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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

SUNBIRD : a simulation-based model for full-shape density-split clustering

Combining galaxy clustering information from regions of different environmental densities can help break cosmological parameter degeneracies and access non-Gaussian information from the density field that is not readily captured by the standard two-point correlation function (2PCF) analyses. However, modelling these density-dependent statistics down to the non-linear regime has so far remained challenging. We present a simulation-based model that is able to capture the cosmological dependence of the full shape of the density-split clustering (DSC) statistics down to intra-halo scales. Our models are based on neural-network emulators that are trained on high-fidelity mock galaxy catalogues within an extended-ΛCDM framework, incorporating the effects of redshift-space, Alcock–Paczynski distortions, and models of the halo–galaxy connection. Our models reach sub-percent level accuracy down to $1 \, h^{-1}\text{Mpc}$ and are robust against different choices of galaxy–halo connection modelling. When combined with the galaxy 2PCF, DSC can tighten the constraints on ω cdm , σ 8 , and n s by factors of 2.9, 1.9, and 2.1, respectively, compared to a 2PCF-only analysis. DSC additionally puts strong constraints on environment-based assembly bias parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Anderson impurity mechanism for a multi-level model in δ-Pu

Abstract Electronic correlations and spin–orbit interactions in plutonium create variations in the bonding behavior of each of its allotropes. In δ -Pu, the 5f electrons lie at the tipping point between itinerant and localized behavior which has made the use of mixed-level models successful in describing its mechanical properties. The mechanism for the emergence of a mixed-level model has not yet been understood. We use a series of density functional theory approximations to understand the interactions that create a mixed-level description of δ -Pu which leads to accurate physical properties. With the intersite interactions present in the hybrid functional, we show that a single 5f electron engages in orbital-selective bonding that can be understood with an Anderson impurity picture. The Anderson model gives us a mechanism to understand how the bonding in δ -Pu evolves as a function of the interactions in the material such that we obtain both the accuracy and physics of the multi-level models from ab initio theory.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2026

Clustering of high-redshift quasars with DESI DR2

We present clustering measurements for high-redshift quasars using data from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Data Release 2. Our sample consists of quasars with $2.0 < z < 3.5$ in the luminosity range $M_{1450} \leq -19.94$ mag. We measure the mean quasar bias $b_Q(\bar{z} = 2.48) = 3.61 \pm 0.01$ for the full sample of $\sim 715,000$ quasars and quantify the redshift evolution of quasar bias by dividing the sample into four equal redshift bins. There is strong evolution of the quasar bias with redshift that is well fit by the function $b_Q(z) = a [(1 + z)^2 - 6.565] + b$ with $a=0.230 \pm 0.007$ and $b=2.394 \pm 0.035$, and this fit is also a good match to lower redshift measurements in the literature. This bias evolution is consistent with a characteristic halo mass of $\bar{M}_{\mathrm{h}} \sim 10^{12}\,\mathrm{M_\odot}$ that does not vary significantly with redshift. The inferred duty cycles for quasars in our sample are $f_{\mathrm{duty}} \sim 10^{-2}$, staying mostly constant over redshifts. We investigate the luminosity dependence of quasar clustering by dividing each of our four redshift bins into three luminosity bins. The size of our quasar sample permits the first statistically significant measurement of the luminosity dependence of quasar bias at these redshifts. We measure weak dependence of quasar bias on luminosity at fixed redshift, inconsistent with no dependence, but weaker than predicted by a model in which quasar luminosity is tightly correlated with halo mass. These clustering measurements provide a stringent test for models of active black hole light curves and the black hole-halo connection at high redshift.

Charles, M. [Ohio State U.; Chicago U., KICP] (ORC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Deployment of Traditional and Hybrid Machine Learning for Critical Heat Flux Prediction in the CTF Thermal-Hydraulics Code

Critical heat flux (CHF) marks the transition from nucleate to film boiling, where heat transfer to the working fluid can rapidly deteriorate. Accurate CHF prediction is essential for efficiency, safety, and preventing equipment damage, particularly in nuclear reactors. Although widely used, empirical correlations frequently exhibit discrepancies when compared to experimental data, limiting their reliability in diverse operational conditions. Traditional machine learning (ML) approaches have demonstrated potential for CHF prediction but often suffer from limited interpretability, data scarcity, and insufficient knowledge of physical principles. Hybrid model approaches, which combine data-driven ML with base models, mitigate these concerns by incorporating prior knowledge of the domain. This study integrates an externally trained purely data-driven ML model and two hybrid models (using the Biasi and Bowring CHF correlations) within the CTF subchannel code via a custom Fortran framework. Performance was evaluated using two validation cases: a subset of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) CHF database and the Bennett dryout experiments. In both cases, the hybrid models demonstrated significantly lower error metrics compared to conventional empirical correlations, with the best models often reducing relative error by about 5 percentage points. The pure ML model achieved comparable accuracy, outperforming the hybrid Biasi model in the NRC test case (3.3% versus 5.5% relative error) but exhibiting slightly higher error against the hybrid Bowring model in the Bennett test case (7.7% versus 6.1%). Trend analysis of error parity indicated that ML-based models reduced the tendency for CHF overprediction, improving overall accuracy. These results demonstrate that ML-based CHF models can be effectively integrated into subchannel codes and could potentially increase performance compared to conventional methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermal Hydraulics Analysis of a Divertor Monoblock Using SALAMANDER

Divertors are critical components in magnetic confinement fusion devices. One of the Divertor's crictial roles is absorbing the highest heat flux from the plasma. The Divertor accomplishes this through the use of divertor monoblocks and cooling channels. This work presents a thermal hydraulic analysis of a divertor monoblock using the Software for Advanced Large-scale Analysis of MAgnetic confinement for Numerical Design, Engineering and Research (SALAMANDER). SALAMANDER is an open source tool developed at Idaho National Laboratory for conducting multiphysics and multscale analysis of Plasma Facing Components (PFCs). For the monoblock, solid heat conduction is modeled in the block with a constant heat flux of 1E7 W/m^2 applied to the top of the block to represent peak heat flux from the plasma. The cooling channel (which is pressurized water at a Reynolds number of ~1,000,000) is modeled using a k-epsilon turbulence model with standard wall functions. The heat transfer between the solid and fluid domain is modeled using the Dittus-Boelter correlation for the convective heat transfer coefficient. This work aims to show the importance of a multiphysics modeling approach when performing simulations on PFCs.

70 - PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

A New Theoretical Framework for Parameterizing Nonequilibrium Fractionation During Evaporation From the Ocean

The evaporation model for water isotopes proposed by Craig and Gordon (1965, https://books.google.co.in/books?id=6wIKAQAAIAAJ) is used in most isotope-enabled atmospheric models for the parameterization of nonequilibrium fractionation during evaporation from the ocean. In this model, one of the most uncertain parameters is the nonequilibrium fractionation factor 𝛼 𝑘 . Many isotope models use the formulation of Merlivat and Jouzel (1979, https://doi.org/10.1029/jc084ic08p05029), which parameterizes 𝛼 𝑘 as a function of wind speed and distinguishes between a smooth and a rough regime to account for the effect of ocean waves. The resulting discontinuity in 𝛼 𝑘 between smooth and rough regimes has been disputed by several empirical studies. Here, we present a new approach to parameterizing 𝛼𝑘 by explicitly accounting for the influence of wave drag on the momentum flux near the surface. Following Cifuentes-Lorenzen et al. (2018, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10546-018-0376-0), we add a third wave-induced component to the total momentum flux, in addition to the viscous and turbulent components, and extend the definition of the eddy viscosity to account for the momentum flux due to waves and turbulent dissipation near the surface. The new scheme predicts a slight decrease of 𝛼 𝑘 with wind speed, similar to the smooth-regime parameterization of Merlivat and Jouzel (1979, https://doi.org/10.1029/jc084ic08p05029). This new parameterization is incorporated into the isotope-enabled Community Atmosphere Model, where it improves the correlation of simulated and measured vapor deuterium excess relative to the default version and a version with constant 𝛼 𝑘 , suggesting that it may be used as a valid representation of fractionation during evaporation from the ocean in future isotope models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bounded-Confidence Models of Multidimensional Opinions with Topic-Weighted Discordance

People’s opinions on a wide range of topics often evolve over time through their interactions with others. Models of opinion dynamics primarily focus on one-dimensional opinions, which represent opinions on one topic. However, opinions on various topics are rarely isolated; instead, they can be interdependent and correlated. In a bounded-confidence model (BCM) of opinion dynamics, agents are receptive to each other only if their opinions are sufficiently similar. Here, we extend classical agent-based BCMs—namely, the Hegselmann–Krause BCM, which has synchronous interactions, and the Deffuant–Weisbuch BCM, which has asynchronous interactions—to a multidimensional setting, in which the opinions are multidimensional vectors representing opinions of different topics and opinions on different topics are interdependent. To measure opinion differences between agents, we introduce topic-weighted discordance functions that account for opinion differences in all topics. We define regions of receptiveness for our models, and we use them to characterize the steady-state opinion clusters and provide an analytical approach to compute these regions. In addition, we numerically simulate our models on various networks with initial opinions drawn from a variety of distributions. When initial opinions are correlated across different topics, our topic-weighted BCMs yield significantly different results in both transient and steady states compared to baseline models, where the dynamics of each opinion topic are independent.

Mathematics and Computing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improving the modeling of near-wall interphase heat transfer in porous media models of Pebble Bed Reactors

Here, this work aims to improve capabilities for modeling localized effects in porous media models of Pebble Bed Reactors. The wall-channeling effect is the primary local phenomenon of interest in a PBR, where the presence of the reflector wall disrupts the pebble packing, causing the pebbles near the wall to pack less efficiently and creating large void regions. Accurate modeling of the near-wall region is important as it will affect core bypass flow and temperature predictions. Porous media models are commonly used for design scoping and plant-level simulations of PBRs. Although these models have some capabilities to model the near-wall region, the correlations that are available in porous media codes are often inaccurate when a multi-region model is used to discretize the near-wall region. This work employs a high-to-low analysis to study the accuracy of available interphase heat transfer closures. NekRS, a spectral element computational fluid dynamics code, is used to perform Large Eddy Simulations. These LES simulation results are compared to porous media model results from the Pronghorn porous media code. The friction term of the KTA drag closure is first improved, reducing the error in the prediction of the near-wall velocity from over 50% to less than 5%. This is combined with improvements to the form term from previous works to produce a drag closure that is capable of accurately modeling the wall-channeling effect across a variety of flow conditions. The Nusselt number predictions of several heat transfer correlations are compared to the high-fidelity results where it is found that the KTA heat transfer correlation is capable of accurately predicting the local Nusselt numbers that were determined in the high-fidelity simulation. Comparison of the radial solid temperature profiles, however, reveal discrepancies between NekRS and Pronghorn. It is discovered that the implementation of the interphase heat transfer coefficient that exists in many current porous media codes is not valid when local porosities are modeled. Instead, it is suggested that the interphase heat transfer coefficient should be dependent on the local porosity, the Nusselt number, and the local solid surface-to-volume ratio. Implementation of this change produces improvement in the agreement between the results obtained by NekRS and Pronghorn while using the KTA heat transfer correlation.

interphase heat transfer↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for FUN-PROSE: A Deep Learning Approach to Predict Condition-Specific Gene Expression in Fungi

mRNA levels of all genes in a genome is a critical piece of information defining the overall state of the cell in a given environmental condition. Being able to reconstruct such condition-specific expression in fungal genomes is particularly important to metabolically engineer these organisms to produce desired chemicals in industrially scalable conditions. Most previous deep learning approaches focused on predicting the average expression levels of a gene based on its promoter sequence, ignoring its variation across different conditions. Here we present FUN-PROSE—a deep learning model trained to predict differential expression of individual genes across various conditions using their promoter sequences and expression levels of all transcription factors. We train and test our model on three fungal species and get the correlation between predicted and observed condition-specific gene expression as high as 0.85. We then interpret our model to extract promoter sequence motifs responsible for variable expression of individual genes. We also carried out input feature importance analysis to connect individual transcription factors to their gene targets. A sizeable fraction of both sequence motifs and TF-gene interactions learned by our model agree with previously known biological information, while the rest corresponds to either novel biological facts or indirect correlations.

Genomics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing the impact of design factors on solar module thermomechanical durability using interpretable machine learning techniques

Solar modules in utility-scale systems are expected to maintain decades of lifetime to rival conventional energy sources. However, cyclic thermomechanical loading often degrades their long-term performance, highlighting the importance of effective design to mitigate thermal expansion mismatches between module materials. Given the complex composition of solar modules, isolating the impact of individual components on overall durability remains a challenging task. In this work, we analyze a comprehensive data set that comprises bill-of-materials (BOM) and thermal cycling power loss from 251 distinct module designs to identify the predominant design factors and their impacts on the thermomechanical durability of modules. The methodology of our analysis combines machine learning modeling (random forest) and Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) to correlate design factors with power loss and interpret the model’s decision-making. The interpretation reveals that silicon type (monocrystalline or polycrystalline), encapsulant thickness, busbar numbers, and wafer thickness predominantly influence the degradation. With lower power loss of around 0.6% on average in the SHAP analysis, monocrystalline cells present better durability than polycrystalline cells. This finding is further substantiated by statistical testing on our raw data set. The SHAP analysis also demonstrates that while thicker encapsulants lead to reduced power loss, further increasing their thickness over around 0.6 to 0.7 mm does not yield additional benefits, particularly for the front side one. In addition, other important BOM features such as the number of busbars are analyzed. This study provides a blueprint for utilizing explainable machine learning techniques in a complex material system and can potentially guide future research on optimizing the design of solar modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Role of Defect Geometry in Localized Emission from Monolayer Tungsten Dichalcogenides

In two-dimensional transition metal dichalcogenides such as tungsten diselenide (WSe 2 ), single photon emission has been broadly attributed to exciton localization from atomic point defects, yet the precise microscopic origins are unclear. This work introduces an empirically grounded computational framework that explains the origins of facile single photon emission in WSe 2 . High-resolution microscopy identifies native defect geometries in monolayer WSe 2 lattices from which the model is built. Here, the qualitative effects of chalcogen type, defect geometry, and mechanical strain on the electronic structure are individually assessed using density functional theory, and a specific divacancy configuration emerges as the candidate for localized single-electron transitions that match observed spectral energies. Spectroscopy and photon correlation measurements further validate this model, establishing a self-consistent link between defect geometry, electronic structure, and quantum emission.

defect emission↗
DOE OSTI2026

A procedure for rule extraction from a Self-Organising plasma disruption predictor for JET

In a previous paper, a Self-Organizing Map had proven to be able to identify the regions of the plasma operative space characterizing the pre-disruptive phase at JET without relying on any a priori information. One of the strengths of this disruption predictor lies in its inherent self-organization capability. The Self-Organizing Map discovers non-trivial relationships and captures the complicated interplay of device diagnostics on the internal plasma states directly from the experimental data. Moreover, the provided model allows the visualization of high-dimensional plasma parameters and facilitates easy interrogation of the model to understand the reasons behind its correlations. In this paper, an additional step is taken towards the interpretability of models for predicting disruptions by training a Decision Tree to classify the plasma states according to the interpretation provided by the Self-Organizing Map (stable or at high risk of disruptions). The Decision tree provides a set of rules which describe the transition of the plasma towards the pre-disruptive phase as visualized in the Self-Organizing Map. The obtained rules for the database explored in the study identify four regions in the map, two of which are at risk of disruption. These regions correspond to partitions of a 3D space based on the peaking factors of the core and divertor radiation, as well as the Locked Mode. The agreement between the Self-Organizing Map answers and the rules supplied by the Decision Tree is confirmed by the comparison of the performance exhibited by the two models in the prediction of disruptions.

Setzu, Samuele [Univ. of Cagliari, Monserrato, Cag↗
DOE OSTI2026

Performance evaluation of CMIP6 models on the Arctic-Siberian Plain teleconnection affecting the East Asian heat waves

The frequency and intensity of summer heat waves in East Asia have increased sharply in recent decades, significantly impacting public health and the economy. The Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP) teleconnection pattern has been identified as a key driver, with ASP warming amplifying atmospheric circulation patterns conducive to extreme temperatures. This study evaluates the ability of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 models to simulate the ASP pattern across interannual variability (IAV) and intra-seasonal variability (ISV) timescales using the Common Basis Function method. The multi-model mean shows statistically significant pattern correlations with ERA5 reanalysis, with correlation coefficients of 0.90 and 0.99 for IAV and ISV, respectively. While the ASP pattern is generally well captured, models exhibit substantial inter-model diversity in the intensity and position of anticyclonic anomalies over the ASP and East Asia. Models with ASP pattern variability similar to reanalysis better reproduce extreme East Asian temperatures, whereas those over- or underestimating ASP variability exhibit lower skill. These performance differences are related to differences in simulating key variables associated with the development of the ASP pattern. Our findings highlight the role of the ASP pattern in modulating extreme heat events, as models with improved ASP simulations align more closely with observed temperature extremes. Refining ASP representations in models could enhance seasonal heat wave predictions, improving climate adaptation strategies.

Arctic-Siberian Plain (ASP)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Experimental Investigation of Vapor Formation in Liquid CO2 Flow Through a Converging-Diverging Nozzle

Carbon dioxide is an attractive working fluid for many cycles, including for pumped thermal energy storage (PTES). A challenge with some proposed sCO2 PTES cycles is the operation of sCO2 machinery outside the typical bounds of experience, with local phase change from the liquid state being particularly unknown. Presently, there is insufficient data in the literature regarding multiphase CO2 to adequately design a multiphase-tolerant turbine, so generation of foundational data is required. This experimental study investigates the flow characteristics of sub-sonic liquid CO2 undergoing expansion and phase change in a converging-diverging nozzle. The nozzle is instrumented to measure static pressure, unsteady pressure, temperature, and density. The static pressure transducers are located at 27 axial locations to accurately characterize the pressure profile in the nozzle. High-accuracy RTDs are located at the entrance and exit of the nozzle, and three dynamic pressure transducers are strategically located to capture any unsteady phenomena. During testing, values of mass flow and nozzle inlet pressure are swept to vary the pressure drop and fluid properties. The measured total pressure drop in the nozzle is compared to a homogenous model and the Lockhart-Martinelli correlation method, with the latter predicting loss quite closely. The resulting data set is valuable for validating multiphase numerical models in a simple geometry before implementation of these models in turbomachinery design.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Pyridine Catalysis of Anhydride Hydrolysis within Carbodiimide‐Driven Reaction Networks

Carbodiimide-fueled reaction networks offer a versatile platform for nonequilibrium chemical systems. Typically, the carbodiimide converts a carboxylic acid to its anhydride, called “activation,” which subsequently undergoes hydrolysis, called “deactivation.” Here, we investigate pyridines with variable nucleophilicity as catalysts to control deactivation (pyridine, 4-methylpyridine, 4-methoxypyridine, and 4-dimethylaminopyridine). Reactions have been monitored by NMR spectroscopy. Although this reaction network is simple, determination of well-defined rate constants from kinetic modeling is challenging because of correlation between the parameters. This issue can be addressed by analyzing the anhydride hydrolysis independently. The rate of attack of the pyridines on the anhydride follows expected nucleophilicity trends, although this is offset by increased protonation of more-nucleophilic pyridines at typical pH's. The optimized parameters can be used to model the full carbodiimide-driven process, although the presence of the common carbodiimide EDC has unanticipated effects on the anhydride hydrolysis rate. The results offer context for controlling carbodiimide-fueled reaction networks through the choice of suitable catalysts and pH.

Anhydrides↗
DOE OSTI2025

IceCube Search for Neutrino Emission from X-Ray Bright Seyfert Galaxies

The recent IceCube detection of TeV neutrino emission from the nearby active galaxy NGC 1068 suggests that active galactic nuclei (AGNs) could make a sizable contribution to the diffuse flux of astrophysical neutrinos. The absence of TeV γ-rays from NGC 1068 indicates neutrino production in the vicinity of the supermassive black hole, where the high radiation density leads to γ-ray attenuation. Therefore, any potential neutrino emission from similar sources is not expected to correlate with high-energy γ-rays. Disk-corona models predict neutrino emission from Seyfert galaxies to correlate with keV X-rays because they are tracers of coronal activity. Using through-going track events from the Northern Sky recorded by IceCube between 2011 and 2021, we report results from a search for individual and aggregated neutrino signals from 27 additional Seyfert galaxies that are contained in the Swift's Burst Alert Telescope AGN Spectroscopic Survey. Besides the generic single power law, we evaluate the spectra predicted by the disk-corona model assuming stochastic acceleration parameters that match the measured flux from NGC 1068. Assuming all sources to be intrinsically similar to NGC 1068, our findings constrain the collective neutrino emission from X-ray bright Seyfert galaxies in the northern sky, but, at the same time, show excesses of neutrinos that could be associated with the objects NGC 4151 and CGCG 420-015. These excesses result in a 2.7σ significance with respect to background expectations.

Abbasi, R. [Loyola University, Chicago, IL (United↗
DOE OSTI2024

Kernel polynomial method for linear spin wave theory

Calculating dynamical spin correlations is essential for matching model magnetic exchange Hamiltonians to momentum-resolved spectroscopic measurements. A major numerical bottleneck is the diagonalization of the dynamical matrix, especially in systems with large magnetic unit cells, such as those with incommensurate magnetic structures or quenched disorder. In this paper, we demonstrate an efficient scheme based on the kernel polynomial method for calculating dynamical correlations of relevance to inelastic neutron scattering experiments. This method reduces the scaling of numerical cost from cubic to linear in the magnetic unit cell size.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Driven State of Health Estimation for Second-Life Batteries Using Interpolated Synthetic Data and Feature Selection

Accurate estimation of the State of Health (SOH) for second-life batteries (SLBs) is crucial given their increasing use in energy storage applications. Precise SOH prediction is essential for safe operation and robust battery management systems. A major challenge is the limited availability of datasets for building reliable degradation models. To address this, synthetic data generation through linear interpolation is performed to extend the available data, making it more representative of real-world battery operating conditions. By analyzing feature correlation with SOH, the most relevant features are selected for the model. The proposed approach employs a convolutional neural network (CNN) model trained on this interpolated, feature-selected dataset, using time series data of voltage, temperature, and current over a cycle. By focusing on highly correlated features, the model achieves over 95% accuracy, with mean absolute error and root mean squared error up to 2.27% and 2.64%, respectively, in SOH estimation for two battery datasets tested. These results highlight the potential of combining synthetic data generation and feature selection to enhance SOH predictions, showcasing the superior performance of the proposed CNN model for both new batteries and SLBs.

feature selection↗