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The Global Albedo of the Moon at 1064 nm from LOLA

The Lunar Orbiter Laser Altimeter (LOLA) measures the backscattered energy of the returning altimetric laser pulse at its wavelength of 1064 nm, and these data are used to map the reflectivity of the Moon at zero-phase angle with a photometrically uniform data set. Global maps have been produced at 4 pixels per degree (about 8 kilometers at the equator) and 2 kilometers resolution within 20 deg latitude of each pole. The zero-phase geometry is insensitive to lunar topography, so these data enable characterization of subtle variations in lunar albedo, even at high latitudes where such measurements are not possible with the Sun as the illumination source. The geometric albedo of the Moon at 1064 nm was estimated from these data with absolute calibration derived from the Kaguya Multiband Imager and extrapolated to visual wavelengths. The LOLA estimates are within 2 sigma of historical measurements of geometric albedo. No consistent latitude-dependent variations in reflectance are observed, suggesting that solar wind does not dominate space weathering processes that modify lunar reflectance. The average normal albedo of the Moon is found to be much higher than that of Mercury consistent with prior measurements, but the normal albedo of the lunar maria is similar to that of Mercury suggesting a similar abundance of space weathering products. Regions within permanent shadow in the polar regions are found to be more reflective than polar surfaces that are sometimes illuminated. Limiting analysis to data with slopes less than 10 deg eliminates variations in reflectance due to mass wasting and shows a similar increased reflectivity within permanent polar shadow. Steep slopes within permanent shadow are also more reflective than similar slopes that experience at least some illumination. Water frost and a reduction in effectiveness of space weathering are offered as possible explanations for the increased reflectivity of permanent shadow; porosity is largely ruled out as the sole explanation. The south polar crater Shackleton is found to be among the most reflective craters in its size range globally but is not the most reflective, so mass wasting cannot be ruled out as a cause for the crater's anomalous reflectance. Models of the abundance of ice needed to account for the reflectance anomaly range from 3 to 14% by weight or area depending on assumptions regarding the effects of porosity on reflectance and whether ice is present as patches or is well mixed in the regolith. If differences in nanophase iron abundances are responsible for the anomaly, the permanently shadowed regions have between 50 and 80% the abundance of nanophase iron in mature lunar soil.

PSR↗

OSSE observations of Galactic 511 keV positron annihilation radiation - Initial phase 1 results

The Oriented Scintillation Spectrometer Experiment (OSSE) on the Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory (GRO) has performed numerous observations of the Galactic plane and Galactic center region to measure the distribution of Galactic 511 keV positron annihilation radiation and to search for time variability of the emission. The initial 511 keV line fluxes for the observations performed during the first 18 months of the GRO mission are presented. The 511 keV line flux for a typical Galactic center observation is (2.5 +/- 0.3) x 10 exp -4 gamma/sq cm per sec, where the quoted uncertainty represents the 1 sigma statistical uncertainty. No statistically significant time variability of the line flux has been observed; the 3 sigma upper limit to daily variations from the mean is 3 x 10 exp -4 gamma/sq cm per sec. The distribution of Galactic 511 keV positron annihilation radiation implied by the OSSE observations is discussed and compared with observations by other instruments.

Purcell, W. R.↗

SpIES: The Spitzer IRAC Equatorial Survey

We describe the first data release from the Spitzer-IRAC Equatorial Survey (SpIES); a large-area survey of approx.115 sq deg in the Equatorial SDSS Stripe 82 field using Spitzer during its "warm" mission phase. SpIES was designed to probe sufficient volume to perform measurements of quasar clustering and the luminosity function at z > or = 3 to test various models for "feedback" from active galactic nuclei (AGNs). Additionally, the wide range of available multi-wavelength, multi-epoch ancillary data enables SpIES to identify both high-redshift (z > or = 5) quasars as well as obscured quasars missed by optical surveys. SpIES achieves 5 sigma depths of 6.13 μJy (21.93 AB magnitude) and 5.75 μJy (22.0 AB magnitude) at 3.6 and 4.5 microns, respectively-depths significantly fainter than the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE). We show that the SpIES survey recovers a much larger fraction of spectroscopically confirmed quasars (approx.98%) in Stripe 82 than are recovered by WISE (∼55%). This depth is especially powerful at high-redshift (z > or = 3.5), where SpIES recovers 94% of confirmed quasars, whereas WISE only recovers 25%. Here we define the SpIES survey parameters and describe the image processing, source extraction, and catalog production methods used to analyze the SpIES data. In addition to this survey paper, we release 234 images created by the SpIES team and three detection catalogs: a 3.6 microns only detection catalog containing approx. 6.1 million sources, a 4.5 microns only detection catalog containing approx. 6.5 million sources, and a dual-band detection catalog containing approx. 5.4 million sources.

quasar clustering↗

Study of the Mu2e sensitivity to the $\mu^-\rightarrow e^+$ conversion process

The Mu2e experiment at Fermilab (Batavia, IL) will search for the coherent neutrinoless conversion of a muon into an electron in the electric field of an aluminum atom. The conversion process results in a monochromatic electron with energy slightly below the muon rest mass ($E_e= 104.97$ MeV). The experiment goal is to improve the previous measurement by four orders of magnitude and reach a single event sensitivity of $3 \times 10^{-17} $ on the conversion rate with respect to the muon capture rate. \\ The experiment will deliver a very intense pulsed negative muon beam to an aluminum target to achieve a total number of $10^{18}$ stopped muons in three years of running. Production and transport of the muons are accomplished with a sophisticated magnetic system comprised of a Production, a Transport and a Detector solenoid, with the last one hosting a Straw-tube Tracker and a Crystal Calorimeter. The entire detector region is surrounded by a Cosmic Ray Veto system. Mu2e is und er construction at the Muon Campus of Fermilab. \\ The INFN italian group is responsible for the design and construction of the crystal calorimeter, which plays a crucial role in the Mu2e measurement, providing particle identification capabilities fundamental for the rejection of the different background sources that can mimic a conversion electron. The calorimeter information allows also to improve the tracking performances it provides a fast standalone trigger for the experiment.\\ After a long R\&D phase, the final drawings see a calorimeter comprised of 1348 pure CsI crystals arranged in two annular disks. Each crystal is readout by two custom UV-extended Silicon Photomultipliers (SiPMs). Performances of the selected components were verified with an electron beam test, carried out in 2017 at the Beam Test Facility (BTF) at the National Laboratories of Frascati, on a large size prototype of 51 crystals and 102 SiPMs, confirming excellent energy ($\sigma_{E}/E = \mathcal{O }(10\%)$) and timing ($\sigma_{T} <500$ ps) resolutions in a! greement with the Mu2e specifications.\\ In the first chapters of this thesis, I describe my involvement in the calorimeter activities, with particular emphasis on the data analysis of the prototype energy response and resolution, that I was personally leading. Moreover, a description of the tuning of the simulation and the careful data-MC comparison is also reported.\\ An auxiliary measurement that can be performed with Mu2e is the search for a Lepton Number Violation (LNV) process where the negatively charged muon converts, without neutrinos, into a positron, $\mu ^{-} +N(A,Z) \rightarrow $ e$^+ +N(A,Z-2)$. At the moment of writing, Neutrinoless Double Beta Decay (0$\nu \beta \beta$) has set the most stringent limit on the LNV processes (T$^{0\nu \beta \beta}_{1/2} > 1.1 \times 10^{26} $ yr at 90$\%$ CL) with the GERDA experiment. In 0$\nu \beta \beta$ a pair of free electrons is created in the transformation from a nucleus $(A, Z)$ into its daughter $(A, Z + 2)$, namely: $(A,Z)\rightarrow (A, Z+2) =2 e^-$. Similar transitions could proceed through the emission of a pair of positrons, double electron capture (EC), or EC and single emission of a positron, with the nucleus changing from $(A, Z)$ to $(A, Z - 2)$. All these variations are equally interesting when discussing of new Physics, since they all manifest a non-conservation of the number of leptons.\\ Moreover, recent studies show that, because of flavor effect, off-diagonal processes, such as the $\mu^- -e^+$ conversion, can have their rate enhanced with respect to processes occurring in the $e-e$ sector.\\ Mu2e will search for $\mu^- + Al(27,13) \rightarrow e^+ +Na(27,11)$, only considering ground state transition, producing a conversion positron with energy $E_{e^+}= 92.32 $ MeV.\\ This thesis is focused on this search. In particular, I developed an algorithm to account for the radiative corrections to be applied to the conversion positrons that resulted in a few percent reduction in s ignal acceptance.\\ One of the most prominent background to ! this sear! ch is the Radiative Muon Capture (RMC) $ \mu+ N(Z,A)\rightarrow \gamma + \nu_{\mu} + N(Z-1,A)$. The produced photon can convert, virtually or in the detector materials (in the following referred as internal or external conversion respectively) in an electron-positron pair, producing positrons with energies approaching the expected conversion energy. Experimental results from previous experiments indicate the RMC endpoint ($\kmax$) to be of $\sim$ 90 MeV. A precise modeling of this background is relevant due to the proximity of the photon spectrum endpoint to the positron conversion energy. The calorimeter group is obviously interested to reconstruct the RMC distribution having also the opportunity to improve the current knowledge of the process. \\ A toy MC has been developed to evaluate the number of $e^+$ from external RMC background in the signal window. Knowing this value and ev...

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Deformation of as-cast LiF-22 mol pct CaF2 hypereutectic salt between 500 and 1015 K

Results are presented on compression tests conducted on as-cast LiF-22 mol pct CaF2 hypereutectic specimens at nominal strain rates between 1.8 x 10 to the -6th/sec and 0.25/sec over the temperature range 500-1015 K. In all instances, the stress-strain curves showed broad maxima, with negative strain-hardening rates after the peak stress sigma(max). It was found that, at low temperatures and high stresses, the CaF2 lamellae are rigid while the LiF matrix exhibits extensive transgranular cavitation, while at high temperatures and low stresses the CaF2 lamellae break down and spheroidize while the LiF matrix does not cavitate. It was concluded that the mechanical properties of the as-cast hypereutectic LiF-22 mol pct CaF2 are governed by the rate of deformation of the CaF2 phase. It is suggested that, for thermal energy storage applications, a spheroidal microstructure is more desirable than a lamellar structure.

Raj, S. V.↗

A Numerical Simulation of Scattering from One-Dimensional Inhomogeneous Dielectric Random Surfaces

In this paper, an efficient numerical solution for the scattering problem of inhomogeneous dielectric rough surfaces is presented. The inhomogeneous dielectric random surface represents a bare soil surface and is considered to be comprised of a large number of randomly positioned dielectric humps of different sizes, shapes, and dielectric constants above an impedance surface. Clods with nonuniform moisture content and rocks are modeled by inhomogeneous dielectric humps and the underlying smooth wet soil surface is modeled by an impedance surface. In this technique, an efficient numerical solution for the constituent dielectric humps over an impedance surface is obtained using Green's function derived by the exact image theory in conjunction with the method of moments. The scattered field from a sample of the rough surface is obtained by summing the scattered fields from all the individual humps of the surface coherently ignoring the effect of multiple scattering between the humps. The statistical behavior of the scattering coefficient sigma(sup 0) is obtained from the calculation of scattered fields of many different realizations of the surface. Numerical results are presented for several different roughnesses and dielectric constants of the random surfaces. The numerical technique is verified by comparing the numerical solution with the solution based on the small perturbation method and the physical optics model for homogeneous rough surfaces. This technique can be used to study the behavior of scattering coefficient and phase difference statistics of rough soil surfaces for which no analytical solution exists.

Sarabandi, Kamal↗

Calculation of space station infrared irradiance from atmosphere-induced emissions

The excitation mechanisms and radiance estimates over the 1 to 10 micron region for CO2(v), H2O(v), CO(v), OH(v), NO2(2B-2A) and N2(B3 pi - A3 sigma) are discussed. The infrared irradiance of the Space Station at an altitude of 460 km was estimated. The surface material was presumed to be non-carbonaceous and inert. The determined number densities of the various gases relevant to the Space Station from both ambient and outgassing sources are presented. A model for the production of and emission from the infrared active molecules was constructed that considers two classes of production processes: (1) gas phase excitation of molecules in the near Station environment by collision with ambient flux; and (2) surface processes that lead to molecular excitation. A composite spectrum of all major emitting species shows that the observed irradiance is non-uniform over the 1 to 8 micron region. The comparison of predicted irradiance with the zodiacal background indicates that the Space Station infrared background from atmosphere-induced emissions may be a problem of consequence.

Fraser, M. E.↗

Formation Of the Giant Planets By Concurrent Accretion Of Solids And Gas

New numerical simulations of the formation of the giant planets are presented, in which for the first time both the gas and planetesimal accretion rates are calculated in a self-consistent, interactive fashion. The simulations combine three elements: 1) three-body accretion cross-sections of solids onto an isolated planetary embryo, 2) a stellar evolution code for the planet's gaseous envelope, and 3) a planetesimal dissolution code within the envelope, used to evaluate the planet's effective capture radius and the energy deposition profile of accreted material. Major assumptions include: The planet is embedded in a disk of gas and small planetesimals with locally uniform initial surface mass density, and planetesimals are not allowed to migrate into or out of the planet's feeding zone. All simulations are characterized by three major phases. During the first phase, the planet's mass consists primarily of solid material. The planetesimal accretion rate, which dominates that of gas, rapidly increases owing to runaway accretion, then decreases as the planet's feeding zone is depleted. During the second phase, both solid and gas accretion rates are small and nearly independent of time. The third phase, marked by runaway gas accretion, starts when the solid and gas masses are about equal. It is engendered by a strong positive feedback on the gas accretion rates, driven by the rapid contraction of the gaseous envelope and the rapid expansion of the outer boundary, which depends on the planet's total mass. The overall evolutionary time scale is generally determined by the length of the second phase. The actual rates at which the giant planets accreted small planetesimals is probably intermediate between the constant rates assumed in most previous studies and the highly variable rates that we have used. Within the context, of the adopted model of planetesimal accretion, the joint constraints of the time scale for dissipation of the solar nebula and the current high-Z masses of the giant planets lead to estimates of the initial surface density (sigma(sub init)) of planetesimals in the outer region of the solar nebula. The results show sigma(sub init) approx. = 10 g/sq cm near Jupiter's orbit and that sigma(sub init) proportional to alpha(sup -2), where alpha is the distance from the Sun. These values are a factor of 3 - 4 times as high as that of the "minimum mass" solar nebula at Jupiter's distance and a factor of 2 - 3 times as high it Saturn's distance. Our estimates for the formation time of Jupiter and Saturn are 1 - 10 million years while those for Uranus fall in the range of 2 - 16 million years. These estimates follow from the properties of our Solar System and do not necessarily apply to giant planets in other planetary systems.

Pollack, James B.↗

Follow That Satellite: EO-1 Maneuvers into Closed Formation With Landsat-7

As the Landsat-7 spacecraft continued NASA's historic program of earth imaging, begun over three decades ago, NASA launched the Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) spacecraft carrying examples of the next generation of Landsat-7 instruments. The validation method for these instruments was to have EO-1 fly in a close formation behind Landsat-7 on the same World Reference System path. From that formation hundreds of near coincident images would be taken by each spacecraft and compared to evaluate improvements in the EO-1 instruments. This paper will address the mission analysis required to launch and maneuver EO-1 into the formation with Landsat-7 where instrument validation was to occur plus a summary of completing the formation acquisition. EO-1 is required to operate one minute +/- 6 seconds behind Landsat-7 during the period of co-fly imaging with a cross track separation of within + 3 kilometers. This separation time can also be stated as a one minute +/- 6 seconds time difference in the Mean Local Time (MLT) at the descending nodes. Achieving the required MLT is heavily dependent on the time of launch. The EO-1 launch window, which had to accommodate the dual payloads of EO-1 and SAC-C, was very limited ranging from 0 to 22 seconds over the 16 day Landsat-7 WRS repeat cycle during which EO-1 was launched. Each EO-1 launch opportunity that occurred on a different day of a Landsat-7 16 day repeat cycle required a separate and distinct maneuver profile. These profiles varied significantly in duration and amount of onboard propellant required to achieve them. EO-1 launched on a day judged to have "medium" resource requirements for achieving the formation with Landsat-7. To phase EO-1 one minute behind Landsat-7 in the along track direction, a series of altitude adjusts separated by specific drift intervals were executed. Additional maneuvers slightly changed the EO-1 inclination to maintain the MLT requirements. Orbit maneuvers were planned and executed within errors of less than 1.5 percent and propellant usage was near nominal consuming 3.4 kilograms out of a launch and early orbit budget of 11 kilograms. The pre-launch 3 -sigma propellant budget allowed for 1+ years of EO-1 mission life. The success of the EO-1 launch and early orbit operations provided sufficient propellant for nearly 4 years of on orbit operations. Special action taken during the EO-1 maneuver period involved some maneuver re-planning to reduce concerns about a potential close approach between EO-1 and Landsat-7. The result of this re-planning was a safer close approach and improvement in future formation acquisition planning.

DeFazio, Robert↗

2016 Mars Insight Mission Design and Navigation

Scheduled for a launch in the 2016 Earth to Mars opportunity, the Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy, and Heat Transport (InSight) Mission will arrive to Mars in late September 2016 with the primary objective of placing a science lander on the surface of the Red Planet followed by the deployment of two science instruments to investigate the fundamental processes of terrestrial planet formation and evolution. In order to achieve a successful landing, the InSight Project has selected a launch/arrival strategy that satisfies the following key and driving requirements: (1) Deliver a total launch mass of 727 kg, (2) target a nominal landing site with a cumulative Delta V99 less than 30 m/s, and (3) approach EDL with a V-infinity upper limit of 3.941 km/s and (4) an entry flight-path angle (EFPA) of -12.5 +/- 0.26 deg, 3-sigma; the InSight trajectories have been designed such that they (5) provide UHF-band communications via Direct-To-Earth and MRO from Entry through landing plus 60 s, (6) with injection aimpoints biased away from Mars such that the probability of the launch vehicle upper stage impacting Mars is less than 1.0 X 10(exp 4) for fifty years after launch, and (7) non-nominal impact probabilities due to failure during the Cruise phase less than 1.0 X 10(exp 2).

Landers↗

Spectrophotometry of peculiar B and A stars. XVIII - The helium rich variable stars HR 1890, Sigma Orionis E, and HD 37776

Optical region spectrophotometry at 3300-7850 A has been obtained for three helium rich stars, HR 1890, Sigma Ori E, and HD 37776, of the Orion OB1 Association. New uvby-beta photometry of HR 1890 and HD 37776 as well as published data are also used to investigate the variability of these stars. A new period of 1.53862 days was determined for HD 37776. For all three stars H-beta varies in antiphase with strong He I lines. The spectrophotometric bandpass containing the strong He I line at 4471 A varies in phase with the R index of Pedersen and Thomsen (1977). Evidence is found for weak absorption features which appear to be an extension of the 5200 A feature seen in cooler CP stars.

Adelman, S. J.↗

Tuning and Robustness Analysis for the Orion Absolute Navigation System

The Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) is currently under development as NASA's next-generation spacecraft for exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit. The MPCV is set to perform an orbital test flight, termed Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1), some time in late 2014. The navigation system for the Orion spacecraft is being designed in a Multi-Organizational Design Environment (MODE) team including contractor and NASA personnel. The system uses an Extended Kalman Filter to process measurements and determine the state. The design of the navigation system has undergone several iterations and modifications since its inception, and continues as a work-in-progress. This paper seeks to show the efforts made to-date in tuning the filter for the EFT-1 mission and instilling appropriate robustness into the system to meet the requirements of manned space ight. Filter performance is affected by many factors: data rates, sensor measurement errors, tuning, and others. This paper focuses mainly on the error characterization and tuning portion. Traditional efforts at tuning a navigation filter have centered around the observation/measurement noise and Gaussian process noise of the Extended Kalman Filter. While the Orion MODE team must certainly address those factors, the team is also looking at residual edit thresholds and measurement underweighting as tuning tools. Tuning analysis is presented with open loop Monte-Carlo simulation results showing statistical errors bounded by the 3-sigma filter uncertainty covariance. The Orion filter design uses 24 Exponentially Correlated Random Variable (ECRV) parameters to estimate the accel/gyro misalignment and nonorthogonality. By design, the time constant and noise terms of these ECRV parameters were set to manufacturer specifications and not used as tuning parameters. They are included in the filter as a more analytically correct method of modeling uncertainties than ad-hoc tuning of the process noise. Tuning is explored for the powered-flight ascent phase, where measurements are scarce and unmodelled vehicle accelerations dominate. On orbit, there are important trade-off cases between process and measurement noise. On entry, there are considerations about trading performance accuracy for robustness. Process Noise is divided into powered flight and coasting ight and can be adjusted for each phase and mode of the Orion EFT-1 mission. Measurement noise is used for the integrated velocity measurements during pad alignment. It is also used for Global Positioning System (GPS) pseudorange and delta- range measurements during the rest of the flight. The robustness effort has been focused on maintaining filter convergence and performance in the presence of unmodeled error sources. These include unmodeled forces on the vehicle and uncorrected errors on the sensor measurements. Orion uses a single-frequency, non-keyed GPS receiver, so the effects due to signal distortion in Earth's ionosphere and troposphere are present in the raw measurements. Results are presented showing the efforts to compensate for these errors as well as characterize the residual effect for measurement noise tuning. Another robustness tool in use is tuning the residual edit thresholds. The trade-off between noise tuning and edit thresholds is explored in the context of robustness to errors in dynamics models and sensor measurements. Measurement underweighting is also presented as a method of additional robustness when processing highly accurate measurements in the presence of large filter uncertainties.

Holt, Greg N.↗

Modifications to the steady-state 41-node thermoregulatory model including validation of the respiratory and diffusional water loss equations

After the simplified version of the 41-Node Stolwijk Metabolic Man Model was implemented on the Sigma 3 and UNIVAC 1110 computers in batch mode, it became desirable to make certain revisions. First, the availability of time-sharing terminals makes it possible to provide the capability and flexibility of conversational interaction between user and model. Secondly, recent physiological studies show the need to revise certain parameter values contained in the model. Thirdly, it was desired to make quantitative and accurate predictions of evaporative water loss for humans in an orbiting space station. The result of the first phase of this effort are reported.

Source record↗

Statistical analysis of AFE GN&C aeropass performance

Performance of the guidance, navigation, and control (GN&C) system used on the Aeroassist Flight Experiment (AFE) spacecraft has been studied with Monte Carlo techniques. The performance of the AFE GN&C is investigated with a 6-DOF numerical dynamic model which includes a Global Reference Atmospheric Model (GRAM) and a gravitational model with oblateness corrections. The study considers all the uncertainties due to the environment and the system itself. In the AFE's aeropass phase, perturbations on the system performance are caused by an error space which has over 20 dimensions of the correlated/uncorrelated error sources. The goal of this study is to determine, in a statistical sense, how much flight path angle error can be tolerated at entry interface (EI) and still have acceptable delta-V capability at exit to position the AFE spacecraft for recovery. Assuming there is fuel available to produce 380 ft/sec of delta-V at atmospheric exit, a 3-sigma standard deviation in flight path angle error of 0.04 degrees at EI would result in a 98-percent probability of mission success.

Chang, Ho-Pen↗

CCKT Calculation of e-H Total Cross Sections

We are in the process of carrying out calculations of e-H total cross sections using the 'complex-correlation Kohn-T' (CCKT) method. In a later paper, we described the methodology more completely, but confined calculations to the elastic scattering region, with definitive, precision results for S-wave phase shifts. Here we extend the calculations to the (low) continuum (1 much less than k(exp 2) much less than 3) using a Green's function formulation. This avoids having to solve integro-differential equations; rather we evaluate indefinite integrals involving appropriate Green's functions and the (complex) optical potential to find the scattering function u(r). From the asymptotic form of u(r) we extract a T(sub L) which is a complex number. From T(sub L), elastic sigma(sub L)(elastic) = 4pi(2L+1)((absolute value of T(sub L))(exp 2)), and total sigma (sub L)(total) = 4pi/k(2L+1)Im(T(sub L)) cross sections follow.

Bhatia, Aaron K.↗

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Mission Formulation

The Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission is one of the first-tier projects recommended by the U.S. National Research Council Committee on Earth Science and Applications from Space. The SMAP mission is in formulation phase and it is scheduled for launch in 2014. The SMAP mission is designed to produce high-resolution and accurate global mapping of soil moisture and its freeze/thaw state using an instrument architecture that incorporates an L-band (1.26 GHz) radar and an L-band (1.41 GHz) radiometer. The simultaneous radar and radiometer measurements will be combined to derive global soil moisture mapping at 9 [km] resolution with a 2 to 3 days revisit and 0.04 [cm3 cm-3] (1 sigma) soil water content accuracy. The radar measurements also allow the binary detection of surface freeze/thaw state. The project science goals address in water, energy and carbon cycle science as well as provide improved capabilities in natural hazards applications.

microwave↗

Measuring rapid ocean tidal earth orientation variations with very long baseline interferometry

Ocean tidal effects on universal time and polar motion (UTPM) are investigated at four nearly diurnal (K(sub 1), P(sub 1), O(sub 1), and Q(sub 1)) and four nearly semidiurnal (K(sub 2), S(sub 2), M(sub 2), and N(sub 2)) frequencies by analyzing very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) data extending from 1978 to 1992. We discuss limitations of comparisons between experiment and theory for the retograde nearly diurnal polar motion components due to their degeneracy with prograde components of the nutation model. Estimating amplitudes of contributions to the modeled VLBI observables at these eight frequencies produces a statistically highly significant improvement of 7 mm to the residuals of a fit to the observed delays. Use of such an improved UTPM model also reduces the 14-30 mm scatter of baseline lengths about a time-linear model of tectonic motion by 3-14 mm, also withhigh significance levels. A total of 28 UTPM ocean tidal amplitudes can be unambiguously estimated from the data, with resulting UTI and PM magnitudes as large as 21 micro secs and 270 microarc seconds and formal uncertainties of the order of 0.3 micro secs and 5 microarc secs for UTI and PM, respectively. Empirically determined UTPM amplitudes and phases are com1pared to values calculated theoretically by Gross from Seiler's global ocean tide model. The discrepancy between theory and experiment is larger by a factor of 3 for UTI amplitudes (9 micro secs) than for prograde PM amplitudes (42 microarc secs). The 14-year VLBI data span strongly attenuates the influence of mismodeled effects on estimated UTPM amplitudes and phases that are not coherent with the eight frequencies of interest. Magnitudes of coherent and quasi-coherent systematic errors are quantified by means of internal consistency tests. We conclude that coherent systematic effects are many times larger than the formal uncertainties and can be as large as 4 micro secs for UTI and 60 microarc secs for polar motion. On the basis of such ealistic error estimates, 22 of the 31 fitted UTPM ocean tidal amplitudes differ from zero by more than 2 sigma.

Sovers, O. J.↗

Long-Range Solar Activity Predictions: A Reprieve from Cycle #24's Activity

We discuss the field of long-range solar activity predictions and provide an outlook into future solar activity. Orbital predictions for satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) depend strongly on exospheric densities. Solar activity forecasting is important in this regard, as the solar ultra-violet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiations inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the exosphere in which satellites orbit. Rather than concentrate on statistical, or numerical methods, we utilize a class of techniques (precursor methods) which is founded in physical theory. The geomagnetic precursor method was originally developed by the Russian geophysicist, Ohl, using geomagnetic observations to predict future solar activity. It was later extended to solar observations, and placed within the context of physical theory, namely the workings of the Sun s Babcock dynamo. We later expanded the prediction methods with a SOlar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) index. The SODA index is a measure of the buried solar magnetic flux, using toroidal and poloidal field components. It allows one to predict future solar activity during any phase of the solar cycle, whereas previously, one was restricted to making predictions only at solar minimum. We are encouraged that solar cycle #23's behavior fell closely along our predicted curve, peaking near 192, comparable to the Schatten, Myers and Sofia (1996) forecast of 182+/-30. Cycle #23 extends from 1996 through approximately 2006 or 2007, with cycle #24 starting thereafter. We discuss the current forecast of solar cycle #24, (2006-2016), with a predicted smoothed F10.7 radio flux of 142+/-28 (1-sigma errors). This, we believe, represents a reprieve, in terms of reduced fuel costs, etc., for new satellites to be launched or old satellites (requiring reboosting) which have been placed in LEO. By monitoring the Sun s most deeply rooted magnetic fields; long-range solar activity can be predicted. Although a degree of uncertainty in the long-range predictions remains, requiring future monitoring, we do not expect the next cycle's + 2-sigma value will rise significantly above solar cycle #23's activity level.

Richon, K.↗