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NASA NTRS2015

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

As temperatures increase, the onset and severity of droughts is likely to become more intense. Improved tools for understanding, monitoring and predicting droughts will be a key component of 21st century climate adaption. The best drought monitoring systems will bring together accurate precipitation estimates with skillful climate and weather forecasts. Such systems combine the predictive power inherent in the current land surface state with the predictive power inherent in low frequency ocean-atmosphere dynamics. To this end, researchers at the Climate Hazards Group (CHG), in collaboration with partners at the USGS and NASA, have developed i) a long (1981-present) quasi-global (50degS-50degN, 180degW-180degE) high resolution (0.05deg) homogenous precipitation data set designed specifically for drought monitoring, ii) tools for understanding and predicting East African boreal spring droughts, and iii) an integrated land surface modeling (LSM) system that combines rainfall observations and predictions to provide effective drought early warning. This talk briefly describes these three components. Component 1: CHIRPS The Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), blends station data with geostationary satellite observations to provide global near real time daily, pentadal and monthly precipitation estimates. We describe the CHIRPS algorithm and compare CHIRPS and other estimates to validation data. The CHIRPS is shown to have high correlation, low systematic errors (bias) and low mean absolute errors. Component 2: Hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies East African droughts have increased in frequency, but become more predictable as Indo- Pacific SST gradients and Walker circulation disruptions intensify. We describe hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies that are far superior to the raw output of coupled forecast models. These forecasts can be translated into probabilities that can be used to generate bootstrapped ensembles describing future climate conditions. Component 3: Assimilation using LSMs CHIRPS rainfall observations (component 1) and bootstrapped forecast ensembles (component 2) can be combined using LSMs to predict soil moisture deficits. We evaluate the skill such a system in East Africa, and demonstrate results for 2013.

Funk, Chris↗

NASA NTRS2015

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

Funk, Chris↗

NASA NTRS2016

Uncertainty Estimates of Psychoacoustic Thresholds Obtained from Group Tests

Adaptive psychoacoustic test methods, in which the next signal level depends on the response to the previous signal, are the most efficient for determining psychoacoustic thresholds of individual subjects. In many tests conducted in the NASA psychoacoustic labs, the goal is to determine thresholds representative of the general population. To do this economically, non-adaptive testing methods are used in which three or four subjects are tested at the same time with predetermined signal levels. This approach requires us to identify techniques for assessing the uncertainty in resulting group-average psychoacoustic thresholds. In this presentation we examine the Delta Method of frequentist statistics, the Generalized Linear Model (GLM), the Nonparametric Bootstrap, a frequentist method, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Posterior Estimation and a Bayesian approach. Each technique is exercised on a manufactured, theoretical dataset and then on datasets from two psychoacoustics facilities at NASA. The Delta Method is the simplest to implement and accurate for the cases studied. The GLM is found to be the least robust, and the Bootstrap takes the longest to calculate. The Bayesian Posterior Estimate is the most versatile technique examined because it allows the inclusion of prior information.

Rathsam, Jonathan↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Establishing the Framework for e-VTOL Flight Mission Scenario Development for Urban Air Mobility Research using Cognitive Task Analysis

This paper focuses on applying specific protocol aspects of Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) methods to formulate non-routine flight mission use-case scenarios in support of a potential research study at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center under the Air Traffic Management – eXploration (ATM-X) Urban Air Mobility (UAM) sub-project. The objective of use-case scenarios is to provide a hypothetical situation to elicit expert knowledge and feedback in a specific subject matter area. Use-case scenarios in the field of aviation, including UAM, can help to support the safe integration of these vehicles into the National Airspace System (NAS) through the examination of airspace procedures during non-routine events. Inherent in this type of research is the need to study in-flight non-routine scenarios that the UAM vehicle could encounter. Situations categorized as non-routine events are any events that occur outside of the original flight plan such as a mechanical malfunction or other in-flight emergency requiring special procedures, which can include diversions to a specified, or non-specified, emergency landing area. In specific instances, some non-routine events could be considered as “routine” during in-flight operations, such as the need to perform a go-around due to a balked landing. As the rate of technological expansion surrounding UAM grows rapidly in modern aviation, so does the need for research that focuses on the safe integration of these vehicles including research with a focus on the methods and development of airspace operational procedures. Research rooted in CTA methods provides a framework for developing use-case scenarios appropriate for environments where mental demands are substantial. Substantial mental demands exist while operating in the NAS for pilots, airline dispatchers, and air traffic controllers among many others. With the focus on UAM in mind, it is critical to frame a baseline use-case scenario using information as it pertains to current-day airspace operations. According to Dr. Robert R. Hoffman’s “Protocols for Cognitive Task Analysis,” one of the first steps to applying CTA methods to research is the concept of “bootstrapping” in which the researcher(s) familiarize themselves with the domain that is being studied. To formulate the non-routine flight mission use-case scenarios for the purpose of this potential NASA ATM-X UAM research study, and to inform the baseline use-case scenario, the practice of bootstrapping was utilized to acquire knowledge of current-day airspace procedures.

Heidi S Glaudel↗

NASA NTRS2022

Historically inconsistent productivity and respiration fluxes in the global terrestrial carbon cycle

The terrestrial carbon cycle is a major source of uncertainty in climate projections. Its dominant fluxes, gross primary productivity (GPP), and respiration (in particular soil respiration, RS), are typically estimated from independent satellite-driven models and upscaled in situ measurements, respectively. We combine carbon-cycle flux estimates and partitioning coefficients to show that historical estimates of global GPP and RS are irreconcilable. When we estimate GPP based on RS measurements and some assumptions about RS:GPP ratios, we found the resulted global GPP values (bootstrap mean 149^(+29)_(−23) Pg C/yr) are significantly higher than most GPP estimates reported in the literature (113^(+18)_(−18) Pg C/yr). Similarly, historical GPP estimates imply a soil respiration flux (Rs(_GPP), bootstrap mean of 68^(+10)_(−8) Pg C/yr) statistically inconsistent with most published RS values (87^(+9)_(−8) Pg C/yr), although recent, higher, GPP estimates are narrowing this gap. Furthermore, global R_(S):GPP ratios are inconsistent with spatial averages of this ratio calculated from individual sites as well as CMIP6 model results. This discrepancy has implications for our understanding of carbon turnover times and the terrestrial sensitivity to climate change. Future efforts should reconcile the discrepancies associated with calculations for GPP and Rs to improve estimates of the global carbon budget.

Jinshi Jian↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Global Variability in Sonic Boom Exposure due to Macroscopic Effects

Supersonic flight over land has been prohibited since 1973 due to the loudness of sonic booms. NASA is building the X-59 aircraft as part of its Quesst mission to demonstrate low-loudness shaped sonic booms, or “sonic thumps.” The Quesst mission will gather human perception data via a series of community noise surveys across the USA. The noise dose and perceptual response data will be provided to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the Federal Aviation Administration for use in determining potential future supersonic aircraft noise certification standards, effectively changing the prohibition from a speed limit to a noise limit. These noise regulations must be globally effective, as long travel distances see the largest benefit to supersonic flight. The state of the atmosphere through which a sonic boom travels affects the size of the region exposed to sound, the “carpet width” (CW), as well as the loudness. The focus of this dissertation is to understand and quantify the expected loudness and CW of sonic booms due to the macroscopic atmospheric effects around the world. A pair of large-scale propagation simulation studies were conducted using the NASA PCBoom code to compare predicted sonic boom loudness and CW statistics first across the USA and then across the world. For the USA study, near-field data of the X-59 in steady cruise was propagated at 4 cardinal headings at 138 locations through 5 years of Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) atmospheric profiles. Results of a bootstrap forest predictor screening model indicated the importance of climate zone, latitude, ground elevation, season, and heading. It also noted the unimportance of time of day for predicting loudness and CW. The data is visualized in aggregate, and then broken out geographically, by season and heading, and by climate zone. Multiple linear regression models were fit to the data from the 138 locations so that estimates of the loudness and CW can be produced anywhere in the US. The results can aid in planning when and where to fly the X-59. For the global study, near-field data from three aircraft, the X-59 in a quiet and loud configuration, B-58, and Concorde, were propagated at four cardinal headings through data from three atmospheric models, the CFSv2, the Global Forecast System (GFS), and the ECMWF Reanalysis Version 5 (ERA5), at 100 global locations over 1 year. Results of a bootstrap forest predictor screening model indicated the importance of climate zone, ground elevation, season, and heading. Similar to the US study, the model indicated time of day was not an important predictor. The model also indicated that choice of weather model was not important, so the atmospheric model data are effectively interchangeable. The ERA5 model was chosen for use in an extension of the study to include 18 additional locations to ensure sampling of every climate zone. Loudness and CW results are shown in aggregate, and split geographically and by heading, season, and climate. Multiple linear regression models were fit to the data from the 118 locations so that estimates of loudness and CW can be produced around the world. N-waves and shaped booms did not have the same global variability. Koppen-Geiger climate zones were used as the climate zone definition for the global study. These are available as present-day and future climate projections. Making use of the multiple linear regression models, the future climate zones were input to estimate the effect of the changing climate on sonic boom loudness and CW. Results indicate that a changing climate would have little impact on the effectiveness of noise regulations.

X-59↗

DOE OSTI2020

Incorporating uncertainty for enhanced leaderboard scoring and ranking in data competitions

Data competitions have become a popular and cost-effective approach for crowdsourcing versatile solutions from diverse expertise. Current practice relies on the simple leaderboard scoring based on a given set of competition data for ranking competitors and distributing the prize. However, a disadvantage of this practice in many competitions is that a slight difference in the scores due to the natural variability of the observed data could result in a much larger difference in the prize amounts. In this article, we propose a new strategy to quantify the uncertainty in the rankings and scores from using different data sets that share common characteristics with the provided competition data. By using a bootstrap approach to generate many comparable data sets, the new method has four advantages over current practice. Furthermore, during the competition, it provides a mechanism for competitors to get feedback about the uncertainty in their relative ranking. After the competition, it allows the host to gain a deeper understanding of the algorithm performance and their robustness across representative data sets. It also offers a transparent mechanism for prize distribution to reward the competitors more fairly with superior and robust performance. Finally, it has the additional advantage of being able to explore what results might have looked like if competition goals evolved from their original choices. The implementation of the strategy is illustrated with a real data competition hosted by Topcoder on urban radiation search.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Accurate numerical, integral methods for computing drift-kinetic Trubnikov-Rosenbluth potentials

A novel numerical method is employed to compute the integral form of the axi-symmetric Trubnikov-Rosenbluth potentials. Two methods for quadrature in pitch-angle are described and their convergence properties are studied. Careful attention is given to quadrature over a singular Green's function. Here it is shown that an infinite series representation of the Green's function can be used more efficiently than its closed form involving complete elliptic integrals. Then a collocation method in speed, with its associated quadrature scheme, is laid out and its convergence properties are studied. Using the proposed scheme, accurate low-order moments of the field collision operator are obtained using relatively few velocity space degrees of freedom. The scheme is showcased by solving for the equilibrium, axi-symmetric bootstrap current in tokamaks. A C 0 Gauss-Lobatto-Legendre finite element pitch-angle basis with vertex nodes at the trapped/passing boundary is shown, in the context of the integral methods used, to be much more efficient than the more common Legendre polynomial expansion.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Parsing Weather Variability and Wildfire Effects on the Post-Fire Changes in Daily Stream Flows: A Quantile-Based Statistical Approach and Its Application

Determining wildland fire impacts on streamflow can be problematic as the hydrology in burned watersheds is influenced by post-fire weather conditions. Here, this study presents a quantile-based analytical framework for assessing fire impacts on low and peak daily flow magnitudes, while accounting for post-fire weather influences. This framework entails (a) the bootstrap method to compute the relative change in the post-fire annual flow and weather statistics, (b) double mass analysis to detect if post-fire baseflow and quick-flow yield ratios are significantly altered, and (c) a quantile regression method to parse fire effects on flow at a specific quantile. We illustrate the applicability of this analytical framework using 44 western US streams with at least 5% of their watershed area burned. Results indicate that large, high-severity burns in upland watersheds can raise the streamflow magnitude at the 0. 05 th and 0. 95 th quantiles for at least the five post-fire years. Quantile regression results show that the median fire-related increase in flow for the five post-fire years can be up to 5,000% (Standard Error; S.E. < 2%) at the 0. 05 th E quantile and 161% (S.E. < 10%) at the 0. 95 th quantile. The fire-related increase in flow was often pronounced at the 0. 05 th quantile for streams in the Pacific Northwest and California regions. The difference in fire effects on flow (at both quantiles) across streams was related to post-fire weather, pyrology, physiography, and land cover. The proposed analytical framework can be useful for detecting and quantifying fire effects on the low and peak stream flows in burned watersheds without overlapping disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

MONKES: a fast neoclassical code for the evaluation of monoenergetic transport coefficients in stellarator plasmas

Abstract MONKES is a new neoclassical code for the evaluation of monoenergetic transport coefficients in stellarators. By means of a convergence study and benchmarks with other codes, it is shown that MONKES is accurate and efficient. The combination of spectral discretization in spatial and velocity coordinates with block sparsity allows MONKES to compute monoenergetic coefficients at low collisionality, in a single core, in approximately one minute. MONKES is sufficiently fast to be integrated into stellarator optimization codes for direct optimization of the bootstrap current and to be included in predictive transport suites. The code and data from this paper are available at https://github.com/JavierEscoto/MONKES/ .

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modeling resistive-inductive evolution of currents in Wendelstein 7-X

This research investigates the temporal evolution of the toroidal plasma current in the Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) stellarator under different heating, fueling, and current drive scenarios. The THRIFT code has been modernized and its predictions of the evolution of the toroidal current have been compared against experimentally measured currents in W7-X. Good agreement is found with respect to the characteristic timescale between experimentally measured and simulated toroidal currents. The total bootstrap current is under-predicted owing to the applicability of the BOOTSJ model for the plasma collisionalities in question. Edge plasma resistivity is found to play an important role in the asymptotic behavior of the evolution of the current, indicating a possible limitation of the minimum plasma temperature when applying this model. Simulations of ECCD and heating power steps show THRIFT is capable of capturing the dynamical evolution of the current in response to changes in current sources. Future uses of THRIFT include validating and benchmarking other non-inductive current models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

A New 1-step Arrhenius Decomposition Model for PBX 9501: Calibration with Isochoric-Adiabatic High-Activation-Energy Asymptotics and Uncertainty Quantification

Here we present a new 1-step Arrhenius thermal decomposition model of PBX 9501. As opposed to previous studies, we use high-energy asymptotic theory, and previously published equations of state to parameterize the model to experimental critical-time data. The model parameters were fit to experimental data using a bootstrapping procedure to capture the effects of experimental uncertainty. Subsequent implementation of the model in a chemicalkinetics ODE solver shows good agreement of times to ignition vs initial temperature in isochoric thermal explosion calculations with the results of the high-energy asymptotic theory. We also compare the resultant ZND structures to those of one of our previously calibrated burn models.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

NASA NTRS1965

Remarks on symmetry principles

Application of approximate quasi-static symmetry to large class of subjects and connection of symmetries to bootstraps - high energy interactions

SYMMETRY↗

NASA NTRS1965

Beyond su/3/plus

Symmetry approach to particle physics - review of transformation properties, mixed symmetries and extensions, and bootstrap philosophy in high energy interactions

HIGH ENERGY INTERACTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Nonlinear Logistic Regression Mixture Experiment Modeling for Binary Data Using Dimensionally Reduced Components

This article presents and illustrates an approach using nonlinear logistic regression for modeling binary response data from a mixture experiment when the components can be partitioned into groups used to form dimensionally-reduced pseudocomponents (DRPs). A DRP is a linear combination of the components in a group, where the linear combinations over all groups are normalized so that the DRP proportions sum to unity. Nonlinear logistic regression is required because, after normalization of the linear combinations, the model expressed in terms of the DRPs is nonlinear in the parameters that specify the linear combinations. A method for obtaining nonparametric tolerance limits on the probability of a “success” for the binary response variable using a bootstrap approach is also presented. Having three DRPs enables viewing data and modeling results on a ternary plot even though there may be many more than three mixture components. A real database, involving whether or not nepheline crystals form in simulated nuclear waste glass after cooling, is used to illustrate the nonlinear logistic regression modeling and nonparametric tolerance limit approaches when there are three DRPs.

Waste glass, Nepheline, Mixture experiment, Logist↗

DOE OSTI2022

Conformal conserved currents in embedding space

We study conformal conserved currents in arbitrary irreducible representations of the Lorentz group using the embedding space formalism. With the help of the operator product expansion, we first show that conservation conditions can be fully investigated by considering only two- and three-point correlation functions. We then find an explicitly conformally-covariant differential operator in embedding space that implements conservation based on the standard position space operator product expansion differential operator ∂μ, although the latter does not uplift to embedding space covariantly. The differential operator in embedding space that imposes conservation is the same differential operator $D_{ijA}$ used in the operator product expansion in embedding space. We provide several examples including conserved currents in irreducible representations that are not symmetric and traceless. With an eye on four-point conformal bootstrap equations for four conserved vector currents $\langle JJJJ\rangle$ and four energy-momentum tensors $\langle TTTT\rangle$, we mostly focus on conservation conditions for $\langle JJ\mathcal{O}\rangle$ and $\langle TT\mathcal{O}\rangle$. Finally, we reproduce and extend the consequences of conformal Ward identities at coincident points by determining three-point coefficients in terms of charges.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Self-duality under gauging a non-invertible symmetry

Abstract We discuss two-dimensional conformal field theories (CFTs) which are invariant under gauging a non-invertible global symmetry. At every point on the orbifold branch ofc= 1 CFTs, it is known that the theory is self-dual under gauging a ℤ 2 × ℤ 2 symmetry, and has Rep(H 8 ) and Rep(D 8 ) fusion category symmetries as a result. We find that gauging the entire Rep(H 8 ) fusion category symmetry maps the orbifold theory at radiusRto that at radius 2/R. AtR=$$ \sqrt{2} $$ 2 , which corresponds to two decoupled Ising CFTs (Ising 2 in short), the theory is self-dual under gauging the Rep(H 8 ) symmetry. This implies the existence of a topological defect line in the Ising 2 CFT obtained from half-space gauging of the Rep(H 8 ) symmetry, which commutes with thec= 1 Virasoro algebra but does not preserve the fully extended chiral algebra. We bootstrap its action on thec= 1 Virasoro primary operators, and find that there are no relevant or marginal operators preserving it. Mathematically, the new topological line combines with the Rep(H 8 ) symmetry to form a bigger fusion category which is a ℤ 2 -extension of Rep(H 8 ). We solve the pentagon equations including the additional topological line and find 8 solutions, where two of them are realized in the Ising 2 CFT. Finally, we show that the torus partition functions of the Monster 2 CFT and Ising×Monster CFT are also invariant under gauging the Rep(H 8 ) symmetry.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2023

Double-copy towards supergravity inflation with α-attractor models

A bstract Key to the simplicity of supergravity α -attractor models of inflation are Volkov-Akulov fermions, often in the form of nilpotent superfields. Here we explore the possibility of using the double-copy to construct theories of Dirac-Born-Infeld-Volkov-Akulov (DBIVA) coupled to supergravity. A color-dual bootstrap admits scattering amplitudes involving pions and vectors through five-point tree-level order by order in mass-dimension, but requires the introduction of a Tr( F 3 ) operator. Gauge theories with this operator were recently found to require a tower of higher-derivative operators to be compatible with the duality between color and kinematics. Adjoint-type double-copy construction at its most conservative seems to require the UV completion of DBIVA + pure Poincaré supergravity scattering amplitudes to a family of theories involving DBIVA-like particles coupled to Weyl-Einstein supergravity. We also point out an alternative solution to color-dual gauged pions that allows adjoint double-copy without a tower of higher derivative corrections but at the cost of exchange symmetry between scalars.

Physics↗