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At least 217 records · Page 12

Output-Based Adaptive Meshing Applied to Space Launch System Booster Separation Analysis

This paper presents details of Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) simulations of the Space Launch System during solid-rocket booster separation using the Cart3D inviscid code with comparisons to Overflow viscous CFD results and a wind tunnel test performed at NASA Langley Research Center's Unitary PlanWind Tunnel. The Space Launch System (SLS) launch vehicle includes two solid-rocket boosters that burn out before the primary core stage and thus must be discarded during the ascent trajectory. The main challenges for creating an aerodynamic database for this separation event are the large number of basis variables (including orientation of the core, relative position and orientation of the boosters, and rocket thrust levels) and the complex flow caused by the booster separation motors. The solid-rocket boosters are modified from their form when used with the Space Shuttle Launch Vehicle, which has a rich flight history. However, the differences between the SLS core and the Space Shuttle External Tank result in the boosters separating with much narrower clearances, and so reducing aerodynamic uncertainty is necessary to clear the integrated system for flight. This paper discusses an approach that has been developed to analyze about 6000 wind tunnel simulations and 5000 flight vehicle simulations using Cart3D in adaptive-meshing mode. In addition, a discussion is presented of Overflow viscous CFD runs used for uncertainty quantification. Finally, the article presents lessons learned and improvements that will be implemented in future separation databases.

Booster↗

A Phenomenon-Based Decomposition of Model-Based Estimates of Boreal Winter ENSO Variability

Climate models are now routinely being used to simulate and predict climate variability on time scales ranging from sub-seasonal to seasonal and longer. As such, there are now long histories of such simulations and predictions spanning multiple decades and multiple ensemble members, both of which are crucial for separating climate signal from climate noise. A key focus of such runs has been the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), spurred by recent improvements in our ability to predict such events, though questions remain as to how well climate models do beyond simply always predicting the “canonical” atmospheric response to an ENSO event—something simple statistical models already do reasonably well. This is a critical issue that needs addressing, given the importance of event-to-event differences for predicting regional impacts of ENSO teleconnections, and the need to justify the expense of running sophisticated climate models. Unfortunately, current diagnostic tools are not well suited for quantifying the different sources of variability associated with specific phenomena such as ENSO. More generally, while much effort has focused on addressing model bias, less has been done to address errors in second moment statistics—an issue whose importance is gaining increased attention particularly as we build climate prediction systems capable of taking advantage of forecasts of opportunity—a capability that requires reliable estimates of forecast uncertainty. In this report, we outline a phenomenon-based statistical decomposition of climate variance(in essence a detailed variance budget)that is specifically tailored to address the above questions by separating the variability (both the signal and noise) into that tied to the long-term average impact of a particular phenomenon(the composite mean) and the event-to-event(E2E) variability about the composite mean. In addition, we provide related decompositions of the correlations that allow us to quantify how much of the agreement with observations (the skill) comes from the composite mean as opposed to from the E2Evariability. As an example, we present the results of such a decomposition for ENSO based on simulations with the GEOS atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), with a focus on the monthly mean impacts over North America during boreal winter(December –March). Here we take advantage of existing GEOS AGCM simulations that were produced as companion simulations to MERRA-2for the period 1980-2016. Comparisons are made throughout with MERRA-2.

ENSO↗

Variable stars in the Leo A dwarf galaxy (DDO 69)

Observations of the Leo A dwarf galaxy, obtained over the period from 1980 to 1991 are reported. Forty two separate Charge Coupled Devices (CCD) frames were searched for variable stars. A total of 14 suspected variables were found, 9 had sufficient coverage for period determination, and 5 had Cepheid light curves. Four of these stars fit well on a P-L relation and yield a distance modulus, after correction for Galactic foreground extinction, of m-M = 26.74. This corresponds to a distance of 2.2 Mpc, placing Leo A near the Local Group zero-velocity surface.

Hoessel, John G.↗

Multivariate Analysis of Solar Spectral Irradiance Measurements

Principal component analysis is used to characterize approximately 7000 downwelling solar irradiance spectra retrieved at the Southern Great Plains site during an Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) shortwave intensive operating period. This analysis technique has proven to be very effective in reducing a large set of variables into a much smaller set of independent variables while retaining the information content. It is used to determine the minimum number of parameters necessary to characterize atmospheric spectral irradiance or the dimensionality of atmospheric variability. It was found that well over 99% of the spectral information was contained in the first six mutually orthogonal linear combinations of the observed variables (flux at various wavelengths). Rotation of the principal components was effective in separating various components by their independent physical influences. The majority of the variability in the downwelling solar irradiance (380-1000 nm) was explained by the following fundamental atmospheric parameters (in order of their importance): cloud scattering, water vapor absorption, molecular scattering, and ozone absorption. In contrast to what has been proposed as a resolution to a clear-sky absorption anomaly, no unexpected gaseous absorption signature was found in any of the significant components.

Pilewskie, P.↗

Development, refinement, and testing of a short term solar flare prediction algorithm

During the period included in this report, the expenditure of time and effort, and progress toward performance of the tasks and accomplishing the goals set forth in the two year research grant proposal, consisted primarily of calibration and analysis of selected data sets. The heliographic limits of 30 degrees from central meridian were continued. As previously reported, all analyses are interactive and are performed by the Principal Investigator. It should also be noted that the analysis time involved by the Principal Investigator during this reporting period was limited, partially due to illness and partially resulting from other uncontrollable factors. The calibration technique (as developed by MSFC solar scientists), incorporates sets of constants which vary according to the wave length of the observation data set. One input constant is then varied interactively to correct for observing conditions, etc., to result in a maximum magnetic field strength (in the calibrated data), based on a separate analysis. There is some insecurity in the methodology and the selection of variables to yield the most self-consistent results for variable maximum field strengths and for variable observing/atmospheric conditions. Several data sets were analyzed using differing constant sets, and separate analyses to differing maximum field strength - toward standardizing methodology and technique for the most self-consistent results for the large number of cases. It may be necessary to recalibrate some of the analyses, but the sc analyses are retained on the optical disks and can still be used with recalibration where necessary. Only the extracted parameters will be changed.

Smith, Jesse B., Jr.↗

Variability of Springtime Transpacific Pollution Transport During 2000-2006: The INTEX-5 Mission in the Context of Previous Years

We analyze the transport of pollution across the Pacific during the NASA INTEX-B (Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment Part 8) campaign in spring 2006 and examine how this year compares to the time period for 2000 through 2006. In addition to aircraft measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) collected during INTEX-B, we include in this study multi-year satellite retrievals of CO from the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument and simulations from the chemistry transport model MOZART-4. Model tracers are used to examine the contributions of different source regions and source types to pollution levels over the Pacific. Additional modeling studies are performed to separate the impacts of inter-annual variability in meteorology and .dynamics from changes in source strength. interannual variability in the tropospheric CO burden over the Pacific and the US as estimated from the MOPITT data range up to 7% and a somewhat smaller estimate (5%) is derived from the model. When keeping the emissions in the model constant between years, the year-to-year changes are reduced (2%), but show that in addition to changes in emissions, variable meteorological conditions also impact transpacific pollution transport. We estimate that about 113 of the variability in the tropospheric CO loading over the contiguous US is explained by changes in emissions and about 213 by changes in meteorology and transport. Biomass burning sources are found to be a larger driver for inter-annual variability in the CO loading compared to fossil and biofuel sources or photochemical CO production even though their absolute contributions are smaller. Source contribution analysis shows that the aircraft sampling during INTEX-B was fairly representative of the larger scale region, but with a slight bias towards higher influence from Asian contributions.

Pfister, G. G.↗

Volcanic Stratospheric Injections up to 160 Tg(S) Yield a Eurasian Winter Warming Indistinguishable from Internal Variability

Early observational and modeling work suggested that low-latitude volcanic eruptions, comparable to the one of Pinatubo in 1991 or Krakatau in 1883, cause substantial surface warming over the northern continents at mid-latitudes in winter. The proposed mechanism consists of the formation of an anomalously strong Equator-to-pole temperature gradient in the stratosphere due to the presence of volcanic aerosols in the tropics, which are accompanied by an acceleration of the stratospheric polar vortex, which then shifts the Northern Annular Mode into a positive phase, resulting in warming surface temperatures over Eurasia. However, a large body of research in the past decade has shown that, for eruptions such as Pinatubo or Krakatau, no such warming is seen in simulations with more recent climate models which, in general, have much finer vertical and horizontal resolution than the early ones, and which have separated the forced response from the internal variability by using large ensembles of integrations. Since the proposed physical mechanism is sound, it is then possible that eruptions comparable to those of Pinatubo or Krakatau are simply too weak, but even larger ones might indeed be capable of causing Eurasian surface warming in winter. In this study, we explore this possibility using a state-of-the-art, stratosphere-resolving climate model, forced with prescribed aerosols from the Easy Volcanic Aerosol protocol. We consider eruptions with stratospheric sulfur injections of 5, 10, 20, 40, 80, and 160 Tg(S). With 20-member ensembles, we find that with injections of 20 Tg(S) or more – roughly twice the amplitude of the Pinatubo and Krakatau eruptions – our model simulates a winter surface warming over Eurasia, which is statistically significant with a t test given our 20-member ensembles. However, the forced volcanic signal on Eurasian winter surface temperatures is very small, barely exceeding the 1σ range of internal variability for the 160 Tg(S) injection case, and much smaller for smaller eruptions. Most importantly, the number of eruptions needed to establish statistical significance is considerably larger than the number of eruptions known to have occurred in the past 2000 years.

Volcanic eruptions↗

Climate Variability and Weather Extremes: Model-Simulated and Historical Data

Extremes in weather and climate encompass a wide array of phenomena including tropical storms, mesoscale convective systems, snowstorms, floods, heat waves, and drought. Understanding how such extremes might change in the future requires an understanding of their past behavior including their connections to large-scale climate variability and trends. Previous studies suggest that the most robust findings concerning changes in short-term extremes are those that can be most directly (though not completely) tied to the increase in the global mean temperatures. These include the findings that (IPCC 2007): There has been a widespread reduction in the number of frost days in mid-latitude regions in recent decades, an increase in the number of warm extremes, particularly warm nights, and a reduction in the number of cold extremes, particularly cold nights. For North America in particular (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): There are fewer unusually cold days during the last few decades. The last 10 years have seen a lower number of severe cold waves than for any other 10-year period in the historical record that dates back to 1895. There has been a decrease in the number of frost days and a lengthening of the frost-free season, particularly in the western part of North America. Other aspects of extremes such as the changes in storminess have a less clear signature of long term change, with considerable interannual, and decadal variability that can obscure any climate change signal. Nevertheless, regarding extratropical storms (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): The balance of evidence suggests that there has been a northward shift in the tracks of strong low pressure systems (storms) in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. For North America: Regional analyses suggest that there has been a decrease in snowstorms in the South and lower Midwest of the United States, and an increase in snowstorms in the upper Midwest and Northeast. Despite the progress already made, our understanding of the basic mechanisms by which extremes vary is incomplete. As noted in IPCC (2007), Incomplete global data sets and remaining model uncertainties still restrict understanding of changes in extremes and attribution of changes to causes, although understanding of changes in the intensity, frequency and risk of extremes has improved. Separating decadal and other shorter-term variability from climate change impacts on extremes requires a better understanding of the processes responsible for the changes. In particular, the physical processes linking sea surface temperature changes to regional climate changes, and a basic understanding of the inherent variability in weather extremes and how that is impacted by atmospheric circulation changes at subseasonal to decadal and longer time scales, are still inadequately understood. Given the fundamental limitations in the time span and quality of global observations, substantial progress on these issues will rely increasingly on improvements in models, with observations continuing to play a critical role, though less as a detection tool, and more as a tool for addressing physical processes, and to insure the quality of the climate models and the verisimilitude of the simulations (CCSP SAP 1.3, 2008).

Schubert, Siegfried D.↗

Inviscid and Viscous CFD Analysis of Booster Separation for the Space Launch System Vehicle

This paper presents details of Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) simulations of the Space Launch System during solid-rocket booster separation using the Cart3D inviscid and Overflow viscous CFD codes. The discussion addresses the use of multiple data sources of computational aerodynamics, experimental aerodynamics, and trajectory simulations for this critical phase of flight. Comparisons are shown between Cart3D simulations and a wind tunnel test performed at NASA Langley Research Center's Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel, and further comparisons are shown between Cart3D and viscous Overflow solutions for the flight vehicle. The Space Launch System (SLS) is a new exploration-class launch vehicle currently in development that includes two Solid Rocket Boosters (SRBs) modified from Space Shuttle hardware. These SRBs must separate from the SLS core during a phase of flight where aerodynamic loads are nontrivial. The main challenges for creating a separation aerodynamic database are the large number of independent variables (including orientation of the core, relative position and orientation of the boosters, and rocket thrust levels) and the complex flow caused by exhaust plumes of the booster separation motors (BSMs), which are small rockets designed to push the boosters away from the core by firing partially in the direction opposite to the motion of the vehicle.

Viscous↗

On Fully Developed Channel Flows: Some Solutions and Limitations, and Effects of Compressibility, Variable Properties, and Body Forces

An examination of the effects of compressibility, variable properties, and body forces on fully developed laminar flow has indicated several limitations on such streams. In the absence of a pressure gradient, but presence of a body force (e.g., gravity), an exact fully developed gas flow results. For a liquid this follows also for the case of a constant streamwise pressure gradient. These motions are exact in the sense of a Couette flow. In the liquid case two solutions (not a new result) can occur for the same boundary conditions. An approximate analytic solution was found which agrees closely with machine calculations.In the case of approximately exact flows, it turns out that for large temperature variations across the channel the effects of convection (due to, say, a wall temperature gradient) and frictional heating must be negligible. In such a case the energy and momentum equations are separated, and the solutions are readily obtained. If the temperature variations are small, then both convection effects and frictional heating can consistently be considered. This case becomes the constant-property incompressible case (or quasi-incompressible case for free-convection flows) considered by many authors. Finally there is a brief discussion of cases wherein streamwise variations of all quantities are allowed but only a such form that independent variables are separable. For the case where the streamwise velocity varies inversely as the square root distance along the channel a solution is given.

Maslen, Stephen H.↗

Irrigation Water Demand Sensitivity to Climate Variability across the Contiguous United States

Climate variability is an important driver of irrigation water use in many regions. Efforts to anticipate climate change impacts on future water availability can benefit from understanding how irrigation water demand has responded to these drivers to date. Here we apply satellite derived data, meteorological reanalysis, an advanced land surface model, and available state level reports to quantify irrigation demand sensitivities to temperature and precipitation across the Contiguous United States, for the period of 2002-2017. As expected, strong negative correlations are found between precipitation and irrigation withdrawals, both simulated and reported. Temperature sensitivities, however, vary by region and season, as do the interactive effects of temperature and precipitation on irrigation. Climate-induced irrigation variability is largest in transitional climate zones. These transitional zones are generally separate from the regions where rates of irrigation withdrawals are greatest, such that climate-induced variability in irrigation demand represents a water resource consideration that is distinct from chronic over pumping.

Wanshu Nie↗

Development and testing of a high cycle life 30 A-h sealed AgO-Zn battery

A two-phase program was initiated to investigate design parameters and technology to develop an improved AgO-Zn battery. The basic performance goal was 100 charge/discharge cycles (22 h/2 h) at 50 percent depth of discharge following a six-month period of charged stand at room temperature. Phase 1, cell evaluation, involved testing 70 cells in five-cell groups. The major design variables were active material ratios, electrolyte concentrations, separator systems, and negative plate shape. Phase 1 testing showed that cycle life could be improved 10 percent to 20 percent by using greater ratios of zinc to silver oxide and higher electrolyte concentrations. Wedge-shaped negatives increased cycle life by nearly 100 percent. Phase 2 battery evaluation, which was initiated before the Phase 1 results were known completely, involved evaluation of six designs as 19-cell batteries. Only one battery exceeded 100 cycles following nine months charged stand.

Bogner, R. S.↗

Development of explosively bonded TZM wire reinforced Columbian sheet composites

Methods of producing TZM molybdenum wire reinforced C129Y columbium alloy composites by explosive welding were studied. Layers of TZM molybdenum wire were wound on frames with alternate layers of C129Y columbium alloy foil between the wire layers. The frames held both the wire and foils in place for the explosive bonding process. A goal of 33 volume percent molybdenum wire was achieved for some of the composites. Variables included wire diameter, foil thickness, wire separation, standoff distance between foils and types and amounts of explosive. The program was divided into two phases: (1) development of basic welding parameters using 5 x 10-inch composites, and (2) scaleup to 10 x 20-inch composites.

Otto, H. E.↗

A Determination of the Optimum Time of Year for Remotely Classifying Marsh Vegetation from LANDSAT Multispectral Scanner Data

The author has identified the following significant results. A technique was used to determine the optimum time for classifying marsh vegetation from computer-processed LANDSAT MSS data. The technique depended on the analysis of data derived from supervised pattern recognition by maximum likelihood theory. A dispersion index, created by the ratio of separability among the class spectral means to variability within the classes, defined the optimum classification time. Data compared from seven LANDSAT passes acquired over the same area of Louisiana marsh indicated that June and September were optimum marsh mapping times to collectively classify Baccharis halimifolia, Spartina patens, Spartina alterniflora, Juncus roemericanus, and Distichlis spicata. The same technique was used to determine the optimum classification time for individual species. April appeared to be the best month to map Juncus roemericanus; May, Spartina alterniflora; June, Baccharis halimifolia; and September, Spartina patens and Distichlis spicata. This information is important, for instance, when a single species is recognized to indicate a particular environmental condition.

Butera, M. K.↗

Notes on the early-type components of W Cep, o Cet, CH Cyg, AR Mon, and BL Tel

Low resolution IUE spectra in both spectral regions are used to clarify the nature of the warmer components of several binary systems. The W Cep, the primary of which is a luminous K-type supergiant, shows an ultraviolet absorption spectrum of type B0 or B1; this system is heavily reddened. The hot companion of Mira (o Cet) is surprisingly faint in the short wavelength region, but it excites a rich emission spectrum from the surrounding gas. The ultraviolet active M7 giant CH Cyg is shown to be a binary with a hot companion. This system was also observed at high resolution and shows variable Fe II emission and well-separated circumstellar and interstellar absorptions within the broad Mg II emission profiles. The eclipsing binaries AR Mon and BL Tel are shown not to have hot companions.

Wing, R. F.↗

Parameter estimation for slit-type scanning sensors

The Infrared Astronomical Satellite, scheduled for launch into a 900 km near-polar orbit in August 1982, will perform an infrared point source survey by scanning the sky with slit-type sensors. The description of position information is shown to require the use of a non-Gaussian random variable. Methods are described for deciding whether separate detections stem from a single common source, and a formulism is developed for the scan-to-scan problems of identifying multiple sightings of inertially fixed point sources for combining their individual measurements into a refined estimate. Several cases are given where the general theory yields results which are quite different from the corresponding Gaussian applications, showing that argument by Gaussian analogy would lead to error.

Fowler, J. W.↗

Magellan in-flight gyro/star scanner misalignment calibration

Techniques are described for the in-flight calibration of gyro/star scanner misalignments for the Magellan spacecraft. The poor observability of one of the six components of misalignment is discussed in the context of a simple least-squares estimation model. The assumptions that lead to singularity in the information matrix are explicitly stated and it is shown that the singularity persists for all scanner slit configurations using only two slits, regardless of slit geometry or separation. A set of misalignment error state variables, a configuration of three stars, and a maneuver/scan sequence is described which yields a well-conditioned information matrix for least-squares estimation of five of the six misalignments. Finally, it is shown by convariance simulation that ground-based optimal estimation can satisfactorily resolve all six components of the misalignment error when more than two star scanner slits are used.

Boone, Jack N.↗

Sensitivity of Asian and African climate to variations in seasonal insolation, glacial ice cover, sea surface temperature, and Asian orography

A general circulation model was used to investigate the sensitivity of Asian and African climate to prescribed changes in boundary conditions with the objective of identifying the relative importance of individual high-latitude glacial boundary conditions on seasonal climate and providing a physical basis for interpreting the paleoclimate record. The circulation model is described and results are presented. Insolation forcing increased summer Asian monsoon winds, while increased high-latitude ice cover strengthened winter Asian trade winds causing decreased precipitation. These factors had little effect on African climate. Cooler North Atlantic sea surface temperatures enhanced winter trade winds over North Africa, southern Asian climate was relatively unaffected. Reducing Asian orography enhanced Asian winter circulation while decreasing the summer monsoon. These model results suggest that African and southern Asian climate respond differently to separate elements of high-latitude climate variability.

Demenocal, Peter B.↗