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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

High‐Resolution National‐Scale Water Modeling Is Enhanced by Multiscale Differentiable Physics‐Informed Machine Learning

Abstract The National Water Model (NWM) is a key tool for flood forecasting, planning, and water management. Key challenges facing the NWM include calibration and parameter regionalization when confronted with big data. We present two novel versions of high‐resolution (∼37 km 2 ) differentiable models (a type of hybrid model): one with implicit, unit‐hydrograph‐style routing and another with explicit Muskingum‐Cunge routing in the river network. The former predicts streamflow at basin outlets whereas the latter presents a discretized product that seamlessly covers rivers in the conterminous United States (CONUS). Both versions use neural networks to provide a multiscale parameterization and process‐based equations to provide a structural backbone, which were trained simultaneously (“end‐to‐end”) on 2,807 basins across the CONUS and evaluated on 4,997 basins. Both versions show great potential to elevate future NWM performance for extensively calibrated as well as ungauged sites: the median daily Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency of all 4,997 basins is improved to around 0.68 from 0.48 of NWM3.0. As they resolve spatial heterogeneity, both versions greatly improved simulations in the western CONUS and also in the Prairie Pothole Region, a long‐standing modeling challenge. The Muskingum‐Cunge version further improved performance for basins >10,000 km 2 . Overall, our results show how neural‐network‐based parameterizations can improve NWM performance for providing operational flood predictions while maintaining interpretability and multivariate outputs. The modeling system supports the Basic Model Interface (BMI), which allows seamless integration with the next‐generation NWM. We also provide a CONUS‐scale hydrologic data set for further evaluation and use.

Song, Yalan [Civil and Environmental Engineering T↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Advances in Anion Exchange Membranes and Ionomers on Alkaline Fuel Cells

Abstract The operation of low‐temperature electrochemical energy conversion systems (fuel cells, electrolyzers) at high pH values is of perennial interest due to the possibility of moving away from expensive platinum group metal catalysts and reducing cost. Historically, the anion exchange membranes (AEMs) and ionomers have been hampered by performance (ionic conductivity, mechanical strength) and chemical stability issues. In this context, select developments over the past decade in alternate AEM chemistries, water management methods, and production of membrane electrode assemblies (MEAs) that have enabled a significant leap in performance of alkaline fuel cells are examined. These developments are linked to performance improvements in alkaline H 2 /O 2 fuel cells and also consider developments in alkaline fuel cells using nitrogen‐containing fuels (ammonia, hydrazine), carbon‐containing fuels (alcohols, glycols), and boron‐containing fuels (sodium borohydride, ammonia borane). Finally, current challenges and bottlenecks are identified, and potential solutions are proposed.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2020

Safety Design of Water Infrastructures in A Modern Era

In this chapter, we review the current practice of engineering safety design of large water management infrastructures. Those large infrastructures are designed using probable maximum precipitation (PMP) to withstand extreme conditions, but climate change has been posing challenges on the conventional PMP estimation approach. We discuss multiple limitations of the current approaches, and propose a few possible solutions based on the advancement of atmospheric modeling and statistical analysis of extreme precipitation mechanisms.

Chen, Xiaodong↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anticipating how rain-on-snow events will change through the 21st century: lessons from the 1997 new year’s flood event

The California-Nevada 1997 New Year’s flood was an atmospheric river (AR)-driven rain-on-snow (RoS) event and remains the costliest in their history. The joint occurrence of saturated soils, rainfall, and snowmelt generated inundation throughout northern California-Nevada. Although AR RoS events are projected to occur more frequently with climate change, the warming sensitivity of their flood drivers across scales remains understudied. We leverage the regionally refined mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM-E3SM) to recreate the 1997 New Year’s flood with horizontal grid spacings of 3.5 km across California, with forecast lead times of up to 4 days, and across six warming levels ranging from pre-industrial conditions to +3.5° C. We describe the sensitivity of the flood drivers to warming including AR duration and intensity, precipitation phase, intensity and efficiency, snowpack mass and energy changes, and runoff efficiency. Our findings indicate current levels of climate change negligibly influence the flood drivers. At warming levels ≥ 1.7° C, AR hazard potential increases, snowpack nonlinearly decreases, antecedent soil moisture decreases (except where the snowline retreats), and runoff decreases (except in the southern Sierra Nevada where antecedent snowpack persists). Storm total precipitation increases, but at rates below warming-induced increases in saturation-specific humidity. Warming intensifies short-duration, high-intensity rainfall, particularly where snowfall-to-rainfall transitions occur. This study highlights the nonlinear tradeoffs in 21st-century RoS flood hazards with warming and provides water management and infrastructure investment adaptation considerations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimation of hydraulic conductivity in a watershed using sparse multi-source data via Gaussian process regression and Bayesian experimental design

Enhanced water management systems depend on accurate estimation of subsurface hydraulic properties. However, geologic formations can vary significantly, so information from a single source (e.g., widely spaced boreholes) is insufficient in characterizing subsurface aquifer properties. Therefore, multiple sources of information are needed to complement the hydrogeology understanding of a region. Here, this study presents a numerical framework in which information from different measurement sources is combined to characterize the 3D random field in a multi-fidelity prediction model. Coupled with the model, a Bayesian experimental design was used to determine the best future sampling locations. The Upper Sangamon watershed in east-central Illinois was selected as the case study site, where the multi-fidelity Gaussian process model was used to estimate the hydraulic conductivity in the region of interest. Multi-source observation data were obtained from electrical resistivity and borehole pumping tests. The accuracy of the model prediction is dependent on the locations and the distribution of both high- and low-fidelity data. Furthermore, the multi-fidelity model was compared with the single-fidelity model. The uncertainties and confidence in the measurements and parameter estimates were quantified and used to design future cycles of data collection to further improve the confidence intervals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mathematical Programming Models for Shale Oil & Gas Development: A Review and Perspective

Here, in this paper, we provide a comprehensive review of mathematical programming models for shale oil & gas development, and we offer a perspective on outstanding research opportunities. We distinguish contributions in five major topic areas, namely: (1) development planning, (2) water management, (3) production optimization, (4) supplies, gathering & processing, and (5) life cycle analysis & sustainability. We highlight how various types of mathematical programming models (i.e., linear programs, nonlinear programs, mixed-integer linear programs, mixed-integer nonlinear programs) have been proposed primarily by the Process Systems Engineering community to address the respective decision-making problems, and we highlight instances of successful deployment in industry. Finally, based on a critical assessment of the existing body of work, we identify opportunities for future research across the major topic areas.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Facets of hydro power and future trends in a Nordic Context

Hydropower technologies bolster high penetration of variable renewable energies (VREs) in the net zero emissions scenarios. Nevertheless, there are various challenges to meeting the ambitious goal, such as stability, reliability, resiliency, security, lack of reactive power, voltage support and inertia, large-scale storage deployment and coordination, interconnectedness, demand-side response, higher thermal cycles with increased start/stops, and inadequate Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for system-wise VRE integration and profitability. This survey conducts a bottom-up analysis to unveil the opportunities to utilize hydropower facilities and disentangle the nested problem for intertwining design features, control algorithms, operation, optimization approaches, incentives, services, and market mechanisms using a three-pillar framework perspective: grid owners, power producers, and machine designers. The survey identified emerging trends in real-time and capacity markets, flexible power systems, and enhanced grid capabilities, including advanced voltage support and updated grid codes. These developments present significant opportunities for hydropower, such as achieving super-flexibility through hybridization, expanded reactive power capabilities, and advanced operational modes like a synchronous condenser and power adequator functionalities. These opportunities require novel design philosophies — including new winding, stator, and rotor configurations, optimized ventilation, and active cooling systems — to enhance performance under stressed grid and climate conditions. Finally, integrating climate and energy models for multi-basin optimization with finer spatial and temporal granularity enhances the planning accuracy for water management of hydropower while addressing environmental challenges. The review delivers helpful prospective suggestions and tools that would serve researchers, power engineers, and stakeholders in making decisions about hydropower technologies and services in 2050 and beyond.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mathematical modeling of novel porous transport layer architectures for proton exchange membrane electrolysis cells

Thin foil based porous transport layers (PTLs) that contain highly structured pore arrays have shown promise as anode PTLs in proton exchange membrane electrolysis cells. These novel PTLs, fabricated with advanced manufacturing techniques, produce thin, tunable, multifunctional layers with reduced flow and interfacial resistances and high thermal and electric conductivities. To further optimize their design, it is important to understand their fundamental impact on the transport of protons, electrons, and liquid/vapor mixtures in the electrode. In this work, we develop a two-dimensional multiphysics model to simulate the coupled electrochemistry and multiphase transport in an electrolysis cell operated with the novel PTL architecture. The results show that larger pores improve access of water to the anode catalyst layer, which is beneficial for both the oxygen evolution reaction and membrane hydration. Larger pore sizes also improve oxygen gas transport from the catalyst layer, because generated oxygen gas is forced to travel in-plane through the anode catalyst layer until it reaches a pore opening that is connected to a channel. The discussed results confirm that the proposed thin foil based PTLs are fundamentally different from conventional PTLs, such as felts or layered meshes. The model developed in this work also provides generalizable insight into fundamental PEMEC phenomena, such as the competition between liquid and gas phase transport, membrane hydration and water management, and nonuniform electrochemical reactions, which are processes relevant to all PEMEC designs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using SWMM for emergency response planning: A case study evaluating biological agent transport under various rainfall scenarios and urban surfaces

To assist in emergency preparedness for a biological agent terrorist attack or accidental pathogen release, potential contaminant levels and migration pathways of spores spread by urban stormwater were evaluated using a Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) of U.S. Coast Guard Base Elizabeth City, North Carolina. The high temporal-spatial resolution SWMM model was built using spore concentrations in stormwater runoff from asphalt, grass, and concrete collected from a point-scale field study. The subsequent modeled contamination scenarios included a notional plume release and point releases mimicking the field study under three rainfall conditions. The rainfall scenarios included a 6-hour natural rainfall event on Dec. 8, 2021 and two design storms (2-year and 100-year events). The observed spore concentrations from asphalt and concrete from the actual field experiment were applied to calibrate the washoff parameters in the SWMM model, using an exponential washoff function. The calibrated washoff coefficient (c 1 ) and exponent (c 2 ) were 0.01 and 1.00 for asphalt, 0.05 and 1.45 for grass, and 2.45 and 1.00 for concrete, respectively. The calibrated SWMM model simulated spore concentrations in runoff at times and magnitudes similar to the field study data. In the point release modeled scenario, the concrete surface generated 55.6% higher average spore concentrations than asphalt. Similarly, in the field experiment, a 175% (p < 0.05) higher average spore concentration in surface runoff was observed from concrete than from asphalt. Here, this study demonstrates how SWMM may be used to evaluate spore washoff from urban surfaces under different precipitation amounts, intensities, and durations, and how visualized spatial migration pathways in stormwater runoff may be used for emergency planning and remediation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Accounting for uncertainty in complex alluvial aquifer modeling by Bayesian multi-model approach

Alluvial aquifers by nature are complex caused by varied depositional environments. Developing a reliable groundwater model to represent an alluvial aquifer is non-trivial. Also, relying on a single best calibrated model may not be sufficient because of an inadequate choice of model parameter values. To better understand groundwater dynamics and improve model prediction reliability, this study presents a Bayesian multi-model uncertainty quantification (BMMUQ) framework to account for model parameter uncertainty in complex alluvial groundwater modeling. The methodology was applied to the agriculturally intensive Mississippi River alluvial aquifer (MRAA), Northeast Louisiana. An aquifer architecture was first constructed using 7,259 well logs in the MRAA area which covers three fluvial deposits (alluvium, braided-stream terrace, and braided-stream terrace-loess). A 12-layer MODFLOW model was then developed to address the alluvial aquifer complexity and well calibrated through a genetic algorithm. This study quantified model parameter uncertainty in hydraulic conductivity and specific storage of sand facies. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) with the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm was adopted to derive posterior model weights and head variances of 50 alternative conceptual groundwater flow models, and thereby obtains BMA ensemble model predictions instead of only relying on the best calibrated conceptual model. Overall, results show that an estimated around 950 million m3 of groundwater storage loss occurs in 2015 with respect to the beginning of 2004, due to high groundwater demand for irrigation in the MRAA area. Explicitly quantifying model uncertainty can produce more reliable groundwater level predictions from BMA ensemble model. The presented groundwater modeling framework improves our understanding of the MRAA and provides a valuable tool to assist agricultural water management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A novel approach to increase accuracy in remotely sensed evapotranspiration through basin water balance and flux tower constraints

Remote sensing-derived evapotranspiration (RSET) products capture the spatiotemporal variations of evapotranspiration (ET) from field to basin scales with unprecedented details. However, their accuracy varies across RSET estimation methods and diverse hydroclimate regions. While ET modeling efforts to account for biophysical processes and controlling parameters have made good progress in recent years, a parallel approach of integrating in-situ ET with RSET could reduce biases in RSET products. Basin water balance ET (WBET) and flux tower ET are widely applied to evaluate RSET accuracy, yet such ET measurements are rarely used for RSET bias corrections, especially for large area applications. To address this issue, we propose a novel approach: the water balance equivalence (WABE) method, which generates spatially continuous WBET for correcting biases in RSET products. The WABE method computes synthetic WBET by integrating observed WBET and flux tower-derived FLUXCOM ET, which fills the spatial gaps of observed WBET and generates a spatially continuous WBET dataset. Synthetic WBET (2002–2015 annual average) of eight-digit hydrologic unit code (HUC8) basins across the conterminous United States (CONUS), constituting 44 % (887 out of 2035 basins) of CONUS basins, was determined within 2.0 % (RMSE = 12 %) of observed WBET at CONUS and between 1–12 % (RMSE = 3–33 %) across 18 regions in CONUS. With WABE-based bias corrections, the overall annual bias of RSET decreased from 10 % (RMSE = 34 %) to 6 % (RMSE = 26 %) across 37 flux tower sites. The WABE method offers a new approach for RSET accuracy improvement and shows great promise for large area implementations with a potential to yield substantial benefits for building accurate basin water budgets and water management decisions.

Khand, Kul↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hydrological projections over the Upper Indus Basin at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C temperature increase

We analyse an ensemble of statistically downscaled Global Climate Models (GCMs) to investigate future water availability in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) of Pakistan for the time horizons when the global and/or regional warming levels cross Paris Agreement (PA) targets. The GCMs data is obtained from the 5th Phase of Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Based on the five best performing GCMs, we note that global 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming thresholds are projected in 2026 and 2047 under RCP4.5 and 2022 and 3036 under RCP8.5 respectively while these thresholds are reached much earlier over Pakistan i.e. 2016 and 2030 under RCP4.5 and 2012 and 2025 under RCP8.5 respectively. Interestingly, the GCMs with the earliest emergence at the global scale are not necessarily the ones with the earliest emergence over Pakistan, highlighting spatial non-linearity in GCMs response. The emergence of 2.0 °C warming at global scale across 5 GCMs ranges from 2031 (CCSM4) to 2049 (NorESM) under RCP8.5. Precipitation generally exhibits a progressive increasing trend with stronger changes at higher warming or radiative forcing levels. Hydrological simulations representing the historical, 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global and region warming time horizons indicate a robust but seasonally varying increase in the inflows. The highest inflows in the baseline and future are witnessed in July. However, the highest future increase in inflows is projected in October under RCP4.5 (37.99% and 65.11% at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C) and in April under RCP8.5 (37% and 62.05% at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C). These hydrological changes are driven by increases in the snow and glacial melt contribution, which are more pronounced at 2.0 °C warming level. These findings should help for effective water management in Pakistan over the coming decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dilemma of organic matter input to mitigate climate impact of rice paddies

Soil can act as either a source or sink of atmospheric carbon (C). Organic matter application can sequester carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) through negative emission technologies. However, in rice paddies, organic matter application can significantly increase methane (CH 4 ) emissions, offsetting potential climate benefits. Here, we compared the effects of organic matter types on net climate impact by quantifying annual gaseous fluxes and soil C stock changes with CO 2 equivalents. All organic amendments increased CH 4 emissions (7–30 Mg CO 2 -eq. ha −1 ) compared with the no organic matter treatment (NPK). However, the increases in soil C stock (9–11 Mg CO 2 -eq. ha −1 ) were insufficient to shift the system from a net C source to a net sink, even when combined with water management strategies. In contrast, biochar increased CH 4 emissions but enhanced soil C stock, leading to a net negative emission effect without compromising rice productivity. Given that rice paddies account for about 11 % of anthropogenic CH 4 emissions, organic matter application requires careful evaluation to avoid exacerbating climatic impacts.

Climate impact↗
DOE OSTI2023

Several Small or Single Large? Quantifying the Catchment-Wide Performance of On-Site Wastewater Treatment Plants with Inaccurate Sensors

On-site wastewater treatment plants (OSTs) often lack monitoring, resulting in unreliable treatment performance. They thus appear to be a stopgap solution despite their potential contribution to circular water management. Low-maintenance but inaccurate soft sensors are emerging that address this concern. However, how their inaccuracy impacts the catchment-wide treatment performance of a system of many OSTs has not been quantified. Here, we develop a stochastic model to estimate catchment-wide OST performances with a Monte Carlo simulation. In our study, soft sensors with a 70% accuracy improved the treatment performance from 66% of the time functional to 98%. Soft sensors optimized for specificity, indicating the true negative rate, improve the system performance, while sensors optimized for sensitivity, indicating the true positive rate, quantify the treatment performance more accurately. This new insight leads us to suggest programming two soft sensors in practical settings with the same hardware sensor data as input: one soft sensor geared to high specificity for maintenance scheduling and one geared to high sensitivity for performance quantification. Our findings suggest that a maintenance strategy combining inaccurate sensors with appropriate alarm management can vastly improve the mean catchment-wide treatment performance of a system of OSTs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Coherent Streamflow Variability in Monsoon Asia Over the Past Eight Centuries—Links to Oceanic Drivers

The Monsoon Asia region is home to ten of the world’s biggest rivers, supporting the lives of 1.7 billion people who rely on streamflow for water, energy, and food. Yet, a synoptic understanding of multi-centennial streamflow variability for this region is lacking. Here we produce the first large scale streamflow reconstruction over Monsoon Asia (63 stations in 16 countries), using a novel climate-informed dynamic algorithm that is skillful over 92% of the gauging stations. In this work, we show that streamflow in Monsoon Asia is spatially coherent, owing to common drivers from the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans that exert their greatest influence over the Mekong and Chao Phraya basins. This work increases our understanding of streamflow variability over Monsoon Asia. We suggest that future water management in the region should be coordinated between basins, taking into account the states of the oceans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Variability of Snow and Rainfall Partitioning Into Evapotranspiration and Summer Runoff Across Nine Mountainous Catchments

Abstract Understanding the partitioning of snow and rain contributing to either catchment streamflow or evapotranspiration (ET) is of critical relevance for water management in response to climate change. To investigate this partitioning, we use endmember splitting and mixing analyses based on stable isotope ( 18 O) data from nine headwater catchments in the East River, Colorado. Our results show that one third of the snow partitions to ET and 13% of the snowmelt sustains summer streamflow. Only 8% of the rainfall contributes to the summer streamflow, because most of the rain (67%) partitions to ET. The spatial variability of precipitation partitioning is mainly driven by aspect and tree cover across the sub‐catchments. Catchments with higher tree cover have a higher share of snow becoming ET, resulting in less snow in summer streamflow. Summer streamflow did not contain more rain with higher rainfall sums, but more rain was taken up in ET.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Monitoring Terrestrial Water Storage, Drought and Seasonal Changes in Central Oklahoma With Ambient Seismic Noise

Abstract Significant imbalances in terrestrial water storage (TWS) and severe drought have been observed around the world as a consequence of climate changes. Improving our ability to monitor TWS and drought is critical for water‐resource management and water‐deficit estimation. We use continuous seismic ambient noise to monitor temporal evolution of near‐surface seismic velocity, dv / v , in central Oklahoma from 2013 to 2022. The derived dv / v is found to be negatively correlated with gravitational measurements and groundwater depths, showing the impact of groundwater storage on seismic velocities. The hydrological effects involving droughts and recharge of groundwater occur on a multi‐year time scale and dominate the overall derived velocity changes. The thermoelastic response to atmospheric temperature variations occurs primarily on a yearly timescale and dominates the superposed seasonal velocity changes in this study. The occurrences of droughts appear simultaneously with local peaks of dv / v , demonstrating the sensitivity of near‐surface seismic velocities to droughts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Leveraging Groundwater Dynamics to Improve Predictions of Summer Low-Flow Discharges

Summer streamflow predictions are critical for managing water resources; however, warming-induced shifts from snow to rain regimes impact low-flow predictive models. Additionally, reductions in snowpack drive earlier peak flows and lower summer flows across the western United States increasing reliance on groundwater for maintaining summer streamflow. However, it remains poorly understood how groundwater contributions vary interannually. Here, we quantify recession limb groundwater (RLGW), defined as the proportional groundwater contribution to the stream during the period between peak stream flow and low flow, to predict summer low flows across three diverse western US watersheds. We ask (a) how do snow and rain dynamics influence interannual variations of RLGW contributions and summer low flows?; (b) which watershed attributes impact the effectiveness of RLGW as a predictor of summer low flows? Linear models reveal that RLGW is a strong predictor of low flows across all sites and drastically improves low-flow prediction compared to snow metrics at a rain-dominated site. Results suggest that strength of RLGW control on summer low flows may be mediated by subsurface storage. Subsurface storage can be divided into dynamic (i.e., variability saturated) and deep (i.e., permanently saturated) components, and we hypothesize that interannual variability in dynamic storage contribution to streamflow drives RLGW variability. In systems with a higher proportion of dynamic storage, RLGW is a better predictor of summer low flow because the stream is more responsive to dynamic storage contributions compared to deep-storage-dominated systems. Overall, including RLGW improved low-flow prediction across diverse watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗