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DOE OSTI2025

The Three Hundred Project: Modeling baryon and hot-gas fraction evolution in simulated clusters

The baryon fraction of galaxy clusters, expressed as the ratio between the mass in baryons (including both stars and cold or hot gas) and the total mass, is a powerful tool to provide information on the cosmological parameters, while the hot-gas fraction provides indications on the physics of the intracluster plasma and its interplay with the processes that drive galaxy formation. Using cosmological hydrodynamical simulations of about 300 simulated massive galaxy clusters with a median mass M 500 ≈ 7 × 10 14 M ⊙ at z = 0, we model the relations between total mass and either baryon fraction or the hot gas fractions at overdensities Δ = 2500, 500, and 200 with respect to the cosmic critical density, and their evolution from z ∼ 0 to z ∼ 1.3. We utilized the simulated galaxy clusters from the Three Hundred project, which include star formation and feedback from both supernovae and active galactic nuclei. We fit the simulation results for such scaling relations against three analytic forms (linear, quadratic, and logarithmic in a logarithmic plane) and three forms for the redshift dependence, and we considered as a variable both the inverse of the cosmic scale factor, (1 + z), and the Hubble expansion rate, E(z). We show that power-law dependencies on cluster mass poorly describe the investigated relations. A power law fails to simultaneously capture the flattening of the total baryon and gas fractions at high masses, their drop at low masses, and the transition between these two regimes. The other two functional forms provide a more accurate description of the curvature in mass scaling. The fractions measured within smaller radii exhibit a stronger evolution than those measured within larger radii. From the analysis of these simulations, we evince that as long as we include systems in the mass range herein investigated, the baryon or gas fraction can be accurately related to the total mass through either a parabola or a logarithm in the logarithmic plane. The trends are common to all modern hydro simulations, although the amplitude of the drop at low masses might differ. Being able to observationally determine the gas fraction in groups will thus provide constraints on the baryonic physics.

galaxy clusters↗

DOE OSTI2024

Impact of survey spatial variability on galaxy redshift distributions and the cosmological 3 × 2-point statistics for the Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST)

We investigate the impact of spatial survey non-uniformity on the galaxy redshift distributions for forthcoming data releases of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). Specifically, we construct a mock photometry data set degraded by the Rubin OpSim observing conditions, and estimate photometric redshifts of the sample using a template-fitting photo-z estimator, BPZ, and a machine learning method, FlexZBoost. We select the Gold sample, defined as $i\lt 25.3$ for 10 yr LSST data, with an adjusted magnitude cut for each year and divide it into five tomographic redshift bins for the weak lensing lens and source samples. We quantify the change in the number of objects, mean redshift, and width of each tomographic bin as a function of the coadd i-band depth for 1-yr (Y1), 3-yr (Y3), and 5-yr (Y5) data. In particular, Y3 and Y5 have large non-uniformity due to the rolling cadence of LSST, hence provide a worst-case scenario of the impact from non-uniformity. We find that these quantities typically increase with depth, and the variation can be $10\!-\!40~{{\rm per\ cent}}$ at extreme depth values. Using Y3 as an example, we propagate the variable depth effect to the weak lensing $3\times 2$ pt analysis, and assess the impact on cosmological parameters via a Fisher forecast. We find that galaxy clustering is most susceptible to variable depth, and non-uniformity needs to be mitigated below 3 per cent to recover unbiased cosmological constraints. There is little impact on galaxy–shear and shear–shear power spectra, given the expected LSST Y3 noise.

cosmology↗

DOE OSTI2024

The SRG/eROSITA All-Sky Survey: Dark Energy Survey year 3 weak gravitational lensing by eRASS1 selected galaxy clusters

Context. Number counts of galaxy clusters across redshift are a powerful cosmological probe if a precise and accurate reconstruction of the underlying mass distribution is performed – a challenge called mass calibration. With the advent of wide and deep photometric surveys, weak gravitational lensing (WL) by clusters has become the method of choice for this measurement. Aims. We measured and validated the WL signature in the shape of galaxies observed in the first three years of the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3) caused by galaxy clusters and groups selected in the first all-sky survey performed by SRG (Spectrum Roentgen Gamma)/eROSITA (eRASS1). These data were then used to determine the scaling between the X-ray photon count rate of the clusters and their halo mass and redshift. Methods. We empirically determined the degree of cluster member contamination in our background source sample. The individual cluster shear profiles were then analyzed with a Bayesian population model that self-consistently accounts for the lens sample selection and contamination and includes marginalization over a host of instrumental and astrophysical systematics. To quantify the accuracy of the mass extraction of that model, we performed mass measurements on mock cluster catalogs with realistic synthetic shear profiles. This allowed us to establish that hydrodynamical modeling uncertainties at low lens redshifts (z < 0.6) are the dominant systematic limitation. At high lens redshift, the uncertainties of the sources’ photometric redshift calibration dominate. Results. With regard to the X-ray count rate to halo mass relation, we determined its amplitude, its mass trend, the redshift evolution of the mass trend, the deviation from self-similar redshift evolution, and the intrinsic scatter around this relation. Conclusions. The mass calibration analysis performed here sets the stage for a joint analysis with the number counts of eRASS1 clusters to constrain a host of cosmological parameters. We demonstrate that WL mass calibration of galaxy clusters can be performed successfully with source galaxies whose calibration was performed primarily for cosmic shear experiments, opening the way for the cluster cosmological exploitation of future optical and NIR surveys like Euclid and LSST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exploring the growth index γ L : Insights from different CMB dataset combinations and approaches

In this study we investigate the growth index γ L , which characterizes the growth of linear matter perturbations, while analysing different cosmological datasets. We compare the approaches implemented by two different patches of the cosmological solver : and __. In our analysis we uncover a deviation of the growth index from its expected Λ CDM value of 0.55 when utilizing the Planck dataset, both in the case and in the __ case, but in opposite directions. This deviation is accompanied by a change in the direction of correlations with derived cosmological parameters. However, the incorporation of cosmic microwave background lensing data helps reconcile γ L with its Λ -cold dark matter value in both cases. Conversely, the alternative ground-based telescopes Atacama Cosmology Telescope and South Pole Telescope consistently yield growth index values in agreement with γ L = 0.55 . We conclude that the presence of the A lens problem in the Planck dataset contributes to the observed deviations, underscoring the importance of additional datasets in resolving these discrepancies. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Calibration and Commissioning of the LSST

Understanding the nature of dark energy and dark matter remains one of the fundamental questions in physics today; impacting our understanding of particle physics, cosmology, and possibly theories of gravity. Given the scale and complexity of the next generation of cosmology experiments (e.g., the Rubin Observatory, the Euclid satellite mission, and the Roman space telescope) we are entering an era where statistical noise no longer determines the accuracy to which we can measure cosmological parameters. Our ability to control and correct for systematics will ultimately determine the scientific impact of these experiments. This award addressed the challenge of how we determine what limits the accuracy of our cosmological measures, what techniques are appropriate for measuring and calibrating the properties of galaxies to best constrain cosmological models, how to develop statistical techniques that are insensitive to systematic errors, and how to optimize survey strategies in order to minimize systematics while maximizing the speed at which an experiment can achieve its science objectives. In this final technical report for award DE-SC0011635 we describe a set of open-source frameworks that simulate the characteristics and properties of current and planned cosmology surveys and the application of these frameworks to the development of new methodologies for estimating the properties and distances to galaxies that are robust to noisy and incomplete data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Mitigating the optical depth degeneracy using the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect with CMB-S4 data

The epoch of reionization is one of the major phase transitions in the history of the universe, and is a focus of ongoing and upcoming cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments with improved sensitivity to small-scale fluctuations. Reionization also represents a significant contaminant to CMB-derived cosmological parameter constraints, due to the degeneracy between the Thomson-scattering optical depth, $\tau$, and the amplitude of scalar perturbations, $A_s$. This degeneracy subsequently hinders the ability of large-scale structure data to constrain the sum of the neutrino masses, a major target for cosmology in the 2020s. In this work, we explore the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect as a probe of reionization, and show that it can be used to mitigate the optical depth degeneracy with high-sensitivity, high-resolution data from the upcoming CMB-S4 experiment. We discuss the dependence of the kSZ power spectrum on physical reionization model parameters, as well as on empirical reionization parameters, namely $\tau$ and the duration of reionization, $\Delta z$. We show that by combining the kSZ two-point function and the reconstructed kSZ four-point function, degeneracies between $\tau$ and $\Delta z$ can be strongly broken, yielding tight constraints on both parameters. We forecast $\sigma(\tau) = 0.003$ and $\sigma(\Delta z) = 0.25$ for a combination of CMB-S4 and Planck data, including detailed treatment of foregrounds and atmospheric noise. The constraint on $\tau$ is nearly identical to the cosmic-variance limit that can be achieved from large-angle CMB polarization data. The kSZ effect thus promises to yield not only detailed information about the reionization epoch, but also to enable high-precision cosmological constraints on the neutrino mass.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Debiasing with Diffusion: Probabilistic Reconstruction of Dark Matter Fields from Galaxies with CAMELS

Abstract Galaxies are biased tracers of the underlying cosmic web, which is dominated by dark matter (DM) components that cannot be directly observed. Galaxy formation simulations can be used to study the relationship between DM density fields and galaxy distributions. However, this relationship can be sensitive to assumptions in cosmology and astrophysical processes embedded in galaxy formation models, which remain uncertain in many aspects. In this work, we develop a diffusion generative model to reconstruct DM fields from galaxies. The diffusion model is trained on the CAMELS simulation suite that contains thousands of state-of-the-art galaxy formation simulations with varying cosmological parameters and subgrid astrophysics. We demonstrate that the diffusion model can predict the unbiased posterior distribution of the underlying DM fields from the given stellar density fields while being able to marginalize over uncertainties in cosmological and astrophysical models. Interestingly, the model generalizes to simulation volumes ≈500 times larger than those it was trained on and across different galaxy formation models. The code for reproducing these results can be found athttps://github.com/victoriaono/variational-diffusion-cdm✎.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Do LIGO/Virgo Black Hole Mergers Produce AGN Flares? The Case of GW190521 and Prospects for Reaching a Confident Association

The recent report of an association of the gravitational-wave (GW) binary black hole (BBH) merger GW190521 with a flare in the active galactic nuclei (AGNs) J124942.3 + 344929 has generated tremendous excitement. However, GW190521 has one of the largest localization volumes among all of the GW events detected so far. The 90% localization volume likely contains 7400 unobscured AGNs brighter than g ≤ 20.5 AB mag, and it results in a ≳70% probability of chance coincidence for an AGN flare consistent with the GW event. We present a Bayesian formalism to estimate the confidence of an AGN association by analyzing a population of BBH events with dedicated follow-up observations. Depending on the fraction of BBHs arising from AGNs, counterpart searches of $\mathcal{O}(1) - \mathcal{O}(100)$ GW events are needed to establish a confident association, and more than an order of magnitude more for searches without follow-up (i.e., using only the locations of AGN and GW events). Follow-up campaigns of the top ~5% (based on volume localization and binary mass) of BBH events with total rest-frame mass ≥50 M ⊙ are expected to establish a confident association during the next LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing run (O4), as long as the true value of the fraction of BBHs giving rise to AGN flares is >0.1. Our formalism allows us to jointly infer cosmological parameters from a sample of BBH events that include chance coincidence flares. Until the confidence of AGN associations is established, the probability of chance coincidence must be taken into account to avoid biasing astrophysical and cosmological constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Parameter-masked Mock Data Challenge for Beyond-two-point Galaxy Clustering Statistics

The past few years have seen the emergence of a wide array of novel techniques for analyzing high-precision data from upcoming galaxy surveys, which aim to extend the statistical analysis of galaxy clustering data beyond the linear regime and the canonical two-point (2pt) statistics. We test and benchmark some of these new techniques in a community data challenge named “Beyond-2pt,” initiated during the Aspen 2022 Summer Program “Large-Scale Structure Cosmology beyond 2-Point Statistics,” whose first round of results we present here. The challenge data set consists of high-precision mock galaxy catalogs for clustering in real space, in redshift space, and on a light cone. Participants in the challenge have developed end-to-end pipelines to analyze mock catalogs and extract unknown (“masked”) cosmological parameters of the underlying ΛCDM models with their methods. The methods represented are density-split clustering, nearest neighbor statistics, BACCO power spectrum emulator, void statistics, LEFTfield field-level inference using effective field theory (EFT), and joint power spectrum and bispectrum analyses using both EFT and simulation-based inference. In this work, we review the results of the challenge, focusing on problems solved, lessons learned, and future research needed to perfect the emerging beyond-2pt approaches. The unbiased parameter recovery demonstrated in this challenge by multiple statistics and the associated modeling and inference frameworks supports the credibility of cosmology constraints from these methods. The challenge data set is publicly available, and we welcome future submissions from methods that are not yet represented.

Krause, Elisabeth [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (U↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cosmology with persistent homology: a Fisher forecast

Abstract Persistent homology naturally addresses the multi-scale topological characteristics of the large-scale structure as a distribution of clusters, loops, and voids. We apply this tool to the dark matter halo catalogs from theQuijotesimulations, and build a summary statistic for comparison with the joint power spectrum and bispectrum statistic regarding their information content on cosmological parameters and primordial non-Gaussianity. Through a Fisher analysis, we find that constraints from persistent homology are tighter for 8 out of the 10 parameters by margins of 13–50%. The complementarity of the two statistics breaks parameter degeneracies, allowing for a further gain in constraining power when combined. We run a series of consistency checks to consolidate our results, and conclude that our findings motivate incorporating persistent homology into inference pipelines for cosmological survey data.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2020

Validation of selection function, sample contamination and mass calibration in galaxy cluster samples

ABSTRACT We construct and validate the selection function of the MARD-Y3 galaxy cluster sample. This sample was selected through optical follow-up of the 2nd ROSAT faint source catalogue with Dark Energy Survey year 3 data. The selection function is modelled by combining an empirically constructed X-ray selection function with an incompleteness model for the optical follow-up. We validate the joint selection function by testing the consistency of the constraints on the X-ray flux–mass and richness–mass scaling relation parameters derived from different sources of mass information: (1) cross-calibration using South Pole Telescope Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SPT-SZ) clusters, (2) calibration using number counts in X-ray, in optical and in both X-ray and optical while marginalizing over cosmological parameters, and (3) other published analyses. We find that the constraints on the scaling relation from the number counts and SPT-SZ cross-calibration agree, indicating that our modelling of the selection function is adequate. Furthermore, we apply a largely cosmology independent method to validate selection functions via the computation of the probability of finding each cluster in the SPT-SZ sample in the MARD-Y3 sample and vice versa. This test reveals no clear evidence for MARD-Y3 contamination, SPT-SZ incompleteness or outlier fraction. Finally, we discuss the prospects of the techniques presented here to limit systematic selection effects in future cluster cosmological studies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1993

Gravitational radiation, inspiraling binaries, and cosmology

We show how to measure cosmological parameters using observations of inspiraling binary neutron star or black hole systems in one or more gravitational wave detectors. To illustrate, we focus on the case of fixed mass binary systems observed in a single Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO)-like detector. Using realistic detector noise estimates, we characterize the rate of detections as a function of a threshold SNR Rho(0), H0, and the binary 'chirp' mass. For Rho(0) = 8, H0 = 100 km/s/Mpc, and 1.4 solar mass neutron star binaries, the sample has a median redshift of 0.22. Under the same assumptions but independent of H0, a conservative rate density of coalescing binaries implies LIGO will observe about 50/yr binary inspiral events. The precision with which H0 and the deceleration parameter q0 may be determined depends on the number of observed inspirals. For fixed mass binary systems, about 100 observations with Rho(0) = 10 in the LIGO will give H0 to 10 percent in an Einstein-DeSitter cosmology, and 3000 will give q0 to 20 percent. For the conservative rate density of coalescing binaries, 100 detections with Rho(0) = 10 will require about 4 yrs.

Chernoff, David F.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Weak-Lensing Mass Calibration of the Atacama Cosmology Telescope Equatorial Sunyaev-Zeldovich Cluster Sample with the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Stripe 82 Survey

Mass calibration uncertainty is the largest systematic effect for using clustersof galaxies to constrain cosmological parameters. We present weak lensing mass measurements from the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Stripe 82 Survey for galaxy clusters selected through their high signal-to-noise thermal Sunyaev-Zeldovich (tSZ) signal measured with the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT). For a sample of 9 ACT clusters with a tSZ signal-to-noise greater than five, the average weak lensing mass is (4.8 plus or minus 0.8) times 10 (sup 14) solar mass, consistent with the tSZ mass estimate of (4.7 plus or minus 1.0) times 10 (sup 14) solar mass, which assumes a universal pressure profile for the cluster gas. Our results are consistent with previous weak-lensing measurements of tSZ-detected clusters from the Planck satellite. When comparing our results, we estimate the Eddington bias correction for the sample intersection of Planck and weak-lensing clusters which was previously excluded.

Battaglia, N.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Power spectrum constraints from spectral distortions in the cosmic microwave background

Using recent experimental limits on chemical potential distortions from Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) Far Infrared Astronomy Satellite (FIRAS), and the large lever-arm spanning the damping of sub-Jeans scale fluctuations to the COBE DMR fluctuations, we set a constraint on the slope of the primordial power spectrum n. It is possible to analytically calculate the contribution over the full range of scales and redshifts, correctly taking into account fluctuation growth and damping as well as thermalization processes. Assuming conservatively that mu is less than 1.76 x 10(exp -4), we find that the 95% upper limit on n is only weakly dependent on other cosmological parameters, e.g., n is less than 1.60 (h=0.5) and n is less than 1.63 (h=1.0) for Omega(sub 0) = 1, with marginally weaker constraints for Omega(sub 0) is less than 1 in a flat model with a cosmological constant.

Hu, Wayne↗

DOE OSTI2023

A forward modeling approach to analyzing galaxy clustering with S IM BIG

We present cosmological constraints from a simulation-based inference (SBI) analysis of galaxy clustering from the SimBIG forward modeling framework. SimBIG leverages the predictive power of high-fidelity simulations and provides an inference framework that can extract cosmological information on small nonlinear scales. In this work, we apply SimBIG to the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS) CMASS galaxy sample and analyze the power spectrum, P ℓ (k), to k max = 0.5 h/Mpc. We construct 20,000 simulated galaxy samples using our forward model, which is based on 2,000 high-resolution Quijote N -body simulations and includes detailed survey realism for a more complete treatment of observational systematics. We then conduct SBI by training normalizing flows using the simulated samples and infer the posterior distribution of ΛCDM cosmological parameters: Ω m , Ω b , h, n s , σ 8 . We derive significant constraints on Ω m and σ 8 , which are consistent with previous works. Our constraint on σ 8 is 27% more precise than standard P ℓ analyses because we exploit additional cosmological information on nonlinear scales beyond the limit of current analytic models, k > 0.25 h/Mpc. This improvement is equivalent to the statistical gain expected from a standard P ℓ analysis of galaxy sample ~ 60% larger than CMASS. While we focus on P ℓ in this work for validation and comparison to the literature, SimBIG provides a framework for analyzing galaxy clustering using any summary statistic. We expect further improvements on cosmological constraints from subsequent SimBIG analyses of summary statistics beyond P ℓ .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2010

James Webb Space Telescope Studies of Dark Energy

The Hubble Space Telescope (HST) has contributed significantly to studies of dark energy. It was used to find the first evidence of deceleration at z=1.8 (Riess et al. 2001) through the serendipitous discovery of a type 1a supernova (SN1a) in the Hubble Deep Field. The discovery of deceleration at z greater than 1 was confirmation that the apparent acceleration at low redshift (Riess et al. 1998; Perlmutter et al. 1999) was due to dark energy rather than observational or astrophysical effects such as systematic errors, evolution in the SN1a population or intergalactic dust. The GOODS project and associated follow-up discovered 21 SN1a, expanding on this result (Riess et al. 2007). HST has also been used to constrain cosmological parameters and dark energy through weak lensing measurements in the COSMOS survey (Massey et al 2007; Schrabback et al 2009) and strong gravitational lensing with measured time delays (Suyu et al 2010). Constraints on dark energy are often parameterized as the equation of state, w = P/p. For the cosmological constant model, w = -1 at all times; other models predict a change with time, sometimes parameterized generally as w(a) or approximated as w(sub 0)+(1-a)w(sub a), where a = (1+z)(sup -1) is the scale factor of the universe relative to its current scale. Dark energy can be constrained through several measurements. Standard candles, such as SN1a, provide a direct measurement of the luminosity distance as a function of redshift, which can be converted to H(z), the change in the Hubble constant with redshift. An analysis of weak lensing in a galaxy field can be used to derive the angular-diameter distance from the weak-lensing equation and to measure the power spectrum of dark-matter halos, which constrains the growth of structure in the Universe. Baryonic acoustic oscillations (BAO), imprinted on the distribution of matter at recombination, provide a standard rod for measuring the cosmological geometry. Strong gravitational lensing of a time-variable source gives the angular diameter distance through measured time delays of multiple images. Finally, the growth of structure can also be constrained by measuring the mass of the largest galaxy clusters over cosmic time. HST has contributed to the study of dark energy through SN1a and gravitational lensing, as discussed above. HST has also helped to characterize galaxy clusters and the HST-measured constraints on the current Hubble constant H(sub 0) are relevant to the interpretation of dark energy measurements (Riess et al 2009a). HST has not been used to constrain BAO as the large number of galaxy redshifts required, of order 100 million, is poorly matched to HST's capabilities. As the successor to HST, the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST; Gardner et al 2006) will continue and extend HST's dark energy work in several ways.

Gardner, Jonathan P.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Galaxy Clustering in the Mira-Titan Universe. I. Emulators for the Redshift Space Galaxy Correlation Function and Galaxy–Galaxy Lensing

Abstract We construct accurate emulators for the projected and redshift space galaxy correlation functions and excess surface density as measured by galaxy–galaxy lensing, based on halo occupation distribution modeling. Using the complete Mira-Titan suite of 111 N -body simulations, our emulators vary over eight cosmological parameters and include the effects of neutrino mass and dynamical dark energy. We demonstrate that our emulators are sufficiently accurate for the analysis of the Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey DR12 CMASS galaxy sample over the range 0.5 ≤ r ≤ 50 h −1 Mpc. Furthermore, we show that our emulators are capable of recovering unbiased cosmological constraints from realistic mock catalogs over the same range. Our mock catalog tests show the efficacy of combining small-scale galaxy–galaxy lensing with redshift space clustering and that we can constrain the growth rate and σ 8 to 7% and 4.5%, respectively, for a CMASS-like sample using only the measurements covered by our emulator. With the inclusion of a cosmic microwave background prior on H 0 , this reduces to a 2% measurement of the growth rate.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1990

Cosmology from the moon

The effective investigation of observational cosmological parameters is considered with attention given to the shielding provided by the lunar environment. The present measurements of the microwave and IR backgrounds are discussed, and reference is given to IR, microwave, and X- and gamma-ray investigations away from the earth to protect from terrestrial interferences. The most promising lunar investigations of cosmology are found to be studies of the microwave background and the X-ray and gamma-ray backgrounds from a hole in the lunar surface of 10 meters in depth.

Mather, John C.↗