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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Global Temperature Responses to Large Tropical Volcanic Eruptions in Paleo Data Assimilation Products and Climate Model Simulations Over the Last Millennium

Abstract Large volcanic eruptions are one of the dominant perturbations to global and regional atmospheric temperatures on timescales of years to decades. Discrepancies remain, however, in the estimated magnitude and persistence of the surface temperature cooling caused by volcanic eruptions, as characterized by paleoclimatic proxies and climate models. We investigate these discrepancies in the context of large tropical eruptions over the Last Millennium using two state‐of‐the‐art data assimilation products, the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product (PHYDA) and the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR), and simulations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model‐Last Millennium Ensemble (NCAR CESM‐LME). We find that PHYDA and LMR estimate mean global and hemispheric cooling that is similar in magnitude and persistence once effects from eruptions occurring in short succession are removed. The estimates also compare well to Northern‐Hemisphere reconstructions based solely or partially on tree‐ring density, which have been proposed as the most accurate proxy estimates of surface cooling due to volcanism. All proxy‐based estimates also agree well with the magnitude of the mean cooling simulated by the CESM‐LME. Differences remain, however, in the spatial patterns of the temperature responses in the PHYDA, LMR, and the CESM‐LME. The duration of cooling anomalies also persists for several years longer in the PHYDA and LMR relative to the CESM‐LME. Our results demonstrate progress in resolving discrepancies between proxy‐ and model‐based estimates of temperature responses to volcanism, but also indicate these estimates must be further reconciled to better characterize the risks of future volcanic eruptions.

Tejedor, E.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Throughfall-Reduction Drying Effects on Gravimetric Soil Moisture at Two Depths in Four Lowland Panamanian Forests from 2015-2022

Objectives: Climatic drying is predicted for many tropical forests, yet effects on soil properties across moisture and soil gradients within tropical forests remain poorly characterized, hampering predictions of forest-climate feedbacks. We hypothesized that drying would suppress soil CO2 fluxes (i.e., respiration) in already-drier tropical forests by further reductions in soil moisture, but increases CO2 fluxes in wetter tropical forests by alleviating anaerobiosis and soil saturation. We measured soil CO2 fluxes, soil moisture, soil temperature, and forest floor biomass during wet-dry cycles (2015 – 2022) in four Panamanian forests that vary in rainfall and soil fertility. We also surveyed all tree species and identified to species in 2018 and 2019.Results: We found that soil moisture peaked in the wet season and declined in the dry season. Measured soil CO2 fluxes declined in the dry season and peaked in the early wet season ahead of peak soil moisture, resulting in a lower soil moisture optimum for respiration than previously modeled. Chronic throughfall exclusion also suppressed soil moisture across the four forests to 20cm depths, and also initially suppressed soil CO2 fluxes across forests. There was sustained suppression of soil CO2 fluxes after four years in the wettest forest only (-28 ± 4% during the dry season), but elevated soil CO2 fluxes in a fertile forest after four years (+75 ± 28% during the late wet season). The unexpected negative drying effect in the wettest, most infertile forest could have resulted from reduced vertical flushing of nutrients into soils, as the drying effect increased with time. Including hydro-nutrient interactions in ecosystem models could improve predictions of tropical forest-climate feedbacks (results presented in Cusack et al. 2023). Datasets included: Datasets included here include .csv and .xls files for gravimetric soil moisture (weight/weight). Soil moisture was collected on a quarterly basis from 0-10 cm and 10-20 cm depths using hand-held constant-volume soil corers. Data are on ~3 month timescales from 2015-2022 with some gaps. There is also a .kml file that includes coordinates for all 32 plots included in the study of four forests (n = 4 throughfall reduction and n = 4 control plots per site). No special software is needed to open these files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Throughfall-Reduction Drying Effects on Forest Floor Plant Tissue Biomass (Oi+Oe soil horizons) and Moisture Content in Four Lowland Panamanian Forests

Objectives: Climatic drying is predicted for many tropical forests, yet effects on soil properties across moisture and soil gradients within tropical forests remain poorly characterized, hampering predictions of forest-climate feedbacks. We hypothesized that drying would suppress soil CO2 fluxes (i.e., respiration) in already-drier tropical forests by further reductions in soil moisture, but increases CO2 fluxes in wetter tropical forests by alleviating anaerobiosis and soil saturation. We measured soil CO2 fluxes, soil moisture, soil temperature, and forest floor biomass during wet-dry cycles (2015 – 2022) in four Panamanian forests that vary in rainfall and soil fertility. We also surveyed all tree species and identified to species in 2018 and 2019.Results: We found that soil moisture peaked in the wet season and declined in the dry season. Measured soil CO2 fluxes declined in the dry season and peaked in the early wet season ahead of peak soil moisture, resulting in a lower soil moisture optimum for respiration than previously modeled. Forest floor biomass peaked in the dry season, in contrast. Chronic throughfall exclusion also suppressed soil moisture across the four forests to 20cm depths, and also initially suppressed soil CO2 fluxes across forests. There was sustained suppression of soil CO2 fluxes after four years in the wettest forest only (-28 ± 4% during the dry season), but elevated soil CO2 fluxes in a fertile forest after four years (+75 ± 28% during the late wet season). The unexpected negative drying effect in the wettest, most infertile forest could have resulted from reduced vertical flushing of nutrients into soils, as the drying effect increased with time. Including hydro-nutrient interactions in ecosystem models could improve predictions of tropical forest-climate feedbacks (results presented in Cusack et al. 2023). Datasets included: Datasets included here include .csv and .xls files for forest floor biomass (equivalent to the Oi+Oe soil horizons), and a subset include forest floor biomass moisture content (weight/weight) in the study plots. There is also a .kml file that includes coordinates for all 32 plots included in the study of four forests (n = 4 throughfall reduction and n = 4 control plots per site). No special software is needed to open these files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Throughfall-Reduction Drying Effects on Soil Moisture and Soil Temperature at 30-Minute Intervals Four Lowland Panamanian Forests

Objectives: Climatic drying is predicted for many tropical forests, yet effects on soil properties across moisture and soil gradients within tropical forests remain poorly characterized, hampering predictions of forest-climate feedbacks. We hypothesized that drying would suppress soil CO2 fluxes (i.e., respiration) in already-drier tropical forests by further reductions in soil moisture, but increases CO2 fluxes in wetter tropical forests by alleviating anaerobiosis and soil saturation. We measured soil CO2 fluxes, soil moisture, soil temperature, and forest floor biomass during wet-dry cycles (2015 – 2022) in four Panamanian forests that vary in rainfall and soil fertility. We also surveyed all tree species and identified to species in 2018 and 2019.Results: We found that soil moisture peaked in the wet season and declined in the dry season. Measured soil CO2 fluxes declined in the dry season and peaked in the early wet season ahead of peak soil moisture, resulting in a lower soil moisture optimum for respiration than previously modeled. Chronic throughfall exclusion also suppressed soil moisture across the four forests, and also initially suppressed soil CO2 fluxes across forests. There was sustained suppression of soil CO2 fluxes after four years in the wettest forest only (-28 ± 4% during the dry season), but elevated soil CO2 fluxes in a fertile forest after four years (+75 ± 28% during the late wet season). The unexpected negative drying effect in the wettest, most infertile forest could have resulted from reduced vertical flushing of nutrients into soils, as the drying effect increased with time. Including hydro-nutrient interactions in ecosystem models could improve predictions of tropical forest-climate feedbacks (Cusack et al. 2023). Datasets included: Datasets here include .csv and .xls files for volumetric soil moisture (volume/volume) and soil temperature (°C). Data were taken at 30-minute intervals at 5cm and 20cm depths using permanent probes and data loggers (see methods). Data presented are from 2018-2019. There is also a .kml file that includes coordinates for all 32 plots included in the study of four forests (n = 4 throughfall reduction and n = 4 control plots per site). No special software is needed to open these files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of Model Resolution on Tropical Cyclone Simulation Using the HighResMIP–PRIMAVERA Multimodel Ensemble

A multimodel, multiresolution set of simulations over the period 1950–2014 using a common forcing protocol from CMIP6 HighResMIP have been completed by six modeling groups. Analysis of tropical cyclone performance using two different tracking algorithms suggests that enhanced resolution toward 25 km typically leads to more frequent and stronger tropical cyclones, together with improvements in spatial distribution and storm structure. Both of these factors reduce typical GCM biases seen at lower resolution. Using single ensemble members of each model, there is little evidence of systematic improvement in interannual variability in either storm frequency or accumulated cyclone energy as compared with observations when resolution is increased. Changes in the relationships between large-scale drivers of climate variability and tropical cyclone variability in the Atlantic Ocean are also not robust to model resolution. However, using a larger ensemble of simulations (of up to 14 members) with one model at different resolutions does show evidence of increased skill at higher resolution. The ensemble mean correlation of Atlantic interannual tropical cyclone variability increases from ~0.5 to ~0.65 when resolution increases from 250 to 100 km. In the northwestern Pacific Ocean the skill keeps increasing with 50-km resolution to 0.7. These calculations also suggest that more than six members are required to adequately distinguish the impact of resolution within the forced signal from the weather noise.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2001

Sensitivity of the Tropical Atmospheric Energy Balance to ENSO-Related SST Changes: Comparison of Climate Model Simulations to Observed Responses

This paper focuses on how fresh water and radiative fluxes over the tropical oceans change during ENSO warm and cold events and how these changes affect the tropical energy balance. At present, ENSO remains the most prominent known mode of natural variability at interannual time scales. While this natural perturbation to climate is quite distinct from possible anthropogenic changes in climate, adjustments in the tropical water and energy budgets during ENSO may give insight into feedback processes involving water vapor and cloud feedbacks. Although great advances have been made in understanding this phenomenon and realizing prediction skill over the past decade, our ability to document the coupled water and energy changes observationally and to represent them in climate models seems far from settled (Soden, 2000 J Climate). In a companion paper we have presented observational analyses, based principally on space-based measurements which document systematic changes in rainfall, evaporation, and surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes. Here we analyze several contemporary climate models run with observed SSTs over recent decades and compare SST-induced changes in radiation, precipitation, evaporation, and energy transport to observational results. Among these are the NASA / NCAR Finite Volume Model, the NCAR Community Climate Model, the NCEP Global Spectral Model, and the NASA NSIPP Model. Key disagreements between model and observational results noted in the recent literature are shown to be due predominantly to observational shortcomings. A reexamination of the Langley 8-Year Surface Radiation Budget data reveals errors in the SST surface longwave emission due to biased SSTs. Subsequent correction allows use of this data set along with ERBE TOA fluxes to infer net atmospheric radiative heating. Further analysis of recent rainfall algorithms provides new estimates for precipitation variability in line with interannual evaporation changes inferred from the da Silva, Young, Levitus COADS analysis. The overall results from our analysis suggest an increase (decrease) of the hydrologic cycle during ENSO warm (cold) events at the rate of about 5 W/sq m per K of SST change. Model results agree reasonably well with this estimate of sensitivity. This rate is slightly less than that which would be expected for constant relative humidity over the tropical oceans. There remain, however, significant quantitative uncertainties in cloud forcing changes in the models as compared to observations. These differences are examined in relationship to model convection and cloud parameterizations Analysis of the possible sampling and measurement errors compared to systematic model errors is also presented.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Throughfall-Reduction Drying Effects on Soil Respiration, Moisture, and Temperature in Four Distinct Lowland Panamanian Forests from 2015-2022

Objectives: Climatic drying is predicted for many tropical forests, yet effects on soil properties across moisture and soil gradients within tropical forests remain poorly characterized, hampering predictions of forest-climate feedbacks. We hypothesized that throughfall reduction (i.e. chronic drying) would suppress soil CO2 fluxes (i.e., respiration) in already-drier tropical forests by further reductions in soil moisture, but increases CO2 fluxes in wetter tropical forests by alleviating anaerobiosis and soil saturation. We conducted a field study in four distinct lowland Panamanian forests that vary in background rainfall and soil fertility. In each forest we constructed throughfall reduction structures that reduce moisture inputs to plots by ~50% (see methods). In drying and paired control plots we measured soil CO2 fluxes, soil moisture (volume/volume), soil temperature (°C), air temperature (°C), and forest floor biomass during wet-dry cycles (2015 – 2022). We also collected litterfall biomass and surveyed all tree species for diameter at breast height (dbh), and identified tree species in 2018 and 2019.Results:We found that soil moisture peaked in the wet season and declined in the dry season. Measured soil CO2 fluxes declined in the dry season and peaked in the early wet season ahead of peak soil moisture, resulting in a lower soil moisture optimum for respiration than previously modeled. Chronic throughfall exclusion also suppressed soil moisture across the four forests, and also initially suppressed soil CO2 fluxes across forests. There was sustained suppression of soil CO2 fluxes after four years in the wettest forest only (-28 ± 4% during the dry season), but elevated soil CO2 fluxes in a fertile forest after four years (+75 ± 28% during the late wet season). The unexpected negative drying effect in the wettest, most infertile forest could have resulted from reduced vertical flushing of nutrients into soils, as the drying effect increased with time. Including hydro-nutrient interactions in ecosystem models could improve predictions of tropical forest-climate feedbacks. Datasets included: Datasets included here include .csv and .xls files for soil respiration (carbon dioxide flux) collected using the LiCor (see methods), air temperature °C , soil moisture (vl/vl), and soil temperature °C. Soil moisture and soil temperature were collected at 0-10cm depths using hand-held probes (see methods). Data are on ~3 week timescales from 2015-2022 with some gaps. There is also a .kml file that includes coordinates for all 32 plots included in the study of four forests (n = 4 throughfall reduction and n = 4 control plots per site). No special software is needed to open these files.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

Dependence of Cumulus Anvil Radiative Properties on Environmental Conditions in the Tropical West Pacific

Areally extensive, optically thick anvil clouds associated with mesoscale convective clusters dominate the shortwave cloud forcing in the tropics and provide longwave forcing comparable to that of thin cirrus. Changes in the cover and optical thickness of tropical anvils as climate warms can regulate the sign of cloud feedback. As a prelude to the study of MMCR data from the ARM TWP sites, we analyze ISCCP-derived radiative characteristics of anvils observed in the tropical west Pacific during the TOGA-COARE IOP. Anvils with radius greater than 100 km were identified and tracked from inception to decay using the Machado-Rossow algorithm. Corresponding environmental conditions just prior to the start of the convectove event were diagnosed using the Lin-Johnson objective analysis product. Small clusters (100-200 km radius) are observed to have a broad range of optical thicknesses (10-50), while intermediate optical thickness clusters are observed to range in size from 100 km to almost 1000 km. Large-size clusters appear to be favored by strong pre-storm large scale upward motion throughout the troposphere, moist low-to-midlevel relative humidities, environments with slightly higher CAPE than those for smaller clusters, and strong front-to-rear flow. Optically thick anvils are favored in situations of strong low-level moisture convergence and strong upper-level shear.

Ye, B.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The tropical water and energy cycles in a cumulus ensemble model. Part 1: Equilibrium climate

A cumulus ensemble model is used to study the tropical water and energy cycles and their role in the climate system. The model includes cloud dynamics, radiative processes, and microphysics that incorporate all important production and conversion processes among water vapor and five species of hydrometeors. Radiative transfer in clouds is parameterized based on cloud contents and size distributions of each bulk hydrometeor. Several model integrations have been carried out under a variety of imposed boundary and large-scale conditions. In Part 1 of this paper, the primary focus is on the water and heat budgets of the control experiment, which is designed to simulate the convective - radiative equilibrium response of the model to an imposed vertical velocity and a fixed sea surface temperature at 28 C. The simulated atmosphere is conditionally unstable below the freezing level and close to neutral above the freezing level. The equilibrium water budget shows that the total moisture source, M(sub s), which is contributed by surface evaporation (0.24 M(sub s)) and the large-scale advection (0.76 M(sub s)), all converts to mean surface precipitation bar-P(sub s). Most of M(sub s) is transported verticaly in convective regions where much of the condensate is generated and falls to surface (0.68 bar-P(sub s)). The remaining condensate detrains at a rate of 0.48 bar-P(sub s) and constitutes 65% of the source for stratiform clouds above the melting level. The upper-level stratiform cloud dissipates into clear environment at a rate of 0.14 bar-P(sub s), which is a significant moisture source comparable to the detrained water vapor (0.15 bar-P(sub s)) to the upper troposphere from convective clouds. In the lower troposphere, stratiform clouds evaporate at a rate of 0.41 bar-P(sub s), which is a more dominant moisture source than surface evaporation (0.22 bar-P(sub s)). The precipitation falling to the surface in the stratiform region is about 0.32 bar-P(sub s). The associated latent heating in the water cycle is the dominant source in the heat budget that generates a net upward motion in convective regions, upper stratiform regions (above the freezing level), and a downward motion in the lower stratiform regions. The budgets reveal a cycle of water and energy resulted from radiation-dynamic-convection interactions that maintain equilibrium of the atmosphere.

Sui, C. H.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Interannual Variations and Trends in Global Land Surface Phenology Derived from Enhanced Vegetation Index During 1982-2010

Land swiace phenology is widely retrieved from satellite observations at regional and global scales, and its long-term record has been demonstmted to be a valuable tool for reconstructing past climate variations, monitoring the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems in response to climate impacts, and predicting biological responses to future climate scenarios. This srudy detected global land surface phenology from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from 1982 to 2010. Based on daily enhanced vegetation index at a spatial resolution of 0.05 degrees, we simulated the seasonal vegetative trajectory for each individual pixel using piecewise logistic models, which was then used to detect the onset of greenness increase (OGI) and the length of vegetation growing season (GSL). Further, both overall interannual variations and pixel-based trends were examIned across Koeppen's climate regions for the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010, respectively. The results show that OGI and OSL varied considerably during 1982-2010 across the globe. Generally, the interarmual variation could be more than a month in precipitation-controlled tropical and dry climates while it was mainly less than 15 days in temperature-controlled temperate, cold, and polar climates. OGI, overall, shifted early, and GSL was prolonged from 1982 to 2010 in most climate regions in North America and Asia while the consistently significant trends only occurred in cold climate and polar climate in North America. The overall trends in Europe were generally insignificant. Over South America, late OGI was consistent (particularly from 1982 to 1999) while either positive or negative OSL trends in a climate region were mostly reversed between the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010. In the Northern Hemisphere of Africa, OGI trends were mostly insignificant, but prolonged GSL was evident over individual climate regions during the last 3 decades. OGI mainly showed late trends in the Southern Hemisphere of Africa while GSL was reversed from reduced GSL trends (1982-1999) to prolonged trends (2000-2010). In Australia, GSL exhibited considerable interannual variation, but the consistent trend lacked presence in most regions. Finally, the proportion of pixels with significant trends was less than I% in most of climate regions although it could be as large as 10%.

remote sensing↗
NASA NTRS2002

Role of Satellite Rainfall Information in Improving Understanding of the Dynamical Link Between the Tropics and Extratropics Prospects of Improved Forecasts of Weather and Short-Term Climate Variability on Sub-Seasonal Time Scales

The tropics and extratropics are two dynamically distinct regimes. The coupling between these two regimes often defies simple analytical treatment. Progress in understanding of the dynamical interaction between the tropics and extratropics relies on better observational descriptions to guide theoretical development. However, global analyses currently contain significant errors in primary hydrological variables such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and clouds, especially in the tropics. Tropical analyses have been shown to be sensitive to parameterized precipitation processes, which are less than perfect, leading to order-one discrepancies between estimates produced by different data assimilation systems. One strategy for improvement is to assimilate rainfall observations to constrain the analysis and reduce uncertainties in variables physically linked to precipitation. At the Data Assimilation Office at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, we have been exploring the use of tropical rain rates derived from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments in global data assimilation. Results show that assimilating these data improves not only rainfall and moisture fields but also related climate parameters such as clouds and radiation, as well as the large-scale circulation and short-range forecasts. These studies suggest that assimilation of microwave rainfall observations from space has the potential to significantly improve the quality of 4-D assimilated datasets for climate investigations (Hou et al. 2001). In the next few years, there will be a gradual increase in microwave rain products available from operational and research satellites, culminating to a target constellation of 9 satellites to provide global rain measurements every 3 hours with the proposed Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission in 2007. Continued improvements in assimilation methodology, rainfall error estimates, and model parameterizations are needed to ensure that we derive maximum benefits from these observations.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Quasi-periodic oscillations in a symmetric general circulation model

Observational evidence has been presented for the existence of quasi-periodic fluctuations of the tropical circulation with periods around two weeks and around 40 days. It is expected that an understanding of the mechanisms of these quasi-periodic oscillations in the tropical atmosphere will improve the predictability of the short range climate fluctuations in the tropics. The present study evolved as an outgrowth of an investigation conducted by Goswami et al. (1984). In this investigation remarkable oscillations of the Hadlay circulation for an ocean covered earth were observed. In the current study evidence is presented regarding the episodic behavior of the tropical circulation in general, and the propagation characteristics of these oscillations in the lower atmosphere. Attention is given to the results of six different experiments.

Goswami, B. N.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A storyline analysis of Hurricane Irma’s precipitation under various levels of climate warming

Abstract Understanding how extreme weather, such as tropical cyclones, will change with future climate warming is an interesting computational challenge. Here, the hindcast approach is used to create different storylines of a particular tropical cyclone, Hurricane Irma (2017). Using the community atmosphere model, we explore how Irma’s precipitation would change under various levels of climate warming. Analysis is focused on a 48 h period where the simulated hurricane tracks reasonably represent Irma’s observed track. Under future scenarios of 2 K, 3 K, and 4 K global average surface temperature increase above pre-industrial levels, the mean 3-hourly rainfall rates in the simulated storms increase by 3–7% K −1 compared to present. This change increases in magnitude for the 95th and 99th percentile 3-hourly rates, which intensify by 10–13% K −1 and 17–21% K −1 , respectively. Over Florida, the simulated mean rainfall accumulations increase by 16–26% K −1 , with local maxima increasing by 18–43% K −1 . All percent changes increase monotonically with warming level.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reducing uncertainty of polar to midlatitude linkages using DOE’s E3SM in a coordinated model-experiment setting

This project brought DOE’s climate modeling effort with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model into the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), which is part of the sixth and latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6. PAMIP examines the causes and consequences of polar amplification, when external forcing results in a larger temperature increase in high latitudes than the global average, in a coordinated set of model experiments with a common modeling protocol. Our teams from UC Irvine and the University of Toronto have designed, carried out, analyzed, and disseminated PAMIP output from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM). PAMIP’s ongoing stream of significant new results have advanced progress in the community’s understanding and led to new outstanding research questions that have motivated further work. PAMIP has led to improved consensus on the atmospheric response to sea ice loss. The important finding is that for a similar sea ice anomaly forcing, the simulated atmospheric response in the troposphere is remarkably consistent among the 16 models’ runs analyzed. The zonal-mean tropospheric response consists of a very robust equatorward shift of the westerly flow in mid-latitudes. However, while the multi-model mean response is robust, it has a weak amplitude relative to internal variability. We identified a weakness in the models (including E3SM) in terms of their response to sea-ice forcing that is related to eddy forcing (or nonlinear dynamical effects) at mid- to high latitudes. In fact, E3SM is an outlier in terms of the models participating, and in that sense, it turned out to be a vital participant model. We found that reductions in energy transport due sea-ice loss and involving dry air only are compensated by increases in moist energy transport from warmer sea surface temperature in midlatitudes. This leads to a large spread in energy transport into the Arctic and is a potential source of spread in Arctic amplification. We identified an important role that climate modes, including tropical modes of variability (El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO)) play in the response to sea-ice anomalies, including in ocean coupled experiments. Similarly, we identified and quantified the contribution of sea-ice thickness to the atmospheric response compared to the response to sea-ice extent only. We found that it is important to run large ensembles and even with an ensemble size of 100 simulations the response is largely influenced by internal variability. We demonstrated convincingly that Ural blocking, not sea-ice loss, provides the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex in fall/early winter and a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation that can last for up to two months. However, sea-ice anomalies can influence the background flow so that the response to Ural blocking is more persistent under low sea-ice conditions in the Barents/Kara Sea than high sea ice Atmospheric model hierarchies that progressively add individual processes have a long history in providing dynamical insight for modeling the atmosphere. Similarly, coupled model hierarchies that progressively add individual ocean processes can provide insights into the workings of the coupled climate system, however such hierarchies have not been available except for a non-dynamical slab ocean model. Because of the missing processes, surface flux corrections must be added to produce a target climate. In this project, we managed to overcome this problem and develop a globally coupled ocean model hierarchy in CESM that can turn on and off the processes of mixed-layer entrainment and Ekman flow. We used the hierarchy to study the impact of Arctic sea-ice loss on the climate system. We find that the effect of mixed-layer entrainment on ocean heat uptake influences the atmospheric circulation by shifting the latitudinal positions of the mid-latitude westerly jet and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In quadrupled CO 2 experiments, we studied how air-sea coupling affects the response of tropical rainfall under global warming. In order to identify the importance of individual ocean processes, we used the hierarchy of ocean models to separate the effects of seasonal mixed-layer entrainment, wind-driven Ekman flows, and frictional flows. We showed that including Ekman and frictional flows allows our simulation to produce the Pacific Ocean's enhanced equatorial warming pattern and equatorward ITCZ contraction noted in previous climate simulations. We also showed that the frictional flow, which has yet to receive much attention, is as important as the Ekman flow in generating equatorial heat convergence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ship-based measurements of ice nuclei concentrations over the Arctic, Atlantic, Pacific and Southern oceans

Ambient concentrations of ice-forming particles measured during ship expeditions are collected and summarised with the aim of determining the spatial distribution and variability in ice nuclei in oceanic regions. The presented data from literature and previously unpublished data from over 23 months of ship-based measurements stretch from the Arctic to the Southern Ocean and include a circumnavigation of Antarctica. In comparison to continental observations, ship-based measurements of ambient ice nuclei show 1 to 2 orders of magnitude lower mean concentrations. To quantify the geographical variability in oceanic areas, the concentration range of potential ice nuclei in different climate zones is analysed by meridionally dividing the expedition tracks into tropical, temperate and polar climate zones. We find that concentrations of ice nuclei in these meridional zones follow temperature spectra with similar slopes but vary in absolute concentration. Typically, the frequency with which specific concentrations of ice nuclei are observed at a certain temperature follows a log-normal distribution. A consequence of the log-normal distribution is that the mean concentration is higher than the most frequently measured concentration. Finally, the potential contribution of ship exhaust to the measured ice nuclei concentration on board research vessels is analysed as function of temperature. We find a sharp onset of the influence at approximately -36 °C but none at warmer temperatures that could bias ship-based measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗