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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A control-inspired approach for energy transition planning under uncertainty

As the global carbon footprint continues to grow, many countries are implementing carbon emission reduction policies which have incentivized the expansion of low-carbon and renewable technologies. However, the speed and scale of deployment falls short of that needed to meet climate goals. Energy system models serve as key tools for guiding investment decisions and helping policymakers evaluate the effects of various policies on the development of an energy system. This study focuses on the energy system of the United States and builds upon prior work by incorporating more geographic granularity to account for the trade of commodities and addresses transmission congestion through electricity price adjustments. Furthermore, real-world characteristics, such as delays in constructing new liquid fuel production and electricity generation facilities, are integrated using a sequential decision-making approach that better reflects how decisions can be updated as uncertainties unfold. Results demonstrate that stochastic programming combined with sequential decision-making produces energy transition pathways that are robust to multiple uncertain futures. Additionally, considering real-world characteristics significantly impacts the deployment of renewable technologies and the ability to meet carbon emission reduction goals while also reliably meeting demand. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for uncertainty and real-world characteristics to avoid overly optimistic projections in energy system planning.

energy systems↗
DOE OSTI2025

Direct Electrochemical Reduction of CO 2 to C 2+ Chemicals: Catalysts, Microenvironments, and Mechanistic Understanding

The electrochemical reduction reaction of CO 2 (eCO 2 RR) to chemicals presents a viable solution for addressing climate change and sustainable manufacturing. In this Review, we describe the recent advancements in eCO 2 RR for multicarbon (C 2+ ) chemicals production from the aspects of catalyst structure, reaction microenvironments, and mechanistic understanding. Here, we draw experimental and theoretical comparisons between the catalyst systems containing bulk and highly dispersed metals, alloys, and metal compounds and recount new results of microenvironmental impacts as well as the catalytic mechanism. From our own recent studies, we offer some viewpoints on the electrocatalytic mechanism during complex multistep proton-coupled electron transfers and propose several research directions in unlocking the full potential of eCO 2 RR as a scalable industrial solution for CO 2 -to-C 2+ conversion.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

How Can Floor Covering Influence Buildings’ Demand Flexibility?

Although the thermal mass of floors in buildings has been demonstrated to help shift cooling load, there is still a lack of information about how floor covering can influence the floor’s load shifting capability and buildings’ demand flexibility. To fill this gap, we estimated demand flexibility based on the daily peak cooling load reduction for different floor configurations and regions, using EnergyPlus simulations. As a demand response strategy, we used precooling and global temperature adjustment. The result demonstrated an adverse impact of floor covering on the building’s demand flexibility. Specifically, under the same demand response strategy, the daily peak cooling load reductions were up to 20–34% for a concrete floor whereas they were only 17–29% for a carpet-covered concrete floor. This is because floor covering hinders convective coupling between the concrete floor surface and the zone air and reduces radiative heat transfer between the concrete floor surface and the surrounding environment. In hot climates such as Phoenix, floor covering almost negated the concrete floor’s load shifting capability and yielded low demand flexibility as a wood floor, representing low thermal mass. Sensitivity analyses showed that floor covering’s effects can be more profound with a larger carpet-covered area, a greater temperature adjustment depth, or a higher radiant heat gain. With this effect ignored for a given building, its demand flexibility would be overestimated, which could prevent grid operators from obtaining sufficient demand flexibility to maintain a grid. Our findings also imply that for more efficient grid-interactive buildings, a traditional standard for floor design could be modified with increasing renewable penetration.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Greenhouse gas emissions reduction strategies that maximize portfolio-wide life cycle cost reduction, resilience, and environmental justice benefits

While strategies to achieve net-zero emissions at an individual site are well understood, new analysis methods are required for organizations seeking to achieve net-zero across multiple facilities, each with concurrent priority goals. At a portfolio level, distinct locations present varied challenges that cannot be addressed through singular solutions, and competing goals can take precedence with the assumption that net-zero emissions strategies deter from energy resilience and cost savings, therefore negatively impacting nearby communities. This study tests these assumptions by analyzing 16 diverse sites (varying in size, climate, and energy use) to identify strategies that reduce emissions and assess the impact these strategies have on life cycle costs, resilience, and communities with environmental justice concerns. Methods were developed to approximate missing information essential to net-zero evaluation. Established methods were augmented to evaluate life cycle costs, resilience, and environmental justice impacts across a set of strategies and accommodate the multi-criteria analyses. Potential benefits from identified strategies were quantified using site characteristics and a set of corresponding metrics. The net-zero analysis found that 11 sites could use on-site strategies to eliminate all but 2% of emissions generated. The remaining emissions can be offset, for instance through sequestration, executed at the portfolio scale. On-site carbon-free energy was found to reduce 51% of emissions across all sites; efficiency reduced 19% of emissions; sequestration 16%; procured carbon-free energy 15%; fuel switching 1.6%; and fleet electrification 1.3%. Building electrification, however, increased emissions by 4.4%. Different strategies also provide cost, resilience, and/or environmental justice benefits—the degree to which varies with individual site conditions. The findings indicate an advantage to considering the strategies as a comprehensive set, which leads to co-benefits, both in the ability to achieve net-zero goals and in advancing other goals. The results present the case for comprehensive advanced planning at the portfolio level to prioritize investments that will balance the minimization of emissions and life cycle cost with the maximization of resilience and environmental justice benefits. The novel methods for evaluation and integration, valuation of benefits, and consideration at the portfolio scale allow organizations to select investments that simultaneously address multiple key priorities.

Net-Zero Emissions↗
DOE OSTI2024

Baselining the Indirect Effect by Improving Quantification of Sea Spray and Marine Sources at Ascension Island (Final Report)

Oceans cover two-thirds of the Earth and understanding the interactions of aerosols with clouds in these large marine regions requires quantifying the man-made contributions to the budget of cloud-drop forming particles (known as cloud condensation nuclei, or CCN) relative to the non-manmade “baseline” conditions and understanding the meteorology of boundary layer clouds. Modeling studies have shown substantial uncertainties and sensitivities to natural marine CCN sources, meaning that to reduce uncertainties in indirect effects we must be able to better quantify the CCN budget in ocean regions. While models provide important constraints on these uncertainties, actually reducing uncertainties requires substantial observations in open-ocean and coastal regions in order to establish the baseline on which manmade emissions are added. The tropical South Atlantic Ocean is one of the least-sampled regions of the planet, making the comprehensive measurements of the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) campaign provides the longest record of aerosol size distribution measurements from a differential mobility analyzer in a cloud-influenced marine location in the ARM database, with 17 months of ground-based aerosol size distribution measurements. This project addressed the research topic of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions (ACI) by supporting three publications from the LASIC measurements: 1. The ARM measurements were combined with a new value-added technique that was pioneered by the Russell group for quantifying sea salt. This quantification of sea salt uses supermicron scattering measurements for retrieving reasonable sea spray mass concentrations, providing the best-available, observationally-constrained estimate of the sea spray mode properties when supermicron size distribution measurements are not available. 2. The fitted modes of the distribution were used to investigate the signatures of cloud processing for very clean to very smoky aerosol conditions, revealing not only differences in the particles that activate in clouds but also in the mechanisms that control that droplet formation process. In clean air, the size required to form a cloud droplet is influenced by the number of particles, as well as how quickly particles take up water during growth in cloud. 3. Building on this aerosol characterization, cloud and meteorological conditions were used to evaluate aerosol-related changes in cloud albedo and optical depth. We introduced a new method of decomposing the impact of aerosols on clouds known as the Twomey effect by incorporating retrieved supersaturation from two independent sets of observations to constrain the feedback of aerosol particles on cloud properties. The method quantifies the reduction of the Twomey effect at high aerosol concentrations, which has never been explained quantitatively by observations. In addition, the results provide the first direct validation for the conditions observed in the tropical South Atlantic of a parcel-based approach that is embedded in many climate models. Together these findings illustrate how ARM extended field campaigns in stratocumulus-covered regions can be used to constrain ACI processes with direct observations, providing specific radiative effects without models. By making such process-specific constraints available to improve ACI in global climate models, ARM observations play a key role in supporting model development.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Observed Sensitivity of Low-Cloud Radiative Effects to Meteorological Perturbations over the Global Oceans

Understanding how marine low clouds and their radiative effects respond to changing meteorological conditions is crucial to constrain low-cloud feedbacks to greenhouse warming and internal climate variability. In this paper, we use observations to quantify the low-cloud radiative response to meteorological perturbations over the global oceans to shed light on physical processes governing low-cloud and planetary radiation budget variability in different climate regimes. We assess the independent effect of perturbations in sea surface temperature, estimated inversion strength, horizontal surface temperature advection, 700-hPa relative humidity, 700-hPa vertical velocity, and near-surface wind speed. Stronger inversions and stronger cold advection greatly enhance low-level cloudiness and planetary albedo in eastern ocean stratocumulus and midlatitude regimes. Warming of the sea surface drives pronounced reductions of eastern ocean stratocumulus cloud amount and optical depth, and hence reflectivity, but has a weaker and more variable impact on low clouds in the tropics and middle latitudes. By reducing entrainment drying, higher free-tropospheric relative humidity enhances low-level cloudiness. At low latitudes, where cold advection destabilizes the boundary layer, stronger winds enhance low-level cloudiness; by contrast, wind speed variations have weak influence at midlatitudes where warm advection frequently stabilizes the marine boundary layer, thus inhibiting vertical mixing. These observational constraints provide a framework for understanding and evaluating marine low-cloud feedbacks and their simulation by models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Extreme drought impacts have been underestimated in grasslands and shrublands globally

Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of short-term (~1 y) drought events—the most common duration of drought—globally. Yet the impact of this intensification of drought on ecosystem functioning remains poorly resolved. This is due in part to the widely disparate approaches ecologists have employed to study drought, variation in the severity and duration of drought studied, and differences among ecosystems in vegetation, edaphic and climatic attributes that can mediate drought impacts. To overcome these problems and better identify the factors that modulate drought responses, we used a coordinated distributed experiment to quantify the impact of short-term drought on grassland and shrubland ecosystems. With a standardized approach, we imposed ~a single year of drought at 100 sites on six continents. Here we show that loss of a foundational ecosystem function—aboveground net primary production (ANPP)—was 60% greater at sites that experienced statistically extreme drought (1-in-100-y event) vs. those sites where drought was nominal (historically more common) in magnitude (35% vs. 21%, respectively). This reduction in a key carbon cycle process with a single year of extreme drought greatly exceeds previously reported losses for grasslands and shrublands. Our global experiment also revealed high variability in drought response but that relative reductions in ANPP were greater in drier ecosystems and those with fewer plant species. Overall, our results demonstrate with unprecedented rigor that the global impacts of projected increases in drought severity have been significantly underestimated and that drier and less diverse sites are likely to be most vulnerable to extreme drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Breakthrough innovations in carbon dioxide mineralization for a sustainable future

Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change concerns have prompted worldwide initiatives to lower carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) levels and prevent them from rising in the atmosphere, thereby controlling global warming. Effective CO 2 management through carbon capture and storage is essential for safe and permanent storage, as well as synchronically meeting carbon reduction targets. Lowering CO 2 emissions through carbon utilization can develop a wide range of new businesses for energy security, material production, and sustainability. CO 2 mineralization is one of the most promising strategies for producing thermodynamically stable solid calcium or magnesium carbonates for long-term sequestration using simple chemical reactions. Current advancements in CO 2 mineralization technologies, focusing on pathways and mechanisms using different industrial solid wastes, including natural minerals as feedstocks, are briefly discussed. However, the operating costs, energy consumption, reaction rates, and material management are major barriers to the application of these technologies in CO 2 mineralization. Further, the optimization of operating parameters, tailor-made equipment, and smooth supply of waste feedstocks require more attention to make the carbon mineralization process economically and commercially viable. Here, carbonation mechanisms, technological options to expedite mineral carbonation, environmental impacts, and prospects of CO 2 mineralization technologies are critically evaluated to suggest a pathway for mitigating climate change in the future. The integration of industrial wastes and brine with the CO 2 mineralization process can unlock its potential for the development of novel chemical pathways for the synthesis of calcium or magnesium carbonates, valuable metal recovery, and contribution to sustainability goals while reducing the impact of global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Characterizing electrical demand and load diversity of low-power water and space heating appliances in US homes

Home renovation and remodeling projects can involve costly and time consuming electrical infrastructure upgrades at the household level. From the grid perspective they also lead to costly replacement of local infrastructure, such as transformers, and can add stress to the grid at peak times. The emergence of innovative, power-efficient household appliances offers a way to minimize these problems. These appliances are designed for lower power consumption, simplifying installation through standard plug-in connections, reducing the need for new electric circuits/panels/service, and minimizing the peak power demand for the home. Key examples include low-power heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) and cold climate window heat pumps that operate on standard 120V outlets. To assess the real-world impact of these solutions, we compiled and analyzed power metering data from several US field studies. This data provides insights into the effects on peak power demand of selecting lower-power appliances. Our analysis focuses on several key metrics, including the maximum power demand of individual appliances, their operational runtime, continuous operation and load diversity. While individual low-power 120V space and water heating appliances offer significant peak demand reductions compared to 240V heat pump or resistance alternatives, their longer runtimes might increase the likelihood of operation during whole-dwelling peak events, albeit at lower power levels.

Less, Brennan↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Science, Engineering, and Validation of Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal and Storage

Scenarios to stabilize global climate and meet international climate agreements require rapid reductions in human carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, often augmented by substantial carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere. While some ocean-based removal techniques show potential promise as part of a broader CDR and decarbonization portfolio, no marine approach is ready yet for deployment at scale because of gaps in both scientific and engineering knowledge. Marine CDR spans a wide range of biotic and abiotic methods, with both common and technique-specific limitations. Further targeted research is needed on CDR efficacy, permanence, and additionality as well as on robust validation methods—measurement, monitoring, reporting, and verification—that are essential to demonstrate the safe removal and long-term storage of CO 2 . Engineering studies are needed on constraints including scalability, costs, resource inputs, energy demands, and technical readiness. Research on possible co-benefits, ocean acidification effects, environmental and social impacts, and governance is also required.

climate mitigation↗
DOE OSTI2022

Land-Based Wind Market Report: 2022 Edition

The U.S. Department of Energy's 2022 edition of its Land-Based Wind Market Report provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. wind power market, with a focus on 2021. You can find a report, data file and presentation on the Files tab, below. Additionally, several data visualizations are available on the Visualizations tab. Despite ongoing supply chain challenges, wind energy in 2021 continued to see strong growth, technology improvements, and low prices in the U.S. Key highlights include: Wind comprises a growing share of electricity supply: U.S. wind power capacity grew at a strong pace in 2021, with the 13.4 GW of new additions representing a $\$20$ billion investment and 32% of all newly added U.S. generation capacity. Wind energy output rose to account for more than 9% of the entire nation’s electricity supply. At least 247 GW of wind are seeking transmission interconnection; 77 GW of this capacity are offshore wind and 19 GW are hybrid plants that pair wind with storage or solar PV. Wind project performance has increased over the decades: The average capacity factor among recently built projects was nearly 40%, considerably higher than projects built earlier. The highest capacity factors are seen in the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country. Turbines continue to get larger: Improved plant performance has been driven by larger turbines mounted on taller towers and featuring longer blades. In 2011, no turbines employed blades that were 115 meters in diameter or larger, but in 2021, 89% of newly installed turbines featured such rotors. Proposed projects indicate that total turbine height will continue to rise. Low wind turbine pricing has pushed down installed project costs over the last decade: Wind turbine prices averaged $\$800$–$\$950$/kW in 2021, a 5% to 10% increase from the year prior but substantially lower than in 2010. The average installed cost of wind projects in 2021 was $\$1,500$/kW, down more than 40% since the peak in 2010, though relatively stable in recent years. The lowest costs were found in Texas and the (non-ISO) West. Wind energy prices are on the rise, but generally remain low, around $\$20$/MWh in the interior of the country with higher prices in the West and East. After topping out above $\$75$/MWh for power purchase agreements (PPAs) executed in 2009, the national average price of wind PPAs has dropped—though supply-chain pressures have resulted in increased prices in recent years. In the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country, recent pricing is around $\$20$/MWh. In the West and East, prices tend to average above $\$30$/MWh. These prices, which are possible in part due to federal tax support, fall below the projected future fuel costs of gas-fired generation. Wind PPA prices are often attractive compared to wind’s grid-system market value: The value of wind in wholesale power markets is affected by the location of wind plants, their hourly output profiles, and how those characteristics correlate with real-time electricity prices and capacity markets. The market value of wind increased in 2021, averaging $\$16$/MWh in MISO, $\$19$/MWh in SPP, $\$23$/MWh in NYISO, $\$31$/MWh in ERCOT, $\$33$/MWh in PJM, $\$44$/MWh in ISO-NE, and $\$48$/MWh in CAISO. The average levelized cost of wind energy was $\$32$/MWh for plants built in 2021: Levelized costs, which exclude the impacts of federal tax incentives, vary across time and geography. The national average stood at $\$32$/MWh in 2021—down substantially historically, though relatively stable in recent years. Levelized costs were lowest in ERCOT, SPP, and the (non-ISO) West. The health and climate benefits of wind in 2021 were larger than its grid-system value, and the combination of all three far exceeds the current levelized cost of wind: Wind generation reduces power-sector emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide. These reductions, in turn, provide public health and climate benefits that vary regionally, but together are economically valued at an average of over $\$90$/MWh-wind for plants built in 2021.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A global gridded dataset for cloud vertical structure from combined CloudSat and CALIPSO observations

Abstract. The vertical structure of clouds has a profound effect on the global energy budget, the global circulation, and the atmospheric hydrological cycle. The CloudSat and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) missions have taken complementary, colocated observations of cloud vertical structure for over a decade. However, no globally gridded dataset is available to the public for the full length of this unique combined data record. Here we present the 3S-GEOPROF-COMB product (Bertrand et al. 2023, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8057791), a globally gridded (level 3S) community data product summarizing geometrical profiles (GEOPROF) of hydrometeor occurrence from combined (COMB) CloudSat and CALIPSO data. Our product is calculated from the latest release (R05) of per-orbit (level-2) combined cloud mask profiles. We process a set of cloud cover, vertical cloud fraction, and sampling variables at 2.5, 5, and 10° spatial resolutions and monthly and seasonal temporal resolutions. We address the 2011 reduction in CloudSat data collection with Daylight-Only Operations (DO-Op) mode by subsampling pre-2011 data to mimic DO-Op collection patterns, thereby allowing users to evaluate the impact of the reduced sampling on their analyses. We evaluate our data product against CloudSat-only and CALIPSO-only global-gridded data products as well as four comparable surface-based sites, underscoring the added value of the combined product. Interest in the product is anticipated for the study of cloud processes, cloud–climate interactions, and as a candidate baseline climate data record for comparison to follow-up satellite missions, among other uses.

Bertrand, Leah (ORCID:0009000001607558)↗
DOE OSTI2022

An economic analysis of the role of materials, system engineering, and performance in electrochemical carbon dioxide conversion to formate

The development of technologies that utilize carbon dioxide is important to mitigating climate change. The electrochemical reduction of carbon dioxide is one technology that can utilize greenhouse gasses that would be otherwise be emitted to the atmosphere by producing chemicals and fuels from carbon dioxide and electricity. Significant progress has been made in the experimental performance of carbon dioxide reduction systems with novel catalyst designs, new materials, and systems engineering; however, no work has linked such changes in stack design and materials to capital costs for the stack itself. In this study, we present an analysis that accounts for and analyzes the impacts of alternative materials and system architectures on manufactured costs of carbon dioxide reduction stacks, thus providing a framework to understand exactly how these advances impact the at-scale capital costs of these systems. Specifically, we consider the impact that the addition of a catholyte buffer layer has on an electrolyzer reducing carbon dioxide to formate, finding that the cost of manufacturing this part only increases stack costs by about $30/m 2 at high manufacturing rates, while previous work finds that this part improves system performance. This work shows that the links between system performance, materials, and costs are nonlinear, and that achieving low-cost scalability requires optimization of not just performance parameters but also the use of low-cost and highly scalable materials. These results bridge experimental and techno-economic analysis of processes for carbon dioxide reduction, informing researchers by providing a quantifiable estimate of the impact of advances in electrochemical carbon dioxide reduction technology on manufactured stack capital costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Liquid Containing Clouds at the North Slope of Alaska Demonstrate Sensitivity to Local Industrial Aerosol Emissions

Abstract Cloud condensation nucleus control alter cloud solar albedo through cloud droplet size. Here, we leverage anthropogenic emissions at the North Slope of Alaska as a natural laboratory to study relationships between aerosols and Arctic liquid‐containing clouds. Averaging 14 years of MODIS observations, we found a reduction in temporally averaged cloud effective radius ( ) of up to 1.0 μm related to localized pollution. Pronounced regional gradients in cloud frequency of occurrence and liquid water path prohibit the detection of potential changes of these variables. Observed changes of alter radiative fluxes and increase cloud‐reflected shortwave radiation by up to 0.8 W m − 2 in the Prudhoe Bay area for the period covered by observations (April–September). Due to the frequent occurrence of liquid‐containing clouds, this implies that enhanced local emissions in Arctic regions can impact climate processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Soil management practices can contribute to net carbon neutrality in California

Stabilizing climate requires reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and storing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in land or ocean systems. Soil management practices can reduce GHG emissions or sequester atmospheric CO 2 into inorganic and organic forms. However, whether soil carbon strategies represent a viable and impactful climate mitigation pathway is uncertain. A specific question concerns the role that land-management practices and soil amendments can play in realizing California's ambition for carbon neutrality by 2045. Here we examine the carbon flux impacts of soil conservation (i.e., compost, reduced tillage, cover crop) and enhanced silicate rock weathering (EW) practices at different areal extents of implementation in cropland, grassland, and savanna in California under two climate change cases. We show that with implementation areas of 15% or 50% of private cultivated land, grassland, and savanna in California, soil conservation practices alone can contribute $1.4^{2.1}_{0.7}$% ($-1.8^{-2.7}_{ -0.9}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ) and $4.6^{6.9}_{2.3}$% ($-6.0^{-8.9}_{-3.0}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ) of the additional emissions reduction needed (beyond previous targets) to meet the 2045 net neutrality goal (-129.3 Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ), respectively, on an average annual basis, including climate uncertainty. Including EW in these scenarios increases the total contributions of management practices to $4.1^{5.6}_{2.5}$% ($-5.2^{-7.3}_{-3.2}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ) and $13.5^{18.6}_{8.2}$% ($-17.5^{-24.2}_{-10.7}$ Mt CO 2 eq y -1 ), respectively, of this reduction. This highlights that the extent of implementation area is a major factor in determining benefits and that EW has the potential to make a real contribution to net reduction targets. Results are similar across climate cases, indicating that contemporary field data can be used to make future projections. With EW there remains mechanistic uncertainties, however, such as rock dissolution rate and environmental controls on weathering products, which require additional field research to improve understanding of the technological efficacy of this approach for California's 2045 carbon neutrality goal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Asymmetric response of Amazon forest water and energy fluxes to wet and dry hydrological extremes reveals onset of a local drought-induced tipping point

Understanding the effects of intensification of Amazon basin hydrological cycling—manifest as increasingly frequent floods and droughts—on water and energy cycles of tropical forests is essential to meeting the challenge of predicting ecosystem responses to climate change, including forest “tipping points”. Here, we investigated the impacts of hydrological extremes on forest function using 12+ years of observations (between 2001–2020) of water and energy fluxes from eddy covariance, along with associated ecological dynamics from biometry, at the Tapajós National Forest. Measurements encompass the strong 2015–2016 El Niño drought and La Niña 2008–2009 wet events. We found that the forest responded strongly to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Drought reduced water availability for evapotranspiration ( ET ) leading to large increases in sensible heat fluxes ( H ). Partitioning ET by an approach that assumes transpiration ( T ) is proportional to photosynthesis, we found that water stress-induced reductions in canopy conductance ( G s ) drove T declines partly compensated by higher evaporation ( E ). By contrast, the abnormally wet La Niña period gave higher T and lower E , with little change in seasonal ET . Both El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events resulted in changes in forest structure, manifested as lower wet-season leaf area index. However, only during El Niño 2015–2016, we observed a breakdown in the strong meteorological control of transpiration fluxes (via energy availability and atmospheric demand) because of slowing vegetation functions (via shutdown of G s and significant leaf shedding). Drought-reduced T and G s , higher H and E , amplified by feedbacks with higher temperatures and vapor pressure deficits, signaled that forest function had crossed a threshold, from which it recovered slowly, with delay, post-drought. In conclusion, identifying such tipping point onsets (beyond which future irreversible processes may occur) at local scale is crucial for predicting basin-scale threshold-crossing changes in forest energy and water cycling, leading to slow-down in forest function, potentially resulting in Amazon forests shifting into alternate degraded states.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nature-based climate solutions can help mitigate the radiative forcing that follows deforestation

Widespread expansion of agriculture and forestry has altered the surface of the Earth, the composition of the atmosphere, and as a result, the climate. Here we quantify the radiative forcing caused by the historical deforestation of an ecoregion in the U.S. Upper Midwest and the adoption of eight nature-based climate solutions. We combined regional forest inventory data with over three decades of remote sensing and in situ data from a replicated land use change experiment. Deforestation of the region caused net global warming (1626 ± 44 µW m -2 ), mainly from the 76 % reduction of ecosystem carbon stocks, but also from the 84 % reduction of the soil methane sink and the 115 % increase in soil nitrous oxide emissions. The associated albedo increase offset 24 % of this greenhouse gas induced warming. For the adoption of nature-based climate solutions, we found that conservation agriculture can provide -39 to -76 ± 31 µW m -2 of climate mitigation over a 100-year time period while short/medium length forestry rotations can provide more at -296 to -881 ± 44 µW m -2 and natural forest regeneration can provide the most at -1555 ± 44 µW m -2 . As the impacts of climate change on nature and society intensify, consideration should be given to the climate mitigation, habitat, and ecosystem services that nature-based climate solutions can provide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗