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Results for “conditional probability distribution”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1987

Optical communication with semiconductor laser diodes

A 25 megabit/sec direct detection optical communication system that used Q=4 PPM signalling was constructed and its performance measured under laboratory conditions. The system used a single-mode AlGaAs laser diode transmitter and low noise silicon avalanche photodiode (APD) photodetector. Comparison of measured performance with the theoretical revealed that modeling the APD output as a Gaussian process under conditions of negligible background radiation and low (less than 10 to the -12 power A) APD bulk leakage currents leads to substantial underestimates of optimal APD gain to use and overestimates of system bit error probability. A procedure is given to numerically compute system performance which uses the more accurate Webb's Approximation of the exact Conradi distribution for the APD ouput signal that does not require excessive amounts of computer time (a few minutes of VAX 8600 CPU time per system operating point). Examples are given which illustrate the breakdown of the Gaussian approximation in assessing system performance. This system achieved a bit error probability of 10 to the -6 power at a received signal energy corresponding to an average of 60 absorbed photons/bit and optimal APD gain of 700.

Davidson, F.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Autonomous power expert system advanced development

The autonomous power expert (APEX) system is being developed at Lewis Research Center to function as a fault diagnosis advisor for a space power distribution test bed. APEX is a rule-based system capable of detecting faults and isolating the probable causes. APEX also has a justification facility to provide natural language explanations about conclusions reached during fault isolation. To help maintain the health of the power distribution system, additional capabilities were added to APEX. These capabilities allow detection and isolation of incipient faults and enable the expert system to recommend actions/procedure to correct the suspected fault conditions. New capabilities for incipient fault detection consist of storage and analysis of historical data and new user interface displays. After the cause of a fault is determined, appropriate recommended actions are selected by rule-based inferencing which provides corrective/extended test procedures. Color graphics displays and improved mouse-selectable menus were also added to provide a friendlier user interface. A discussion of APEX in general and a more detailed description of the incipient detection, recommended actions, and user interface developments during the last year are presented.

Quinn, Todd M.↗
NASA NTRS1992

PDF turbulence modeling and DNS

The problem of time discontinuity (or jump condition) in the coalescence/dispersion (C/D) mixing model is addressed in probability density function (pdf). A C/D mixing model continuous in time is introduced. With the continuous mixing model, the process of chemical reaction can be fully coupled with mixing. In the case of homogeneous turbulence decay, the new model predicts a pdf very close to a Gaussian distribution, with finite higher moments also close to that of a Gaussian distribution. Results from the continuous mixing model are compared with both experimental data and numerical results from conventional C/D models. The effect of Coriolis forces on compressible homogeneous turbulence is studied using direct numerical simulation (DNS). The numerical method used in this study is an eight order compact difference scheme. Contrary to the conclusions reached by previous DNS studies on incompressible isotropic turbulence, the present results show that the Coriolis force increases the dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy, and that anisotropy develops as the Coriolis force increases. The Taylor-Proudman theory does apply since the derivatives in the direction of the rotation axis vanishes rapidly. A closer analysis reveals that the dissipation rate of the incompressible component of the turbulent kinetic energy indeed decreases with a higher rotation rate, consistent with incompressible flow simulations (Bardina), while the dissipation rate of the compressible part increases; the net gain is positive. Inertial waves are observed in the simulation results.

Hsu, A. T.↗
NASA NTRS2019

On the Maximum Expected Electric Field in Electrically Small, Undermoded Enclosures

This paper reports the experimental validation of an improved statistical model for the prediction of maximum expected electric field in electrically small and under-moded enclosures. The aerospace community is interested in application of Hill’s statistical models to design of avionics boxes for shielding effectiveness and for tailoring EMC test requirements for critical applications. However, it is observed that the probability distribution for mean-squared electric field (|E(sub x)|(exp 2)) in an electrically small enclosure differs from the exponential distribution which is widely used in reverberation chamber testing. It is postulated here that the difference is attributable to the under-moded character of the small enclosure. We will define “under-moded” as the condition where a single excitation frequency does not excite enough closely spaced resonant modes to achieve Hill’s assumption of an isotropic (or fully diffuse) plane wave field in the enclosure.

Bremner, P. G.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Gaussian approximation versus nearly exact performance analysis of optical communication systems with PPM signaling and APD receivers

A 25-Mb/s direct-detection optical communication system that used Q = 4 PPM (pulse-position modulation) signaling was constructed and its performance measured under laboratory conditions. The system used a single-mode AlGaAs laser diode (lambda = 834 nm) and low-noise silicon avalanche photodiode (APD). A procedure for numerically computing system performance is given that uses the nearly exact Webb approximation of the true Conradi distribution for the APD output and does not require excessive amounts of computer time. Comparison revealed that modeling the APD ouptut as a Gaussian process under conditions of negligible background radiation and low (less than 10 to the -12 A) APD bulk leakage currents leads to substantial underestimates of optimal APD gain and overestimates of system bit error probability. Examples illustrate the breakdown of the Gaussian approximation in assessing system performance. The measured performance was in excellent agreement with that predicted by the computational procedure. The system achieved a bit error probability of 10 to the -6 at a received signal energy, corresponding to an average of 60 absorbed photons/bit and optimal APD gain of 700.

Davidson, Frederic M.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Path integrals, complex probabilities and the discrete Weyl representation

Abstract A discrete formulation of the real-time path integral as the expectation value of a functional of paths with respect to a complex probability on a sample space of discrete valued paths is explored. The formulation in terms of complex probabilities is motivated by a recent reinterpretation of the real-time path integral as the expectation value of a potential functional with respect to a complex probability distribution on cylinder sets of paths. The discrete formulation in this work is based on a discrete version of the Weyl algebra that can be applied to any observable with a finite number of outcomes. The origin of the complex probability in this work is the completeness relation. In the discrete formulation the complex probability exactly factors into products of conditional probabilities and exact unitarity is maintained at each level of approximation. The approximation of infinite dimensional quantum systems by discrete systems is discussed. The method is illustrated by applying it to scattering theory and quantum field theory. The implications of these applications for quantum computing is discussed.

Physics↗
NASA NTRS1960

The Origin of Tektites

Tektites are probably extraterrestrial, rather than the result of heating some terrestrial materials, because they are a chemically homogeneous group with definite peculiarities (high silica, excess of alkaline earths over alkalis, excess of potash over soda, absence of water), and because some of them (the australites) appear to have undergone ablation in flight through the atmosphere. Since comparatively slow heating is required to explain the liquefaction of the tektite material, it is suggested that the tektites arrived along orbits which were nearly parallel to the surface of the earth, and which resulted from the decay of the orbit of a natural satellite. The great meteor procession of February 9, 1913, is an example of such an object. Comparison with the reentry phenomena of the artificial satellite 1957 Beta suggests that the 1913 shower consisted of a single large stone weighing about 400 kilograms, and a few dozen smaller bodies weighing about 40 grams each, formed by ablation from the larger body. It is shown that under the observed conditions considerable liquid flow would be expected in the stone, which would be heated to about 2100 K. Objects falling from such a shower near the perigee point of the orbit would have a considerable distribution along the orbit as a result of slight variations in height or drag coefficient. The distribution in longitude would be made wider by the turning of the earth under the orbit during the time of fall. The ultimate source of the body which produces a tektite shower is probably the moon, which appears, by virtue of its polarization and the phase distribution of the returned light, to contain high-silica materials. It is suggested that the Igast object alleged to have fallen in 1855 is in fact genuine and represents an unmelted portion of the lunar crust.

OKeefe, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Influence of meteorological conditions on aerosol vertical distribution and composition off the northeast American coastline

The size distribution and composition of lower tropospheric aerosols were measured off the northeast American coastline under clear air and disturbed meteorological conditions. Under the clear air conditions observed on 5 August 1982, with air flow from west to east, sulfate-rich stratified layers are the dominant feature of aerosol distribution in the lowest 3000 m of the troposphere. The encroachment of a warm frontal system over the study area on 9 August 1982 resulted in dramatic changes in aerosol distribution and composition prior to any precipitation, probably due to increased vertical mixing and dilution of pollutant aerosols. Chloride becomes the dominant water soluble anion in the lower 3000 m, primarily due to a several fold decrease in sulfate. Although these results are limited to only two sets of measurements, the data indicate the variability which can occur in the tropospheric vertical aerosol distributions at remote locations. A knowledge of the structure and stability of these stratified layers is of particular importance to studies of the ocean-troposphere chemistry problem.

Sebacher, D. I.↗
NASA NTRS2012

On the Ice Nucleation Spectrum

This work presents a novel formulation of the ice nucleation spectrum, i.e. the function relating the ice crystal concentration to cloud formation conditions and aerosol properties. The new formulation is physically-based and explicitly accounts for the dependency of the ice crystal concentration on temperature, supersaturation, cooling rate, and particle size, surface area and composition. This is achieved by introducing the concepts of ice nucleation coefficient (the number of ice germs present in a particle) and nucleation probability dispersion function (the distribution of ice nucleation coefficients within the aerosol population). The new formulation is used to generate ice nucleation parameterizations for the homogeneous freezing of cloud droplets and the heterogeneous deposition ice nucleation on dust and soot ice nuclei. For homogeneous freezing, it was found that by increasing the dispersion in the droplet volume distribution the fraction of supercooled droplets in the population increases. For heterogeneous ice nucleation the new formulation consistently describes singular and stochastic behavior within a single framework. Using a fundamentally stochastic approach, both cooling rate independence and constancy of the ice nucleation fraction over time, features typically associated with singular behavior, were reproduced. Analysis of the temporal dependency of the ice nucleation spectrum suggested that experimental methods that measure the ice nucleation fraction over few seconds would tend to underestimate the ice nuclei concentration. It is shown that inferring the aerosol heterogeneous ice nucleation properties from measurements of the onset supersaturation and temperature may carry significant error as the variability in ice nucleation properties within the aerosol population is not accounted for. This work provides a simple and rigorous ice nucleation framework where theoretical predictions, laboratory measurements and field campaign data can be reconciled, and that is suitable for application in atmospheric modeling studies.

Barahona, D.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Applications of Dynamic Land Surface Information for Passive Microwave Precipitation Retrieval

Accurate, physically based precipitation retrieval over global land surfaces is an important goal of the NASA/JAXA Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM). This is a difficult problem for the passive microwave constellation, as the signal over radiometrically warm land surfaces in the microwave frequencies means that the measurements used are indirect and typically require inferring some type of relationship between an observed scattering signal and precipitation at the surface. GPM, with collocated radiometer and dual-frequency radar, is an excellent tool for tackling this problem and improving global retrievals. In the years following the launch of the GPM Core Observatory satellite, physically based passive microwave retrieval of precipitation over land continues to be challenging. Validation efforts suggest that the operational GPM passive microwave algorithm, the Goddard profiling algorithm (GPROF), tends to overestimate precipitation at the low (<5 mm h−1) end of the distribution over land. In this work, retrieval sensitivities to dynamic surface conditions are explored through enhancement of the algorithm with dynamic, retrieved information from a GPM-derived optimal estimation scheme. The retrieved parameters describing surface and background characteristics replace current static or ancillary GPROF information including emissivity, water vapor, and snow cover. Results show that adding this information decreases probability of false detection by 50% and, most importantly, the enhancements with retrieved parameters move the retrieval away from dependence on ancillary datasets and lead to improved physical consistency.

Sarah Ringerud↗
NASA NTRS1988

Sampling the ancient volatile-rich areas of Mars

Viking images clearly show areas with a high density of fluidized craters that also display a significant number of wrinkle ridges. Fluidized crater ejecta morphology may indicate that the target material was rich in volatiles at the time of the impact. Therefore, these areas are of the utmost importance in deciphering both the Martian tectonic evolution and the amount of subsurface water, at times when more favorable conditions for life to evolve did exist on Mars. Although a large number of extensional features are associated with Tharsis and Elysium geologic activity, the planet-wide distribution of ridges suggests that Mars' tectonic history is far more complex than the Tharsis-dominated scenario indicates. Like on the Moon and Mercury, ridges on Mars were formed under compressive stresses, probably as a result of thrust-fault mechanism, although surface expressions and direct causes vary. Martian ridges are most easily seen on smooth plains of volcanic origin, but the majority of the 16,000 mapped and classified compressive features are located in the old terrains, far beyond Tharsis influence.

Chicarro, A. F.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Surveillance and Datalink Communication Performance Analysis for Distributed Separation Assurance System Architectures

This study investigates the effects of two technical enablers: Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast (ADS-B) and digital datalink communication, of the Federal Aviation Administration s Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) under two separation assurance (SA) system architectures: ground-based SA and airborne SA, on overall separation assurance performance. Datalink performance such as successful reception probability in both surveillance and communication messages, and surveillance accuracy are examined in various operational conditions. Required SA performance is evaluated as a function of subsystem performance, using availability, continuity, and integrity metrics to establish overall required separation assurance performance, under normal and off-nominal conditions.

Chung, William W.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulation-based inference for parameter estimation of complex watershed simulators

High-resolution, spatially distributed process-based (PB) simulators are widely employed in the study of complex catchment processes and their responses to a changing climate. However, calibrating these PB simulators using observed data remains a significant challenge due to several persistent issues, including the following: (1) intractability stemming from the computational demands and complex responses of simulators, which renders infeasible calculation of the conditional probability of parameters and data, and (2) uncertainty stemming from the choice of simplified representations of complex natural hydrologic processes. Here, we demonstrate how simulation-based inference (SBI) can help address both of these challenges with respect to parameter estimation. SBI uses a learned mapping between the parameter space and observed data to estimate parameters for the generation of calibrated simulations. To demonstrate the potential of SBI in hydrologic modeling, we conduct a set of synthetic experiments to infer two common physical parameters – Manning's coefficient and hydraulic conductivity – using a representation of a snowmelt-dominated catchment in Colorado, USA. We introduce novel deep-learning (DL) components to the SBI approach, including an “emulator” as a surrogate for the PB simulator to rapidly explore parameter responses. We also employ a density-based neural network to represent the joint probability of parameters and data without strong assumptions about its functional form. While addressing intractability, we also show that, if the simulator does not represent the system under study well enough, SBI can yield unreliable parameter estimates. Approaches to adopting the SBI framework for cases in which multiple simulator(s) may be adequate are introduced using a performance-weighting approach. The synthetic experiments presented here test the performance of SBI, using the relationship between the surrogate and PB simulators as a proxy for the real case.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1984

Ion cyclotron waves as a possible source of resonant auroral radar echoes

Some auroral radar Doppler data which show the presence of spectra not previously discussed are described. The data were obtained during highly distributed magnetic conditions with a relatively small 50 MHz radar pointed northeast of Ithaca, New York. The data are characterized by strong discrete echoes and display spectral peaks which are even narrower than type 1 and are centered at a considerably smaller Doppler shift. These echoes were present simultaneously with and adjacent in range to the commonly observed auroral spectra, and were probably obtained from a height of about 140 km or higher, well above the center of the auroral electrojet. The results are compared with existing electrojet instability theories, and other plasma instabilities which might be important are discussed. The Doppler shift suggests that the narrow spectra might be caused by ion cyclotron waves generated by field-aligned currents, but the observations cannot be fully explained by any of the theories.

Fejer, B. G.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Adaptive fault-tolerant routing in hypercube multicomputers

A connected hypercube with faulty links and/or nodes is called an injured hypercube. To enable any non-faulty node to communicate with any other non-faulty node, information on component failures has to be made available to non-faulty nodes so as to route messages around the faulty components. A distributed adaptive fault tolerant routing scheme is proposed in which each node is required to know only the condition of its own links. This scheme is shown to be capable of routing messages successfully as long as the number of faulty components is less than n (the dimension of the hypercube), and to route messages via shortest paths with a rather high probability. A second routing scheme based on depth-first search is proposed which works in the presence of an arbitrary number of faulty components; however, the paths chosen by this may not always be the shortest. To guarantee shortest paths, every mode must be given information beyond that on its own links; the additional information to be kept at each node for shortest-path routing is determined. Several examples are given to illustrate the results.

Chen, Ming-Syan↗
NASA NTRS2000

Processes Controlling Water Vapor in the Winter Arctic Stratospheric Middleworld

Abstract: Water vapor in the winter arctic stratospheric middleworld (that part of the stratosphere with potential temperatures lower than the tropical tropopause) is important for two reasons: (1) the arctic middleworld is a source of air for the upper troposphere because of the generally downward motion, and thus its water vapor content helps determine upper tropospheric water, a critical part of the earth's radiation budget; and (2) under appropriate conditions, relative humidities will be large even to the point of stratospheric cirrus cloud formation, leading to the production of active chlorine species that could destroy ozone. On a number of occasions during SOLVE, clouds were observed in the stratospheric middleworld by the DC-8 aircraft. The relationship between ozone and CO from aircraft measurements taken during the early, middle and late part of the winter of 1999-2000 show that recent mixing with tropospheric air extends up to ozone values of about 350-450 ppbv. Above that level, the relationship suggests stratospheric air with minimal tropospheric influence. The transition is quite abrupt, particularly in early spring. Trajectory analyses are consistent with these relationships, with a significant drop-off in the percentage of trajectories with tropospheric PV values in their 10-day history as in-situ ozone increases above 400 ppbv. The water distribution is affected by these mixing characteristics, and by cloud formation. Significant cloud formation along trajectories occurs up to ozone values of about 400 ppbv during the early spring, with small, but nonzero probabilities extending to 550 ppbv. Cloud formation in the stratospheric middleworld is minimal during early and midwinter. Also important is the fact that, during early spring 30% of the trajectories near the tropopause (ozone values less than 200 ppbv) have minimum saturation mixing ratios less than 5 ppmv. Such parcels can mix out into the troposphere and could lead to very dry conditions in the upper troposphere at high latitudes during spring,

Pfister, Leonhard↗
NASA NTRS1974

Biological modulation of the earth's atmosphere

Review of the evidence that the earth's atmosphere is regulated by life on the surface so that the probability of growth of the entire biosphere is maximized. Acidity, gas composition including oxygen level, and ambient temperature are enormously important determinants for the distribution of life. The earth's atmosphere deviates greatly from that of the other terrestrial planets in particular with respect to acidity, composition, redox potential and temperature history as predicted from solar luminosity. These deviations from predicted steady state conditions have apparently persisted over millions of years. These anomalies may be evidence for a complex planet-wide homeostasis that is the product of natural selection. Possible homeostatic mechanisms that may be further investigated by both theoretical and experimental methods are suggested.

Margulis, L.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Temperature distributions and thermal stresses in a graded zirconia/metal gas path seal system for aircraft gas turbine engines

A ceramic/metallic aircraft gas turbine outer gas path seal designed for improved engine performance was studied. Transient temperature and stress profiles in a test seal geometry were determined by numerical analysis. During a simulated engine deceleration cycle from sea-level takeoff to idle conditions, the maximum seal temperature occurred below the seal surface, therefore the top layer of the seal was probably subjected to tensile stresses exceeding the modulus of rupture. In the stress analysis both two- and three-dimensional finite element computer programs were used. Predicted trends of the simpler and more easily usable two-dimensional element programs were borne out by the three-dimensional finite element program results.

Taylor, C. M.↗