Machine Learning Tools for Predicting Solar Energetic Particle Hazards: Progress and Plans
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The Problem: The use of conventional neural networks (CoNNs) to predict SEPs has become popular, but neural network models do not follow one-size-fits-all approaches and their chaotic natures can yield completely different results on identical data sets. Committees of neural networks identical in input features have been used to solve this problem by (Aminalragia et al., 2021), but they have the possibility of all agreeing together in lockstep and missing crucial information. The Solution: (O’Keefe et al., 2023) propose a solution consisting of neural network estimators in an ensemble, but with features randomly removed from them in a layout known as a random hivemind (RH). The decision weight, learning rate, and epoch count of each member in this ensemble are boosted in relation to how well its individual features perform in a chi-square test.
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We present a model for composition of heavy ions in the Solar Energetic Particles (SEP). The SEP composition in a typical large solar particle event reflects the composition of the Sun, with adjustments due to fractionation effects which depend on the First Ionization Potential (FIP) of the ion and on the ratio of ionic charge to mass (Q/M). Flare-to flare variations in composition are represented by parameters describing these fractionation effects and the distributions of these parameters are presented.
The various manifestations of energetic particles in solar flares are examined, and possible mechanisms for the acceleration of these particles are considered. Hard X-ray observations and possible mechanisms for the production of the dominant form of solar energetic particles, electrons with energies between 10 and 100 keV, are discussed, with consideration of thin-target models, thick-target models and thick-target models with reverse currents, and first-phase acceleration mechanisms for energetic electrons emitting impulsive microwave and fast-drift Type III radio bursts as well as impulsive hard X rays, which are detected themselves 20 min after the flare at 1 AU are considered. Radio evidence on the number, energy and pitch-angle distributions of energetic particles produced during solar flares is summarized, and observations at 1 AU of proton and electron energy spectra, the proton/electron ratio and energetic particle events rich in He-3 from solar flares are discussed. Finally, consideration is given to gamma-ray evidence of nuclear reactions in flares and white-light flares
This presentation explores the origins and dynamics of energetic particles—specifically solar energetic particles (SEPs) and galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) - within the heliosphere and Earth's magnetosphere. We will discuss the fundamental physical processes governing their transport and acceleration in the heliosphere, including interactions with the solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field. The penetration of these particles into Earth's magnetosphere is examined, emphasizing how the geomagnetic field influences their propagation across the magnetosphere. Key phenomena such as the temporal trapping of SEPs in geospace, reductions in rigidity cutoff during geomagnetic storms, and the enhancement of atmospheric NOx and HOx concentrations - which affect the ozone balance through catalytic reactions—are discussed. The presentation also outlines contemporary numerical modeling techniques used to simulate SEPs and GCRs, providing insights into their complex behaviors under varying geomagnetic conditions.