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DOE OSTI2025

Projected changes in cross-equatorial northerly surges and their hydrological impacts in the near future

Recent decades have witnessed unprecedented extreme precipitation and catastrophic flooding in some of the most populated regions in Southeast Asia during boreal winter. These extreme events are often influenced by the cross-equatorial northerly surge (CENS), characterized by a strengthening of northerly moist monsoon winds south of the equator in the western Maritime Continent. However, the potential future changes in CENS and its hydrological impacts remain underexplored. Here, using an ensemble of high-resolution climate model simulations (CMIP6 HighResMIP), we show that the regional impacts of CENS on the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events are projected to significantly increase in the near future (2030–2050), particularly over the adjacent coastal regions of southern Indonesia and northwestern Australia. More specifically, the risk of CENS-related extreme precipitation is projected to increase by up to 39 ± 1.2% relative to the seasonal probability, despite no apparent changes in the CENS characteristics in the near future. Such stronger impact is attributed to the enhanced moistening efficiency and moist static instability due to a more humid and warmer environment, which leads to more intense CENS convection. Our results suggest the need for effective monitoring and disaster managements to respond to the increasing severity of such events in the near future.

Climate sciences↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Comparative Analysis of Lithium-Ion Battery Chemistries for Cold-Climate Maritime Applications

Energy storage, primarily in the form of electrochemical batteries, is critical for enabling integration of marine energy (e.g., power from waves and currents) with end-use applications at sea due to the periodicity of the resources and requirement of consistent, smooth power delivery. Powering high-latitude coastal or ocean-based observing systems has been identified as a high value-proposition use case, exemplifying the concept of Powering the Blue Economy. An existing power system implementation for such a platform uses solar panels coupled to rechargeable lithium-ion batteries, augmented by a non-rechargeable backup bank used to power heaters in winter months. As wave energy is a potential resource for powering this and similar use cases and is strongest when solar power is most limited, it was hypothesized that integration of wave power would alleviate some of the challenges in cold climates related to energy storage. In this work, we investigate the use case scenario in simulation and perform a comparative test of commercially-available lithium-ion battery chemistry formulations to determine the most appropriate choice for the application. The experiment compared the most commonly-used lithium-based battery types (NCM, NCA, and LFP) in laboratory conditions emulating a battery enclosure thermally coupled to freezing seawater using an industrial battery performance tester in PNNL's arctic simulation lab. Battery strings were repeatedly cycled (i.e., charged, discharged, rested) and their usable capacity was measured. Both NCM and NCA strings exhibited degradation upon cycling, while the LFP string maintained stable operation through over 700 complete cycles. Though lower in baseline capacity, LFP are recommended for this and similar low-temperature applications with access to high levels of bulk charging current (e.g., from high-energy wave events) and their use may reduce the cost and complexity of battery conditioning and protection apparatus.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2024

A valuation framework for customers impacted by extreme temperature-related outages

Extreme temperature outages can lead to not just economic losses but also various non-energy impacts (NEI), such as increased mortality rates, property damage, and reduced productivity, due to significant degradation of indoor operating conditions caused by service disruptions. However, existing resilience assessment approaches lack specificity for extreme temperature conditions. They often overlook temperature-related mortality and neglect the customer characteristics and grid response in the calculation, despite the significant influence of these factors on NEI-related economic losses. This paper aims to address these gaps by introducing a comprehensive framework to estimate the impact of resilience enhancement not only on the direct economic losses incurred by customers but also on potential NEI, including mortality and the value of statistical life during extreme temperature-related outages. The proposed resilience valuation integrates customer characteristics and grid response variables based on a scalable grid simulation environment. This study adopts a holistic approach to quantify customer-oriented economic impacts, utilizing probabilistic loss scenarios that incorporate health-related factors and damage/loss models as a function of exposure for valuation. The proposed methodology is demonstrated through comparative resilient outage planning, using grid response models emulating a Texas weather zone during the 2021 winter storm Uri. The case study results show that enhanced outage planning with hardened infrastructure can improve the system resilience and thereby reduce the relative risk of mortality by 16% and save the total costs related to non-energy impacts by 74%. In conclusion, these findings underscore the efficacy of the framework by assessing the financial implications of each case, providing valuable insights for decision-makers and stakeholders involved in extreme-weather related resilience planning for risk management and mitigation strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Attribution of NAO Predictive Skill Beyond 2 Weeks in Boreal Winter

Weeks 3–6 averaged winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) predictive skill in a state-of-the-art coupled climate prediction system is attributed to two principle sources: upper and lower boundary conditions linked to the stratosphere and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), respectively. A 20-member ensemble of 45-day reforecasts over 1999–2015 is utilized, together with uninitialized simulations with the atmospheric component of the prediction system forced with observed radiative forcing and lower boundary conditions. NAO forecast skill for lead times out to 6 weeks is higher following extreme stratospheric polar vortex conditions (weak and strong vortex events) compared to neutral states. Enhanced weeks 3-6 NAO predictive skill for weak vortex events results primarily from stratospheric downward coupling to the troposphere, while enhanced skill for strong vortex events can be partly attributed to lower boundary forcing related to the ENSO phenomenon. Implications for forecast system development and improvement are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Loosely Conditioned Emulation of Global Climate Models With Generative Adversarial Networks

Climate models encapsulate our best understanding of the Earth system, allowing research to be conducted on its future under alternative assumptions of how human-driven climate forces are going to evolve. An important application of climate models is to provide metrics of mean and extreme climate changes, particularly under these alternative future scenarios, as these quantities drive the impacts of climate on society and natural systems. Because of the need to explore a wide range of alternative scenarios and other sources of uncertainties in a computationally efficient manner, climate models can only take us so far, as they require significant computational resources, especially when attempting to characterize extreme events, which are rare and thus demand long and numerous simulations in order to accurately represent their changing statistics. Here we use deep learning in a proof of concept that lays the foundation for emulating global climate model output for different scenarios. We train two "loosely conditioned" Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) that emulate daily precipitation output from a fully coupled Earth system model: one GAN modeling Fall-Winter behavior and the other Spring-Summer. Our GANs are trained to produce spatiotemporal samples: 32 days of precipitation over a 64x128 regular grid discretizing the globe. We evaluate the generator with a set of related performance metrics based upon KL divergence, and find the generated samples to be nearly as well matched to the test data as the validation data is to test. We also find the generated samples to accurately estimate the mean number of dry days and mean longest dry spell in the 32 day samples. Our trained GANs can rapidly generate numerous realizations at a vastly reduced computational expense, compared to large ensembles of climate models, which greatly aids in estimating the statistics of extreme events.

climate emulation, extreme climate, impacts, machi↗

DOE OSTI2023

Explicitly determined sea ice emissivity and emission temperature over the Arctic for surface–sensitive microwave channels

Data assimilation of satellite microwave measurements is one of the important keys to improving weather forecasting over the Arctic region. However, the use of surface-sensitive microwave-sounding channel measurements for data assimilation or retrieval has been limited, especially during winter, due to the poorly constrained sea ice emissivity. In this study, aiming at more use of those channel measurements in the data assimilation, we propose an explicit method for specifying the surface radiative boundary conditions (namely emissivity and emitting layer temperature of snow and ice). These were explicitly determined with a radiative transfer model for snow and ice and with snow/ice physical parameters (i.e., snow/ice depths and vertical distributions of temperature, density, salinity, and grain size) simulated from the thermodynamically-driven snow/ice growth model. Here we conducted 1-D Var experiments in order to examine whether this approach can help to use the surface-sensitive microwave temperature channel measurements over the Arctic sea ice region for data assimilation. Results show that (1) the surface-sensitive microwave channels can be used in the 1-D Var retrieval, and (2) the specification of the radiative boundary condition at the surface using the snow/sea ice emission model can significantly improve the atmospheric temperature retrieval, especially in the lower troposphere (500 hPa to surface). The successful retrieval suggests that useful information can be extracted from surface-sensitive microwave-sounding channel radiances over sea ice surfaces through the explicit determination of snow/ice emissivity and emitting layer temperature.

1-D Var retrieval↗

DOE OSTI2020

Feedbacks Between Surface Deformation and Permafrost Degradation in Ice Wedge Polygons, Arctic Coastal Plain, Alaska

In the past three decades, an abrupt, pan-Arctic acceleration of ice wedge melting has transformed tundra landscapes, spurring the formation of hummock-like features known as high-centered polygons (HCPs). This rapid geomorphic transition profoundly alters regional hydrology and influences surface emissions of CO 2 and CH 4 . In Arctic Alaska, most recent instances of ice wedge degradation have arrested within 15–20 years of inception, stabilizing HCP microtopography. However, feedbacks between ground surface deformation and permafrost stability are incompletely understood, limiting our capacity to predict trajectories of landscape evolution in a still warmer future. In this work, we use field data from a site near Prudhoe Bay, Alaska, to develop a modeling-based framework for assessing the strength of positive (i.e., exacerbating) feedbacks on ice wedge degradation, focusing on the importance of heterogeneity in surface drainage and microtopographic conditions. Our simulations suggest that, when troughs are narrow, positive feedbacks on ice wedge melting (associated with thermokarst pool formation) are relatively weak. Positive feedbacks are markedly stronger beneath wide troughs, such as those that form above older, larger ice wedges. Seasonal thaw abruptly accelerates once a talik begins to form beneath wide and deep thermokarst pools. Once a talik initiates, winter severity and snowpack thickness increase in importance as predictors of thaw intensity in summer. Our results indicate that meter-scale heterogeneity in polygonal microtopography potentially exerts strong, nonlinear controls on thermokarst trajectories. These findings are useful for predicting future thermokarst dynamics and for interpreting the results from coarser-resolution land surface models operating at greater spatial and temporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Enriched East Asian oxygen isotope of precipitation indicates reduced summer seasonality in regional climate and westerlies

Speleothem oxygen isotope records over East Asia reveal apparently large and rapid paleoclimate changes over the last several hundred thousand years. However, what the isotopic variation actually represent in terms of the regional climate and circulation is debated. We present an answer that emerges from an analysis of the interannual variation in amount-weighted annual δ 18 O of precipitation over East Asia as simulated by an isotope-enabled model constrained by large-scale atmospheric reanalysis fields. 18 O-enriched years have reduced summer seasonality both in terms of precipitation isotopes and in the large-scale circulation. Changes occur between June and October, where the δ 18 O of precipitation (δ 18 O p ) transitions from the isotopically heavier winter to the lighter summer regime. For 18 O-enriched years, this transition is less pronounced. Variations in precipitation amount alone are insufficient to explain the amount-weighted annual δ 18 O p between 18 O-enriched and 18 O-depleted years. Reduced summer seasonality is also expressed in the low-level monsoonal southerlies and upper-level westerlies; for the latter, the northward migration across the Tibetan Plateau in the summer is less pronounced. Our result thus implicates the westerlies across the plateau as the proximate cause of East Asian paleomonsoon changes, manifested as a modulation of its summer peak.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity of Cloud-Radiative Effects to Cloud Fraction Parametrizations in Tropical, Mid-Latitude and Arctic Kilometre-Scale Simulations

The Regional Atmosphere (RA) configuration of the Met Office Unified Model currently requires different cloud fraction parametrizations (CFP) for tropical and midlatitude simulations. To explore the scope for unification of these two RA configurations, this paper presents a detailed evaluation of simulations over tropical, midlatitude and arctic domains, with two different diagnostic CFPs, a prognostic CFP, and no CFP at all. Furthermore, a novel, hybrid approach was used that treats liquid cloud diagnostically and ice cloud prognostically. Using observations from three U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement supersites, it is shown that none of these CFPs stands out as superior over all domains. Over the frequently overcast Arctic, the all-or-nothing approach best captures the cloud radiative properties. Conversely, CFPs are of benefit in regions with frequent partial cloudiness, such as the midlatitudes and the tropics. However, their improved cloud radiative properties often hide an error compensation. All models underestimate overcast, low-base cloud with small water paths in convective environments. In addition, mid-latitude overcast, low-base, optically thick clouds in the morning, possibly associated with overnight convection, are frequently too broken. Diagnostic schemes compensate for these errors by producing spurious, scattered afternoon cloud, which could be due to a correct cloud response to too eager convective initiation. Winter clouds over the midlatitudes are improved when liquid cloud is represented diagnostically with a bimodal saturation-departure PDF, without error compensation. While it is difficult to unify the RA across the globe around a single CFP scheme, the newly proposed Hybrid scheme performs reasonably well for cloud cover across all regions. It also exhibits SW biases that are smaller than most other configurations and is less affected by excessive liquid water paths and compensating errors than fully diagnostic schemes. Surface precipitation is fairly insensitive to the CFP in the simulations shown here.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Projecting spatiotemporally explicit effects of climate change on stream temperature: A model comparison and implications for coldwater fishes

Conservation planners and resource managers seek information about how the availability and locations of cold-water habitats will change in the future and how these predictions vary among models. In this work, we used a physical process-based model to demonstrate the implications of climate change for streamflow and water temperature in two watersheds with distinctive flow regimes: the Snoqualmie watershed (WA) and Siletz watershed (OR), USA. Our model incorporated a downscaled ensemble of global climate model outputs and was calibrated with in situ and remotely sensed water temperatures. Furthermore, we compared predictions from our processed-based model to those from a publicly available and widely used statistical model. The process-based model projected greater changes in summer maximum water temperatures for the mixed-rain-snow Snoqualmie watershed than for the rain-dominated Siletz watershed as a result of the near-complete loss of winter snowpack and significant reduction in summer flow in the Snoqualmie watershed expected by the 2080s. Both models projected generally similar future spatial patterns of maximum water temperature in the two rivers, with cool reaches distributed farther upstream and fewer in number. However, the process-based model projected higher spatial heterogeneity in water temperature due to our spatially explicit simulation of streamflow and because we calibrated the model with spatially continuous remotely sensed water temperature data. We used stream temperature projections to assess the vulnerability of Pacific salmon and trout to changes in the spatial distribution of cold-water habitats during August by the 2080s. Results suggest that salmonids may have fewer summertime cold-water habitats in both watersheds. Projected stream warming may further limit particular species and life stages, especially in the Snoqualmie watershed. Our comparison of models highlights the importance of considering what might be gained by using a process-based model for evaluating and prioritizing management actions that mitigate climate impacts on cold-water habitats for stream fishes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

BENEFIT with Northeastern University: HVAC Hardware-in-the-Loop Experimental Testing of a Heat Pump and Air Conditioner

This dataset includes HVAC Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) experimental results for a single stage, SEER 16, HSPF 9.5, 3-ton single-speed air source heat pump with 15 kW of backup auxiliary heating tested in both cooling and heating mode, and a two stage, SEER 21, 2-ton central air conditioner tested in cooling mode for a set of outdoor temperatures and indoor setpoint temperatures. In addition to these tests, experimental tests focused on the operation of auxiliary heating for the heat pump for winter condition were also conducted. The laboratory experiments for transient testing of the heat pump and air conditioner were conducted using the two HIL systems in the Systems Performance Laboratory (SPL) at NREL’s Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF). Further information on laboratory design and capabilities of the SPL along with the architecture of HVAC HIL system can be found in: Sparn, B. F. 2018. Laboratory Resources and Techniques to Evaluate Smart Home Technology (No. NREL/CP-5500-71696). National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States). https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy18osti/71696.pdf and the experimental setup and validation of HVAC HIL platform can be found in: Ramaraj, S. and Sparn, B. 2022. Validation of HVAC Hardware-In-the-Loop Simulation for Advanced Control Strategies in Smart Homes (No. NREL/CP-5500-82562). National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL), Golden, CO (United States). https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/82562.pdf. These experimental results can be used to validate how we currently model the cycling behavior of heat pumps and air conditioners. Additionally, many demand response programs implement heat pump and air conditioner control by changing the thermostat set point – these data may also be used to verify our models for heat pump and air conditioner demand response control are implemented correctly. The Test_Matrix file describes all the indoor and outdoor test conditions for heat pump and air conditioner and the file names of data sets include information about the test conditions. A wide range of outdoor air temperatures were chosen to accommodate summer and winter conditions. In addition to operating the HVAC equipment with different outdoor temperatures, we also operate the system with different indoor temperature set points to represent different grid signals or different operating conditions. For cooling conditions, the baseline set point is 72°F. To represent Load Up signals, the setpoint is changed to 68°F. The Load Shed set point is 76°F. For heating conditions, the baseline set point was assumed to be 68°F. The Load add set point is 72°F and the Load shed set point is 64°F. The starting indoor temperature for cooling conditions was set ~2°F above the indoor setpoint temperature so that the equipment turned on quickly. Similarly, the initial indoor temperature was set ~2°F lower than setpoint for heating mode tests to ensure that heating began quickly. The return air temperature was assumed to be equal to the indoor setpoint temperature in all cases. The experimental data are sampled at 1-second intervals. The data from ecobee thermostat at 5-minute interval are resampled and added to the corresponding file. The content of each data set is as follows: • T_Return (C): Measured return air temperature [C] • T_Return_SP (C): Return air temperature setpoint from E+ model, sent to HIL [C] • T_Supply (C): Measured supply air temperature at evaporator outlet [C] • T_Outdoor (C): Measured outdoor air temperature [C] • T_Outdoor_SP (C): Outdoor air temperature setpoint from weather file, sent to HIL [C] • T_Indoor (C): Measured indoor air temperature [C] • T_Indoor_SP (C): Indoor air temperature setpoint from E+ model, sent to HIL [C] • Outdoor Unit Power (W): Measured power of the outdoor unit [W] • Indoor Unit Power (W): Measured power of the indoor unit [W] • Evaporator Airflow Rate (CFM): Measured evaporator or indoor unit airflow rate sent to E+ model [CFM] • Cooling/Heating Capacity (kW): Calculated cooling/heating capacity sent to E+ model [kW] • T_SP_Thermostat (C): Thermostat cooling/heating setpoint temperature [C] • T_Indoor_Thermostat (C): Thermostat indoor air temperature [C]

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Abstract Marked uncertainty in California (CA) precipitation projections challenges their use in adaptation planning in the region already experiencing severe water stress. Under global warming, a westerly jet extension in the North Pacific analogous to the El Niño-like teleconnection has been suggested as a key mechanism for CA winter precipitation changes. However, this teleconnection has not been reconciled with the well-known El Niño-like warming response or the controversial role of internal variability in the precipitation uncertainty. Here we find that internal variability contributes > 70% and > 50% of uncertainty in the CA precipitation changes and the El Niño-like warming, respectively, based on analysis of 318 climate simulations from several multi-model and large ensembles. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation plays a key role in each contribution and in connecting the two via the westerly jet extension. This unifying understanding of the role of internal variability in CA precipitation provides critical guidance for reducing and communicating uncertainty to inform adaptation planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comparing Retrofit Wall Performance Predicted from Hygrothermal Simulations to Measurements

Over the past few years ORNL has been showing that WUFI® can be used to predict the moisture performance of walls when exposed to diffusion of water vapor, convection of moist air through the wall, and solar driven moisture. This is accomplished by comparing the hygrothermal simulation results to carefully instruments walls exposed to these phenomena in a climate chamber. In FY 2018, three stick-built walls were succumbed to typical Chicago, Illinois weather conditions in Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Heat, Air and Moisture chamber. The measured temperature, relative humidity, and moisture content within these walls were compared with WUFI hygrothermal simulation results. In FY 2019, similar experiments and comparisons with WUFI results were completed with two walls, a structural insulated panel-based wall and a concrete masonry unit-based wall. In FY 2020, experiments were completed for a probable exterior retrofit of a wall which included adding cavity and continuous insulation. Two pairs of walls were tested by exposing them to Chicago winter weather with a positive pressure pushing outside air into the wall. The results from the FY 2020 experiments are reported here.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Consistent Timing of Arctic Permafrost Loss Across the CESM1 Large Ensemble

Abstract The Arctic is especially vulnerable to climate change and is warming faster than the global average. Changes in this region pose a heightened threat due to the immense amount of carbon frozen as organic material in the soil. When permafrost thaws, organic material decays and releases as greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, contributing to further warming. A better understanding of the processes that influence permafrost degradation is needed to inform climate adaptation and mitigation planning. This study assesses changes to Arctic permafrost across 35 ensemble member simulations from the Community Earth System Model 1 Large Ensemble Project, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 21st century scenario. Most Arctic near‐surface permafrost is lost by 2100, but timing varies across regions and with soil depth. Internal climate variability, represented by differences between ensemble members, has a constrained influence on degradation timing due to relative consistency of summer temperature increases and insulation by winter snow cover.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

High Values of the Arctic Amplification in the Early Decades of the 21st Century: Causes of Discrepancy by CMIP6 Models Between Observation and Simulation

Arctic Amplification (AA) in the first decade of the 21st century has reached values between 4 and 5, with a subsequent decrease to current values of about 3.6, while the value was from 2 to 3 during the twentieth century. The ensemble mean of the CMIP6 models has difficulty in reproducing the recently observed high values of the AA. In this report, we identify the main reason for this difficulty to be the CMIP6 models overestimate of the mean global temperature trend since about 1990. The largest values of the AA are observed in winter and spring. A sharp AA peak in 1987 spring was caused by a peak in the Arctic temperature trend occurring at the same time as a dip in the trend of mean global temperature. The winter AA has increased almost monotonically since 1990. Dividing the AA between the Arctic land and ocean areas shows that the ocean area makes a larger contribution to the AA. Our future projection of the AA suggests an increasing AA for about the next decade, followed by a slow decrease to about 3.5 in the 2050s.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

High Values of the Arctic Amplification in Early Decades of the 21st Century: Causes of Discrepancy by CMIP6 Models Between Observation and Simulation

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Volcanic Imprints in Last-Millennium Land Summer Temperatures in the Circum-North Atlantic Area

Summer cooling is one of the most direct consequences of explosive volcanic eruptions that can affect ecosystems and human societies. Recent studies revealed a multiyear cooling impact on hemispheric and global summer temperatures after tropical eruptions, yet the volcanic responses appear to vary on regional scales. Here, in this work, we revisit volcano-induced summer cooling in eastern Canada and northern and central Europe by applying superposed epoch analysis on CMIP6-PMIP4 simulations and millennial temperature reconstructions based on tree-ring density. We then examine potential causes modulating region-specific volcanic impact. While confirming that, on average, tropical eruptions over the last millennium have induced a longer cooling (>4 yr) than eruptions from extratropical Northern Hemisphere in all three North Atlantic regions, we show that the peak magnitude of cooling is stronger in eastern Canada. We also find that the detected volcanic temperature anomalies can be strongly affected by the selection and number of volcanic events and nonvolcanic signals embedded in the climate time series. This study highlights the risks of using highly noisy proxy records to investigate volcanic impacts, especially in regions with strong unforced climate variability. The CMIP6-PMIP4 simulations generally agree with the three reconstructions on the average response to tropical eruptions, but their performance is poorer regarding the production of significant cooling after extratropical eruptions. Our results further suggest that the particular sensitivity to tropical eruptions in eastern Canada is likely related to increased sea ice surrounding Quebec–Labrador associated with the positive Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation formed during the first posteruption winter.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Residential Natural Gas Demand Response Potential during Extreme Cold Events in Electricity-Gas Coupled Energy Systems

In regions where natural gas is used for both power generation and heating buildings, extreme cold weather events can place the electrical system under enormous stress and challenge the ability to meet residential heating and electric demands. Residential demand response has long been used in the power sector to curtail summer electric load, but these types of programs in general have not seen adoption in the natural gas sector during winter months. Natural gas demand response (NG-DR) has garnered interest given recent extreme cold weather events in the United States; however, the magnitude of savings and potential impacts—to occupants and energy markets—are not well understood. We present a case-study analysis of the technical potential for residential natural gas demand response in the northeast United States that utilizes diverse whole-building energy simulations and high-performance computing. Our results show that NG-DR applied to residential heating systems during extreme cold-weather conditions could reduce natural gas demand by 1–29% based on conservative and aggressive strategies, respectively. This indicates a potential to improve the resilience of gas and electric systems during stressful events, which we examine by estimating the impact on energy costs and electricity generation from natural gas. We also explore relationships between hourly indoor temperatures, demand response, and building envelope efficiency.

03 NATURAL GAS↗