Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Time Series Prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Fast and accurate reduced-order modeling of a MOOSE-based additive manufacturing model with operator learning

One predominant challenge in additive manufacturing (AM) is to achieve specific material properties by manipulating manufacturing process parameters during the runtime. Such manipulation tends to increase the computational load imposed on existing simulation tools employed in AM. The goal of the present work is to construct a fast and accurate reduced-order model (ROM) for an AM model developed within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework, ultimately reducing the time/cost of AM control and optimization processes. Our adoption of the operator learning (OL) approach enabled us to learn a family of differential equations produced by altering process variables in the laser’s Gaussian point heat source. More specifically, we used the Fourier neural operator (FNO) and deep operator network (DeepONet) to develop ROMs for time-dependent responses. Furthermore, we benchmarked the performance of these OL methods against a conventional deep neural network (DNN)-based ROM. Ultimately, we found that OL methods offer comparable performance and, in terms of accuracy and generalizability, even outperform DNN at predicting scalar model responses. The DNN-based ROM afforded the fastest training time. Furthermore, all the ROMs were faster than the original MOOSE model yet still provided accurate predictions. FNO had a smaller mean prediction error than DeepONet, with a larger variance for time-dependent responses. Unlike DNN, both FNO and DeepONet were able to simulate time series data without the need for dimensionality reduction techniques. Finally, the present work can help facilitate the AM optimization process by enabling faster execution of simulation tools while still preserving evaluation accuracy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Time-series machine-learning error models for approximate solutions to parameterized dynamical systems

This work proposes a machine-learning framework for modeling the error incurred by approximate solutions to parameterized dynamical systems. In particular, we extend the machine-learning error models (MLEM) framework proposed in Ref. Freno and Carlberg (2019) to dynamical systems. The proposed Time-Series Machine-Learning Error Modeling (T-MLEM) method constructs a regression model that maps features – which comprise error indicators that are derived from standard a posteriori error-quantification techniques – to a random variable for the approximate-solution error at each time instance. The proposed framework considers a wide range of candidate features, regression methods, and additive noise models. We consider primarily recursive regression techniques developed for time-series modeling, including both classical time-series models (e.g., autoregressive models) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), but also analyze standard non-recursive regression techniques (e.g., feed-forward neural networks) for comparative purposes. Finally, numerical experiments conducted on multiple benchmark problems illustrate that the long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network, which is a type of RNN, outperforms other methods and yields substantial improvements in error predictions over traditional approaches.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Conotoxin Prediction: New Features to Increase Prediction Accuracy

Conotoxins are toxic, disulfide-bond-rich peptides from cone snail venom that target a wide range of receptors and ion channels with multiple pathophysiological effects. Conotoxins have extraordinary potential for medical therapeutics that include cancer, microbial infections, epilepsy, autoimmune diseases, neurological conditions, and cardiovascular disorders. Despite the potential for these compounds in novel therapeutic treatment development, the process of identifying and characterizing the toxicities of conotoxins is difficult, costly, and time-consuming. This challenge requires a series of diverse, complex, and labor-intensive biological, toxicological, and analytical techniques for effective characterization. While recent attempts, using machine learning based solely on primary amino acid sequences to predict biological toxins (e.g., conotoxins and animal venoms), have improved toxin identification, these methods are limited due to peptide conformational flexibility and the high frequency of cysteines present in toxin sequences. This results in an enumerable set of disulfide-bridged foldamers with different conformations of the same primary amino acid sequence that affect function and toxicity levels. Consequently, a given peptide may be toxic when its cysteine residues form a particular disulfide-bond pattern, while alternative bonding patterns (isoforms) or its reduced form (free cysteines with no disulfide bridges) may have little or no toxicological effects. Similarly, the same disulfide-bond pattern may be possible for other peptide sequences and result in different conformations that all exhibit varying toxicities to the same receptor or to different receptors. We present here new features, when combined with primary sequence features to train machine learning algorithms to predict conotoxins, that significantly increase prediction accuracy.

collisional cross section↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of machine learning approaches in the analysis of mass absorption cross-section of black carbon aerosols: Aerosol composition dependencies and sensitivity analyses

Physics-based models typically require an in-depth understanding of a phenomenon and assumptions of the underlying process(es), which are often hard to obtain in practice, whereas data-driven machine learning models learn the structure and patterns in the training data without any prior theoretical assumptions and then use inference to develop useful predictions. A novel machine learning-based algorithm has been previously developed for the prediction of black carbon mass absorption cross-section (MAC BC ) and applied to a variety of different atmospheric environments. In contrast to light scattering theories which require assumptions about the underlying physics, this algorithm uses time-series data of aerosol properties to estimate the temporally-varying MAC BC at 870 nm. Here, we analyze our algorithm and discuss the influence of aerosol optical properties (such as Ångström exponents and single scattering albedo) and chemical composition on the model outputs and the associated accuracy. Additionally, we conduct sensitivity analyses on our models to understand how the predictions change in response to different sets of input variables. Our support vector machine (SVM) for regression model is the least sensitive to variations in the input variables, although all models tend to exhibit a degradation to their accuracy when scattering Ångström exponents are less than one.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic regulation of water potential in Juniperus osteosperma mediates ecosystem carbon fluxes

Summary Some plants exhibit dynamic hydraulic regulation, in which the strictness of hydraulic regulation (i.e. iso/anisohydry) changes in response to environmental conditions. However, the environmental controls over iso/anisohydry and the implications of flexible hydraulic regulation for plant productivity remain unknown. InJuniperus osteosperma, a drought‐resistant dryland conifer, we collected a 5‐month growing season time series ofin situ, high temporal‐resolution plant water potential () and stand gross primary productivity (GPP). We quantified the stringency of hydraulic regulation associated with environmental covariates and evaluated how predawn water potential contributes to empirically predicting carbon uptake. Juniperus osteospermashowed less stringent hydraulic regulation (more anisohydric) after monsoon precipitation pulses, when soil moisture and atmospheric demand were high, and corresponded with GPP pulses. Predawn water potential matched the timing of GPP fluxes and improved estimates of GPP more strongly than soil and/or atmospheric moisture, notably resolving GPP underestimation before vegetation green‐up. Flexible hydraulic regulation appears to allowJ. osteospermato prolong soil water extraction and, therefore, the period of high carbon uptake following monsoon precipitation pulses. Water potential and its dynamic regulation may account for why process‐based and empirical models commonly underestimate the magnitude and temporal variability of dryland GPP.

Plant Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2020

Linking Internal Dosimetries of the Propyl Metabolic Series in Rats and Humans Using Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Modeling

The metabolic series approach has successfully linked internal dosimetries of metabolically related compounds reducing cost and time for chemical risk assessments. Here, we developed a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model in rats and humans for the propyl metabolic series including propyl acetate, 1-propanol, propionaldehyde, and propionic acid. Manufacturers use these compounds as organic solvents and intermediates during chemical synthesis. Public exposures can occur through using consumer products containing propyl compounds like cosmetics, aerosol sprays, or foods. To develop the PBPK model, we measured in vitro metabolism of propyl acetate in blood and liver S9 fractions. We measured concentrations of propyl compounds in blood following intravenous (iv) infusion of 13C-propanol or 13C-propionic acid and closed chamber inhalation exposures to propyl acetate or propanol in rats. Using these studies and other published data, we modified an existing PBPK model for the butyl metabolic series to simulate time course concentrations of propyl compounds in rats and humans. Consistent with measured in vitro and in vivo data, the optimized propyl series model predicts rapid clearance of propyl acetate, higher concentrations of propanol in blood from propyl acetate inhalation compared to propanol inhalation, and low concentrations of propionic acid in blood from exposures to propyl acetate or propanol. Regulators can use this model as a tool for propyl compound risk assessment by linking internal dosimetries under various exposure scenarios.

Smith, Jordan N.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multiscale CFD simulation of biomass fast pyrolysis with a machine learning derived intra-particle model and detailed pyrolysis kinetics

Coupling particle and reactor scale models is as essential as reactor fluid dynamics and particle motion for accurate Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) simulations of biomass fast pyrolysis reactors due to intraparticle heat transfer and chemical reactions controlling conversion time and product distributions. Direct online coupling of a particle model with a reactor model is computationally expensive, while offline coupling is case-dependent. In this research, solutions from a series of particle pyrolysis simulations were regressed with Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Furthermoer, this machine learning-derived model predicted the same temperature and conversion profiles compared with particle resolved simulation while the isothermal approach overpredicted the temperature by 130 K and underpredicted the conversion time by 30 s. The ANN model was then integrated into CFD simulations of fluidized bed biomass fast pyrolysis with varied feedstocks via coupling PyTorch and MFiX. The averaged error of simulation predicted bio-oil yields with four feedstocks is 6.4%. This multi-scale approach provides an efficient tool for the coupled particle and reactor scale simulations of biomass pyrolysis.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Automated Framework for Groundwater Monitoring Using DWT with LSTM and Transformers

Environmental monitoring is critical for safeguarding public health and ecological well-being. Traditional data structuring and workflow monitoring methods consume significant time and effort, hindering timely insights and effective decision-making. Our study addresses this challenge by presenting an AI framework that automates data cleaning, structuring, and modeling processes, specifically targeting applications in groundwater monitoring. By leveraging automation for data processing and model training, our framework establishes a novel and efficient paradigm for environmental monitoring, with its potential application to the vast network of over a hundred Department of Energy Environmental Management (DoE-EM) cleanup sites across the country. It analyzes data streams from a network of groundwater Internet-of-Things (IoT) sensors deployed at the Savannah River Site (SRS) for prediction modeling. This allows human experts to focus on analysis and decision-making, ultimately leading to better environmental outcomes.The framework employs multivariate time-series forecasting methods to study and model the behavior of varying chemical analytes. The continuous learning process is enabled by utilizing deep learning techniques. It allows the framework to become more nuanced in its analysis over time, adapting to the specific characteristics of the environmental site and the evolving nature of contaminant behavior. Deep learning models known for sequence modeling, LSTM, and Transformers are employed for time series forecasting. Data processing and structuring are essential components significantly impacting the final model's performance. This hypothesis was proven by presenting a comparative analysis of model performance with processed and unprocessed data. The feature engineering approach utilized was the Discrete Wavelet Transform, which works well with time series data.

Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty-Guided Prediction Horizon of Phase-Resolved Ocean Wave Forecasting Under Data Sparsity: Experimental and Numerical Evaluation

Accurate short-term wave forecasting is critical for the safe and efficient operation of marine structures that rely on real-time, phase-resolved ocean wave information for control and monitoring purposes (e.g., digital twins). These systems often depend on environmental sensors (e.g., waverider buoys, wave-sensing LIDAR). Challenges arise when upstream sensor data are missing, sparse, or phase-shifted due to drift. This study investigates the performance of two machine learning models, time-series dense encoder (TiDE) and long short-term memory (LSTM), for forecasting phase-resolved ocean surface elevations under varying degrees of data degradation. We introduce the τ-trimming algorithm, which adapts the prediction horizon based on uncertainty thresholds derived from historical forecasts. Numerical wave tank (NWT) and wave basin experiments are used to benchmark model performance under short- and long-term data masking, spatially coarse sensor grids, and upstream phase shifts. Results show under a 50% probability of upstream data loss, the τ-trimmed TiDE model achieves a 46% reduction in error at the most upstream target, compared to 22% for LSTM. Furthermore, phase misalignment in upstream data introduces a near-linear increase in forecast error. Under moderate model settings, a ±3 s misalignment increases the mean absolute error by approximately 0.5 m, while the same error is accumulated at ±4 s using the more conservative approach. These findings inform the design of resilient, uncertainty-aware wave forecasting systems suited for realistic offshore sensing environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Variational data augmentation for a learning-based granular predictive model of power outages

As the trend in climate change continues, extreme weather events are expected to occur with increasing frequency and severity and pose a significant threat to the electric power infrastructure. Regardless of the efforts a utility puts towards hardening the grid, storm-induced damage to the utility assets such as cables and distributed energy resources (DERs) that are particularly vulnerable to such events is unavoidable. Access to a highly granular, in space and time, outage forecasting tool with long lead times (i.e., days ahead) will enhance the efficiency of service restoration efforts. Here, in this study, we propose to develop and implement a multi-model framework as an operational tool based on a granular and multi-day outage forecasting model using operational numerical weather prediction model forecasts and detailed component outage information. An innovative two-layered recurrent neural network, i.e., a long-short-term-memory (LSTM)-based variational autoencoder (VAE) framework and a sliding window are used to address the uneven distribution of different types of weather events and make better use of the time-series data. Case studies are performed to demonstrate the performance of the new framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Insights from application of a hierarchical spatio-temporal model to an intensive urban black carbon monitoring dataset

Existing regulatory pollutant monitoring networks rely on a small number of centrally located measurement sites that are purposefully sited away from major emission sources. While informative of general air quality trends regionally, these networks often do not fully capture the local variability of air pollution exposure within a community. Recent technological advancements have reduced the cost of sensors, allowing air quality monitoring campaigns with high spatial resolution. The 100×100 black carbon (BC) monitoring network deployed 100 low-cost BC sensors across the 15 km 2 West Oakland, CA community for 100 days in the summer of 2017, producing a nearly continuous site-specific time series of BC concentrations which we aggregated to one-hour averages. Leveraging this dataset, we employed a hierarchical spatio-temporal model to accurately predict local spatio-temporal concentration patterns throughout West Oakland, at locations without monitors (average cross-validated hourly temporal R 2 =0.60). Using our model, we identified spatially varying temporal pollution patterns associated with small-scale geographic features and proximity to local sources. In a sub-sampling analysis, here we demonstrated that fine scale predictions of nearly comparable accuracy can be obtained with our modeling approach by using ~30% of the 100×100 BC network supplemented by a shorter-term high-density campaign.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Challenges and Potential of Waveform Modeling for Crustal Scale Predictions

Waveform modeling is crucial to improving our understanding of observed seismograms. Forward simulation of wavefields provides quantitative methods of testing interactions between complicated source functions and the propagation medium. Here, we discuss three experiments designed to improve under standing of high frequency seismic wave propagation. First, we compare observed and predicted travel times of crustal phases for a set of real observed earthquakes with calculations and synthetic seismograms. Second, we estimate the frequency content of a series of nearly co-located earthquakes of varying magnitude for which we have a relatively well- known 1D velocity model. Third, we apply stochastic perturbations on top of a 3D tomographic model and qualitatively assess how those variations map to differences in the seismograms. While different in scope and aim, these three vignettes illustrate the current state of crustal scale waveform modeling and the potential for future studies to better constrain the structure of the crust.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

INSPIRED: Inelastic neutron scattering prediction for instantaneous results and experimental design

Inelastic neutron scattering (INS) has unique advantages in probing how atoms vibrate and how the vibrations propagate and interact. Such dynamic information is crucial in understanding various material properties, from heat capacity, thermal conductivity, phase transitions, and chemical reactions to more exotic quantum behavior. The analysis and interpretation of the INS spectra often start from a model structure of the sample, followed by a series of calculations to obtain the simulated spectra to compare with experiments. The conventional way to perform such calculations usually requires significant time, computing resources, and specialized expertise. Here, we present a new program named INSPIRED (Inelastic Neutron Scattering Prediction for Instantaneous Results and Experimental Design), which enables users to perform rapid INS simulations in several different ways on their personal computers in just a few clicks, with the crystal structure as the only input file. Specifically, the users can choose a pre-trained symmetry-aware neural network (coupled with an autoencoder) to predict the phonon density of states (DOS), 1D S(E) and 2D S(|Q|,E) spectra for any given structure. One can also choose an existing density functional theory (DFT) calculation from a database (containing over 12,000 crystals), and quickly obtain the simulated INS spectra for single crystals and powders. It is also possible to use pre-trained universal machine learning force fields to relax a given crystal structure, calculate the phonon dispersion and DOS, and, subsequently, the INS spectra. All these functions are implemented with a PyQt graphic user interface. Finally, we expect these new tools will benefit broad user communities and significantly improve the efficiency of experiment design, execution, and data analysis for INS.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Tanks-in-Series Approach to Estimate Parameters for Lithium-Ion Battery Models

Advanced Battery Management Systems (BMS) play a vital role in monitoring, predicting, and controlling the performance of lithium-ion batteries. BMS employing sophisticated electrochemical models can help increase battery cycle life and minimize charging time. However, in order to realize the full potential of electrochemical model-based BMS, it is critical to ensure accurate predictions and proper model parameterization. The accuracy of the predictions of an electrochemical model is dependent on the accuracy of its parameters, the values of which might change with battery cycling and aging. Parameter estimation for an electrochemical model is generally challenging due to the nonlinear nature and computational complexity of the model equations. To this end, this work utilizes the recently proposed Tanks-in-Series model for Li-ion batteries (J.Electrochem. Soc., 167, 013534 (2020)) to perform parameter estimation. The Tanks-in-Series approach allows for substantially faster parameter estimation compared to the original pseudo two-dimensional (p2D) model. The objective of this work is thus to demonstrate the gain in computational efficiency from the Tanks-in-Series approach. A sensitivity analysis of model parameters is also performed to benchmark the fidelity of the Tanks-in-Series model.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Local-scale heterogeneity of soil thermal dynamics and controlling factors in a discontinuous permafrost region

In permafrost regions, the strong spatial and temporal variability in soil temperature cannot be explained by the weather forcing only. Understanding the local heterogeneity of soil thermal dynamics and their controls is essential to understand how permafrost systems respond to climate change and to develop process-based models or remote sensing products for predicting soil temperature. In this study, we analyzed soil temperature dynamics and their controls in a discontinuous permafrost region on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. We acquired one-year temperature time series at multiple depths (at 5 or 10 cm intervals up to 85 cm depth) at 45 discrete locations across a 2.3 km 2 watershed. We observed a larger spatial variability in winter temperatures than that in summer temperatures at all depths, with the former controlling most of the spatial variability in mean annual temperatures. We also observed a strong correlation between mean annual ground temperature at a depth of 85 cm and mean annual or winter season ground surface temperature across the 45 locations. We demonstrate that soils classified as cold, intermediate, or warm using hierarchical clustering of full-year temperature data closely match their co-located vegetation (graminoid tundra, dwarf shrub tundra, and tall shrub tundra, respectively). We show that the spatial heterogeneity in soil temperature is primarily driven by spatial heterogeneity in snow cover, which induces variable winter insulation and soil thermal diffusivity. These effects further extend to the subsequent summer by causing variable latent heat exchanges. Finally, we discuss the challenges of predicting soil temperatures from snow depth and vegetation height alone by considering the complexity observed in the field data and reproduced in a model sensitivity analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Low flow characteristics for regulated and unregulated streams in North Carolina and prediction using climate signals

In this work, low flow statistics of regulated and unregulated streams in the state of North Carolina were updated with streamflow data through 2019. About 22% of the streams considered show a significant downward trend, but considerable low-frequency variability confounding trends. The relationship between regional index time series of groundwater-depth low flow and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) was examined to determine whether low-frequency climate modes can account for the long-term pattern in low flows. Consequently, a significant correlation was found between AMO and groundwater-depth low flow, such that positive AMO is associated with lower groundwater-depth low flow and vice versa, particularly for the Piedmont region. Predictive equations for annual low flows at the ecoregion level shows that springtime average streamflow and AMO were selected as the primary predictors of low flow for coastal and Piedmont regions, whereas springtime average streamflow and the November–December–January average Oceanic Niño Index were used as the primary predictors for the mountain region. The relative root mean square error (RMSE) of the disaggregated predictions to US Geologic Survey gauge locations was <23% at 79% of the stations, between 24% and 43% at 10% of the stations, and greater than 44% at 1% of the stations. The remaining 10% of stations showed large RMSEs. This latter percentage is characterized by smaller drainage basins and intermittent flows, suggesting the prediction models are not applicable to drainage basins smaller than roughly 20 square km and intermittent streams.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

On the advantages of exploiting memory in Markov state models for biomolecular dynamics

Biomolecular dynamics play an important role in numerous biological processes. Markov State Models (MSMs) provide a powerful approach to study these dynamic processes by predicting long time scale dynamics based on many short molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. In an MSM, protein dynamics are modeled as a kinetic process consisting of a series of Markovian transitions between different conformational states at discrete time intervals (called “lag time”). To achieve this, a master equation must be constructed with a sufficiently long lag time to allow interstate transitions to become truly Markovian. This imposes a major challenge for MSM studies of proteins since the lag time is bound by the length of relatively short MD simulations available to estimate the frequency of transitions. Here, we show how one can employ the generalized master equation formalism to obtain an exact description of protein conformational dynamics both at short and long time scales without the time resolution restrictions imposed by the MSM lag time. Using a simple kinetic model, alanine dipeptide, and WW domain, we demonstrate that it is possible to construct these quasi-Markov State Models (qMSMs) using MD simulations that are 5–10 times shorter than those required by MSMs. These qMSMs only contain a handful of metastable states and, thus, can greatly facilitate the interpretation of mechanisms associated with protein dynamics. A qMSM opens the door to the study of conformational changes of complex biomolecules where a Markovian model with a few states is often difficult to construct due to the limited length of available MD simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗