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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1992

Secondary electron yields of solar system ices

The secondary electron yields of H2O, CO2, NH3, and CH3OH ices have been measured as a function of electron beam energy in the 2- to 30-keV energy range. The ices were produced on a liquid-nitrogen-cooled cold finger and transferred under vacuum to a SEM where the yield measurements were made. The imaging capabilities of the SEM provide a means of correlating the yield measurements with the morphology of the ices and are also used to monitor charging effects. The yields were determined by measuring the amplified current from a secondary electron detector and calibrating this current signal with the amplified current signal from samples of metals with known secondary electron yields. Each of the measured yields is found to decrease with an increase in energy in the 2- to 30-keV range. Estimates are given for the maximum secondary electron yield Y(max) of each ice and the energy at which this maximum yield occurs. Implications for the charging of solar system ice grains are discussed.

Suszcynsky, David M.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Xenon Sputter Yield Measurements for Ion Thruster Materials

In this paper, we describe a technique that was used to measure total and differential sputter yields of materials important to high specific impulse ion thrusters. The heart of the technique is a quartz crystal monitor that is swept at constant radial distance from a small target region where a high current density xenon ion beam is aimed. Differential sputtering yields were generally measured over a full 180 deg arc in a plane that included the beam centerline and the normal vector to the target surface. Sputter yield results are presented for a xenon ion energy range from 0.5 to 10 keV and an angle of incidence range from 0 deg to 70 deg from the target surface normal direction for targets consisting of molybdenum, titanium, solid (Poco) graphite, and flexible graphite (grafoil). Total sputter yields are calculated using a simple integration procedure and comparisons are made to sputter yields obtained from the literature. In general, the agreement between the available data is good. As expected for heavy xenon ions, the differential and total sputter yields are found to be strong functions of angle of incidence. Significant under- and over-cosine behavior is observed at low- and high-ion energies, respectively. In addition, strong differences in differential yield behavior are observed between low-Z targets (C and Ti) and high-Z targets (Mo). Curve fits to the differential sputter yield data are provided. They should prove useful to analysts interested in predicting the erosion profiles of ion thruster components and determining where the erosion products re-deposit.

Williams, John D.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Effects of Incident Electron Fluence and Energy on the Election Yield Curves and Emission Spectra of Dielectrics

We present an experimental study of evolution of electron emission yields and spectra as a result of internal charge build up due to electron dose. Reliable total, backscattered and secondary yield curves and electron emission spectra for un-charged insulators using a low fluence, pulsed electron beam (= or < 5 microsec at = or < 3 nA/sq mm or = or < 10(exp 5) e/sq mm per pulse) with low energy electron and UV flooding to neutralize the charging between pulses. Quantifiable changes in yield curves are observed due to < 100 fC/sq mm fluences for several excellent dielectric thin film materials. We find good agreement with a phenomenological argument based on insulator charging predicted by the yield curve; this includes an approximately linear decrease in the magnitude of the yield as incident energies approach the crossover energies and an exponential decrease in yield as accumulated internal charge reduces the landing energy to asymptotically approach a steady state surface charge and unity yield. We also find that the exponential decay of yield curves with fluence exhibit an energy dependent decay constant, alpha(E), over a broad range of incident energies below, between and above the crossover energies. Finally, we present some preliminary physics-based models for this energy dependence and attempt to relate our charging measurements to knowledge of how charge is deposited within the insulator, the mechanisms for charge trapping and transport, and how the profile of trapped charge affects the transport and emission of charges from insulators.

Sim, Alec↗
NASA NTRS2005

Evolution of the Electron Yield Curves of Insulators as a Function of Impinging Electron Fluence and Energy

Electron emission and concomitant change accumulation near the surface of insulators in central to understanding spacecraft charging. We present a study of changes in electron emission yields as a result of internal charge build up due to electron dose. Evolution of total, backscattered and secondary yield results over a broad range of incident energies are presented for two representative insulators, Kapton(trademark) and Al2O3. Reliable yield curves for uncharged insulators are measured and quantifiable changes in yield are observed due to < 100 fC/sq mm fluences. We find excellent agreement with a phenomenological argument based on insulator charging predicted by the yield curve; this includes a decrease in the rate of change of the yield as incident energies approach the crossover energies and as accumulated internal charge reduces the landing energy to asymptotically approach a steady state surface charge and unity yield. We also find that the exponential decay of yield curves with fluence exhibit an energy dependent decay constant, alpha(E). Finally, we discuss physics based models for this energy dependence. To understand fluence and energy dependence of these charging processes requires knowledge of how charge is deposited within the insulator, the mechanisms for charge trapping and transport within the insulator, and how the profile of trapped charge affects the transport and emission of charges from insulators.

Sim, Alec↗
NASA NTRS2009

Atomic Oxygen Erosion Yield Prediction for Spacecraft Polymers in Low Earth Orbit

The ability to predict the atomic oxygen erosion yield of polymers based on their chemistry and physical properties has been only partially successful because of a lack of reliable low Earth orbit (LEO) erosion yield data. Unfortunately, many of the early experiments did not utilize dehydrated mass loss measurements for erosion yield determination, and the resulting mass loss due to atomic oxygen exposure may have been compromised because samples were often not in consistent states of dehydration during the pre-flight and post-flight mass measurements. This is a particular problem for short duration mission exposures or low erosion yield materials. However, as a result of the retrieval of the Polymer Erosion and Contamination Experiment (PEACE) flown as part of the Materials International Space Station Experiment 2 (MISSE 2), the erosion yields of 38 polymers and pyrolytic graphite were accurately measured. The experiment was exposed to the LEO environment for 3.95 years from August 16, 2001 to July 30, 2005 and was successfully retrieved during a space walk on July 30, 2005 during Discovery s STS-114 Return to Flight mission. The 40 different materials tested (including Kapton H fluence witness samples) were selected specifically to represent a variety of polymers used in space as well as a wide variety of polymer chemical structures. The MISSE 2 PEACE Polymers experiment used carefully dehydrated mass measurements, as well as accurate density measurements to obtain accurate erosion yield data for high-fluence (8.43 1021 atoms/sq cm). The resulting data was used to develop an erosion yield predictive tool with a correlation coefficient of 0.895 and uncertainty of +/-6.3 10(exp -25)cu cm/atom. The predictive tool utilizes the chemical structures and physical properties of polymers to predict in-space atomic oxygen erosion yields. A predictive tool concept (September 2009 version) is presented which represents an improvement over an earlier (December 2008) version.

Banks, Bruce A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Impacts of El Nino Southern Oscillation on the Global Yields of Major Crops

The monitoring and prediction of climate-induced variations in crop yields, production and export prices in major food-producing regions have become important to enable national governments in import-dependent countries to ensure supplies of affordable food for consumers. Although the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) often affects seasonal temperature and precipitation, and thus crop yields in many regions, the overall impacts of ENSO on global yields are uncertain. Here we present a global map of the impacts of ENSO on the yields of major crops and quantify its impacts on their global-mean yield anomalies. Results show that El Nino likely improves the global-mean soybean yield by 2.15.4 but appears to change the yields of maize, rice and wheat by -4.3 to +0.8. The global-mean yields of all four crops during La Nina years tend to be below normal (-4.5 to 0.0).Our findings highlight the importance of ENSO to global crop production.

Crops↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Crop Yield Change Emulator for Use in GCAM and Similar Models: Persephone v1.0

Future changes in Earth system state will impact agricultural yields and, through these changed yields, can have profound impacts on the global economy. Global gridded crop models estimate the influence of these Earth system changes on future crop yields but are often too computationally intensive to dynamically couple into global multisector economic models, such as the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) and other similar-in-scale models. Yet, generalizing a faster site-specific crop model’s results to be used globally will introduce inaccuracies, and the question of which model to use is unclear given the wide variation in yield response across crop models. To examine the feedback loop among socioeconomics, Earth system changes, and crop yield changes, rapidly generated yield responses with some quantification of crop response uncertainty are desirable. The Persephone v1.0 response functions presented in this work are based on the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP) sensitivity test data set and are focused on providing GCAM and similar models with a tractable number of rapid to evaluate dynamic yield response functions corresponding to a range of the yield response sensitivities seen in the C3MP data set. With the Persephone response functions, a new variety of agricultural impact experiments will be open to GCAM and other economic models: for example, examining the economic impacts of a multi-year drought in a key agricultural region and how economic changes in response to the drought can, in turn, impact the drought.

Snyder, Abigail↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of Methods for In-line Monitoring of Yield Stress During the Transfer of Radioactive Waste - 20435

Radioactive waste slurries at the Savannah River Site (SRS) and Hanford often behave as non-Newtonian fluids with a yield stress. The yield stress increases the size of equipment needed to transport or mix these slurries and can increase the risk of process upsets. This property is often measured by collection of samples and transportation to a laboratory, which can increase the risk of personnel exposure and even change the rheology. In addition, slurry rheology has been observed to change with time. Real-time in-line monitoring (RTIM) of rheological properties of slurries can have substantial benefits to critical processes which are currently in operation or will be part of future plans in Department of Energy (DOE) complex processes. The need for an appropriate RTIM technology that can potentially minimize or eliminate numerous sampling operations was recently identified. This research at Florida International University focuses on addressing the need for a reliable RTIM technology at US Department of Energy sites. The objective of this work is to investigate and develop appropriate and reliable technologies that can perform accurate and easy measurements of yield stress with minimal changes to the flow conditions at US Department of Energy sites. Use of ultrasound in longitudinal and shear modes was considered as a method for monitoring of yield stress variations with no disturbance to the flow. Measurement of shear wave velocity (in shear mode) and monitoring of sound velocity variations with start of flow from rest (longitudinal mode) are the underlying principles. Measurement of pressure loss and liquid rise (due to static differential pressure) during flow of slurries were two other methods that were considered and investigated. In addition, analysis of stability depth of a penetrometer in slurry medium (penetrometer method) revealed a potential suitability. This paper presents efforts associated with investigation of different methods mentioned earlier for kaolin-water mixtures at different concentrations. Theoretical analysis showed that all methods under investigation were capable of monitoring yield stress in a desirable range of 0 to 70 pascal. A bench scale test setup was constructed for investigation of pressure loss and liquid rise methods. Simulants at different concentrations were created for initial testing campaigns. For ultrasonic testing, effects of yield stress on sound propagation speed in longitudinal and shear modes were investigated for simulants placed inside PVC pipes. Parameters such as simulant concentration and pipe diameter were varied to find optimal values. It was found that spacing (or medium thickness) of 1/8 inch or less was necessary to observe echoes with sufficient strength. In addition, a significant effect of yield stress on sound propagation velocity was observed. For the liquid rise method, kaolin-water simulant at 1.17 specific gravity was pumped through a 1/4 inch pipe and liquid height was measured in a vertical riser branching off a three-way connection. Static gauge pressure was varied within [0.3 to 1.1] psi range by increase of pumping pressure and flow. Results showed consistent yield stress data within 10% deviation from values reported by a rheometer. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning to predict biomass sorghum yields under future climate scenarios

Crop yield modeling is critical in the design of national strategies for agricultural production, particularly in the context of a changing climate. Forecasting yields of bioenergy crops at fine spatial resolutions can help to evaluate near-term and long-term pathways for scaling up bio-based fuel and chemical production, and for understanding the impacts of abiotic stressors such as severe droughts and temperature extremes on potential biomass supply. In this work we used a large dataset of 28,364 Sorghum bicolor yield samples (uniquely identified by county and year of observation), environmental variables, and multiple approaches to analyze historical trends in sorghum productivity across the USA. We selected the most accurate machine learning approach (a variation of the random forest approach) to predict future trends in sorghum yields under four greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios and two irrigation regimes. We identified irrigation practices, vapor pressure deficit, and time (a proxy for technological improvement) as the most important predictors of sorghum productivity. Our results showed a decreasing trend of sorghum yields over future years (on average 2.7% from 2018 to 2099), with greater decline under a high GHG emissions scenario (3.8%) and in the absence of irrigation (4.6%). Geographically, we observed the steepest predicted declines in the Great Lakes (8.2%), Upper Midwest (7.5%), and Heartland (6.7%) regions. Our study demonstrates the use of machine learning to identify environmental controllers of sorghum biomass yield and predict yields with reasonable accuracy. These results can inform the development of more realistic biomass supply projections for bioenergy if sorghum production is scaled up. (c) 2020 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tuning crosslinking of hybrid preceramic polymers in vat photopolymerization toward controlled ceramic yields

Control of preceramic polymer crosslinking for UV-curable processing is essential for fine 3D printing with high ceramic conversion for sustainable polymer-derived ceramics (PDC) engineering. While various factors influencing ceramic yield have been studied, the systematic exploration of the relationship between crosslinking and ceramic yield, especially when crosslinking increases volatile elements, remains open for further investigation. This study addresses this gap by utilizing vat photopolymerization (VP) additive manufacturing (AM) as a versatile platform for controlling preceramic crosslinking and ceramic yield. By rationally designing and tuning the photochemical crosslinking through digital light processing (DLP), we demonstrate that the ceramic yield can be enhanced from 64% to over 86%, even with added volatile elements. We reveal that the post-pyrolysis ceramic yield can be closely correlated with the pre-pyrolysis crosslinking of the preceramic network represented by its stiffness. This correlation thereby suggests a fast, energy-efficient, non-destructive methodology to predict and improve ceramic yield. Combined with these findings, our one-pot thiol-ene hybridization of polycarbosilane and polycarbosiloxane via DLP offers an exemplary method to generate hybrid preceramic polymers with tailored material properties toward target applications, and potentially even higher ceramic yields. This study thus contributes to achieving better resource- and energy-efficient preceramic polymer and PDC processing routes toward sustainable, advanced organic–inorganic materials manufacturing.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2015

Testing actinide fission yield treatment in CINDER90 for use in MCNP6 burnup calculations

Most of the development of the MCNPX/6 burnup capability focused on features that were applied to the Boltzman transport or used to prepare coefficients for use in CINDER90, with little change to CINDER90 or the CINDER90 data. Though a scheme exists for best solving the coupled Boltzman and Bateman equations, the most significant approximation is that the employed nuclear data are correct and complete. Thus, the CINDER90 library file contains 60 different actinide fission yields encompassing 36 fissionable actinides (thermal, fast, high energy and spontaneous fission). Fission reaction data exists for more than 60 actinides and as a result, fission yield data must be approximated for actinides that do not possess fission yield information. Several types of approximations are used for estimating fission yields for actinides which do not possess explicit fission yield data. The objective of this study is to test whether or not certain approximations of fission yield selection have any impact on predictability of major actinides and fission products. Further we assess which other fission products, available in MCNP6 Tier 3, result in the largest difference in production. Because the CINDER90 library file is in ASCII format and therefore easily amendable, we assess reasons for choosing, as well as compare actinide and major fission product prediction for the H. B. Robinson benchmark for, three separate fission yield selection methods: (1) the current CINDER90 library file method (Base); (2) the element method (Element); and (3) the isobar method (Isobar). Results show that the three methods tested result in similar prediction of major actinides, Tc-99 and Cs-137; however, certain fission products resulted in significantly different production depending on the method of choice.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Diverging climate response of corn yield and carbon use efficiency across the U.S.

Abstract In this paper, we developed an open-source package to analyze the overall trend and responses of both carbon use efficiency (CUE) and corn yield to climate factors for the contiguous United States. Our algorithm enables automatic retrieval of remote sensing data through the Google Earth Engine (GEE) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) agricultural production data at the county level through application programming interface (API). Firstly, we integrated satellite products of net primary productivity and gross primary productivity based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor, and climatic variables from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Secondly, we calculated CUE and commonly used climate metrics. Thirdly, we investigated the spatial heterogeneity of these variables. We applied a random forest algorithm to identify the key climate drivers of CUE and crop yield, and estimated the responses of CUE and yield to climate variability using the spatial moving window regression across the U.S. Our results show that growing degree days (GDD) has the highest predictive power for both CUE and yield, while extreme degree days (EDD) is the least important explanatory variable. Moreover, we observed that in most areas of the U.S., yield increases or stays the same with higher GDD and precipitation. However, CUE decreases with higher GDD in the north and shows more mixed and fragmented interactions in the south. Notably, there are some exceptions where yield is negatively correlated with precipitation in the Missouri and Mississippi River Valleys. As global warming continues, we anticipate a decrease in CUE throughout the vast northern part of the country, despite the possibility of yield remaining stable or increasing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

How do drought and heat affect the response of soybean seed yield to elevated O 3 ? An analysis of 15 seasons of free–air O 3 concentration enrichment studies

The coincidence of rising ozone concentrations ([O 3 ]), increasing global temperatures, and drought episodes is expected to become more intense and frequent in the future. A better understanding of the responses of crop yield to elevated [O 3 ] under different levels of drought and high temperature stress is, therefore, critical for projecting future food production potential. Using a 15-year open-air field experiment in central Illinois, we assessed the impacts of elevated [O 3 ] coupled with variation in growing season temperature and water availability on soybean seed yield. Thirteen soybean cultivars were exposed to a wide range of season-long elevated [O 3 ] in the field using free-air O 3 concentration enrichment. Elevated [O3] treatments reduced soybean seed yield from as little as 5.3% in 2005 to 35.2% in 2010. Although cultivars differed in yield response to elevated [O 3 ] (R), ranging from 17.5% to –76.4%, there was a significant negative correlation between R and O 3 dosage. Soybean cultivars showed greater seed yield losses to elevated [O 3 ] when grown at drier or hotter conditions compared to wetter or cooler years, because the hotter and drier conditions were associated with greater O 3 treatment. However, year-to-year variation in weather conditions did not influence the sensitivity of soybean seed yield to a given increase in [O 3 ]. Collectively, this study quantitatively demonstrates that, although drought conditions or warmer temperatures led to greater O 3 treatment concentrations and O 3 -induced seed yield reduction, drought and temperature stress did not alter soybean's sensitivity to O 3 . Our results have important implications for modeling the effects of rising O 3 pollution on crops and suggest that altering irrigation practices to mitigate O 3 stress may not be effective in reducing crop sensitivity to O 3 .

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Genotype × environment interaction analysis of North American shrub willow yield trials confirms superior performance of triploid hybrids

Abstract Development of dedicated bioenergy crop production systems will require accurate yield estimates, which will be important for determining many of the associated environmental and economic impacts of their production. Shrub willow ( Salix spp) is being promoted in areas of the USA and Canada due to its adaption to cool climates and wide genetic diversity available for breeding improvement. Willow breeding in North America is in an early stage, and selection of elite genotypes for commercialization will require testing across broad geographic regions to gain an understanding of how shrub willow interacts with the environment. We analyzed a dataset of first‐rotation shrub willow yields of 16 genotypes across 10 trial environments in the USA and Canada for genotype‐by‐environment interactions using the additive main effects and multiplicative interactions ( AMMI ) model. Mean genotype yields ranged from 5.22 to 8.58 oven‐dry Mg ha −1 yr −1 . Analysis of the main effect of genotype showed that one round of breeding improved yields by as much as 20% over check cultivars and that triploid hybrids, most notably Salix viminalis × S. miyabeana , exhibited superior yields. We also found important variability in genotypic response to environments, which suggests specific adaptability could be exploited among 16 genotypes for yield gains. Strong positive correlations were found between environment main effects and AMMI parameters and growing environment temperatures. These findings demonstrate yield improvements are possible in one generation and will be important for developing cultivar recommendations and for future breeding efforts.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Winter hardiness of Miscanthus (I): Overwintering ability and yield of new Miscanthus × giganteus genotypes in Illinois and Arkansas

Abstract Miscanthus ×giganteus (M×g) is an important bioenergy feedstock crop. However, biomass production of Miscanthus has been largely limited to one sterile triploid cultivar, M×g ‘1993‐1780’, which we demonstrate can have insufficient overwintering ability in temperate regions with cold winters. Key objectives for Miscanthus breeding include greater biomass yield and better adaptation to different production environments than M×g ‘1993‐1780’. In this study, we evaluated 13 M×g genotypes, including ‘1993‐1780’, in replicated field trials conducted for three years at Urbana, IL; Dixon Springs, IL; and Jonesboro, AR. Entries were phenotyped for first‐winter overwintering ability and plant hardiness (ratio of new tillers to old), yield in years 2 and 3, and first heading date, plant height, and culm number in years 1 and 2. We observed substantial variation for overwintering ability and biomass yield among the M×g genotypes tested and identified ones with better overwintering ability and/or higher biomass yield than ‘1993‐1780’. Most entries at Urbana were damaged during the first winter, whereas few or no entries were damaged at Dixon Springs or Jonesboro. However, M×g ‘Nagara’ was entirely undamaged during the first winter and produced high biomass yields at Urbana (19.7 Mg/ha in year 2 and 20.9 Mg/ha in year 3), whereas M×g ‘1993‐1780’ exhibited an overwintering loss of 29%, had severely damaged survivors (hardiness score of 25%), and reduced biomass yield (8.1 Mg/ha in year 2 and 16.2 Mg/ha in year 3), indicating that M×g ‘Nagara’ could be a better choice in hardiness zone 5 (average annual minimum air temperature of −23.3 to −28.9°C) or lower. In Dixon Springs, where M×g ‘1993‐1780’ was undamaged by the first winter, it yielded highest among all the entries (21.6 Mg/ha in year 3), though not significantly higher than M×g ‘Nagara’ (18.2 Mg/ha in year 3).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long‐term yields in annual and perennial bioenergy crops in the Midwestern United States

Abstract Many yield predictions in perennial bioenergy species have been made based on data collected during the establishment phase of growth or a limited number of long‐term studies. Few studies compare multiple perennial crops with the dominant agricultural vegetation of the landscape over long time periods. Here, we present the results of 11 years of perennial crop management on fertile agricultural soils in central Illinois, compared with conventional row crop maize/soybean ( Zea mays L., Glycine max L.) production. We examined the long‐term productivity and drought susceptibility of Miscanthus x giganteus Greef et. Deu. ex. Hodkinson et Renvoize (miscanthus), Panicum virgatum L., Cave‐in‐Rock cultivar (switchgrass), and a native prairie mix, in contrast to annual maize/soybean agriculture. Long‐term yields for miscanthus and switchgrass failed to reach initial predictions made during the establishment phase; however, in miscanthus, the 11 th year of production shows little progressive yield loss with age, exceeding the modeled limit for the onset of age‐related decline. Harvest timing and differences in yields from hand and machine harvests in perennial crops likely contribute to overestimates of potential yields. Application of fertilizer to mature miscanthus resulted in significant increases in yield after a severe drought, though modeled effects of management and drought in miscanthus point to a more complex mechanism for yield response.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Update of the Cesium-136 Cumulative Fission Yields at Multiple Neutron Energies

Nuclear data is foundational to several fields, including nuclear forensics. Nuclear forensics investigations of fission events, relies heavily on the cumulative fission yields, however several highly useful fission products suffer from very poor nuclear data including cumulative fission yields or associated uncertainties in that value. Cesium-136 is a highly relevant example of this issue, where the cumulative fission yield may be accurate but its uncertainty high enough to preclude its usefulness. In this work we evaluate and calculate an updated cumulative fission yield for 136 Cs for 235 U, 238 U, and 239 Pu at multiple neutron energies or sources using data obtained from irradiation campaigns. In all cases these newly determined cumulative fission yields provided small changes to the actual fission yields but had dramatic improvements to the uncertainty in those yields. These improvements in uncertainty will enable nuclear forensics end users to use 136 Cs data with more confidence.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrating multi-modal remote sensing, deep learning, and attention mechanisms for yield prediction in plant breeding experiments

In both plant breeding and crop management, interpretability plays a crucial role in instilling trust in AI-driven approaches and enabling the provision of actionable insights. The primary objective of this research is to explore and evaluate the potential contributions of deep learning network architectures that employ stacked LSTM for end-of-season maize grain yield prediction. A secondary aim is to expand the capabilities of these networks by adapting them to better accommodate and leverage the multi-modality properties of remote sensing data. In this study, a multi-modal deep learning architecture that assimilates inputs from heterogeneous data streams, including high-resolution hyperspectral imagery, LiDAR point clouds, and environmental data, is proposed to forecast maize crop yields. The architecture includes attention mechanisms that assign varying levels of importance to different modalities and temporal features that, reflect the dynamics of plant growth and environmental interactions. The interpretability of the attention weights is investigated in multi-modal networks that seek to both improve predictions and attribute crop yield outcomes to genetic and environmental variables. This approach also contributes to increased interpretability of the model's predictions. The temporal attention weight distributions highlighted relevant factors and critical growth stages that contribute to the predictions. The results of this study affirm that the attention weights are consistent with recognized biological growth stages, thereby substantiating the network's capability to learn biologically interpretable features. Accuracies of the model's predictions of yield ranged from 0.82-0.93 R 2 ref in this genetics-focused study, further highlighting the potential of attention-based models. Further, this research facilitates understanding of how multi-modality remote sensing aligns with the physiological stages of maize. The proposed architecture shows promise in improving predictions and offering interpretable insights into the factors affecting maize crop yields, while demonstrating the impact of data collection by different modalities through the growing season. By identifying relevant factors and critical growth stages, the model's attention weights provide valuable information that can be used in both plant breeding and crop management. The consistency of attention weights with biological growth stages reinforces the potential of deep learning networks in agricultural applications, particularly in leveraging remote sensing data for yield prediction. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that investigates the use of hyperspectral and LiDAR UAV time series data for explaining/interpreting plant growth stages within deep learning networks and forecasting plot-level maize grain yield using late fusion modalities with attention mechanisms.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗