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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Does Regional Hydroclimate Change Scale Linearly With Global Warming?

Many aspects of climate change scale linearly with global warming. However, nonlinear changes are possible, especially in the context of hydroclimate, and under emissions scenarios with stabilized global temperature, as aspired to by current climate targets. In CMIP5 and 6, a progressively larger land area shows nonlinear changes as a function of global warming when considering precipitation, evaporation, and soil moisture, with the latter showing nonlinearity over ~50% of global land. Here, using ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model 1, in which individual forcing factors are held constant, we illustrate how nonadditive responses to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and industrial and fire-related aerosols can yield complex soil moisture changes in certain regions. This complexity contributes to uncertainty in regional soil moisture projections and suggests that the timing of, as well as model response uncertainty to, future aerosol reductions will have significant impacts on regional hydroclimate change as global temperatures stabilize.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dataset about Warming Effects on Carbon Cycling and Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in Permafrost Ecosystems

Field observations provide direct evidence of how does carbon cycling in permafrost ecosystems respond to climate change. This study provides a comprehensive dataset on the impact of warming on carbon cycling and greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes in permafrost ecosystems. The dataset is extracted and integrated from 132 peer-reviewed studies with 1430 paired observations across eight major permafrost ecosystems, including Arctic and subarctic tundra and wetland, and alpine meadow, steppe, tundra and wetland. This dataset includes 17 variables from experiments conducted during the growing season, covering the plant and soil carbon pools, soil nitrogen pool, and GHG (i.e., CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O) fluxes, among others. Background information on site climate conditions, vegetation and soil characteristics, and details of the warming experiments, including timing, methods, and warming magnitude, are also contained in the dataset. This dataset facilitates a comprehensive understanding of the impact of warming on carbon cycling and GHG fluxes in permafrost ecosystems, and provides supports for meta-analyses and literature reviews, remote sensing data validation, and land model development and parameterization.

Bao, Tao [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beiji↗
DOE OSTI2025

Key Environmental and Ecological Variables of Wetland CH 4 and CO 2 Fluxes Change With Warming

Wetlands are important ecosystems for the global carbon cycle, impacting regional and global methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) budgets. This study examines how environmental and ecological variables impact wetland CH 4 flux and net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (NEE) across 17 sites globally. We also quantified the importance of variables for each wetland type and site at monthly scale under normal and warm temperatures using dominance analysis. We identified soil and air temperature (TS, TA, respectively) as key variables influencing wetland CH4, and latent heat (LE) and shortwave radiation (SW) for NEE under normal and warm conditions. However, the importance of some variables shifted with warming. For predicting the variability of wetland CH4 flux under warming, gross primary productivity (GPP) and LE, replacing wind direction (WD), were dominant variables for tropical swamps, while NEE was important for high-latitude fens and bogs under warm temperatures. For wetland NEE, the role of TA and TS decreased across all wetland types with warming, while vapor pressure deficit (VPD) became more important for mid and high-latitude wetlands. Our results reveal the complex responses of wetland carbon flux to environmental and ecological variables with warming and provide new insights into improving wetland models by incorporating additional variables and accounting for the changing roles of variables in carbon flux under warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-Lin Lindcove Orange Orchard

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Lin Lindcove Orange Orchard. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Lin Lindcove Orange Orchard produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The experimental site was a citrus orchard about three km west of the UC Lindcove Research and Experiment Station. The site is characterized by a Mediterranean climate typical of Central California, with warm dry summers and cool wet winters. The soil texture for the upper horizon (0-33 cm) was loam with a particle size distribution of 42% sand, 38% silt, and 20% clay (Kearney Ag Center). Soil pH was 7.4 (Valley Tech Soil Agricultural Laboratory Services). The orchard was drip-irrigated with water applied twice per week in the warm season to ensure water avail- ability close to field capacity. The site was kept clean from understory vegetation and mechanical pruning operations took place twice a year to limit the size ofthe orange trees for harvesting and site maintenance. The block of trees in which the tower and instruments were located was ‘Valencia’ orange on trifoliate rootstock, with a planting date in the 1960’s. The square 4 ha block had dimensions of 200 m NeS and EeW. At the end of the study, we harvested a ‘Valencia’ citrus tree from within the study block to measure citrus leaf area index (LAI) and biomass density. The tree height was 3.7 m as measured with a telescoping pole. We measured canopy radii in the four cardinal directions to calculate a planar area (as seen from above) of 12.2 m2. The mean specific leaf area (SLA) of citrus leaves was 85.4 cm2 g-1 obtained by measuring leaf area of five groups of leaf samples with a LiCor Leaf area meter (mod. LI-3100C) followed by drying and weighing. LAI for the orchard was 3.00, derived using the SLA value and the total dry mass of leaves from the harvested tree, multiplied by the plant population of 237 plants per ha as obtained from spacing measurements and Google Maps imagery.

Fares, Silvano↗
DOE OSTI2024

Future increase in compound soil drought-heat extremes exacerbated by vegetation greening

Compound soil drought and heat extremes are expected to occur more frequently with global warming, causing wide-ranging socio-ecological repercussions. Vegetation modulates air temperature and soil moisture through biophysical processes, thereby influencing the occurrence of such extremes. Global vegetation cover is broadly expected to increase under climate change, but it remains unclear whether vegetation greening will alleviate or aggravate future increases in compound soil drought-heat events. Here, using a suite of state-of-the-art model simulations, we show that the projected vegetation greening will increase the frequency of global compound soil drought-heat events, equivalent to 12-21% of the total increment at the end of 21st century. This increase is predominantly driven by reduced albedo and enhanced transpiration associated with increased leaf area. Although greening-induced transpiration enhancement has counteracting cooling and drying effects, the excessive water loss in the early growing season can lead to later soil moisture deficits, amplifying compound soil drought-heat extremes during the subsequent warm season. These changes are most pronounced in northern high latitudes and are dominated by the warming effect of CO 2 . Our study highlights the necessity of integrating vegetation biophysical effects into mitigation and adaptation strategies for addressing compound climate risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data from: Lowland Tropical Forests Remain a Methane Sink Under Warming and Long-Term Hurricane Disturbance Recovery

The repository folder contains spreadsheets and script for soil greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes, soil moisture, soil temperature, air temperature, and precipitation measurements collected from the Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) at the Sabana Research Field Station, El Yunque National Forest (USDA Forest Service; 18°19′28.74″ N, 65°43′50.09″ W) — an open-air field warming experiment located in a lowland tropical forest in Puerto Rico within the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF) — six to seven years after Hurricanes Irma and Maria (2017). All spreadsheets for soil and air microclimate data, as well as soil greenhouse gas data, are included as csv files. Air temperature data are also included as Excel spreadsheets (.xlsx). The script is built in R Studio, which is the only software required to run data analysis. This dataset is associated with the manuscript “Larocca Conte G ; Zuvela L ; Cruz-Pérez R ; Barreto-Vélez T ; Becerra-Santillan N ; Campbell S ; Chu H ; Dam T ; Grullón-Penkova I ; Kleit M ; Ortiz-Iglesias D ; Rubio-Lebrón L ; Cavaleri M ; Reed S ; Sihi D ; Wood T ; O'Connell C., 2026. Lowland Tropical Forests Remain a Methane Sink Under Warming and Long-Term Hurricane Disturbance Recovery. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. In review". The dataset was used to test the effect of warming on soil CH4 dynamics following long-term legacy effects of hurricane disturbance. The dataset includes: - An overall README file in word and pdf format describing methodology and spreadsheets’ structure. - Continuous measurements of soil temperature and moisture from January 2023 to July 2024 measured with Campbell CS655 probes (“TRACE_soil_temperature_and_moisture_2023_cleaned(in).csv” and “TRACE_soil_temperature_and_moisture_2024_cleaned. csv”). - Air temperature data measured with a HOBO MX23O1A data logger (“Hobo air temperature 2023 Sep 2024” and “Hobo air temperature 2023 Sep 2024” – “CSV FILES folders”). - Precipitation data from a nearby weather tower downloaded from González et al. (2025; “sabana_2020-2025.csv”). - Soil CH4 and CO2 effluxes measured intermittently in two summer campaigns (June – August 2023 and June – July 2024) with a LI-COR 8200-01S Portable Smart Chamber coupled with a LI-COR LI-7810 CH4/ CO2/H2O Trace Gas Analyzer (“23_24COMBO2.0.csv”). - R markdown script for data analysis (“Trace new_PLOTS.Rmd”).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Environmental harshness mediates the relationship between aboveground and belowground communities in Antarctica

Linkages between aboveground and belowground communities are a key but globally under-researched component of responses to environmental change. Given the logistical complications to studying these relationships, much of our knowledge derives from laboratory experiments and localized field studies which have so far yielded inconsistent results. Because environmental factors may alter relationships between above- and belowground communities, there is a need for broad-scale field studies testing these interactions. The Antarctic Peninsula provides an ideal test setting, given the relatively simple communities both above- and belowground. The Peninsula is also experiencing rapid environmental changes, including alterations in species diversity and distribution both above- and belowground. Thus, an improved understanding of the broad-scale consequences of altered environments and vegetation communities for the soil microbiome is of high priority. To determine the nature and strength of the relationship between in situ plant and soil communities across a broad spatial scale and range of environmental conditions, we sampled soil communities at 9 locations (spanning 60–72°S along the Scotia Arc and Antarctic Peninsula) beneath the major aboveground habitats (moss, grass, lichen, algae and bare soil). We measured a comprehensive suite of soil physicochemical properties, microbial (bacterial and fungal) diversity and composition, and invertebrate abundance and community composition to determine the relationships between plant and soil communities. Furthermore, our results suggest that, with increased environmental severity, plant cover types become more important for influencing the physicochemical soil environment, and therefore the soil microbial communities. Although we found site-specific relationships, broad-scale patterns reveal significant differences among bare soils and vegetated soils, particularly soils beneath grass and moss. This suggests that expansion of vegetation communities under current climate warming projections will be accompanied by shifts in the soil microbiome, with important implications for the ecosystem functioning with which they are associated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interannual precipitation controls on soil CO 2 fluxes in high elevation conifer and aspen forests

Abstract Long-term soil CO 2 emission measurements are necessary for detecting trends and interannual variability in the terrestrial carbon cycle. Such records are becoming increasingly valuable as ecosystems experience altered environmental conditions associated with climate change. From 2013 to 2021, we continuously measured soil CO 2 concentrations in the two dominant high elevation forest types, mixed conifer and aspen, in the upper Colorado River basin. We quantified the soil CO 2 flux during the summer months, and found that the mean and total CO 2 flux in both forests was related to the prior winter’s snowfall and current summer’s rainfall, with greater sensitivity to rainfall. We observed a decline in surface soil CO 2 production, which we attributed to warming and a decrease in amount and frequency of summer rains. Our results demonstrate strong precipitation control on the soil CO 2 flux in mountainous regions, a finding which has important implications for carbon cycling under future environmental change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Controls on Soil Organic Matter Degradation and Subsequent Greenhouse Gas Emissions Across a Permafrost Thaw Gradient in Northern Sweden

Warming-induced permafrost thaw could enhance microbial decomposition of previously stored soil organic matter (SOM) to carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ), one of the most significant potential feedbacks from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere in a changing climate. The environmental parameters regulating microbe-organic matter interactions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in northern permafrost peatlands are however still largely unknown. The objective of this work is to understand controls on SOM degradation and its impact on porewater GHG concentrations across the Stordalen Mire, a thawing peat plateau in Northern Sweden. Here, we applied high-resolution mass spectrometry to characterize SOM molecular composition in peat soil samples from the active layers of a Sphagnum-dominated bog and rich fen sites in the Mire. Microbe-organic matter interactions and porewater GHG concentrations across the thaw gradient were controlled by aboveground vegetation and soil pH. An increasingly high abundance of reduced organic compounds experiencing greater humification rates due to enhanced microbial activity were observed with increasing thaw, in parallel with higher CH 4 and CO 2 porewater concentrations. Bog SOM however contained more Sphagnum-derived phenolics, simple carbohydrates, and organic- acids. The low degradation of bog SOM by microbial communities, the enhanced SOM transformation by potentially abiotic mechanisms, and the accumulation of simple carbohydrates in the bog sites could be attributed in part to the low pH conditions of the system associated with Sphagnum mosses. We show that Gibbs free energy of C half reactions based on C oxidation state for OM can be used as a quantifiable measure for OM decomposability and quality to enhance current biogeochemical models to predict C decomposition rates. We found a direct association between OM chemical diversity and δ 13 C-CH 4 in peat porewater; where higher substrate diversity was positively correlated with enriched δ 13 C-CH 4 in fen sites. Oxidized sulfur-containing compounds, produced by Sphagnum, were further hypothesized to control GHG emissions by acting as electron acceptors for a sulfate-reducing electron transport chain, inhibiting methanogenesis in peat bogs. These results suggest that warming-induced permafrost thaw might increase organic matter lability, in subset of sites that become wetlands, and shift biogeochemical processes toward faster decomposition with an increasing proportion of carbon released as CH 4 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Snowmelt Periods as Hot Moments for Soil N Dynamics: a Case Study in Maine, USA

We examined patterns of soil N availability during the vernal transition and how warming winter and ecosystem N status (N-enriched vs. N-limited) altered these patterns. Soils were sampled at the Bear Brook Watershed in Maine during 2015 and 2016. 2016 was a warmer winter with less snowfall than 2015, and therefore had earlier snowmelt and a longer vernal transition. Across both years, thaw periods consistently showed signs of being transition periods, especially evident in the N-enriched watershed — ammonium concentrations were highest during this period due to microbial community turnover and cell lysis, whereas nitrate concentrations were lowest due to flushing by meltwater. The N-enriched soils had 4–5-times more ammonium than the N-limited soils overall, although this difference was magnified during melt periods (10–14-fold). This indicates that the altered microbial community in the chronically N-manipulated soils might be more susceptible to community turnover and lysis during snowmelt. Our results indicate that ecosystem N status influences the response of forest soil N dynamics to a changing vernal transition in a time of accelerating climate change.

vernal transition, forest soils, nitrogen, N-enric↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sensitive Response of Atmospheric Oxidative Capacity to the Uncertainty in the Emissions of Nitric Oxide (NO) From Soils in Amazonia

Abstract Soils are a major source of nitrogen oxides, which in the atmosphere help govern its oxidative capacity. Thus the response of soil nitric oxide (NO) emissions to forcings such as warming or forest loss has a meaningful impact on global atmospheric chemistry. We find that the soil emission rate of NO in Amazonia from a common inventory is biased low by at least an order of magnitude in comparison to tower‐based observations. Accounting for this regional bias decreases the modeled global methane lifetime by 1.4%–2.6%. In comparison, a fully deforested Amazonia, representing a 37% decrease in global emissions of isoprene, decreases methane lifetime by at most 4.6%, highlighting the sensitive response of oxidation rates to changes in emissions of NO compared to those of terpenes. Our results demonstrate that improving our understanding of soil NO emissions will yield a more accurate representation of atmospheric oxidative capacity.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Agile Allocation in the Tundra: A Single Growing Season of Warming Increases Nutrient Availability While Decreasing Fine-Root Length

The majority of plant biomass is located belowground in Arctic ecosystems and plant roots are responsible for the uptake of the nutrients that constrain plant growth in these infertile ecosystems. Despite performing a crucial role connecting primary producers to the soil, roots are relatively understudied in the Arctic and their functional response to a rapidly warming and increasingly variable climate is unknown. Here, we assessed whether one growing season with elevated temperatures would have an impact on nutrient uptake and allocation by applying a warming technique that increased daily air temperatures by 3.2 °C. Destructive sampling was performed at the peak of the growing season to quantify biomass pools of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), root traits, and uptake of a 15 N tracer ( 15 NH 4 + ) for the dominant plant species, Arctagrostis latifolia. We found that soil nutrient availability increased with short-term warming, but A. latifolia NH 4 + uptake remained unchanged. Fine-root length density and root biomass within the soil profile, however, were both reduced by warming. N allocation patterns across plant tissues were also altered by warming. NH 4 + uptake was best fit with a logistic model that captured the spatial relationship between roots and soil (NH 4 + uptake expressed per length fine root and NH 4 + availability expressed per unit soil volume) rather than a traditional Michaelis–Menten model. Our results indicate that short-term experimental warming can shift plant–soil interactions, suggesting that the tundra’s belowground response to elevated temperatures may be more dynamic than previously recognized.

15N tracer↗
DOE OSTI2020

Microbial diversity drives carbon use efficiency in a model soil

Abstract Empirical evidence for the response of soil carbon cycling to the combined effects of warming, drought and diversity loss is scarce. Microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) plays a central role in regulating the flow of carbon through soil, yet how biotic and abiotic factors interact to drive it remains unclear. Here, we combine distinct community inocula (a biotic factor) with different temperature and moisture conditions (abiotic factors) to manipulate microbial diversity and community structure within a model soil. While community composition and diversity are the strongest predictors of CUE, abiotic factors modulated the relationship between diversity and CUE, with CUE being positively correlated with bacterial diversity only under high moisture. Altogether these results indicate that the diversity × ecosystem-function relationship can be impaired under non-favorable conditions in soils, and that to understand changes in soil C cycling we need to account for the multiple facets of global changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impacts of climate and disturbance on nutrient fluxes and stoichiometry in mixed-conifer forests

Elucidating climatic impacts on stream nutrient export and stoichiometry will improve the understanding of forest carbon (C) storage in a warmer world. We constructed C, nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) budgets in four watersheds within a rain-snow transition site and another four within a higher-elevation, snow-dominated site, in California’s mixed-conifer zone. We used these two sites in a space-for-time substitution to assess the potential effects of warming on nutrient cycles in currently snow-dominated areas that will become more rain-dominated. During a non-drought period (water year (WY) 2004 – 2011), mean annual stream exports of C and N in particulate forms at the transition site were double that at the snow-dominated site, suggesting that sediment-associated nutrient losses may increase with warming. The transition site had 12% lower N but double the P content in mineral horizons, lower N:P mass ratios in organic horizons, and lower stream export of dissolved inorganic N than the snow-dominated site. Furthermore, these differences suggest that montane forests may receive lower supply of N relative to P with warming. In addition, given strong interests in forest thinning to increase drought resiliency, we examined changes in stream nutrient export after thinning and during a major drought period (WY 2013 – 2015). Stream exports of C, N, and P were similar between unthinned and thinned watersheds during drought, suggesting negligible thinning impacts on stream nutrient export during excessively dry periods. Taken together, our results suggest that as the climate warms, California’s montane forests may lose more nutrients through erosion and receive less N input than P.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Tower-Based Remote Sensing Reveals Mechanisms Behind a Two-phased Spring Transition in a Mixed-Species Boreal Forest

The boreal forest is a major contributor to the global climate system, therefore, reducing uncertainties in how the forest will respond to a changing climate is critical. One source of uncertainty is the timing and drivers of the spring transition. Remote sensing can provide important information on this transition, but persistent foliage greenness, seasonal snow cover, and a high prevalence of mixed forest stands (both deciduous and evergreen species) complicate interpretation of these signals. We collected tower-based remotely sensed data (reflectance-based vegetation indices and Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence [SIF]), stem radius measurements, gross primary productivity, and environmental conditions in a boreal mixed forest stand. Evaluation of this data set shows a two-phased spring transition. The first phase is the reactivation of photosynthesis and transpiration in evergreens, marked by an increase in relative SIF, and is triggered by thawed stems, warm air temperatures, and increased available soil moisture. The second phase is a reduction in bulk photoprotective pigments in evergreens, marked by an increase in the Chlorophyll-Carotenoid Index. Deciduous leaf-out occurs during this phase, marked by an increase in all remotely sensed metrics. The second phase is controlled by soil thaw. Our results demonstrate that remote sensing metrics can be used to detect specific physiological changes in boreal tree species during the spring transition. The two-phased transition explains inconsistencies in remote sensing estimates of the timing and drivers of spring recovery. Our results imply that satellite-based observations will improve by using a combination of vegetation indices and SIF, along with species distribution information.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exacerbated drought impacts on global ecosystems due to structural overshoot

Vegetation dynamics are affected not only by the concurrent climate but also by memory-induced lagged responses. For example, favourable climate in the past could stimulate vegetation growth to surpass the ecosystem carrying capacity, leaving an ecosystem vulnerable to climate stresses. This phenomenon, known as structural overshoot, could potentially contribute to worldwide drought stress and forest mortality but the magnitude of the impact is poorly known due to the dynamic nature of overshoot and complex influencing timescales. Here, we use a dynamic statistical learning approach to identify and characterize ecosystem structural overshoot globally and quantify the associated drought impacts. We find that structural overshoot contributed to around 11% of drought events during 1981-2015 and is often associated with compound extreme drought and heat, causing faster vegetation declines and greater drought impacts compared to non-overshoot related droughts. The fraction of droughts related to overshoot is strongly related to mean annual temperature, with biodiversity, aridity and land cover as secondary factors. These results highlight the large role vegetation dynamics play in drought development and suggest that soil water depletion due to warming-induced future increases in vegetation could cause more frequent and stronger overshoot droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A substantial role of soil erosion in the land carbon sink and its future changes

Realistic representation of land carbon sink in climate models is vital for predicting carbon climate feedbacks in a changing world. Although soil erosion that removes land organic carbon has increased substantially since the onset of agriculture, it is rarely included in the current generation of climate models. Using an Earth system model with soil erosion represented, we estimated that on average soil erosion displaces 5% of newly fixed land organic carbon downslope annually in the continental US. In the lower Mississippi river basin and the Cascades, the fraction can be as large as 40%. About 12% of the eroded organic carbon is eventually exported to inland waters, which is equal to 14% of the simulated net carbon gain by terrestrial ecosystems. By comparing the eroded organic carbon export to rivers with the particulate organic carbon export to oceans, we demonstrated that a large fraction of the carbon export to rivers could have been mineralized in inland waters. Importantly, with a direct comparison of eroded and exported soil organic carbon and land net carbon uptake, we found that Earth system models that ignore soil erosion likely offset the erosional carbon loss by increasing heterotrophic respiration implicitly. But as soil erosion and heterotrophic respiration respond differently to a warming climate, this unrealistic compensation would lead to biased predictions of future land carbon sink.

Tan, Zeli↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-Resolution ESM Projections for Energy Applications Over the CONUS

Assessing energy resources under future scenarios requires high-resolution meteorological information that is physically consistent and suitable for regional-scale analysis. While Earth system model (ESM) projections provide valuable large-scale information, their coarse resolution and systematic biases limit direct applicability for energy system modeling and planning. In this study, we develop a high-resolution dynamical downscaling framework based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to translate global-scale ESM data into energy-relevant regional projections over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The framework identifies an optimized WRF configuration through numerical experiments and evaluates raw and bias-corrected ESM initial and boundary conditions, with soil moisture (SM) and soil temperature (ST) bias correction implemented as an integral part of the bias-corrected ESM forcing to improve land-atmosphere coupling prior to WRF dynamical downscaling. Using an optimized WRF configuration at 4-km resolution, we show that raw ESM forcing introduces systematic dry and cold soil biases that propagate into pronounced warm biases in near-surface air temperature and positive biases in solar irradiance, particularly during summer. Applying bias-corrected atmospheric forcing together with bias-corrected SM and ST substantially reduces these downstream biases and improves the surface energy balance and near-surface atmospheric fields. These results demonstrate that bias-aware treatment of initial conditions is critical for producing high-resolution downscaled projections suitable for energy system modeling and planning applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗