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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12

Systems Analysis of the Physiological and Molecular Mechanisms of Sorghum Nitrogen Use Efficiency, Water Use Efficiency and Interactions with the Soil Microbiome (Final Report for DE-SC0014395)

The specific project objectives were to: 1) Conduct deep census surveys of root microbiomes concurrent with phenotypic characterizations of a diverse panel of sorghum genotypes across multiple years to define the microbes associated with the most productive lines under drought and low nitrogen conditions. 2) Associate systems-level genotypic, microbial, and environmental factors with improved sorghum performance using robust statistical approaches. 3) Develop culture collections of sorghum root/leaf associated microbes that recapitulate root-enriched sequences defined in the census. 4) Perform controlled environment experiments for in-depth characterization and hypothesis testing of G sorghum x G microbe x E interactions . Validate physiological mechanisms, map genetic loci for stress tolerance, and determine the persistence of optimal microbial strains under greenhouse and field conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Linking big models to big data: efficient ecosystem model calibration through Bayesian model emulation

Data-model integration plays a critical role in assessing and improving our capacity to predict ecosystem dynamics. Similarly, the ability to attach quantitative statements of uncertainty around model forecasts is crucial for model assessment and interpretation and for setting field research priorities. Bayesian methods provide a rigorous data assimilation framework for these applications, especially for problems with multiple data constraints. However, the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques underlying most Bayesian calibration can be prohibitive for computationally demanding models and large datasets. We employ an alternative method, Bayesian model emulation of sufficient statistics, that can approximate the full joint posterior density, is more amenable to parallelization, and provides an estimate of parameter sensitivity. Analysis involved informative priors constructed from a meta-analysis of the primary literature and specification of both model and data uncertainties, and it introduced novel approaches to autocorrelation corrections on multiple data streams and emulating the sufficient statistics surface. We report the integration of this method within an ecological workflow management software, Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn), and its application and validation with two process-based terrestrial ecosystem models: SIPNET and ED2. In a test against a synthetic dataset, the emulator was able to retrieve the true parameter values. A comparison of the emulator approach to standard brute-force MCMC involving multiple data constraints showed that the emulator method was able to constrain the faster and simpler SIPNET model's parameters with comparable performance to the brute-force approach but reduced computation time by more than 2 orders of magnitude. The emulator was then applied to calibration of the ED2 model, whose complexity precludes standard (brute-force) Bayesian data assimilation techniques. Both models are constrained after assimilation of the observational data with the emulator method, reducing the uncertainty around their predictions. Performance metrics showed increased agreement between model predictions and data. Our study furthers efforts toward reducing model uncertainties, showing that the emulator method makes it possible to efficiently calibrate complex models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Geological mapping in northwestern Saudi Arabia using LANDSAT multispectral techniques

Various computer enhancement and data extraction systems using LANDSAT data were assessed and used to complement a continuing geologic mapping program. Interactive digital classification techniques using both the parallel-piped and maximum-likelihood statistical approaches achieve very limited success in areas of highly dissected terrain. Computer enhanced imagery developed by color compositing stretched MSS ratio data was constructed for a test site in northwestern Saudi Arabia. Initial results indicate that several igneous and sedimentary rock types can be discriminated.

Blodget, H. W.↗

Geological mapping in northwestern Saudi Arabia using LANDSAT multispectral techniques

Various computer enhancement and data extraction systems using LANDSAT data were assessed and used to complement a continuing geologic mapping program. Interactive digital classification techniques using both the maximum-likelihood and thresholding statistical approaches achieve very limited success in areas of highly dissected terrain. Computer enhanced imagery developed by color compositing stretched MSS ratio data was constructed for a test site in northwestern Saudi Arabia. Initial results indicate that several igneous and sedimentary rock-types can be discriminated.

Blodget, H. W.↗

Pivotal-Function Assessment Of Reliability Of Software

Approach developed to establish utility of pivotal functions for estimation and prediction of reliability of software. Improved estimates of reliability with statistical confidence obtained when relatively few testing data available. Pivotal functions effective tools for determination of confidence limits for reliability of software and prediction limits for time to next failure. Provides exact confidence and prediction limits regardless of how many bugs found in software.

Hayhurst, Kelly J.↗

Radio properties of optically selected quasars

Approximately one-quarter (256 objects) of the Large Bright Quasar Survey (LBQS) has been observed with the VLA at 8.4 GHz, resulting in 44 detections (17%) with a median 3 sigma noise limit of 0.29 mJy. Quasars with radio luminosity detectable at this limit are underrepresented at faint absolute blue magnitudes (M(sub B) greater than or equal to -24), an effect which cannot be explained by a potential LBQS selection bias against quasars which have large radio luminosities and small optical luminosities. The radio-loud (8 GHz luminosity greater than 10(exp 25) W/Hz) fraction is observed to change as a function of redshift and M(sub B), for M(sub B) less than -24, although the causal variable is ambiguous. The description most consistent with the available data is that radio-loud fraction is approximately constant over the range -27.5 less than or equal to M(sub B) less than or equal to -24 and increases at brighter absolute magnitudes. The radio-loud fraction as a function of redshift reaches a local maximum at z approximately equal to 1, and, aside from the effects of icreased radio-loud fraction at bright M(sub B), remains roughly constant to redshifts approaching 5. The log R(sub 8.4) distribution (radio-to-optical luminosity ratio) of the current LBQS sample may be bimodal, but the results of statistical tests are ambiguous, requiring a larger sample size to become definite.

Hooper, Eric J.↗

Integrated Testing Regimen: Assessment of Countermeasures for Long Duration Space Flight

Space flight has been shown to induce changes in the physiology of crewmembers which can adversely affect their performance. The objectives of Countermeasures Evaluation and Validation Project (CEVP) are to develop and validate potential countermeasures to the deleterious effects of space flight for operational implementation and use. In order to accomplish this objective, a group of standardized tests, the Integrated Testing Regimen or ITR, will be utilized for the evaluation of candidate countermeasures. Additionally, the ITR will illuminate intersystem effects of the potential countermeasures and provide normative values for the physiological responses. Due to the small number of crewmembers available as test subjects, statistically rigorous validation of countermeasures presents a challenging problem. Strategies for reliable evaluation of small N clinical studies will be utilized for these activities. These approaches will permit effective analysis of promising countermeasure to support human space flights of increasing duration.

Sams, Clarence F.↗

Probability Bounds Analysis Applied to Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle Nonlinearity

The Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Program Orion vehicle finite element model (FEM) was updated based on a modal test performed by Lockheed Martin. Due to nonlinearity observed in the test results, linear low force level (LL) and high force level (HL) FEMs were developed for use during various Space Launch System (SLS) flight regimes depending on expected forcing levels. Uncertainty models were derived for the combined MPCV and MPCV Stage Adaptor LL and HL Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) components based on the MPCV structural test article Configuration 4 modal test-analysis correlation results. Subsequently, system-level uncertainty quantification analyses were performed using both models for various SLS flight configurations to determine the impact of the nonlinearity on important system metrics. The system metrics included both transfer functions associated with attitude control and dynamic loads associated with aerodynamic buffeting during ascent. In each case, an independent Monte Carlo (MC) analysis was performed, and no attempt was made to combine the results. The Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) method was used to develop the LL and HL MPCV HCB uncertainty models. The HPV method provides both parametric and non-parametric components of uncertainty. The non-parametric uncertainty accounts for the difference in model-form between the linearized analytical model and the corresponding linearized component test results in the form of mode shapes and frequencies at that force level. This linear model-form uncertainty is implemented in the HPV method using random matrix theory. However, the HPV uncertainty models developed for the linear LL and HL MPCV components do not account for the nonlinearity in the MPCV. With respect to the linearized models, this nonlinearity is also an uncertainty in model form, but in this case, it must be treated independently as an epistemic uncertainty. It represents a lack of knowledge, in contrast to an aleatory uncertainty due to the randomness of a variable. In the case of an epistemic variable, the true value is unknown, only the interval within which it lies is known. Epistemic uncertainty can be reduced with increased knowledge, while in general, aleatory uncertainty cannot. This work combines the epistemic uncertainty due to the MPCV nonlinearity with the parametric and non-parametric uncertainty within the HPV method using a second order propagation approach. The LL and HL test data is augmented with surrogate test data derived from a nonlinear MPCV representation. The impact of the MPCV nonlinearity on system response statistics is determined using a series of cumulative distribution functions in the form of a horsetail plot, or p-box. This results in an interval of probabilities for a specific response value, or an interval of response values at a specific probability.

Daniel C Kammer↗

Flight Test Evaluation of the Airborne Information for Lateral Spacing (AILS) Concept

The Airborne Information for Lateral Spacing (AILS) concept is designed to support independent parallel approach operations to runways spaced as close as 2,500 feet. This report briefly describes the AILS operational concept and the results of a flight test of one implementation of this concept. The focus of this flight test experiment was to validate a prior simulator study, evaluating pilot performance, pilot acceptability, and minimum miss-distances for the rare situation in which an aircraft on one approach intrudes into the path of an aircraft on the other approach. Although the flight data set was not meant to be a statistically valid sample, the trends acquired in flight followed those of the simulator and therefore met the intent of validating the findings from the simulator. Results from this study showed that the design-goal mean miss-distance of 1,200 feet to potential collision situations was surpassed with an actual mean miss-distance of 1,859 feet. Pilot reaction times to the alerting system, which was an operational concern, averaged 0.65 seconds, were well below the design goal reaction time of 2.0 seconds. From the results of both of these tests, it can be concluded that this operational concept, with supporting technology and procedures, may provide an operationally viable means for conducting simultaneous, independent instrument approaches to runways spaced as close as 2500 ft.

Abbott, Terence S.↗

Combining Three-Dimensional Modeling with Artificial Intelligence to Increase Specificity and Precision in Peptide–MHC Binding Predictions

The reliable prediction of the affinity of candidate peptides for the MHC is important for predicting their potential antigenicity and thus influences medical applications, such as decisions on their inclusion in T cell–based vaccines. In this study, we present a rapid, predictive computational approach that combines a popular, sequence-based artificial neural network method, NetMHCpan 4.0, with three-dimensional structural modeling. We find that the ensembles of bound peptide conformations generated by the programs MODELLER and Rosetta FlexPepDock are less variable in geometry for strong binders than for low-affinity peptides. In tests on 1271 peptide sequences for which the experimental dissociation constants of binding to the well-characterized murine MHC allele H-2D b are known, by applying thresholds for geometric fluctuations the structure-based approach in a standalone manner drastically improves the statistical specificity, reducing the number of false positives. Furthermore, filtering candidates generated with NetMHCpan 4.0 with the structure-based predictor led to an increase in the positive predictive value (PPV) of the peptides correctly predicted to bind very strongly (i.e., Kd < 100 nM) from 40 to 52% (p = 0.027). The combined method also significantly improved the PPV when tested on five human alleles, including some with limited data for training. Overall, an average increase of 10% in the PPV was found over the standalone sequence-based method. The combined method should be useful in the rapid design of effective T cell–based vaccines.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Roles of Engineering Correlations in Hypersonic Entry Boundary Layer Transition Prediction

Efforts to design and operate hypersonic entry vehicles are constrained by many considerations that involve all aspects of an entry vehicle system. One of the more significant physical phenomenon that affect entry trajectory and thermal protection system design is the occurrence of boundary layer transition from a laminar to turbulent state. During the Space Shuttle Return To Flight activity following the loss of Columbia and her crew of seven, NASA's entry aerothermodynamics community implemented an engineering correlation based framework for the prediction of boundary layer transition on the Orbiter. The methodology for this implementation relies upon similar correlation techniques that have been is use for several decades. What makes the Orbiter boundary layer transition correlation implementation unique is that a statistically significant data set was acquired in multiple ground test facilities, flight data exists to assist in establishing a better correlation and the framework was founded upon state of the art chemical nonequilibrium Navier Stokes flow field simulations. Recent entry flight testing performed with the Orbiter Discovery now provides a means to validate this engineering correlation approach to higher confidence. These results only serve to reinforce the essential role that engineering correlations currently exercise in the design and operation of entry vehicles. The framework of information related to the Orbiter empirical boundary layer transition prediction capability will be utilized to establish a fresh perspective on this role, and to discuss the characteristics which are desirable in a next generation advancement. The details of the paper will review the experimental facilities and techniques that were utilized to perform the implementation of the Orbiter RTF BLT Vsn 2 prediction capability. Statistically significant results for multiple engineering correlations from a ground testing campaign will be reviewed in order to describe why only certain correlations were selected for complete implementation to support the Shuttle Program. Historical Orbiter flight data on early boundary layer transition due to protruding gap fillers will be described in relation to the selected empirical correlations. In addition, Orbiter entry flight testing results from the BLT Flight Experiment will be discussed in relation to these correlations. Applicability of such correlations to the entry design problem will be reviewed, and finally a perspective on the desirable characteristics for a next generation capability based on high fidelity physical models will be provided.

Campbell, Charles H.↗

Statistical change detection of building energy consumption: Applications to savings estimation

The surge in interval meter data availability and associated activity in energy data analytics has inspired new interest in advanced methods for building efficiency savings estimation. Statistical and machine learning approaches are being explored to improve the energy baseline models used to measure and verify savings. One outstanding challenge is the ability to identify and account for operational changes that may confound savings estimates. In the measurement and verification (M&V) context, ‘non-routine events’ (NREs) cause changes in building energy use that are not attributable to installed efficiency measures, and not accounted for in the baseline model’s independent variables. In the M&V process NREs must be accounted for as ‘adjustments’ to appropriately attribute the estimated energy savings to the specific efficiency interventions that were implemented. Currently this is a manual and custom process, conducted using professional judgment and engineering expertise. As such it remains a barrier in scaling and standardizing meter-based savings estimation. Here in this work, a data driven methodology was developed to (partially) automate, and therefore streamline the process of detecting NREs in the post-retrofit period and making associated savings adjustments. The proposed NRE detection algorithm is based on a statistical change point detection method and a dissimilarity metric. The dissimilarity metric measures the proximity between the actual time series of the post-retrofit energy consumption and the projected baseline, which is generated using a statistical baseline model. The suggested approach for NRE adjustment involves the NRE detection algorithm, the M&V practitioner, and a regression modeling algorithm. The performance of the detection and adjustment algorithm was evaluated using a simulation-generated test data set, and two benchmark algorithms. Results show a high true positive detection rate (75%-100% across the test cases), higher than ideal false positive detection rates (20%-70%), and low errors in energy adjustment (<0.7%). These results indicate that the algorithm holds for helping M&V practitioners to streamline the process of handling NREs. Moreover, the change point algorithm and underlying statistical principles could prove valuable for other building analytics applications such as anomaly detection and fault diagnostics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A unified catalogue-level reanalysis of stage-III cosmic shear surveys

ABSTRACT Cosmological parameter constraints from recent galaxy imaging surveys are reaching percent-level accuracy on the effective amplitude of the lensing signal, S8. The upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory will produce subpercent level measurements of cosmological parameters, providing a milestone test of the ΛCDM model. To supply guidance to the upcoming LSST analysis, it is important to understand thoroughly the results from different recent galaxy imaging surveys and assess their consistencies. In this work, we perform a unified catalogue-level reanalysis of three cosmic shear data sets: the first year data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES-Y1), the 1000 deg2 data set from the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS-1000), and the first year data from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC-Y1). We utilize a pipeline developed and rigorously tested by the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration to perform the reanalysis and assess the robustness of the results to analysis choices. We find the S8 constraint to be robust to two different small-scale modelling approaches, and varying choices of cosmological priors. Our unified analysis allows the consistency of the surveys to be rigorously tested, and we find the three surveys to be statistically consistent. Due to the partially overlapping footprint, we model the cross-covariance between KiDS-1000 and HSC-Y1 approximately when combining all three data sets, resulting in a 1.6–1.9 per cent constraint on S8 given different assumptions on the cross-covariance.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Modeling Flow and Transport in Fractured Rock using Machine Learning [Slides]

Fractured systems in the subsurface play a role in many natural and engineered applications such as geologic carbon sequestration, hydraulic fracturing and underground nuclear test detection. Structural information (fracture size, orientation, etc.) plays a key role in governing the dominant physics for these systems but can only be known statistically. Traditional modeling approaches either ignore or idealize structural information at these larger scales because we lack a computational framework that utilizes it in its entirety. The work presented here integrates computational physics, machine learning and graph theory to make a paradigm shift from computationally intensive high-fidelity models to coarse-scale graphs without loss of critical structural information. We exploit the underlying discrete structure of fracture networks in systems considering flow through fractures and fracture propagation. We demonstrate that compact graph representations require significantly fewer degrees of freedom (dof) to capture micro-fracture information and further accelerate these models with Machine Learning.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Processing electrophysiological signals for the monitoring of alertness

Mathematical techniques are described for processing EEG signals associated with varying states of alertness. Fast algorithms for implementing real-time computations of alertness estimates were developed. A realization of the phase-distortionless digital filter is presented which approaches real-time filtering and a transform for EEG signals. This transform provides information for the alertness estimates and can be performed in real time. A statistical test for stationarity in EEG signals is being developed that will provide a method for determining the duration of the EEG signals necessary for estimating the short-time power or energy spectra for nonstationary analysis of EEG signals.

Lai, D. C.↗

The systematic radial downflow in the transition region of the quiet sun from limb-to-limb observations of the C IV resonance lines

This paper presents absolute velocities of C IV 1548, 1550 nm measured as a function of position along the solar equator, which was free of both active regions and coronal holes, and uniformly representative of the quiet sun. These observations were made with moderate spatial resolution (18 arcsec) using an EUV spectrometer dedicated to measuring absolute wavelengths (velocities) by direct comparison with a platinum spectrum generated on board the sounding rocket. On the assumption that systematic horizontal motions cancel statistically so that the line-of-sight velocities approach zero at the limb, a net radial downflow of 7.5 + or - 1.0 km/sec was found. The assumption was tested using the wavelength reference and found to be valid within the absolute accuracy of the rest wavelengths of the C IV lines.

Rottman, Gary J.↗

The Role of Formal Experiment Design in Hypersonic Flight System Technology Development

Hypersonic airbreathing engine (scramjet) powered vehicles are being considered to replace conventional rocket-powered launch systems. Effective utilization of scramjet engines requires careful integration with the air vehicle. This integration synergistically combines aerodynamic forces with propulsive cycle functions of the engine. Due to the highly integrated nature of the hypersonic vehicle design problem, the large flight envelope, and the large number of design variables, the use of a statistical design approach in design is effective. Modern Design-of-Experiments (MDOE) has been used throughout the Hyper-X program, for both systems analysis and experimental testing. Application of MDOE fall into four categories: (1) experimental testing; (2) studies of unit phenomena; (3) refining engine design; and (4) full vehicle system optimization. The MDOE process also provides analytical models, which are also used to document lessons learned, supplement low-level design tools, and accelerate future studies. This paper will discuss the design considerations for scramjet-powered vehicles, specifics of MDOE utilized for Hyper-X, and present highlights from the use of these MDOE methods within the Hyper-X Program.

McClinton, Charles R.↗

The X-Ray Variable Sky

A novel approach to search for rapid time variability of every source, whether persistent or transient, within the entire ROSAT detector field has been developed. Semi-automated software statistically tests the photon arrival time event list for source variability and reports significant (greater than 5 sigma) variable enhancement in the photon count rate on time scales ranging from 5-500 seconds. The computational algorithms have been thoroughly tested, and are able to discriminate between false detections induced by instrumental effects, and real X-ray variable sources (XRVs); when carefully scrutinized by the PI. The analysis has proven to be successful, with both periodic and transient XRVs having been found. Some of these are entirely new discoveries, while others have been detected in previous X-ray missions, yet their nature remained elusive since source identification and analysis had yet to be performed. On average, one new (unidentified) XRV is found per ROSAT PSPC field analyzed. In some cases the XRVs show only a transient signature (a burst type event) with no persistent X-ray or other known (optical) counterpart. The ambitious goal of this project was to process as much of the ROSAT PSPC archive data as feasibly possible to discover XRVs and analyze this data.

Stringfellow, Guy↗