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At least 217 records · Page 12

Component Assessment of the Electric Transmission Grid to Hurricanes

The increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events from climate change necessitates understanding impacts on critical infrastructure, particularly electrical transmission grids. One of the foundational concepts of a grid's resilience is its robustness to extreme weather events, such as hurricanes. Resilience of the electric grid to high wind speeds is predicated upon the location and physical characteristics of the system components. Previous modeling assessments of electric grid failure were done at the systems level with assumptions on location and type of specific components. To facilitate more explicit adaptation metrics, accurate component-level information is needed. In this study, we build and utilize a data set of location, physical characteristics, and age of transmission structures for nine counties in the Florida Panhandle. These component characteristics were then simulated for failure under a variety of scenarios using fragility curves. Eight hurricanes were modeled using Hazus from the Federal Emergency Management Administration and the resulting impact to the network was assessed. The network was generated using the transmission lines and towers, showing increasing impacts to network efficiency with larger storms. Although modern transmission structures are built under the more stringent extreme wind loading construction standards, the prevalence of older, wooden transmission structures throughout the region poses a substantial risk to reliable electricity transmission during tropical cyclone events from the Gulf of Mexico.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Subtropical Jet Regulates Arabian Winter Precipitation: A Viable Mechanism

The present study explores the mechanism governing wintertime (November–April) precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula (AP) using a 17-yr-long (2002–18) high-resolution WRF simulation. The composite analysis of strong precipitation events suggests that the equatorward extension of the upper-level jet together with the embedded upper-level trough creates a positive (cyclonic) midlevel vorticity and subsequently generates an anomalous lower-level convergence through Ekman pumping. This leads to the development of an anomalous surface low, which is further enhanced in the presence of the existing Red Sea trough over the AP. This surface low weakens the persistent anticyclone over the AP, shifting it further eastward to the Arabian Sea. The eastward shift in the lower-level anticyclone contributes to the transport of warm, moist air from the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea toward the AP. This warm, moist air converges with the cold and dry air advected by the midlatitude jet and creates a moisture convergence zone, leading to the initiation of convection. We test the proposed mechanism through numerical experiments with modified upper-level wind and demonstrate that a strong, southward intrusion of the jet can indeed lead to precipitation over the AP. The above mechanism also explains the interannual variability of precipitation over the AP. During wet years, we notice approximately 3 m s -1 stronger jet core magnitude and about a 2° equatorward shift of the jet compared to dry years. While the equatorward extension of the jet explains about 21% of the interannual variability, the jet magnitude explains around 7% of the variability during wet years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Five-day track forecast skills of WRF model for the western North Pacific tropical cyclones

In this study, the characteristics of simulated tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific by a regional model (the WRF Model) are verified. We utilize 12-km horizontal grid spacing, and simulations are integrated for 5 days from model initialization. A total of 125 forecasts are divided into five clusters through the k-means clustering method. The TCs in the cluster 1 and 2 (group 1), which includes many TCs moving northward in the subtropical region, generally have larger track errors than for TCs in cluster 3 and 4 (group 2). The optimal steering vector is used to examine the difference in the track forecast skill between these two groups. The bias in the steering vector between the model and analysis data is found to be more substantial for group 1 TCs than group 2 TCs. The larger steering vector difference for group 1 TCs indicates that environmental fields tend to be poorly simulated in group 1 TC cases. Furthermore, the residual terms, including the storm-scale process, asymmetric convection distribution, or beta-related effect, are also larger for group 1 TCs than group 2 TCs. Therefore, it is probable that the large track forecast error for group 1 TCs is a result of unreasonable simulations of environmental wind fields and residual processes in the midlatitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating precipitation distributions at regional scales: a benchmarking framework and application to CMIP5 and 6 models

Abstract. As the resolution of global Earth system models increases, regional-scale evaluations are becoming ever more important. This study presents a framework for quantifying precipitation distributions at regional scales and applies it to evaluate Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) 5 and 6 models. We employ the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) sixth assessment report (AR6) climate reference regions over land and propose refinements to the oceanic regions based on the homogeneity of precipitation distribution characteristics. The homogeneous regions are identified as heavy-, moderate-, and light-precipitating areas by K-means clustering of Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) version 6 final run product (IMERG) precipitation frequency and amount distributions. With the global domain partitioned into 62 regions, including 46 land and 16 ocean regions, we apply 10 established precipitation distribution metrics. The collection includes metrics focused on the maximum peak, lower 10th percentile, and upper 90th percentile in precipitation amount and frequency distributions; the similarity between observed and modeled frequency distributions; an unevenness measure based on cumulative amount; average total intensity on all days with precipitation; and number of precipitating days each year. We apply our framework to 25 CMIP5 and 41 CMIP6 models, as well as six observation-based products of daily precipitation. Our results indicate that many CMIP5 and 6 models substantially overestimate the observed light-precipitation amount and frequency, as well as the number of precipitating days, especially over midlatitude regions outside of some land regions in the Americas and Eurasia. Improvement from CMIP5 to 6 is shown in some regions, especially in midlatitude regions, but it is not evident globally, and over the tropics most metrics point toward degradation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Intensifying tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea replenish depleting aquifers

Tropical cyclones intensified globally in recent decades, delivering extreme precipitation deeper inland. While much research has focused on the role of climate change in tropical cyclone intensification, less is known about their contribution to groundwater recharge, especially in arid regions where freshwater is scarce and aquifers are being depleted. Here we quantify cyclone-driven groundwater recharge across the Arabian Peninsula from 2002 to 2021 using satellite-based total water storage and hydrodynamic modeling. Findings show that cyclones contributed up to 60% of total precipitation in the southern Arabian Peninsula. Cyclone Mekunu (2018) alone delivered 30 km 3 of precipitation inland, resulting in a net groundwater recharge of 3.2 ± 1.2 km 3 in the Najd subbasin. These findings reveal that tropical cyclones play a crucial role in replenishing groundwater resources in arid regions. Our approach provides a framework for quantifying recharge in ungauged arid basins worldwide, offering valuable insights for climate-resilient water resource management.

Saleh, Hassan [Western Michigan Univ., Kalamazoo M↗

An Extratropical Pathway for the Madden–Julian Oscillation’s Influence on North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

Abstract This study investigates the combined impacts of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and extratropical anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking (AWB) on subseasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity and their physical connections. Our results show that during MJO phases 2–3 (enhanced Indian Ocean convection) and 6–7 (enhanced tropical Pacific convection), there are significant changes in basinwide TC activity. The MJO and AWB collaborate to suppress basinwide TC activity during phases 6–7 but not during phases 2–3. During phases 6–7, when AWB occurs, various TC metrics including hurricanes, accumulated cyclone energy, and rapid intensification probability decrease by ∼50%–80%. Simultaneously, large-scale environmental variables, like vertical wind shear, precipitable water, and sea surface temperatures become extremely unfavorable for TC formation and intensification, compared to periods characterized by suppressed AWB activity during the same MJO phases. Further investigation reveals that AWB events during phases 6–7 occur in concert with the development of a stronger anticyclone in the lower troposphere, which transports more dry, stable extratropical air equatorward, and drives enhanced tropical SST cooling. As a result, individual AWB events in phases 6–7 can disturb the development of surrounding TCs to a greater extent than their phases 2–3 counterparts. The influence of the MJO on AWB over the western subtropical Atlantic can be attributed to the modulation of the convectively forced Rossby wave source over the tropical eastern Pacific. A significant number of Rossby waves initiating from this region during phases 5–6 propagate into the subtropical North Atlantic, preceding the occurrence of AWB events in phases 6–7.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Satellite Observations of the Tropical Terrestrial Carbon Balance and Interactions With the Water Cycle During the 21st Century

A constellation of satellites are now in orbit providing information about terrestrial carbon and water storage and fluxes. These combined observations show that the tropical biosphere has changed significantly in the last two decades from the combined effects of climate variability and land use. Large areas of forest have been cleared in both wet and dry forests, increasing the source of carbon to the atmosphere. Concomitantly, tropical fire emissions have declined, at least until 2016, from changes in land-use practices and rainfall, increasing the net carbon sink. Measurements of carbon stocks and fluxes from disturbance and recovery and of vegetation photosynthesis show significant regional variability of net biosphere exchange (NBE) and gross primary productivity (GPP) across the tropics and are tied to seasonal and interannual changes in water fluxes and storage. Comparison of satellite based estimates of evapotranspiration (ET), photosynthesis, and the deuterium content of water vapor with patterns of total water storage and rainfall demonstrate the presence of vegetation-atmosphere interactions and feedback mechanisms across tropical forests. However, these observations of stocks, fluxes and inferred interactions between them do not point unambiguously to either positive or negative feedbacks in carbon and water exchanges. These ambiguities highlight the need for assimilation of these new measurements with Earth System models for a consistent assessment of process interactions, along with focused field campaigns that integrate ground, aircraft and satellite measurements, to quantify the controlling carbon and water processes and their feedback mechanisms.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Environmental drivers of spatial variation in tropical forest canopy height: Insights from NASA’s GEDI spaceborne LiDAR

Forest canopy height is a fundamental ecosystem property—influencing patterns of forest carbon storage and forest ecosystem responses to climate variability and change. Previous studies have analyzed environmental drivers influencing spatial variation in canopy height at landscape-to-regional scales; however, far less is known about the environmental determinants underlying regional and global scale variation in forest canopy height. Using the canopy height metrics products from Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI), a space-borne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) instrument specifically designed to characterize forest structure, we analyze the environmental correlates of spatial variation of global tropical forest canopy height. Our study demonstrates that climate, topography, and soil properties account for 75% of the variation in tropical forest canopy height. Elevation, dry season length, and solar radiation are the most important drivers in determining canopy height both locally and regionally. These results emphasize the vulnerability of tropical forest structure to ongoing changes in the earth’s climate and provide a valuable empirical baseline for tropical forest management.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Amplified risk of spatially compounding droughts during co-occurrences of modes of natural ocean variability

Abstract Spatially compounding droughts over multiple regions pose amplifying pressures on the global food system, the reinsurance industry, and the global economy. Using observations and climate model simulations, we analyze the influence of various natural Ocean variability modes on the likelihood, extent, and severity of compound droughts across ten regions that have similar precipitation seasonality and cover important breadbaskets and vulnerable populations. Although a majority of compound droughts are associated with El Niños, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, and cold phases of the Atlantic Niño and Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) can substantially modulate their characteristics. Cold TNA conditions have the largest amplifying effect on El Niño-related compound droughts. While the probability of compound droughts is ~3 times higher during El Niño conditions relative to neutral conditions, it is ~7 times higher when cold TNA and El Niño conditions co-occur. The probability of widespread and severe compound droughts is also amplified by a factor of ~3 and ~2.5 during these co-occurring modes relative to El Niño conditions alone. Our analysis demonstrates that co-occurrences of these modes result in widespread precipitation deficits across the tropics by inducing anomalous subsidence, and reducing lower-level moisture convergence over the study regions. Our results emphasize the need for considering interactions within the larger climate system in characterizing compound drought risks rather than focusing on teleconnections from individual modes. Understanding the physical drivers and characteristics of compound droughts has important implications for predicting their occurrence and characterizing their impacts on interconnected societal systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global Microphysical Sensitivity of Superparameterized Precipitation Extremes

Abstract A recent study found statistically significant differences in extreme precipitation distributions over the contiguous United States (CONUS) when changing the microphysics scheme in a superparameterized global climate model. Here, we repeat the analysis globally and similarly find that differences are widespread when varying the number of predicted moments in the microphysics parameterization, but not when comparing variants of the double‐moment scheme. However, contrary to the previous study in which differences largely disappeared over CONUS when 5‐day simulations were conducted, we found that the signal in these shorter integrations remains within the tropics, implying a direct local effect of microphysics on precipitation extremes in these regions. The effect on precipitation is traced back to changes in vertical velocity profiles changes that are then amplified in the climatological simulations compared to the 5‐day ones. Finally, the superparameterized extremes, regardless of the microphysics scheme, are shown to be larger than those from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project One‐Degree Daily data set and generally smaller than those from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 data set.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantifying the Effect of Climate Change on Midlatitude Subseasonal Prediction Skill Provided by the Tropics

Abstract Subseasonal timescales (∼2 weeks–2 months) are known for their lack of predictability, however, specific Earth system states known to have a strong influence on these timescales can be harnessed to improve prediction skill (known as “forecasts of opportunity”). As the climate continues warming, it is hypothesized these states may change and consequently, their importance for subseasonal prediction may also be impacted. Here, we examine changes to midlatitude subseasonal prediction skill provided by the tropics under anthropogenic warming using artificial neural networks to quantify skill. The network is tasked to predict the sign of the 500 hPa geopotential height for historical and future time periods in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 ‐ Large Ensemble across the Northern Hemisphere at a 3 week lead using tropical precipitation. We show prediction skill changes substantially in key midlatitude regions and these changes appear linked to changes in seasonal variability with the largest differences in accuracy occurring during forecasts of opportunity.

Mayer, Kirsten J.↗

Explainable deep learning for insights in El Niño and river flows

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a semi-periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (SST) over the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean that influences interannual variability in regional hydrology across the world through long-range dependence or teleconnections. Recent research has demonstrated the value of Deep Learning (DL) methods for improving ENSO prediction as well as Complex Networks (CN) for understanding teleconnections. However, gaps in predictive understanding of ENSO-driven river flows include the black box nature of DL, the use of simple ENSO indices to describe a complex phenomenon and translating DL-based ENSO predictions to river flow predictions. Here we show that eXplainable DL (XDL) methods, based on saliency maps, can extract interpretable predictive information contained in global SST and discover SST information regions and dependence structures relevant for river flows which, in tandem with climate network constructions, enable improved predictive understanding. Our results reveal additional information content in global SST beyond ENSO indices, develop understanding of how SSTs influence river flows, and generate improved river flow prediction, including uncertainty estimation. Observations, reanalysis data, and earth system model simulations are used to demonstrate the value of the XDL-CN based methods for future interannual and decadal scale climate projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding Changes in Cloud Simulations from E3SM Version 1 to Version 2

This study documents clouds simulated by the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2 (E3SMv2) and attempts to understand what causes the model behavior change in clouds relative to E3SMv1. This is done by analyzing the last 30-year (1985–2014) data from the 165-year historical simulations using E3SMv1 and v2 and four sensitivity tests to isolate the impact of changes in model parameter choices in its turbulence, shallow convection, and cloud macrophysics parameterization (CLUBB), microphysical parameterization (MG2), and deep convection scheme (ZM), as well as model physics changes in convective triggering. It is shown that E3SMv2 significantly improves the simulation of subtropical coastal stratocumulus clouds (Sc) and clouds with optical depth larger than 3.6 over the stratocumulus to cumulus transition regimes, where Shortwave Cloud Radiative Effect (SWCRE) is also improved, and the Southern Ocean (SO) while seeing an overall slight degradation in low clouds over other tropical and subtropical oceans. The better performance in E3SMv1 over those regions is partially due to error compensation between its simulated optically thin and intermediate low clouds for which E3SMv2 actually improves simulation of optically intermediate low clouds. Sensitivity tests indicate that the changes in low clouds are primarily due to the tuning made in CLUBB. The impact of the ZM tuning is mainly on optically intermediate and thick high clouds, contributing to improved SWCRE and Longwave Cloud Radiative Effect (LWCRE). The impact of the MG2 tuning and the new convective trigger is primarily on the high latitudes and the Southern Ocean (SO). They have a relatively smaller impact on clouds than do the CLUBB and ZM tunings. This study offers additional insights about clouds simulated in E3SMv2 by utilizing multiple data sets and the COSP diagnostic tool as well as through sensitivity tests. The improved understanding will benefit the future E3SM developments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding changes in cloud simulations from E3SM version 1 to version 2

Abstract. This study documents clouds simulated by the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2 (E3SMv2) and attempts to understand what causes the model behavior change in clouds relative to E3SMv1. This is done by analyzing the last 30-year (1985–2014) data from the 165-year historical simulations using E3SMv1 and v2 and four sensitivity tests to isolate the impact of changes in model parameter choices in its turbulence, shallow convection, and cloud macrophysics parameterization (Cloud Layers Unified By Binormals, CLUBB); microphysical parameterization (MG2); and deep-convection scheme (ZM), as well as model physics changes in convective triggering. It is shown that E3SMv2 significantly improves the simulation of subtropical coastal stratocumulus clouds and clouds with optical depth larger than 3.6 over the stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition regimes, where the shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) is also improved, and the Southern Ocean (SO) while seeing an overall slight degradation in low clouds over other tropical and subtropical oceans. The better performance in E3SMv1 over those regions is partially due to error compensation between its simulated optically thin and intermediate low clouds for which E3SMv2 actually improves simulation of optically intermediate low clouds. Sensitivity tests indicate that the changes in low clouds are primarily due to the tuning done in CLUBB. The impact of the ZM tuning is mainly on optically intermediate and thick high clouds, contributing to an improved SWCRE and longwave cloud radiative effect (LWCRE). The impact of the MG2 tuning and the new convective trigger is primarily on the high latitudes and the SO. They have a relatively smaller impact on clouds than CLUBB tuning and ZM tuning do. This study offers additional insights into clouds simulated in E3SMv2 by utilizing multiple data sets and the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package (COSP) diagnostic tool as well as sensitivity tests. The improved understanding will benefit future E3SM developments.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Emergence of decadal linkage between Western Australian coast and Western–central tropical Pacific

Abstract The impact of interbasin linkage on the weather/climate and ecosystems is significantly broader and profounder than that of only appearing in an individual basin. Here, we reveal that a decadal linkage of sea surface temperature (SST) has emerged between western Australian coast and western–central tropical Pacific since 1985, associated with continuous intensification of decadal variabilities (8–16 years). The rapid SST changes in both tropical Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific warm pool in association to greenhouse gases and volcanoes are emerging factors resulting in enhanced decadal co-variabilities between these two regions since 1985. These SST changes induce enhanced convection variability over the Maritime Continent, leading to stronger easterlies in the western–central tropical Pacific during the warm phase off western Australian coast. The above changes bring about cooling in the western–central tropical Pacific and strengthened Leeuwin Current and anomalous cyclonic wind off western Australian coast, and ultimately resulting in enhanced coupling between these two regions. Our results suggest that enhanced decadal interbasin connections can offer further understanding of decadal changes under future warmer conditions.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

The potential role of organics in new particle formation and initial growth in the remote tropical upper troposphere

Abstract. Global observations and model studies indicate that new particle formation (NPF) in the upper troposphere (UT) and subsequent particles supply 40 %–60 % of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in the lower troposphere, thus affecting the Earth's radiative budget. There are several plausible nucleation mechanisms and precursor species in this atmospheric region, which, in the absence of observational constraints, lead to uncertainties in modeled aerosols. In particular, the type of nucleation mechanism and concentrations of nucleation precursors, in part, determine the spatial distribution of new particles and resulting spatial distribution of CCN from this source. Although substantial advances in understanding NPF have been made in recent years, NPF processes in the UT in pristine marine regions are still poorly understood and are inadequately represented in global models. Here, we evaluate commonly used and state-of-the-art NPF schemes in a Lagrangian box model to assess which schemes and precursor concentrations best reproduce detailed in situ observations. Using measurements of aerosol size distributions (0.003 < Dp < 4.8 µm) in the remote marine troposphere between ∼0.18 and 13 km altitude obtained during the NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission, we show that high concentrations of newly formed particles in the tropical UT over both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans are associated with outflow regions of deep convective clouds. We focus analysis on observations over the remote Pacific Ocean, which is a region less perturbed by continental emissions than the Atlantic. Comparing aerosol size distribution measurements over the remote Pacific with box model simulations for 32 cases shows that none of the NPF schemes most commonly used in global models, including binary nucleation of sulfuric acid and water (neutral and ion-assisted) and ternary involving sulfuric acid, water, and ammonia, are consistent with observations, regardless of precursor concentrations. Through sensitivity studies, we find that the nucleation scheme among those tested that is able to explain most consistently (21 of 32 cases) the observed size distributions is that of Riccobono et al. (2014), which involves both organic species and sulfuric acid. The method of Dunne et al. (2016), involving charged sulfuric acid–water–ammonia nucleation, when coupled with organic growth of the nucleated particles, was most consistent with the observations for 5 of 32 cases. Similarly, the neutral sulfuric acid–water–ammonia method of Napari (2002), when scaled with a tuning factor and with organic growth added, was most consistent for 6 of 32 cases. We find that to best reproduce both nucleation and growth rates, the mixing ratios of gas-phase organic precursors generally need to be at least twice that of SO2, a proxy for dimethyl sulfide (DMS). Unfortunately, we have no information on the nature of oxidized organic species that participated in NPF in this region. Global models rarely include organic-driven nucleation and growth pathways in UT conditions where globally significant NPF takes place, which may result in poor estimates of NPF and CCN abundance and contribute to uncertainties in aerosol–cloud–radiation effects. Furthermore, our results indicate that the organic aerosol precursor vapors may be important in the tropical UT above marine regions, a finding that should guide future observational efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using Large Ensembles to Identify Regions of Systematic Biases in Moderate-to-Heavy Daily Precipitation

Because of internal variability in both the real-world and global climate models, it is unclear whether disagreement between models and observations reflects true systematic differences, or different phasing of internal variability in the short observational period. Here, we address this issue through an examination of moderate-to-heavy precipitation in large ensembles of global climate models. We find that model inconsistency with a global observational product is lowest for extratropical precipitation in northern hemisphere winter. The inconsistency is systematically greater for the southern hemisphere winter, but the difference between hemispheres could be due to observational quality. Moderate-to-heavy extratropical winter precipitation is less inconsistent than moderate-to-heavy tropical precipitation in most models. Within the tropics, moderate-to-heavy precipitation is particularly inconsistent with the reference in regions including the Caribbean (especially during JJA), the northern and southern flanks of the Pacific and Atlantic ITCZ, and the Indian Ocean.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Zonal Patterns in Late Quaternary Tropical South American Precipitation

Speleothem oxygen isotope records (δ 18 O) of tropical South American rainfall in the late Quaternary show a zonal “South American Precipitation Dipole” (SAPD). The dipole is characterized by opposing east-west precipitation anomalies compared to the present—wetter in the east and drier in the west at the mid-Holocene (~7 ka), and drier in the east and wetter in the west at the Last Glacial Maximum (~21 ka). However, the SAPD remains enigmatic because it is expressed differently in western versus eastern δ18O records and isotope-enabled climate model simulations usually misrepresent the magnitude and/or spatial pattern of δ 18 O change. Here, we address the SAPD enigma in two parts. First, we re-interpret the δ 18 O data to account for upwind rainout effects that are known to be pervasive in tropical South America, but are not always considered in Quaternary paleoclimate studies. Our revised interpretation reconciles the δ 18 O data with cave infiltration and other proxy records, and indicates that the centroid of tropical South American rainfall has migrated zonally over time. Second, using an energy balance model of tropical atmospheric circulation, we hypothesize that zonal migration of the precipitation centroid can be explained by regional energy budget shifts, such as changing Saharan albedo associated with the African Humid Period, that have not been modeled in previous SAPD studies. This hypothesis of a migrating precipitation centroid presents a new framework for interpreting δ18O records from tropical South America and may help explain the zonal rainfall anomalies that predate the late Quaternary.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗