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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12

Closed-loop additive manufacturing of upcycled commodity plastic through dynamic cross-linking

A sustainable closed-loop manufacturing would become reality if commodity plastics can be upcycled into higher-performance materials with facile processability. Such circularity will be realized when the upcycled plastics can be (re)processed into custom-designed structures through energy/resource-efficient additive manufacturing methods, especially by approachable and scalable fused filament fabrication (FFF). Here, we introduce a circular model epitomized by upcycling a prominent thermoplastic, acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) into a recyclable, robust adaptive dynamic covalent network (ABS-vitrimer) (re)printable via FFF. The full FFF processing of ABS-vitrimer overcomes the major challenge of (re)printing cross-linked materials and produces stronger, tougher, solvent-resistant three-dimensional objects directly reprintable and separable from unsorted plastic waste. This study thus offers an imminently adoptable approach for advanced manufacturing toward the circular plastics economy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Role of Innovation in the Electric Utility Sector

Innovation is essential for future power systems to be safe and secure, clean and sustainable, affordable and equitable, and reliable and resilient, according to a recent National Academies report. But state regulatory reforms are needed to encourage adoption of new technologies to support evolution of the nation’s power systems.1 Berkeley Lab's report, The Role of Innovation in the Electric Utility Sector, provides consumer, labor, utility, third-party provider, and clean technology consultant perspectives on this theme. To achieve state targets for clean energy and greenhouse gas emissions, some state regulatory utility commissions are exploring new approaches to spur innovation: -For utilities, regulatory and marketing flexibility, increased funding for demonstration projects, and performance-based ratemaking including multi-year rate plans -For third parties, ways to provide utility customers with innovative products and services directly Among the questions the report addresses: 1. How are consumer advocate views evolving with respect to innovative regulatory and ratemaking approaches? 2. How can utility decarbonization and grid modernization initiatives provide opportunities for local communities and workers to receive tangible benefits and facilitate community support for siting electricity infrastructure? 3. How are electric utilities partnering with technology companies to provide innovative energy management services and sustainable energy solutions for utility customers? 4. What regulatory innovations are public utility commissions exploring to enable third-party providers to participate in the transition to a modern electric system? 5. What regulatory changes are needed to enable innovative solutions from utilities and third parties at the necessary speed and scale to meet state decarbonization goals? The report is the 13th in the Future Electric Utility Regulation series, which taps leading thinkers to tackle complex regulatory issues for electricity. 1 National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2021. The Future of Electric Power in the United States. The National Academies Press.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Preliminary Kinetic Analysis of Non-Equilibrium Plasma- Assisted Methanol Pyrolysis and Oxidation Experiments

Efforts to enhance power generation efficiency and reduce emissions have driven interest in novel combustion techniques, including non-equilibrium plasma (NEP) ignitors. NEP ignitors show promise in improving energy conversion efficiency, fuel reforming, emission control, and lean-flammability limits. However, their adoption is hindered by a limited understanding of the interplay between plasma-enhanced combustion and thermal chemistry, particularly for complex fuels under engine-relevant conditions. Developing experimentally validated kinetic mechanisms is therefore critical. Additionally, the increasing interest in renewable biofuels like ethanol and methanol, coupled with the desirable qualities of NEP ignitors, presents a compelling opportunity for study. Therefore, this work acts as an extension of a previous work (Bopaiah et al., 2023) pertaining to the experimental results of NEP-assisted methanol pyrolysis and oxidation. Experiments were performed with a custom-built plasma flow reactor at 0.5 atm and temperatures from 523-1203 K. All reactive mixtures are extremely diluted to minimize exothermicity due to reactivity, allowing isothermal assumptions and the isolation of plasma chemistry from thermal chemistry. A dielectric barrier discharge plasma, at 14 kV and 15 ns full-width half maximum, was applied to the reactive mixture at varying frequencies to maintain the number of pulses with increasing temperature. Steady-state product speciation was performed downstream of the reactor with ex-situ GC/MS diagnostics. The attained experimental results were examined through in-depth analysis performed by means of an in-development plasma-coupled kinetic mechanism. As discussed in the previous work, the plasma significantly accelerates methanol pyrolysis, increasing stable intermediate production, including oxygenated and nitrile species. Plasma-assisted oxidation shows even faster fuel consumption compared to pyrolysis and a 200 K ignition shift compared to thermal oxidation. For plasma-assisted pyrolysis, the model demonstrates that accelerated fuel consumption stems from dissociative quenching of excited N2 states with fuel and H2, generating H radicals that react to rapidly form CH3 and CH2OH radicals. At low temperatures, these radicals recombine to produce oxygenates, while CH3 drives nitrile and hydrocarbon formation at higher temperatures. While the model captures pyrolysis trends well, discrepancies in methane, ethylene, and ethanol predictions are present. Similarly, the model faces challenges in accurately representing plasma-assisted oxidation, predicting a much steeper fuel gradient and ignition 100 K earlier than the experiment. While a similar scheme to pyrolysis is nested in the reaction pathway, the enhancement of the O and H radical fluxes and their initiation of the OH and HO2 radical pools dominate fuel and intermediate oxidation. The overestimation of these processes is shown to be responsible for the divergence of model from experiment. While the modelling predictions of this preliminary mechanism are not perfect, they serve as a valuable starting point. Primarily, they elicited new reaction pathways that are not otherwise possible in thermal chemistry induced reaction kinetics. The results also provide a basis for the future work that should be performed. For example, theoretical and experimental studies on excited nitrogen species and fuel/fuel radical interactions, quantification of the NOx production, and the kinetics behind the slow ignition observed in oxidation should be emphasized.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Securing Vehicle Charging Infrastructure

As the US electrifies the transportation sector, cyber attacks targeting vehicle charging could bring consequences to electrical system infrastructure. This is a growing area of concern as charging stations increase power delivery and must communicate to a range of entities to authorize charging, sequence the charging process, and manage load (grid operators, vehicles, OEM vendors, charging network operators, etc.). The research challenges are numerous and are complicated because there are many end users, stakeholders, and software and equipment vendors interests involved. Poorly implemented electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE), electric vehicle (EV), or grid communication system cybersecurity could be a significant risk to EV adoption because the political, social, and financial impact of cyberattacks - or public perception of such - ripples across the industry and has lasting and devastating effects. Unfortunately, there is no comprehensive EVSE cybersecurity approach and limited best practices have been adopted by the EV/EVSE industry. There is an incomplete industry understanding of the attack surface, interconnected assets, and unsecured interfaces. Thus, comprehensive cybersecurity recommendations founded on sound research are necessary to secure EV charging infrastructure. This project is providing the power, security, and automotive industry with a strong technical basis for securing this infrastructure by developing threat models, determining technology gaps, and identifying or developing effective countermeasures. Specifically, the team is creating a cybersecurity threat model and performing a technical risk assessment of EVSE assets, so that automotive, charging, and utility stakeholders can better protect customers, vehicles, and power systems in the face of new cyber threats.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

California Energy Systems for the 21st Century (CES-21) Program, CRADA TC02200 (Final Report)

The following report representsthe culmination of a five-year Cybersecurity Research and Development (R&D) program performed by California’s Investor-Owned Utilities (IOUs) and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and funded by the IOUs’ electricity ratepayers as authorized by California Legislation and the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC). The cybersecurity R&D, which was intensely technical in nature, was broken into three major workstreams: 1. The development of a modeling & simulation platform, to explore the potential effects of various threat and response scenarios at grid scale; 2. The establishment of a physical testbed with separate substation instances from each of the IOUs, to evaluate threats and responses on actual substation equipment; 3. The development of a research package consisting of several capabilities to support the industry’s evolution towards automated threat response and other next-generation cybersecurity techniques Throughout the program, there was extensive collaboration between the program team and national laboratories, federal departments, academic institutions and industry organizations. Several of the tools developed through the program have been made available to the open source community, to enable faster adoption and continued development of important cybersecurity capabilities. While this program began to develop much of the foundation for automated threat response, much work remains to be done, and this report recommends a series of next steps. While the Executive Summary below has been simplified as much as possible, the very technical nature of the subject matter would make further reduction difficult without causing meaning to be lost. Due to the sensitive nature of the research, some topics are intentionally covered at a high level to protect the research and therefore the electric grid and customers of California and the Nation. For further detail, clarification or questions we suggest discussion with the program team.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Structural characterization and computational analysis of PDZ domains in Monosiga brevicollis

Abstract Identification of the molecular networks that facilitated the evolution of multicellular animals from their unicellular ancestors is a fundamental problem in evolutionary cellular biology. Choanoflagellates are recognized as the closest extant nonmetazoan ancestors to animals. These unicellular eukaryotes can adopt a multicellular‐like “rosette” state. Therefore, they are compelling models for the study of early multicellularity. Comparative studies revealed that a number of putative human orthologs are present in choanoflagellate genomes, suggesting that a subset of these genes were necessary for the emergence of multicellularity. However, previous work is largely based on sequence alignments alone, which does not confirm structural nor functional similarity. Here, we focus on the PDZ domain, a peptide‐binding domain which plays critical roles in myriad cellular signaling networks and which underwent a gene family expansion in metazoan lineages. Using a customized sequence similarity search algorithm, we identified 178 PDZ domains in the Monosiga brevicollis proteome. This includes 11 previously unidentified sequences, which we analyzed using Rosetta and homology modeling. To assess conservation of protein structure, we solved high‐resolution crystal structures of representative M. brevicollis PDZ domains that are homologous to human Dlg1 PDZ2, Dlg1 PDZ3, GIPC, and SHANK1 PDZ domains. To assess functional conservation, we calculated binding affinities for mbGIPC, mbSHANK1, mbSNX27, and mbDLG‐3 PDZ domains from M. brevicollis . Overall, we find that peptide selectivity is generally conserved between these two disparate organisms, with one possible exception, mbDLG‐3. Overall, our results provide novel insight into signaling pathways in a choanoflagellate model of primitive multicellularity.

Gao, Melody↗

Resilience of electric utilities during the COVID-19 pandemic in the framework of the CIGRE definition of Power System Resilience

Resilience is a vital concept in engineering, business, and natural sciences, and is a measure of the ability of an entity to withstand High Impact Low Probability (HILP) events. During the COVID-19 pandemic, which started in late 2019/early 2020, power system utilities around the globe have responded in effective and efficient ways to enhance the resilience of their organisations, both in terms of real-time operations and prudent management of its infrastructure, in order to continue their mandate in providing reliable supply to meet customer demands. Here, this paper presents the CIGRE definition for power system resilience, established by the C4.47 Working Group in 2018, and demonstrates the application of resilience-oriented thinking within the electrical sector. The response and recovery efforts are described, with respect to the key actionable measures integral to the power system resilience definition, taken before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. A practical conceptual framework is also presented for thinking about resilience in terms of three key components of resilience strategies: organisational, infrastructure and operational resilience. The paper also discusses the different strategies adopted in response to COVID-19, based on the C4.47 members’ experiences during the pandemic. Finally, a case study is presented, which proves the effectiveness of a set of response measures, using graph theory and the characteristics of the staff-asset interactions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Cybersecurity for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure

As the U.S. electrifies the transportation sector, cyberattacks targeting vehicle charging could impact several critical infrastructure sectors including power systems, manufacturing, medical services, and agriculture. This is a growing area of concern as charging stations increase power delivery capabilities and must communicate to authorize charging, sequence the charging process, and manage load (grid operators, vehicles, OEM vendors, charging network operators, etc.). The research challenges are numerous and complicated because there are many end users, stakeholders, and software and equipment vendors interests involved. Poorly implemented electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE), electric vehicle (EV), or grid operator communication systems could be a significant risk to EV adoption because the political, social, and financial impact of cyberattacks — or public perception of such — would ripple across the industry and produce lasting effects. Unfortunately, there is currently no comprehensive EVSE cybersecurity approach and limited best practices have been adopted by the EV/EVSE industry. There is an incomplete industry understanding of the attack surface, interconnected assets, and unsecured inter faces. Comprehensive cybersecurity recommendations founded on sound research are necessary to secure EV charging infrastructure. This project provided the power, security, and automotive industry with a strong technical basis for securing this infrastructure by developing threat models, determining technology gaps, and identifying or developing effective countermeasures. Specifically, the team created a cybersecurity threat model and performed a technical risk assessment of EVSE assets across multiple manufacturers and vendors, so that automotive, charging, and utility stakeholders could better protect customers, vehicles, and power systems in the face of new cyber threats.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Motivation and Design of the OCPP Security Service

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is conducting in-depth research aimed at exploring how zero trust security principles can be effectively applied to electric vehicle charging infrastructure. This investigation seeks to enhance the resilience and reliability of these systems against cyber threats, ensuring secure and uninterrupted access to charging services for electric vehicle users and electric supply. Zero trust is a security concept centered on the belief that system operators should not automatically trust users or systems based on their location, whether inside or outside the organization, but instead must verify everything trying to connect to their systems before granting access. A key aspect of the project is to demonstrate and validate zero trust approaches targeted to electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure. It has been observed that both open-source and commercial solutions often overlook the specific protocols employed in managing EV charging stations and proceeded with a general, protocol-agnostic approach. While these strategies effectively block non-authorized routes to the charging infrastructure, they do not tackle the situations where attackers may exploit legitimate access channels, such as the inattentive operator model posited by the Idaho National Laboratory. To address this gap, this paper proposes and discusses a new security service targeted to the Open Charge Point Protocol (OCPP), which is the de facto protocol for the management of charging stations and serves a critical role in the broader adoption of electric vehicles. The design and architecture of the proposed OCPP security service are discussed in detail, outlining how it aims to safeguard charging station management system (CSMS) functions. The service is particularly important in scenarios where the charging station operator (CSO), responsible for the maintenance and operation of charging stations, and the charging network provider (CNP), which manages the charging network's accessibility and billing, are separate entities. This distinction is crucial because CSOs and CNPs often have different priorities, objectives, and operational responsibilities, which may not always align perfectly. For instance, a CSO might prioritize uptime and customer satisfaction, while a CNP might focus on maximizing revenue and network utilization. Such misalignment can create security vulnerabilities, as each entity might implement different policies and standards, potentially leaving gaps in the overall security posture.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Addressing tokens dynamic generation, propagation, storage and renewal to secure the GlideinWMS pilot based jobs and system

GlideinWMS has been one of the first middleware in the WLCG community to transition from X.509 to support also tokens. The first step was to get from the prototype in 2019 to using tokens in production in 2022. This paper will present the challenges introduced by the wider adoption of tokens and the evolution plans for securing the pilot infrastructure of GlideinWMS and supporting the new requirements. In the last couple of years, the GlideinWMS team supported the migration to tokens of experiments and resources. Inadequate support in the current infrastructure, more stringent requirements, and the higher spatial and temporal granularity forced GlideinWMS to revisit once more how credentials are generated, used, and propagated. The new credential modules have been designed to be used in multiple systems (GWMS, HC) and use a model where credentials have type, purpose, and different flows. Credentials are dynamically generated in order to customize the duration and limit the scope to the targeted resource. This allows to enforce the least privilege principle. Finally, we also considered adding credential storage, renewal, and invalidation mechanisms within the GlideinWMS infrastructure to serve better the experiments’ needs.

Mambelli, Marco↗

Addressing tokens dynamic generation, propagation, storage and renewal to secure the GlideinWMS pilot based jobs and system

GlideinWMS has been one of the first middleware in the WLCG community to transition from X.509 to support also tokens. The first step was to get from the prototype in 2019 to using tokens in production in 2022. This paper will present the challenges introduced by the wider adoption of tokens and the evolution plans for securing the pilot infrastructure of GlideinWMS and supporting the new requirements. In the last couple of years, the GlideinWMS team supported the migration of experiments and resources to tokens. Inadequate support in the current infrastructure, more stringent requirements, and the higher spatial and temporal granularity forced GlideinWMS to revisit once more how credentials are generated, used, and propagated. The new credential modules have been designed to be used in multiple systems (GlideinWMS, HEPCloud) and use a model where credentials have type, purpose, and different flows. Credentials are dynamically generated in order to customize the duration and limit the scope to the targeted resource. This allows to enforce the least privilege principle. Finally, we also considered adding credential storage, renewal, and invalidation mechanisms within the GlideinWMS infrastructure to better serve the experiments' needs.

Coimbra, Bruno Moreira [Fermilab] (ORCID:000900022↗

Bounding the costs of electric vehicle managed charging—supply curves for scenarios from 2025 to 2050

As electric vehicle (EV) adoption increases, the resulting EV battery charging will increase demand on the electric power grid. Through EV managed charging (EVMC) programs, charging can be shifted in time to support electric grid reliability and reduce electricity costs. EVMC can offer an alternative to additional supply-side generation, but the costs of EVMC implementation must be understood to evaluate the cost-benefits of EVMC. This paper presents bottom-up, forward-looking (from 2025 through 2050) estimates of the incremental costs associated with different EVMC dispatch mechanisms available to electric utilities. The costs of enabling EVMC for a range of customer participation levels are presented in the form of supply curves, which provide per-EV costs for a targeted level of participation. The largest drivers of cost variation are assumptions about future charging flexibility paradigms described in four scenarios. These supply curves can be used to quantify the expected costs of EVMC programs and enable comparison with supply-side or other demand flexibility alternatives.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Using Machine Learning to Understand Electric and Hybrid Vehicles Ownership in Burdened and Nonburdened Communities

Transitioning to electric and hybrid vehicles (EHVs) for all communities is a pivotal step toward sustainable transportation and environmental conservation. This paper aims to understand the adoption of EHVs, focusing on burdened communities (BCs) in the United States. The EHV ownership-based analysis combines two datasets—behavioral data from the Puget Sound Regional Travel Survey integrated with BCs (Justice40) data covering transportation insecurity, environmental burden, social vulnerability, health vulnerability, and climate and disaster risk burden. After creating this unique database, descriptive analysis and modeling are used to analyze the data and predict EHV ownership in the future. Specifically, we use a new method that combines particle swarm optimization (PSO) with a stacking model named PSO-Stacking, which incorporates heterogeneous base learners of machine learning and deep learning. PSO applies a customized objective function to select the optimal hyperparameters for heterogeneous learners within the stacking model, effectively addressing challenges such as multicollinearity, data imbalance, nonlinearity, and overfitting. The proposed solution covers more accurate results than standard benchmark models for EHV ownership in BCs and non-BCs. In addition, the results of the PSO-Stacking method are explained using the local interpretable model-agnostic explanations technique. Results show a negative correlation between the BCs indicators, that is, higher transportation insecurity associated with lower EHV ownership. Furthermore, BCs have higher future climate risk scores, diesel particulate matter levels, and PM2.5 in the air than non-BCs because of higher conventional vehicle ownership. These communities are at higher risk and can benefit from electrification, EV infrastructure, and EV policies to address environmental challenges.

Aslam, Zeeshan [ORNL]↗

Agent-Based Coordination Scheme for PV Integration (ABC4PV)

Renewables and especially photovoltaics (PV) have benefitted significantly from a host of incentives and policies targeted toward enhanced integration and adoption of specific energy technologies. However, with the push to move forward into a subsidy-free market framework, behind-the-meter residential PV applications have generally struggled to retain their value (unlike utility scale and commercial projects) [1]. This project focused on developing control-theoretic solutions aimed at improving the integration and interaction of behind-the-meter residential PV with other distribution system assets (controllable and non-controllable) to enhance the integrated value of residential PV. To this end, a suite of decentralized control methodologies have been developed to enable effective coordination and control of behind-the-meter residential load customers’ PV, battery storage systems (BSS), controllable loads and other similar assets within a distribution feeder. This interaction aims at procuring energy savings and, thus, energy bill savings. The main source of savings is drawn from reducing the effect of demand charge pricing and is realized at the feeder level, assuming community level interaction and management among the aforementioned assets. Optimal control of the assets is implemented with a distributed optimization methodology, leveraging consensus-based algorithms. The results gathered from the optimal control simulations demonstrates that the savings can be duly achieved and the algorithm decision times (to dynamically control asset set points, for example) are fast. As for the overall efficiency of PV+BSS systems, to procure energy savings from curtailment of the demand charge pricing effects, the optimal control is set up so as to minimize the variance of the load for all customers, throughout a feeder and throughout time in a rolling horizon scheduling with model predictive control. The control takes into account inter-temporal electrochemical storage (battery) degradation costs: specifically, we have developed a long-term lifetime model for the BSS that weighs in the effect of the degradation factor in the dispatch formulations, thus, a considerable operating cost that affects energy decision making. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE – redefined for the purpose of quantifying asset integration effectiveness through the customers’ energy cost) is shown to be below the threshold set for the combined PV+BSS topology of $ 0.14/kWh for multiple cases of PV penetration all the way up to 50%, provided that a policy of shared ownership of and savings is in place. Further, the LCOE calculated for the case before the deployment PV+BSS systems is also achievable, i.e. the deployment of PV+BSS, if planned and scheduled optimally. will have no effect on customers’ energy costs. From the control methodology viewpoint, the developed consensus-based algorithms are shown to converge for a wide range of problem cases (spanning normal operating scenarios and contingencies), guaranteeing dispatch solutions under forecasting errors, communication break-downs and cyber-security attacks. The proposed control solutions are scalable and real-time implementable, with dispatch computations and device set-point updates converging in less than 2s in most practical instances of the above events.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

PLATFORM for Product Launch

Pecan Street Inc. (PSI) and its partners set out in 2017 to validate the PLATFORM for Product Launch, a new model for improving the effectiveness of investments in clean energy technologies and accelerating market entry of disruptive technologies. In partnership with a newly formed Innovation Advisory Council, PSI recruited fourteen companies with new hardware-based technologies that enable or create clean energy opportunities. Pecan Street carried out product evaluations and conducted market research with stakeholders and target customers to develop recommendations on product optimization opportunities for all companies, and created third party performance evaluation reports that include environmental metrics, such as water and energy savings potential, to assist in creating investment confidence and to unlock additional sources of funding, such as impact investments. Pecan Street set-up the product testing environment, performed small-batch field testing, and provided a verified third-party performance report on the product of twelve companies. PSI Street and its partners leveraged the performance evaluations and insights from the newly formed PRI toolkit to raise over $1.5M across five companies, and garner interest for private sector adoption of the PLATFORM for Product Launch.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Designing a drone delivery network with automated battery swapping machines

Drones are projected to alter last-mile delivery, but their short travel range is a concern. In this study, we propose a drone delivery network design using automated battery swapping machines (ABSMs) to extend ranges. The design minimizes the long-term delivery costs, including ABSM investment, drone ownership, and cost of the delivery time, and locates ABSMs to serve a set of customers. We build a mixed-integer nonlinear program that captures the nonlinear waiting time of drones at ABSMs. To solve the problem, we create an exact solution algorithm that finds the globally optimal solution using a derivative-supported cutting-plane method. To validate the applicability of our program, we conduct a case study on the Chicago Metropolitan area using cost data from leading ABSM manufacturer and geographical data from the planning and operations language for agent-based regional integrated simulation (more commonly known as POLARIS). A sensitivity analysis identifies that ABSM service times and costs are the key parameters impacting the long-term adoption of drone delivery.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Assessing the New Home Market Opportunity: Case Study and Cost Modeling for Solar and Storage in 2030

Residential solar and storage markets are growing in the United States. With approximately 1 million new homes constructed every year, this represents a significant opportunity for solar and storage installations. Some homebuilders have begun to build new homes with solar and storage included as a standard offering. It is not clear how solar and storage is incorporated into the new construction process and at what cost. Further, it is unclear what barriers or opportunities exist to scale this model nationwide. To fill this gap in the literature, this research conducts a case study of Mandalay Homes' new solar and storage community in Arizona to gather lessons learned. From this foundation, we further generate a set of pathways to reduce install costs and expand solar and storage market penetration in this sector. To model existing and 2030 solar and storage costs, we use the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) bottom-up cost model. This modeling is further informed by 12 interviews conducted with new home builders, solar contractors, and other subject matter expert organizations. Our case study analysis generated three key considerations for other homebuilders including: 1. Educating local permitting, inspection, and in some cases utility officials on solar and storage products, designs, and code compliant building practices may be required. The need for education may decline as more local governments and utilities review and approve solar and storage projects. 2. Incorporating solar and storage systems into the homebuilding process can add complexity and related coordination challenges. This does not need to result in home construction delays, but can result in costly contractor "dry runs" to construction sites. 3. Deploying solar and storage at the time of new construction has significant economies of scale, which can improve the value proposition of the systems. The case study, extant literature, and interviews were used to model both existing and future solar and storage installation costs at time of new construction. Here, we find three key cost reduction opportunities relating to solar and battery storage hardware, customer acquisition, and overhead. If future contractors can maximize the cost reduction opportunities outlined here, residential new construction costs could decline by 8 - 25% by 2030, depending on the modeled scenario. Though we expect costs to decline through 2030, it is unclear which of these scenarios may ultimately appear. Interviewees further identified a variety of barriers across each cost category that could temper the savings shown here. At the same time, interviewees described several pathways to scale the new construction solar and storage market, beyond installation cost savings. Interviewees confirmed that changes in finance, rate design, resilience policies, deployment mandates, and DER aggregation could all support more market adoption than seen today. These findings suggest that there are significant opportunities to expand new construction markets and this research can serve as a baseline to assess progress in this segment through 2030.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

ComStock Measure Documentation: Thermostat Setbacks During Unoccupied Periods

This report assesses the potential for nationwide adoption of thermostat setbacks in appropriate applications. Building on the 3-year End-Use Load Profiles project to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy’s ResStock™ and ComStock™ models, this work produces national datasets that enable cities, states, utilities, and other stakeholders to answer a broad range of questions regarding their commercial building stock. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses various data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual sub-hourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The “baseline” model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology of the baseline model is discussed in the ComStock Reference Documentation. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency and demand flexibility measures that cover market-ready technologies and study their mass-adoption impact on the baseline building stock. “Measures” refers to various “what-if” scenarios that can be applied to buildings. The results for the baseline and measure scenario simulations are published in public datasets that provide insights into building stock characteristics, operational behaviors, utility bill impacts, and annual and sub-hourly energy usage by fuel type and end use. This report describes the modeling methodology for a single ComStock measure scenario— Thermostat Setbacks During Unoccupied Periods—and briefly introduces key results. The full public dataset can be accessed on the ComStock data lake or via the Data Viewer at comstock.nrel.gov. The public dataset enables users to create custom aggregations of results for their use cases (e.g., filter to a specific county or building type).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗