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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12

A novel machine learning based identification of potential adopter of rooftop solar photovoltaics

With the proliferation of rooftop solar photovoltaic installations, there is a need to proactively predict consumer potential for solar photovoltaic adoption, for improved electric utility planning and operation. Traditional analytical modeling approaches are limited to a few survey features and a larger part of the survey would remain untouched by the decision model. This article presents a novel, data-driven modeling approach that strategically prunes a large set of consumer profile features using a machine learning framework to train a model for predicting potential solar adoption. The approach utilizes the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree model through a Light Gradient Boosting framework that improves significantly over the poor prediction accuracy of the existing approaches. Model training using focal-loss based supervision is used to overcome the difficulty in identifying the potential adopters that is inherent in conventional data-driven models. In addition, to overcome possible data sparsity in a limited survey sample, a Generative Adversarial Network is presented to create synthetic user samples and its effectiveness on model performance is assessed. A Bayesian optimization approach is used to systematically arrive at the hyperparameters of the proposed model. Validation of the presented approach on a survey data collected by the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association in Virginia in 2018 demonstrates the excellent predictive capability of the machine learning based approach to modeling solar adoption reliably.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Last Journey. I. An Extreme-scale Simulation on the Mira Supercomputer

The Last Journey is a large-volume, gravity-only, cosmological N-body simulation evolving more than 1.24 trillion particles in a periodic box with a side length of 5.025 Gpc. It was implemented using the HACC simulation and analysis framework on the BG/Q system Mira. The cosmological parameters are chosen to be consistent with the results from the Planck satellite. A range of analysis tools have been run in situ to enable a diverse set of science projects and, at the same time, keep the resulting data amount manageable. Analysis outputs have been generated starting at redshift z ~ 10 to allow for construction of synthetic galaxy catalogs using a semianalytic modeling approach in postprocessing. As part of our in situ analysis pipeline, we employ a new method for tracking halo substructures, introducing the concept of subhalo cores. The production of multiwavelength synthetic sky maps is facilitated by generating particle light cones in situ, also beginning at z ~ 10. We provide an overview of the simulation setup and generated data products; a first set of analysis results is presented. A subset of the data is publicly available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Spatially Dependent Seismic Wavefield Scattering from an Underground Chemical Explosion: Analysis of the Source Physics Experiment Dry Alluvium Geology Large- N Array

Explosion sources have been observed to generate significant shear‐wave energy despite their isotropic nature. To investigate this phenomenon, we conduct an analysis of the seismic data collected as part of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE): Dry Alluvium Geology (DAG) and investigate the generation of shear‐wave energy via scattering. The data were produced by three underground chemical explosions and consist of three‐component seismograms, which were recorded by the DAG Large‐N array. Synthetic tests suggest that for the DAG experiments, small‐scale stochastic heterogeneities, defined as features with correlation lengths of 10–100s of meters, are more effective than large‐scale geologic structure (scales >1–10 km) at reproducing the scattering of explosion generated wavefields observed at DAG. We analyze the seismic data for spatially variable ratios between transversely and radially polarized seismic energy, and then estimate the mean free path of P and S waves. All analyses are conducted within a frequency band of 5–50 Hz. The ratio of transversely to radially polarized energy is the highest in the east and west portion of the Large‐N array. In addition, the magnitude of the estimated S‐wave mean free path is shorter in the eastern portion of the Large‐N array. This variation indicates that the eastern area of the DAG array is where more scattering is occurring, suggesting azimuthal dependence of P‐to‐P and P‐to‐S scattering. Furthermore, this azimuthal dependence of P‐to‐S scattering can have implications for explosion discrimination based on spectral ratios of seismic wave types, because the general assumption is that explosions do not generate shear‐wave energy. Synthetic tests modeling only larger‐scale geologic structure had lower transversely polarized energy (only four stations showing a transversely to radially polarized energy ratio greater than 1) and fewer stations (<10) displaying shorter (<300 m) mean free paths than what was observed in the DAG data results.

Darrh, Andréa Nicole↗

Using Ensemble Data Assimilation to Estimate Transient Hydrologic Exchange Flow Under Highly Dynamic Flow Conditions

Abstract Quantifying dynamic hydrologic exchange flows (HEFs) within river corridors that experience high‐frequency flow variations caused by dam regulations is important for understanding the biogeochemical processes at the river water and groundwater interfaces. Heat has been widely used as a tracer to infer steady‐state flow velocities through analytical solutions of heat transport defined by the diurnal temperature signals. Under sub‐daily dynamic flow conditions, however, such analytical solutions are not applicable due to the violation of their fundamental assumptions. In this study, we developed a data assimilation‐based approach to estimate the sub‐daily flux under highly dynamic flow conditions using multi‐depth temperature observations at a 5‐min resolution. If the hydraulic gradient is measured, Darcy's law was used to calculate the flux with permeability estimated from temperature responses below the riverbed. Otherwise, flux was estimated directly by assimilating multi‐depth temperature data at 1‐ or 2‐hr time intervals assuming one‐dimensional flow and heat transport governing equation. By comparing estimated fluxes with model‐generated synthetic truth, we demonstrated that both schemes have robust performance in estimating fluxes under highly dynamic flow conditions. This data assimilation‐based flux estimation method was able to capture the vertical sub‐daily fluxes using multi‐depth high‐resolution temperature data alone, even in the presence of multi‐dimensional flow. This approach has been successfully applied to real field temperature data collected at the Hanford site, which experiences highly dynamic HEFs. Our study shows the promise of adopting distributed 1‐D temperature monitoring to capture spatial and temporal exchange dynamics in river corridors at a watershed scale or beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Inferring microbial co-occurrence networks from amplicon data: a systematic evaluation

Microbes commonly organize into communities consisting of hundreds of species involved in complex interactions with each other. 16S ribosomal RNA (16S rRNA) amplicon profiling provides snapshots that reveal the phylogenies and abundance profiles of these microbial communities. These snapshots, when collected from multiple samples, can reveal the co-occurrence of microbes, providing a glimpse into the network of associations in these communities. However, the inference of networks from 16S data involves numerous steps, each requiring specific tools and parameter choices. Moreover, the extent to which these steps affect the final network is still unclear. In this study, we perform a meticulous analysis of each step of a pipeline that can convert 16S sequencing data into a network of microbial associations. Through this process, we map how different choices of algorithms and parameters affect the co-occurrence network and identify the steps that contribute substantially to the variance. We further determine the tools and parameters that generate robust co-occurrence networks and develop consensus network algorithms based on benchmarks with mock and synthetic data sets. The Microbial Co-occurrence Network Explorer, or MiCoNE (available at https://github.com/segrelab/MiCoNE) follows these default tools and parameters and can help explore the outcome of these combinations of choices on the inferred networks. We envisage that this pipeline could be used for integrating multiple data sets and generating comparative analyses and consensus networks that can guide our understanding of microbial community assembly in different biomes.

16S rRNA↗

DMTN-277: The Monster: A reference catalog with synthetic ugrizy-band fluxes for the Vera C. Rubin observatory

In order to facilitate bootstrap photometric calibrations of early Rubin Observatory data we have created an all sky reference catalog called The Monster. This reference catalog uses a rank-ordered set of other reference catalogs to generate synthetic ugrizy-band fluxes that can be used calibrate images processed with the LSST science pipelines. This document describes the methodology used to create The Monster, documents the input external reference catalogs, and performs basic data validation of the first version of The Monster.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Realistic galaxy image simulation via score-based generative models

ABSTRACT We show that a denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM), a class of score-based generative model, can be used to produce realistic mock images that mimic observations of galaxies. Our method is tested with Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) grz imaging of galaxies from the Photometry and Rotation curve OBservations from Extragalactic Surveys (PROBES) sample and galaxies selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. Subjectively, the generated galaxies are highly realistic when compared with samples from the real data set. We quantify the similarity by borrowing from the deep generative learning literature, using the ‘Fréchet inception distance’ to test for subjective and morphological similarity. We also introduce the ‘synthetic galaxy distance’ metric to compare the emergent physical properties (such as total magnitude, colour, and half-light radius) of a ground truth parent and synthesized child data set. We argue that the DDPM approach produces sharper and more realistic images than other generative methods such as adversarial networks (with the downside of more costly inference), and could be used to produce large samples of synthetic observations tailored to a specific imaging survey. We demonstrate two potential uses of the DDPM: (1) accurate inpainting of occluded data, such as satellite trails, and (2) domain transfer, where new input images can be processed to mimic the properties of the DDPM training set. Here we ‘DESI-fy’ cartoon images as a proof of concept for domain transfer. Finally, we suggest potential applications for score-based approaches that could motivate further research on this topic within the astronomical community.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Physics-Informed Recurrent Neural Networks to Predict Reactor Operations of the AGN-201 Nuclear Reactor

4 page paper submitted to ANS Student conference. Summary of paper similar to the following abstract: The ability to predict how a reactor will operate, understand when anomalous conditions arise, and ensure a reactor is being operated as expected is crucial for deploying new nuclear facilities. Digital twins serve as a unique solution to recognizing reactor behavior; however, they require data to be useful. For next-generation reactors, this data may not currently be available. To explore how synthetic physics-informed reactor data can be used to predict reactor operations, a recurrent neural network was implemented for the Idaho State University AGN-201 digital twin. The goal of this work is to determine how synthetic data can be used to train a recurrent neural network model for predicting the reactor power of the AGN-201. The recurrent neural network was validated using both synthetic and real operational data. We envision this approach will help bridge the gap between the virtual and physical sides of a digital twin, where reactor physics models based on as-built data can be corrected for actual operating parameters to ensure the virtual model mirrors reality.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

G-Mapper: Learning a Cover in the Mapper Construction

The Mapper algorithm is a visualization technique in topological data analysis (TDA) that outputs a graph reflecting the structure of a given dataset. However, the Mapper algorithm requires tuning several parameters in order to generate a “nice” Mapper graph. This paper focuses on selecting the cover parameter. We present an algorithm that optimizes the cover of a Mapper graph by splitting a cover repeatedly according to a statistical test for normality. Our algorithm is based on G-means clustering, which searches for the optimal number of clusters in 𝑘-means by iteratively applying the Anderson–Darling test. Our splitting procedure employs a Gaussian mixture model to carefully choose the cover according to the distribution of the given data. In conclusion, experiments for synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our algorithm generates covers so that the Mapper graphs retain the essence of the datasets, while also running significantly faster than a previous iterative method.

G-means clustering↗

Volumetric analysis and mesh generation of real and artificial microstructural geometries

Producing a viable finite element mesh of realistic microstructural structural geometry is a critical step in analyzing the thermo-mechanical behavior of complex multi-material composites. Advancements in imaging technology such as micro computed tomography have allowed modelers to access high resolution mesoscale geometries for direct numerical simulation. However, converting from voxel based 3D images to usable finite element meshes has been challenging. A robust method including algorithms and software scripts for generating finite element meshes from 3D imaged microstructures is presented in this paper. It includes a routine for inserting cohesive elements around material interfaces to enable modeling of interface properties including delamination and damage. The algorithms and procedures presented in this method leverage currently available software packages for processing surface based geometry into volume based meshes. In addition to converting real geometry from physical imaging systems, algorithms for producing numerically generated and statistically equivalent microstructural geometry are also included. These artificial microstructures can be a valuable resource for modelers when physical specimens do not exist or are limited in quantity: Method establishes a workflow from voxel data to viable finite element mesh including interface information, and Includes a method for synthetic geometry generation based on metrics from real microstructures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Deep learning-based segmentation of lithium-ion battery microstructures enhanced by artificially generated electrodes

Accurate 3D representations of lithium-ion battery electrodes, in which the active particles, binder and pore phases are distinguished and labeled, can assist in understanding and ultimately improving battery performance. Here, we demonstrate a methodology for using deep-learning tools to achieve reliable segmentations of volumetric images of electrodes on which standard segmentation approaches fail due to insufficient contrast. We implement the 3D U-Net architecture for segmentation, and, to overcome the limitations of training data obtained experimentally through imaging, we show how synthetic learning data, consisting of realistic artificial electrode structures and their tomographic reconstructions, can be generated and used to enhance network performance. We apply our method to segment x-ray tomographic microscopy images of graphite-silicon composite electrodes and show it is accurate across standard metrics. We then apply it to obtain a statistically meaningful analysis of the microstructural evolution of the carbon-black and binder domain during battery operation.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Probabilistic estimation of depth-resolved profiles of soil thermal diffusivity from temperature time series: Supporting Data

This dataset consists of soil temperature time series that were used to estimate soil thermal diffusivity and its uncertainty trough the probabilistic modelling approach developed and presented in the article named "Probabilistic estimation of depth-resolved profiles of soil thermal diffusivity from temperature time series" and published in Earth Surface Dynamics. There are two compressed (.zip) files that contains synthetic (Synthetic_soiltemp_Teller.zip) and field (Field_soiltemp_Teller.zip) data. There is one MATLAB file that requires MATLAB to execute but any text editor can open it. The Synthetic_soiltemp_Teller.zip file includes 5 comma-delimited data files (.csv) each of which contains soil temperature time series generated through forward modeling (i.e., heat-conduction process in a heterogeneous medium using an explicit finite difference method) to mimic various types of temperature gradients, trend and fluctuations. These synthetic soil temperatures were used to investigate the impact of different environmental conditions on the uncertainty of thermal diffusivity estimates. The Field_soiltemp_Teller.zip file contains 28 comma-delimited data files (.csv) out of which (a) 27 files includes soil temperature time series recorded from 27 temperature probes located in a site along Teller Road about 40 km northwest of Nome, Alaska (64.72°N, 165.94°W), (b) one includes the name and coordinates of the 27 probes. These field soil temperatures were used to infer soil thermal diffusivity at numerous locations and depths in a discontinuous permafrost environment, and to evaluate the links between the estimated soil thermal diffusivity values and soil physical properties. The comma-delimited data files (.csv) of the synthetic and field soil temperature time series includes date and time (UTC) in the first column and soil temperature from 5 cm below the ground surface to 1.05 m depth (with 5 or 10 cm spacing between sensors) in the other columns. The measurements were acquired every 15 minutes. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stochastic Simulation of Daily Suspended Sediment Concentration Using Multivariate Copulas

Estimation of daily suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is required for water resources and environment management. In this paper, a copula-based stochastic method was proposed for daily SSC simulation. Here, the multivariate copula function, constructed based on a bivariate copula and two bivariate conditional probability distributions, was used to model the temporal and cross dependence structures in daily SSCs. Then, the daily SSCs were generated by sampling from the multivariate conditional distribution. As a result, synthetic long-term SSCs data beyond the limited observation period can be provided for water resources managers, which plays a critical role in accurately estimating frequency and magnitude of extreme SSCs events. The proposed method was under rigorous examination by applying to a case study at Pingshan station in the Jinsha River Basin, China. Results showed that the generated daily SSC sequences not only had a high degree of accuracy in preserving the statistical characteristics of the daily SSC observations, but also captured both the temporal correlation and the cross-correlation between the daily streamflow and daily SSC. Specifically, the average daily relative error values corresponding to mean, standard deviation, skewness, lag-1 temporal correlation, and cross correlation were 0.87%, 4.24%, 7.52%, 0.51% and 2.02%, respectively. The multivariate copula framework proposed here can accurately and efficiently generate long-term daily SSC data for water resources management such as frequency analysis and risk assessment of extreme SSC events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhancing power grid resilience to winter storms via generator winterization with equity considerations

Here we develop two-stage stochastic programming models for generator winterization that enhance power grid resilience while incorporating social equity. The first stage in our models captures the investment decisions for generator winterization, and the second stage captures the operation of a degraded power grid, with the objective of minimizing load shed and social inequity. To incorporate equity into our models, we propose a concept called adverse effect probability that captures the disproportionate effects of power outages on communities with varying vulnerability levels. Grid operations are modeled using DC power flow, and equity is captured through mean or maximum adverse effects experienced by communities. We apply our models to a synthetic Texas power grid, using winter storm scenarios created from the generator outage data from the 2021 Texas winter storm. Our extensive numerical experiments show that more equitable outcomes, in the sense of reducing adverse effects experienced by vulnerable communities during power outages, are achievable with no impact on total load shed through investing in winterization of generators in different locations and capacities.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Recent advances and applications of deep learning methods in materials science

Deep learning (DL) is one of the fastest-growing topics in materials data science, with rapidly emerging applications spanning atomistic, image-based, spectral, and textual data modalities. DL allows analysis of unstructured data and automated identification of features. The recent development of large materials databases has fueled the application of DL methods in atomistic prediction in particular. In contrast, advances in image and spectral data have largely leveraged synthetic data enabled by high-quality forward models as well as by generative unsupervised DL methods. In this article, we present a high-level overview of deep learning methods followed by a detailed discussion of recent developments of deep learning in atomistic simulation, materials imaging, spectral analysis, and natural language processing. For each modality we discuss applications involving both theoretical and experimental data, typical modeling approaches with their strengths and limitations, and relevant publicly available software and datasets. We conclude the review with a discussion of recent cross-cutting work related to uncertainty quantification in this field and a brief perspective on limitations, challenges, and potential growth areas for DL methods in materials science.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Coastal Carbon Library and Atlas: Open source soil data and tools supporting blue carbon research and policy

Abstract Quantifying carbon fluxes into and out of coastal soils is critical to meeting greenhouse gas reduction and coastal resiliency goals. Numerous ‘blue carbon’ studies have generated, or benefitted from, synthetic datasets. However, the community those efforts inspired does not have a centralized, standardized database of disaggregated data used to estimate carbon stocks and fluxes. In this paper, we describe a data structure designed to standardize data reporting, maximize reuse, and maintain a chain of credit from synthesis to original source. We introduce version 1.0.0. of the Coastal Carbon Library, a global database of 6723 soil profiles representing blue carbon‐storing systems including marshes, mangroves, tidal freshwater forests, and seagrasses. We also present the Coastal Carbon Atlas, an R‐shiny application that can be used to visualize, query, and download portions of the Coastal Carbon Library. The majority (4815) of entries in the database can be used for carbon stock assessments without the need for interpolating missing soil variables, 533 are available for estimating carbon burial rate, and 326 are useful for fitting dynamic soil formation models. Organic matter density significantly varied by habitat with tidal freshwater forests having the highest density, and seagrasses having the lowest. Future work could involve expansion of the synthesis to include more deep stock assessments, increasing the representation of data outside of the U.S., and increasing the amount of data available for mangroves and seagrasses, especially carbon burial rate data. We present proposed best practices for blue carbon data including an emphasis on disaggregation, data publication, dataset documentation, and use of standardized vocabulary and templates whenever appropriate. To conclude, the Coastal Carbon Library and Atlas serve as a general example of a grassroots F.A.I.R. (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) data effort demonstrating how data producers can coordinate to develop tools relevant to policy and decision‐making.

Holmquist, James R.↗

Making Invisible Visible: Data-Driven Seismic Inversion With Spatio-Temporally Constrained Data Augmentation

Deep learning and data-driven approaches have shown great potential in scientific domains. The promise of data-driven techniques relies on the availability of a large volume of high-quality training datasets. Due to the high cost of obtaining data through expensive physical experiments, instruments, and simulations, data augmentation techniques for scientific applications have emerged as a new direction for obtaining scientific data recently. However, existing data augmentation techniques originating from computer vision yield physically unacceptable data samples that are not helpful for the domain problems that we are interested in. In this article, we develop new data augmentation techniques based on convolutional neural networks. Specifically, our generative models leverage different physics knowledge (such as governing equations, observable perception, and physics phenomena) to improve the quality of the synthetic data. To validate the effectiveness of our data augmentation techniques, we apply them to solve a subsurface seismic full-waveform inversion using simulated CO 2 leakage data. Our interest is to invert for subsurface velocity models associated with very small CO 2 leakage. We validate the performance of our methods using comprehensive numerical tests. Here via comparison and analysis, we show that data-driven seismic imaging can be significantly enhanced by using our data augmentation techniques. Particularly, the imaging quality has been improved by 15% in test scenarios of general-sized leakage and 17% in small-sized leakage when using an augmented training set obtained with our techniques.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗