global 1 km land surface parameters for kilometer-scale Earth system modeling

Earth system models (ESMs) are progressively advancing towards the kilometer scale (“k-scale”). However, the surface parameters for land surface models (LSMs) within ESMs running at the k-scale are typically derived from coarse-resolution and outdated datasets. This study aims to develop a new set of global land surface parameters with a resolution of 1 km for multiple years from 2001 to 2020, utilizing the latest and most accurate available datasets. Specifically, the datasets consist of parameters related to land use and land cover, vegetation, soil, and topography. Differences between the newly developed 1 km land surface parameters and conventional parameters emphasize their potential for higher accuracy due to the incorporation of the most advanced and latest data sources. To demonstrate the capability of these new parameters, we conducted 1 km resolution simulations using the E3SM Land Model version 2 (ELM2) over the contiguous United States. Our results demonstrate that land surface parameters contribute to significant spatial heterogeneity in ELM2 simulations of soil moisture, latent heat, emitted longwave radiation, and absorbed shortwave radiation. On average, about 31 % to 54 % of spatial information is lost by upscaling the 1 km ELM2 simulations to a 12 km resolution. Using eXplainable Machine Learning (XML) methods, the influential factors driving the spatial variability and spatial information loss of ELM2 simulations were identified, highlighting the substantial impact of the spatial variability and information loss of various land surface parameters, as well as the mean climate conditions. The comparison against four benchmark datasets indicates that ELM generally performs well in simulating soil moisture and surface energy fluxes. The new land surface parameters are tailored to meet the emerging needs of k-scale LSM and ESM modeling with significant implications for advancing our understanding of water, carbon, and energy cycles under global change. The 1 km land surface parameters are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10815170 (Li et al., 2024).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Towards robust surrogate models: Benchmarking machine learning approaches to expediting phase field simulations of brittle fracture

Data-driven approaches have the potential to make modeling complex, nonlinear physical phenomena significantly more computationally tractable. For example, computational modeling of fracture is a core challenge where machine learning techniques have the potential to provide a much needed speedup that would enable progress in areas such as multi-scale modeling and uncertainty quantification. Currently, phase field modeling (PFM) of fracture is one such approach that offers a convenient variational formulation to model crack nucleation, branching and propagation. To date, machine learning techniques have shown promise in approximating PFM simulations. While standard fracture benchmarks represent realistic scenarios frequently observed in practice, they typically do not provide sufficiently challenging tests for data-driven methods. Here, to address this gap, we introduce a challenging dataset based on PFM simulations designed to benchmark and advance ML methods for fracture modeling. This dataset includes three energy decomposition methods, two boundary conditions, and 1000 random initial crack configurations for a total of 6000 simulations. Each sample contains 100 time steps capturing the temporal evolution of the crack field. Alongside this dataset, we also implement and evaluate Physics Informed Neural Networks (PINN), Fourier Neural Operators (FNO), and UNet models as baselines, and explore the impact of ensembling strategies on prediction accuracy. With this combination of our dataset and baseline models drawn from the literature we aim to provide a standardized and challenging benchmark for evaluating machine learning approaches to solid mechanics. Our results highlight both the promise and limitations of popular current models, and demonstrate the utility of this dataset as a testbed for advancing machine learning in fracture mechanics research.

Benchmark dataset↗

A Model of Large Scale Electrochemical Direct Ocean Capture Under Variable Power

Since limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C by 2100 will not only require an energy transition but also billions of tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) removal per year, it is essential to expand these efforts. This can be done offshore via electrochemical direct ocean capture (eChem DOC) which extracts CO2 from seawater that can later be stored underground or converted to products. Deployments of eChem DOC will be powered by renewable energy and therefore need to function with variable power inputs. This project aims to support future large-scale deployments by developing a model of eChem DOC operation, informed by industry and literature, and assessing its performance under variable power and varying designs. Initial analysis suggests that discretizing the eChem system has a higher impact on increasing overall capture than storing the chemical solutions to continue capture during periods of lower power availability, but this is likely situation dependent. Future work will use more realistic power profiles.

direct ocean capture↗

Computer vision models enable mixed linear modeling to predict arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal colonization using fungal morphology

Abstract The presence of Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi (AMF) in vascular land plant roots is one of the most ancient of symbioses supporting nitrogen and phosphorus exchange for photosynthetically derived carbon. Here we provide a multi-scale modeling approach to predict AMF colonization of a worldwide crop from a Recombinant Inbred Line (RIL) population derived from Sorghum bicolor and S. propinquum . The high-throughput phenotyping methods of fungal structures here rely on a Mask Region-based Convolutional Neural Network (Mask R-CNN) in computer vision for pixel-wise fungal structure segmentations and mixed linear models to explore the relations of AMF colonization, root niche, and fungal structure allocation. Models proposed capture over 95% of the variation in AMF colonization as a function of root niche and relative abundance of fungal structures in each plant. Arbuscule allocation is a significant predictor of AMF colonization among sibling plants. Arbuscules and extraradical hyphae implicated in nutrient exchange predict highest AMF colonization in the top root section. Our work demonstrates that deep learning can be used by the community for the high-throughput phenotyping of AMF in plant roots. Mixed linear modeling provides a framework for testing hypotheses about AMF colonization phenotypes as a function of root niche and fungal structure allocations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Cloud response to co-condensation of water and organic vapors over the boreal forest

Abstract. Accounting for the condensation of organic vapors along with water vapor (co-condensation) has been shown in adiabatic cloud parcel model (CPM) simulations to enhance the number of aerosol particles that activate to form cloud droplets. The boreal forest is an important source of biogenic organic vapors, but the role of these vapors in co-condensation has not been systematically investigated. In this work, the environmental conditions under which strong co-condensation-driven cloud droplet number enhancements would be expected over the boreal biome are identified. Recent measurement technology, specifically the Filter Inlet for Gases and AEROsols (FIGAERO) coupled to an iodide-adduct chemical ionization mass spectrometer (I-CIMS), is utilized to construct volatility distributions of the boreal atmospheric organics. Then, a suite of CPM simulations initialized with a comprehensive set of concurrent aerosol observations collected in the boreal forest of Finland during spring 2014 is performed. The degree to which co-condensation impacts droplet formation in the model is shown to be dependent on the initialization of temperature, relative humidity, updraft velocity, aerosol size distribution, organic vapor concentration, and the volatility distribution. The predicted median enhancements in cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) due to accounting for the co-condensation of water and organics fall on average between 16 % and 22 %. This corresponds to activating particles 10–16 nm smaller in dry diameter that would otherwise remain as interstitial aerosol. The highest CDNC enhancements (ΔCDNC) are predicted in the presence of a nascent ultrafine aerosol mode with a geometric mean diameter of ∼ 40 nm and no clear Hoppel minimum, indicative of pristine environments with a source of ultrafine particles (e.g., via new particle formation processes). Such aerosol size distributions are observed 30 %–40 % of the time in the studied boreal forest environment in spring and fall when new particle formation frequency is the highest. To evaluate the frequencies with which such distributions are experienced by an Earth system model over the whole boreal biome, 5 years of UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) simulations are further used. The frequencies are substantially lower than those observed at the boreal forest measurement site (< 6 % of the time), and the positive values, peaking in spring, are modeled only over Fennoscandia and the western parts of Siberia. Overall, the similarities in the size distributions between observed and modeled (UKESM1) are limited, which would limit the ability of this model, or any model with a similar aerosol representation, to project the climate relevance of co-condensation over the boreal forest. For the critical aerosol size distribution regime, ΔCDNC is shown to be sensitive to the concentrations of semi-volatile and some intermediate-volatility organic compounds (SVOCs and IVOCs), especially when the overall particle surface area is low. The magnitudes of ΔCDNC remain less affected by the more volatile vapors such as formic acid and extremely low- and low-volatility organic compounds (ELVOCs and LVOCs). The reasons for this are that most volatile organic vapors condense inefficiently due to their high volatility below the cloud base, and the concentrations of LVOCs and ELVOCs are too low to gain significant concentrations of soluble mass to reduce the critical supersaturations enough for droplet activation to occur. A reduction in the critical supersaturation caused by organic condensation emerges as the main driver of the modeled ΔCDNC. The results highlight the potential significance of co-condensation in pristine boreal environments close to sources of fresh ultrafine particles. For accurate predictions of co-condensation effects on CDNC, also in larger-scale models, an accurate representation of the aerosol size distribution is critical. Further studies targeted at finding observational evidence and constraints for co-condensation in the field are encouraged.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The role of ion-scale micro-turbulence in pedestal width of the DIII-D wide-pedestal QH mode

The low-edge rotation, intrinsically ELM-free, and improved confinement wide-pedestal quiescent H-mode (QH-mode), discovered in DIII-D tokamak, has pedestal widths exceeding the EPED-kinetic-ballooning mode (KBM) model scaling typically by at least 25%. Ion-scale ($k_yp_s$ < 1) microturbulence and its role in setting the pedestal structure is investigated using the radially local δ$f$ gyrokinetic code CGYRO. The electromagnetic trapped electron mode (TEM) is unstable at the pedestal top, while plasma beta (β$_e$) is ∼60% below the KBM onset threshold and the electron temperature gradient mode is found to be unstable in the peak gradient region. Nonlinear simulation reveals that the ion-scale turbulence could produce electron energy flux consistent with the flux inferred from power balance at the pedestal top, with a reasonable variation of the local shearing rate; and the local neoclassical transport from NEO is dominant over the simulated turbulent transport in the ion energy flux channel. The simulated ion-scale turbulence produces much lower electron energy flux than inferred from experiment in the pedestal peak gradient region. A correction to the EPED-KBM pedestal width scaling is obtained based on the two-dimensional scan of pedestal top plasma beta (β$_e$) and normalized electron density and temperature scale lengths,${a}$/${L_n}_e$, ${a}$/${L_T}_n$using CGYRO linear simulations. Mode transitions among TEM, micro-tearing mode, ion-temperature gradient mode and KBM, are observed in the 2D scan at the pedestal top. A fixed normalized growth rate for these drift-type modes is taken to determine the pedestal width scaling, which shows good consistency with the QH experimental database on pedestal heights and widths. The onset of KBM instabilities and the local E × B shear suppression criterion set the lower and upper limit for the pedestal width of standard QH-mode, wide-pedestal QH-mode and type-I ELMy H mode. A potentially higher and wider pedestal is expected from the new scaling of pedestal width. This work presents an improved understanding of the ion-scale micro-turbulence of wide-pedestal QH-mode and sheds light on a promising scenario for future reactors, including ITER and beyond.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Membrane Degradation in PEM Fuel Cells: Part I. Modeling Gas Crossover and the Pt Band

Understanding chemical degradation of the proton-exchange membrane in fuel cells is crucial for extending their lifetimes. Herein, various degradation reactions reported in literature are organized and analyzed, including direct radical generation and an indirect (Fenton) pathway. To understand the transport of dissolved H 2 and O 2 crossover gases as they relate to membrane degradation, an agglomerate-scale model is introduced, treating gas, ionomer, and catalyst as discrete phases. The model reveals a key phenomenon: at working potentials, dissolved gases are mostly consumed at the interface between the catalyst layer and the membrane, leaving little gas to cross the membrane. Under open-circuit conditions, dissolved gases are not consumed and can then cross the membrane. This explains high H 2 O 2 concentrations and degradation rates seen in experiments but not captured in previous models. Following mixed-potential theory, crossover gases supply the hydrogen-oxidation and oxygen-reduction reactions, which occur simultaneously on individual Pt particles comprising the Pt band in the membrane, forming reactive species (H 2 O 2 , OH·). Results show crossover gas almost entirely reacts on the Pt band, allowing little to reach the opposite electrode. Furthermore, the micro-scale geometry of the catalyst-layer/membrane interface impacts the gas crossover at working potentials, indicating that cell construction affects membrane durability.

Johnson, Evan F. [Lawrence Berkeley National Labor↗

Screening green solvents for multilayer plastic film recycling processes

Multilayer (ML) plastic films are essential packaging materials that help protect products from diverse external factors; however, only 5% of all ML films are recycled in the United States. Solvent-based technologies are a promising alternative for recycling ML films because they enable recovery of constituent polymer resins. For example, the Solvent Targeted Recovery and Precipitation (STRAPTM) process sequentially dissolves and separates polymer components using a series of targeted solvent washes. A crucial design aspect of this process is the impact of selected solvents on human health and on the environment. Here, this work introduces a computational framework that integrates molecular modeling, process modeling, techno-economic analysis (TEA), and life-cycle analysis (LCA) to quickly screen green solvents for solvent-based ML recycling processes. Initial screening for solvents based on selectivity is performed by estimating temperature-dependent solubilities using molecular-scale models. Subsequent screening uses basic estimates of energy use and octanol-water partition coefficients (logP) as key measures of health, safety, and environmental hazards. Detailed process modeling, TEA, and LCA are used on a reduced set of promising solvents identified in early screening steps to more accurately determine how solvent selection and associated operating conditions impact overall economics and environmental impacts. The framework is used for the identification of green solvents (from a database of 1,000 solvents) that separate an industrial ML film composed of polyethylene (PE), ethylene vinyl alcohol (EVOH), and polyethylene terephthalate (PET). Our analysis shows the effectiveness of the framework and reveals fundamental trade-offs between solvent greenness, solubility, and economics. Our work emphasizes the importance of taking a holistic systems view during solvent design and aims to inform the development of new processes for ML film recycling and the identification of new ML films that are easier to recycle.

economics↗

New capabilities for rapid depletion analysis of pebble-bed reactors in SCALE

The SCALE Leap-In for Cores at Equilibrium (SLICE) method leverages capabilities available in the SCALE modeling and simulation suite to facilitate rapid estimation of equilibrium core inventories for flowing-pebble reactor systems in support of a variety of fuel cycle applications. New capabilities that compliment the SLICE method have been developed for the ORIGAMI interface to ORIGEN in SCALE to facilitate rapid depletion calculations for flowing-pebble systems. New features include a more generalized and flexible means of specifying interpolation dimensions, the ability to evaluate pebbles moving through user-defined “axial zones” in each of the pebble’s multiple passes through the core, and the treatment of differential velocities across radial channels (representing both pebble-to-pebble and wall-to-pebble friction effects). ORIGAMI thus provides an efficient user interface to define a pebble’s path and irradiation histories of its multiple passes through the core to calculate the pebble’s time-dependent inventories, which can be useful in various applications domains such as safeguards, criticality safety, and disposal analyses. The consistency of new ORIGAMI approach was verified against the solution obtained using the SLICE method with ORIGEN-ARP, showing excellent agreement.

Skutnik, Steven E. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ↗

Total Water Level Prediction at Continental Scale: Coastal Ocean

We demonstrate recent progress made in the simulation of total water level (TWL) at continental scale, using the coastal ocean of US East Coast/Gulf of Mexico coast as an example. A key difference between the continental-scale and small-scale modeling is that the former requires a more accurate vertical datum. Using a geoid-based datum (xGEOID20b), a satellite altimetry product, and a state-of-the-art 3D unstructured-grid model, we significantly improve the accuracy for TWL both near- and off-shore. The average root-mean-square error at all NOAA stations is 14 cm. The non-tidal signals are found to be sensitive to the representation of a large-scale current system near the boundary and extending the domain extent to accommodate this system improves these signals.

Cui, Linlin↗

Building Fraction and Mean Height for Los Angeles (2010 and 2020) at 30 m Resolution

This dataset provides 30 m resolution spatial layers of building fraction and mean building height for the Los Angeles metropolitan region for 2010 and 2020. Derived from the Model America version 2 building dataset, it represents the distribution of total building footprint area and average building height across the metropolitan region, offering a consistent geospatial resource for urban analysis. The dataset is intended to support applications in urban climate studies, land-use assessment, city-scale modeling, and planning by enabling comparison of urban form characteristics over time. Additional dataset details including data processing details are provided in the Readme document (README_LA_BF_MeanHeight_2010_2020 1.txt).

geospatial↗

Improving the QBO Forcing by Resolved Waves With Vertical Grid Refinement in E3SMv2

Abstract The quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) is the dominate mode of variability in the tropical stratosphere and plays an important role in stratospheric dynamics and chemistry. The QBO is notably deficient in many climate models, including the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) developed by the US Department of Energy. In this work, we refine the lower stratospheric vertical grid spacing from roughly 1 km to 500 m to facilitate more realistic equatorial wave activity in the lower stratosphere in E3SM version 2. The refinement results in a simulated QBO with a reasonable amplitude and easterly‐westerly transition in both directions, but still has a longer period than observed, slower easterly downward propagation speed, and shallower vertical depth. Similar refinement in the multi‐scale modeling framework configuration of E3SM yields similar improvements. By analyzing the forcing contributions from different wave types, we find that most of the QBO forcing still comes from parameterized gravity wave drag from convection. The improved QBO forcing contributions from resolved waves, especially equatorial Kelvin waves and resolved small scale waves, can be attributed to the grid refinement.

E3SM↗

Deep learning for time series forecasting: a survey of recent advances

Time series forecasting plays a critical role in numerous real-world applications, such as finance, healthcare, transportation, and scientific computing. In recent years, deep learning has become a powerful tool for modeling complex temporal patterns and improving forecasting accuracy. This survey provides an overview of recent deep learning approaches for time series forecasting, involving various architectures including RNNs, CNNs, GNNs, transformers, large language models, MLP-based models, and diffusion models. We first identify key challenges in the field, such as temporal dependency, efficiency, and cross-variable dependency, which drive the development of forecasting techniques. Then, the general advantages and limitations of each architecture are discussed to contextualize their adaptation in time series forecasting. Furthermore, we highlight promising design trends like multi-scale modeling, decomposition, and frequency-domain techniques, which are shaping the future of the field. This paper serves as a compact reference for researchers and practitioners seeking to understand the current landscape and future trajectory of deep learning in time series forecasting.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Assessment of integral models for non-Boussinesq lazy plumes using numerical simulations

Integral modelling of turbulent buoyant plumes is crucial for rapid predictions of plume characteristics. While the governing equations are typically derived using self-similarity and a Boussinesq approximation, these assumptions may not hold for plumes originating from finite-area sources with large density ratios. Here, this work evaluates the accuracy of integral-scale models for non-Boussinesq lazy plumes using high-fidelity numerical simulations of turbulent helium plumes. We analyse the plume kinematics by computing vertical fluxes, plume radius and radial profiles, establishing some disparities between common practice and physical accuracy. We identify how the definition of the plume radius changes the perception of the plume structure when the flow is not self-similar and derive a relationship between the flux-based and threshold-based definitions without requiring self-similarity. We then examine the plume dynamics by evaluating the source terms from the governing plume equations. Our results support neglecting diffusive and viscous effects but emphasise the importance of the mean pressure gradient, even in the self-similar regime. Two coefficients need to be modelled: the well-known entrainment coefficient and the lesser-known momentum correction coefficient, which is a correction required for the momentum equation to account for self-similar and slender approximations. The momentum correction coefficient is found to be approximately constant and slightly greater than the assumed value of 1. The standard entrainment coefficient models perform well up to a local Richardson number three times the asymptotic value but overpredict entrainment for larger Richardson numbers. We propose a correction using the known finite limit of entrainment at infinite Richardson number.

Meehan, Michael Alexander [Sandia National Laborat↗