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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

SPT clusters with DES and HST weak lensing. I. Cluster lensing and Bayesian population modeling of multiwavelength cluster datasets

We present a Bayesian population modeling method to analyze the abundance of galaxy clusters identified by the South Pole Telescope (SPT) with a simultaneous mass calibration using weak gravitational lensing data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). We discuss and validate the modeling choices with a particular focus on a robust, weak-lensing-based mass calibration using DES data. For the DES Year 3 data, we report a systematic uncertainty in weak-lensing mass calibration that increases from 1% at z = 0.25 to 10% at z = 0.95 , to which we add 2% in quadrature to account for uncertainties in the impact of baryonic effects. We implement an analysis pipeline that joins the cluster abundance likelihood with a multiobservable likelihood for the Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect, optical richness, and weak-lensing measurements for each individual cluster. We validate that our analysis pipeline can recover unbiased cosmological constraints by analyzing mocks that closely resemble the cluster sample extracted from the SPT-SZ, SPTpol ECS, and SPTpol 500d surveys and the DES Year 3 and HST-39 weak-lensing datasets. This work represents a crucial prerequisite for the subsequent cosmological analysis of the real dataset.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian inference of fine features of the nuclear equation of state from future neutron star radius measurements to 0.1 km accuracy

To more precisely constrain the equation of state (EOS) of supradense neutron-rich nuclear matter, future high-precision x-ray and gravitational wave observatories are proposed to measure the radii of neutron stars (NSs) with an accuracy better than about 0.1 km. However, it remains unclear what particular aspects (other than the stiffness generally spoken of in the literature) of the EOS and to what precision they will be better constrained. In this work, within a Bayesian framework using a metamodel EOS for NSs, we infer the posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) of incompressibility K 0 and skewness J 0 of symmetric nuclear matter (SNM) as well as the slope L, curvature K sym , and skewness J sym characterizing the density dependence of nuclear symmetry energy E sym ⁡(ρ), respectively, from mean values of NS radii consistent with existing observations and an expected accuracy Δ⁢R ranging from about 1.0 to 0.1 km. Here, we found that (1) the Δ⁢R has little effect on inferring the stiffness of SNM at suprasaturation densities, (2) smaller Δ⁢R reveals more accurately not only the PDFs but also pairwise correlations among parameters characterizing high-density E sym ⁡(ρ), (3) a double-peak feature of the PDF(K sym ) corresponding to the strong K sym – J sym and K sym – L anticorrelations is revealed when Δ⁢R is less than about 0.2 km, and the locations of the two peaks are sensitive to the maximum value of J sym reflecting the stiffness of E sym ⁡(ρ) above about 3 times the saturation density ρ 0 of SNM, and (4) the high-precision radius measurement for canonical NSs is more useful than that for massive ones for constraining the EOS of nucleonic matter around (2–3)⁢ρ 0 .

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automated and highly parallelized Bayesian optimization scheme for direct drive fusion experiments on OMEGA

Finding the optimal implosion design on existing experimental facilities for inertial confinement fusion requires an exhaustive search of the vast design parameter space. This is infeasible both with experiments and with simulations. Consequently, a large fraction of the experimentally realizable design space remains unexplored, and new design schemes are challenging to optimize in a reasonable time frame. On the OMEGA laser facility, predictive machine learning models have been developed to accurately forecast the result of an experiment using only inexpensive simulations and the large dataset of prior experimental data. However, the full design space remains vast enough to be unassailable with simple optimization techniques. Here we develop an automated and optimally parallel Bayesian optimization algorithm that can entirely optimize the target and pulse shape of a direct-drive ICF implosion under a given design paradigm. We use this algorithm to find a markedly improved design for the performance implosions on OMEGA that is predicted to hydroequivalently scale to ignition at 2.15 MJ.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Selecting Critical Scenarios of DER Adoption in Distribution Grids Using Bayesian Optimization

We develop a new methodology to select scenarios of DER adoption most critical for distribution grids. Anticipating risks of future voltage and line flow violations due to additional PV adopters is central for utility investment planning but continues to rely on deterministic or ad hoc scenario selection. We propose a highly efficient search framework based on multi-objective Bayesian Optimization. We treat underlying grid stress metrics as computationally expensive black-box functions, approximated via Gaussian Process surrogates and design an acquisition function based on probability of scenarios being Pareto-critical across a collection of line- and bus-based violation objectives. Our approach provides a statistical guarantee and offers an order of magnitude speed-up relative to a conservative exhaustive search. Case studies on realistic feeders with 200-400 buses demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of our approach.

Mulkin, Olivier↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian calibration of stochastic agent based model via random forest

SAND2024-11403O The Bayesian Calibration of Stochastic Agent-based Model via Random Forest is a code that was developed in concurrence with an article by the same name that was written for a journal. The code reproduces simulation results and plots from the article. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

SciDAC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian And Human Reliability Analysis (hra)-aided Method For The Reliability Analysis Of Software (bahamas)

The purpose of the BAHAMAS code is to provide a simplified process for performing quantitative evaluations of software reliability. The Bayesian and Human Reliability Analysis (HRA)-Aided method for the Reliability Analysis of software (BAHAMAS) was developed specifically to perform quantification under limited data conditions, i.e., when limited testing or operational data are available, such as during early development stages. BAHAMAS essentially examines the quality of a software development life cycle to determine the probability of specific types of software failure. BAHAMAS will have modules to support user input for detailed and simplified analyses. The user interface will also support software common cause failure analysis.

Wang, Congjian (0000000207789927)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hybrid-BPR (Bayesian Personalized Ranking with Feature Embeddings and Explicit Negative Sampling) [SWR-26-039]

Hybrid-BPR is a Python library for Bayesian Personalized Ranking (BPR) with two key capabilities that go beyond standard BPR implementations: 1. User and item feature embeddings - incorporate content-based signals (genres, tags, metadata) alongside collaborative filtering. 2. Implicit negative interactions - use observed non-interactions (e.g. viewed-but-not-clicked) as negative training signal instead of random sampling from the full item space. The software is built for recommender systems research with MLflow experiment tracking, parallel hyperparameter sweeps, and standard ranking metrics.

Sandhu, Rimple [National Laboratory of the Rockies↗
DOE OSTI2026

mmbo (Multi-modal Bayesian Optimization) [SWR-25-119]

This package implements Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) based surrogate models for multi-modal data. These models are fit using a custom Variational Bayes procedure leveraging conjugate posteriors in the last layer of the network, offering more accurate predictions with better-calibrated uncertainty quantification than mean-field Variational Bayes.

Taylor, Ian [National Laboratory of the Rockies (N↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deployed quantum link characterization via Bayesian ancilla-assisted process tomography

The development of large-scale quantum networks requires reliable quantum channels, the quality of which can be quantified by the framework of quantum process tomography. Here, in this work, we leverage ancilla-assisted process tomography (AAPT) and Bayesian inference to probe a 1.6 km deployed fiber-optic link. We send one of the two polarization-entangled photons at Alice in one building to Bob in another, exploiting the local qubit as an ancilla system to characterize the corresponding quantum channel. Monitoring over a 24 h period returns a steady process fidelity of 97.6(1)%, while controllable spectral filtering with passbands from 0.025 to 4.38 THz finds fidelities that first increase, and then level off with bandwidth, suggesting both stable operation with time and minimal polarization mode dispersion. To our knowledge, these results represent the first AAPT of a deployed quantum link, revealing a valuable tool for in situ analysis of entanglement-based quantum networks.

Rahman, Arefur [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (Un↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian inference of structured latent spaces from neural population activity with the orthogonal stochastic linear mixing model

The brain produces diverse functions, from perceiving sounds to producing arm reaches, through the collective activity of populations of many neurons. Determining if and how the features of these exogenous variables (e.g., sound frequency, reach angle) are reflected in population neural activity is important for understanding how the brain operates. Often, high-dimensional neural population activity is confined to low-dimensional latent spaces. However, many current methods fail to extract latent spaces that are clearly structured by exogenous variables. This has contributed to a debate about whether or not brains should be thought of as dynamical systems or representational systems. Here, we developed a new latent process Bayesian regression framework, the orthogonal stochastic linear mixing model (OSLMM) which introduces an orthogonality constraint amongst time-varying mixture coefficients, and provide Markov chain Monte Carlo inference procedures. We demonstrate superior performance of OSLMM on latent trajectory recovery in synthetic experiments and show superior computational efficiency and prediction performance on several real-world benchmark data sets. We primarily focus on demonstrating the utility of OSLMM in two neural data sets: μ ECoG recordings from rat auditory cortex during presentation of pure tones and multi-single unit recordings form monkey motor cortex during complex arm reaching. We show that OSLMM achieves superior or comparable predictive accuracy of neural data and decoding of external variables (e.g., reach velocity). Most importantly, in both experimental contexts, we demonstrate that OSLMM latent trajectories directly reflect features of the sounds and reaches, demonstrating that neural dynamics are structured by neural representations. Together, these results demonstrate that OSLMM will be useful for the analysis of diverse, large-scale biological time-series datasets.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

CALPHAD-based Bayesian optimization to accelerate alloy discovery for high-temperature applications

Two crucial properties influencing the performance of high-temperature alloys are coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) and phase constitution. It is desirable to have alloys with low CTE, which reduces CTE mismatch with the surface oxide and the likelihood of oxide spallation. Reducing the amount of brittle intermetallic phases such as Sigma (σ) enhances alloy ductility and processability. Here, we propose a multi-objective Bayesian Optimization (BO) model to simultaneously minimize CTE (at an operational temperature of 1150 °C) and T σ (temperature when the Sigma phase completely dissolves in the metal matrix), properties which are obtained from high-throughput CALculation of PHAse Diagrams (CALPHAD). The model successfully identifies several alloys with CTE ≤ 2 × 10 –5 /K and T σ ≤ 500 °C by exploring just 7% of the nickel–chromium–cobalt–aluminum–iron (Ni–Cr–Co–Al–Fe) composition space. Such multi-objective alloy design frameworks can be used to inform additive manufacturing experiments and accelerate alloy discovery for high-temperature energy applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Portfolio Approach to Massively Parallel Bayesian Optimization

One way to reduce the time of conducting optimization studies is to evaluate designs in parallel rather than just one-at-a-time. For expensive-to-evaluate black-boxes, batch versions of Bayesian optimization have been proposed. They work by building a surrogate model of the black-box to simultaneously select multiple designs via an infill criterion. Still, despite the increased availability of computing resources that enable large-scale parallelism, the strategies that work for selecting a few tens of parallel designs for evaluations become limiting due to the complexity of selecting more designs. It is even more crucial when the black-box is noisy, necessitating more evaluations as well as repeating experiments. Here we propose a scalable strategy that can keep up with massive batching natively, focused on the exploration/exploitation trade-off and a portfolio allocation. We compare the approach with related methods on noisy functions, for mono and multi-objective optimization tasks. These experiments show orders of magnitude speed improvements over existing methods with similar or better performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Inference for the Seismic Moment Tensor Using Regional Waveforms and Teleseismic- P Polarities with a Data-Derived Distribution of Velocity Models and Source Locations

The largest source of uncertainty in any source inversion is the velocity model used in the transfer function that relates observed ground motion to the seismic moment tensor. However, standard inverse procedure often does not quantify uncertainty in the seismic moment tensor due to error in the Green’s functions from uncertain event location and Earth structure. Here, we incorporate this uncertainty into an estimation of the seismic moment tensor using a data-derived distribution of velocity models based on complementary geophysical data sets, including thickness constraints, velocity profiles, gravity data, surface-wave group velocities, and regional body-wave travel times. The data-derived distribution of velocity models is then used as a prior distribution of Green’s functions for use in Bayesian inference of an unknown seismic moment tensor using regional and teleseismic-P waveforms. The use of multiple data sets is important for gaining resolution to different components of the moment tensor. The combined likelihood is estimated using data-specific error models and the posterior of the seismic moment tensor is estimated and interpreted in terms of the most probable source type.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applying Machine Learning and Bayesian Inference to Identify and Locate Moving Anthropogenic Sources Using Distributed Acoustic Sensing Data

Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) systems, which use existing telecommunication fibers, offer high‐resolution capabilities ideal for recording anthropogenic sources. However, the complexity of urban environments and the large amount of data recorded by DAS require automated methods to efficiently detect and categorize anthropogenic sources. Here, we evaluate how well three machine learning models (k‐nearest neighbor [k‐NN], convolutional neural networks, and recurrent‐convolutional neural networks) can identify various anthropogenic sources recorded by DAS. Our findings reveal that both k‐NN and neural network methods perform well in high signal‐to‐noise ratio (SNR) settings. However, their accuracy decreases at SNRs <4. We also use Kalman filtering, a form of Bayesian inference, on backprojected locations of these sources to recover locations that generally fall within standard smartphone Global Positioning System errors. By combining machine learning and Kalman filter results, we calculate a multidimensional model of moving anthropogenic sources. These results demonstrate the potential of DAS data in urban seismology for accurately identifying and locating such sources. Depending on the research objectives, these sources can be further studied or filtered out to improve the quality of seismic data for earthquake studies. Such methods provide a valuable tool for urban seismology and seismic hazard analysis.

Luckie, Thomas William [Sandia National Laboratori↗
DOE OSTI2024

Resonance compensation at the CERN PS booster aided by Bayesian optimization and BOBYQA

The CERN Proton Synchrotron Booster (PSB) operation involves the crossing of multiple resonance lines in the tune diagram. Loss maps from dynamic tune scans are a helpful way to visualize and quantify the strength of such resonances. Sextupole and octupole correctors can be used in order to partially or fully compensate multiple resonance lines, i.e., third and fourth order lines. The following work explores the application of advanced optimization algorithms such as Bayesian Optimization and Bound Optimization By Quadratic Approximation (BOBYQA) in order to compensate these resonance lines with available correctors.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian optimization scheme for the design of a nanofibrous high power target

High Power Targetry (HPT) R&D is critical in the context of increasing beam intensity and energy for next generation accelerators. Many target concepts and novel materials are being developed and tested for their ability to withstand extreme beam environments; the HPT R&D Group at Fermilab is developing an electrospun nanofiber material for this purpose. The performance of these nanofiber targets is sensitive to their construction parameters, such as the packing density of the fibers. Lowering the density improves the survival of the target, but reduces the secondary particle yield. Optimizing the lifetime and production efficiency of the target poses an interesting design problem, and in this paper we study the applicability of Bayesian optimization to its solution. We first describe how to encode the nanofiber target design problem as the optimization of an objective function, and how to evaluate that function with computer simulations. We then explain the optimization loop setup. Thereafter, we present the optimal design parameters suggested by the algorithm, and close with discussions of limitations and future refinements.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing collimator positions using bayesian optimization in the Fermilab MI-8 transfer line

Collimators are used to minimize losses and to remove particles that would otherwise get lost downstream and irradiate the machine. Finding the optimal jaw positions is time consuming and with the upstream beam properties changing, the collimation settings would need to be readjusted each time. Therefore, a method to optimize collimator positions and to operate them at full capacity in a short time is required for loss control downstream. A study of collimator positions was conducted and a machine learning (ML) model was developed to predict optimal collimator positions. Bayesian Optimization (BO) was used to calculate new jaw positions from the ML model. The results of BO and usage of ML for better performance of the collimation system are presented in this paper.

Babacan, Betiay [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Fermilab Booster loss modelling and rebalancing using Bayesian methods

To meet PIP-II upgrade requirements, Fermilab Booster losses need to be reduced by 50% compared to present levels. So far, simulations are not good enough to predict loss patterns. Thus, an extensive Booster tune up will be necessary to achieve required performance. In this paper we present an effort to build a data-driven loss model using Bayesian techniques, and subsequently to rebalance losses for higher trip margins. We first created several sets of spatially and temporally isolated orbit and optics knobs, and trained Gaussian process models for each beam loss monitor as well as beam current. Novel techniques of uncertainty constraints and approximate GP fitting were introduced to handle safety and timing requirements. We then performed single and multi-objective tuning using scalarized objectives comprised of critical beam loss locations. We achieved significant rebalancing of losses, increasing margins by 25%, as well as an overall improvement in transmission efficiency of 0.4%. Automated data collection is being developed so that more accurate surrogate models can be trained over time.

Kuklev, N. [Fermilab]↗