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At least 217 records · Page 12

Recent Accelerated Decadal Shift in Winter North American Temperature Patterns Under Pacific‐Atlantic Decadal Variability

Global warming and internal climate variability have changed winter temperature extreme regimes in North America, affecting droughts and wildfires in the western United States. However, how internal climate variability influences North American winter temperature extreme patterns remains poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate that the recent winter North American surface air temperature (SAT) exhibits an accelerated decadal alternation between Warm West-Cold East (WWCE) and Cold West-Warm East (CWWE) dipoles because their variations show shorter decadal periods during 1990–2022 than during 1950–1989 and are regulated by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) variability. While the winter WWCE dipole mainly linked to North Pacific blocking events exhibited a smaller mean amplitude during 1990–2022 than 1950–1989 due to the weakened positive PDO phase during 1990–2022 under the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the winter CWWE showed a larger mean amplitude during 1990–2022 due to the stronger negative PDO phase than during 1950–1989. Our results further suggest that the recent rapid decadal shift of North American winter temperatures is primarily attributed to the PDO variability likely due to anthropogenic warming under the positive AMO.

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation↗

Sensitivity of mesoscale modeling to urban morphological feature inputs and implications for characterizing urban sustainability

We examine the differences in meteorological output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run at 270 m horizontal resolution using 10 m, 100 m and 1 km resolution 3D neighborhood morphological inputs and with no morphological inputs. We find that the spatial variability in temperature, humidity, and other meteorological variables across the city can vary with the resolution and the coverage of the 3D urban morphological input, and that larger differences occur between simulations run without 3D morphological input and those run with some type of 3D morphology. We also find that the inclusion of input-building-defined roughness length calculations would improve simulation results further. We show that these inputs produce different patterns of heat wave spatial heterogeneity across the city of Washington, DC. These findings suggest that understanding neighborhood level urban sustainability under extreme heat waves, especially for vulnerable neighborhoods, requires attention to the representation of surface terrain in numerical weather models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Fast Algebraic Multigrid Solver and Accurate Discretization for Highly Anisotropic Heat Flux I: Open Field Lines

We present a novel solver technique for the anisotropic heat flux equation, aimed at the high level of anisotropy seen in magnetic confinement fusion plasmas. Such problems pose two major challenges: (i) discretization accuracy and (ii) efficient implicit linear solvers. We simultaneously address each of these challenges by constructing a new finite element discretization with excellent accuracy properties, tailored to a novel solver approach based on algebraic multigrid (AMG) methods designed for advective operators. We pose the problem in a mixed formulation, introducing the directional temperature gradient as an auxiliary variable. The temperature and auxiliary fields are discretized in a scalar discontinuous Galerkin space with upwinding principles used for discretizations of advection. We demonstrate the proposed discretization’s superior accuracy over other discretizations of anisotropic heat flux, achieving error 1000x smaller for anisotropy ratio of 10 9 , for closed field lines. The block matrix system is reordered and solved in an approach where the two advection operators are inverted using AMG solvers based on approximate ideal restriction, which is particularly efficient for upwind discontinuous Galerkin discretizations of advection. To ensure that the advection operators are nonsingular, in this paper we restrict ourselves to considering open (acyclic) magnetic field lines for the linear solvers. We demonstrate fast convergence of the proposed iterative solver in highly anisotropic regimes where other diffusion-based AMG methods fail.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Interactions Between Climate Mean and Variability Drive Future Agroecosystem Vulnerability

ABSTRACT Agriculture is crucial for global food supply and dominates the Earth's land surface. It is unknown, however, how slow but relentless changes in climate mean state, versus random extreme conditions arising from changing variability , will affect agroecosystems' carbon fluxes, energy fluxes, and crop production. We used an advanced weather generator to partition changes in mean climate state versus variability for both temperature and precipitation, producing forcing data to drive factorial‐design simulations of US Midwest agricultural regions in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. We found that an increase in temperature mean lowers stored carbon, plant productivity, and crop yield, and tends to convert agroecosystems from a carbon sink to a source, as expected; it also can cause local to regional cooling in the earth system model through its effects on the Bowen Ratio. The combined effect of mean and variability changes on carbon fluxes and pools was nonlinear, that is, greater than each individual case. For instance, gross primary production reduces by 9%, 1%, and 13% due to change in mean temperature, change in temperature variability, and change in both temperature mean and variability, respectively. Overall, the scenario with change in both temperature and precipitation means leads to the largest reduction in carbon fluxes (−16% gross primary production), carbon pools (−35% vegetation carbon), and crop yields (−33% and −22% median reduction in yield for corn and soybean, respectively). By unambiguously parsing the effects of changing climate mean versus variability and quantifying their nonadditive impacts, this study lays a foundation for more robust understanding and prediction of agroecosystems' vulnerability to 21st‐century climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pre-Symptomatic COVID Screening

Temperature checks for fever are extensively used for preliminary COVID screenings but are ineffective during the incubation stage of infection when a person is asymptotic. Researchers at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control concluded that approximately 75% of passengers infected with COVID-19 and traveling from affected Chinese cities would not be detected by early screening. Core body temperature is normally kept within a narrow range and has the smallest relative standard deviation of all vital signs. Heat in the body is prioritized around internal organs at the expense of the periphery by controlling blood flow. In fact, blood flow to the skin may vary by a factor of 100 depending on thermal conditions. This adaptation causes rapid temperature fluctuations in different skin regions from changes in cardiac output, metabolism, and likely cytokine diffusion during inflammation that would not be seen in average core body temperature. Current IR and thermal scanners used for temperature checks are not necessarily reflective of core body temperatures and require cautious interpretation as they frequently result in false positive and false negative diagnosis. Hand held thermometers measure average skin temperatures and can get readings that differ from core body temperature by as much as 7°. Rather than focusing on a core body temperature threshold assessment we believe that variability of temperature patterns using a novel wearable transdermal microneedle sensor will be more sensitive to infections in the incubation stage and propose to develop a wearable transdermal temperature sensor using established Sandia microneedle technology for pre-symptomatic COVID screening that can additionally be used to monitor disease progression at later stages.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Pre Symptomatic COVID Screening

Temperature checks for fever are extensively used for preliminary COVID screenings but are ineffective during the incubation stage of infection when a person is asymptotic. Researchers at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control concluded that approximately 75% of passengers infected with COVID-19 and traveling from affected Chinese cities would not be detected by early screening. Core body temperature is normally kept within a narrow range and has the smallest relative standard deviation of all vital signs. Heat in the body is prioritized around internal organs at the expense of the periphery by controlling blood flow. In fact, blood flow to the skin may vary by a factor of 100 depending on thermal conditions. This adaptation causes rapid temperature fluctuations in different skin regions from changes in cardiac output, metabolism, and likely cytokine diffusion during inflammation that would not be seen in average core body temperature. Current IR and thermal scanners used for temperature checks are not necessarily reflective of core body temperatures and require cautious interpretation as they frequently result in false positive and false negative diagnosis. Hand held thermometers measure average skin temperatures and can get readings that differ from core body temperature by as much as 7°. Rather than focusing on a core body temperature threshold assessment we believe that variability of temperature patterns using a novel wearable transdermal microneedle sensor will be more sensitive to infections in the incubation stage and propose to develop a wearable transdermal temperature sensor using established Sandia microneedle technology for pre symptomatic COVID screening that can additionally be used to monitor disease progression at later stages.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Meteorological and Soil Data from Ecohydrology Sensor Towers at Pump House and Snodgrass Mountain in East River Watershed, Colorado, 2019-2025

This data package includes hourly meteorological and soil sensor data at eight ecohydrology monitoring sites in East River Watershed, Colorado as part of the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (WFSFA) research led by Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (LBNL). Four field sites were located on the hillslope of East River (ER) near Pump House (PH) at Mount Crested Butte (ER-PHS1 to 4), and the other four are in the Snodgrass Mountain (SG) area (SG-EHS5 to 8). In terms of vegetation cover, three sites are in montane grasslands (ER-PHS1, ER-PHS2, and SG-EHS5), three are below evergreen conifer canopy (ER-PHS3, SG-EHS6, and SG-EHS7), and two are below deciduous aspen canopy (ER-PHS4 and SG-EHS8). The monitoring period began in October 2019 at the East River sites, in October 2020 at SG-EHS5 and SG-EHS6, and in October 2021 at SG-EHS7 and SG-EHS8. In September 2024, all four East River sites were fully retired. The four Snodgrass Mountain sites remain active. Each site is equipped with a comprehensive suite of meteorological sensors on a tripod and soil sensors that measure weather, energy fluxes, and soil variables. This data package includes measurements from ten different types of sensors and up to thirteen individual sensors per site, including (1) a weather station (measurement height ranges from 2.8~3.8 meters (m) above ground), (2) a quantum sensor for photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) (2.4~3.3m), (3) a net radiometer (1.7~2.1m), (4) an infrared radiometer (1.6~2.2m), (5) a sonic distance sensor (1.5~1.9m), (6) a soil carbon dioxide (CO2) flux chamber (0m), (7) a soil heat flux plate (-0.05m below ground), (8) a soil oxygen sensor (-0.3m), (9) a soil water potential sensor (-0.3m), and (10) soil water content sensors at 3~4 depths (-1.15 ~ -0.1m). A total of twenty-three variables is reported in this data package, including (1) atmospheric variables: air temperature (TA), atmospheric pressure (PA), vapor pressure (VP), and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), (2) precipitation variables: rain precipitation (P) and snow depth (D_SNOW), (3) energy fluxes variables: four-component net radiation (NETRAD) (shortwave/longwave incoming/outgoing radiation, SW_IN, SW_OUT, LW_IN, LW_OUT), photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD), and soil heat flux (G), (4) soil variables: soil water content (SWC), soil water potential (SWP), soil temperature (TS), soil bulk electrical conductivity (COND_SOIL), and soil gaseous oxygen concentration (O2_SOIL), (5) wind variables: two-dimensional wind speed (WS), gust speed (WS_MAX), and wind direction (WD), and (6) surface variables: surface infrared temperature (T_CANOPY) and soil CO2 flux (CO2_SOIL). Please see the Methods section for data processing and QA/QC steps taken to generate the hourly datasets. The following files are included in this data package (notes on version: v{x}-{y}, where x is the metadata version, and y is the data version, when applicable): (1) “metadata_site_v{x}-{y}.csv” - a site metadata file that summarizes location information of all sites, including site ID, description, coordinates, timeframe, elevation, and vegetation cover, (2) “metadata_instrument_v{x}-{y}.csv” - an instrument metadata file that summarizes sensor information of all sites, including sensor manufacturer and model, measurement height, and sampling and averaging interval of all variables, (3) "data_{SITE_ID}_v{x}-{y}.csv" - eight data files that contain hourly data of each site indicated by {SITE_ID} in the filename, (4) “/figure/data_{SITE_ID}_v{x}-{y}.png" - eight figures that help visualize data of each site indicated by {SITE_ID} in the filename, (5) “/photo/*” - photos of each site indicated by {SITE_ID} in the filename, and (6) four file level metadata (flmd.csv) and data dictionary (*_dd.csv) files that summarize file, header, column, and variable information of all files. Notes: (1) Measurement height: Each variable name is followed by conventional positional qualifiers “H_V_R”, where H indicates the relative horizontal positions of that specific variable, V the vertical positions, and R the replicates. In this data package, only the vertical qualifier V varies, and V increases from the highest vertical position (V=1) to the lowest. Variables with the same qualifier are not necessarily measured by the same sensor, and the same variable with the same qualifier across different sites are not necessarily measured at the same height. Please refer to “metadata_instrument.csv” for the sensor information and measurement heights, and whether a variable is measured below the canopy. (2) Variable availability: Snow depth is not available at ER-PHS3 and SG-EHS7. SWC, soil temperature, and soil bulk EC at the deepest depth (<-1m) are not available at SG-EHS6 and SG-EHS7. The missing value code for numeric variables is -9999, except for SWP. For SWP, the missing value code is +9999, because SWP values are negative. (3) Sampling frequency: Please refer to “metadata_instrument.csv” for the increase of sampling frequency of some variables from 30-min to 1-min at ER-PHS1 to 4 in July 2020. (4) Sensors: While the methods of each sensor are not detailed, all sensors are commercially available, and their methods can be found in their manuals. Please refer to “metadata_instrument.csv” for the sensor manufacturer and model information. This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Signatures of Biologically Driven Hemicellulose Modification Quantified by Analytical Pyrolysis Coupled with Multidimensional Gas Chromatography Mass Spectrometry

Biomass storage operation is one major source of feedstock quality variability that impacts on downstream preprocessing, feeding, handling and conversion into biofuels, chemicals and products. In field Ccorn stover biomass bales undergoes degradation and cell wall components modification resulting from microbial biological heating occurring during storage. A molecular characterization of the modification was achieved to unveil and understand the changes of structural cell wall modification in corn stover samples by conducting low temperature (400°C) pyrolysis, comparing samples that were mildly biologicallyun heated to those that had been subjected to microbial severe biological heating (~60°C). Pyrolysis of the samples originating from biomass that had been heated during storage generated small oxygenates such as furfural, 5-methylfurfural and 2-(5H)-furanone with efficiencies that were as much as ten times greater than those measured for the mildly unheated samples. Most of the compounds having enhanced efficiencies were C5 oxygenates, suggesting that the pyrolysis products may be formed from hemicellulosic precursor polymers in the corn stover. The findings suggest that microbial heating may be disrupting the cell wall structure, fragmenting the hemicellulose or cellulose chains, generating more polymer termini that have higher efficiency for generating the oxygenates at lower temperatures. Pyrolysis variability with temperature may be a beneficial strategy for improved biomass cell wall characterization, and for guiding control strategies for enhanced control over product distributions , providing insights to understand and manage the feedstock variability as well as to inform harvest and storage best management practices.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Controls and variability of soil respiration temperature sensitivity across China

Understanding the temperature sensitivity (Q 10 ) of soil respiration is critical for benchmarking the potential intensity of regional and global terrestrial soil carbon fluxes-climate feedbacks. Although field observations have demonstrated the strong spatial heterogeneity of Q 10 , a significant knowledge gap still exists regarding to the factors driving spatial and temporal variabilities of Q 10 at regional scales. Here, therefore, we used a machine learning approach to predict Q 10 from 1994 to 2016 with a spatial resolution of 1 km across China from 515 field observations at 5 cm soil depth using climate, soil and vegetation variables. Predicted Q 10 varied from 1.54 to 4.17, with an area-weighted average of 2.52. There was no significant temporal trend for Q 10 (p = 0.32), but annual vegetation production (indicated by normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) was positively correlated to it (p < 0.01). Spatially, soil organic carbon (SOC) was the most important driving factor in 62 % of the land area across China, and varied greatly, demonstrating soil controls on the spatial pattern of Q 10 . These findings highlighted different environmental controls on the spatial and temporal pattern of soil respiration Q 10 , which should be considered to improve global biogeochemical models used to predict the spatial and temporal patterns of soil carbon fluxes to ongoing climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The underappreciated importance of solar radiation in constraining spring phenology of temperate ecosystems in the Northern and Eastern United States

Spring phenology of temperate ecosystems is highly sensitive to climate change, generating various impacts on many important terrestrial surface biophysical processes. Although various prognostic models relying on environmental variables of temperature and photoperiod have been developed for spring phenology, comprehensive ecosystem-scale evaluations over large landscapes and long-time periods remain lacking. Further, environmental variables other than temperature and photoperiod might also importantly constrain spring phenology modelling but remain under-investigation. To address these issues, we leveraged around 20-years datasets of environmental variables (from Daymet and GLDAS products) and the spring phenology metric (i.e., the greenup date) respectively derived from MODIS and PhenoCams across 108 sites in the Northern and Eastern United States. We firstly cross-compared MODIS-derived greenup date with official PhenoCams product with high accuracy (R 2 = 0.70). Then, we evaluated the three prognostic models (i.e., Growing Degree Date (GDD), Sequential (SEQ) and optimality-based (OPT)) with MODIS-derived spring phenology, assessed the model residuals and their associations with soil moisture, rainfall, and solar radiation, and revised the two photoperiod-relevant models (SEQ, OPT) by replacing the daylength variable with solar radiation, which was found to contribute the most to model residuals. We found that 1) all models demonstrated good capability in characterizing spring phenology, with OPT performing the best (RMSE = 8.04 ± 5.05 days), followed by SEQ (RMSE = 10.57 ± 7.77 days) and GDD (RMSE = 10.84 ± 8.42 days), 2) all models displayed high model residuals showing tight correlation with solar radiation (r = 0.45–0.75), and 3) the revised models that included solar radiation significantly performed better with an RMSE reduction by 22.08%. Such results are likely because solar radiation better constrains early growing season plant photosynthesis than photoperiod, supporting the hypothesis of spring phenology as an adaptive strategy to maximize photosynthetic carbon gain (approximated by solar radiation) while minimizing frost damage risk (captured by temperature). Collectively, our study here reveals the underappreciated importance of solar radiation in constraining spring phenology of temperate ecosystems, and suggests ways to improve spring phenology modelling and other phenology-related ecological processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Engineering design of a kW-scale continuous reactor-heat exchanger for high temperature discharge of particle-based thermochemical energy storage

This study investigates the theoretical design parameters and thermal performance of a kW-scale continuous oxidation reactor for high temperature (~1000 °C) thermochemical energy storage (TCES) applications. The concept comprises a counter-current particle-based system that includes a reaction zone with a heat exchanger to extract the heat produced from the oxidation reaction. Both above and below the hot reactive volume are sensible heat recuperation zones to enable the feed and removal of particles and oxidizing gas near ambient temperature during steady state operation. Two operation types for the reaction zone are studied, a fluidized bed reactor (FBR) and a moving bed reactor (MBR). The results of the parametric analysis suggest that the MBR requires a smaller volume per kW of heat produced, achieving power densities in excess of 2500 kW/m3 compared to ~ 900 kW/m 3 in the FBR. Additionally, the MBR achieves between 0.71 and 0.99 oxidation conversions compared to between 0.23 and 0.38 conversions in the FBR with the same volumes and flowrates. However, the FBR has the potential to maintain a uniform reactor temperature which can produce heat transfer fluid (HTF) outlet temperatures as high as the reactor temperature, i.e., ~1000 °C, whereas the MBR produces variable reactor temperatures that can create overheating zones and low HTF outlet temperatures (< 800 °C) depending on the operating conditions selected. Future work should aim at understanding the coupled fluid dynamics, heat and mass transfer, and thermochemical reaction for any given combination of reactor volume and contacting patterns. Here, these studies should be complemented by experimental work on particle-gas TCES reactors.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Informing Robust Functional Relationship Benchmarks: An Evaluation of the Temperature Sensitivity of Ecosystem Respiration Across the Arctic-Boreal Region

During land model development, simulated carbon dynamics are often benchmarked against observational data sets to evaluate model performance. Functional relationship benchmarks are the relationship between a driving variable (e.g., temperature) and a response variable (e.g., ecosystem respiration) and are a promising tool for assessing model performance by evaluating modeled sensitivities to changing environmental conditions. However, observed functional relationships can be influenced by choices made during data collection and throughout the benchmarking process, impacting the inferred skill of land models. To avoid misrepresenting a model's true performance, it is necessary to systematically evaluate best practices when constructing functional relationship benchmarks. We developed a set of guidelines for constructing functional relationship benchmarks, considering the choice of data set, number of daily observations, temporal extent, and temporal resolution across Alaska and Canada over a 20-year period from 2001 to 2020. The temperature sensitivity of ecosystem respiration from observations, evaluated through an apparent Q 10 , is highly variable both spatially and as a result of the data processing approach applied in the benchmark formation. When benchmarking 13 models from the Warming Permafrost Model Intercomparison Project (WrPMIP), the range in inferred model skill is substantially impacted by the choices applied in constructing functional relationship benchmarks. The inferred performance of a given model is most sensitive to the number of daily observations and temporal extent, followed by choice of benchmark data set and temporal averaging. Results from this analysis can guide the development of consistent and robust functional relationships for future model evaluation studies.

Poe, Jeralyn [Northern Arizona University, Flagsta↗

Preliminary Development of Heat Transfer Model-Based Control Algorithms of Liquid Sodium Purification System: Advanced Sensors and Instrumentation Advanced Controls

Monitoring the operation of sodium purification system is essential for efficient operation of sodium fast reactors. In this work, a heat transfer model has been developed for monitoring the plugging meter and cold trap systems at the Mechanisms Engineering Test Loop (METL) liquid sodium facility at Argonne National Laboratory. The model of the purification system was developed by treating the respective aspects of the cold trap purification loop and plugging meter diagnostic loop as two separate control volumes using information from the METL piping and instrumentation diagram (P&ID). A model predictive controller was designed using first order differential equations with the specified boundary conditions. The system behavior was studied with a tuned optimized procedure using the internal cold trap temperature and plugging meter outlet temperature as control variables, and the air blower temperature as an independent variable respectively. Results of computer simulations obtained in this study compared favorably with experimental data showing very good reference tracking response with negligible overshoot as both plugging meter and cold trap physical models approach the setpoint.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Ion-Selective Scattering Studied Using the Variable-Energy Electron Irradiation in the Ba 0.2 K 0.8 Fe 2 As 2 Superconductor

Low-temperature variable-energy electron irradiation was used to induce non-magnetic disorder in a single crystal of a hole-doped iron-based superconductor, Ba $1-x$ K $x$ Fe 2 As 2 , $x$ = 0.80. To avoid systematic errors, the beam energy was adjusted non-consequently for five values between 1.0 and 2.5 MeV when sample resistance was measured in situ at 22 K. For all energies, the resistivity raises linearly with the irradiation fluence suggesting the creation of uncorrelated dilute point-like disorder (confirmed by simulations). The rate of the resistivity increase peaks at energies below 1.5 MeV. Comparison with calculated partial cross-sections points to the predominant creation of defects in the iron sublattice. Simultaneously, superconducting $T_c$, measured separately between the irradiation runs, is monotonically suppressed as expected, since it depends on the total scattering rate, hence on the total cross-section, which is a monotonically increasing function of the energy. Our work experimentally confirms an often-made assumption of the dominant role of the iron sub-lattice in iron-based superconductors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Elastic thermobarometry on metapelites across the crustal section of the Famatinian Arc, Argentina

We applied elastic thermobarometry on garnet-bearing migmatites along two transects through the crustal section at Sierra Valle Fértil-La Huerta, Argentina. We performed quartz-in-garnet barometry and zircon-in-garnet thermometry on metapelites from different paleo-depths across the crustal section. Our work recovers entrapment pressures ranging from 240 to 1330 MPa and entrapment temperatures between 691 and 1574 °C. The entrapment conditions are broadly consistent with anticipated pressures and temperatures along the crustal section derived previously using conventional, thermodynamic thermobarometers. The quartz-in-garnet barometer reproduces those conventionally established entrapment conditions when samples only experienced conditions within the alpha-quartz stability field. Raman-derived pressures for samples that experienced beta-quartz reference conditions are commonly much higher than those established by conventional barometry. Samples that preserve compressive (positive) residual pressures best reproduce reference entrapment pressures. Entrapment temperatures show high variability and overestimation of temperature conditions compared to conventional results. These results indicate elastic thermobarometry over- or under-estimates crystallization conditions in rocks crystallized at high temperatures, as is common in the Famatinian Arc deep-crust. We suggest that modeling quartz behavior across the alpha–beta transition may present challenges, as does shape maturation, viscous deformation, and radiation damage in zircon.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Scaling plant responses to high temperature from cell to ecosystem

Plant survival and productivity decrease with exposure to less favourable environments. The negative effects of environmental factors such as water-deficit and salinity stress on vegetation are relatively well studied, primarily due to the large losses in crop yield and forest biomass caused by these stresses. Although the impact of combined heat and drought on plants has received considerable interest in recent years due to climate change, there has been less focus on ascertaining the impact of heat stress alone at a range of temporal and spatial scales. The steady increase in global mean temperatures and (more importantly) variability in extreme temperatures is translating into more frequent and extreme heat stress episodes, which in turn reduce plant productivity. Further, projected increases in both day and night temperatures and the predicted impact of these changes on agricultural and forest productivity have drawn attention to the need to better address the direct effects of heat on plants. In particular, there has been tremendous interest in understanding the short- and long-term effects of heat at the cellular and whole-plant levels, including work on crops of agricultural importance and species from less managed ecosystems. Hence, we made a concerted effort in this Special Issue to capture recent progress in our ability to quantify the impact of heat stress, and identify new tools and approaches that have been developed and implemented to capture a wide range of responses in plants. The series of reviews and research articles presented here captures our current understanding of plant physiological and molecular responses to heat stress, as well as covering phenotyping methods, genetic diversity and potential routes through which plants can acclimate and adapt to warming climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of fiber-optic distributed temperature sensing and high-sensitivity sensor spatial surveying of stream temperature

Measuring surface water temperature spatial variability is needed to estimate the interaction between surface water and groundwater, evaluate fish habitat and thermal inertia, and to estimate streamflow frequency and duration. Fiber optic distributed temperature sensing (FO-DTS) has been used in rivers and lakes, providing high-resolution and sensitive temperature monitoring over large temporal and spatial scales. However, in streams with cobbly or bedrock-lined streambeds and variable bathymetry, use of FO-DTS to measure temperature close to the surface water and groundwater interface can be challenging if even feasible. FO-DTS can also be costly, involve difficult installations, and require an advanced understanding of the technology, calibration, and data processing. In this study, we compared FO-DTS stream temperature survey results to an alternative temperature survey method employing a towed transect of high-resolution temperature loggers spaced at 1-m and transported in the stream along the study reach, to measure the spatial distribution of stream-water temperature in East Fork Poplar Creek near Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA. We assessed the applicability and limitations of the two methods, and quantitatively compared in-situ temperature survey results measured simultaneously with each method. Regression results showed strong temporal and spatial correlation between the two methods. Differences were only elevated near the stream banks in areas that were coincident with correlation slope deviations from unity, which was attributed to shallower water and lower data density. Kriging standard errors were also low at channel center with minor increases near the stream banks. Furthermore, the results suggested that the array of the individual temperature sensors can provide a practical alternative to FO-DTS for thermal characterization of surface water, providing slightly lower spatial and temporal resolution, but with higher accuracy of temperature measurement, with greater simplicity, and with a broader range of conditions where it may be applied.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Intrinsic Century-Scale Variability in Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures and Their Influence on Western US Hydroclimate

Hydroclimate variability of the southwest United States (SWUS) is influenced by the tropical Pacific Ocean, particularly through the teleconnection to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is expected to be altered by climate change. Natural variability in this teleconnection has not been robustly quantified, complicating the detection of anthropogenic climate change. Here, we use a linear inverse model (LIM) to quantify natural variability in the ENSO-SWUS teleconnection. The LIM yields realistic teleconnection patterns with century-scale variability comparable to simulations from the Last Millennium Ensemble project and the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6. The variability quantified by the LIM illuminates two aspects of our understanding of ENSO and its impacts: the inherent statistics of the observable system can produce century-long periods with a wide range of correlations to SWUS hydroclimate, including nonsignificant correlations, and thus that detecting changes in ENSO-related hydroclimate variability is challenging in a changing climate.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗