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NASA NTRS2006

Effects of Rhenium Addition on the Temporal Evolution of the Nanostructure and Chemistry of a Model Ni-Cr-Al Superalloy: Experimental Observations - 1

The temporal evolution of the nanostructure and chemistry of a model Ni-8.5 at.% Cr-10 at. % Al alloy, with the addition of 2 at.% Re, aged at 1073 K from 0.25 to 264 h, was studied. Transmission electron microscopy and atom-probe tomography were used to measure the number density and mean radius of the gamma prime (L1(sub 2) structure)-precipitates and the chemistry of the gamma prime-precipitates and the gamma (face-centered cubic)-matrix, including the partitioning behavior of all alloying elements between the gamma- and gamma prime-phases and the segregation behavior at gamma/gamma prime interfaces. The precipitates remained spheroidal for an aging time of up to 264 h and, unlike commercial nickel-based superalloys containing Re, there was not confined (nonmonotonic) Re segregation at the gamma/gamma prime interfaces.

Yoon, Kevin E.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Capturing the interactions between ice sheets, sea level and the solid Earth on a range of timescales: a new “time window” algorithm

Retreat and advance of ice sheets perturb the gravitational field, solid surface and rotation of the Earth, leading to spatially variable sea-level changes over a range of timescales $\textit{O}$ (10 0–6 years), which in turn feed back onto ice-sheet dynamics. Coupled ice-sheet–sea-level models have been developed to capture the interactive processes between ice sheets, sea level and the solid Earth, but it is computationally challenging to capture short-term interactions $\textit{O}$ (10 0–2 years) precisely within longer $\textit{O}$ (10 3–6 years) simulations. The standard forward sea-level modelling algorithm assigns a uniform temporal resolution in the sea-level model, causing a quadratic increase in total CPU time with the total number of input ice history steps, which increases with either the length or temporal resolution of the simulation. In this study, we introduce a new “time window” algorithm for 1D pseudo-spectral sea-level models based on the normal mode method that enables users to define the temporal resolution at which the ice loading history is captured during different time intervals before the current simulation time. Utilizing the time window, we assign a fine temporal resolution $\textit{O}$ (10 0–2 years) for the period of ongoing and recent history of surface ice and ocean loading changes and a coarser temporal resolution $\textit{O}$ (10 3–6 years) for earlier periods in the simulation. This reduces the total CPU time and memory required per model time step while maintaining the precision of the model results. We explore the sensitivity of sea-level model results to the model temporal resolution and show how this sensitivity feeds back onto ice-sheet dynamics in coupled modelling. We apply the new algorithm to simulate sea-level changes in response to global ice-sheet evolution over two glacial cycles and the rapid collapse of marine sectors of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in the coming centuries and provide appropriate time window profiles for each application. The time window algorithm reduces the total CPU time by ~ 50 % in each of these examples and changes the trend of the total CPU time increase from quadratic to linear. This improvement would increase with longer simulations than those considered here. Our algorithm also allows for coupling time intervals of annual temporal scale for coupled ice-sheet–sea-level modelling of regions such as West Antarctica that are characterized by rapid solid Earth response to ice changes due to the thin lithosphere and low mantle viscosities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2006

Exploring the Production of NOx by Lightning and Its Impact on Tropospheric Ozone

Our quantitative understanding of free tropospheric (FT) chemistry is quite poor. State-of-the-art regional air quality models (e.g., US EPA's CMAQ) perform very poorly in simulating FT chemistry, with Uniform ozone around 70 ppb throughout the FT in summer, while ozonesonde data show much higher levels of ozone and much spatial-temporal structure. Such models completely neglect lightning-NOx (LNOx) emissions (the most significant source of NOx in the FT), and also contain large uncertainties in the specifications of intercontinental transport, stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) and PBLFT exchange (PFTE). Global air chemistry models include LNOx, but in very crude fashion, with the frequency and distribution of lightning being based on modeled cloud parameters (hence large uncertainty), lightning energetics being assumed to be constant for all flashes (literature value, while in reality there is at least a two-orders of magnitude variability from flash-to-flash), and the production of NOx in the surrounding heated air, per Joule of heating, being assumed to be constant also (literature value, while in fact it is a non-linear function of the dissipated heat and local air density, p). This situation is commonly blamed on paucity of pertinent observational data, but for the USA, there is now a wealth of surface- and satellite-based data of lightning available to permit much improved observation-based estimation of LNOx emissions. In the FT, such NOx has a long residence time, and also the ozone production efficiency from NOx there is considerably higher than in the PBL. It is, therefore, of critical importance in FT chemistry. This paper will describe the approach and data products of an ongoing NSSTC project aimed at a much-improved quantification of not only LNOx production on the scale of continental USA based on local and regional lightning observations, but also of intercontinental transport, STE and PFTE, all in upgraded simulations of tropospheric transport and chemistry. In our approach for LNOx, (a) we utilize continuous observed lightning information from the NLDN ground network and from satellite imagers (OTD and LIS) to quantify lightning frequency and distribution at the spatial-temporal scales of models such as CMAQ; (b) we develop new methodologies to quantify flash-specific lightning energy dissipation as heat (epsilon) using data from the research-grade lightning measurement facility at NASA-KSC, and to parameterize epsilon based on regional lightning monitoring data (ground- and satellite-based); and, (c) we develop a new parameterization of NOx production as a function of epsilon and rho. Based on such observation-based information, we are working to develop a gridded, episodic LNOx emissions inventory for the USA for use in models like CMAQ. We are also developing approaches for global(MOZART)- regional(CMAQ) chemistry coupling to improve intercontinental transport and STE. Finally, we are developing new methodologies for assimilation of satellite-observed (GOES) clouds into meteorological modeling (MM5), to improve PFTE and to optimize co-location of cloud convection and observed lightning. We will incorporate these improvements in CMAQ simulations over the USA to better understand FT processes and chemistry, and its impact on ground-level ozone.

Gillani, Noor↗

NASA NTRS2021

Improved Representation of the Global Dust Cycle Using Observational Constraints on Dust Properties and Abundance

Even though desert dust is the most abundant aerosol by mass in Earth’s atmosphere, atmospheric models 25 struggle to accurately represent its spatial and temporal distribution. These model errors are partially caused byfundamental difficulties in simulating dust emission in coarse-resolution models and in accurately representing dust microphysical properties. Here we mitigate these problems by developing a new methodology that yields an improved representation of the global dust cycle. We present an analytical framework that uses inverse modeling to integrate an ensemble of global model simulations with observational constraints on the dust size distribution, 30 extinction efficiency, and regional dust aerosol optical depth. We then compare the inverse model results against independent measurements of dust surface concentration and deposition flux and find that errors are reduced by approximately a factor of two relative to current model simulations of the Northern Hemisphere dust cycle. The inverse model results show smaller improvements in the less dusty Southern Hemisphere, most likely because both the model simulations and the observational constraints used in the inverse model are less accurate. On a global 35 basis, we find that the emission flux of dust with geometric diameter up to 20 μm (PM20) is approximately 5,000 Tg/year, which is greater than most models account for. This larger PM20 dust flux is needed to match observational constraints showing a large atmospheric loading of coarse dust. We obtain gridded data sets of dust emission, vertically integrated loading, dust aerosol optical depth, (surface) concentration, and wet and dry deposition fluxes that are resolved by season and particle size. As our results indicate that this data set is more accurate than current 40 model simulations and the MERRA-2 dust reanalysis product, it can be used to improve quantifications of dust impacts on the Earth system.

aerosols, dust↗

DOE OSTI2024

Temporal Error Correlations in a Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Model Derived by Comparison to Carbon Dioxide Eddy Covariance Flux Tower Measurements

Abstract Atmospheric CO 2 flux inversions require as input an estimate of spatial and temporal correlations of errors in their estimate of the prior mean. Some previous studies have used the differences in CO 2 daily average flux estimates produced by terrestrial carbon cycle models and eddy covariance measurements to constrain the flux error correlations. Since inversions are starting to resolve the daily cycle, we set out to examine the correlations at sub‐daily time scales, as well as the correlations across years. To this end, we examine the autocorrelations in the difference between net ecosystem‐atmosphere exchange measurements from 75 AmeriFlux towers and temporally downscaled high‐spatial‐resolution flux estimates from the Carnegie‐Ames‐Stanford Approach (CASA) terrestrial carbon cycle model. We find that the daily cycle is prominent in these hourly autocorrelations and that these autocorrelations persist across years. We propose a family of functions to model these temporal correlations in atmospheric inversions, and use cross validation to determine which of the correlation functions best fits autocorrelation data from towers not in the training set. Correlation functions with a component that attempts to model the daily cycle in the differences match correlations from other towers better than those without. Those models that reproduce the same correlation structures at 1‐year intervals while modulating the amplitudes of the correlations between those intervals improve the fit still further.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Extend an innovative HPC-Compatible Multiple Temporal-spatial Resolution Concurrent Finite Element Modeling Approach to Guide Laser Powder Bed Fusion Additive

Laser power bed fusing (PBF) additive manufacturing is a key enabling technology to manufacture highly complex and integrated automotive structures. However, the geometric complexity of PBF-AM technique also leads to highly non-uniform heating and cooling rate in the manufactured part, which may cause flaw formation and produce excessive and nonuniform residual stresses, which increase quality uncertainties and manufacture issues, leading to increases in cost and energy consumption in the form of rejected parts. In this research project, we developed an innovative Multi-Spatial-Temporal-Resolution Finite Element (MUST-FE) method and completed the corresponding high performance computation (HPC) platform-based in-house code, which enables high accuracy prediction of temperature and residual stress fields for component-scale PBF-AM manufacture in efficient computation time. The MUST-FE model is calibrated and validated with a “2D pad” AlSi10Mg experiments by matching the melt pool shape and dimension, and with a “XY-cross” AlSi10Mg experiment by matching the thermal distortion and residual stress. The innovative multi-resolution and concurrent modeling approach adopted in this code ensures accuracy and computational efficiency, which will enable energy-efficient and high-yield, low-cost manufacturing of optimized, qualifiable automotive structures and contribute towards reaching technical targets outlined in AMO’s Program Plan to develop additive manufacturing systems that deliver consistently reliable parts with predictable properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2014

Global-Scale Comparison of Passive (SMOS) and Active (ASCAT) Satellite Based Microwave Soil Moisture Retrievals with Soil Moisture Simulations (MERRA-Land)

Global surface soil moisture (SSM) datasets are being produced based on active and passive microwave satellite observations and simulations from land surface models (LSM). This study investigates the consistency of two global satellite-based SSM datasets based on microwave remote sensing observations from the passive Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS;SMOSL3 version 2.5) and the active Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT; version TUWien- WARP 5.5) with respect to LSM SSM from the MERRA-Land data product. The relationship between the global-scale SSM products was studied during the 2010-2012 period using (1) a time series statistics (considering both original SSM data and anomalies), (2) a space-time analysis using Hovmoller diagrams, and (3) a triple collocation error model. The SMOSL3 and ASCAT retrievals are consistent with the temporal dynamics of modeled SSM (correlation R (is) greater than 0.70 for original SSM) in the transition zones between wet and dry climates, including the Sahel, the Indian subcontinent, the Great Plains of North America, eastern Australia, and southeastern Brazil. Over relatively dense vegetation covers, a better consistency with MERRA-Land was obtained with ASCAT than with SMOSL3. However, it was found that ASCAT retrievals exhibit negative correlation versus MERRA-Land in some arid regions (e.g., the Sahara and the Arabian Peninsula). In terms of anomalies, SMOSL3 better captures the short term SSM variability of the reference dataset (MERRA-Land) than ASCAT over regions with limited radio frequency interference (RFI) effects (e.g., North America, South America, and Australia). The seasonal and latitudinal variations of SSM are relatively similar for the three products, although the MERRALand SSM values are generally higher and their seasonal amplitude is much lower than for SMOSL3 and ASCAT. Both SMOSL3 and ASCAT have relatively comparable triple collocation errors with similar spatial error patterns: (i) lowest errors in arid regions (e.g., Sahara and Arabian Peninsula), due to the very low natural variability of soil moisture in these areas, and Central America, and (ii) highest errors over most of the vegetated regions (e.g., northern Australia, India, central Asia, and South America). However, the ASCAT SSM product is prone to larger random errors in some regions (e.g., north-western Africa, Iran, and southern South Africa). Vegetation density was found to be a key factor to interpret the consistency with MERRA-Land between the two remotely sensed products (SMOSL3 and ASCAT) which provides complementary information on SSM. This study shows that both SMOS and ASCAT have thus a potential for data fusion into long-term data records.

ASCAT↗

NASA NTRS2004

SPIN or LURCH : a Comparative Assessment of Model Checking and Stochastic Search for Temporal Properties in Procedural Code

The difficulty of how to test large systems, such as the one on board a NASA robotic remote explorer (RRE) vehicle, is fundamentally a search issue: the global state space representing all possible has yet to be solved, even after many decades of work. Randomized algorithms have been known to outperform their deterministic counterparts for search problems representing a wide range of applications. In the case study presented here, the LURCH randomized algorithm proved to be adequate to the task of testing a NASA RRE vehicle. LURCH found all the errors found by an earlier analysis of a more complete method (SPIN). Our empirical results are that LURCH can scale to much larger models than standard model checkers like SMV and SPIN. Further, the LURCH analysis was simpler than the SPIN analysis. The simplicity and scalability of LURCH are two compelling reasons for experimenting further with this tool.

verification↗

NASA NTRS2021

Constraining particle acceleration in Sgr A? with simultaneous GRAVITY, Spitzer, NuSTAR, and Chandra observations

We report the time-resolved spectral analysis of a bright near-infrared and moderate X-ray flare of Sgr A⋆. We obtained light curves in the M, K, and H bands in the mid- and near-infrared and in the 2 − 8 keV and 2 − 70 keV bands in the X-ray. The observed spectral slope in the near-infrared band is νLν ∝ ν0.5 ± 0.2; the spectral slope observed in the X-ray band is νLν ∝ ν−0.7 ± 0.5. Using a fast numerical implementation of a synchrotron sphere with a constant radius, magnetic field, and electron density (i.e., a one-zone model), we tested various synchrotron and synchrotron self-Compton scenarios. The observed near-infrared brightness and X-ray faintness, together with the observed spectral slopes, pose challenges for all models explored. We rule out a scenario in which the near-infrared emission is synchrotron emission and the X-ray emission is synchrotron self-Compton. Two realizations of the one-zone model can explain the observed flare and its temporal correlation: one-zone model in which the near-infrared and X-ray luminosity are produced by synchrotron self-Compton and a model in which the luminosity stems from a cooled synchrotron spectrum. Both models can describe the mean spectral energy distribution (SED) and temporal evolution similarly well. In order to describe the mean SED, both models require specific values of the maximum Lorentz factor γmax, which differ by roughly two orders of magnitude. The synchrotron self-Compton model suggests that electrons are accelerated to γmax ∼ 500, while cooled synchrotron model requires acceleration up to γmax ∼ 5 × 104. The synchrotron self-Compton scenario requires electron densities of 1010 cm−3 that are much larger than typical ambient densities in the accretion flow. Furthermore, it requires a variation of the particle density that is inconsistent with the average mass-flow rate inferred from polarization measurements and can therefore only be realized in an extraordinary accretion event. In contrast, assuming a source size of 1 RS, the cooled synchrotron scenario can be realized with densities and magnetic fields comparable with the ambient accretion flow. For both models, the temporal evolution is regulated through the maximum acceleration factor γmax, implying that sustained particle acceleration is required to explain at least a part of the temporal evolution of the flare.

R. Abuter↗

NASA NTRS2008

From Informal Safety-Critical Requirements to Property-Driven Formal Validation

Most of the efforts in formal methods have historically been devoted to comparing a design against a set of requirements. The validation of the requirements themselves, however, has often been disregarded, and it can be considered a largely open problem, which poses several challenges. The first challenge is given by the fact that requirements are often written in natural language, and may thus contain a high degree of ambiguity. Despite the progresses in Natural Language Processing techniques, the task of understanding a set of requirements cannot be automatized, and must be carried out by domain experts, who are typically not familiar with formal languages. Furthermore, in order to retain a direct connection with the informal requirements, the formalization cannot follow standard model-based approaches. The second challenge lies in the formal validation of requirements. On one hand, it is not even clear which are the correctness criteria or the high-level properties that the requirements must fulfill. On the other hand, the expressivity of the language used in the formalization may go beyond the theoretical and/or practical capacity of state-of-the-art formal verification. In order to solve these issues, we propose a new methodology that comprises of a chain of steps, each supported by a specific tool. The main steps are the following. First, the informal requirements are split into basic fragments, which are classified into categories, and dependency and generalization relationships among them are identified. Second, the fragments are modeled using a visual language such as UML. The UML diagrams are both syntactically restricted (in order to guarantee a formal semantics), and enriched with a highly controlled natural language (to allow for modeling static and temporal constraints). Third, an automatic formal analysis phase iterates over the modeled requirements, by combining several, complementary techniques: checking consistency; verifying whether the requirements entail some desirable properties; verify whether the requirements are consistent with selected scenarios; diagnosing inconsistencies by identifying inconsistent cores; identifying vacuous requirements; constructing multiple explanations by enabling the fault-tree analysis related to particular fault models; verifying whether the specification is realizable.

Cimatti, Alessandro↗

DOE OSTI2026

Daily, 30 m Resolution NDSI Data for the East River Watershed, CO for 2000-2020

This dataset contains daily Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) values at 30 m spatial resolution for the East River watershed in Colorado, USA. The temporal range of these data includes water years 2001-2020. These data were created using the Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (STARFM). This model fuses low spatial and high temporal resolution data from MODIS (500 m, daily) with high spatial and low temporal resolution data from Landsat (30 m, 16 days) to create a 30m synthetic daily snow product. This product allows for the analysis of historical snow covered area trends in the East River Watershed at fine spatiotemporal resolutions where it was not available previously. This research was performed as a part of the Department of Energy’s Subsurface Biogeochemical Research Program with the primary intent of better understanding the timing and spatial patterns of water delivery to the Critical Zone in mountain watersheds. Each .zip file contains one "water year" of data (October 1 - September 30; i.e., water year 2010 starts October 1, 2010 and ends September 30, 2011). Each zip file contains the following: STARFM daily Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI) fusion data files in GeoTiff format with one layer for each day between Landsat data acquisition dates (i.e., for dates of Landsat acquisition, the Landsat image is included for that date). The study area is located in an area of Landsat path overlap, so Landsat dates acquisitions are every 7-9 days. Landsat NDSI files containing the high spatial (30m), low temporal (7-9 days due to Landsat path overlap) resolution data used as input to STARFM in GeoTiff format with one layer for each day. Dates for which no Landsat data were obtained are included as NoData layers. MODIS NDSI files containing the high temporal (daily), low spatial (500m) resolution data used as input to STARFM in GeoTiff format with one layer for each day. Please note the MODIS data were resampled to 30m pixels for input into the STARFM model. The data have a scale factor of 10,000 and a no data value of -32767. The projection of all datasets is WGS 84 (EPSG: 4326), which has a latitude/longitude based degree resolution of 0.0002694946 X 0.0002694946, and approximates to the 30 m spatial resolution mentioned above. The Layer Index files in .csv format. They contain information for each layer in the above GeoTiff files regarding the corresponding date for each layer, the fraction of pixels in the image that contain valid data (missing data is due to either cloud cover or poor data quality; these values are not percent snow cover). Dates of Landsat overpass are indicated in these files. If no Landsat data were able to be obtained due to cloud cover or lack of Landsat Tier 1 data available on Google Earth Engine, this is also noted.

EARTH SCIENCE > CRYOSPHERE > SNOW/ICE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Comparison of temporal resolution selection approaches in energy systems models

Capacity expansion models for the power sector are used to project future decisions over the coming decades by simulating investment and operation decisions for the use of electricity. Due to model performance constraints, these models typically do not explicitly simulate every hour within a year, but instead simulate representative time segments (groups of hours). This paper evaluates different approaches for selecting time segments across three methods: sequential, categorical, and clustering, across a wide range of time-segment quantities, for a total of 204 temporal profiles. To measure the performance of each profile's ability to accurately represent data, the root-mean-square-error of each profile's time segments are compared to the data's original hourly data. The temporal alignment across regions is also measured (i.e., how often windy days align across regions). Different spatial resolutions were applied for a subset of the temporal selection methods to investigate the impact spatial resolution has on performance. This paper provides a framework for measuring the value of different temporal selection methods and of adding more granular data to energy system models. Overall, multi-criteria clustering yields the lowest root-mean-square-error across all datasets evaluated and provides a holistic view of the intertwined relationships between renewable generation and electricity demand.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Understanding Event Trajectories Across Massive Temporal Datasets with Word Embeddings and Visualization

In collaboration with researchers from Virginia Tech, Savannah River National Laboratory has continued development of a natural language processing pipeline to identify and extract events of interest from massive open data sources in the domain of worldwide state-sponsored civil nuclear energy. The foundation of the pipeline is built on compass aligned temporal word embedding models, whereby contextual shifts are automatically identified by comparing keyword embedding vectors across successive time windows. Within the approach, a contextual shift indicates the occurrence of a potential event of interest. However, in such a broad topical domain that captures events at a global scale, across various life cycle stages, and across numerous different technology types, a user that is monitoring events may have broad interests in capturing many different event types with varying degrees of signal. As such, the quantity of information that may be returned from an automated event extraction pipeline can be substantial, requiring manual effort to sift through the information to identify any relevant bits of information. Therefore, a more streamlined workflow that aids in directing a user toward specific information at different points in time is necessary. The workflow presented here has been developed with this concept in mind, built on top of the initial prototype event extraction pipeline, whereby a user can analyze temporal text-based data sources at multiple different contextual levels to isolate key points in time and key subdomains captured within a data corpus. Using multiple corpuses that consist of approximately 7 million Tweets and 7 million news articles, the team has extended compass aligned temporal word embedding models to establish an interconnected and hierarchical structure that relates known key words of interest to documents, local topics (i.e., within a time window), and global topics across the corpuses. All of this information is packaged into a visual analytics system that is linked to the information extraction pipeline and enables a user to identify contextual information that describes the evolution of a high dimensional embedding space across time to isolate changes of interest and explore associated events. This report demonstrates the use of these analytics and a means to fuse information across multiple datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Spatio-temporal Fourier Transformer for Long-term Dynamics Prediction (StFT) v1.0

We propose a novel machine learning model spatio-temporal Fourier transformer (StFT) to emulate long-term dynamics of multi-scale and multi-physics systems. Our method StFT overcomes the limitations of rapid error accumulation, particularly in long-term forecasting of systems characterized by complex and coupled dynamics. StFT achieves outstanding accuracy and computational efficiency by effectively capturing multi-scale interactions, and quantify the uncertainties inherent in the predictions. Our model leverages a structured hierarchy of StFT blocks, and explicitly captures dynamics across both macro- and micro- spatial scales. Evaluations conducted on three benchmark datasets (plasma, fluid, and atmospheric dynamics) demonstrate the advantages of our approach over state-of-the-art ML methods.

Bai, Zhe [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (L↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Impact of Time-Aware Design Choices in ICS Anomaly Detection

Industrial control systems (ICS) remain vulnerable to increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks, yet evaluating anomaly detection models in these environments is challenging due to temporal dependencies, missing-not-at-random patterns, and extremely imbalanced datasets. These factors make common practices—especially random data splits and na¨ıve imputation— prone to severe temporal leakage, which can inflate reported performance and obscure real-world limitations. In this work, we systematically examine classical machine learning models, temporal deep learning architecture, and tensordecomposition– based methods on a gas-pipeline dataset using a fully temporally separated evaluation pipeline designed to mimic realistic deployment conditions. Our findings show that proper temporal handling and MNAR-aware preprocessing significantly alter the relative performance of popular anomaly-detection methods, providing practical guidance for designing reliable, leakage-resistant ICS intrusion-detection systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Design Choices in Anomaly Detection for Industrial Control Systems: Insights from Gas Pipeline Data

Industrial control systems (ICS) remain vulnerable to increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks, yet evaluating anomaly detection models in these environments is challenging due to temporal dependencies, missing-not-at-random patterns, and extremely imbalanced datasets. These factors make common practices—especially random data splits and naïve imputation—prone to severe temporal leakage, which can inflate reported performance and obscure real-world limitations. In this work, we systematically examine classical machine learning models, temporal deep learning architecture, and tensor-decomposition–based methods on a gas-pipeline dataset using a fully temporally separated evaluation pipeline designed to mimic realistic deployment conditions. Our findings show that proper temporal handling and MNAR-aware preprocessing significantly alter the relative performance of popular anomaly-detection methods, providing practical guidance for designing reliable, leakage-resistant ICS intrusion-detection systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Time Series Foundation Models and Deep Learning Architectures for Earthquake Temporal and Spatial Nowcasting

Advancing the capabilities of earthquake nowcasting, the real-time forecasting of seismic activities, remains crucial for reducing casualties. This multifaceted challenge has recently gained attention within the deep learning domain, facilitated by the availability of extensive earthquake datasets. Despite significant advancements, the existing literature on earthquake nowcasting lacks comprehensive evaluations of pre-trained foundation models and modern deep learning architectures; each focuses on a different aspect of data, such as spatial relationships, temporal patterns, and multi-scale dependencies. This paper addresses the mentioned gap by analyzing different architectures and introducing two innovative approaches called Multi Foundation Quake and GNNCoder. We formulate earthquake nowcasting as a time series forecasting problem for the next 14 days within 0.1-degree spatial bins in Southern California. Earthquake time series are generated using the logarithm energy released by quakes, spanning 1986 to 2024. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that our introduced models outperform other custom architectures by effectively capturing temporal-spatial relationships inherent in seismic data. The performance of existing foundation models varies significantly based on the pre-training datasets, emphasizing the need for careful dataset selection. However, we introduce a novel method, Multi Foundation Quake, that achieves the best overall performance by combining a bespoke pattern with Foundation model results handled as auxiliary streams.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity

Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity (ORION) is an open-source toolkit developed as part of the US Department of Energy SMART and NRAP programs. ORION is designed to help both expert and non-expert users understand the seismic hazard at a site. This tool analyzes how the seismic hazard evolves during injection of fluid, and can be used to identify potential mitigation strategies for observed or forecasted seismic activity. ORION is built using Python, and has an optional GUI where users can easily configure model parameters, evaluate temporal and spatial forecasts, and inspect key data (seismicity, fluid injection, pressure models, etc.).

Kroll, Kayla↗