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At least 217 records · Page 12

Diurnal cycle of precipitation over the tropics and central United States: intercomparison of general circulation models

Diurnal precipitation is a fundamental mode of variability that climate models have difficulty in accurately simulating. Here, in this work, the diurnal cycle of precipitation (DCP) in participating climate models from the Global Energy and Water Exchanges' DCP project is evaluated over the tropics and central United States. Common model biases such as excessive precipitation over the tropics, too frequent light-to-moderate rain, and the failure to capture propagating convection in the central United States still exist. Over the central United States, the issues of too weak rainfall intensity in climate runs is well improved in their hindcast runs with initial conditions from numerical weather prediction analyses. But the improvement is minimal over the central Amazon. Incorporating the role of the large-scale environment in convective triggering processes helps resolve the phase-locking issue in many models where precipitation often incorrectly peaks near noon due to maximum insolation over land. Allowing air parcels to be lifted above the boundary layer improves the simulation of nocturnal precipitation which is often associated with the propagation of mesoscale systems. Including convective memory in cumulus parameterizations acts to suppress light-to-moderate rain and promote intense rainfall; however, it also weakens the diurnal variability. Simply increasing model resolution (with cumulus parameterizations still used) cannot fully resolve the biases of low-resolution climate models in DCP. The hierarchy modeling framework from this study is useful for identifying the missing physics in models and testing new development of model convective processes over different convective regimes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A proposal for the intercomparison of the dynamical cores of atmospheric general circulation models

A benchmark calculation is proposed for evaluating the dynamical cores of atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) independently of the physical parameterizations. The test focuses on the long-term statistical properties of a fully developed general circulation; thus, it is particularly appropriate for intercomparing the dynamics used in climate models. To illustrate the use of this benchmark, two very different atmospheric dynamical cores--one spectral, one finite difference--are compared. It is found that the long-term statistics produced by the two models are very similar. Selected results from these calculations are presented to initiate the intercomparison.

Held, Isaac M.↗

Models of atmosphere-ecosystem-hydrology interactions: Approaches and testing

Interactions among the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, and the hydrological cycle have been the subject of investigation for many years, although most of the research has had a regional focus. The topic is broad, including the effects of climate and hydrology on vegetation, the effects of vegetation on hydrology, the effects of the hydrological cycle on the atmosphere, and interactions of the cycles via material flux such as solutes and trace gases. The intent of this paper is to identify areas of critical uncertainty, discuss modeling approaches to resolving those problems, and then propose techniques for testing. I consider several interactions specifically to illustrate the range of problems. These areas are as follows: (1) cloud parameterizations and the land surface, (2) soil moisture, and (3) the terrestrial carbon cycle.

Schimel, David S.↗

Cold Climate Integrated Heat Pump with Energy Storage for Grid-Responsive Control

An air-source integrated heat pump (ASIHP) is a multifunctional unit, capable of space cooling, space heating, and water heating. We developed a packaged cold climate ASIHP, using a multi-stage compressor, capable of working down to -25°C, and providing 100% rated capacity down to -15°C with a heating COP > 2.2. An innovative system configuration and related controls were developed to solve charge balance in the integrated heat pump, smooth charge migration, and mode transition among multiple working modes. Extensive laboratory investigations for individual modes were performed to verify the performance. Its integrated heating capability provides speedy water heating to meet domestic hot water use and store heating energy in a phase change material ceiling/panel. The heating energy storage can be used to shift the load when the electricity price is high. Based on the performance data and a calibrated model from the laboratory testing, we conducted building energy simulations driven by a model predictive control, using EnergyPlus in one U.S. cold climate zone to investigate the grid-responsive control strategy and estimate the utility cost reduction potential.

Shen, Bo↗

What can the GRACE seasonal cycle tell us about lake-aquifer interactions?

Lake-aquifer interactions have been the subject of investigation and debate for decades. Traditional investigation methods include measurement of water flux across the groundwater-surface water interface, application of heat and environmental tracer methods, conducting numerical simulations of the water flow, and mass balance-based approaches. We first review, evaluate and describe the different approaches that have been applied for examining lake-aquifer interactions and propose an additional complementary approach. While the leakage from lakes and its slow movement through porous media (laminar flow) is well characterized by existing methods, modeling the rapid and turbulent flow through preferred pathways (faults/karst) remains a challenging task. To better understand the nature, and the full scale, of the lake aquifer interactions, and using Lake Nasser and the underlying Dakhla subbasin of the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS) in the Western Desert of Egypt (area: 0.66 x 10 6 km 2 ) as a test site, we examine, model, and correlate temporally and spatially, the variations in Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment terrestrial water storage (GRACE TWS ) solutions, with precipitation, lake levels, area, and water volume. We review current GRACE applications in hydrology and present our novel approach. Findings include: firstly, large seasonal fluctuations (peak: Nov./Dec.; trough: July/Aug.) in Lake Nasser's surface water levels (average annual fluctuations: from 3.7 m to 7.5 m), area (average area: 3622 km 2 but up to 4530 km 2 ), and volume (annual average: 13.4 km 3 , and up to 34 km 3 ) are observed throughout years 2006 to 2015. These fluctuations are accompanied by an increase in GRACE TWS (average: 50 ± 13 mm/yr, up to 77 ± 18 mm/yr) over Lake Nasser and by a progression of a front of increasing GRACE TWS values (> 50 ± 13 mm) away from the lake reaching distances of up to 700 km some 3 to 5 months following peak lake level periods. The areas witnessing the seasonal increase in GRACE TWS display a progressive increase in phase and decrease in amplitude with distance from the lake. Secondly, the negligible precipitation over the Dakhla subbasin cannot account for the observed seasonal GRACE TWS patterns and neither can the leakage signal from Lake Nasser. Thirdly, overall similarities in the distribution of GRACE TWS seasonal spatial patterns are observed. During high lake level periods (e.g., Dec. 2007; Feb. 2015) additional, and more distant, areas from Lake Nasser saw increases in GRACE TWS and vice versa during low lake level periods (e.g., July 2006; Aug. 2010). These observations are consistent with Lake Nasser being the main source of modern recharge for the Dakhla subbasin and suggest a new conceptual model for the subbasin: a slow groundwater flow through a porous matrix and a rapid groundwater flow along a network of faults, fractures, and karst topography across the matrix. We suggest that the proposed conceptual model for the interaction between Lake Nasser and the Dakhla subbasin could be applicable to aquifers of similar geologic, climatic, and hydrologic settings worldwide and that approaches similar to those advocated here could be used to investigate the validity of this suggestion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantification and Mitigation of Long-Term Impacts of Urbanization and Climate Change in the Tropical Coastal City of San Juan, Puerto Rico

Urbanization, along with other cases of land cover and land use changes, has significant climate impacts in tropical regions with the added complexity of occurring within the context of global warming. The individual and combined effects of these two factors on the surface energy balance of a tropical city are investigated by use of an integrated atmospheric modeling approach, taking the San Juan Metropolitan Area (SJMA), Puerto Rico as the test case. To achieve this goal, an ensemble of climate and weather simulations is performed, with the climate scenarios combining urban development and sprawl with regional climate change over the past 50 years, and the short-term simulations designed to test the sensitivity to different urban vegetation configurations as mitigating alternatives. As indicator of change, we use the thermal response number (TRN), which is a measure of the sensible heating to the thermal storage of a surface or region, and the Bowen ratio, which is defined as the ratio of sensible to latent heat fluxes. The TRN of the area occupied by the SJMA has decreased as a consequence of replacing the low land coastal plain vegetation with man made materials, indicating that it takes less energy to raise the surface temperature of the urban area, whereas the TRN of forested regions has remained virtually unchanged. The global warming signal also has effects on the thermal response of the SJMA, where dryer current conditions generate lower TRN values. Differences due to global warming are more evident in the Bowen ratio pattern, mostly associated with the drier present conditions observed and its effects on sensible and latent heat fluxes. In terms of testing different mitigation strategies, the short-term simulations show that the urban area is more efficient in partitioning surface energy balance terms when green roofs are specified, as opposed to including vegetation inside the urban core.

Comarazamy, Daniel↗

A gradient model of vegetation and climate utilizing NOAA satellite imagery. Phase 1: Texas transect

A new experimental climatological model/variable termed the sponge, a measure of moisture availability based on daily temperature maxima and minima and precipitation, is tested for potential biogeographic, ecological, and agro-climatological applications. Results, depicted in tabular and graphic from, suggest that, as a generalized climatic index, sponge's simplicity and sensitivity make particularly appropriate for trans-regional biogeographic studies (e.g., large-area and global vegetation monitoring). The feasibility of utilizing NOAA/AVHRR data for vegetation classification was investigated and a vegetation gradient model that utilizes sponge, and AVHRR pixel data (channels 1 and 2) were obtained for 12 locations. The normalized difference values for the AVHRR data when plotted against vegetation characteristics (biomass, net productivity, leaf area) and sponge values suggest that a multivariate gradient model incorporating AVHRR and sponge data may indeed be useful in global vegetation stratification and monitoring.

Greegor, D. H.↗

Coast-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment

Accurately representing the climate and weather variability within cities and providing well-tested representations of the impacts of urban systems on the atmospheric environment are challenges for current earth system models (ESMs). Field data for testing and developing these models are critical to addressing these limitations. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility will support a field campaign aimed at understanding how different surface-atmosphere interactions around a city are influencing its climate. The Coast-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment (CoURAGE) is expected to operate from December 2024 to November 2025 in and around Baltimore, Maryland. With its aging infrastructure, growing susceptibility to heat and flooding, and ongoing issues with air and water pollution, Baltimore is characteristic of many large industrial cities in the Eastern United States. ARM, a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science user facility, plans to deploy one of its three mobile observatories at Morgan State University’s Clifton Park site in downtown Baltimore. Ancillary ARM sites are also planned for rural Maryland, northwest of the city; and to the southern end of Kent Island in Chesapeake Bay. Data from CoURAGE will complement measurements from the Baltimore Social-Environmental Collaborative (BSEC), one of four DOE Urban Integrated Field Laboratories that will operate in cities across the United States to study urban climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulations of Aerosol Microphysics in the NASA GEOS-5 Model

Aerosol-cloud-chemistry interactions have potentially large but uncertain impacts on Earth's climate. One path to addressing these uncertainties is to construct models that incorporate various components of the Earth system and to test these models against data. To that end, we have previously incorporated the Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation, and Transport (GOCART) module online in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model (GEOS-5). GEOS-5 provides a platform for Earth system modeling, incorporating atmospheric and ocean general circulation models, a land surface model, a data assimilation system, and treatments of atmospheric chemistry and hydrologic cycle. Including GOCART online in this framework has provided a path for interactive aerosol-climate studies; however, GOCART only tracks the mass of aerosols as external mixtures and does not include the detailed treatments of aerosol size distribution and composition (internal mixtures) needed for aerosol-cloud-chemistry-climate studies. To address that need we have incorporated the Community Aerosol and Radiation Model for Atmospheres (CARMA) online in GEOS-5. CARMA is a sectional aerosol-cloud microphysical model, capable of treating both aerosol size and composition explicitly be resolving the aerosol distribution into a variable number of size and composition groupings. Here we present first simulations of dust, sea salt, and smoke aerosols in GEOS-5 as treated by CARMA. These simulations are compared to available aerosol satellite, ground, and aircraft data and as well compared to the simulated distributions in our current GOCART based system.

Colarco, Peter↗

Object-Based Evaluation of Dynamical and Statistical Downscaled Precipitation Products over CONUS

High-resolution precipitation data, generated through dynamical downscaling (DD) or statistical downscaling (SD) of global climate model output, provide critical information for regional climate assessment and adaptation planning. Most downscaling development and validation have focused on accurate gridscale precipitation construction and ignored the spatial structure of precipitation across model grids and at the event scale. However, many applications, e.g., hydrologic modeling and the analysis using the downscaled precipitation, require a reasonable representation of the spatial structure of precipitation within watersheds. Therefore, a set of standard metrics to evaluate the representation of the spatial structure of individual storms across diverse downscaled precipitation products is desired. To address this need, we conducted an object-based evaluation of precipitation in decades-long DD and SD products over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Specifically, we evaluate their ability to reproduce various features of precipitation objects in the observations: total volume, precipitation area, peak intensity, and spatial structure. Multiple metrics (bias, Perkins score, and nonparametric statistical tests) are used to quantify model performance. Our evaluation reveals notable variations in performance among individual products across different climate zones and seasons, as well as between extreme and nonextreme events. In general, most DD products exhibit balanced performance across the four precipitation object features, while SD products vary more significantly in their performance across products. Based on this comprehensive evaluation, we provide guidance on choosing downscaled products for specific regions, seasons, and precipitation object features. These findings and recommendations can inform precipitation-relevant modeling and analysis over CONUS, guide future downscaling technique developments, and provide actionable information for climate impact assessment and adaptation.

Downscaling↗

Object-Based Evaluation of Dynamical and Statistical Downscaled Precipitation Products over CONUS

High-resolution precipitation data, generated through dynamical downscaling (DD) or statistical downscaling (SD) of global climate model output, provide critical information for regional climate assessment and adaptation planning. Most downscaling development and validation have focused on accurate gridscale precipitation construction and ignored the spatial structure of precipitation across model grids and at the event scale. However, many applications, e.g., hydrologic modeling and the analysis using the downscaled precipitation, require a reasonable representation of the spatial structure of precipitation within watersheds. Therefore, a set of standard metrics to evaluate the representation of the spatial structure of individual storms across diverse downscaled precipitation products is desired. To address this need, we conducted an object-based evaluation of precipitation in decades-long DD and SD products over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Specifically, we evaluate their ability to reproduce various features of precipitation objects in the observations: total volume, precipitation area, peak intensity, and spatial structure. Multiple metrics (bias, Perkins score, and nonparametric statistical tests) are used to quantify model performance. Our evaluation reveals notable variations in performance among individual products across different climate zones and seasons, as well as between extreme and nonextreme events. In general, most DD products exhibit balanced performance across the four precipitation object features, while SD products vary more significantly in their performance across products. Based on this comprehensive evaluation, we provide guidance on choosing downscaled products for specific regions, seasons, and precipitation object features. These findings and recommendations can inform precipitation-relevant modeling and analysis over CONUS, guide future downscaling technique developments, and provide actionable information for climate impact assessment and adaptation.

Environmental sciences↗

Effective Interpolation of Incomplete Satellite-Derived Leaf-Area Index Time Series for the Continental United States

Many earth science modeling applications employ continuous input data fields derived from satellite data. Environmental factors, sensor limitations and algorithmic constraints lead to data products of inherently variable quality. This necessitates interpolation of one form or another in order to produce high quality input fields free of missing data. The present research tests several interpolation techniques as applied to satellite-derived leaf area index, an important quantity in many global climate and ecological models. The study evaluates and applies a variety of interpolation techniques for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Leaf-Area Index Product over the time period 2001-2006 for a region containing the conterminous United States. Results indicate that the accuracy of an individual interpolation technique depends upon the underlying land cover. Spatial interpolation provides better results in forested areas, while temporal interpolation performs more effectively over non-forest cover types. Combination of spatial and temporal approaches offers superior interpolative capabilities to any single method, and in fact, generation of continuous data fields requires a hybrid approach such as this.

Jasinski, Michael F.↗

A class of the van Leer-type transport schemes and its application to the moisture transport in a general circulation model

A generalized form of the second-order van Leer transport scheme is derived. Several constraints to the implied subgrid linear distribution are discussed. A very simple positive-definite scheme can be derived directly from the generalized form. A monotonic version of the scheme is applied to the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) general circulation model (GCM) for the moisture transport calculations, replacing the original fourth-order center-differencing scheme. Comparisons with the original scheme are made in idealized tests as well as in a summer climate simulation using the full GLA GCM. A distinct advantage of the monotonic transport scheme is its ability to transport sharp gradients without producing spurious oscillations and unphysical negative mixing ratio. Within the context of low-resolution climate simulations, the aforementioned characteristics are demonstrated to be very beneficial in regions where cumulus convection is active. The model-produced precipitation pattern using the new transport scheme is more coherently organized both in time and in space, and correlates better with observations. The side effect of the filling algorithm used in conjunction with the original scheme is also discussed, in the context of idealized tests. The major weakness of the proposed transport scheme with a local monotonic constraint is its substantial implicit diffusion at low resolution. Alternative constraints are discussed to counter this problem.

Lin, Shian-Jiann↗

Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME): Ocean and Sea-Ice Processes

The primary goal of this project was to understand the role of the ocean and sea-ice components in the evolution of the climate in both a high-resolution fully-coupled 1850 preindustrial control and present day transient climate simulations run using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), formerly known as the Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME). Two distinct approaches to the initialization of the present day transients were tested: in the first, an ensemble of three transients used atmospheric reanalysis forced 0.1-degree ocean/sea-ice states, while a fourth transient was branched off the preindustrial control. Biases from the control were inherited by its successor transient, in particular, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) at high latitudes were too warm and too much northward meridional heat transport occurred in the North Atlantic Ocean. SSTs in the Northern Hemisphere and Atlantic meridional heat transport increased in the transients initialized from the ocean/sea-ice simulation over a 40-50 year period to largely resemble the transient branched off the control simulation. Excessive absorbed solar radiation (ASR) is considered to be responsible for the SST biases as well as the formation of mode waters in lighter density classes than in reality both in the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic Ocean subtropical gyre. These mode waters ventilate the thermocline waters to the north of their formation sites explaining the excessive Atlantic meridional heat transport and some of the warming in the high-latitude North Atlantic Ocean after multiple decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A two-component rain model for the prediction of attenuation and diversity improvement

A new model was developed to predict attenuation statistics for a single Earth-satellite or terrestrial propagation path. The model was extended to provide predictions of the joint occurrences of specified or higher attenuation values on two closely spaced Earth-satellite paths. The joint statistics provide the information required to obtain diversity gain or diversity advantage estimates. The new model is meteorologically based. It was tested against available Earth-satellite beacon observations and terrestrial path measurements. The model employs the rain climate region descriptions of the Global rain model. The rms deviation between the predicted and observed attenuation values for the terrestrial path data was 35 percent, a result consistent with the expectations of the Global model when the rain rate distribution for the path is not used in the calculation. Within the United States the rms deviation between measurement and prediction was 36 percent but worldwide it was 79 percent.

Crane, R. K.↗

The case for a wet, warm climate on early Mars

Arguments are presented in support of the idea that Mars possessed a dense CO2 atmosphere and a wet, warm climate early in its history. The plausibility of a CO2 greenhouse is tested by formulating a simple model of the CO2 geochemical cycle on early Mars. By scaling the rate of silicate weathering on Earth, researchers estimated a weathering time constant of the order of several times 10 to the 7th power years for early Mars. Thus, a dense atmosphere could have existed for a geologically significant time period (approx. 10 to the 9th power years) only if atmospheric CO2 was being continuously resupplied. The most likely mechanism by which this could have been accomplished is the thermal decomposition of carbonate rocks induced directly or indirectly by intense, global scale volcanism.

Pollack, J. B.↗

Numerical wave modeling for operational and survival analyses of wave energy converters at the US Navy Wave Energy Test Site in Hawaii

The US Navy Wave Energy Test Site (WETS) is currently operating three grid-connected berths off Marine Corps Base Hawaii in support of technological development through scaled-model testing and pre-commercial prototyping. The location on the east shore of Oahu is open to year-round wind waves and seasonal north swells as well as severe seas from subtropical systems and hurricanes. We have assembled a spectral wave model system comprising WAVEWATCH III and SWAN on a hierarchy of global, regional, and nearshore computational grids. With wind forcing from global forecast and rean-alysis datasets as well as their regional downscaling, the system produces operational 7-day wave forecasts and a long-term hindcast. The daily forecasts, validated with real-time buoy measurements, facilitate safe deployment, operation, and retrieval of wave energy converters (WECs). The wave hindcast from 1979 to 2017 defines the intra- and inter-annual variations for statistical analysis of sea states and energy resources. Due to limited occurrences of hurricanes in Hawaii waters, their wind forcing is determined parametrically with simulated tracks from climate model downscaling. Finally, systematic analysis of the hindcast and simulation datasets provides significant wave heights from trade winds, swells, subtropical systems, and hurricanes with return periods up to 100 years for WECs survival analysis.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

CARVE: The Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment

The Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE) is a NASA Earth Ventures (EV-1) investigation designed to quantify correlations between atmospheric and surface state variables for the Alaskan terrestrial ecosystems through intensive seasonal aircraft campaigns, ground-based observations, and analysis sustained over a 5-year mission. CARVE bridges critical gaps in our knowledge and understanding of Arctic ecosystems, linkages between the Arctic hydrologic and terrestrial carbon cycles, and the feedbacks from fires and thawing permafrost. CARVE's objectives are to: (1) Directly test hypotheses attributing the mobilization of vulnerable Arctic carbon reservoirs to climate warming; (2) Deliver the first direct measurements and detailed maps of CO2 and CH4 sources on regional scales in the Alaskan Arctic; and (3) Demonstrate new remote sensing and modeling capabilities to quantify feedbacks between carbon fluxes and carbon cycle-climate processes in the Arctic (Figure 1). We describe the investigation design and results from 2011 test flights in Alaska.

Arctic Carbon Cycle↗