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NASA NTRS2012

Evaluating Three Active Thermal Architectures for Exploration Missions

Mass and cost are typically the two biggest challenges facing space craft designers. Active thermal control systems for crewed space-craft are typically among the more massive and costly systems on the vehicle. A study was completed evaluating three different thermal control system architectures to evaluate overall performance, mass and cost for a typical exploration mission profile. The architectures that were evaluated were 1 - a two-loop system using an internal liquid loop interfacing with an external liquid loop and flow loop with flow through radiators; 2 - a-single loop architecture with flow through radiators utilizing a regenerative heat exchanger and heater; and 3 - a single-loop architecture with heat pipe radiators. Environmental conditions, calculated for a given lunar exploration mission, and mission heat load profiles, generated based on previous Orion time lines, were evalauated through the phases of the on orbit mission. Performance for each of the architectures was evaluated along with the resultant mass of each system. Recommendations include adding a thermal topping system to lunar missions due to the extreme hot environments encountered in near-lunar approaches.

Cross, Cynthia D.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Space Telecommunications Radio System (STRS) Architecture: Tutorial - Overview - Part 1

Space Telecommunications Radio System (STRS) Architecture Standard provides a NASA standard for software-defined radio. STRS is being demonstrated in the Space Communications and Navigation (SCaN) Testbed formerly known as Communications, Navigation and Networking Configurable Testbed (CoNNeCT). Ground station radios communicating the SCaN testbed are also being written to comply with the STRS architecture. The STRS Architecture Tutorial Overview presents a general introduction to the STRS architecture standard developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC), addresses frequently asked questions, and clarifies methods of implementing the standard. The STRS architecture should be used as a base for many of NASA s future telecommunications technologies. The presentation will provide a basic understanding of STRS.

Handler, Louis M.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Exploration Space Suit Architecture and Destination Environmental-Based Technology Development

This paper continues forward where EVA Space Suit Architecture: Low Earth Orbit Vs. Moon Vs. Mars1 left off in the development of a space suit architecture that is modular in design and could be reconfigured prior to launch or during any given mission depending on the tasks or destination. This paper addresses the space suit system architecture and technologies required based on human exploration (EVA) destinations, and describes how these systems should evolve to meet the future exploration EVA needs of the US human space flight program. A series of exercises and analyses provided a strong indication that the Constellation Program space suit architecture, with its maximum reuse of technology and functionality across a range of mission profiles and destinations, is postured to provide a viable solution for future space exploration missions. The destination environmental analysis demonstrates that the modular architecture approach could provide the lowest mass and mission cost for the protection of the crew, given any human mission outside of low-Earth orbit. Additionally, some of the high-level trades presented here provide a review of the environmental and non-environmental design drivers that will become increasingly important as humans venture farther from Earth. This paper demonstrates a logical clustering of destination design environments that allows a focused approach to technology prioritization, development, and design that will maximize the return on investment, largely independent of any particular design reference mission.

Hill, Terry R.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Trade Space Specification Tool (TSST) for Rapid Mission Architecture (Version 1.2)

Trade Space Specification Tool (TSST) is designed to capture quickly ideas in the early spacecraft and mission architecture design and categorize them into trade space dimensions and options for later analysis. It is implemented as an Eclipse RCP Application, which can be run as a standalone program. Users rapidly create concept items with single clicks on a graphical canvas, and can organize and create linkages between the ideas using drag-and-drop actions within the same graphical view. Various views such as a trade view, rules view, and architecture view are provided to help users to visualize the trade space. This software can identify, explore, and assess aspects of the mission trade space, as well as capture and organize linkages/dependencies between trade space components. The tool supports a user-in-the-loop preliminary logical examination and filtering of trade space options to help identify which paths in the trade space are feasible (and preferred) and what analyses need to be done later with executable models. This tool provides multiple user views of the trade space to guide the analyst/team to facilitate interpretation and communication of the trade space components and linkages, identify gaps in combining and selecting trade space options, and guide user decision-making for which combinations of architectural options should be pursued for further evaluation. This software provides an environment to capture mission trade space elements rapidly and assist users for their architecture analysis. This is primarily focused on mission and spacecraft architecture design, rather than general-purpose design application. In addition, it provides more flexibility to create concepts and organize the ideas. The software is developed as an Eclipse plug-in and potentially can be integrated with other Eclipse-based tools.

Wang, Yeou-Fang↗
NASA NTRS2014

Asteroid Redirect Crewed Mission Space Suit and EVA System Architecture Trade Study

The Asteroid Redirect Crewed Mission (ARCM) requires a Launch/Entry/Abort (LEA) suit capability and short duration Extra Vehicular Activity (EVA) capability for Orion. The EVAs will involve a two-person crew for approximately four hours. Currently, two EVAs are planned with one contingency EVA in reserve. Providing this EVA capability is very challenging due to system level constraints and a new and unknown environment. The goal of the EVA architecture for ARCM is one that builds upon previously developed technologies and lessons learned, and that accomplishes the ARCM mission while providing a stepping stone to future missions and destinations. The primary system level constraints are to 1) minimize system mass and volume and 2) minimize the interfacing impacts to the baseline Orion design. In order to minimize the interfacing impacts and to not perturb the baseline Orion schedule, the concept of adding "kits" to the baseline system is proposed. These kits consist of: an EVA kit (converts LEA suit to EVA suit), EVA Servicing and Recharge Kit (provides suit consumables), the EVA Tools, Translation Aids & Sample Container Kit (the tools and mobility aids to complete the tasks), the EVA Communications Kit (interface between the EVA radio and the MPCV), and the Cabin Repress Kit (represses the MPCV between EVAs). This paper will focus on the trade space, analysis, and testing regarding the space suit (pressure garment and life support system). Historical approaches and lessons learned from all past EVA operations were researched. Previous and current, successfully operated EVA hardware and high technology readiness level (TRL) hardware were evaluated, and a trade study was conducted for all possible pressure garment and life support options. Testing and analysis was conducted and a recommended EVA system architecture was proposed. Pressure garment options that were considered for this mission include the currently in-use ISS EVA Mobility Unit (EMU), all variations of the Advanced Crew Escape Suit (ACES), and the Exploration Z-suit. For this mission, the pressure garment that was selected is the Modified ACES (MACES) with EVA enhancements. Life support options that were considered included short closed-loop umbilicals, long open-loop umbilicals, the currently in-use ISS EMU Portable Life Support System (PLSS), and the currently in development Exploration PLSS. For this mission, the life support option that was selected is the Exploration PLSS. The greatest risk in the proposed architecture is viewed to be the comfort and mobility of the baseline MACES and the delicate balance between adding more mobility features while not compromising landing safety. Feasibility testing was accomplished in low fidelity analogs and in the JSC Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL) to validate the concept before a final recommendation on the architecture was made. The proposed architecture was found to meet the mission constraints, but much more work is required to determine the details of the required suit upgrades, the integration with the PLSS, and the rest of the tools and equipment required to accomplish the mission. This work and further definition of the remaining kits will be conducted in government fiscal year 14.

Blanco, Raul A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Exploration Space Suit Architecture and Destination Environmental-Based Technology Development

This paper continues forward where EVA Space Suit Architecture: Low Earth Orbit Vs. Moon Vs. Mars left off in the development of a space suit architecture that is modular in design and could be reconfigured prior to launch or during any given mission depending on the tasks or destination. This space suit system architecture and technologies required based on human exploration (EVA) destinations will be discussed, and how these systems should evolve to meet the future exploration EVA needs of the US human space flight program. A series of exercises and analyses provided a strong indication that the Constellation Program space suit architecture, with its maximum reuse of technology and functionality across a range of mission profiles and destinations, is postured to provide a viable solution for future space exploration missions. The destination environmental analysis demonstrates that the modular architecture approach could provide the lowest mass and mission cost for the protection of the crew, given any human mission outside of low-Earth orbit. Additionally, some of the high-level trades presented here provide a review of the environmental and nonenvironmental design drivers that will become increasingly important as humans venture farther from Earth. The presentation of destination environmental data demonstrates a logical clustering of destination design environments that allows a focused approach to technology prioritization, development, and design that will maximize the return on investment, largely independent of any particular design reference mission.

Hill, Terry R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

An Update on Design Tools for Optimization of CMC 3D Fiber Architectures

Objective: Describe and up-date progress for NASA's efforts to develop 3D architectural design tools for CMC in general and for SIC/SiC composites in particular. Describe past and current sequential work efforts aimed at: Understanding key fiber and tow physical characteristics in conventional 2D and 3D woven architectures as revealed by microstructures in the literature. Developing an Excel program for down-selecting and predicting key geometric properties and resulting key fiber-controlled properties for various conventional 3D architectures. Developing a software tool for accurately visualizing all the key geometric details of conventional 3D architectures. Validating tools by visualizing and predicting the Internal geometry and key mechanical properties of a NASA SIC/SIC panel with a 3D orthogonal architecture. Applying the predictive and visualization tools toward advanced 3D orthogonal SiC/SIC composites, and combining them into a user-friendly software program.

Lang, J.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Operational Concepts for a Generic Space Exploration Communication Network Architecture

This document is one of three. It describes the Operational Concept (OpsCon) for a generic space exploration communication architecture. The purpose of this particular document is to identify communication flows and data types. Two other documents accompany this document, a security policy profile and a communication architecture document. The operational concepts should be read first followed by the security policy profile and then the architecture document. The overall goal is to design a generic space exploration communication network architecture that is affordable, deployable, maintainable, securable, evolvable, reliable, and adaptable. The architecture should also require limited reconfiguration throughout system development and deployment. System deployment includes: subsystem development in a factory setting, system integration in a laboratory setting, launch preparation, launch, and deployment and operation in space.

networking↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Rapid Response Radiation Survey (R3S) Mission Using the HiSat Conformal Satellite Architecture

The Rapid Response Radiation Survey (R3S) experiment, designed as a quick turnaround mission to make radiation measurements in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), will fly as a hosted payload in partnership with NovaWurks using their Hyper-integrated Satlet (HISat) architecture. The need for the mission arises as the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionization Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) model moves from a research effort into an operational radiation assessment tool. Currently, airline professionals are the second largest demographic of radiation workers and to date their radiation exposure is undocumented in the USA. The NAIRAS model seeks to fill this information gap. The data collected by R3S, in addition to the complementary data from a NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) atmospheric balloon mission entitled Radiation Dosimetry Experiment (RaD-X), will validate exposure prediction capabilities of NAIRAS. The R3S mission collects total dose and radiation spectrum measurements using a Teledyne μDosimeter and a Liulin-6SA2 LED spectrometer. These two radiation sensors provide a cross correlated radiometric measurement in combination with the Honeywell HMR2300 Smart Digital Magnetometer. The magnetometer assesses the Earth's magnetic field in the LEO environment and allows radiation dose to be mapped as a function of the Earth's magnetic shielding. R3S is also unique in that the radiation sensors will be exposed on the outer surface of the spacecraft, possibly making this the first measurements of the LEO radiation environment with bare sensors. Viability of R3S as an extremely fast turnaround mission is due, in part, to the nature of the robust, well-defined interfaces of the conformal satellite HiSat Architecture. The HiSat architecture, which was developed with the support of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's (DARPA's) Phoenix Program, enabled the R3S system to advance from the first concept to delivery of preliminary design review (PDR) level documents in 29 calendar days. The architecture allows for interface complexities between the specific devices and the satellite bus to be resolved in a standardized interface control document (ICD). The ICD provided a readymade framework to interface to the modular satellite bus. This modularity allowed for approximately 90% of the R3S system to be designed and fabricated in two months without constraint of the hosting satellite's development cycle. This paper discusses the development of the R3S experiment as made possible by use of the HiSat architecture. The system design and operational modes of the experiment are described, as well as the experiment interfaces to the HiSat satellite via the user defined adapter (UDA) provided by NovaWurks. This paper outlines the steps taken by the project to execute the R3S mission in the 4 months of design, build, and test. Additionally portrayed is the ground work done at LaRC to posture the organization for a fast response and the process by which the opportunity was identified as aligning with key strategic goals. Finally, a description of the engineering process is provided, including the use of facilitated rapid/concurrent engineering sessions, the associated documentation, and the review process employed.

Miller, Nathanael A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Architecture Study for a Fuel Depot Supplied from Lunar Assets

This architecture study sought to determine the optimum architecture for a fuel depot supplied from lunar assets. Four factors - the location of propellant processing (on the Moon or on the depot), the depot location (on the Moon, L1, GEO, or LEO), the propellant transfer location (L1, GEO, or LEO), and the propellant transfer method (bulk fuel or canister exchange) were combined to identify 18 candidate architectures. Two design reference missions (DRMs) - a commercial satellite servicing mission and a Government cargo mission to Mars - created demand for propellants, while a propellant delivery DRM examined supply issues. The study concluded Earth-Moon L1 is the best location for an orbiting depot. For all architectures, propellant boiloff was less than anticipated, and was far overshadowed by delta-v requirements and resulting fuel consumption. Bulk transfer is the most flexible for both the supplier and customer. However, since canister exchange bypasses the transfer of bulk cryogens and necessary chilldown losses, canister exchange shows promise and merits further investigation. Overall, this work indicates propellant consumption and loss is an essential factor in assessing fuel depot architectures.

Perrin, Thomas M.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Security Policy for a Generic Space Exploration Communication Network Architecture

This document is one of three. It describes various security mechanisms and a security policy profile for a generic space-based communication architecture. Two other documents accompany this document- an Operations Concept (OpsCon) and a communication architecture document. The OpsCon should be read first followed by the security policy profile described by this document and then the architecture document. The overall goal is to design a generic space exploration communication network architecture that is affordable, deployable, maintainable, securable, evolvable, reliable, and adaptable. The architecture should also require limited reconfiguration throughout system development and deployment. System deployment includes subsystem development in a factory setting, system integration in a laboratory setting, launch preparation, launch, and deployment and operation in space.

networking↗
NASA NTRS2019

Impacts of In-Space Assembly as Applied to Human Exploration Architectures

Human missions to Mars present several major challenges that must be overcome, including delivering multiple large mass and volume elements, keeping the crew safe and productive, meeting cost constraints, and ensuring a sustainable campaign. Traditional methods for executing human Mars missions minimize or eliminate in-space assembly (iSA), which provides a narrow range of options for addressing these challenges and limits the types of missions that can be performed. This paper discusses recent work to evaluate how the inclusion of in-space assembly in space mission architectural concepts could provide novel solutions to address these challenges by increasing operational flexibility, robustness, risk reduction, crew health and safety, and sustainability. Several assembly focus areas identified through previous work were developed and evaluated to identify high-potential iSA applications that can have meaningful impacts on the challenges facing Mars missions. Architecture trade options were developed and assessed through sensitivity analyses, resulting in identification of six iSA-based architecture solutions that could be incorporated into Mars mission architectures with moderate levels of assembly. Assembly agent and infrastructure concepts were also developed that would be necessary to enable or facilitate the iSA operations. Several observations developed through the study are presented to inform future human mission architecture and campaign developments.

Jefferies, Sharon A.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Medical Data Architecture Platform and Recommended Requirements for a Medical Data System for Exploration Missions

The Medical Data Architecture (MDA) project supports the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) risk to minimize or reduce the risk of adverse health outcomes and decrements in performance due to in-flight medical capabilities on human exploration missions. To mitigate this risk, the ExMC MDA project addresses the technical limitations identified in ExMC Gap Med 07: We do not have the capability to comprehensively process medically- relevant information to support medical operations during exploration missions. This gap identifies that the current in-flight medical data management includes a combination of data collection and distribution methods that are minimally integrated with on-board medical devices and systems. Furthermore, there are a variety of data sources and methods of data collection. For an exploration mission, the seamless management of such data will enable a more medically autonomous crew than the current paradigm of medical data management on the International Space Station. ExMC has recognized that in order to make informed decisions about a medical data architecture framework, current methods for medical data management must not only be understood, but an architecture must also be identified that provides the crew with actionable insight to medical conditions. This medical data architecture will provide the necessary functionality to address the challenges of executing a self-contained medical system that approaches crew health care delivery without assistance from ground support. Hence, the products derived from the third MDA prototype development will directly inform exploration medical system requirements for Level of Care IV in Gateway missions. In fiscal year 2019, the MDA project developed Test Bed 3, the third iteration in a series of prototypes, that featured integrations with cognition tool data, ultrasound image analytics and core Flight Software (cFS). Maintaining a layered architecture design, the framework implemented a plug-in, modular approach in the integration of these external data sources. An early version of MDA Test Bed 3 software was deployed and operated in a simulated analog environment that was part of the Next Space Technologies for Exploration Partnerships (NextSTEP) Gateway tests of multiple habitat prototypes. In addition, the MDA team participated in the Gateway Test and Verification Demonstration, where the MDA cFS applications was integrated with Gateway-in-a-Box software to send and receive medically relevant data over a simulated vehicle network. This software demonstration was given to ExMC and Gateway Program stakeholders at the NASA Johnson Space Center Integrated Power, Avionics and Software (iPAS) facility. Also, the integrated prototypes served as a vehicle to provide Level 5 requirements for the Crew Health and Performance Habitat Data System for Gateway Missions (Medical Level of Care IV). In the upcoming fiscal year, the MDA project will continue to provide systems engineering and vertical prototypes to refine requirements for medical Level of Care IV and inform requirements for Level of Care V.

Krihak, M.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Risk and Performance Assessment of Generic Mission Architectures: Showcasing the Artemis Mission

A has initiated a strong push to return face. In this work, we astronaut assess performance and risk for proposed mission architectures using a new Mission Architecture Risk Assessment (MARA) tool. The MARA tool can produce statistics about the availability of components and overall performance of the mission considering potential failures of any of its components. In a Monte Carlo approach, the tool repeats the mission simulation multiple times while a random generator lets modules fail according to their failure rates. The results provide statistically meaningful insights into the overall performance of the chosen architecture. A given mission architecture can be freely replicated in the tool, with the mission timeline and basic characteristics of employed mission modules (habitats, rovers, power generation units, etc.) specified in a configuration file. Crucially, failure rates for each module need to be known or estimated. The tool performs an event-driven simulation of the mission and accounts for random failure events. Failed modules can be repaired, which takes crew time but restores operations. In addition to tracking individual modules, MARA can assess the availability of predefined functions throughout the mission. For instance, the function of resource collection would require a rover to collect the resources, a power generation unit to charge the rover, and a resource processing module. Together, the modules that are required for a given function are called a functional group. Similarly, we can assess how much crew time is available to achieve a mission benefit (e.g. research, building a base, etc) as opposed to spending crew time on repairs. Here we employ the method on the proposed NASA Artemis mission. Artemis aims to return United States astronauts to the lunar surface by 2024. Results provide insights into mission failure probabilities, up- and downtime for individual modules and crew-time resources spent on the repair of failed modules. The tool also allows us to tweak the mission architecture in order to find setups that produce more favorable mission performance. As such, the tool can be an aid in improving the mission architect abling cost-benefit analysis for mission improvement.

Rumpf, Clemens M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Novel RF Architecture for Simultaneous Communication, Navigation, and Remote Sensing with Software-Defined Radio

The rapid growth of SmallSat and CubeSat missions at NASA has necessitated a re-evaluation of communication and remote-sensing architectures. Novel designs for CubeSat-sized single-board computers can now include larger Field-Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs) and faster System-on-Chip (SoCs) devices. These components substantially improve onboard processing capabilities so that varying subsystems no longer require an independent processor. By replacing individual Radio Frequency (RF) systems with a single software-defined radio (SDR) and processor, mission designers have greater control over reliability, performance, and efficiency. The presented architecture combines individual processing systems into a single design and establishes a modular SDR architecture capable of both remote-sensing and communication applications. This new approach based on a multi-input multi-output (MIMO) SDR features a scalable architecture optimized for Size, Weight, Power, and Cost (SWaP-C), with sufficient noise performance and phase-coherence to enable both remote-sensing and navigation applications, while providing a communication solution for simultaneous S-band and X-band transmission. This SDR design is developed around the NASA CubeSat Card Standard (CS2) that provides the required modularity through simplified backplane and interchangeable options for multiple radiation-hardened/tolerant processors. This architecture provides missions with a single platform for high-rate communication and a future platform to develop cognitive radio systems.

Advanced Avionics, Hybrid Processing, Data Process↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Open Innovation for a NASA Architecture Library

NASA’s Center of Excellence for Collaborative Innovation (CoECI) uses open innovation, or “crowdsourcing”, to access the global public to find ideas, concepts, designs, or solutions that meet a previously unmet need possibly resulting in significant advances in performance. The Center of Excellence for Collaborative Innovation was launched at the request of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. This is both a non-traditional method of innovation and a non-traditional method of outreach to the public to involve them in space technologies and programs. It has been used often for software development and new hardware technology. In this case we applied it to innovate with systems engineering tools for creating space architectures. The challenge was sponsored by NASA Engineering and Safety Center Systems Engineering Technical Fellow as part of a program for NASA’s adoption of MBSE. It was a trial to see if there would be as much participation or quality submissions with this more specialized topic and skill. The challenge sought space architecture representations and decompositions to create a library of modeled parts in a system modeling language (SysML). Mission architects mostly start from scratch to build model elements representing the functional and physical architecture of a system in SysML. There are a few beginning libraries, but these are also local to a program or group. A common library will save system engineers a large amount of time, will allow project stakeholders to recognize common graphics and quickly understand the architecture options. The challenge was promoted internationally, especially through professional organizations and universities with a systems engineering focus. It was open for 4 months, purposefully over the winter holiday break time to allow participants extra time outside of work or school. The challenge was designed so that expertise in space hardware was not necessary but getting to play with models of space architecture could provide motivation to participate. We did not receive as many entries as other broader outreach challenges, but the ones we received were extremely thorough and high quality. Solutions came from individuals and teams, students and professional consultants from the United States and Europe. We learned a few lessons about how to engage with the public and what characteristics of a problem result in good crowdsourcing results. The outreach challenge produced several useful ideas and modeled space elements, and the group will be engaging the winners to learn more about their new approaches.

innovation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Ray Tracing Techniques for the Characterization of Lunar Communication Architectures

This paper provides an overview of the computational techniques used to characterize the viability of different lunar architectures and their ability to provide communication services to the lunar surface. This analysis was done with modern ray tracing techniques that allow for the computations to be done on Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) clusters for a high level of parallelism and severe reduction in computation time. The ray tracing computations were done with the GPU platform Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA) provided by NVIDIA which utilizes general-purpose computing on graphics processing units (GPGPU). This new method provides the advantage of being able to characterize a much larger portion of the lunar surface due to its computational efficiency as well as providing a more accurate representation of elevation angle limits instead of the typical and often inaccurate elevation angle mask. The Lunar surface can now be characterized with metrics such as contact time, outage time, and received data rate. With these metrics, different proposed Lunar architectures can be rapidly evaluated. This reduction in computation time not only leads to more accurate results but allows these results to be obtained in a time frame that allows for the complete characterization of the trade space. It is expected that these different architecture comparisons will lead to a conclusive determination of the optimal Lunar architecture and will allow for future Lunar missions to operate as close to real time as possible. In addition, this computation method can be used to recreate visibility figures generated by previous methods but with an increased level of accuracy.

Thomas Montano↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Modeling of a Three-Stage Human Landing System Architecture

Unmitigated uncertainties are known to have previously led to failed development programs; in order to combat these uncertainties, risks and their impacts must be understood and handled to ensure program success. In this paper, a probabilistic methodology to handle uncertainties is demonstrated on a three-element Human Landing System (HLS) concept, which allows tracking of current best estimates of the vehicle’s performance and assessment of its robustness against uncertainties. This methodology has two key parts: first, the creation of a dynamic architecture model of a three-element HLS concept; and second, its use with surrogate modeling and range estimating techniques to capture and propagate uncertainties. The DYnamic Rocket EQuation Tool (DYREQT), a space systems synthesis and sizing framework used by NASA, was used as to model the HLS architecture. For the probabilistic analysis, uncertainties of interest within the HLS concept were enumerated and represented as parameters within the DYREQT model as inputs for vehicle stages or mission profile events. Range estimating — a probabilistic method that combines Monte Carlo sampling, focus on critical parameters, and heuristics to assess risk and opportunities — is then adapted with operational parameters as well as vehicle parameters in the DYREQT model to capture mission uncertainty alongside vehicle uncertainty. To perform the range estimation portion of this methodology, the DYREQT model was sampled using a Design of Experiments (DoE) to efficiently explore the architecture design space with respect to the set of uncertainty parameters. Then, the results were used to create surrogate models, multivariate regressions that can visualize hypercube trends in the design space, of the architecture with respect to the uncertainty parameters. Using a correlation matrix constructed for the uncertainty parameters, previously independent samples were transformed to perform a Correlated Monte Carlo on the surrogate models. This probabilistic methodology was proved to provide insight into the underlying uncertainties of the three-element HLS architecture.

Stephanie Y Zhu↗