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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1979

Near-term hybrid vehicle program, phase 1. Appendix D: Sensitivity analysis resport

Parametric analyses, using a hybrid vehicle synthesis and economics program (HYVELD) are described investigating the sensitivity of hybrid vehicle cost, fuel usage, utility, and marketability to changes in travel statistics, energy costs, vehicle lifetime and maintenance, owner use patterns, internal combustion engine (ICE) reference vehicle fuel economy, and drive-line component costs and type. The lowest initial cost of the hybrid vehicle would be $1200 to $1500 higher than that of the conventional vehicle. For nominal energy costs ($1.00/gal for gasoline and 4.2 cents/kWh for electricity), the ownership cost of the hybrid vehicle is projected to be 0.5 to 1.0 cents/mi less than the conventional ICE vehicle. To attain this ownership cost differential, the lifetime of the hybrid vehicle must be extended to 12 years and its maintenance cost reduced by 25 percent compared with the conventional vehicle. The ownership cost advantage of the hybrid vehicle increases rapidly as the price of fuel increases from $1 to $2/gal.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1983

Optimum sensitivity derivatives of objective functions in nonlinear programming

The feasibility of eliminating second derivatives from the input of optimum sensitivity analyses of optimization problems is demonstrated. This elimination restricts the sensitivity analysis to the first-order sensitivity derivatives of the objective function. It is also shown that when a complete first-order sensitivity analysis is performed, second-order sensitivity derivatives of the objective function are available at little additional cost. An expression is derived whose application to linear programming is presented.

Barthelemy, J.-F. M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Technology Benefit Estimator (T/BEST): User's Manual

The Technology Benefit Estimator (T/BEST) system is a formal method to assess advanced technologies and quantify the benefit contributions for prioritization. T/BEST may be used to provide guidelines to identify and prioritize high payoff research areas, help manage research and limited resources, show the link between advanced concepts and the bottom line, i.e., accrued benefit and value, and to communicate credibly the benefits of research. The T/BEST software computer program is specifically designed to estimating benefits, and benefit sensitivities, of introducing new technologies into existing propulsion systems. Key engine cycle, structural, fluid, mission and cost analysis modules are used to provide a framework for interfacing with advanced technologies. An open-ended, modular approach is used to allow for modification and addition of both key and advanced technology modules. T/BEST has a hierarchical framework that yields varying levels of benefit estimation accuracy that are dependent on the degree of input detail available. This hierarchical feature permits rapid estimation of technology benefits even when the technology is at the conceptual stage. As knowledge of the technology details increases the accuracy of the benefit analysis increases. Included in T/BEST's framework are correlations developed from a statistical data base that is relied upon if there is insufficient information given in a particular area, e.g., fuel capacity or aircraft landing weight. Statistical predictions are not required if these data are specified in the mission requirements. The engine cycle, structural fluid, cost, noise, and emissions analyses interact with the default or user material and component libraries to yield estimates of specific global benefits: range, speed, thrust, capacity, component life, noise, emissions, specific fuel consumption, component and engine weights, pre-certification test, mission performance engine cost, direct operating cost, life cycle cost, manufacturing cost, development cost, risk, and development time. Currently, T/BEST operates on stand-alone or networked workstations, and uses a UNIX shell or script to control the operation of interfaced FORTRAN based analyses. T/BEST's interface structure works equally well with non-FORTRAN or mixed software analysis. This interface structure is designed to maintain the integrity of the expert's analyses by interfacing with expert's existing input and output files. Parameter input and output data (e.g., number of blades, hub diameters, etc.) are passed via T/BEST's neutral file, while copious data (e.g., finite element models, profiles, etc.) are passed via file pointers that point to the expert's analyses output files. In order to make the communications between the T/BEST's neutral file and attached analyses codes simple, only two software commands, PUT and GET, are required. This simplicity permits easy access to all input and output variables contained within the neutral file. Both public domain and proprietary analyses codes may be attached with a minimal amount of effort, while maintaining full data and analysis integrity, and security. T/BESt's sotware framework, status, beginner-to-expert operation, interface architecture, analysis module addition, and key analysis modules are discussed. Representative examples of T/BEST benefit analyses are shown.

Generazio, Edward R.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Space system operations and support cost analysis using Markov chains

This paper evaluates the use of Markov chain process in probabilistic life cycle cost analysis and suggests further uses of the process as a design aid tool. A methodology is developed for estimating operations and support cost and expected life for reusable space transportation systems. Application of the methodology is demonstrated for the case of a hypothetical space transportation vehicle. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to explore the effects of uncertainty in key model inputs.

Unal, Resit↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis in Process-Structure-Property Simulations for Laser Powder Bed Fusion Additive Manufacturing

Process variations and process-induced defects like porosity cause significant uncertainty in the microstructure and mechanical behavior of additively manufactured metals. Establishing process-structure-property (PSP) relationships and quantifying uncertainty using experiments alone is costly, especially for structural applications where mechanical allowables must be established for qualification and certification. This work presents a PSP simulation framework for laser powder bed fusion with a focus on uncertainty quantification through probabilistic calibration and multi-fidelity uncertainty propagation. Motivated by phenomenological input parameters related to grain nucleation and growth that are difficult to characterize, a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is completed. Through GSA, the most important input parameters are identified based on their influence on the statistical distributions of microstructural metrics that influence mechanical behavior, including grain size, morphology, and crystallographic texture. The results provide insight on what experiments are necessary to quantify and control PSP uncertainties, particularly those associated with the more challenging input parameters.

additive manufacturing↗
NASA NTRS1992

Space transportation architecture: Reliability sensitivities

A sensitivity analysis is given of the benefits and drawbacks associated with a proposed Earth to orbit vehicle architecture. The architecture represents a fleet of six vehicles (two existing, four proposed) that would be responsible for performing various missions as mandated by NASA and the U.S. Air Force. Each vehicle has a prescribed flight rate per year for a period of 31 years. By exposing this fleet of vehicles to a probabilistic environment where the fleet experiences failures, downtimes, setbacks, etc., the analysis involves determining the resiliency and costs associated with the fleet of specific vehicle/subsystem reliabilities. The resources required were actual observed data on the failures and downtimes associated with existing vehicles, data based on engineering judgement for proposed vehicles, and the development of a sensitivity analysis program.

Williams, A. M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity analysis of numerical modeling input parameters on floating offshore wind turbine loads

Abstract. Floating wind turbines must withstand a unique and challenging set of loads from the wind and ocean environment. To de-risk development, accurate predictions of these loads are necessary. Uncertainty in modeling predictions leads to larger required safety factors, increasing project costs and the levelized cost of energy. Complex aero-hydro-elastic modeling tools use many input parameters to represent the wind, waves, current, aerodynamic loads, hydrodynamic loads, and structural properties. It is helpful to understand which of these parameters ultimately drives a design. In this work, an ultimate and fatigue-proxy load sensitivity analysis was performed with 35 different input parameters, using an elementary effects approach to identify the most influential parameters for a case study involving the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 5 MW baseline wind turbine atop the OC4-DeepCwind semisubmersible during normal operation. The importance of each parameter was evaluated using 14 response quantities of interest across three operational wind speed conditions. The study concludes that turbulent wind velocity standard deviation is the parameter with the strongest sensitivity; this value is important not just for turbine loads, but also for the global system response. The system center of mass in the wind direction is found to have the highest impact on the system rotation and tower loads. The current velocity is found to be the most dominating parameter for the system global motion and consequently the mooring loads. All tested wind turbulence parameters in addition to the standard deviation are also found to be influential. Wave characteristics are influential for some fatigue-proxy loading but do not significantly impact the extreme ultimate loads in these operational load cases. The required number of random seeds for stochastic environmental conditions is considered to ensure that the sensitivities are due to the input parameters and not due to the seed. The required number of analysis points in the parameter space is identified so that the conclusions represent a global sensitivity. The results are specific to the platform, turbine, and choice of parameter ranges, but the demonstrated approach can be applied widely to guide focus in parameter uncertainty.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1980

Solar energy system economic evaluation for Solaron Akron, Akron, Ohio

The economic analysis of the solar energy system that was installed at Akron, Ohio is developed for this and four other sites typical of a wide range of environmental and economic conditions. The analysis is accomplished based on the technical and economic models in the f chart design procedure with inputs based on the characteristics of the installed parameters of present worth of system cost over a projected twenty year life: life cycle savings, year of positive savings and year of payback for the optimized solar energy system at each of the analysis sites. The sensitivity of the economic evaluation to uncertainties in constituent system and economic variables is also investigated. Results show that only in Albuquerque, New Mexico, where insolation is 1828 Btu/sq ft/day and the conventional energy cost is high, is this solar energy system marginally profitable.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1988

Space station integrated propulsion and fluid systems study

The program study was performed in two tasks: Task 1 addressed propulsion systems and Task 2 addressed all fluid systems associated with the Space Station elements, which also included propulsion and pressurant systems. Program results indicated a substantial reduction in life cycle costs through integrating the oxygen/hydrogen propulsion system with the environmental control and life support system, and through supplying nitrogen in a cryogenic gaseous supercritical or subcritical liquid state. A water sensitivity analysis showed that increasing the food water content would substantially increase the amount of water available for propulsion use and in all cases, the implementation of the BOSCH CO2 reduction process would reduce overall life cycle costs to the station and minimize risk. An investigation of fluid systems and associated requirements revealed a delicate balance between the individual propulsion and fluid systems across work packages and a strong interdependence between all other fluid systems.

Bicknell, B.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electrification of residential and commercial buildings integrated with hybrid renewable energy systems: A techno-economic analysis

Here, this study assesses the techno-economic viability of city-scale building electrification, comparing a base case scenario with conventional HVAC systems to an electrified scenario with heat pump systems. EnergyPlus simulations reveal a 28% increase in annual electricity consumption in the electrified scenario, shifting the peak consumption from summer to winter with a 49% surge. Hybrid renewable energy systems (HRESs) are then evaluated using HOMER Pro, considering renewable penetration from 0% to 100%. The net present cost (NPC) of the base case and electrified scenarios range from $\$10.34$ to $\$24.38$ billion and $\$8.79$ to $\$50.31$ billion, respectively. Sensitivity analysis explores the impact of carbon tax, fuel price, and renewable subsidies on HRESs in the electrified scenario. Results indicate that applying a carbon tax up to $\$120$/tonne of CO 2 increases the optimum renewable fraction from 5% to 26%, while higher fuel prices and renewable subsidies further enhance the feasibility by shifting the optimum renewable fraction to 60% and 54%, respectively, demonstrating the interplay between economic factors and renewable integration in electrified urban contexts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Truck platooning in the U.S. national road network: A system-level modeling approach

Truck platooning enables a group of trucks to move close together, which helps reduce truck fuel use and increase effective road capacity. In this paper, a system-level equilibrium model is developed to characterize spontaneous truck platooning with coexistence of non-platooning vehicles in a network, by explicitly accounting for the interlocking relationship among platoon formation time, truck fuel saving, and increase in effective road capacity. To equilibrate the relationships, an algorithm is proposed which involves a diagonalization approach and a bush based algorithm to solve decomposed subproblems. The condition of proportionality is imposed to obtain unique traffic flows for each class of vehicles on road links. In addition, a spatially constrained multivariate clustering technique is employed to construct origin/destination zones that are smaller than the coarse Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) zones, while maintaining reasonable computational burden for network traffic assignment. Model implementation in the U.S. shows that platooning could lead to 7.9% fuel saving among platoonable trucks in 2025 and a comparable increase in effective capacity of platoonable road links, which would account for 60% of rural interstate roads. The fuel saving and road capacity improvement translate into an annual cost reduction of $\$$868 million for the U.S. intercity trucking sector and reduced road infrastructure investment needs worth $\$$4.8 billion. Extensive sensitivity analysis further reveals that fuel saving of platoonable trucks increases with platoon size but decreases with inter-truck distance in a platoon. Fuel saving potential suggests that priority should be given to rural rather than urban roads in deploying platooning technologies. As we expected, greater market penetration of platooning technologies means higher fuel saving and greater increase in effective road capacity.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS2002

Preliminary Thermal-Mechanical Sizing of Metallic TPS: Process Development and Sensitivity Studies

The purpose of this research was to perform sensitivity studies and develop a process to perform thermal and structural analysis and sizing of the latest Metallic Thermal Protection System (TPS) developed at NASA LaRC (Langley Research Center). Metallic TPS is a key technology for reducing the cost of reusable launch vehicles (RLV), offering the combination of increased durability and competitive weights when compared to other systems. Accurate sizing of metallic TPS requires combined thermal and structural analysis. Initial sensitivity studies were conducted using transient one-dimensional finite element thermal analysis to determine the influence of various TPS and analysis parameters on TPS weight. The thermal analysis model was then used in combination with static deflection and failure mode analysis of the sandwich panel outer surface of the TPS to obtain minimum weight TPS configurations at three vehicle stations on the windward centerline of a representative RLV. The coupled nature of the analysis requires an iterative analysis process, which will be described herein. Findings from the sensitivity analysis are reported, along with TPS designs at the three RLV vehicle stations considered.

Poteet, Carl C.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Application of the ABC helicopter to the emergency medical service role

Attention is called to the use of helicopters in transporting the sick and injured to medical facilities. It is noted that the helicopter's speed of response and delivery increases patient survival rates and may reduce the cost of medical care and its burden on society. Among the vehicle characteristics desired for this use are a cruising speed of 200 knots, a single engine hover capability at 10,000 ft, and an absence of a tail rotor. Three designs for helicopters incorporating such new technologies as digital/optical control systems, all composite air-frames, and third-generation airfoils are presented. A sensitivity analysis is conducted to show the effect of design speed, mission radius, and single engine hover capability on vehicle weight, fuel consumption, operating costs, and productivity.

Levine, L. S.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity analysis of the technical and economic feasibility of converter-interfaced CHP System

The adoption of small-to-medium sized (1MW~20MW) combined heat and power (CHP) system is lagging, especially in industrial and commercial applications. Our prior research has proved that interfacing CHP with grid-ready converters can increase its economic value and technical benefits; this paper is focused on investigating the critical parameters impacting profitability of converter-interfaced CHP, including CHP sizing scenario, energy price, generator cost, converter cost, voltage support price, converter to engine size ratio and interconnection delay. An automatic toolkit for evaluating CHP return on investment (ROI) is developed to enhance the computation capability and efficiency. Based on varying the value of critical parameters, 975 use cases are analyzed. Results show that the profitability of converter-interfaced CHP over directly-coupled CHP is more sensitive to energy price, delays in interconnection process, converter cost and much less to generator cost or voltage support price.

converter, CHP, ROI, economic feasibility, sensiti↗
NASA NTRS1971

Information transfer satellite concept study. Volume 1: Summary

A wide range of information transfer demands were identified and analyzed. They were then combined into an appropriate set of requirements for satellite communication services. In this process the demands were ranked and combined into single and multipurpose satellite systems. A detailed analysis was performed on each satellite system to determine: total system cost, including both ground and space segments; sensitivities of the systems to various system tradeoffs; and forcing functions which control the system variations. A listing of candidate missions for detailed study is presented, along with a description of the conceptual system design and an identification of the technology developments required to bring these systems to fruition.

Bergin, P.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying the Financial Impacts of Electric Vehicles on Utility Ratepayers and Shareholders [Slides]

Widespread electric vehicle (EV) adoption is critical for meeting economy-wide decarbonization goals and, as a result, states are considering enabling policies and rate designs to accelerate EV deployment. EVs can provide possible financial upside to electric utilities and ratepayers in several ways. For example, from the utility perspective, EVs could drive increased electricity sales and new earnings opportunities through increased capital investments. From the ratepayer perspective, increased electric loads from EVs could reduce average all-in retail rates. The degree to which there are net benefits or costs to shareholders and/or ratepayers depends on how EVs are integrated and managed through enabling grid investments and charging strategies. Using Berkeley Lab’s Financial Impacts of Distributed Energy Resources (FINDER) model that mimics the electric utility investment planning and ratemaking processes, we estimate the utility earnings and customer rate impacts of EVs using a bookend approach of “managed” (i.e., best case) and “mismanaged” (i.e., worst case) charging strategies for a generic summer-peaking, investor-owned, and vertically integrated utility. The analysis also examines the sensitivity of results to different assumptions of EV deployment characteristics, EV impacts on retail electricity sales, incremental distribution system costs, EV charging location, and utility EV enablement costs (i.e., utility costs to invest in EV charging, controls, and communication to deliver and administer EV programs). The results are intended to inform EV policies and deployment strategies that maximize utility system benefits and minimize ratepayer costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1979

Design tradeoff studies and sensitivity analysis, appendix B

Further work was performed on the Near Term Hybrid Passenger Vehicle Development Program. Fuel economy on the order of 2 to 3 times that of a conventional vehicle, with a comparable life cycle cost, is possible. The two most significant factors in keeping the life cycle cost down are the retail price increment and the ratio of battery replacement cost to battery life. Both factors can be reduced by reducing the power rating of the electric drive portion of the system relative to the system power requirements. The type of battery most suitable for the hybrid, from the point of view of minimizing life cycle cost, is nickel-iron. The hybrid is much less sensitive than a conventional vehicle is, in terms of the reduction in total fuel consumption and resultant decreases in operating expense, to reductions in vehicle weight, tire rolling resistance, etc., and to propulsion system and drivetrain improvements designed to improve the brake specific fuel consumption of the engine under low road load conditions. It is concluded that modifications to package the propulsion system and battery pack can be easily accommodated within the confines of a modified carryover body such as the Ford Ltd.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cooled Gas Turbine and Combined Cycle Analysis for H 2 -CH 4 Fuel Mixes (Up to 100% H 2 )

In this study, a cooled gas turbine analysis was conducted for varying levels of hydrogen (H 2 ) blends with the natural gas. The ultimate goal is to have a gas turbine design that can be used for all the fuel blends (including 100% H 2 ) without any changes to the system. The technological developments in the cooling system, gas turbine design and materials that will be required for H 2 combustion were identified and analyzed in this study to develop an advanced gas turbine design for H 2 fuels. The study includes a combined cycle performance analysis with the H 2 fuel blends using the advanced gas turbine design developed in this study. A techno-economic analysis was conducted for analyzing the impact of the H 2 fuels on the levelized cost of electricity and cost sensitivities to fuel price and capacity factor.

03 NATURAL GAS↗