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Results for “Yield Modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Kinetics Modeling for Design of Continuous Enzymatic Hydrolysis

Enzymatic hydrolysis of cellulose to monomeric sugars continues to be a limiting step in cost-effectively producing sugar and fermentation-based biofuels from biomass. In particular, the high cost of enzymes coupled with the long time-scale of reaction pose challenges to economic viability. Performing enzymatic hydrolysis in a continuous mode with enzyme recycle may provide a path towards substantially reduced costs for sugar production, but design and analysis are complicated by a lack of suitable kinetics models. Computationally attainable models, such as fractal-based models, require knowledge of the reaction-history of the biomass, and are thus only suitable for describing the batch reactions from which they are derived. Fundamental models, while potentially more generalizable, are often too computationally intensive to use in process or reactor modeling. In this work, a phenomenological rate model is proposed based on a two-phase substrate representation. Good agreement is seen between batch and continuous enzymatic hydrolysis (CEH) experiment data, which validates the model and enables us to solve for reactor design parameters, such as CEH reactor size and stream flow rates, based on process variables like yield. This model is integrated with techno-economic analysis software to explore economic sensitivities. Important design optimizations and tradeoffs are identified and quantified, including the relative cost imposed by rate slowdown from sugar inhibition versus the cost to remove and concentrate sugars at a lower concentration. It also identifies, high-leverage avenues for further exploration, such as increasing the maximum feasible solids concentration, and sustaining high membrane flux and reliability.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting Field Efficiency of Round-Baling Operations in High-Yielding Biomass Crops

Model simulations for bioenergy harvest planning need to utilize equipment-capacity relationships for equipment operating under the high-yield conditions typical of a biomass crop. These performance assumptions have a direct bearing on the estimates of machine capacity, the number of machines required, and, therefore, the cost to fulfill the biorefinery plant demands for a given harvest window. Typically, two major issues in these models have been poorly understood: the available time required to complete the harvest operation (often called probability of workdays) and the capacity of the harvest equipment as impacted by yield. Simulations use annual yield estimates, which incorporate weather events, to demonstrate year-to-year effects. Some simulations also incorporate potential yield increases from genetically modified energy crops. There are limited field performance data for most current forage equipment used for harvesting high-yield biomass crops. Analysis shows that the impact of wrap/eject time for round balers resulted in a 50% reduction in achieved throughput capacity (Mg/h). After the maximum throughput is reached, the cost of the round bale operation (3.23 USD/Mg) is double that of the large-square baler (1.63 USD/Mg). The round baler achieved throughput capacity is 50% less (32.7 Mg/h compared to 71.0 Mg/h) than the large-square baler.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Geometric pumping and dephasing at topological phase transition

A measure-preserving formalism (MPF) is constructed and applied to spin/band models, which yield observations about pumping. It occurs at the topological phase transition, i.e., a Z 2 flip, suggesting that Z 2 can imply bulk effects. The model's asymptotic behavior is analytically solved via MPF. The pumping probability is geometric, fractional, and has a ceiling of $\frac{1}{2}$. Intriguingly, theorems are proved about occurrence conditions, which are linked to the system's dimension and the distinction between rational and irrational numbers. Finally, experimental detection is discussed.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven closure modeling for hypersonic turbulent flows

The Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) equations remain a workhorse technology for simulating compressible fluid flows of practical interest. Due to model-form errors, however, RANS models can yield erroneous predictions that preclude their use on mission-critical problems. This report summarizes work performed from FY22-FY24 focused on improving RANS models for hypersonic flows using data-driven modeling and scientific machine learning. In this work we: 1. Investigate the current capabilities of RANS models in Sandia’s parallel aerodynamics and re-entry code (SPARC) for hypersonic flows with a focus on shock boundary layer interactions (SBLIs), 2. Assess several established corrections that exist in the literature aimed at improving predictions for SBLIs, 3. Develop improved models for the Reynolds stress tensor using tensor-basis neural networks, 4. Develop a neural-network-based variable turbulent Prandtl number model to reduce errors in wall heating in SBLIs. 5. Begin future investigations including employing the LIFE framework to improve wall heating predictions in SBLIs as well as the ensemble Kalman filter. We find that current RANS models in SPARC are deficient for complex SBLI flows. In particular, no current model jointly predicts wall heat flux, wall shear stress, and wall pressure with reasonable accuracy. Existing corrections help, but do not alleviate this issue altogether. The development of improved models for the Reynolds stress tensor via tensor-basis neural networks results in more predictive RANS models across a suite of low-speed and high-speed cases. For hypersonic boundary layers, the inclusion of the wall-normal Reynolds stress via TBNNs has an appreciable impact on the wall-normal momentum balance and wall quantities. However, we find that improvements to the Reynolds stress tensor do not address the over-prediction in wall heat flux in SBLIs. We find that a neural-network-based variable turbulent Prandtl number model systematically and substantially improves wall heating predictions for a range of SBLI cases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A quantitative risk assessment framework for fault reactivation in underground hydrogen storage: Coupled simulation and deep learning approach

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) is emerging as a critical solution for large-scale energy storage. However, like all subsurface fluid injection activities, UHS poses the risk of injection-induced fault reactivation. Accurate risk assessment is essential to ensuring the safety and efficiency of UHS operations. This study presents the development of deep-learning surrogate models for fault reactivation prediction in UHS, trained on a comprehensive database of fully coupled fluid flow-geomechanics simulations. Our findings reveal that analytical models often yield unreliable estimates, with errors up to 54% in the allowable injection pressure, potentially leading to a 40% reduction in UHS operational capacity. The developed surrogate models were incorporated into a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) framework, enabling probabilistic evaluation of fault reactivation risk while accounting for uncertainties in the input variables. Site-specific features, such as horizontal stress gradients, fault’s dip and strike angles, and operational parameters like bottom-hole injection pressure and well-fault distance, were identified as the primary drivers of fault reactivation across various stress regimes. Whereas other hydraulic, geological, and poroelastic reservoir properties were found to have a secondary impact. Notably, we observed that the risk of fault reactivation for a critically oriented fault with a static friction coefficient greater than 0.55 remains below 10% in a normal faulting stress regime. However, the risk significantly increases as the stress regime transitions from normal to strike-slip and ultimately to reverse faulting conditions. These findings underscore the importance of rigorous site characterization and comprehensive QRA evaluations to optimize UHS performance and minimize geomechanical risks.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identifying Key Drivers of Wildfires in the Contiguous US Using Machine Learning and Game Theory Interpretation

Abstract Understanding the complex interrelationships between wildfire and its environmental and anthropogenic controls is crucial for wildfire modeling and management. Although machine learning (ML) models have yielded significant improvements in wildfire predictions, their limited interpretability has been an obstacle for their use in advancing understanding of wildfires. This study builds an ML model incorporating predictors of local meteorology, land‐surface characteristics, and socioeconomic variables to predict monthly burned area at grid cells of 0.25° × 0.25° resolution over the contiguous United States. Besides these predictors, we construct and include predictors representing the large‐scale circulation patterns conducive to wildfires, which largely improves the temporal correlations in several regions by 14%–44%. The Shapley additive explanation is introduced to quantify the contributions of the predictors to burned area. Results show a key role of longitude and latitude in delineating fire regimes with different temporal patterns of burned area. The model captures the physical relationship between burned area and vapor pressure deficit, relative humidity (RH), and energy release component (ERC), in agreement with the prior findings. Aggregating the contribution of predictor variables of all the grids by region, analyses show that ERC is the major contributor accounting for 14%–27% to large burned areas in the western US. In contrast, there is no leading factor contributing to large burned areas in the eastern US, although large‐scale circulation patterns featuring less active upper‐level ridge‐trough and low RH two months earlier in winter contribute relatively more to large burned areas in spring in the southeastern US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ensuring thermodynamic consistency with invertible coarse-graining

Coarse-grained models are a core computational tool in theoretical chemistry and biophysics. A judicious choice of a coarse-grained model can yield physical insights by isolating the essential degrees of freedom that dictate the thermodynamic properties of a complex, condensed-phase system. The reduced complexity of the model typically leads to lower computational costs and more efficient sampling compared with atomistic models. Designing “good” coarse-grained models is an art. Generally, the mapping from fine-grained configurations to coarse-grained configurations itself is not optimized in any way; instead, the energy function associated with the mapped configurations is. In this work, we explore the consequences of optimizing the coarse-grained representation alongside its potential energy function. We use a graph machine learning framework to embed atomic configurations into a low-dimensional space to produce efficient representations of the original molecular system. Because the representation we obtain is no longer directly interpretable as a real-space representation of the atomic coordinates, we also introduce an inversion process and an associated thermodynamic consistency relation that allows us to rigorously sample fine-grained configurations conditioned on the coarse-grained sampling. We illustrate that this technique is robust, recovering the first two moments of the distribution of several observables in proteins such as chignolin and alanine dipeptide.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Generative design of de novo proteins based on secondary-structure constraints using an attention-based diffusion model

We report two generative deep-learning models that predict amino acid sequences and 3D protein structures on the basis of secondary-structure design objectives via either the overall content or the per-residue structure. Both models are robust regarding imperfect inputs and offer de novo design capacity because they can discover new protein sequences not yet discovered from natural mechanisms or systems. The residue-level secondary-structure design model generally yields higher accuracy and more diverse sequences. These findings suggest unexplored opportunities for protein designs and functional outcomes within the vast amino acid sequences beyond known proteins. Our models, based on an attention-based diffusion model and trained on a dataset extracted from experimentally known 3D protein structures, offer numerous downstream applications in the conditional generative design of various biological or engineering systems. Future work could include additional conditioning and an exploration of other functional properties of the generated proteins for various properties beyond structural objectives.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling potential air temperature reductions yielded by cool roofs and urban irrigation in the Kansas City Metropolitan Area

In this work, we evaluate two mitigation strategies for urban heat island (UHI) in the Kansas City Metropolitan Area (KCMA). Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, we assess the potential benefits of reflective “cool” roofs and urban irrigation on air temperature in typical summer conditions between 2011 and 2015, and during six of the strongest historical heat waves from 2005 to 2016. Under the typical summer conditions, we simulate 2-m air temperature for 10 summer weeks, finding average daytime (07:00–19:00 local time) temperature reductions of 0.08 and 0.28 °C for cool roofs and urban irrigation, respectively. During the six heat-wave episodes, we find daytime temperature reductions of 0.02 and 0.26 °C for the two scenarios, similar to those under typical summer conditions. Our results suggest that urban irrigation can be more efficient than cool roofs in mitigating UHI in metropolitan regions where the majority of the land cover is comprised of areas with low urban (i.e., non-vegetated) fractions. Finally, we find the alteration of surface conditions due to enhanced roof albedos influences precipitation within the WRF simulation, in particular during the heat waves. Further research would be necessary to determine the robustness of this last finding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Asynchronous Reciprocal Coupling of Martini 2.2 Coarse-Grained and CHARMM36 All-Atom Simulations in an Automated Multiscale Framework

The appeal of multiscale modeling approaches is predicated on the promise of combinatorial synergy. However, this promise can only be realized when distinct scales are combined with reciprocal consistency. Here, we consider multiscale molecular dynamics (MD) simulations that combine the accuracy and macromolecular flexibility accessible to fixed-charge all-atom (AA) representations with the sampling speed accessible to reductive, coarse-grained (CG) representations. AA-to-CG conversions are relatively straightforward because deterministic routines with unique outcomes are achievable. Conversely, CG-to-AA conversions have many solutions due to a surge in the number of degrees of freedom. While automated tools for biomolecular CG-to-AA transformation exist, we find that one popular option, called Backward, is prone to stochastic failure and the AA models that it does generate frequently have compromised protein structure and incorrect stereochemistry. Although these shortcomings can likely be circumvented by human intervention in isolated instances, automated multiscale coupling requires reliable and robust scale conversion. In this work, we detail an extension to Multiscale Machine-learned Modeling Infrastructure (MuMMI), including an improved CG-to-AA conversion tool called sinceCG. This tool is reliable (~98% weakly correlated repeat success rate), automatable (no unrecoverable hangs), and yields AA models that generally preserve protein secondary structure and maintain correct stereochemistry. We describe how the MuMMI framework identifies CG system configurations of interest, converts them to AA representations, and simulates them at the AA scale while on-the-fly analyses provide feedback to update CG parameters. Application to systems containing the peripheral membrane protein RAS and proximal components of RAF kinase on complex eight-component lipid bilayers with ~1.5 million atoms is discussed in the context of MuMMI.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Neutron-producing gas puff Z-pinch experiments on a fast, low-impedance, 0.5 MA linear transformer driver

A study on the neutron production from single and double gas puff Z-pinches on the CESZAR linear transformer driver with ~0.45 MA current and 170 ns rise time is presented. Total neutron yield measurements made with a LaBr activation detector are compared for three configurations, using a double nozzle setup. When a single, hollow, deuterium gas shell was used, reliable implosions could only be attained at higher load mass than the optimal value to match implosion time with the driver rise time, with neutron yields of ~10 6 per pulse. The use of a double gas puff configuration with a deuterium center jet allowed a reduction in the shell density and operation closer to machine-matched conditions, recording up to (4.1 ± 0.3) × 10 7 neutrons/pulse when either Kr or D 2 was used in the shell. For a comparable mass and implosion time, using a higher atomic-number gas in the outer shell results in more unstable plasma surface and smaller plasma radius at the location of instability bubbles, which, however, do not seem to consistently correlate with a higher neutron yield. Comparing implosion dynamics with models and neutron yields with literature scaling suggests that the machine current is not well coupled to the plasma during the final stages of compression. Optimizing current and energy coupling to the pinched plasma is critical to improving performance, particularly in low-impedance drivers.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Process‐Oriented Calibration of a Turbulence Scheme in the DOE's Global Storm‐Resolving Model Using Machine Learning

A process‐oriented calibration framework is developed for the Simplified Higher‐Order Closure (SHOC) turbulence scheme in DOE's Simple Cloud Resolving E3SM Atmospheric Model (SCREAM). This framework leverages machine learning surrogates and observational constraints to efficiently calibrate SHOC adjustable parameters across two convective regimes: clear‐sky dry convective boundary layer and fair‐weather shallow cumulus clouds from ARM observations. We use perturbed‐parameter ensembles of a doubly periodic version of SCREAM to train surrogates and apply Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling guided by cost functions based on benchmarking large‐eddy simulations and observations to identify optimized parameter sets that perform well in both regimes. The calibrated SHOC parameters substantially improve boundary‐layer turbulence and cloud boundaries, and modeled cloud fraction and radiative effects align better with observations than the default. These results demonstrate that combining multiple process‐specific convective regimes with machine‐learning surrogates can reduce parametric uncertainties and yield a model more faithful to cloud–turbulence interactions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Baryogenesis via the CKM Matrix with Minimal Flavor Violation

It is often claimed Standard Model CP violation is insufficient for baryogenesis. We present a counterexample using minimal flavor violation (MFV) in which all CP-violating effects arise from the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa (CKM) matrix. Our scenario involves a leptoquark field with MFV-preserving interactions whose decays to Standard Model particles yield the observed baryon asymmetry in the early universe. Unlike previous efforts to realize baryogenesis through the CP violation of the CKM matrix, our scenario does not require any time-variation of model parameters.

Bigaran, Innes [Northwestern U.; Fermilab; Virgini↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimization of the Reax force field for the lithium–oxygen system using a high fidelity charge model

Studies using molecular dynamics (MD) have long struggled to simulate the failure modes of materials, predicting unrealistically high ductility and failing to capture brittle fracture. The primary cause of this shortcoming is an inadequate description of bond breaking. While reactive force fields such as ReaxFF show improvements compared to traditional force fields, the charge models used yield unphysical partial charges, especially during dissociation of ionic bonds. This flaw may be remedied by using the atom-condensed Kohn–Sham density functional theory (DFT) approximated to a second order (ACKS2) charge model for determining partial charges. In this work, we present a new ACKS2-enabled Reax force field for fracture simulations of lithium oxide systems, which was obtained by training against an extensive set of DFT, multireference configuration interaction (MRCI), and MRCI+Q reference data using genetic optimization techniques. This new force field significantly improves the bond breaking behavior, but still cannot fully capture the brittle fracture in MD simulations, suggesting more research is needed to improve simulation of brittle fracture.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating Basin-Scale Forest Adaptation Scenarios: Wildfire, Streamflow, Biomass, and Economic Recovery Synergies and Trade-Offs

Active forest management is applied in many parts of the western United States to reduce wildfire severity, mitigate vulnerability to drought and bark beetle mortality, and more recently, to increase snow retention and late-season streamflow. A rapidly warming climate accelerates the need for these restorative treatments, but the treatment priority among forest patches varies considerably. We simulated four treatment scenarios across the 3,450 km 2 Wenatchee River basin in eastern Washington, United States. We used a decision support tool (DST) to assess trade-offs and synergies within and among treatments on wildfire risk and smoke emissions, water yield and snow retention, biomass production, and economic return. Treatment scenarios emphasized prescribed burning ( BurnOnly ), biomass production ( MaxBiomass ), gap-based thinning to optimize water yield ( IdealWater ), and a principle-based restoration scenario ( RA1 ). Fire hazard, smoke emissions, and biomass production metrics were evaluated across scenarios using the Forest Vegetation Simulator, and water yields were modeled using the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model. Simulations were summarized to both patch- (10 1 –10 2 ha) and subwatershed- (10 3 –10 4 ha) scales, and treatment effects were evaluated against an untreated baseline landscape. We used logic models to rank effect sizes by scenario across metrics along a continuum between −1 (no or weak effect) to +1 (large effect). All treatments produced benefits across one or more ecosystem services and led to synergistic benefits to water yield and wildfire hazard reduction. Tradeoffs among resource benefits were clear in wilderness where reliance on prescribed burning without mechanical treatment increased costs and eliminated the potential for biomass recovery. The BurnOnly scenario improved fire risk metrics and streamflow, but effect sizes were lower compared to other treatments. IdealWater showed the strongest benefits overall, demonstrating the ability to capture multiple resource benefits through spatially explicit thinning. Our study provides a framework for integrating strategic and tactical models that evaluate tradeoffs and synergies gained through varied management approaches. We demonstrate the utility of decision support modeling to enhance management synergies across large landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep Learning of Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Mock Spectra to Find Damped Lyα Systems

We have updated and applied a convolutional neural network (CNN) machine-learning model to discover and characterize damped Ly α systems (DLAs) based on Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) mock spectra. We have optimized the training process and constructed a CNN model that yields a DLA classification accuracy above 99% for spectra that have signal-to-noise ratios (S/N) above 5 per pixel. The classification accuracy is the rate of correct classifications. This accuracy remains above 97% for lower S/N ≈1 spectra. This CNN model provides estimations for redshift and H i column density with standard deviations of 0.002 and 0.17 dex for spectra with S/N above 3 pixel -1 . Also, this DLA finder is able to identify overlapping DLAs and sub-DLAs. Further, the impact of different DLA catalogs on the measurement of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) is investigated. The cosmological fitting parameter result for BAO has less than 0.61% difference compared to analysis of the mock results with perfect knowledge of DLAs. This difference is lower than the statistical error for the first year estimated from the mock spectra: above 1.7%. We also compared the performances of the CNN and Gaussian Process (GP) models. Our improved CNN model has moderately 14% higher purity and 7% higher completeness than an older version of the GP code, for S/N > 3. Both codes provide good DLA redshift estimates, but the GP produces a better column density estimate by 24% less standard deviation. A credible DLA catalog for the DESI main survey can be provided by combining these two algorithms.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Polariton relaxation under vibrational strong coupling: Comparing cavity molecular dynamics simulations against Fermi’s golden rule rate

Under vibrational strong coupling (VSC), the formation of molecular polaritons may significantly modify the photo-induced or thermal properties of molecules. In an effort to understand these intriguing modifications, both experimental and theoretical studies have focused on the ultrafast dynamics of vibrational polaritons. Here, following our recent work [Li et al., J. Chem. Phys. 154, 094124 (2021)], we systematically study the mechanism of polariton relaxation for liquid CO 2 under a weak external pumping. Classical cavity molecular dynamics (CavMD) simulations confirm that polariton relaxation results from the combined effects of (i) cavity loss through the photonic component and (ii) dephasing of the bright-mode component to vibrational dark modes as mediated by intermolecular interactions. The latter polaritonic dephasing rate is proportional to the product of the weight of the bright mode in the polariton wave function and the spectral overlap between the polariton and dark modes. Both these factors are sensitive to parameters such as the Rabi splitting and cavity mode detuning. Compared to a Fermi’s golden rule calculation based on a tight-binding harmonic model, CavMD yields a similar parameter dependence for the upper polariton relaxation lifetime but sometimes a modest disagreement for the lower polariton. We suggest that this disagreement results from polariton-enhanced molecular nonlinear absorption due to molecular anharmonicity, which is not included in our analytical model. Finally, we also summarize recent progress on probing nonreactive VSC dynamics with CavMD.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transportable absolute yields of underground nuclear explosions. Application to the North Korean nuclear tests

The method developed and presented here improves our nuclear explosion monitoring capability by providing a new independent and transportable method to determine the explosive yields of seismically recorded events associated with foreign weapons development. Here we report new independent absolute yield and depth of burial estimates of the North Korean nuclear tests which are commensurate with previously determined source parameters. The key advantage of this method over other methods which estimate absolute explosive yields is that this method does not require any a priori calibration, and can be immediately applied to any region of interest. This method uses the source information obtained from the spectral ratios of envelopes of measured seismic coda waves to invert for model-derived yield and depth of burial. The only requirements of this method are that the region of interest must contain several (> 3) seismic sources which have been well recorded (SNR > 2) by a set of shared stations. For regions with only a few events (~ 3) and/or extremely band-limited observations for which the depth of burial is unknown, an earthquake with a known magnitude may be required to obtain an accurate and robust yield estimate.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗