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At least 217 records · Page 12

Monte Carlo prediction of radiative heat transfer in inhomogeneous, anisotropic, nongray media

A Monte Carlo solution technique has been formulated to predict the radiative heat transfer in three-dimensional, inhomogeneous participating media which exhibit spectrally dependent emission and absorption and anisotropic scattering. Details of the technique and selected numerical sensitivities are discussed. The technique was applied to a problem involving a medium composed of a gas mixture of carbon dioxide and nitrogen and suspended carbon particles. A homogeneous medium was modeled to examine the effect of total pressure and carbon-particle concentration on radiative heat transfer. Variation in total pressure, over the range studied, had minimal effect on the amount of heat radiated to the enclosure walls and on the radiative-flux distribution within the medium. Increases in the carbon particle concentration produced significantly higher heat fluxes at the boundaries and altered the radiative flux distribution. The technique was then applied to an inhomogeneous medium to examine effects of specific temperature and carbon particle concentration distributions on radiative heat transfer. For the inhomogeneous conditions examined, the largest radiative flux divergence occurs near the center of the medium and the regions near some enclosure walls act as energy sinks.

HEAT FLUXES↗

Angle-of-Attack-Modulated Terminal Point Control for Neptune Aerocapture

An aerocapture guidance algorithm based on a calculus of variations approach is developed, using angle of attack as the primary control variable. Bank angle is used as a secondary control to alleviate angle of attack extremes and to control inclination. The guidance equations are derived in detail. The controller has very small onboard computational requirements and is robust to atmospheric and aerodynamic dispersions. The algorithm is applied to aerocapture at Neptune. Three versions of the controller are considered with varying angle of attack authority. The three versions of the controller are evaluated using Monte Carlo simulations with expected dispersions.

Queen, Eric M.↗

Degree and plane of polarization of multiple scattered light. 2: Earth's atmosphere with aerosols

The degree of polarization, as well as the direction of the plane of polarization, were calculated by a Monte Carlo method for the reflected and transmitted photons from the earth's atmosphere. The solar photons were observed during multiple collisions with aerosols and the Rayleigh scattering centers in the atmosphere. The aerosol number density, as well as the ratio of aerosol to Rayleigh scattering, varies with height. The proportion of aerosol to Rayleigh scattering was appropriately chosen at each wavelength 0.4 microns and 0.7 microns; ozone absorption was included where appropriate. Three different aerosol number densities were used to study the effects of aerosol variations. Results are given for a solar zenith angle of 81.37 deg and a surface albedo of zero. The polarization of the reflected and transmitted photons was found to be sensitive to the amount of aerosols in the atmosphere at certain angles of observation.

Plass, G. N.↗

Monte Carlo simulation of lunar megaregolith and implications

A realistic Monte Carlo model closely simulating the evolution of the lunar megaregolith over a large area of 67 million sq. km of the front surface of the moon is presented. Craters larger than 100 km in diameter observed over the entire surface of the moon and those less than 100 km lying in the referenced area are included in the simulation. A total of 21,664 craters are processed. The model predicts the average thickness of the megaregolith to be about 1.9-2.0 km. Curves for the variation of the regolith thickness across the simulated area are given and show that about 50% of the area is covered with regolith less than 1 km thick. The model produces crater structures similar to the ones observed in the lunar highlands, it partially supports the layering theory for crater structures that the variations in strength and density of target materials may be responsible for the observed differences in the morphologies of lunar craters, and rules out the possibility that all craters when formed are bowl-shaped with a fixed depth/diameter ratio characteristic of small craters.

Aggarwal, H. R.↗

The OH distribution in cometary atmospheres - A collisional Monte Carlo model for heavy species

The study presents an extension of the cometary atmosphere Monte Carlo particle trajectory model formalism which makes it both physically correct for heavy species and yet computationally reasonable. The derivation accounts for the collision path and scattering redirection of a heavy radical traveling through a fluid coma with a given radial distribution in outflow speed and temperature. The revised model verifies that the earlier fast-H atom approximations used in earlier work are valid, and it is applied to a case where the heavy radical formalism is necessary: the OH distribution. It is found that a steeper variation of water production rate with heliocentric distance is required for a water coma which is consistent with the velocity-resolved observations of Comet P/Halley.

Combi, Michael R.↗

Variations in Modeled Dengue Transmission over Puerto Rico Using a Climate Driven Dynamic Model

Dengue fever is a mosquito‐borne viral disease reemerging throughout much of the tropical Americas. Dengue virus transmission is explicitly influenced by climate and the environment through its primary vector, Aedes aegypti. Temperature regulates Ae. aegypti development, survival, and replication rates as well as the incubation period of the virus within the mosquito. Precipitation provides water for many of the preferred breeding habitats of the mosquito, including buckets, old tires, and other places water can collect. Because of variations in topography, ocean influences and atmospheric processes, temperature and rainfall patterns vary across Puerto Rico and so do dengue virus transmission rates. Using NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite for precipitation input, ground‐based observations for temperature input, and laboratory confirmed dengue cases reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for parameter calibration, we modeled dengue transmission at the county level across Puerto Rico from 2010‐2013 using a dynamic dengue transmission model that includes interacting vector ecology and epidemiological components. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we performed ensembles of several thousands of model simulations for each county in order to resolve the model uncertainty arising from using different combinations of parameter values that are not well known. The top 1% of model simulations that best reproduced the reported dengue case data were then analyzed to determine the most important parameters for dengue virus transmission in each county, as well as the relative influence of climate variability on transmission. These results can be used by public health workers to implement dengue control methods that are targeted for specific locations and climate conditions.

Morin, Cory↗

Statistics and topology of the COBE differential microwave radiometer first-year sky maps

We use statistical and topological quantities to test the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) Differential Microwave Radiometer (DMR) first-year sky maps against the hypothesis that the observed temperature fluctuations reflect Gaussian initial density perturbations with random phases. Recent papers discuss specific quantities as discriminators between Gaussian and non-Gaussian behavior, but the treatment of instrumental noise on the data is largely ignored. The presence of noise in the data biases many statistical quantities in a manner dependent on both the noise properties and the unknown cosmic microwave background temperature field. Appropriate weighting schemes can minimize this effect, but it cannot be completely eliminated. Analytic expressions are presented for these biases, and Monte Carlo simulations are used to assess the best strategy for determining cosmologically interesting information from noisy data. The genus is a robust discriminator that can be used to estimate the power-law quadrupole-normalized amplitude, Q(sub rms-PS), independently of the two-point correlation function. The genus of the DMR data is consistent with Gaussian initial fluctuations with Q(sub rms-PS) = (15.7 +/- 2.2) - (6.6 +/- 0.3)(n - 1) micro-K, where n is the power-law index. Fitting the rms temperature variations at various smoothing angles gives Q(sub rms-PS) = 13.2 +/- 2.5 micro-K and n = 1.7(sup (+0.3) sub (-0.6)). While consistent with Gaussian fluctuations, the first year data are only sufficient to rule out strongly non-Gaussian distributions of fluctuations.

Smoot, G. F.↗

Predictable Patterns in Planetary Transit Timing Variations and Transit Duration Variations Due to Exomoons

We present new ways to identify single and multiple moons around extrasolar planets using planetary transit timing variations (TTVs) and transit duration variations (TDVs). For planets with one moon, measurements from successive transits exhibit a hitherto undescribed pattern in the TTV-TDV diagram, originating from the stroboscopic sampling of the planet's orbit around the planet-moon barycenter. This pattern is fully determined and analytically predictable after three consecutive transits. The more measurements become available, the more the TTV-TDV diagram approaches an ellipse. For planets with multiple moons in orbital mean motion resonance (MMR), like the Galilean moon system, the pattern is much more complex and addressed numerically in this report. Exomoons in MMR can also form closed, predictable TTV-TDV figures, as long as the drift of the moons' pericenters is suciently slow.We find that MMR exomoons produce loops in the TTV-TDV diagram and that the number of these loops is equal to the order of the MMR, or the largest integer in the MMR ratio.We use a Bayesian model and Monte Carlo simulations to test the discoverability of exomoons using TTV-TDV diagrams with current and near-future technology. In a blind test, two of us (BP, DA) successfully retrieved a large moon from simulated TTV-TDV by co-authors MH and RH, which resembled data from a known Kepler planet candidate. Single exomoons with a 10 percent moon-to-planet mass ratio, like to Pluto-Charon binary, can be detectable in the archival data of the Kepler primary mission. Multi-exomoon systems, however, require either larger telescopes or brighter target stars. Complementary detection methods invoking a moon's own photometric transit or its orbital sampling effect can be used for validation or falsification. A combination of TESS, CHEOPS, and PLATO data would offer a compelling opportunity for an exomoon discovery around a bright star.

stroboscopic sampling↗

Theoretical development of Monte Carlo codes for modeling cumulus cloud fields

Reflected fluxes are calculated for stratocumulus cloud fields as a function of skycover, cloud aspect ratio, and cloud shape. Cloud liquid water volume is held invariant as cloud shape is varied so that the results can be utilized more effectively by general circulation models and climate models. On the basis of required accuracy in the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment program, an order of magnitude value of 10 W/sq m is used to estimate significant differences between plane parallel and broken cloudiness. This limit is exceeded for cloud covers between 10% and 90%, indicating that plane paralel calculations are not satisfactory at most values of cloud cover. The choice of cloud shape also leads to large differences in reflected fluxes. These differences are traced to the anisotropic intensity pattern out the cloud sides, to the size and shape of the holes between clouds, and to variations in cloud area as viewed from the solar direction. An empirical relationship for effective cloud cover is given at solar zenith angle of theta = 60 deg. This relationship allows for the relatively accurate (delta F = 10 - 15 W/sq m.) computation of broken cloud field reflected fluxes from plane parallel calculations.

Welch, R. M.↗

Regional and seasonal estimates of fractional storm coverage based on station precipitation observations

Simulated climates using numerical atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been shown to be highly sensitive to the fraction of GCM grid area assumed to be wetted during rain events. The model hydrologic cycle and land-surface water and energy balance are influenced by the parameter bar-kappa, which is the dimensionless fractional wetted area for GCM grids. Hourly precipitation records for over 1700 precipitation stations within the contiguous United States are used to obtain observation-based estimates of fractional wetting that exhibit regional and seasonal variations. The spatial parameter bar-kappa is estimated from the temporal raingauge data using conditional probability relations. Monthly bar-kappa values are estimated for rectangular grid areas over the contiguous United States as defined by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies 4 deg x 5 deg GCM. A bias in the estimates is evident due to the unavoidably sparse raingauge network density, which causes some storms to go undetected by the network. This bias is corrected by deriving the probability of a storm escaping detection by the network. A Monte Carlo simulation study is also conducted that consists of synthetically generated storm arrivals over an artificial grid area. It is used to confirm the bar-kappa estimation procedure and to test the nature of the bias and its correction. These monthly fractional wetting estimates, based on the analysis of station precipitation data, provide an observational basis for assigning the influential parameter bar-kappa in GCM land-surface hydrology parameterizations.

Gong, Gavin↗

DSMC calculations for the double ellipse

The direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method involves the simultaneous computation of the trajectories of thousands of simulated molecules in simulated physical space. Rarefied flow about the double ellipse for test case 6.4.1 has been calculated with the DSMC method of Bird. The gas is assumed to be nonreacting nitrogen flowing at a 30 degree incidence with respect to the body axis, and for the surface boundary conditions, the wall is assumed to be diffuse with full thermal accommodation and at a constant wall temperature of 620 K. A parametric study is presented that considers the effect of variations of computational domain, gas model, cell size, and freestream density on surface quantities.

Moss, James N.↗

Development of an Uncertainty Model for the National Transonic Facility

This paper introduces an uncertainty model being developed for the National Transonic Facility (NTF). The model uses a Monte Carlo technique to propagate standard uncertainties of measured values through the NTF data reduction equations to calculate the combined uncertainties of the key aerodynamic force and moment coefficients and freestream properties. The uncertainty propagation approach to assessing data variability is compared with ongoing data quality assessment activities at the NTF, notably check standard testing using statistical process control (SPC) techniques. It is shown that the two approaches are complementary and both are necessary tools for data quality assessment and improvement activities. The SPC approach is the final arbiter of variability in a facility. Its result encompasses variation due to people, processes, test equipment, and test article. The uncertainty propagation approach is limited mainly to the data reduction process. However, it is useful because it helps to assess the causes of variability seen in the data and consequently provides a basis for improvement. For example, it is shown that Mach number random uncertainty is dominated by static pressure variation over most of the dynamic pressure range tested. However, the random uncertainty in the drag coefficient is generally dominated by axial and normal force uncertainty with much less contribution from freestream conditions.

Walter, Joel A.↗

Helioseismic Observations of the Structure and Dynamics of a Rotating Sunspot Beneath the Solar Surface

Time-distance helioseismology is applied to study the subphotospheric structures and dynamics of an unusually fast-rotating sunspot observed by the Michelson Doppler Imager on bead SOH0 in 2000 August. The subsurface sound speed structures and velocity fields are obtained for the sunspot region at different depths from 0 to 12 Mm. By comparing the subsurface sound speed variations with the surface magnetic field, we find evidence for structural twists beneath the visible surface of this active region, which may indicate that magnetic twists often seen at the photosphere also exist beneath the photosphere. We also report on the observation of subsurface horizontal vortical flows that extend to a depth of 5 Mm around this rotating sunspot and present evidence that opposite vortical flows may exist below 9 Mm. It is suggested that the vortical flows around this active region may build up a significant amount of magnetic helicity and energy to power solar eruptions. Monte Carlo simulation has been performed to estimate the error propagation, and in addition the sunspot umbra is masked to test the reliability of our inversion results. On the basis of the three-dimensional velocity fields obtained from the time-distance helioseismology inversions, we estimate the subsurface kinetic helicity at different depths for the first time and conclude that it is comparable to the current helicity estimated from vector magnetograms.

Zhao, Junwei↗

Aerocapture Trajectory Design for Uranus Orbiter

Introduction: The recently released National Academies Planetary Science and Astrobiology Decadal Survey 2023-2032 [1] identified the Ice Giants as the top priority science destination. While the survey acknowledged the potential for either a Uranus Orbiter and Probe (UOP) mission or a Neptune-Triton Odyssey mission, it ultimately identified the former as the highest priority new flagship mission. UOP missions calls for a launch window of opportunity between 2031-2038 with 12-15 year interplanetary cruise time along with a fully-propulsive Uranus Orbit Insertion burn on the order of a few km/s. However, a mission to Uranus with the same science payload could utilize aerocapture for orbit insertion to achieve both a significant reduction in the interplanetary cruise time and reduction in propulsive burn costs. Why Aerocapture: Aerocapture is a promising propellant and time-saving orbital insertion technique for planetary destinations with an atmosphere. Although not flight-proven, previous aerocapture systems studies in the literature have demonstrated both the validity and robustness of the technique at various planetary destinations. With respect to the Ice Giant planets, Neptune has seen more of the analysis in the literature. For science missions at Neptune, aerocapture can enable 1.4 times more delivered mass to orbit than an all-propulsive mission for the same launch vehicle while reducing interplanetary cruise times by more than 3 years [2] Additionally with modern guidance and control, Neptune aerocapture with blunt-body aeroshells is realizable [3][4]. There are limited papers in the literature investigating Uranus aerocapture with those available providing a preliminary feasibility assessment [5]. Consequently, the two-year funded NASA Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD)-funded project, titled Aerocapture System as an Enabling Technology for Ice Giants Missions, aims to mature the analysis and technology state of Uranus aerocapture. Trajectory Design: This paper presents the current state of the trajectory design in support of the new aerocapture project. The project design philosophy is inspired from recent Neptune aerocapture studies, which employed modern guidance and control, in the sense that blunt-body aeroshells are analyzed. An assessment of the theoretical flight path angle corridor width is conducted for a range of ballistic coefficients and lift-to-drag ratios for both Space Launch System and Falcon Heavy Launch Vehicle interplanetary trajectory solutions. The results from the corridor width assessment provide an assessment of the aerocapture design-space and qualitative metrics on trajectory design considerations. The Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) is utilized to run Monte Carlo simulations of Uranus aerocapture three-degree-of-freedom bank angle modulated trajectories using a closed-loop numerical-predictor corrector guidance algorithm. UranusGRAM 2021 is utilized as the atmospheric model [6]. A Uranus-developed aerodatabase, originally derived from Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), is utilized to provide vehicle aerodynamics over a wide range of hypersonic flow regimes. A MSL-derived 70 deg 4.5m diameter sphere-cone aeroshell that houses the UOP payload mass is assumed. Robustness testing and performance analysis is conducted, including the assessment of entry state errors, atmosphere density variations, and aerodynamic dispersions. Post-aerocapture Delta-V and aerothermal statistics are formulated into propellant mass and TPS requirements. The results presented in the paper will demonstrate the trajectory viability of Uranus aerocapture. Preliminary Results: Preliminary trajectory design results indicates successful Uranus aerocapture with a blunt-body aeroshell housing the same payload mass as the UOP mission from an Earth-to-Uranus interplanetary trajectory arriving in less than 7 years. From this interplanetary trajectory, aerocapture provides an orbit insertion Delta-V capability of 6.9 km/s requiring less than 300 m/s for post-aerocapture correction burns (15% of wet mass allocated to propellant). To put this into perspective, the UOP study utilized an Earth-to-Uranus trajectory that arrives in 13 years and requires more than 1000 m/s for fully-propulsive orbit insertion (40% of wet mass allocated to propellant). Achieving the same 6.9 km/s Delta-V capability fully-propulsively is mass prohibitive (97% of wet mass allocated to propellant). Nevertheless, aerocapture has the potential to reduce interplanetary transit times to Uranus by half while delivering the same payload mass to orbit in a reduced propellant mass footprint.

Rohan Deshmukh↗

Recursive Branching Simulated Annealing Algorithm

This innovation is a variation of a simulated-annealing optimization algorithm that uses a recursive-branching structure to parallelize the search of a parameter space for the globally optimal solution to an objective. The algorithm has been demonstrated to be more effective at searching a parameter space than traditional simulated-annealing methods for a particular problem of interest, and it can readily be applied to a wide variety of optimization problems, including those with a parameter space having both discrete-value parameters (combinatorial) and continuous-variable parameters. It can take the place of a conventional simulated- annealing, Monte-Carlo, or random- walk algorithm. In a conventional simulated-annealing (SA) algorithm, a starting configuration is randomly selected within the parameter space. The algorithm randomly selects another configuration from the parameter space and evaluates the objective function for that configuration. If the objective function value is better than the previous value, the new configuration is adopted as the new point of interest in the parameter space. If the objective function value is worse than the previous value, the new configuration may be adopted, with a probability determined by a temperature parameter, used in analogy to annealing in metals. As the optimization continues, the region of the parameter space from which new configurations can be selected shrinks, and in conjunction with lowering the annealing temperature (and thus lowering the probability for adopting configurations in parameter space with worse objective functions), the algorithm can converge on the globally optimal configuration. The Recursive Branching Simulated Annealing (RBSA) algorithm shares some features with the SA algorithm, notably including the basic principles that a starting configuration is randomly selected from within the parameter space, the algorithm tests other configurations with the goal of finding the globally optimal solution, and the region from which new configurations can be selected shrinks as the search continues. The key difference between these algorithms is that in the SA algorithm, a single path, or trajectory, is taken in parameter space, from the starting point to the globally optimal solution, while in the RBSA algorithm, many trajectories are taken; by exploring multiple regions of the parameter space simultaneously, the algorithm has been shown to converge on the globally optimal solution about an order of magnitude faster than when using conventional algorithms. Novel features of the RBSA algorithm include: 1. More efficient searching of the parameter space due to the branching structure, in which multiple random configurations are generated and multiple promising regions of the parameter space are explored; 2. The implementation of a trust region for each parameter in the parameter space, which provides a natural way of enforcing upper- and lower-bound constraints on the parameters; and 3. The optional use of a constrained gradient- search optimization, performed on the continuous variables around each branch s configuration in parameter space to improve search efficiency by allowing for fast fine-tuning of the continuous variables within the trust region at that configuration point.

Bolcar, Matthew↗

Mercury's Seasonal Sodium Exosphere: MESSENGER Orbital Observations

The Mercury Atmospheric and Surface Composition Spectrometer (MASCS) Ultraviolet and Visible Spectrometer (UVVS) on the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft now orbiting Mercury provides the first close-up look at the planet's sodium exosphere. UVVS has observed the exosphere from orbit almost daily for over 10 Mercury years. In this paper we describe and analyze a subset of these data: altitude profiles taken above the low-latitude dayside and south pole. The observations show spatial and temporal variation but there is little or no year-to-year variation; we do not see the episodic variability reported by ground-based observers. We used these altitude profiles to make estimates of sodium density and temperature. The bulk of the exosphere is about 1200 K, much warmer than Mercury's surface. This value is consistent with some ground-based measurements and suggests that photon-stimulated desorption is the primary ejection process. We also observe a tenuous energetic component but do not see evidence of the predicted thermalized (or partially thermalized) sodium near Mercury's surface temperature. Overall we do not see the variable mixture of temperatures predicted by most Monte Carlo models of the exosphere.

Exosphere↗

Polarimetric thermal emission from rough surfaces

Recent theoretical works have suggested the potential of passive polarimetry in the remote sensing of geophysical media. It was shown that the third Stokes parameter U of the thermal emission may become larger for azimuthally asymmetric fields of observation. In order to investigate the potential applicability of passive polarimetry to the remote sensing of ocean surface, measurements of the polarimetric thermal emission from a sinusoidal water surface and a numerical study of the polarimetric thermal emission from randomly rough ocean surfaces were performed. Measurements of sinusoidal water surface thermal emission were performed using a sinusoidal water surface which was created by placing a thin sheet of fiberglass with a sinusoidal profile in two dimensions extended infinitely in the third dimension onto a water surface. The theory of thermal emission from a 'two-layer' periodic surface is derived and the exact solution is performed using both the extended boundary condition method (EBC) and the method of moments (MOM). The theoretical predictions are found to be in good agreement with the experimental results once the effects of the radiometer antenna pattern are included and the contribution of background noise to the measurements is modeled. The experimental results show that the U parameter indicates the direction of periodicity of the water surface and can approach values of up to 30 K for the surface observed. Next, a numerical study of polarimetric thermal emission from randomly rough surfaces was performed. A Monte Carlo technique utilizing an exact method for calculating thermal emission was chosen for the study to avoid any of the limitations of the commonly used approximate methods in rough surface scattering. In this Monte Carlo technique, a set of finite rough surface profiles in two dimensions with desired statistics was generated and extended periodically. The polarimetric thermal emission from each surface of the set was then calculated using both the EBC and the MOM and the results were averaged. The surface statistics chosen were intended to model a wind perturbed ocean surface in the X to Ku band microwave region. The results indicate that the U parameter is sensitive to the azimuthal angle between the surface periodicity and the looking angle and to the rms height of the surface, and that the U parameter is fairly insensitive to variations in polar angle, permittivity, surface power law spectrum, and surface spectrum high frequency cutoff. These properties give further strength to the idea of using the U parameter to detect wind direction over the ocean.

Johnson, J. T.↗

Density, Velocity and Ionization Structure in Accretion-Disc Winds

This was a project to exploit the unique capabilities of FUSE to monitor variations in the wind- formed spectral lines of the luminous, low-inclination, cataclysmic variables(CV) -- RW Sex. (The original proposal contained two additional objects but these were not approved.) These observations were intended to allow us to determine the relative roles of density and ionization state changes in the outflow and to search for spectroscopic signatures of stochastic small-scale structure and shocked gas. By monitoring the temporal behavior of blue-ward extended absorption lines with a wide range of ionization potentials and excitation energies, we proposed to track the changing physical conditions in the outflow. We planned to use a new Monte Carlo code to calculate the ionization structure of and radiative transfer through the CV wind. The analysis therefore was intended to establish the wind geometry, kinematics and ionization state, both in a time-averaged sense and as a function of time.

Sonneborn, George↗