Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Stochastic Processes”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1998

A Kalman-Filter-Based Approach to Combining Independent Earth-Orientation Series

An approach. based upon the use of a Kalman filter. that is currently employed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) for combining independent measurements of the Earth's orientation, is presented. Since changes in the Earth's orientation can be described is a randomly excited stochastic process, the uncertainty in our knowledge of the Earth's orientation grows rapidly in the absence of measurements. The Kalman-filter methodology allows for an objective accounting of this uncertainty growth, thereby facilitating the intercomparison of measurements taken at different epochs (not necessarily uniformly spaced in time) and with different precision. As an example of this approach to combining Earth-orientation series, a description is given of a combination, SPACE95, that has been generated recently at JPL.

Gross, Richard S.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Tectonic-Climate Interactions in Action Orogenic Belts: Quantification of Dynamic Topography with SRTM data

This project was undertaken to examine the approach to steady state in collisional mountain belts. Although the primary thrust of this grant was to look at larger collisional mountain belts, such as the Himalaya, the Tien Shan, and Southern Alps, we began by looking at smaller structures represented by growing and propagating folds. Like ranges that are evolving toward a topographic steady state, these folds undergo a series of morphologic changes as they are progressively uplifted and eroded. We wanted to document the nature of these changes and to try to discern some of the underlying controls on them. We initially focused on the Wheeler Ridge anticline in southern California. Subsequently, we progressed to looking at the topographic development and the effects of differential uplift and glaciation on the Kyrgyz Range in the northern Tien Shan. This range is unusual inasmuch as it is transformed along its length from a simple uplift with a largely preserved Mesozoic erosion surface arching across it to a highly dissected and heavily glaciated uplift in the region where uplift has been sustained at higher rates over longer intervals. In efforts to understand the distribution of erosion rates at 10(exp 3) - 10(exp 5) year time scales, cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) concentrations have been gaining increasingly widespread usage (Brown et al., 1995; Riebe et al., 2004; Riebe et al., 2001; Vance et al., 2003). Most studies to date, however, have been conducted in slowly eroding ranges. In rapidly eroding mountains where landslides deliver most of the sediments to the rivers, we hypothesized that CRN concentrations could be highly perturbed by the stochastic processes of landsliding. Therefore, we undertook the development of a numerical model that simulated the effects of both landsliding and grain-by-grain attrition within fluvial catchments. This modeling effort has shown the effects of catchment size and erosion rate on CRN concentrations and allows a prediction of where to sample to obtain the optimal erosion rate estimates using CRN techniques. Finally, we developed computational techniques to operate on DEMs to extract useful information that would enable quantification of climate-erosion interactions. In particular, we worked on rapid techniques to define catchments of any given range of sizes, to extract channel gradients, to combine precipitation information to calculate discharge, and to utilize various stream-power models to determine the erosional energy within any given catchment within a transect. We briefly describe results from Wheeler Ridge, the Kyrgyz Range, the Nepal Himalaya, and our numerical modeling.

Burbank, Douglas W.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Studies of Cosmic Ray Modulation and Energetic Particle Propagation in Time-Dependent 3-Dimensional Heliospheric Magnetic Fields

The primary goal of this project was to perform theoretical calculations of propagation of cosmic rays and energetic particles in 3-dimensional heliospheric magnetic fields. We used Markov stochastic process simulation to achieve to this goal. We developed computation software that can be used to study particle propagation in, as two examples of heliospheric magnetic fields that have to be treated in 3 dimensions, a heliospheric magnetic field suggested by Fisk (1996) and a global heliosphere including the region beyond the termination shock. The results from our model calculations were compared with particle measurements from Ulysses, Earth-based spacecraft such as IMP-8, WIND and ACE, Voyagers and Pioneers in outer heliosphere for tests of the magnetic field models. We particularly looked for features of particle variations that can allow us to significantly distinguish the Fisk magnetic field from the conventional Parker spiral field. The computer code will eventually lead to a new generation of integrated software for solving complicated problems of particle acceleration, propagation and modulation in realistic 3-dimensional heliosphere of realistic magnetic fields and the solar wind with a single computation approach.

Zhang, Ming↗
NASA NTRS2006

NASA Radiation Track Image GUI for Assessing Space Radiation Biological Effects

The high-charge high-energy (HZE) ion components of the galactic cosmic rays when compared to terrestrial forms of radiations present unique challenges to biological systems. In this paper we present a deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) breakage model to visualize and analyze the impact of chromatin domains and DNA loops on clustering of DNA damage from X rays, protons, and HZE ions. Our model of DNA breakage is based on a stochastic process of DNA double-strand break (DSB) formulation that includes the amorphous model of the radiation track and a polymer model of DNA packed in the cell nucleus. Our model is a Monte-Carlo simulation based on a randomly located DSB cluster formulation that accomodates both high- and low-linear energy transfer radiations. We demonstrate that HZE ions have a strong impact on DSB clustering, both along the chromosome length and in the nucleus volume. The effects of chromosomal domains and DNA loops on the DSB fragment-size distribution and the spatial distribution of DSB in the nucleus were studied. We compare our model predictions with the spatial distribution of DSB obtained from experiments. The implications of our model predictions for radiation protection are discussed.

Ponomarev, Artem L.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Mathematical Modeling of the Origins of Life

The emergence of early metabolism - a network of catalyzed chemical reactions that supported self-maintenance, growth, reproduction and evolution of the ancestors of contemporary cells (protocells) was a critical, but still very poorly understood step on the path from inanimate to animate matter. Here, it is proposed and tested through mathematical modeling of biochemically plausible systems that the emergence of metabolism and its initial evolution towards higher complexity preceded the emergence of a genome. Even though the formation of protocellular metabolism was driven by non-genomic, highly stochastic processes the outcome was largely deterministic, strongly constrained by laws of chemistry. It is shown that such concepts as speciation and fitness to the environment, developed in the context of genomic evolution, also held in the absence of a genome.

Pohorille, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS2003

Dynamic cost risk estimation and budget misspecification

Cost risk for new technology development is estimated by explicit stochastic processes. Monte Carlo simulation is used to propagate technology development activity budget changes during the technology development cycle.

cost risk random walk Monte Carlo simulation princ↗
NASA NTRS1998

Quantum Analog Computing

Quantum analog computing is based upon similarity between mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics and phenomena to be computed. It exploits a dynamical convergence of several competing phenomena to an attractor which can represent an externum of a function, an image, a solution to a system of ODE, or a stochastic process.

Quantum analog computing quantum mechanics attract↗
NASA NTRS1996

Dynamical Simulation of Probabilities

It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-Lipschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices(such as random number generators). Self-orgainizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed. Special attention was focused upon coupled stochastic processes, defined in terms of conditional probabilities, for which joint probability does not exist. Simulations of quantum probabilities are also discussed.

number generators quantum probabilities↗
NASA NTRS2006

Estimating Random Errors Due to Shot Noise in Backscatter Lidar Observations

In this paper, we discuss the estimation of random errors due to shot noise in backscatter lidar observations that use either photomultiplier tube (PMT) or avalanche photodiode (APD) detectors. The statistical characteristics of photodetection are reviewed, and photon count distributions of solar background signals and laser backscatter signals are examined using airborne lidar observations at 532 nm using a photon-counting mode APD. Both distributions appear to be Poisson, indicating that the arrival at the photodetector of photons for these signals is a Poisson stochastic process. For Poisson-distributed signals, a proportional, one-to-one relationship is known to exist between the mean of a distribution and its variance. Although the multiplied photocurrent no longer follows a strict Poisson distribution in analog-mode APD and PMT detectors, the proportionality still exists between the mean and the variance of the multiplied photocurrent. We make use of this relationship by introducing the noise scale factor (NSF), which quantifies the constant of proportionality that exists between the root-mean-square of the random noise in a measurement and the square root of the mean signal. Using the NSF to estimate random errors in lidar measurements due to shot noise provides a significant advantage over the conventional error estimation techniques, in that with the NSF uncertainties can be reliably calculated from/for a single data sample. Methods for evaluating the NSF are presented. Algorithms to compute the NSF are developed for the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) lidar and tested using data from the Lidar In-space Technology Experiment (LITE). OCIS Codes:

Liu, Zhaoyan↗
NASA NTRS2005

Optimal Estimation of Clock Values and Trends from Finite Data

We show how to solve two problems of optimal linear estimation from a finite set of phase data. Clock noise is modeled as a stochastic process with stationary dth increments. The covariance properties of such a process are contained in the generalized autocovariance function (GACV). We set up two principles for optimal estimation: with the help of the GACV, these principles lead to a set of linear equations for the regression coefficients and some auxiliary parameters. The mean square errors of the estimators are easily calculated. The method can be used to check the results of other methods and to find good suboptimal estimators based on a small subset of the available data.

stationary increments↗
NASA NTRS2009

NASA Tech Briefs, October 2009

Topics covered include: Light-Driven Polymeric Bimorph Actuators; Guaranteeing Failsafe Operation of Extended-Scene Shack-Hartmann Wavefront Sensor Algorithm; Cloud Water Content Sensor for Sounding Balloons and Small UAVs; Pixelized Device Control Actuators for Large Adaptive Optics; T-Slide Linear Actuators; G4FET Implementations of Some Logic Circuits; Electrically Variable or Programmable Nonvolatile Capacitors; System for Automated Calibration of Vector Modulators; Complementary Paired G4FETs as Voltage-Controlled NDR Device; Three MMIC Amplifiers for the 120-to-200 GHz Frequency Band; Low-Noise MMIC Amplifiers for 120 to 180 GHz; Using Ozone To Clean and Passivate Oxygen-Handling Hardware; Metal Standards for Waveguide Characterization of Materials; Two-Piece Screens for Decontaminating Granular Material; Mercuric Iodide Anticoincidence Shield for Gamma-Ray Spectrometer; Improved Method of Design for Folding Inflatable Shells; Ultra-Large Solar Sail; Cooperative Three-Robot System for Traversing Steep Slopes; Assemblies of Conformal Tanks; Microfluidic Pumps Containing Teflon[Trademark] AF Diaphragms; Transparent Conveyor of Dielectric Liquids or Particles; Multi-Cone Model for Estimating GPS Ionospheric Delays; High-Sensitivity GaN Microchemical Sensors; On the Divergence of the Velocity Vector in Real-Gas Flow; Progress Toward a Compact, Highly Stable Ion Clock; Instruments for Imaging from Far to Near; Reflectors Made from Membranes Stretched Between Beams; Integrated Risk and Knowledge Management Program -- IRKM-P; LDPC Codes with Minimum Distance Proportional to Block Size; Constructing LDPC Codes from Loop-Free Encoding Modules; MMICs with Radial Probe Transitions to Waveguides; Tests of Low-Noise MMIC Amplifier Module at 290 to 340 GHz; and Extending Newtonian Dynamics to Include Stochastic Processes.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2011

Hidden Statistics of Schroedinger Equation

Work was carried out in determination of the mathematical origin of randomness in quantum mechanics and creating a hidden statistics of Schr dinger equation; i.e., to expose the transitional stochastic process as a "bridge" to the quantum world. The governing equations of hidden statistics would preserve such properties of quantum physics as superposition, entanglement, and direct-product decomposability while allowing one to measure its state variables using classical methods.

Zak, Michail↗
NASA NTRS2011

Solar Cycle Fine Structure and Surface Rotation from Ca II K-Line Time Series Data

Analysis of three and a half decades of data from the NSO/AFRL/Sac Peak K-line monitoring program yields evidence for four components to the variation: (a) the solar cycle, with considerable fine structure and a quasi-periodicity of 122.4 days; (b) a stochastic process, faster than (a) and largely independent of it, (c) a quasi-periodic signal due to rotational modulation, and of course (d) observational errors (shown to be quite small). Correlation and power spectrum analyses elucidate periodic and aperiodic variation of these chromospheric parameters. Time-frequency analysis is especially useful for extracting information about differential rotation, and in particular elucidates the connection between its behavior and fine structure of the solar cycle on approximately one-year time scales. These results further suggest that similar analyses will be useful at detecting and characterizing differential rotation in stars from stellar light-curves such as those being produced at NASA's Kepler observatory.

Scargle, Jeff↗
NASA NTRS2012

Liquid Structures and Physical Properties -- Ground Based Studies for ISS Experiments

Studies of electrostatically-levitated supercooled liquids have demonstrated strong short- and medium-range ordering in transition metal and alloy liquids, which can influence phase transitions like crystal nucleation and the glass transition. The structure is also related to the liquid properties. Planned ISS experiments will allow a deeper investigation of these results as well as the first investigations of a new type of coupling in crystal nucleation in primary crystallizing liquids, resulting from a linking of the stochastic processes of diffusion with interfacial-attachment. A brief description of the techniques used for ground-based studies and some results relevant to planned ISS investigations are discussed.

Kelton, K. F.↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Discussion on Uncertainty Representation and Interpretation in Model-Based Prognostics Algorithms based on Kalman Filter Estimation Applied to Prognostics of Electronics Components

This article discusses several aspects of uncertainty representation and management for model-based prognostics methodologies based on our experience with Kalman Filters when applied to prognostics for electronics components. In particular, it explores the implications of modeling remaining useful life prediction as a stochastic process and how it relates to uncertainty representation, management, and the role of prognostics in decision-making. A distinction between the interpretations of estimated remaining useful life probability density function and the true remaining useful life probability density function is explained and a cautionary argument is provided against mixing interpretations for the two while considering prognostics in making critical decisions.

Celaya, Jose R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Uncertainty Representation and Interpretation in Model-Based Prognostics Algorithms Based on Kalman Filter Estimation

This article discusses several aspects of uncertainty representation and management for model-based prognostics methodologies based on our experience with Kalman Filters when applied to prognostics for electronics components. In particular, it explores the implications of modeling remaining useful life prediction as a stochastic process, and how it relates to uncertainty representation, management and the role of prognostics in decision-making. A distinction between the interpretations of estimated remaining useful life probability density function is explained and a cautionary argument is provided against mixing interpretations for two while considering prognostics in making critical decisions.

Galvan, Jose Ramon↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Prevalence of the 22 deg Halo in Cirrus Clouds

Halos at 22 deg from the sun attributed to randomly-orientated, pristine hexagonal crystals are frequently observed through ice clouds. These frequent sightings of halos formed by pristine crystals pose an apparent inconsistency with the dominance of distorted, nonpristine ice crystals indicated by in situ and remote sensing data. Furthermore, the 46 deg halo, which is associated with pristine hexagonal crystals as well, is observed far less frequently than the 22 deg halo. Considering that plausible mechanisms that could cause crystal distortion such as aggregation, sublimation, riming and collisions are stochastic processes that likely lead to distributions of crystals with varying distortion levels, here the presence of the 22 deg and 46 deg halo features in phase functions of mixtures of pristine and distorted hexagonal ice crystals is examined. We conclude that the 22 deg halo feature is generally present if the contribution by pristine crystals to the total scattering cross section is greater than only about 10% in the case of compact particles or columns, and greater than about 40% for plates. The 46 deg halo feature is present only if the mean distortion level is low and the contribution of pristine crystals to the total scattering cross section is above about 20%, 50% and 70%, in the case of compact crystals, plates and columns, respectively. These results indicate that frequent sightings of 22 deg halos are not inconsistent with the observed dominance of distorted, non-pristine ice crystals. Furthermore, the low mean distortion levels and large contributions by pristine crystals needed to produce the 461 halo features provide a potential explanation of the common sighting of the 22 deg halo without any detectable 46 deg halo.

Halos↗
NASA NTRS2014

Assessing the Effect of Spaceflight on the Propensity for Astronauts to Develop Disk Herniation

BACKGROUND: A previous study [1] reported that the instantaneous risk of developing a Herniated Nucleus Pulposus (HNP) was higher in astronauts who had flown at least one mission, as compared with those in the corps who had not yet flown. However, the study only analyzed time to HNP after the first mission (if any) and did not account for the possible effects of multiple missions. While many HNP's occurred well into astronauts' careers or in some cases years after retirement, the higher incidence of HNPs relatively soon after completion of space missions appears to indicate that spaceflight may lead to an increased risk of HNP. The purpose of this study was to support the Human System Risk Board assessment of back pain, evaluate the risk of injury due to dynamic loads, and update the previous dataset which contained events up to December 31, 2006. METHODS: Data was queried from the electronic medical record and provided by the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health. The data included all 330 United States astronauts from 1959 through February 2014. Cases were confirmed by Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Computerized Tomography, Myelography, operative findings, or through clinical confirmation with a neurologist or neurosurgeon. In this analysis, astronauts who had an HNP at selection into the corps or had an HNP diagnosis prior to their first flight were excluded. The statistical challenges in using the available data to separate effects of spaceflight from those associated with general astronaut training and lifestyle on propensity to develop HNPs are many. The primary outcome is reported date of first HNP (if any), which at best is only an approximation to the actual time of occurrence. To properly analyze this data with a survival analysis model, one must also know the "exposure" time - i.e. how long each astronaut has been at risk for developing an HNP. If an HNP is reported soon after a mission, is it mission caused or general? If the former, exposure time should be counted from the time of landing (assuming the risk of HNP occurring during a mission is zero). If the latter, exposure time should be counted from the time of selection; however we can't directly know which one to use. In our analysis we take both of these possibilities into account with a competing risks model, wherein two distinct stochastic processes are going on: TG = time to HNP (general) and TS = time to HNP (spaceflight). Under this type of model, whichever of these occurs first is what we observe; in other words we don't observe TG or TS, only min(TG, TS). Here, we parameterized the model in terms of separate Weibull hazard functions for each process and estimated all parameters using maximum likelihood. In addition, we allowed for a "cured fraction" - i.e. the possibility that some astronauts may never develop an HNP. RESULTS: Results will include a depiction of the competing hazard functions as well as a probability curve for the relative likelihood that an HNP reported at a given time after a mission is actually mission caused. Other factors, such as dwell time in microgravity and vehicle landing environment will be explored. An overall assessment as to whether spaceflight truly exacerbates HNP risk will be made.

Feiveson, A. H.↗