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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Building Operation Model (Morpheus) for Dallas Fort Worth Airport (CRADA CRD-19-16301 Final Report)

The primary objective of this project was to leverage digital twin technology to enhance the design and operation of DFW Airport terminals and their associated energy systems. To achieve this, Morpheus, a building digital twin, was developed to guide improvements in airport operations, specifically targeting reductions in peak power demand and overall energy consumption.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Neural-network model for force prediction in multi-principal-element alloys

Atomistic simulations can provide useful insights into the physical properties of multi-principal-element alloys. However, classical potentials mostly fail to capture key quantum (electronic-structure) effects. Here we present a deep 3D convolutional neural network (3D CNN) based framework combined with a voxelization technique to design interatomic potentials for chemically complex alloys. We highlight the performance of the 3D CNN model and its efficacy in computing potentials using the medium-entropy alloy TaNbMo. In order to provide insights into the effect of voxel resolution, we implemented two approaches based on the inner and outer bounding boxes. An efficient 3D CNN model, which is as accurate as the density-functional theory (DFT) approach, for calculating potentials will provide a promising schema for accurate atomistic simulations of structure and dynamics of general multi-principle element alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Black-Box Neural System Identification and Differentiable Programming to Improve Earth System Model Predictions February

Focal Area(s): Focal Area 2: AI for predictive modeling, including AI-derived model components, and AI-enabled applications including parameter optimization, data assimilation, and uncertainty quantification. Focal Area 1: AI-assisted data assimilation using numerical Earth system models. Science Challenge: Earth system models have structural biases that lead to uncertain predictions, and their complexity and expense makes it difficult constraining the models with data or improved physical understanding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrated Optimization and Control of a Hybrid Gas Turbine/sCO 2 Power System

During phase-I, the project team led by Echogen Power Systems (EPS) had two primary objectives based on investigating the application of gas turbines with supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) power cycles. The first objective was to improve the overall efficiency and performance of a hybrid gas turbine/sCO 2 power system through a joint optimization of the two subsystems (gas turbine and sCO 2 power cycle) using non-linear optimization techniques that simultaneously evaluate thermal performance of the combined cycle. The hybrid power system included several points of interaction, including (but not limited to) gas turbine exhaust, fuel heating, inlet chilling and turbine cooling. The second objective was to establish a baseline transient response model of the hybrid power system and a notional microgrid and begin steps to integrate the control systems of the three major elements (gas turbine, sCO 2 cycle and grid controller). The project team established a baseline performance for a combined cycle power plant using a production gas turbine and scaled sCO 2 power cycle only utilizing exhaust heat recovery. Echogen’s non-linear techno-economic optimization code was extended by adding gas turbine component models derived from a in-house developed gas turbine design code. With the two cycles coupled by the gas turbine exhaust, design parameters of both cycles were allowed to vary simultaneously to determine performance opportunity versus isolated designs. Returning to the baseline gas turbine/sCO 2 power cycle transient models: Echogen had in-house developed sCO 2 cycle transient model in GT-Suite system simulation software, and had partnered with Siemens Finspång for gas turbine transient model, and Siemens PTI group to provide micro-grid load profile as well as hybrid power cycle generated load (power and frequency) analysis. The transient model for the SGT-750 Siemens gas turbine was a “black-box” functional mock-up interface (FMI) model developed by Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery in Finspång, Sweden. The SGT-750 is a twin-shaft gas turbine that produces 40 MW electricity with an efficiency of about 40% at ISO conditions. At 100% gas turbine throttle (load), the SGT-750 has average exhaust conditions of 114.6 kg/s and 469.8°C. The transient model for sCO 2 power cycle was developed by Echogen in GT-SUITE 1D system simulation software platform. The basic CO 2 flow circuit has single-shaft turbomachinery with net 11.5 MW electrical power output at design conditions. The power turbine has a double-ended shaft with one end connected to synchronous generator through a fixed-ratio gearbox. The other end of power turbine is connected to the compressor through a continuously variable transmission. The major components of the sCO 2 power cycle modeled include air cooled condenser/cooler, CO 2 compressor, recuperator, two waste heat exchanger coils, power turbine, continuous variable transmission, gearbox and generator. Integration of SGT-750 transient model and sCO 2 power cycle transient model was done in Matlab Simulink. In the integrated model, the gas turbine and sCO 2 power cycle interacted at two points, first one being the gas turbine exhaust gas flow rate and temperature, which were inputs to sCO 2 power cycle model. The second point was the distribution of micro-grid load demand signal between the SGT-750 generator and sCO 2 cycle generator. For a given combined-cycle load demand, the gas turbine load demand was equal to the total demand minus the sCO 2 cycle power generated. In the present study the integrated model was simulated for two cases of grid load demand: (i) for a step change, both positive-step and negative-step, in grid load demand (ii) for a micro-grid load demand curve provided by Siemens PTI group. Finally, the time series plots representing load demand versus integrated system response were presented including the sCO 2 power cycle control system performance plots. The actual generated power and frequency of both the generators, gas turbine and sCO 2 power cycle, was supplied to Siemens PTI group for dynamic grid assessment, results of which are provided in appendices.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Climatology and Extreme Value Analysis of Large Hail in China

In this paper, hail size records are analyzed at 2254 stations in China and a hail size climatology is developed based on gridded hail observations for the period 1960–2015. It is found that the annual percentiles of hail size records changed sharply and national-wide after 1980, therefore two periods, 1960–79 and 1980–2015, are studied. There are some similarities between the two periods in terms of the characteristics of hail size such as the spatial distribution patterns of mean annual maximum hail size and occurrence week of annual maximum hail size. The 1980–2015 period had higher observation density than the 1960–79 period, but showed smaller mean annual maximum hail size, especially in northern China. In the majority of grid boxes, the annual maximum hail size experienced a decreasing trend during the 1980–2015 period. A Gumbel extreme value model is fitted to each grid box to estimate the return periods of maximum hail size. The scale and location parameter of the fitted Gumbel distributions are higher in eastern China than in western China, thereby reflecting a greater likelihood of large hail in eastern China. In southern China, the maximum hail size exceeds 127 mm for a 10-yr return period, whereas in northern China maximum hail size exceeds this threshold for a 50-yr return period. Furthermore, the Gumbel model is found to potentially underestimate the maximum hail size for certain return periods, but provides a more informed picture of the spatial distribution of extreme hail size and the regional differences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sampling Low-Dimensional Markovian Dynamics for Preasymptotically Recovering Reduced Models from Data with Operator Inference

This work introduces a method for learning low-dimensional models from data of high-dimensional black-box dynamical systems. The novelty is that the learned models are exactly the reduced models that are traditionally constructed with classical projection-based model reduction techniques. Thus, the proposed approach learns models that are guaranteed to have the well-studied properties of reduced models known from model reduction, without requiring full knowledge of the governing equations and without requiring the operators of the high-dimensional systems. The key ingredient is a new data sampling scheme to obtain re-projected trajectories of high-dimensional systems that correspond to Markovian dynamics in low-dimensional subspaces. The exact recovery of reduced models from these re-projected trajectories is guaranteed pre-asymptotically under certain conditions for finite amounts of data and for a large class of systems with polynomial nonlinear terms. Numerical results demonstrate that the low-dimensional models learned with the proposed approach match reduced models from traditional model reduction up to numerical errors in practice. In conclusion, the numerical results further indicate that low-dimensional models fitted to re-projected trajectories are predictive even in situations where models fitted to trajectories without re-projection are inaccurate and unstable.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Moving beyond post hoc explainable artificial intelligence: a perspective paper on lessons learned from dynamical climate modeling

AI models are criticized as being black boxes, potentially subjecting climate science to greater uncertainty. Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) has been proposed to probe AI models and increase trust. In this review and perspective paper, we suggest that, in addition to using XAI methods, AI researchers in climate science can learn from past successes in the development of physics-based dynamical climate models. Dynamical models are complex but have gained trust because their successes and failures can sometimes be attributed to specific components or sub-models, such as when model bias is explained by pointing to a particular parameterization. We propose three types of understanding as a basis to evaluate trust in dynamical and AI models alike: (1) instrumental understanding, which is obtained when a model has passed a functional test; (2) statistical understanding, obtained when researchers can make sense of the modeling results using statistical techniques to identify input–output relationships; and (3) component-level understanding, which refers to modelers' ability to point to specific model components or parts in the model architecture as the culprit for erratic model behaviors or as the crucial reason why the model functions well. We demonstrate how component-level understanding has been sought and achieved via climate model intercomparison projects over the past several decades. Such component-level understanding routinely leads to model improvements and may also serve as a template for thinking about AI-driven climate science. Currently, XAI methods can help explain the behaviors of AI models by focusing on the mapping between input and output, thereby increasing the statistical understanding of AI models. Yet, to further increase our understanding of AI models, we will have to build AI models that have interpretable components amenable to component-level understanding. We give recent examples from the AI climate science literature to highlight some recent, albeit limited, successes in achieving component-level understanding and thereby explaining model behavior. The merit of such interpretable AI models is that they serve as a stronger basis for trust in climate modeling and, by extension, downstream uses of climate model data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification of a deep learning fuel property prediction model

Deep learning models are being widely used in the field of combustion. Given the black-box nature of typical neural network based models, uncertainty quantification (UQ) is critical to ensure the reliability of predictions as well as the training datasets, and for a principled quantification of noise and its various sources. Deep learning surrogate models for predicting properties of chemical compounds and mixtures have been recently shown to be promising for enabling data-driven fuel design and optimization, with the ultimate goal of improving efficiency and lowering emissions from combustion engines. In this study, UQ is performed for a multi-task deep learning model that simultaneously predicts the research octane number (RON), Motor Octane Number (MON), and Yield Sooting Index (YSI) of pure components and multicomponent blends. The deep learning model is comprised of three smaller networks: Extractor 1, Extractor 2, and Predictor, and a mixing operator. The molecular fingerprints of individual components are encoded via Extractor 1 and Extractor 2, the mixing operator generates fingerprints for mixtures/blends based on linear mixing operation, and the predictor maps the fingerprint to the target properties. Two different classes of UQ methods, Monte Carlo ensemble methods and Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), are employed for quantifying the epistemic uncertainty. Combinations of Bernoulli and Gaussian distributions with DropConnect and DropOut techniques are explored as ensemble methods. All the DropConnect, DropOut and Bayesian layers are applied to the predictor network. Aleatoric uncertainty is modeled by assuming that each data point has an independent uncertainty associated with it. The results of the UQ study are further analyzed to compare the performance of BNN and ensemble methods. Although this study is confined to UQ of fuel property prediction, the methodologies are applicable to other deep learning frameworks that are being widely used in the combustion community.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Learning effective stochastic differential equations from microscopic simulations: Linking stochastic numerics to deep learning

We identify effective stochastic differential equations (SDEs) for coarse observables of fine-grained particle- or agent-based simulations; these SDEs then provide useful coarse surrogate models of the fine scale dynamics. We approximate the drift and diffusivity functions in these effective SDEs through neural networks, which can be thought of as effective stochastic ResNets. The loss function is inspired by, and embodies, the structure of established stochastic numerical integrators (here, Euler–Maruyama and Milstein); our approximations can thus benefit from backward error analysis of these underlying numerical schemes. They also lend themselves naturally to “physics-informed” gray-box identification when approximate coarse models, such as mean field equations, are available. Existing numerical integration schemes for Langevin-type equations and for stochastic partial differential equations can also be used for training; we demonstrate this on a stochastically forced oscillator and the stochastic wave equation. Our approach does not require long trajectories, works on scattered snapshot data, and is designed to naturally handle different time steps per snapshot. We consider both the case where the coarse collective observables are known in advance, as well as the case where they must be found in a data-driven manner.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimization of lithium vapor box divertor evaporator location on NSTX-U using SOLPS-ITER

Commercial fusion reactors will be faced with extremely high divertor target heat fluxes that will require mitigation. Simulations of detachment in an NSTX-U scenario projected to have 92 MW/m 2 unmitigated peak target heat flux are presented, which reaches sub-10 MW/m 2 target heat flux using a highly dissipating lithium vapor box divertor design. The lithium vapor box is a detached divertor design which employs lithium vapor evaporation and condensation to contain lithium below the X-point. Previous SOLPS modeling has indicated a lithium vapor box can reduce the heat flux down to 10 MW/m 2 via simultaneous evaporation from the Private Flux Region (PFR) and the Common Flux Region (CFR) sides of the vapor box. It is found here that PFR evaporation has improved access to the separatrix leading to significantly more efficient power dissipation than CFR evaporation. Simulations of target evaporation with an evaporation distribution that is self-consistent with the temperature of a Capillary Porous System with Fast flowing liquid lithium (CPSF) could reach n Li / n e ~ 0.025-0.030 at the Last Closed Flux Surface (LCFS) depending on the liquid metal flow speeds and lithium sputtering yield, while PFR-side evaporation can reach acceptable heat fluxes with n Li / n e ~ 0.038 at the LCFS. However, PFR evaporator performance can be improved if the target is allowed to be hot enough such that it reflects lithium, reaching n Li / n e ~ 0.028 and reducing required lithium evaporation. Ultimately PFR evaporation and target evaporation are found to have similar ability to produce acceptable heat flux solutions with minimal upstream concentration.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Crack Identification and Characterization in Deformed Nb3Sn Rutherford Cable Stacks Using Machine Learning

An investigation of instance segmentation of cracks in Nb3Sn 4-stack 40-strand Rutherford cables using machine learning is presented. Three samples were uniaxially and biaxially loaded before metallographic inspections were performed. The Mask R-CNN model was used in the Detectron2 framework with pre-trained weights but fine-tuned to detect and segment cracks. The model detected cracks with bounding box and mask average precisions (AP) of 42.8 and 27.9, respectively, and was used for instance segmentation of all cracks in the three samples. More cracks were found in the sample pre-loaded along the z-axis (i.e., along the cable length). Pre-loading along the x-axis (i.e., on the cables edges) reduced the number of cracks and changed the crack orientation distribution, away from being highly aligned with the y-axis (i.e., normal to the cables broad faces), i.e., the direction with the highest applied load. Fine-tuning of the Segment Anything Model (SAM) was also studied but performed poorly without human-provided prompts. However, the zero-shot capability of SAM showed high promises to accelerate the image annotation process for applications beyond this study.

Croteau, Jean-Francois↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust Power System Stability Assessment Against Adversarial Machine Learning-Based Cyberattacks via Online Purification

The increasing complexity associated with renewable generation brings more challenges to power system stability assessment (SA). Data-driven approaches based on machine learning (ML) techniques for stability assessment have received significant research interest and shown their promising performance. However, ML-based models are recognized to be vulnerable to adversarial disturbances, where a slight perturbation to power system measurements could lead to unacceptable errors. To address this issue, this paper develops a novel lightweight mitigation strategy, i.e., robust online stability assessment (ROSA), to enhance the ML-based assessment model against both white-box and the black-box adversarial disturbances (i.e., purification) in the online implementation. The ROSA involves a supervised learning-based module for the primary stability assessment and a self-supervised learning-based module. Further, the two modules are trained jointly with different objective (loss) functions and implemented in sequence. A suitable purification objective and various time-series data augmentation methods are designed for SA applications to tackle adversarial disturbances adaptively. Case studies are performed, and the comparative results have clearly illustrated the competitive, robust accuracy against various adversarial scenarios and verified the effectiveness of the proposed online purification strategy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

System risk quantification and decision making support using functional modeling and dynamic Bayesian network

Risk-informed decision-making requires a probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of success of control action, given the system status. This paper presents a systematic state transition modeling approach integrating dynamic probabilistic risk assessment with a decision-making process using a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) coupled with functional modeling. A functional model designed with multilevel flow modeling (MFM) technique was used to build a system state structure inferred by energy, mass, and information flow so that one can verify the developed model with respect to system functionality. The MFM model represents the causal relationship among the nodes, which captures the structure of process parameters and control units. Each node may have multiple possible states, and the DBN structured by the MFM model represents the time-domain transitions among the defined states. Furthermore, the MFM-DBN integrated state transition modeling is a white-box approach that allows one to draw the system's risk profile by updating the system states and supports the decisions probabilistically with physical inference. An example of a simple heating system has been used to illustrate this process, including decision-making support based on quantitative risk profile. For demonstrating its applicability to a complex system operational decision making, a case study of station blackout accident scenario leading to the seal loss of coolant accident in a nuclear power plant is presented. The proposed approach effectively provided the risk profile along time for each option so that the operators can make the best decision, which minimizes the plant risk.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying Uncertainty in PV Energy Estimates Final Report

Uncertainty in PV energy estimates is "one of the most critical areas of lack of understanding" according to independent engineers, financiers, PV model developers, and other industry stakeholders. The primary problem is a lack of rigorous, transparent, widely accepted methods for quantifying uncertainty in energy production estimates. Uncertainty in energy production estimates arises from variability of the solar resource, inexact PV performance models and their parameters, and system reliability considerations. Uncertainty in annual energy production is frequently calculated for larger projects in order to quantify financial risk. Key statistics for energy, such as the P-values "P50" and "P90" (the annual energy values that are exceeded in future years with 50\% and 90\% probability, respectively) are used by financing institutions to calculate the repayment risk for the project. The current methods to estimate these statistics are typically proprietary, specialized, and involve significant post-processing of commercial performance model results. This black-box approach leads to inconsistent P-value estimates from different parties, which reduces investors' confidence in the results. Since the financial community bases its risk assessment on these estimates, reduced confidence increases perceived project risk, and consequently financing costs. The goal of this project was to establish a set of best practices for quantifying uncertainty in energy production estimates, including identifying what sources of uncertainty must be considered with clear definitions and metrics, determining which sources are the biggest drivers of uncertainty, and providing a computationally efficient framework for combining different sources of uncertainty that is flexible enough to accommodate substitutions of data or methods when better information is available. We engaged a wide set of stakeholders to ensure industry endorsement and adoption, and leveraged complementary projects investigating individual sources of uncertainty in great detail, as well as others' work that started down this path.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Local spin polarizations in relativistic heavy-ion collisions

Here, based on a generalized side-jump formalism for massless chiral fermions, which naturally takes into account the spin-orbit coupling in the scattering of two chiral fermions and the chiral vortical effect in a rotating chiral fermion matter, we have developed a covariant and total-angular-momentum-conserved chiral transport model to study both the global and local polarizations of this matter. For a system of massless quarks of random spin orientations and finite vorticity in a box, we have demonstrated that the model can exactly conserve the total angular momentum of the system and dynamically generate the quark spin polarization expected from a thermally equilibrated quark matter. Using this model to study the spin polarization in relativistic heavy-ion collision, we have found that the local quark spin polarizations depend strongly on the reference frame where they are evaluated as a result of the nontrivial axial charge distribution caused by the chiral vortical effect. We have further shown that because of the anomalous orbital or side-jump contribution to the quark spin polarization, the local quark polarizations calculated in the medium rest frame are qualitatively consistent with the local polarizations of Lambda hyperons measured in experiments.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Towards Query-Efficient Black-Box Adversary with Zeroth-Order Natural Gradient Descent

Despite the great achievements of the modern deep neural networks (DNNs), the vulnerability/robustness of state-of-the-art DNNs raises security concerns in many application domains requiring high reliability. Various adversarial attacks are proposed to sabotage the learning performance of DNN models. Among those, the black-box adversarial attack methods have received special attentions owing to their practicality and simplicity. Black-box attacks usually prefer less queries in order to maintain stealthy and low costs. However, most of the current black-box attack methods adopt the first-order gradient descent method, which may come with certain deficiencies such as relatively slow convergence and high sensitivity to hyper-parameter settings. In this paper, we propose a zeroth-order natural gradient descent (ZO-NGD) method to design the adversarial attacks, which incorporates the zeroth-order gradient estimation technique catering to the black-box attack scenario and the second-order natural gradient descent to achieve higher query efficiency. The empirical evaluations on image classification datasets demonstrate that ZO-NGD can obtain significantly lower model query complexities compared with state-of-the-art attack methods.

Zhao, Pu↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improvements to CTF for Modeling of Boiling Water Reactor Geometry and Operating Conditions

This report documents work done to improve CTF modeling of boiling water reactor (BWR) designs during FY 2020. Several improvements were made to the geometry modeling capabilities, including adding support for modeling of inlet flow orifices, axially varying large water rods, channel boxes with large corner round radii, and quarter symmetry models. Work was also done to improve on the numerical stability and run-time performance of CTF in Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA) for core-scale BWR problems. An outer iteration loop was implemented that ensures mass and energy are conserved before moving on to the next time step in the solution. The ability to use a direct solver for the pressure matrix was also added, which reduces the matrix solution error and improves code stability and run-time performance. Improvements to the pressure balance iteration loop were needed to allow CTF to be used in a coupled VERA solution of a model of Hatch that was developed. Finally, various improvements have led to a 2×reduction in the total VERA walltime for the Hatch model.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Incorporation of Physics Phenomenology into an Adaptive Algorithm Framework (Final Report)

We attempt to incorporate prior physics knowledge into a machine learning architecture at an applied application level (empirical) as opposed to the level of fundamental physics (first principles). The purpose of this work is to allow for the application of methods of physics-informed machine learning to a broad range of national security problems, while enhancing the trust in machine-learned models by decreasing the “black box” nature of such methods.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗