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At least 217 records · Page 12

Towards physics-inspired data-driven weather forecasting: integrating data assimilation with a deep spatial-transformer-based U-NET in a case study with ERA5

Abstract. There is growing interest in data-driven weather prediction (DDWP), e.g., using convolutional neural networks such as U-NET that are trained on data from models or reanalysis. Here, we propose three components, inspired by physics, to integrate with commonly used DDWP models in order to improve their forecast accuracy. These components are (1) a deep spatial transformer added to the latent space of U-NET to capture rotation and scaling transformation in the latent space for spatiotemporal data, (2) a data-assimilation (DA) algorithm to ingest noisy observations and improve the initial conditions for next forecasts, and (3) a multi-time-step algorithm, which combines forecasts from DDWP models with different time steps through DA, improving the accuracy of forecasts at short intervals. To show the benefit and feasibility of each component, we use geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500) from ERA5 reanalysis and examine the short-term forecast accuracy of specific setups of the DDWP framework. Results show that the spatial-transformer-based U-NET (U-STN) clearly outperforms the U-NET, e.g., improving the forecast skill by 45 %. Using a sigma-point ensemble Kalman (SPEnKF) algorithm for DA and U-STN as the forward model, we show that stable, accurate DA cycles are achieved even with high observation noise. This DDWP+DA framework substantially benefits from large (O(1000)) ensembles that are inexpensively generated with the data-driven forward model in each DA cycle. The multi-time-step DDWP+DA framework also shows promise; for example, it reduces the average error by factors of 2–3. These results show the benefits and feasibility of these three components, which are flexible and can be used in a variety of DDWP setups. Furthermore, while here we focus on weather forecasting, the three components can be readily adopted for other parts of the Earth system, such as ocean and land, for which there is a rapid growth of data and need for forecast and assimilation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A New Process for Fabricating Random Silicon Nanotips

An improved process for the fabrication of random arrays of silicon nanotips has been demonstrated to be feasible. Relative to other such processes, this process offers advantages of low cost and simplicity. Moreover, this process can readily be combined with other processes used to fabricate integrated circuits and other monolithic silicon structures. Arrays of silicon nanotips are subjects of research and development efforts directed toward utilizing them as field emitters in flat-panel displays, vacuum microelectronics, and microwave devices. Other silicon-nanotip-fabrication processes developed thus far predominantly include lithography, etching, and/or elaborate deposition steps followed by oxide sharpening steps and are both process intensive as well as expensive. In addition to being cheaper and simpler, the present process can efficiently produce silicon nanotips that range in height from a few microns to several tens of microns and are distributed over large areas. The process mentioned here can be summarized as consisting of (1) the growth of micro-etch masks on a silicon substrate, followed by (2) etching away of the masks, along with some of the substrate, to make an array of sharp tips. In the first step of the process, a cleaned silicon substrate is subjected to reactive ion etching (RIE) in a certain mixture of oxygen and carbon tetrafluoride under radio-frequency excitation. This process step results in the growth of fluorine based compounds in the form of stumps randomly distributed on the substrate. These stumps are known in the art as polymer RIE grass. The dimensions of these stumps are of the order of hundreds of nanometers, the exact values depending on process time and gas composition. The areal density of the stumps decreases with increasing process time as they grow and merge with neighboring stumps. These stumps constitute the micro-etch masks for the next step of the process. In the second step of the process, the substrate covered with the microetch masks is subjected to deep reactive ion etching (DRIE) process, which consists of cycles of reactive ion etching alternating with passivation (the Bosch process). The gas used in the etching substeps is sulfur hexafluoride (SF6); the gas used in the passivation substeps is octafluorocyclobutane (C4F8). The portions of the substrate directly under the RIE grass stubs are etched more slowly than are the portions between the stubs. Hence, what remains at the end of the process, after the stubs and parts of the substrate have been etched away, are silicon spikes where the stubs were (see figure). In a variation of the process, one starts with a silicon or silicon-on-insulator substrate with the intent to etch through the full thickness of the substrate. That is to say, one chooses the thickness so that the DRIE step releases individual nanotips. Such individual silicon nanotips may have utility as microscopic probes in biomedical applications.

Manohara, Harish↗

Pulsed Airborne Lidar Measurements of Atmospheric CO2 Column Absorption and Line Shapes from 3-13 km Altitudes

We have developed a pulsed lidar technique for measuring the tropospheric CO2 concentrations as a candidate for NASA's planned ASCENDS space mission. Our technique uses two pulsed laser transmitters allowing simultaneous measurement of a CO2 absorption line in the 1570 nm band, O2 extinction in the Oxygen A-band and surface height and backscatter. The lidar measures the energy and time of flight of the laser echoes reflected from the atmosphere and surface. The lasers are rapidly and precisely stepped in wavelength across the CO2 line and an O2 line region during the measurement. The direct detection receiver uses a telescope and photon counting detectors, and measures the background light and energies of the laser echoes from the surface along with scattering from any aerosols in the path. The gas extinction and column densities for the CO2 and O2 gases are estimated from the ratio of the on- and off- line signals via the DIAL technique. Time gating is used to isolate the laser echo signals from the surface, and to reject laser photons scattered in the atmosphere. The time of flight of the laser pulses are also used to estimate the height of the scattering surface and to identify cases of mixed cloud and ground scattering. We have developed an airborne lidar to demonstrate the CO2 measurement from the NASA Glenn Lear-25 aircraft. The airborne lidar steps the pulsed laser's wavelength across the selected CO2 line with 20 steps per scan. The line scan rate is 450 Hz, the laser pulse widths are 1 usec, and laser pulse energy is 24 uJ. The time resolved laser backscatter is collected by a 20 cm telescope, detected by a photomultiplier and is recorded by a photon counting system. We made initial airborne measurements on flights during fall 2008. Laser backscatter and absorption measurements were made over a variety of land and water surfaces and through thin clouds. The atmospheric CO2 column measurements using the 1572.33 nm CO2 lines. Two flights were made above the US Department of Energy's (DOE) SGP ARM site at altitudes from 3-8 km. These flights were coordinated with DOE investigators who flew an in-situ CO2 sensor on a Cessna aircraft under the path. The increasing CO2 line absorptions with altitudes were evident and comparison with in-situ measurements showed agreements to 6 ppm. In spring 2009 we improved the aircraft's nadir window and during July and August we made 9 additional 2 hour long flights and measured the atmospheric CO2 absorption and line shapes using the 1572.33 nm CO2 line. Measurements were made at stepped altitudes from 3-13 km over a variety of surface types in Nebraska, Illinois, the SGP ARM site, and near and over the Chesapeake Bay in North Carolina and eastern Virginia. Strong laser signals and clear CO2 line shapes were observed at all altitudes, and some measurements were made through thin clouds. The flights over the ARM site were underflown with in-situ measurements made from the DOE Cessna. Analysis shows that the average signal levels follow predicted values, the altimetry measurements had an uncertainty of about 4 m, and that the average optical line depths follow the number density calculated from in-situ sensor readings. The Oklahoma and east coast flights were coordinated with a LaRC/ITT CO2 lidar on the LaRC UC-12 aircraft, a LaRC in-situ CO2 sensor, and the Oklahoma flights also included a JPL CO2 lidar on a Twin Otter aircraft. More details of the flights, measurements, analysis and scaling to space will be described in the presentation.

Abshire, James↗

Stratospheric Impact of 1D-Variation Assimilation of TOVS/ATOVS Data

This paper will present an assessment of the impact to the stratospheric circulation of the DAO-GEOS2 (Data Assimilation Office -Goddard Earth Observing System) attributable to an improved 1D-Variational retrieval of heights. The assimilated heights are retrieved from both the TOVS (TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder) and the ATOVS (Advanced TOVS) sounders. Each sounder's sensitivity to temperature changes in the stratosphere will be addressed and its relationship to the model's background flow evaluated. Also detailed are the steps to ensure the quality of the data being assimilated. Finally the temporal and spatial scales, important to the stratospheric mean flow, will be evaluated in terms of the DAO-GEOS2 response to the assimilated heights.

Rokke, Laurie↗

3D Printed Parahydrophobic Surfaces as Multireaction Platforms

We report Parahydrophobic surfaces (PHSs) composed of arrays of cubic μ-pillars with a double scale of roughness and variable wettability were systematically obtained in one step and a widely accessible stereolithographic Formlabs 3D printer. The wettability control was achieved by combining the geometrical parameters (H = height and P = pitch) and the surface modification with fluoroalkyl silane compounds. Homogeneous distribution of F and Si atoms onto the pillars was observed by XPS and SEM-EDAX. A nano-roughness on the heads of the pillars was achieved without any post-treatment. The smallest P values lead to surfaces with static contact angles (CAs) >150° regardless of the H utilized. Interestingly, the relationship 0.6 ≤ H/P ≤ 2.6 obtained here was in good agreement with the H/P values reported for nano- and submicron pillars. Furthermore, experimental CAs, advancing and receding CAs, were consistent with the theoretical prediction from the Cassie–Baxter model. Structures covered with perfluorodecyltriethoxysilane with high H and short P lead to PHSs. Conversely, structures covered with perfluorodecyltrimethoxysilane exhibited a superhydrophobic behavior. Finally, several aqueous reactions, such as precipitation, coordination complex, and nanoparticle synthesis, were carried out by placing the reactive agents as microdroplets on the parahydrophobic pillars, demonstrating the potential application as chemical multi-reaction array platforms for a large variety of relevant fields in microdroplet manipulation, microfluidics systems, and health monitoring, among others.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Nonstationary atmospheric boundary layer turbulence simulation

Report on a new and general technique for simulating atmospheric turbulence-like random processes which are statistically homogeneous along the horizontal and nonhomogeneous along the vertical. This technique is general in the sense that it can be used for a broad class of similar problems. Like the other presently available schemes, the techniques presented are based on the Dryden hypothesis and Taylor's frozen eddy hypothesis; however, they go a step further by utilizing certain self-similarity properties of the Dryden spectral density function which permits the development of height invariant filters. These filters are in turn used to generate vertically homogeneous (statistically) random processes from which turbulence at any specified level in the boundary layer can be simulated, thus facilitating the simulation of a nonstationary turbulence process along the flight path of an aircraft during take-off or landing.

Fichtl, G. H.↗

Thermomechanical evolution of oceanic fracture zones

To explain the topographic and gravitational signals of fracture zones (FZs), a realistic model is developed and compared with Seasat altimeter data across three major FZs. The model is based on the thermal, subsidence, and mechanical models of the oceanic lithosphere. The model is used to calculate the FZ topography and the evolution of the geoid signature across a FZ. When lithospheric flexure is included, the model explains the persistence of sharp FZ geoid steps on old seafloor as well as the asymmetry of the geoid steps across major FZs. The model does not explain the disappearance of the thermal part of the FZ geoid signature. The model profiles are used to access the various techniques for estimating the overall geoid offsets across FZs. It is shown that steps may be underestimated by as much as 50 percent. These predictions, if correct, will force reinterpretation of published geoid height versus age data derived from altimeter profiles across FZs.

Sandwell, D. T.↗

Full numerical simulation of coflowing, axisymmetric jet diffusion flames

The near field of a non-premixed flame in a low speed, coflowing axisymmetric jet is investigated numerically using full simulation. The time-dependent governing equations are solved by a second-order, explicit finite difference scheme and a single-step, finite rate model is used to represent the chemistry. Steady laminar flame results show the correct dependence of flame height on Peclet number and reaction zone thickness on Damkoehler number. Forced simulations reveal a large difference in the instantaneous structure of scalar dissipation fields between nonbuoyant and buoyant cases. In the former, the scalar dissipation marks intense reaction zones, supporting the flamelet concept; however, results suggest that flamelet modeling assumptions need to be reexamined. In the latter, this correspondence breaks down, suggesting that modifications to the flamelet modeling approach are needed in buoyant turbulent diffusion flames.

Mahalingam, S.↗

Studies of a Space Lidar Instrument for the ASCENDS Mission

We have developed a lidar technique for measuring the tropospheric C02 concentrations as a candidate for NASA's planned ASCENDS mission. Our technique uses two pulsed laser transmitters allowing simultaneous measurement of a C02 absorption line in the 1570 nm band, 02 extinction in the Oxygen A-band and surface height and backscatter. The lidar measures the energy and time of flight of the laser echoes reflected from the atmosphere and surface. The lasers are stepped in wavelength across the C02 line and an 02 line region during the measurement. The receiver uses a telescope and photon counting detectors, and measures the background light and energies of the laser echoes from the surface along with scattering from any aerosols in the path. The gas extinction and column densities for the C02 and 02 gases are estimated from the ratio of the on- and off- line signals via the DIAL technique. Pulsed laser signals and a time gated receiver are used to isolate the laser echo signals from the surface, to reject laser photons scattered in the atmosphere, and measure the surface height and scattering profile in the path. We have recently completed a second design study for the space instrument. For the study, we selected a nominal sun-synchronous orbit with an altitude of 400 km and equator crossing time of 1:30 pm, and a receiver telescope with 1.5 m diameter.

Abshire, J. B.↗

Using the VAHIRR Radar Algorithm to Investigate Lightning Cessation

Accurately determining the threat posed by lightning is a major area for improved operational forecasts. Most efforts have focused on the initiation of lightning within a storm, with far less effort spent investigating lightning cessation. Understanding both components, initiation and cessation, are vital to improving lightning safety. Few organizations actively forecast lightning onset or cessation. One such organization is the 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) for the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45WS has identified that charged anvil clouds remain a major threat of continued lightning and can greatly extend the window of a potential lightning strike. Furthermore, no discernable trend of total lightning activity has been observed consistently for all storms. This highlights the need for more research to find a robust method of knowing when a storm will cease producing lightning. Previous lightning cessation work has primarily focused on forecasting the cessation of cloud-to -ground lightning only. A more recent, statistical study involved total lightning (both cloud-to-ground and intracloud). Each of these previous works has helped the 45WS take steps forward in creating improved and ultimately safer lightning cessation forecasts. Each study has either relied on radar data or recommended increased use of radar data to improve cessation forecasts. The reasoning is that radar data is able to either directly or by proxy infer more about dynamical environment leading to cloud electrification and eventually lightning cessation. The authors of this project are focusing on a two ]step approach to better incorporate radar data and total lightning to improve cessation forecasts. This project will utilize the Volume Averaged Height Integrated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR) algorithm originally developed during the Airborne Field Mill II (ABFM II) research project. During the project, the VAHIRR product showed a trend of increasing values with increases in the electric field magnitude above 3 kV/m. An extreme value analysis showed that VAHIRR values less than or equal to 10 dBZ-km showed that the probability of having an electric field magnitude larger than 3 kV/m was less than one in ten thousand. VAHIRR also was found to be sensitive at indicating anvil clouds that posed a threat of initiating a lightning flash. This project seeks to use VAHIRR to analyze its utility as a lightning cessation tool, particularly dealing with the threat posed by detached anvils. The results from this project will serve as a baseline effectiveness of radar ]based lightning cessation algorithms. This baseline will be used in the second, and concurrent work by the co ]author fs who are developing a lightning cessation algorithm based on dual ]polarimetric radar data. Ultimately, an accurate method for identifying lightning cessation can save money on lost manpower time as well as greatly improve lightning safety.

Stano, Geoffrey T.↗

Storm Surge Modeling as an Application of Local Time-Stepping in MPAS-Ocean

This paper presents the first practical application of local time-stepping (LTS) schemes in the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Ocean (MPAS-O). We use LTS schemes in a single-layer, global ocean model that predicts the storm surge around the eastern coast of the United States during Hurricane Sandy. The variable-resolution meshes used are of unprecedentedly high resolution in MPAS-O, containing cells as small as 125 m wide in Delaware Bay. It is shown that a particular, third-order LTS scheme (LTS3) produces sea-surface height solutions that are of comparable quality to solutions produced by the classical four-stage, fourth-order Runge-Kutta method (RK4) with a uniform time step on the same meshes. Furthermore, LTS3 is up to 35% faster in the best cases considered, where the number of cells using the coarse time-step relative to those using the fine time-step is as low as 1:1. This shows that LTS schemes are viable for use in MPAS-O with the added benefit of substantially less computational cost. The results of these performance experiments inform us of the requirements for efficient mesh design and configuration of LTS regions for LTS schemes. In particular, we see that for LTS to be efficient on a given mesh, it is important to have enough cells using the coarse time-step relative to those using the fine time-step, typically at least 1:5 to see an increase in performance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Analysis of the Selected Materials Used in Step Measurements During Pre-Fits of Thermal Protection System Tiles and the Accuracy of Measurements Made Using These Selected Materials

The goal of this research project was be to compare and contrast the selected materials used in step measurements during pre-fits of thermal protection system tiles and to compare and contrast the accuracy of measurements made using these selected materials. The reasoning for conducting this test was to obtain a clearer understanding to which of these materials may yield the highest accuracy rate of exacting measurements in comparison to the completed tile bond. These results in turn will be presented to United Space Alliance and Boeing North America for their own analysis and determination. Aerospace structures operate under extreme thermal environments. Hot external aerothermal environments in high Mach number flights lead to high structural temperatures. The differences between tile heights from one to another are very critical during these high Mach reentries. The Space Shuttle Thermal Protection System is a very delicate and highly calculated system. The thermal tiles on the ship are measured to within an accuracy of .001 of an inch. The accuracy of these tile measurements is critical to a successful reentry of an orbiter. This is why it is necessary to find the most accurate method for measuring the height of each tile in comparison to each of the other tiles. The test results indicated that there were indeed differences in the selected materials used in step measurements during prefits of Thermal Protection System Tiles and that Bees' Wax yielded a higher rate of accuracy when compared to the baseline test. In addition, testing for experience level in accuracy yielded no evidence of difference to be found. Lastly the use of the Trammel tool over the Shim Pack yielded variable difference for those tests.

Kranz, David William↗

Optimization of OT-MACH Filter Generation for Target Recognition

An automatic Optimum Trade-off Maximum Average Correlation Height (OT-MACH) filter generator for use in a gray-scale optical correlator (GOC) has been developed for improved target detection at JPL. While the OT-MACH filter has been shown to be an optimal filter for target detection, actually solving for the optimum is too computationally intensive for multiple targets. Instead, an adaptive step gradient descent method was tested to iteratively optimize the three OT-MACH parameters, alpha, beta, and gamma. The feedback for the gradient descent method was a composite of the performance measures, correlation peak height and peak to side lobe ratio. The automated method generated and tested multiple filters in order to approach the optimal filter quicker and more reliably than the current manual method. Initial usage and testing has shown preliminary success at finding an approximation of the optimal filter, in terms of alpha, beta, gamma values. This corresponded to a substantial improvement in detection performance where the true positive rate increased for the same average false positives per image.

false alarm reduction↗

Stochastic modal velocity field in rough-wall turbulence

Stochastically generated instantaneous velocity profiles are used to reproduce the outer region of rough-wall turbulent boundary layers in a range of Reynolds numbers extending from the wind tunnel to field conditions. Each profile consists in a sequence of steps, defined by the modal velocities and representing uniform momentum zones (UMZs), separated by velocity jumps representing the internal shear layers. Height-dependent UMZ is described by a minimal set of attributes: thickness, mid-height elevation, and streamwise (modal) and vertical velocities. These are informed by experimental observations and reproducing the statistical behaviour of rough-wall turbulence and attached eddy scaling, consistent with the corresponding experimental datasets. Sets of independently generated profiles are reorganized in the streamwise direction to form a spatially consistent modal velocity field, starting from any randomly selected profile. The operation allows one to stretch or compress the velocity field in space, increases the size of the domain and adjusts the size of the largest emerging structures to the Reynolds number of the simulated flow. By imposing the autocorrelation function of the modal velocity field to be anchored on the experimental measurements, we obtain a physically based spatial resolution, which is employed in the computation of the velocity spectrum, and second-order structure functions. The results reproduce the Kolmogorov inertial range extending from the UMZ and their attached-eddy vertical organization to the very-large-scale motions (VLSMs) introduced with the reordering process. The dynamic role of VLSM is confirmed in the –u'w' co-spectra and in their vertical derivative, representing a scale-dependent pressure gradient contribution.

42 ENGINEERING↗

From Oxo to Oxyl to Biradical: Systematic Multireference Calculations of Methane Activation at MOF Nodes

Methane C–H activation at transition-metal sites often involves electronic structures that challenge conventional single-reference electronic structure descriptions. Although Kohn–Sham density functional theory (DFT) is widely used to study catalytic trends, its reliability for reactions involving strongly correlated species remains uncertain. Here we present a systematic multireference investigation of methane activation at metal–organic framework (MOF) node catalysts across the 3d transition-metal series. We introduce an automated workflow for active space selection to enable consistent application of multireference methods, including multiconfiguration pair-density functional theory and n-electron valence state perturbation theory, to these catalytic systems. These calculations show substantial static correlation in the C–H activation reaction step and predict activation barriers that differ from DFT by 30–70 kJ mol–1, with DFT often qualitatively disagreeing in barrier height trends across transition metals. Analysis of multireference wave functions shows that reactivity is governed by the electronic structure of the M–O moiety along a continuum from metal–oxo to oxyl radical and O biradical character. Increased oxygen-centered spin density and weakened M–O bonding are identified as descriptors of catalytic activity which correlate with lower activation barriers.

Wardzala, Jacob↗

An unusual lightning flash at Kennedy Space Center

A lightning flash that struck the 150-meter weather tower at Kennedy Space Center was studied by several research groups using various techniques. The flash had unusually large peak currents and a stepped leader of relatively short duration. The charged regions neutralized by the three return strokes were located within a horizontal layer between heights of about 6 and 8 kilometers, where environmental temperatures were about -10 to -20 C. The charge source for the first return stroke coincided with a vertical shaft of precipitation inferred to have been graupel or hail. Charge sources for subsequent strokes were near the edge of the detectable precipitation echo. The overall channel length was about 10 kilometers. A vertically oriented intracloud discharge occurred after the three return strokes.

Uman, M. A.↗

The Galileo Energetic Particles Detector

Amongst its complement of particles and fields instruments, the Galileo spacecraft carries an Energetic Particles Detector (EPD) designed to measure the characteristics of particle populations important in determining the size, shape, and dynamics of the Jovian magnetosphere. To do this the EPD provides 4pi angular coverage and spectral measurements for Z greater than or equal to 1 ions from 20 keV to 55 MeV, for electrons from 15 keV to greater than 11 MeV, and for the elemental species helium through iron from approximately 10 keV/nucl to 15 MeV/nucl. Two bidirectional telescopes, mounted on a stepping platform, employ magnetic deflection, energy loss versus energy, and time-of-flight techniques to provide 64 rate channels and pulse height analysis of priority selected events. The EPD data system provides a large number of possible operational modes from which a small number will be selected to optimize data collection during the many encounter and cruise phases of the mission. The EPD employs a number of safeing algorithms that are to be used in the event that its self-checking procedures indicate a problem. The instrument and its operation are described.

Williams, D. J.↗

Evolution of lightning flash density and reflectivity structure in a multicell thunderstorm

The radar reflectivity structure and the distribution of lightning in a storm cell was investigated using S-band and UHF-band radar data for six storm cells over Wallops Island. The S-band scans were vertical and continuous, while the UHF data were taken in steps of 2.5 deg elevation. The peak in lightning activity during the study corresponded to a merging of two storm cells. A minimum height of 7 km was found necessary for the appearance of a 40 dBZ core with lightning, which first appears in a multicell thunderstorm at the leading edge of the 50 dBZ core of the cell and between a cell and its decaying neighbor. The lightning moves further into the cell during cell decay and decreases in density. Finally, the lightning is offset horizontally from the precipitation core during cell growth but colocates with the precipitation core as the cell dissipates.

Mazur, V.↗