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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12

Space station needs, attributes and architectural options study. Volume 5: Cost benefits and programmatic analyses

The science, applications, commercial, U.S. national security and space operations missions that would require or be materially benefited by the availability of a permanent manned space station in low Earth orbit are considered. Space station attributes and capabilities which will be necessary to satisfy these mission requirements are identified. Emphasis is placed on the identification and validation of potential users, their requirements, and the benefits accruing to them from the existence of a space station, and the programmatic and cost implications of a space station program.

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Polycrystalline silicon study: Low-cost silicon refining technology prospects and semiconductor-grade polycrystalline silicon availability through 1988

Photovoltaic arrays that convert solar energy into electrical energy can become a cost effective bulk energy generation alternative, provided that an adequate supply of low cost materials is available. One of the key requirements for economic photovoltaic cells is reasonably priced silicon. At present, the photovoltaic industry is dependent upon polycrystalline silicon refined by the Siemens process primarily for integrated circuits, power devices, and discrete semiconductor devices. This dependency is expected to continue until the DOE sponsored low cost silicon refining technology developments have matured to the point where they are in commercial use. The photovoltaic industry can then develop its own source of supply. Silicon material availability and market pricing projections through 1988 are updated based on data collected early in 1984. The silicon refining industry plans to meet the increasing demands of the semiconductor device and photovoltaic product industries are overviewed. In addition, the DOE sponsored technology research for producing low cost polycrystalline silicon, probabilistic cost analysis for the two most promising production processes for achieving the DOE cost goals, and the impacts of the DOE photovoltaics program silicon refining research upon the commercial polycrystalline silicon refining industry are addressed.

Costogue, E. N.↗

Space Transportatioin System (STS) propellant scavenging system study. Volume 3: Cost and work breakdown structure-dictionary

Fundamentally, the volumes of the oxidizer and fuel propellant scavenged from the orbiter and external tank determine the size and weight of the scavenging system. The optimization of system dimensions and weights is stimulated by the requirement to minimize the use of partial length of the orbiter payload bay. Thus, the cost estimates begin with weights established for the optimum design. Both the design, development, test, and evaluation and theoretical first unit hardware production costs are estimated from parametric cost weight scaling relations for four subsystems. For cryogenic propellants, the widely differing characteristics of the oxidizer and the fuel lead to two separate tank subsystems, in addition to the electrical and instrumentation subsystems. Hardwares costs also involve quantity, as an independent variable, since the number of production scavenging systems is not firm. For storable propellants, since the tankage volume of the oxidizer and fuel are equal, the hardware production costs for developing these systems are lower than for cryogenic propellants.

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Space biology initiative program definition review. Trade study 1: Automation costs versus crew utilization

A significant emphasis upon automation within the Space Biology Initiative hardware appears justified in order to conserve crew labor and crew training effort. Two generic forms of automation were identified: automation of data and information handling and decision making, and the automation of material handling, transfer, and processing. The use of automatic data acquisition, expert systems, robots, and machine vision will increase the volume of experiments and quality of results. The automation described may also influence efforts to miniaturize and modularize the large array of SBI hardware identified to date. The cost and benefit model developed appears to be a useful guideline for SBI equipment specifiers and designers. Additional refinements would enhance the validity of the model. Two NASA automation pilot programs, 'The Principal Investigator in a Box' and 'Rack Mounted Robots' were investigated and found to be quite appropriate for adaptation to the SBI program. There are other in-house NASA efforts that provide technology that may be appropriate for the SBI program. Important data is believed to exist in advanced medical labs throughout the U.S., Japan, and Europe. The information and data processing in medical analysis equipment is highly automated and future trends reveal continued progress in this area. However, automation of material handling and processing has progressed in a limited manner because the medical labs are not affected by the power and space constraints that Space Station medical equipment is faced with. Therefore, NASA's major emphasis in automation will require a lead effort in the automation of material handling to achieve optimal crew utilization.

Jackson, L. Neal↗

High-speed research program systems analysis activities at Ames Research Center

The Ames Systems Analysis Branch has been working to support the High Speed Research Program (HSRP) for nearly one year. Both the status of methodology development activities and the results of studies are presented whether completed or underway. The discussion involves the conceptual design synthesis program used for High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) studies, ACSYNT (aircraft synthesis), and enhancements that have been made especially for HSRP. Some results are presented for one study that has been completed and two that are underway. These are the advanced controls integration study, the fuel cost impact study, and the oblique wing configuration evaluation that is part of a larger innovative concepts study.

Kidwell, George H.↗

Studies in Software Cost Model Behavior: Do We Really Understand Cost Model Performance?

While there exists extensive literature on software cost estimation techniques, industry practice continues to rely upon standard regression-based algorithms. These software effort models are typically calibrated or tuned to local conditions using local data. This paper cautions that current approaches to model calibration often produce sub-optimal models because of the large variance problem inherent in cost data and by including far more effort multipliers than the data supports. Building optimal models requires that a wider range of models be considered while correctly calibrating these models requires rejection rules that prune variables and records and use multiple criteria for evaluating model performance. The main contribution of this paper is to document a standard method that integrates formal model identification, estimation, and validation. It also documents what we call the large variance problem that is a leading cause of cost model brittleness or instability.

data mining↗

Technology forecasting for space communication. Task one report: Cost and weight tradeoff studies for EOS and TDRS

Weight and cost optimized EOS communication links are determined for 2.25, 7.25, 14.5, 21, and 60 GHz systems and for a 10.6 micron homodyne detection laser system. EOS to ground links are examined for 556, 834, and 1112 km EOS orbits, with ground terminals at the Network Test and Tracking Facility and at Goldstone. Optimized 21 GHz and 10.6 micron links are also examined. For the EOS to Tracking and Data Relay Satellite to ground link, signal-to-noise ratios of the uplink and downlink are also optimized for minimum overall cost or spaceborne weight. Finally, the optimized 21 GHz EOS to ground link is determined for various precipitation rates. All system performance parameters and mission dependent constraints are presented, as are the system cost and weight functional dependencies. The features and capabilities of the computer program to perform the foregoing analyses are described.

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Automated array assembly

Manufacturing techniques are evaluated using expenses based on experience and studying basic cost factors for each step to evaluate expenses from a first-principles point of view. A formal cost accounting procedure is developed which is used throughout the study for cost comparisons. The first test of this procedure is a comparison of its predicted costs for array module manufacturing with costs from a study which is based on experience factors. A manufacturing cost estimate for array modules of $10/W is based on present-day manufacturing techniques, expenses, and materials costs.

Williams, B. F.↗

Explanation of Change Cost and Schedule Growth Study Interim Status Briefing

This slide presentation reviews the study to understand the changes in cost and schedule growth for NASA projects. A second goal was to determine the percentage of growth that was outside the control of the project. The study examined project documentation, conducted interviews with key project personnel, and allocated growth events to an Explanation of Change (EoC) tree to quantify the reasons for growth in the scheduled time. This briefing reviews the results of the study of the first 20 missions.

Croonce, Thomas↗

Outline of cost-benefit analysis and a case study

The methodology of cost-benefit analysis is reviewed and a case study involving solar cell technology is presented. Emphasis is placed on simplifying the technique in order to permit a technical person not trained in economics to undertake a cost-benefit study comparing alternative approaches to a given problem. The role of economic analysis in management decision making is discussed. In simplifying the methodology it was necessary to restrict the scope and applicability of this report. Additional considerations and constraints are outlined. Examples are worked out to demonstrate the principles. A computer program which performs the computational aspects appears in the appendix.

Kellizy, A.↗

Design Study for A Low-Cost LH2 Turbopump

A preliminary design study, focusing on potential component selections and design for manufacturing and assembly (DFMAR1) analysis, is presented in this study. The investigation focused on a nominal cost liquid hydrogen turbopump suitable for a private launch class vehicle. Utilizing a "turbocharger-like" design philosophy, preliminary feasibility studies of the basic pump design class, the rotordynamic design class, and the turbine design class were conducted with associated DFMA evaluations. Reasonable cost levels and sensible levels of product assurance have been established.

Japikse, David↗

Bifacial PV Module Energy Modeling Validation Study

The cost delta between monofacial and bifacial photovoltaic (PV) modules was decreasing in 2018 when this study was initially proposed, making bifacial modules an attractive offering. However, there were limited field studies available that could be considered utility-scale representative, and PV module manufacturers were stating large ranges for the expected energy yield improvements of bifacial technology. This generated uncertainties regarding bifacial performance gains and the actual LCOE (levelized cost of energy). There was also relatively low confidence in the industry’s energy modeling tools’ ability to accurately predict bifacial energy yield, meaning that early adopters of bifacial modules were not able to fully account for the increased energy yield in their energy and financial models. The intent of this project was to provide the solar industry with greater certainty on the energy yield gains of bifacial modules and provide higher confidence in the ability for different energy modeling software to model bifacial PV site performance. Achieving this would allow for bifacial technology to become bankable (i.e. accepted by Independent Engineers, site financiers and other PV site stakeholders), offering a step change in PV site performance that had not been seen since the widespread adoption of the single-axis tracker. Over the course of this study other economic factors including a significant tariff exemption for bifacial modules resulted in accelerated adoption of bifacial technology throughout the US utility scale solar segment. The number of early adopters increased rapidly, and with many investors accepting this module choice the question of bifacial bankability was seemingly answered faster than expected. However, PVEL’s study has still achieved significant accomplishments in demonstrating the accuracy of bifacial modeling across three different software platforms. The results of this study have shown that the mean biased error (MBE) between the field data and the predicted values from all three software platforms were aligned with a maximum MBE of 1.3% and a minimum MBE of -1.8%.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Grid-Supportive Loads for Fast Frequency Response: Preprint

Flexibility in inverter-based loads could be used to support the converter-dominated power grid by offering a rapid, autonomous, and adjustable power reserve during system transients to help maintain system stability. Based on technical potential, ancillary service (AS) value, and implementation costs, this study illustrates the cost-benefit analysis of grid-supportive loads (GSLs) for the supply of fast frequency response (FFR). The net benefit for each GSL is demonstrated using a case study and relevant data sources. The findings suggest that implementation costs for enabling GSL features are low compared to the value that grid operators get from the acquisition of responsive reserve services. The authors believes that, given the rising popularity of renewable energy sources, GSLs can be a useful tool for grid stability in low-inertia systems.

cost benefit↗

Cost Drivers for a Tokamak-Based Compact Pilot Plant

A comprehensive systems code that includes a range of physics and engineering considerations along with a simplified costing model has been utilized to evaluate the primary cost drivers for a compact tokamak pilot plant. The systems code has been benchmarked against several tokamak reactor designs and is utilized with sophisticated optimization algorithms to develop optimal solutions for a set of user-specified assumptions and design constraints. Here, in contrast to previous models that have focused on the cost of electricity as the key cost metric, this study uses the estimated capital cost of the facility. The analysis suggests that a pilot plant with the following features may offer potential for a cost-attractive pilot plant: A ~ 3, H 98y2 > 1.5, P net = 200 MW, 𝜏 𝑝⁢𝑢⁢𝑙⁢𝑠⁢𝑒 ~ 1 to 2 h utilizing rare-earth barium copper oxide (REBCO) magnet technology and a plug-bucked central solenoid/toroidal field (CS/TF) magnet support structure. While REBCO magnets offer some advantages relative to Nb 3 Sn magnets in all cases, the most gain is obtained when combined with the plug-bucked CS/TF bucking solution. Pulsed operation reduces capital cost requirements relative to steady-state operation, especially at low confinement. Cost sensitivity studies indicate that there are significant cost uncertainties associated with the achievable confinement quality, tritium breeding capability, attainable thermal efficiency, and achievable neutron wall loading, suggesting that these areas are the most critical areas in reducing the cost risk for a compact tokamak pilot plant. Further cost sensitivity studies indicate that the estimated cost is most sensitive to the underlying cost of the magnetic coils, providing further impetus to better establish cost-effective means for producing fusion magnets.

Compact pilot plant↗

Costs and benefits of composite material applications to a civil STOL aircraft

Costs and benefits of advanced composite primary airframe structure were studied to determine cost-effective applications to a civil STOL aircraft designed for introduction in the early 1980 time period. Applications were assessed by comparing costs and weights with a baseline metal aircraft which served as a basis of comparison throughout the study. Costs as well as weights were estimated from specific designs of principal airframe components, thus establishing a cost-data base for the study. Cost effectiveness was judged by an analysis that compared direct operating costs and return on investment of the composite and baseline aircraft. A systems operations analysis was performed to judge effects of the smaller, lighter composite aircraft. It was determined that broad applications of advanced composites to the airframe considered could be cost-effective, but this advantage is strongly influenced by structural configuration and several key cost categories.

Logan, T. R.↗