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DOE OSTI2021

Improve wildfire predictability driven by extreme water cycle with interpretable physically-guided ML/AI

Focal Area(s): Predictive modeling using AI techniques and AI-derived model components; use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (Primary); insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics or knowledge-guided AI (Secondary). Science Challenge: Wildfires modify land surface characteristics, such as vegetation composition, soil and litter carbon stocks, and surface albedo, with significant consequences for the regional carbon cycle. For example, tropical regions (i.e., African and South America) are particularly vulnerable to wildfire, account for more than 80% of the global burned area, and emit ~1.4 PgC y -1 into the atmosphere together with other dust and aerosols that strongly affect regional climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2020

The gathering firestorm in southern Amazonia

Wildfires, exacerbated by extreme weather events and land use, threaten to change the Amazon from a net carbon sink to a net carbon source. Here, we develop and apply a coupled ecosystem-fire model to quantify how greenhouse gas–driven drying and warming would affect wildfires and associated CO2 emissions in the southern Brazilian Amazon. Regional climate projections suggest that Amazon fire regimes will intensify under both low- and high-emission scenarios. Our results indicate that projected climatic changes will double the area burned by wildfires, affecting up to 16% of the region’s forests by 2050. Although these fires could emit as much as 17.0 Pg of CO2 equivalent to the atmosphere, avoiding new deforestation could cut total net fire emissions in half and help prevent fires from escaping into protected areas and indigenous lands. Aggressive efforts to eliminate ignition sources and suppress wildfires will be critical to conserve southern Amazon forests.

P. M. Brando↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Access to the GEOS Composition Forecast Model with API Development and Ingestion into Google Earth Engine

The GEOS Composition Forecast (GEOS-CF) model produces forecast and historical estimates of atmospheric composition and meteorology fields, which provide useful insight into air quality issues and events. In a year for which Canadian wildfires created adverse air quality conditions in the eastern United States, access to model fields such as PM2.5 are in high demand. The GEOS-CF team at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) first developed in-house solutions to improve data access via the CF API, and recently partnered with Google to ingest a collated set of model diagnostics into the Google Earth Engine (GEE) data repository. GEOS-CF model output is also being ingested into AWS storage. Creating these various open access points to GEOS-CF model diagnostics provides the public with an opportunity to easily interact with air quality information. Users are able to use a temporally consistent global grid of air quality fields in machine learning applications, mapping tools, and data informatics. Hosting GEOS-CF forecasts and the historical timeseries of these chemistry and meteorology fields in GEE allows users to create dynamic JavaScript-based air quality applications in the GEE code editor. GEOS-CF users can also access the model output via the GEE Python application programming interface (API), making it easy to perform various analyses with Python. This presentation will show two examples of accessing the GEOS-CF model through GEE. The first is an example application made in the GEE code editor which allows users to view time series plots and downscaled maps of surface level NO2. The second example exhibits using the GEE Python API to create a machine learning model to temporally gap-fill between air quality observations. These examples are an introduction to the many possible benefits of having open access to the GEOS-CF model through multiple platforms.

Callum Wayman↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Access to the GEOS Composition Forecast Model with API Development and Ingestion into Google Earth Engine

The GEOS Composition Forecast (GEOS-CF) model produces forecast and historical estimates of atmospheric composition and meteorology fields, which provide useful insight into air quality issues and events. In a year for which Canadian wildfires created adverse air quality conditions in the eastern United States, access to model fields such as PM2.5 are in high demand. The GEOS-CF team at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) first developed in-house solutions to improve data access via the CF API, and recently partnered with Google to ingest a collated set of model diagnostics into the Google Earth Engine (GEE) data repository. GEOS-CF model output is also being ingested into AWS storage. Creating these various open access points to GEOS-CF model diagnostics provides the public with an opportunity to easily interact with air quality information. Users are able to use a temporally consistent global grid of air quality fields in machine learning applications, mapping tools, and data informatics. Hosting GEOS-CF forecasts and the historical timeseries of these chemistry and meteorology fields in GEE allows users to create dynamic JavaScript-based air quality applications in the GEE code editor. GEOS-CF users can also access the model output via the GEE Python application programming interface (API), making it easy to perform various analyses with Python. This presentation will show two examples of accessing the GEOS-CF model through GEE. The first is an example application made in the GEE code editor which allows users to view time series plots and downscaled maps of surface level NO 2 . The second example exhibits using the GEE Python API to create a machine learning model to temporally gap-fill between air quality observations. These examples are an introduction to the many possible benefits of having open access to the GEOS-CF model through multiple platforms.

Callum Wayman↗

DOE OSTI2023

Projection of Future Fire Emissions Over the Contiguous US Using Explainable Artificial Intelligence and CMIP6 Models

Abstract Increasing temperature and water cycle changes due to warming climate may increase the frequency and intensity of wildfires. Fire emission projections are useful for informing strategies for adaptation and mitigation of fire impacts on societies and ecosystems. Here, we construct a neural network (NN) model explained by the Shapley Additive explanation to predict fire PM 2.5 emissions change and understand their drivers over the contiguous US (CONUS) in the mid‐21st century under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP5‐8.5). Using future meteorology and leaf area index (LAI) simulated by eight global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, future population density, and present‐day land use and land cover (LULC) as input to the NN model, the total fire PM 2.5 emissions over CONUS are projected to increase by 4%–75% (model spread). Among different regions, fire emissions in the western US are projected to increase more significantly in June‐July‐August than in other seasons and regions, with the median ratios of future to present‐day fire emissions ranging from 1.67 to 2.86. The increases in fire emissions are mainly driven by increasing normalized temperature (23%–29%) and decreasing soil moisture (2%–10%) in the future. When future LULC change is considered, the projected fire emissions further increase by 58%–83% over the western US compared to projections without LULC change because of future increases in vegetation fraction. The results highlight the important role of warmer temperature, decreasing soil moisture, and LULC change in increasing fire emissions in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data and scripts associated with the manuscript evaluating the hydrologic responses of the Pacific Northwest watersheds to wildfires (v2)

This data package is associated with the publication “Evaluating Post-fire Watershed Response to Varying Burn Severity and Precipitation Regimes Using Fully-distributed and Integrated Hydrologic Models” submitted to Journal of Hydrology (Li et al. 2025). In this study, we employed the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), an integrated watershed model that couples surface flow, subsurface flow, and canopy biophysical processes, to investigate post-fire hydrologic responses in a few selected watersheds with varying burn severity.The data package contains the required input data (meteorological forcing, Leaf Area Index, wildfire burn severities, etc.) to run the model, configuration files, the Jupyter notebooks in Python to pre-process and post-process data, the figures in the manuscript, and the modeling output files. The variables include watershed-averaged evapotranspiration, watershed-averaged surface/subsurface/canopy water content, and river discharge at watershed outlet.The data package contains a file-level metadata that lists and describes all the files contained in the data package (ATS_flmd.csv), a data dictionary file that defines columns headers across all csv files contained in the data package (ATS_dd.csv), a data package level readme file (the current file), and four zipped folders.The ‘data’ folder provides data needed to run the model in .h5, .i2s, .xyz, .shp, and .exo formats. The sub-folders are for each data types. The ‘model’ folder provides input files (.xml format) and essential model outputs. Each sub-folder provides the files from each simulated watershed. The ‘notebooks’ folder provides the Jupyter notebooks (.ipynb format) for pre- and post- processing model files, and for producing the figures in the manuscript. The ‘figures’ folder provides the figures associated with manuscript in .pdf and .png formats.The ‘model’ folder and the ‘data’ folder have been split into 5GB-large pieces using the Linux command ‘split -b 5120m model.zip model.zip.’ and ‘split -b 5120m data.zip data.zip.’, respectively. They can be merged back using the Linux command ‘cat model.zip.* > model.zip’ and ‘cat data.zip.* > data.zip’, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Forecast of Wildfire Potential Across California USA Using a Transformer

Wildfires are a major issue facing the United States, a matter further exacerbated by an ever-changing climate. In California alone, wildfires are responsible for billions of dollars in damages and take lives each year. Accurately predicting fire danger conditions allows preparation awareness before wildfires start. Transformers are a class of deep learning models designed to identify patterns in sequential datasets. In recent years, transformers have gained popularity through their impressive performance in natural language processing and other applications of signal recognition. This analysis demonstrates the ability of a transformer with a residual connection to forecast fire danger potential over the state of California. Wildland fire potential index (WFPI) maps collected from the US Geological Survey database from January 1st 2020 to December 31st 2023 were used to tune, train and evaluate the transformer. Meteorological inputs (provided by Daymet daily weather and climatological summaries), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) (calculated from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)), and outputs from the Scott and Burgman fire behavior fuel models (to characterize maps of fuel types), were used as inputs. Our results show that a transformer can effectively emulate the US Forest Service modeled WFPI maps of California USA for four week long forecasts over the month of July, 2023, with correlations ranging from 0.85 – 0.98.

Limber, Russell [ORNL]↗

DOE OSTI2022

Wildfire aerosol deposition likely amplified a summertime Arctic phytoplankton bloom

Summertime wildfire activity is increasing in boreal forest and tundra ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere. However, the impact of long range transport and deposition of wildfire aerosols on biogeochemical cycles in the Arctic Ocean is unknown. Here, we use satellite-based ocean color data, atmospheric modeling and back trajectory analysis to investigate the transport and fate of aerosols emitted from Siberian wildfires in summer 2014 and their potential impact on phytoplankton dynamics in the Arctic Ocean. We detect large phytoplankton blooms near the North Pole (up to 82°N in the eastern Eurasian Basin). Our analysis indicates that these blooms were induced by the northward plume transport and deposition of nutrient-bearing wildfire aerosols. We estimate that these highly stratified surface waters received large amounts of wildfire-derived nitrogen, which alleviated nutrient stress in the phytoplankton community and triggered an unusually large bloom event. Our findings suggest that changes in wildfire activity may strongly influence summertime productivity in the Arctic Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2021

Earth system modeling: can we stay ahead of what's actually happening?

Over the last forty years, Earth System Models have become more and more comprehensive and detailed. They have assimilated previously independent modeling efforts in ocean circulation, atmospheric composition, the stratosphere, land surface, and the cryosphere, and are today demonstrably more skillful than earlier efforts. Yet the structural uncertainty in the latest model projections is actually increasing. Meanwhile, impacts of climate change on, for instance, wildfires, tropical cyclones and sea level, appear to be increasing faster than we have been able to predict. I will address some of the current issues at the bleeding edges of model development and the continuing importance of model evaluation.

Gavin A Schmidt↗

NASA NTRS2018

Characterization of Wildfire Emissions in California: Analysis of Airborne Measurements of Trace Gases from 2013 to 2016

Biomass burning, which includes wildfires, prescribed, and agricultural fires, is an important source of trace gases and particles, and can influence air quality on a local, regional, and global scale. Biomass burning emissions are an important source of several key trace gases including carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). With the threat of wildfire events increasing due to changes in land use, increasing population, and climate change, the importance of characterizing wildfire emissions is vital. In this work we characterize trace gas emissions from 9 wildfire events in California between 2013 – 2016, in some cases with multiple measurements performed during different burn periods of a specific wildfire. During this period airborne measurements of CO2, CH4, water vapor (H2O), ozone (O3), and formaldehyde (HCHO) were made by the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX). Located in the Bay Area of California, AJAX is a joint effort between NASA Ames Research Center and H211, LLC. AJAX makes in-situ airborne measurements of trace gases 2-4 times per month, resulting in 229 flights to date since 2011. Results presented include emission ratios (ER) of trace gases measured by AJAX during fire flights, and comparisons of ERs are made for each fire, which differ in time, location, burning intensity, and fuel type. We also use our airborne measurements to compare with photochemical grid model results to assess model approximations of plume transport and chemical evolution from select wildfires.

Parworth, Caroline L.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Analysis of Summer-Time Ozone and Precursor Species in the Southeast United States

Ozone (O3) is a greenhouse gas and toxic pollutant which plays a major role in air quality and atmospheric chemistry. The understanding and ability to model the horizontal and vertical structure of O3 mixing ratios is difficult due to the complex formation/destruction processes and transport pathways that cause large variability of O3. The Environmental Protection Agency has National Ambient Air Quality Standards for O3 set at 75 ppb with future standards proposed to be as low as 65 ppb. These lower values emphasize the need to better understand/simulate the transport processes, emission sources, and chemical processes controlling precursor species (e.g., NOx, VOCs, and CO) which influence O3 mixing ratios. The uncertainty of these controlling variables is particularly large in the southeast United States (US) which is a region impacted by multiple different emission sources of precursor species (anthropogenic and biogenic) and transport processes resulting in complex spatio-temporal O3 patterns. During this work we will evaluate O3 and precursor species in the southeast US applying models, ground-based and airborne in situ data, and lidar observations. In the summer of 2013, the UAH O3 Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) (part of the Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet)) measured vertical O3 profiles from the surface up to approximately 12 km. During this period, the lidar observed numerous periods of dynamic temporal and vertical O3 structures. In order to determine the sources/processes impacting these O3 mixing ratios we will apply the CTM GEOS-Chem (v9-02) at a 0.25 deg x 0.3125 deg resolution. Using in situ ground-based (e.g., SEARCH Network, CASTNET), airborne (e.g., NOAA WP-3D - SENEX 2013, DC-8 - SEAC4RS), and TOLNet lidar data we will first evaluate the model to determine the capability of GEOS-Chem to simulate the spatio-temporal variability of O3 in the southeast US. Secondly, we will perform model sensitivity studies in order to quantify which emission sources (e.g., anthropogenic, biogenic, lighting, wildfire) and transport processes (e.g., stratospheric, long-range, local scale) are contributing to these TOLNet-observed dynamic O3 patterns. Results from the evaluation of the model and the study of sources/processes impacting observed O3 mixing ratios will be presented.

Optical Radar↗

DOE OSTI2023

Exploring Multiscale Earth System and Human-Earth System Dynamics in the Puget Sound Region

With its mountain-to-coast hydroclimate, strong influence of Pacific Ocean weather systems and climate patterns, and unique land use history with strong rural-to-urban gradients, the Puget Sound region is a natural laboratory for studying a number of complex processes in, and interactions among, different Earth and human systems. A 1-year scoping study was initiated by the Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling program of the Department of Energy’s Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research. It was intended to elucidate and highlight the rich opportunities Puget Sound offers to advance our understanding of and ability to simulate Earth system changes and human-Earth system interactions. A literature review, multi-day community workshop, and external input were used to develop this scoping study report. The report first summarizes scientific understanding and knowledge gaps associated with major regional systems, including atmosphere and climate, the land surface, coastal and marine processes, and human systems, as well as how these systems are changing over time. It then highlights some of the most notable extreme events in the region, including heat waves, atmospheric rivers, droughts, and wildfires. Finally, key research opportunities for Earth and environmental systems modeling in, above, and around Puget Sound are highlighted.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

Soot Superaggregates from Flaming Wildfires and Their Direct Radiative Forcing

Wildfires contribute significantly to global soot emissions, yet their aerosol formation mechanisms and resulting particle properties are poorly understood and parameterized in climate models. The conventional view holds that soot is formed via the cluster-dilute aggregation mechanism in wildfires and emitted as aggregates with fractal dimension D(sub f) approximately equals 1.8 mobility diameter D(sub m) (is) less than or equal to 1 micron, and aerodynamic diameter D(sub a) (is) less than or equal to 300 nm. Here we report the ubiquitous presence of soot superaggregates (SAs) in the outflow from a major wildfire in India. SAs are porous, low-density aggregates of cluster-dilute aggregates with characteristic D(sub f) approximately equals 2.6,D(sub m) (is) greater than 1 micron, and D(sub a) is less than or equal to 300 nm that form via the cluster-dense aggregation mechanism.We present additional observations of soot SAs in wildfire smoke-laden air masses over Northern California, New Mexico, and Mexico City. We estimate that SAs contribute, per unit optical depth, up to 35% less atmospheric warming than freshly-emitted (D(sub f) approximately equals 1.8) aggregates, and approximately equals 90% more warming than the volume-equivalent spherical soot particles simulated in climate models.

SAS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Widespread Wildfires Over the Western United States in 2020 Linked to Emissions Reductions During COVID-19

Widespread wildfires struck western United States in 2020, directly damaging properties and threatening human lives. Meanwhile, the COVID-19 pandemic rapidly spread across the globe in 2020, which disrupted human activities and resulted in substantial reductions in anthropogenic emissions. Here, we investigate the effects of the emissions reductions of aerosols, precursors, and greenhouse gases during the pandemic on wildfire weather conditions in 2020 over western United States by using an earth system model together with observational data. We show that the COVID-19 emissions reductions in model experiments increased surface air temperature and decreased precipitation and relative humidity due to a weakened moisture transport, which explains 10-40% of the observed increase in the risk of wildfires over western United States in 2020. In conclusion, this study suggests that COVID-19-related abrupt emissions reductions have an unexpected influence on wildfires, highlighting a different but important role of human activities in affecting wildfire risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2023

Some Applications of SiFSAP for Wildfires, Weather and Atmospheric Dynamics Studies

The Single Field of View (SFOV) Sounder Atmospheric Product (SiFSAP) derived from Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) on SNPP and JPSS have a spatial resolution ( ~14.5 km) better than most global weather and climate models. Most recent improvement in the quality of these products enables us to use these high-resolution observation-based sounding data for air quality, weather and atmospheric dynamics studies. A few cases studies through a synergistic use of SiFSAP from S-NPP and J-1 and the reanalysis data from ERA5 and MERRA-2 will be presented, which include a process-oriented analysis of (1) a stratospheric intrusion (SI) event occurred on June 11-13, 2017 in the southwestern US, (2) one extreme cold air break (CAO) episode occurred on 27-31 January 2019 across much of the US Midwest and its impact from stratospheric downward transport, and (3) dynamic transport of carbon monoxide (CO) associated with Australia’s unprecedented fire from the end of 2019 to early 2020. These examples will demonstrate the value of SiFSAP for weather, atmospheric dynamics, air quality, wildfires studies and for model evaluations.

Xiaozhen (Shawn) Xiong↗

DOE OSTI2026

The critical role of soil moisture in compound hazards

Soil moisture regulates the exchange of energy, water, and carbon across land–vegetation–atmosphere interfaces. Extremes in soil moisture can amplify natural hazards through interactions with diverse Earth system processes. Despite its mechanistic importance, soil moisture remains underrepresented in hazard research and predictive frameworks. Here, in this study, we review our current understanding of the role of soil moisture in the evolution and onset of diverse compound hazards by synthesizing the latest findings from observational and modelling studies. We highlight key soil moisture mechanisms, including atmospheric feedbacks that amplify drought–heatwave–wildfire events, precipitation couplings that promote clustered storms, and threshold responses that drive vegetation die-offs, trigger landslides, and induce flooding. Persistent challenges in observational data, model representation and operational implementation have limited the integration of soil moisture into hazard early-warning systems. Addressing these gaps through advances in observations, data assimilation, and physics-based and data-driven modelling will enhance hazard prediction and preparedness in a rapidly changing world.

Li, Chuxuan [University of California, Los Angeles↗

DOE OSTI2023

Incorporating an Interactive Fire Plume-Rise Model in the DOE's Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 1 (E3SMv1) and Examining Aerosol Radiative Effect

The vertical distribution of biomass burning aerosol (BBA) is important in regulating their impacts on weather and climate. The plume-rise process affects the injection height of BBA and interacts with the air parcel lifting and cloud processes. However, these processes are not represented in most global climate models. In this study, we replaced the fixed vertical profiles of monthly BBA emissions in the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) with an interactive fire plume-rise model. The vertical distribution of BBA emissions was calculated as a function of ambient thermodynamic conditions from the host E3SMv1, with distributions of fire sizes and sensible heat fluxes derived from the observations. The maximum fire radiative power (FRP) technique was used to determine the fire size. Scaling-FRP technique is used to calculate the wildfire heat release. Daily BBA emission, superimposed with a fire diurnal cycle retrieved from the satellite observation, was included in model simulations. The model shows improved agreement with satellite retrievals and in situ measurement during the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Wildfire Experiment for Cloud chemistry, Aerosol absorption, and Nitrogen campaign. The model-observation comparison demonstrates the importance of the plume-rise model and fire diurnal cycle assumption in determining the BBA fields. We also find that E3SMv1 with new features produces a larger carbonaceous aerosol burden, leading to 0.13 W m –2 warming at the top of atmosphere compared to the default E3SMv1. This highlights the importance of accurately representing the BBA injection height and indicates a no-linear nature in the BBA-induced radiative effect.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2018

Understanding Changes in Modeled Land Surface Characteristics Prior to Lightning-Initiated Holdover Fire Breakout

Lightning initiated wildfires are only 16% of the total number of wildfires within the United States, but account for 56% of the acreage burned. One of the challenges with lightning-initiated wildfires is their ability to "holdover" which means smolder for up to 2+ weeks before breaking out into a full fledged fire. This work helps characterize the percentage of holdover events due to lightning, and helps quantify changes in the land surface characteristics to help understand trends in soil moisture and vegetation stress that potentially contribute to the fire breaking out into a full wildfire.

wildfire↗