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At least 217 records · Page 12

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions From Aviation Soot Emissions

Current models estimate global aviation contributes approximately 5% to the total anthropogenic climate forcing, with aerosol-cloud interactions having the greatest effect. However, radiative forcing estimates from aviation aerosol-cloud interactions remain undetermined. There is an expected significant increase in aircraft emissions with aviation demand expected to rise by over 4% per year. Soot may play an important role in the ice nucleation of aircraft-induced cirrus formation due to a high emission rate, but the ice nucleating properties are poorly constrained. Understanding the microphysical processes leading to atmospheric ice crystal formation is crucial for the reliable parameterization of aerosol-cloud interactions in climate models due to their impact on precipitation and cloud radiative properties. Ice nucleation of aircraft-emitted soot is potentially affected by particle morphology with condensation of supercooled water occurring in pores followed by ice nucleation. However, soot has heterogeneous properties and undergoes atmospheric aging and oxidation that could change surface properties and contribute to complex ice nucleation processes. Further, this review synthesizes current knowledge of ice nucleation catalyzed by aviation in the cirrus regime and its effects on global radiative forcing. Further research is required to determine the ice nucleation and microphysical processes of cirrus cloud formation from aviation emissions in both controlled laboratory and field investigations to inform models for more accurate climate predictions and to provide efficient mitigation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of ice-phase microphysical parameterization schemes using numerical simulations of tropical convection

The performance of several ice parameterizations has been evaluated through a numerical cloud model. Ice effects using different schemes are contrasted with each other and with an ice-free control by incorporating them into the cloud model and by applying them to simulations of tropical squall systems. The latter are simulated in 2D so that a large domain can be used to incorporate a complete anvil. Nonsquall-type convective lines are simulated in 3D owing to their smaller horizontal scale. It is concluded that inclusion of ice microphysics in the cloud model enhanced the agreement of the simulated convection with some features of observed convection, including the proportion of surface rainfall in the anvil region and the intensity and structure of the radar brightband near the melting level in the anvil. In the experiments with bulk microphysics, three ice categories produced much better results than two ice categories, which in turn was better than no ice. For the tropical squall-type and nonsquall-type systems the optimal mix was ice, snow, and graupel.

Mccumber, Michael↗

Overview of the HI-SCALE Field Campaign: A New Perspective on Shallow Convective Clouds

Shallow convective clouds are common, occurring over many areas of the world, and are an important component in the atmospheric radiation budget. In addition to synoptic and mesoscale meteorological conditions, land-atmosphere interactions and aerosol-radiation-cloud interactions can influence the formation of shallow clouds and their properties. However, these processes exhibit large spatial and temporal variability and occur at the sub-grid scale for all climate and operational forecast models and must be represented by parameterizations. Uncertainties in shallow cloud parameterization predictions arise from many sources, including insufficient coincident data needed to adequately represent the coupling of cloud macrophysical and microphysical properties with inhomogeneity in the surface layer, boundary layer, and aerosol properties. Predictions in the transition of shallow to deep convection and the onset of precipitation are also affected by errors in simulated shallow clouds. Coincident data is a key factor needed to achieve a more complete understanding of the lifecycle of shallow convective clouds and to develop improved model parameterizations. To address these issues, the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols and Land Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) campaign was conducted near the Atmospheric Radiation and Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains site in north-central Oklahoma during 2016. We describe the scientific objectives of HI-SCALE as well as the experimental approach, the overall weather conditions during the campaign, and preliminary findings from the measurements. Finally, we discuss the remaining scientific gaps in our understanding of shallow clouds that can be addressed by analysis and modeling studies that use HI-SCALE data including: the effects of heterogeneous land-use, vegetation, and soil moisture conditions on boundary layer mixing and consequently cloud formation; factors that contribute to the transition of shallow to deep convection; the role of cloud population on

Fast, Jerome D.↗

Final Technical Report for "High-resolution global modeling of the effects of subgrid-scale clouds and turbulence on precipitating cloud systems"

The Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) embeds a cloud-resolving model in each grid column of a General Circulation Model (GCM). A MMF model does not need to use a deep convective parameterization, and thereby dispenses with the uncertainties in such parameterizations. However, MMF models grossly under-resolve shallow boundary-layer clouds, and hence those clouds may still benefit from parameterization. In this grant, we successfully created a climate model that embeds a cloud parameterization (“CLUBB”) within a MMF model. This involved interfacing CLUBB’s clouds with microphysics and reducing computational cost. We have evaluated the resulting simulated clouds and precipitation with satellite observations. The chief benefit of the project is to provide a MMF model that has an improved representation of clouds and that provides improved simulations of precipitation.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Structurally flexible cloud microphysics, observationally constrained at all scales via ML-accelerated Bayesian inference

We discuss the challenge of developing observationally informed parameterizations of microphysics for use at a hierarchy of modeling scales. Our proposed approach is applicable to any domain that suffers from a two-fold parameterization problem, where physical processes are not resolved at the model scale (the first problem), and those processes are uncertain at any scale (the second problem). For such problems, a physical approach facilitates modeling across scales, as well as systematic observational inference accelerated by machine learning (ML) surrogate models, and quantification of physical uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Freezing Processes in Southern Ocean Mixed Phase Clouds (Final Technical Report)

Southern Ocean (SO) low-level clouds remain a challenge for Earth system models to represent accurately. This project utilized DOE ARM observations and the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) to improve process-level understanding of aerosol-cloud interactions and cloud microphysics for SO mixed-phase clouds. Specifically, our efforts include two main topics: 1) investigate the SO aerosol, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and ice nucleating particle (INP) population based on observations and determine predictive skill of simulating SO INPs, and 2) assess the ice formation pathways, including ice nucleation and secondary ice production, in SO mixed phase clouds utilizing a combination of observations and modeling tools. Studies focused on SO aerosol and INP resulted four manuscripts. Ice formation pathways in SO mixed phase clouds were investigated, revealing observed evidence of SIP active across all mixed phase temperatures. However, a key finding of this project is that despite significant progress in predicting SO INPs, the role of INP variability in SO cloud phase, precipitation, and radiative properties remain unknown due to challenges in microphysics parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Winter QPF Sensitivities to Snow Parameterizations and Comparisons to NASA CloudSat Observations

Steady increases in computing power have allowed for numerical weather prediction models to be initialized and run at high spatial resolution, permitting a transition from larger scale parameterizations of the effects of clouds and precipitation to the simulation of specific microphysical processes and hydrometeor size distributions. Although still relatively coarse in comparison to true cloud resolving models, these high resolution forecasts (on the order of 4 km or less) have demonstrated value in the prediction of severe storm mode and evolution and are being explored for use in winter weather events . Several single-moment bulk water microphysics schemes are available within the latest release of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model suite, including the NASA Goddard Cumulus Ensemble, which incorporate some assumptions in the size distribution of a small number of hydrometeor classes in order to predict their evolution, advection and precipitation within the forecast domain. Although many of these schemes produce similar forecasts of events on the synoptic scale, there are often significant details regarding precipitation and cloud cover, as well as the distribution of water mass among the constituent hydrometeor classes. Unfortunately, validating data for cloud resolving model simulations are sparse. Field campaigns require in-cloud measurements of hydrometeors from aircraft in coordination with extensive and coincident ground based measurements. Radar remote sensing is utilized to detect the spatial coverage and structure of precipitation. Here, two radar systems characterize the structure of winter precipitation for comparison to equivalent features within a forecast model: a 3 GHz, Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) based in Omaha, Nebraska, and the 94 GHz NASA CloudSat Cloud Profiling Radar, a spaceborne instrument and member of the afternoon or "A-Train" of polar orbiting satellites tasked with cataloguing global cloud characteristics. Each system provides a unique perspective. The WSR-88D operates in a surveillance mode, sampling cloud volumes of Rayleigh scatterers where reflectivity is proportional to the sixth moment of the size distribution of equivalent spheres. The CloudSat radar provides enhanced sensitivity to smaller cloud ice crystals aloft, as well as consistent vertical profiles along each orbit. However, CloudSat reflectivity signatures are complicated somewhat by resonant Mie scattering effects and significant attenuation in the presence of cloud or rain water. Here, both radar systems are applied to a case of light to moderate snowfall within the warm frontal zone of a cold season, synoptic scale storm. Radars allow for an evaluation of the accuracy of a single-moment scheme in replicating precipitation structures, based on the bulk statistical properties of precipitation as suggested by reflectivity signatures.

Molthan, Andrew↗

A Path to Improving Simulated Properties of Low Clouds over the Beaufort Sea using Airborne In Situ Observations of Subgrid-Scale Variability

Arctic low clouds influence the evolution of the Arctic system through their effects on radiative fluxes, boundary layer mixing, stability, turbulence, humidity, and precipitation. Unfortunately, atmospheric models and retrospective analysis (reanalysis) products struggle to accurately simulate the occurrence and properties of low clouds in the Arctic. One of the main reasons for this problem are the possible unrealistic assumptions that models/reanalyses make about the subgrid-scale (SGS) variability of meteorological properties, as well as the relationship between SGS variability and grid-scale (GS) cloud properties. We utilize cloud and thermodynamic data of low level (primarily) liquid clouds collected from two aircraft campaigns conducted over the Beaufort Sea to better understand and characterize this problem. Examining data from the September 2014 Arctic Radiation-IceBridge Sea and Ice Experiment (ARISE) airborne campaign reveals that GS cloud water variability is closely related with SGS distribution of total water (i.e. water vapor + cloud water). Multiple models/reanalyses use SGS supersaturated total water (relative to GS saturation) as a threshold for partitioning available water for condensation, and indeed we find significant correlation between GS cloud water and SGS supersaturation. However, we also find that the assumption of a static threshold of 100% saturation to be unrealistic. Empirical calculations from the ARISE data show a large sensitivity of this threshold to GS relative humidity, and so a microphysical parameterization allowing the threshold to vary according to GS thermodynamic properties may result in more realistic GS cloud water values. Finally, to determine how sensitive the ARISE-derived results are to that particular campaign, we include additional data from the First International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) Regional Experiment (FIRE)–Arctic Cloud Experiment (ACE) conducted in 1998. The inclusion of the second dataset will help with demonstrating the robustness of the results and their utility in improving the representation of Arctic clouds in models and reanalyses.

J Brant Dodson↗

Formulation of autoconversion and drop spectra shape in shallow cumulus clouds

Two-moment autoconversion parameterizations as compared to accretion parameterizations exhibit significant errors suggesting that additional moments are needed to increase their accuracy. We develop a three-moment autoconversion parameterization using output from an LES model with size-resolved microphysics. Adding the third moment decreases the errors of parameterization and improves precipitation prediction. However, the errors are still significantly larger than errors of accretion rate. An analysis of the cloud drop size distributions (DSDs) in the simulated tropical convective cloud system reveals that most of DSDs have a significant fraction of cloud liquid water content (qc) in the mid-size droplet range (radii from 20 to 40 microns). Our data indicates that more than 30% of DSDs have over half of qc contained in the mid-size range and about 60% of spectra have, at least, one third of qc in this range. Even when the rain/drizzle mode is small (radar reflectivity Z < -10 dBZ), there is a significant number of spectra in which fraction of qc in the mid-size range is as large as 60%. These DSDs are more complex than the frequently used single-mode Gamma or Log-normal distributions, which usually do not have a considerable tail extending to the mid-size range and can be defined by three microphysical moments. The need to define DSDs by more than three moments explains the large errors in the three-moment autoconversion parameterization. The limitation of three-parameter Gamma or Log-normal distributions should be kept in mind when applying them in precipitating shallow Cu clouds.

Kogan, Yefim↗

Cloud microphysical response to entrainment and mixing is locally inhomogeneous and globally homogeneous: Evidence from the lab

Entrainment of dry air into clouds strongly influences cloud optical and precipitation properties and the response of clouds to aerosol perturbations. The response of cloud droplet size distributions to entrainment–mixing is examined in the Pi convection-cloud chamber that creates a turbulent, steady-state cloud. The experiments are conducted by injecting dry air with temperature (T e ) and flow rate (Q e ) through a flange in the top boundary, into the otherwise well-mixed cloud, to mimic the entrainment–mixing process. Due to the large-scale circulation, the downwind region is directly affected by entrained dry air, whereas the upwind region is representative of the background conditions. Droplet concentration (Cn) and liquid water content (L) decrease in the downwind region, but the difference in the mean diameter of droplets (D m ) is small. The shape of cloud droplet size distributions relative to the injection point is unchanged, to within statistical uncertainty, resulting in a signature of inhomogeneous mixing, as expected for droplet evaporation times small compared to mixing time scales. As T e and Q e of entrained air increase, however, Cn, L, and D m of the whole cloud system decrease, resulting in a signature of homogeneous mixing. The apparent contradiction is understood as the cloud microphysical responses to entrainment and mixing differing on local and global scales: locally inhomogeneous and globally homogeneous. This implies that global versus local sampling of clouds can lead to seemingly contradictory results for mixing, which informs the long-standing debate about the microphysical response to entrainment and the parameterization of this process for coarse-resolution models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating Subgrid-Scale Properties of Low Clouds over the Beaufort Sea in Arctic System Reanalysis using ARISE Airborne In Situ Observations

Arctic low clouds influence the evolution of the Arctic system through their effects on radiative fluxes, boundary layer mixing, stability, turbulence, humidity, and precipitation. Unfortunately, atmospheric models and retrospective analysis (reanalysis) products struggle to accurately simulate the occurrence and properties of low clouds in the Arctic. To better understand the magnitude and possible causes of this problem, we analyze the disagreements between the Arctic System Reanalysis version 2 (ASR) and data taken during the September 2014 Arctic Radiation-IceBridge Sea and Ice Experiment (ARISE) airborne campaign conducted over the Beaufort Sea. Previous analysis of grid scale-averaged meteorological variables revealed a lack of cloud water produced in ASR, related to warm/dry biases, a failure to produce sufficient cloud water in conditions that are observed to be favorable for large cloud water values, and sampling issues with the ARISE flight paths. However, ARISE collected meteorological observations at one second intervals, offering spatial data resolution comparable to the subgrid scale of ASR. Subgrid scale properties and processes must be parameterized in conventional atmospheric models and reanalyses such as ASR, and often rely on assumed distributions of meteorological variables about the grid box mean state. To enable an examination of the realism of ASR’s subgrid scale properties, we use high resolution data from ARISE determine the “subgrid scale” distributions of cloud water and thermodynamic variables in the real atmosphere. Preliminary results show that the subgrid scale distribution of thermodynamic variables about the grid scale mean resembles the triangular distribution assumed in many bulk microphysical parameterization schemes, but also with tails resembling Gaussian distributions. The main goal is to understand the partitioning of the total available atmospheric water into water vapor and cloud water. Models typically covert some percentage of total water in a grid box to cloud water based on the estimated amount of supersaturation from the assumed vapor distribution. The ARISE measurements can reveal the relationship between subgrid scale supersaturation and the partition between cloud water and water vapor.

Jason Brant Dodson↗

Climate Impacts of Ice Nucleation

Several different ice nucleation parameterizations in two different General Circulation Models (GCMs) are used to understand the effects of ice nucleation on the mean climate state, and the Aerosol Indirect Effects (AIE) of cirrus clouds on climate. Simulations have a range of ice microphysical states that are consistent with the spread of observations, but many simulations have higher present-day ice crystal number concentrations than in-situ observations. These different states result from different parameterizations of ice cloud nucleation processes, and feature different balances of homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation. Black carbon aerosols have a small (0.06 Wm(exp-2) and not statistically significant AIE when included as ice nuclei, for nucleation efficiencies within the range of laboratory measurements. Indirect effects of anthropogenic aerosols on cirrus clouds occur as a consequence of increasing anthropogenic sulfur emissions with different mechanisms important in different models. In one model this is due to increases in homogeneous nucleation fraction, and in the other due to increases in heterogeneous nucleation with coated dust. The magnitude of the effect is the same however. The resulting ice AIE does not seem strongly dependent on the balance between homogeneous and heterogeneous ice nucleation. Regional effects can reach several Wm2. Indirect effects are slightly larger for those states with less homogeneous nucleation and lower ice number concentration in the base state. The total ice AIE is estimated at 0.27 +/- 0.10 Wm(exp-2) (1 sigma uncertainty). This represents a 20% offset of the simulated total shortwave AIE for ice and liquid clouds of 1.6 Wm(sup-2).

Gettelman, Andrew↗

A New Method for Ice-Ice Aggregation in the Adaptive Habit Model

In this paper, a novel methodology for modeling ice-ice aggregation is presented. This methodology combines a modified hydrodynamic collection algorithm with bulk aggregate characteristic information from an offline simulator that collects ice particles, namely, the Ice Particle and Aggregate Simulator, and has been implemented into the Adaptive Habit Microphysics scheme in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Aggregates, or snow, are formed via collection of cloud ice particles, where initial ice characteristics and the resulting geometry determine aggregate characteristics. Upon implementation, idealized squall-line simulations are performed to examine the new methodology in comparison with commonly used bulk microphysics schemes. It is found that the adaptive habit aggregation parameterization develops snow and reduces ice mass and number concentrations compared to other schemes. The development of aggregates through the new methodology cascades into other interesting effects, including enhancements in ice and snow growth, as well as homogeneous freezing. Further microphysical analyses reveal varying sensitivities, where snow processes are most sensitive to the new parameterization, followed by ice, then cloud, rain, and graupel processes. Further, the new scheme results in enhancements in surface precipitation due to the persistence of snow at lower altitudes. This persistence is a result of shape-dependent melting and sublimation, increasing the residence time. Moreover, these low-level enhancements are reflected in increases in radar reflectivity at the surface and its spatial distribution. Finally, the ability to predict snow shape and density allows for the simulation of polarimetric radar quantities, resulting in signature enhancements compared to schemes that do not consider spatial and temporal variations in snow shape and density.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

What Polarimetric Weather Radars Offer to Cloud Modelers: Forward Radar Operators and Microphysical/Thermodynamic Retrievals

The utilization of polarimetric weather radars for optimizing cloud models is a next frontier of research. It is widely understood that inadequacies in microphysical parameterization schemes in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is a primary cause of forecast uncertainties. Due to its ability to distinguish between hydrometeors with different microphysical habits and to identify “polarimetric fingerprints” of various microphysical processes, polarimetric radar emerges as a primary source of needed information. There are two approaches to leverage this information for NWP models: (1) radar microphysical and thermodynamic retrievals and (2) forward radar operators for converting the model outputs into the fields of polarimetric radar variables. In this paper, we will provide an overview of both. Polarimetric measurements can be combined with cloud models of varying complexity, including ones with bulk and spectral bin microphysics, as well as simplified Lagrangian models focused on a particular microphysical process. Combining polarimetric measurements with cloud modeling can reveal the impact of important microphysical agents such as aerosols or supercooled cloud water invisible to the radar on cloud and precipitation formation. Some pertinent results obtained from models with spectral bin microphysics, including the Hebrew University cloud model (HUCM) and 1D models of melting hail and snow coupled with the NSSL forward radar operator, are illustrated in the paper.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding the Microphysical Control and Spatial‐Temporal Variability of Warm Rain Probability Using CloudSat and MODIS Observations

Abstract By combining measurements from MODIS and the CloudSat radar, we develop a parameterization scheme to quantify the combined microphysical controls by liquid water path (LWP) and cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) of the probability of precipitation (PoP) in marine low cloud over tropical oceans. We demonstrate that the spatial‐temporal variation of grid‐mean in‐cloud can be largely explained by the variation of the joint probability density function of LWP and CDNC in the phase space specified by the bivariate PoP (LWP and CDNC) function. Through a series of sensitivity tests guided by this understanding, we find that in the Southeastern Pacific and Atlantic the stratocumulus to cumulus transition of the is mainly due to the variation of CDNC while the annual cycle is mainly due to the variation of LWP. The results of this study provide a viable way to diagnose the root cause of warm rain problems in global climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding the Microphysical Control and Spatial-Temporal Variability of Warm Rain Probability Using CloudSat and MODIS Observations

By combining measurements from MODIS and the CloudSat radar, we develop a parameterization scheme to quantify the combined microphysical controls by liquid water path (LWP) and cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) of the probability of precipitation (PoP) in marine low cloud over tropical oceans. We demonstrate that the spatial-temporal variation of grid-mean in-cloud can be largely explained by the variation of the joint probability density function of LWP and CDNC in the phase space specified by the bivariate PoP (LWP and CDNC) function. Through a series of sensitivity tests guided by this understanding, we find that in the Southeastern Pacific and Atlantic the stratocumulus to cumulus transition of the is mainly due to the variation of CDNC while the annual cycle is mainly due to the variation of LWP. The results of this study provide a viable way to diagnose the root cause of warm rain problems in global climate models.

Zhibo Zhang↗

Insensitivity of the Cloud Response to Surface Warming Under Radical Changes to Boundary Layer Turbulence and Cloud Microphysics: Results From the Ultraparameterized CAM

We study the cloud response to a +4K surface warming in a new multi- scale climate model that uses enough interior resolution to begin explicitly resolving boundary layer turbulence (i.e. Ultra-Parameterization or UP), and the associated low clouds. UP's predictions are compared against those from standard Super-Parameterization (SP). The mean global cloud feedback turns out to be remarkably neutral across all of our simulations, despite some radical changes in both cloud microphysical parameter settings and cloud resolving model grid resolution. The overall cloud response to warming is the positive low-cloud feedbacks over land, negative feedbacks at high latitudes, and weak feedbacks over the low-latitude oceans. The most distinct effects of UP appear to be the result of tuning decisions impacting high latitude cloud feedback. UP's microphysics are tuned to optimize the model present-day, top-of-atmosphere radiation fluxes against CERES observations, by lowering the cloud ice-liquid phase-shift temperature ramp, adjusting the ice/liquid autoconversion rate, and increasing the ice fall speed. This reduces baseline high-latitude low cloud amounts, damping the phase change cloud feedback at high latitudes, leading to a slightly more positive global cloud feedback compared to SP. A sensitivity test that isolates these microphysical impacts from UP's grid resolution conrms that the microphysical settings are mostly responsible for the dierences between SP and UP cloud feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A multiscale modeling framework model (superparameterized CAM5) with a higher‐order turbulence closure: Model description and low‐cloud simulations

Abstract In this study, a higher‐order turbulence closure scheme, called Cloud Layers Unified By Binormals (CLUBB), is implemented into a Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) model to improve low‐cloud simulations. The performance of CLUBB in MMF simulations with two different microphysics configurations (one‐moment cloud microphysics without aerosol treatment and two‐moment cloud microphysics coupled with aerosol treatment) is evaluated against observations and further compared with results from the Community Atmosphere Model, Version 5 (CAM5) with conventional cloud parameterizations. CLUBB is found to improve low‐cloud simulations in the MMF, and the improvement is particularly evident in the stratocumulus‐to‐cumulus transition regions. Compared to the single‐moment cloud microphysics, CLUBB with two‐moment microphysics produces clouds that are closer to the coast and agrees better with observations. In the stratocumulus‐to‐cumulus transition regions, CLUBB with two‐moment cloud microphysics produces short‐wave cloud forcing in better agreement with observations, while CLUBB with single‐moment cloud microphysics overestimates short‐wave cloud forcing. CLUBB is further found to produce quantitatively similar improvements in the MMF and CAM5, with slightly better performance in the MMF simulations (e.g., MMF with CLUBB generally produces low clouds that are closer to the coast than CAM5 with CLUBB). Improved low‐cloud simulations in MMF make it an even more attractive tool for studying aerosol‐cloud‐precipitation interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗