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Validation of Surface Skin Temperature and Moisture Profiles Using Satellite Data

New validation techniques and metrics using satellite data have been developed to evaluate the quality of model-based estimates of surface skin temperature (Tg) and moisture profiles (q). The satellite data consist of clear sky outgoing long-wave radiation (CLR), broadband radiances from 8 to 12 mu (RadWn), brightness temperature centered around 10.8 mu (Tbb), and total precipitable water (TPW) from microwave radiometry. We show that CLR can be used to diagnose Tg. Furthermore, by using a combination of CLR and RadWn from CERES-TRMM measurements and TPW from SSM/I, we are able to identify errors in the moisture profile. Finally, three-hourly Tbb from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project can be used to evaluate the amplitude and diurnal variation of Tg. For purpose of illustration, Tg and q are evaluated from runs with an early version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-2). It is found that, in general, Tg is too cold in the winter hemisphere and q is too wet in the upper atmosphere. In order to address these deficiencies, several improvements have been implemented into GEOS-2, including a Land-Surface-Model, a Moist Turbulence Scheme, and the assimilation of new TOVS retrievals. Preliminary results indicate positive impacts from each of these implementations.

Wu, Man Li C.↗

Climatic Drivers for the Variation of Gross Primary Productivity Across Terrestrial Ecosystems in the United States

Abstract Temperature and water stress are important factors limiting the gross primary productivity (GPP) in terrestrial ecosystems, yet the extent of their influence across ecosystems remains uncertain. This study examines how surface air temperature, soil water availability (SWA) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) influence ecosystem light use efficiency (LUE), a critical metric for assessing GPP, across different ecosystems and climatic zones at 80 flux tower sites based on in situ measurements and data assimilation products. Results indicate that LUE increases with temperature in spring, with higher correlation coefficients in colder regions (0.79–0.82) than in warmer regions (0.68–0.78). LUE reaches a plateau earlier in the season in warmer regions. LUE variations in summer are mainly driven by SWA, exhibiting a positive correlation indicative of a water‐limited regime. The relationship between the daily LUE and daytime temperature shows a clear seasonal hysteresis at many sites, with a higher LUE in spring than in fall under the same temperature, likely resulting from younger leaves being more efficient in photosynthesis. Drought stress influences LUE through SWA in all ranges of water availability; VPD variation under moderate conditions does not have a clear influence on LUE, but extremely high VPD (exceeding the threshold of 1.6 kPa, often observed during extreme drought‐heat events) causes a dramatic reduction of LUE. Our findings provide insight into how ecosystem productivities respond to climate variability and how they may change under the influence of more frequent and severe heat and drought events projected for the future.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Assessing Mountains as Natural Reservoirs With a Multimetric Framework

Anthropogenic climate change will continue to diminish the unique role that mountains perform as natural reservoirs and alter long‐held assumptions of water management. Climate models are important tools to help constrain uncertainty and understand processes that shape this decline. To ensure that climate model estimates provide stakeholder relevant information, the formulation of multimetric model evaluation frameworks informed by stakeholder interactions are critical. In this study, we present one such multimetric framework to evaluate snowpack data sets in the California Sierra Nevada: the snow water equivalent (SWE) triangle. SWE triangle metrics help to describe snowpack characteristics associated with total water volume buildup, peak water availability, and the rate of water release. This approach highlights compensating errors that would not be reflected in conventional large‐scale spatiotemporal analysis. To test our multimetric evaluation framework, we evaluate several publicly available snow products including the Sierra Nevada Snow Reanalysis, Livneh (L15), and the North American Land Data Assimilation System version 2 data sets. We then evaluate regional climate model skill within the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment. All data sets analyzed show variation across the various SWE triangle metrics, even within observationally constrained snow products. This spread was especially shown in spring season melt rates. Melt rate biases were prevalent throughout most regional climate model simulations, regardless of snow accumulation dynamics, and will need to be addressed to improve their utility for water stakeholders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Methodologies for initialization experiments with NWP mesoscale model and geostationary satellite data

An algorithm is developed for the initialization of a mesoscale NWP model with geostationary satellite data and conventional data. The algorithm is a blend of the four-dimensional assimilation technique (Charney, Jastrow and Halem, 1969) for large-scale NWP models and the variational techniques used in cloud models (Gal-Chen, 1978) and large-scale models (Sasaki, 1969). The model's generated winds are combined with rawinsonde measurements.

Gal-Chen, T.↗

Impact of TRMM and SSM/I Rainfall Assimilation on Global Analysis and QPF

Evaluation of QPF skills requires quantitatively accurate precipitation analyses. We show that assimilation of surface rain rates derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) improves quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) and many aspects of global analyses. Short-range forecasts initialized with analyses with satellite rainfall data generally yield significantly higher QPF threat scores and better storm track predictions. These results were obtained using a variational procedure that minimizes the difference between the observed and model rain rates by correcting the moist physics tendency of the forecast model over a 6h assimilation window. In two case studies of Hurricanes Bonnie and Floyd, synoptic analysis shows that this procedure produces initial conditions with better-defined tropical storm features and stronger precipitation intensity associated with the storm.

Hou, Arthur↗

Regional Precipitation Forecast with Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) Profile Assimilation

Advanced technology in hyperspectral sensors such as the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS; Aumann et al. 2003) on NASA's polar orbiting Aqua satellite retrieve higher vertical resolution thermodynamic profiles than their predecessors due to increased spectral resolution. Although these capabilities do not replace the robust vertical resolution provided by radiosondes, they can serve as a complement to radiosondes in both space and time. These retrieved soundings can have a significant impact on weather forecasts if properly assimilated into prediction models. Several recent studies have evaluated the performance of specific operational weather forecast models when AIRS data are included in the assimilation process. LeMarshall et al. (2006) concluded that AIRS radiances significantly improved 500 hPa anomaly correlations in medium-range forecasts of the Global Forecast System (GFS) model. McCarty et al. (2009) demonstrated similar forecast improvement in 0-48 hour forecasts in an offline version of the operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model when AIRS radiances were assimilated at the regional scale. Reale et al. (2008) showed improvements to Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa height anomaly correlations in NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) global system with the inclusion of partly cloudy AIRS temperature profiles. Singh et al. (2008) assimilated AIRS temperature and moisture profiles into a regional modeling system for a study of a heavy rainfall event during the summer monsoon season in Mumbai, India. This paper describes an approach to assimilate AIRS temperature and moisture profiles into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model using its three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) assimilation system (WRF-Var; Barker et al. 2004). Section 2 describes the AIRS instrument and how the quality indicators are used to intelligently select the highest-quality data for assimilation. Section 3 presents an overall precipitation improvement with AIRS assimilation during a 37-day case study period, and Section 4 focuses on a single case study to further investigate the meteorological impact of AIRS profiles on synoptic scale models. Finally, Section 5 provides a summary of the paper.

Chou, S.-H.↗

Bhutan Water Resources III: Analyzing Forest Disturbances and Climate Data in Bhutan to Create a Tool for Assisting the Himalayan Environment Rhythm Observation and Evaluation Systems (HEROES) Project

Forest disturbances from bark beetle outbreaks are a major concern in Bhutan, known to cause extensive tree mortality to pine and spruce forests. The NASA DEVELOP team partnered with the Ugyen Wangchuck Institute of Conservation and Environmental Research (UWICER), the Bhutan Foundation, and the Karuna Foundation to assess forest changes for the districts of Bumthang and Haa from 2000 to 2018. The project used preprocessed meteorological data from the Climate Hazards Center Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) and Famine Early Warning System Network Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), along with Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) to assess apparent forest disturbance occurrences and observed climate trends. Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) was used to resolve variations in elevation and slope for mountainous regions. Using the Google Earth Engine LandTrendr (LT) code algorithm, along with Landsat data, the team developed an app called Forest Disturbances Detection Toolbox (FDDT) to assess forest changes in Bhutan. The app includes climate variables for the focus districts, along with LT variables, which allows the end users to further examine the cause of disturbances. The team compared geocoordinates for known disturbances with LT disturbance detection products. Although additional work is needed in the future to validate the project end products from the FDDT, the tool will be provided to the project partners to aid forest management efforts in Bhutan.

Tashi Choden↗

Accessing Recent Trend of Land Surface Temperature from Satellite Observations

Land surface temperature (Ts) is an important element to measure the state of terrestrial ecosystems and to study surface energy budgets. In support of the land cover/land use change-related international program MAIRS (Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Study), we have collected global monthly Ts measured by MODIS since the beginning of the missions. The MODIS Ts time series have approximately 11 years of data from Terra since 2000 and approximately 9 years of data from Aqua since 2002, which makes possible to study the recent climate, such as trend. In this study, monthly climatology from two platforms are calculated and compared with that from AIRS. The spatial patterns of Ts trends are accessed, focusing on the Eurasia region. Furthermore, MODIS Ts trends are compared with those from AIRS and NASA's atmospheric assimilation model, MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications). The preliminary results indicate that the recent 8-year Ts trend shows an oscillation-type spatial variation over Eurasia. The pattern is consistent for data from MODIS, AIRS, and MERRA, with the positive center over Eastern Europe, and the negative center over Central Siberia. The calculated climatology and anomaly of MODIS Ts will be integrated into the online visualization system, Giovanni, at NASA GES DISC for easy use by scientists and general public.

Shen, Suhung↗

Mechanisms Controlling the Interannual Variation of Mixed Layer Temperature Averaged over the Nino-3 Region

The present study examines processes governing the interannual variation of MLT in the eastern equatorial Pacific.Processes controlling the interannual variation of mixed layer temperature (MLT) averaged over the Nino-3 domain (5 deg N-5 deg S, 150 deg-90 deg W) are studied using an ocean data assimilation product that covers the period of 1993-2003. The overall balance is such that surface heat flux opposes the MLT change but horizontal advection and subsurface processes assist the change. Advective tendencies are estimated here as the temperature fluxes through the domain's boundaries, with the boundary temperature referenced to the domain-averaged temperature to remove the dependence on temperature scale. This allows the authors to characterize external advective processes that warm or cool the water within the domain as a whole. The zonal advective tendency is caused primarily by large-scale advection of warm-pool water through the western boundary of the domain. The meridional advective tendency is contributed to mostly by Ekman current advecting large-scale temperature anomalies through the southern boundary of the domain. Unlike many previous studies, the subsurface processes that consist of vertical mixing and entrainment are explicitly evaluated. In particular, a rigorous method to estimate entrainment allows an exact budget closure. The vertical mixing across the mixed layer (ML) base has a contribution in phase with the MLT change. The entrainment tendency due to the temporal change in ML depth is negligible compared to other subsurface processes. The entrainment tendency by vertical advection across the ML base is dominated by large-scale changes in upwelling and the temperature of upwelling water. Tropical instability waves (TIWs) result in smaller-scale vertical advection that warms the domain during La Nina cooling events. However, such a warming tendency is overwhelmed by the cooling tendency associated with the large-scale upwelling by a factor of 2. In summary, all the balance terms are important in the MLT budget except the entrainment due to lateral induction and temporal variation in ML depth. All three advective tendencies are primarily caused by large-scale and low-frequency processes, and they assist the Nino-3 MLT change.

eastern equatorial Pacific↗

Model Error Estimation for the CPTEC Eta Model

Statistical data assimilation systems require the specification of forecast and observation error statistics. Forecast error is due to model imperfections and differences between the initial condition and the actual state of the atmosphere. Practical four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) methods try to fit the forecast state to the observations and assume that the model error is negligible. Here with a number of simplifying assumption, a framework is developed for isolating the model error given the forecast error at two lead-times. Two definitions are proposed for the Talagrand ratio tau, the fraction of the forecast error due to model error rather than initial condition error. Data from the CPTEC Eta Model running operationally over South America are used to calculate forecast error statistics and lower bounds for tau.

Tippett, Michael K.↗

Exploring and Analyzing Climate Variations Online by Using NASA MERRA-2 Data at GES DISC

NASA Giovanni (Goddard Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure) (http:giovanni.sci.gsfc.nasa.govgiovanni) is a web-based data visualization and analysis system developed by the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). Current data analysis functions include Lat-Lon map, time series, scatter plot, correlation map, difference, cross-section, vertical profile, and animation etc. The system enables basic statistical analysis and comparisons of multiple variables. This web-based tool facilitates data discovery, exploration and analysis of large amount of global and regional remote sensing and model data sets from a number of NASA data centers. Long term global assimilated atmospheric, land, and ocean data have been integrated into the system that enables quick exploration and analysis of climate data without downloading, preprocessing, and learning data. Example data include climate reanalysis data from NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) which provides data beginning in 1980 to present; land data from NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), which assimilates data from 1948 to 2012; as well as ocean biological data from NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM), which provides data from 1998 to 2012. This presentation, using surface air temperature, precipitation, ozone, and aerosol, etc. from MERRA-2, demonstrates climate variation analysis with Giovanni at selected regions.

knowledge base↗

Artificial stereo presentation of meteorological data fields

The innate capability to perceive three-dimensional stereo imagery has been exploited to present multidimensional meteorological data fields. Variations on an artificial stereo technique first discussed by Pichel et al. (1973) are used to display single and multispectral images in a vivid and easily assimilated manner. Examples of visible/infrared artificial stereo are given for Hurricane Allen and for severe thunderstorms on 10 April 1979. Three-dimensional output from a mesoscale model also is presented. The images may be viewed through the glasses inserted in the February 1981 issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, with the red lens over the right eye. The images have been produced on the interactive Atmospheric and Oceanographic Information Processing System (AOIPS) at Goddard Space Flight Center. Stereo presentation is an important aid in understanding meteorological phenomena for operational weather forecasting, research case studies, and model simulations.

Hasler, A. F.↗

High Speed Networking and Large-scale Simulation in Geodynamics

Large-scale numerical simulation has been one of the most important approaches for understanding global geodynamical processes. In this approach, peta-scale floating point operations (pflops) are often required to carry out a single physically-meaningful numerical experiment. For example, to model convective flow in the Earth's core and generation of the geomagnetic field (geodynamo), simulation for one magnetic free-decay time (approximately 15000 years) with a modest resolution of 150 in three spatial dimensions would require approximately 0.2 pflops. If such a numerical model is used to predict geomagnetic secular variation over decades and longer, with e.g. an ensemble Kalman filter assimilation approach, approximately 30 (and perhaps more) independent simulations of similar scales would be needed for one data assimilation analysis. Obviously, such a simulation would require an enormous computing resource that exceeds the capacity of a single facility currently available at our disposal. One solution is to utilize a very fast network (e.g. 10Gb optical networks) and available middleware (e.g. Globus Toolkit) to allocate available but often heterogeneous resources for such large-scale computing efforts. At NASA GSFC, we are experimenting with such an approach by networking several clusters for geomagnetic data assimilation research. We shall present our initial testing results in the meeting.

Kuang, Weijia↗

Better Weather Prediction and Climate Diagnostics Using Rainfall Measurements from Space

Progress in understanding of the role of water in global weather and climate is currently limited by our knowledge of the spatial and temporal variability of primary hydrological fields such as precipitation and evaporation. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has recently demonstrated that use of microwave-based rainfall observations from space in data assimilation can provide better climate data sets and improve short-range weather forecasting. At NASA, we have been exploring non-traditional approaches to assimilating TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Special Sensor Microwavehager (SSM/I) surface rain rate and latent heating profile information in global systems. In this talk we show that assimilating microwave rain rates using a continuous variational assimilation scheme based on moisture tendency corrections improves quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) and related clouds, radiation energy fluxes, and large-scale circulations in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) reanalyses. Short-range forecasts initialized with these improved analyses also yield better QPE scores and storm track predictions for Hurricanes Bonnie and Floyd. We present a status report on current efforts to assimilate convective and stratiform latent heating profile information within the general variational framework of model parameter estimation to seek further improvements. Within the next 5 years, there will be a gradual increase in microwave rain products available from operational and research satellites, culminating to a target constellation of 9 satellites to provide global rain measurements every 3 hours with the proposed Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission in 2007/2008. Based on what has been learned from TRMM, there is a high degree of confidence that these observations can play a'major role in improving weather forecasts and producing better global datasets for understanding the Earth's water and energy cycle. The key to success is to adopt an integrated approach to retrieval, validation, modeling, and data assimilation in a coordinated end-to-end observation-application program.

Hou, Arthur↗

Drought Indicators Based on Model Assimilated GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Observations

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) twin satellites observe time variations in Earth's gravity field which yield valuable information about changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS). GRACE is characterized by low spatial (greater than 150,000 square kilometers) and temporal (greater than 10 day) resolution but has the unique ability to sense water stored at all levels (including groundwater) systematically and continuously. The GRACE Data Assimilation System (GRACE-DAS), based on the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) enhances the value of the GRACE water storage data by enabling spatial and temporal downscaling and vertical decomposition into moisture 39 components (i.e. groundwater, soil moisture, snow), which individually are more useful for scientific applications. In this study, GRACE-DAS was applied to North America and GRACE-based drought indicators were developed as part of a larger effort that investigates the possibility of more comprehensive and objective identification of drought conditions by integrating spatially, temporally and vertically disaggregated GRACE data into the U.S. and North American Drought Monitors. Previously, the Drought Monitors lacked objective information on deep soil moisture and groundwater conditions, which are useful indicators of drought. Extensive datasets of groundwater storage from USGS monitoring wells and soil moisture from the Soil Climate Analysis Network (SCAN) were used to assess improvements in the hydrological modeling skill resulting from the assimilation of GRACE TWS data. The results point toward modest, but statistically significant, improvements in the hydrological modeling skill across major parts of the United States, highlighting the potential value of GRACE assimilated water storage field for improving drought detection.

Houborg, Rasmus↗

NASA's Carbon Monitoring System Flux-Pilot Project: A Multi-Component Analysis System for Carbon-Cycle Research and Monitoring

The importance of greenhouse gas increases for climate motivates NASA s observing strategy for CO2 from space, including the forthcoming Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) mission. Carbon cycle monitoring, including attribution of atmospheric concentrations to regional emissions and uptake, requires a robust modeling and analysis infrastructure to optimally extract information from the observations. NASA's Carbon-Monitoring System Flux-Pilot Project (FPP) is a prototype for such analysis, combining a set of unique tools to facilitate analysis of atmospheric CO2 along with fluxes between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere or ocean. NASA's analysis system is unique, in that it combines information and expertise from the land, oceanic, and atmospheric branches of the carbon cycle and includes some estimates of uncertainty. Numerous existing space-based missions provide information of relevance to the carbon cycle. This study describes the components of the FPP framework, assessing the realism of computed fluxes, thus providing the basis for research and monitoring applications. Fluxes are computed using data-constrained terrestrial biosphere models and physical ocean models, driven by atmospheric observations and assimilating ocean-color information. Use of two estimates provides a measure of uncertainty in the fluxes. Along with inventories of other emissions, these data-derived fluxes are used in transport models to assess their consistency with atmospheric CO2 observations. Closure is achieved by using a four-dimensional data assimilation (inverse) approach that adjusts the terrestrial biosphere fluxes to make them consistent with the atmospheric CO2 observations. Results will be shown, illustrating the year-to-year variations in land biospheric and oceanic fluxes computed in the FPP. The signals of these surface-flux variations on atmospheric CO2 will be isolated using forward modeling tools, which also incorporate estimates of transport error. The results will be discussed in the context of interannual variability of observed atmospheric CO2 distributions.

Pawson, S.↗

Understanding and Utilizing PBL Height Data from Multiple Observing Systems in the GEOS System

The accuracy of PBL height simulation is a key issue in many applications including forecasting near surface meteorology and air quality, however, it is a very challenging problem due to the lack of not only comprehensive, global Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) observations but also a strategy and infrastructure to utilize PBL height data from a variety of sensors. Following the designation of PBL as an incubation class observable in the 2017 Decadal Survey, the PBL Incubation Study Team Report [14] made clear that “a future global PBL observing system requires modeling and data assimilation as essential components.” There is an urgent need for global modeling development in order to utilize Program of Record (POR) observations, assess their impacts, and identify gaps to be filled by future PBL missions. Our overall objective is to develop PBL data assimilation capabilities in the NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS), focusing on PBL height from multiple observing systems, to support the assessment and use of future PBL observations. The NASA GEOS system is composed of the GEOS global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and the atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS). The PBL parameterizations include the “Lock” K-profile scheme driven by surface and cloud-top buoyancy fluxes ([4]), and the “Louis” local scheme for stable conditions based on the Richardson number ([5]). Above the mixed layer defined by the Lock surface plume, shallow cumulus convection is represented by the mass flux scheme of [9]. Additional parameterizations are summarized in [1]. The ADAS employs the hybrid 4D Ensemble- Variational (EnVar) configuration ([15]), with the ensemble providing flow-dependent background error covariance information. The resultant analysis increments are fed back to the forecast model through the 4D incremental analysis update (IAU) approach ([11]). In this study, PBL height data are being or have been generated from radiosondes, GNSS RO, satellite (CATS, CALIPSO and ICESat-2) and ground-based (MPLNET) lidars, and wind profiler. Investigations have been conducted to specify quality marks for PBL height retrievals for the data assimilation purpose. These PBL height data have different strengths and weaknesses ([2], [3], [6], [7], [8], [10]), and the satellite PBL height data provide better global coverage and complement in-situ PBL height data. Radiosondes offer high accuracy and in situ measurement of temperature and humidity profiles, but with poor spatio-temporal sampling. The in-situ observing systems like MPLNET and wind profiler provide long history of PBL height records at each station. The GNSS RO based PBL height is retrieved based on the sharp gradients in refractivity profile that represent the fine vertical structure of temperature and moisture changes above the PBL. However, not all RO refractivity profiles reach the surface depending on location and regime, and RO refractivity retrievals can be negatively biased below 2km. The PBL height data from satellite lidars provide high resolution along track PBL height retrievals, but over land they are affected by previous day convective PBL aerosol and strongly associated with mixing layer and retrievals cannot be made below thick, attenuating clouds. A successful assimilation of PBL height data requires a thorough understanding of the observing method and the retrieval algorithm for each observing system in order to use the PBL height data from multiple observing systems properly. Due to the sensitivity of PBL height data to the observing method and choice of algorithm, it is important to use a model definition appropriate for each observation type to compute differences between PBL height data and model PBL height (OmFs). The GEOS model currently includes two PBL height definitions suitable for direct comparison with observed PBL height, and additional definitions are being added in this study. Evaluation of different model PBL height definitions is underway. Meanwhile, efforts have been made in the GEOS data assimilation system to develop PBL height data assimilation capability. PBL height data can be assimilated using two different approaches. The traditional approach is to construct an observation operator and its tangent linear and adjoint, which link control variables to PBL height data from each observing system. This observation operator can be very complicated, e.g., the lidar-based PBL height observation operator includes the backscatter lidar forward observation operator, the algorithm to derive PBL height from attenuated total backscatter, interpolation, and calculations handling the mismatch between observed and model scales. The other approach is to augment PBL height to the control variable vector, and it is adopted in this study. The latter approach was also used in previous studies, e.g., the assimilation of PBL height data from radiosonde and aircraft in the Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) system for a dispersion modelling study ([13]); the PBL height assimilation study using lidar PBL height data at Greensburg, Kansas for a field campaign ([12]). The PBL height assimilation from multiple observing systems in this study allows us to take advantage of the diverse PBL height data that provide much better global coverage collectively under different meteorological conditions and with different temporal and spatial scales. As all the PBL heights are tightly coupled with the PBL thermodynamic variables, the strong correlations, which are provided by the 4D ensemble forecast, enable PBL height data from various sources to interact and combine coherently and provide additional information for PBL temperature and moisture fields. The results of comparisons among PBL height data from different sources and the evaluation of the model PBL height definitions with the PBL height data will be presented, and the PBL height data synergy strategies and preliminary results will also be discussed at the conference.

Y. Zhu↗

The impact of multi-sensor land data assimilation on river discharge estimation

River discharge is one of the most critical renewable water resources. Accurately estimating river discharge with land surface models (LSMs) remains challenging due to the difficulty in estimating land water storages such as snow, soil moisture, and groundwater. While data assimilation (DA) ingesting optical, microwave, and gravity measurements from space can help constrain theses storage states, its impacts on runoff and eventually river discharge are not fully understood. In this study, by taking advantage of recently published land DA results that jointly assimilate eight different combinations of observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E), we quantify to what degree multi-sensor land DA improves the river discharge simulation skills over 40 global river basins, and investigate the complementary strengths of different satellite measurements on river discharge. To be more specific, river discharge is updated by feeding gridded runoff from the eight multi-sensor DA simulations into a vector-based river routing model named the Routing Application for Parallel computatIon of Discharge (RAPID). Our modeling results, including 7-year simulations at 177,458 river reaches globally, are used to study the seasonal to interannual variability of river discharge. It is found that assimilating GRACE has the greatest impact on global runoff patterns, leading to the most pronounced improvements in spatial river discharge in the middle and high latitudes with the R 2 increased by 0.16. The seasonal variation of spatial discharge is most skillful during the boreal summer. However, our evaluation also shows model and DA still struggle to generate reasonable variability and averaged discharge over permafrost regions. Finally, by assessing how different satellites add value to discharge forecasts, this study paves the way for more advanced multi-sensor satellite data assimilation to predict the terrestrial hydrological cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗