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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12

Enabling machine learning-ready HPC ensembles with Merlin

With the growing complexity of computational and experimental facilities, many scientific researchers are turning to machine learning (ML) techniques to analyze large scale ensemble data. With complexities such as multi-component workflows, heterogeneous machine architectures, parallel file systems, and batch scheduling, care must be taken to facilitate this analysis in a high performance computing (HPC) environment. Here, we present Merlin, a workflow framework to enable large ML-friendly ensembles of scientific HPC simulations. By augmenting traditional HPC with distributed compute technologies, Merlin aims to lower the barrier for scientific subject matter experts to incorporate ML into their analysis. As a producer–consumer workflow model, Merlin enables multi-machine, cross-batch job, dynamically allocated yet persistent workflows capable of utilizing surge-compute resources. Key features of Merlin are a flexible HPC-centric interface, low per-task overhead, multi-tiered fault recovery, and a hierarchical sampling algorithm that allows for $\mathscr{O}$(N) task execution and $\mathscr{O}$(N ln N) task queuing to ensembles of millions of tasks. In addition to Merlin’s design, we test the algorithm’s performance in an HPC center and demonstrate the ability to enqueue 40 million simulations in 100 s, with a 30 millisecond per-task overhead that is independent of ensemble size. Finally, we describe some example applications that Merlin has enabled on leadership-class HPC resources, such as the ML-augmented optimization of nuclear fusion experiments and the calibration of infectious disease models to study the progression of and possible mitigation strategies for COVID-19.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Time-series forecasting using manifold learning, radial basis function interpolation, and geometric harmonics

We address a three-tier numerical framework based on nonlinear manifold learning for the forecasting of high-dimensional time series, relaxing the “curse of dimensionality” related to the training phase of surrogate/machine learning models. At the first step, we embed the high-dimensional time series into a reduced low-dimensional space using nonlinear manifold learning (local linear embedding and parsimonious diffusion maps). Then, we construct reduced-order surrogate models on the manifold (here, for our illustrations, we used multivariate autoregressive and Gaussian process regression models) to forecast the embedded dynamics. Finally, we solve the pre-image problem, thus lifting the embedded time series back to the original high-dimensional space using radial basis function interpolation and geometric harmonics. The proposed numerical data-driven scheme can also be applied as a reduced-order model procedure for the numerical solution/propagation of the (transient) dynamics of partial differential equations (PDEs). In conclusion, we assess the performance of the proposed scheme via three different families of problems: (a) the forecasting of synthetic time series generated by three simplistic linear and weakly nonlinear stochastic models resembling electroencephalography signals, (b) the prediction/propagation of the solution profiles of a linear parabolic PDE and the Brusselator model (a set of two nonlinear parabolic PDEs), and (c) the forecasting of a real-world data set containing daily time series of ten key foreign exchange rates spanning the time period 3 September 2001–29 October 2020.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Mission interactive scenarion studio for autonomous spacecraft

We propose building a Studio enabling the use of diverse existing mission activity and scenario patterns, the creation of new ones, and the modeling of their effects using existing modeling tools. The core of the Studio is a component-based Type Library, which captures years of mission adaptation patterns in various forms. The Studio works as a content server to capture the developed adaptation knowledge for reuse and provides bridging into different mission uplink implementations, including the Mission Data System [l] (MDS) state/goal machinery. Various activities can be coordinated, controlled, and reused through the Studio's component interface to establish and model a mission scenario. A special component Factory mechanism will be in place to facilitate the adaptation of projects into the Studio. The architecture of the Studio reflects and enforces a division of knowledge and actions into three parts: Model, Controller, Viewer. The Model contains information about (a proposed version of) the spacecraft and mission. The Controller contains logic for constructing scenarios of mission activities. The information in the Model and Controller is principally in the form of reusable patterns. A Viewer can be a simple or complex software system. For example, Apgen [2,3] is one possible viewer, MDS is another. A 3-tiered infrastructure is used for the Studio, reflecting the Model, Controller, Viewer architecture [4,5]. The Studio is useful in pre-phase A of a project by enabling spacecraft design options to be played against desired mission scenarios. In later design phases of a project, the construction and modeling of more detailed scenarios is supported by the Studio.

autonomous spacecraft↗

Harnessing Synthetic Communities and Microbial Recycling of Space Waste Streams for Biomanufacturing Applications

The long-term habitation of extraterrestrial environments such as the Moon or Mars presents significant challenges including supplying materials to sustain life. Off-world recycling of waste materials into biomanufacturer products may ameliorate this. Current literature highlights the need for efficient waste recycling systems to support the bioproduction of essential materials including foods, pharmaceuticals, and biomaterials. The study herein concerns itself with the investigation of three key aspects: 1) formulating an optimal wastewater media on which to grow recombinant microbes for bioproduction in space, 2) examining the potential for constructing stable and metabolically synergistic synthetic microbial communities for largescale and multi-tiered biomanufacturing, and 3) testing the efficacy of one such bioengineered enzyme, cutinase, on the degradation of PET plastics characteristic of those found in ISS waste as a model for recombinant recycling-based biomanufacturing of mission-critical substrates. Formulation of an optimal wastewater media involved growing several microorganisms on mixtures of synthetic planetary wastes representative of those found in space waste systems, combined with simple carbon sources derived from a physio-chemical CO conversion system to determine their growth potential. Potential synthetic microbial communities were conceptually designed, and their stability and metabolic synergism was evaluated within the context of co-cultures. Cutinase activity assays were utilized to determine the efficacy of bioengineered cutinase on PET plastic degradation. Findings will contribute to optimization of wastewater-based media formulations, data on stable synthetic microbial communities for bioproduction, and effective methods for measuring cutinase-based PET plastic degradation. These outcomes support the development of sustainable waste recycling systems for space habitation and aim to fill gaps in the current literature and proposing innovative solutions for waste recycling in space environments. By leveraging synthetic biology this study seeks to enhance the feasibility of long-term extraterrestrial habitation through sustainable resource management.

Bioprocessing↗

Journey Over Destination: Differentiable Sensor Placement Enhances Generalization [Poster]

The challenge of reconstructing spatial fields that change over time from limited sensor data has been a focal point for many research studies. Various machine learning methods have been used in attempts to address this complex issue, including convolutional neural networks. All of the proposed methods share a common requirement that the user needs to manually determine the sensor positions. This requirement remains a limiting factor in the ongoing quest for efficient learning and accurate field reconstruction. This study aims to present a method that enables a model to optimize sensor positions via backpropagation, thereby facilitating the model’s exploration of the spatial domain and enhancing sensor positioning effectively. Indexing naturally incorporates discrete decisions. This operation is nondifferentiable which is a requirement for the application of gradient-based optimization methods. We showcased its effectiveness by training an attention-based neural network, which achieved top-tier performance on two separate datasets. To our knowledge, this represents the first fully end-to-end differentiable workflow for enhancing sensor placement within a neural network model.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Cassini Archive Tracking System

The Cassini Archive Tracking System (CATS) is a computer program that enables tracking of scientific data transfers from originators to the Planetary Data System (PDS) archives. Without CATS, there is no systematic means of locating products in the archive process or ensuring their completeness. By keeping a database of transfer communications and status, CATS enables the Cassini Project and the PDS to efficiently and accurately report on archive status. More importantly, problem areas are easily identified through customized reports that can be generated on the fly from any Web-enabled computer. A Web-browser interface and clearly defined authorization scheme provide safe distributed access to the system, where users can perform functions such as create customized reports, record a transfer, and respond to a transfer. CATS ensures that Cassini provides complete science archives to the PDS on schedule and that those archives are available to the science community by the PDS. The three-tier architecture is loosely coupled and designed for simple adaptation to multimission use. Written in the Java programming language, it is portable and can be run on any Java-enabled Web server.

Conner, Diane↗

Using leaf and stomatal traits to predict biomass production and water use efficiency in Populus

Climate change is reshaping ecosystems, driving plants to adapt through leaf-trait plasticity that reflects strategies for growth and water use. Predicting biomass production and intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) remains challenging because of genetic, taxonomic, and environmental variability. Here, we used eastern cottonwood and Populus hybrids as a model system to test whether easily measurable leaf traits can serve as reliable predictors of performance, and whether adding stomatal and biochemical traits improves predictive power. Across two field sites in Mississippi, leaf mass per area (LMA), biomass production, iWUE, leaf area, and foliar nitrogen ( N %) differed significantly among taxa and sites, while other traits were conserved. Factorial analysis of mixed data (FAMD) revealed distinct clustering of taxa and sites, indicating coordinated variation among leaf and stomatal traits. Pairwise correlations highlighted fundamental trade-offs, with biomass positively related to LMA and petiole length but negatively associated with iWUE, N %, and carbon isotopic ratios (δ 13 C). Leaf temperature and leaf angle varied among taxa and were significantly correlated with LMA and petiole length, suggesting mechanisms of heat dissipation and leaf movability that link simple traits to gas exchange and productivity. Weighted multiple linear regression models explained 80%–91% of variation in biomass production and iWUE. Models using only LMA, petiole length, and stomatal metrics performed nearly as well as those incorporating N %, and δ 13 C, with complex traits adding approximately 10% explanatory power. These results demonstrate that simple morphological traits capture integrated functional trade-offs, while complex traits refine predictions. This tiered approach provides an efficient framework for selecting high-yielding, water-efficient genotypes of Populus and other hardwood species, offering practical pathways to enhance carbon uptake and iWUE under climate change.

biomass production↗

A Hybrid Heavy Duty Diesel Power System for Off-Road Applications—Concept Validation

A multiyear power system R&D program was completed with the objective of developing an off-road hybrid heavy duty diesel engine with front end accessory drive-integrated energy storage. This system was validated to deliver 10.5–25.6% reduction in fuel consumption over current Tier 4 Final-based 18L diesel engines, over various off-road machine application cycles. The power system consisted of a downsized heavy-duty diesel 13L engine containing advanced combustion technologies, capable of elevated peak cylinder pressures and thermal efficiencies, thermal barrier coatings, exhaust waste heat recovery via SuperTurbo™ turbocompounding, and hybrid energy assisting and recovery through both mechanical and electrical systems. Following the concept definition, design, and analysis phases of the program, the final phase focused on building and validating the performance and efficiency in laboratory tests. While aspects of the system such as start/stop and reduced off-road cooling package energy losses were only analytically evaluated, the main 13L concept engine with full hybrid system was successfully built and tested in steady-state and in transient certification and real-world application cycles. Extensive simulations in Caterpillar's DYNASTY™ software environment utilized the validation test data to assess performance more fully and confidently over varied cycles and strategies. An average fuel consumption reduction of 17.9% was realized, and the majority (~13%) of the benefit stemmed from the core concept 13L engine. In conclusion, a total cost of ownership analysis provides context to commercial viability and where adoption focus should be placed.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Is There A Relationship Between Cornered-Hat Methods and A Residual Approach to Estimate System Uncertainty?

Recently a relationship has been established between a now traditional residual diagnostic used to estimate observation, background and analysis error covariances of interest to data assimilation and the three-cornered hat (3CH) method. An existing extension of the traditional residual diagnostic uses residuals from a fixed lag-1 Kalman smoother to retrieve system (model) error covariance. It is thus natural to ask if an additional relationship can be established between this extended residual method and some form of cornered--hat method. The answer might seem straightforward. Unlike in the standard residual estimation case, attempting to estimate model error amounts to estimating the statistics of a residual quantity itself. As shown in this presentation, in such cases the 3CH method becomes trivial: the sought out uncertainty can be derived directly from the covariance of the residual quantity at hand. In the particular case of estimating model error, one of the corners would have to be composed of vectors providing estimates of model error; these are not typically available in practice. Therefore, at first glance the present work finds no relationship between the lag-1 smoother residual diagnostic for system error estimation and cornered--hat methods. However, the work suggests that a two-tiered 3CH might be all that is necessary for system uncertainty to be obtained with 3CH.

Ricardo Todling↗

Applicability of Electrical and Electroanalytical Techniques to Detect Water and Characterize the Geochemistry of Undisturbed Planetary Soils

The search for life is a primary goal of NASA s planetary exploration program. The search is, of necessity, tiered in both the detection approach (looking for evidence of microbial fossils or the presence of water in the geological history of a planetary body and/or looking for evidence of water, energy sources, precursors to life, signatures of life and/or life itself in the present day planetary environment) and in the survey method (scale, range, specificity) employed. Terrestrial investigations suggests that life as we know it requires water. Thus, the search for extant microbial life and habitats requires identifying water-bearing soils. Determining Reduction-Oxidation (REDOX) couples present in water, once it is found, provides information on soil geochemistry and identifies potential chemical energy sources for life. Mars offers a near-term target for conducting this search. The identification of gully formation [1], layered deposits [2] and elemental ratios of bromine and chlorine [3] present indirect evidence that water was abundant locally in the Martian past. Additionally, Viking images of polar ice and frost formation on the surface of Mars demonstrate that water can exist in at least some near-surface regions of present-day Mars. Atmospheric pressure data further suggest that liquid water may be stable for short periods of time in the mid-latitudes of the Martian surface. [4] Measurements of the global distribution of hydrogen in the Martian regolith offer tantalizing indirect evidence that water may at least exist in near-surface soils. [5] Evidently, any water to be found is likely to exist as soil mixtures at levels ranging between approx.0.5% and approx.5 %.

Seshadri, S.↗

The Integrated Safety-Critical Advanced Avionics Communication and Control (ISAACC) System Concept: Infrastructure for ISHM

Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) architectures for spacecraft will include hard real-time, critical subsystems and soft real-time monitoring subsystems. Interaction between these subsystems will be necessary and an architecture supporting multiple criticality levels will be required. Demonstration hardware for the Integrated Safety-Critical Advanced Avionics Communication & Control (ISAACC) system has been developed at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. It is a modular system using a commercially available time-triggered protocol, ?Tp/C, that supports hard real-time distributed control systems independent of the data transmission medium. The protocol is implemented in hardware and provides guaranteed low-latency messaging with inherent fault-tolerance and fault-containment. Interoperability between modules and systems of modules using the TTP/C is guaranteed through definition of messages and the precise message schedule implemented by the master-less Time Division Multiple Access (TDMA) communications protocol. "Plug-and-play" capability for sensors and actuators provides automatically configurable modules supporting sensor recalibration and control algorithm re-tuning without software modification. Modular components of controlled physical system(s) critical to control algorithm tuning, such as pumps or valve components in an engine, can be replaced or upgraded as "plug and play" components without modification to the ISAACC module hardware or software. ISAACC modules can communicate with other vehicle subsystems through time-triggered protocols or other communications protocols implemented over Ethernet, MIL-STD- 1553 and RS-485/422. Other communication bus physical layers and protocols can be included as required. In this way, the ISAACC modules can be part of a system-of-systems in a vehicle with multi-tier subsystems of varying criticality. The goal of the ISAACC architecture development is control and monitoring of safety critical systems of a manned spacecraft. These systems include spacecraft navigation and attitude control, propulsion, automated docking, vehicle health management and life support. ISAACC can integrate local critical subsystem health management with subsystems performing long term health monitoring. The ISAACC system and its relationship to ISHM will be presented.

Gwaltney, David A.↗

Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate: results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4)

The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the midHolocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6°C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka. New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model–data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions. The CMIP6–Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve our confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, and Arctic sea ice, thus providing a key target for model evaluation and optimization.

Last Interglacial climate↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-Bar Bartlett Experimental Forest

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Bar Bartlett Experimental Forest. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Bar Bartlett Experimental Forest produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - The Bartlett Experimental Forest (448170 N, 71830 W) is located within the White Mountains National Forest in north-central New Hampshire, USA. The 1050 ha forest extends across an elevational range from 200 to 900 m a.s.l. It was established in 1931 and is managed by the USDA Forest Service Northeastern Research Station in Durham, NH. The climate is humid continental with short, cool summers (mean July temperature, 19.8C) and long, cold winters (mean January temperature, 9.8C). Annual precipitation averages 130 cm and is distributed evenly throughout the year. Soils are developed from glacial till and are predominantly shallow, well-drained spodosols. At lowto mid-elevation, vegetation is dominated by northern hardwoods (American beech, Fagus grandifolia; sugar maple, Acer saccharum; yellow birch, Betula alleghaniensis; with some red maple, Acer rubrum and paper birch, Betula papyrifera). Conifers (eastern hemlock, Tsuga canadensis; eastern white pine, Pinus strobus; red spruce, Picea rubens) are occasionally found intermixed with the more abundant deciduous species but are generally confined to the highest (red spruce) and lowest (hemlock and pine) elevations. In 2003, the site was adopted as a NASA North American Carbon Program (NACP) Tier-2 field research and validation site. A 26.5 m high tower was installed in a low-elevation northern hardwood stand in November, 2003, for the purpose of making eddy covariance measurements of the forest–atmosphere exchange of CO2, H2O and radiant energy. Continuous flux and meteorological measurements began in January, 2004, and are ongoing. Average canopy height in the vicinity of the tower is approximately 20–22 m. In the tower footprint, the forest is predominantly classified into red maple, sugar maple, and American beech forest types. Leaf area index in the vicinity of the tower is 3.6 as measured by seasonal litterfall collection, and 4.5 as measured by the optically based Li-Cor LAI-2000 instrument. Further site information: http://www.fs.fed.us/ne/durham/4155/bartlett.htm

Richardson, Andrew↗

Braided Carbon Fiber Rope Flow Characteristics

I am submitting the following technical subject for consideration as a thesis topic for the master degree: The reusable solid rocket motor (RSRM) nozzle internal joints are being evaluated for the incorporation of a carbon fiber rope (CFR) as a thermal barrier. The CFR is approximately 0.260 in. diameter and is composed of approximately 12,000 carbon fibers, woven in ten sheaths or layers. The CFR is manufactured by a sub-tier vendor and subsequently several of its manufacturing details are proprietary to that vendor. The CFR design intent is to prevent hot motor combustion products and slag from intruding into the joint scaling area while still approaching a vented joint design to avoid the detriments of gas jet impingement. As a member of the Heat Transfer section at Thiokol Propulsion, two main goals exist as part of this NASA funded design effort: (1) development of flow model through the CFR and (2) development of a heat transfer model through the CFR. While both models are needed and most probably interrelated, the gas flow model is being targeted as the subject matter. Essentially, the topic would be "Modeling of Gas Flow through a Braided Carbon Fiber Rope". An AIAA journal or conference paper is being considered through Thiokol/NASA as well. A sub-scale CFR flow test fixture was designed to simulate the relative levels of CFR compression. The test fixture provides the means to measure gas mass flow rate upstream of the CFR and the pressure and temperature both upstream and downstream of the CFR. The test fixture was designed to eliminate the possibility of dynamic gapping at the CFR location and provide minimal flow resistance to ambient for gases exiting the rope. The data collected in the experiment will be evaluated to define a permeability/flow resistance model. Two possibilities exist for the flow characteristics through the CFR from choked flow to strictly friction driven. A test matrix for evaluating the CFR has been compiled, which addresses both of these characteristics. The range of pressures to be tested covers a relatively low delta pressure where non-choked flow is impossible, while the high pressure shown is dictated by the RSRM joint operating pressure where choking is possible. The test matrix, was also designed for a range of rope compressions or test fixture gaps ranging from 0.025" to 0.070". These gaps are controlled by the range of RSRM full-scale hardware joint gaps that will be expected by virtue of the joint design.

Heman, J. R. C.↗

CERESMIP: a climate modeling protocol to investigate recent trends in the Earth's Energy Imbalance

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has now produced over two decades of observed data on the Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) and has revealed substantive trends in both the reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave top-of-atmosphere radiation components. Available climate model simulations suggest that these trends are incompatible with purely internal variability, but that the full magnitude and breakdown of the trends are outside of the model ranges. Unfortunately, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) (CMIP6) protocol only uses observed forcings to 2014 (and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) projections thereafter), and furthermore, many of the ‘observed' drivers have been updated substantially since the CMIP6 inputs were defined. Most notably, the sea surface temperature (SST) estimates have been revised and now show up to 50% greater trends since 1979, particularly in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, estimates of short-lived aerosol and gas-phase emissions have been substantially updated. These revisions will likely have material impacts on the model-simulated EEI. We therefore propose a new, relatively low-cost, model intercomparison, CERESMIP, that would target the CERES period (2000-present), with updated forcings to at least the end of 2021. The focus will be on atmosphere-only simulations, using updated SST, forcings and emissions from 1990 to 2021. The key metrics of interest will be the EEI and atmospheric feedbacks, and so the analysis will benefit from output from satellite cloud observation simulators. The Tier 1 request would consist only of an ensemble of AMIP-style simulations, while the Tier 2 request would encompass uncertainties in the applied forcing, atmospheric composition, single and all-but-one forcing responses. We present some preliminary results and invite participation from a wide group of models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CERESMIP: A Climate Modeling Protocol to Investigate Recent Trends in the Earth's Energy Imbalance

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has now produced over two decades of observed data on the Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) and has revealed substantive trends in both the reflected shortwave and outgoing longwave top-of-atmosphere radiation components. Available climate model simulations suggest that these trends are incompatible with purely internal variability, but that the full magnitude and breakdown of the trends are outside of the model ranges. Unfortunately, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) (CMIP6) protocol only uses observed forcings to 2014 (and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) projections thereafter), and furthermore, many of the ‘observed' drivers have been updated substantially since the CMIP6 inputs were defined. Most notably, the sea surface temperature (SST) estimates have been revised and now show up to 50% greater trends since 1979, particularly in the southern hemisphere. Additionally, estimates of short-lived aerosol and gas-phase emissions have been substantially updated. These revisions will likely have material impacts on the model-simulated EEI. We therefore propose a new, relatively low-cost, model intercomparison, CERESMIP, that would target the CERES period (2000-present), with updated forcings to at least the end of 2021. The focus will be on atmosphere-only simulations, using updated SST, forcings and emissions from 1990 to 2021. The key metrics of interest will be the EEI and atmospheric feedbacks, and so the analysis will benefit from output from satellite cloud observation simulators. The Tier 1 request would consist only of an ensemble of AMIP-style simulations, while the Tier 2 request would encompass uncertainties in the applied forcing, atmospheric composition, single and all-but-one forcing responses. We present some preliminary results and invite participation from a wide group of models.

CMIP6↗

First-Principles Cost Estimation of a Sodium Fast Reactor Nuclear Plant

A multi-tiered cost analysis is performed to estimate full costs of a nuclear power plant (NPP) based on sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) technology. To address the lack of fully transparent cost estimations from past undertakings for NPPs, we have developed a detailed and first-principles-based cost estimate for a generalized SFR NPP. Our intent is to achieve a high degree of transparency with our cost assumptions and develop a cost model that is flexible and easily extendable to variations in NPP design and other nuclear reactor types. Furthermore, we strive to achieve a clear organization of costs and complete identification of key cost drivers based on first principles. To this end, the cost results of our analysis as given in Table 24 and Table 25 are organized and categorized into a code of accounts (COA) under development at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Varying degrees of first-principles methods are employed, such as design for manufacture and assembly® (DFMA® ), to elucidate costs in all process levels of the plant equipment, buildings and site structures, personnel, and other miscellaneous but significant cost elements. These approaches have been successfully applied in past cost analysis projects and are designed to enable rapid and flexible cost estimation. Application of these techniques for evaluating NPP costs is similar in concept to the full, detailed estimation of construction and fabrication costs determined in a later stage of NPP development. Note that our approach tries to avoid use of other past analysis results and data such as those from the legacy Energy Economic Data Base (EEDB) Program, as these resources are based on historical NPP costs and thus may not be indicative of new reactor technologies or construction and fabrication/manufacturing techniques. However, we provide a comparison of our SFR NPP cost results in Table 90 against those included in the EEDB for a representative pressurized water reactor (PWR).

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

U.S. Renewables Portfolio Standards 2021 Status Update: Early Release

Berkeley Lab’s annual status report on U.S. renewables portfolio standards (RPS) provides an overview of key trends associated with U.S. state RPS policies. The report, published in slide-deck form, describes recent legislative revisions, key policy design features, compliance with interim targets, past and projected impacts on renewables development, and compliance costs. The 2021 Early Release, published in lieu of a 2020 edition, presents historical data through year-end 2019, with some limited results for the year 2020. Key trends from this edition of the report include the following: Evolution of state RPS programs: States continue to refine and revise their RPS policies. Among other significant changes since the start of 2019, eight states enacted higher RPS targets or created new clean-energy/zero-carbon targets (AZ, DC, MD, NM, NV, VA, WA), in most cases setting targets equal to at least 50% of retail sales. Historical impacts on renewables development: Roughly half of all growth in U.S. renewable electricity (RE) generation and capacity since 2000 is associated with state RPS requirements, though that percentage has declined in recent years, representing 23% of all U.S. RE capacity additions in 2019. However, within particular regions-namely, the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic-RPS policies continue to serve a central role in motivating RE growth. Future RPS demand and incremental needs: RPS demand growth through 2030 will require roughly 90 GW of new RE capacity and will require total U.S. non-hydro RE generation to reach 17% of electricity sales (compared to 12% in 2019). Relative to EIA projections, this amounts to roughly one-third of projected RE growth over the next decade. RPS target achievement to-date: States have generally met their interim RPS targets in recent years, with only a few exceptions reflecting unique, state-specific issues. REC pricing trends: Prices for NEPOOL Class I RECs rose steeply over 2019, reaching $40/MWh and remaining at roughly that level over 2020. PJM Tier I REC prices continued to rise at a modest pace over the course of 2020, reaching $10/MWh by year-end. Prices for solar RECs remained relatively stable over 2020, and continue to exhibit wide variation across states, with the highest prices ($200-450/MWh) in NJ, MA, and DC.RPS compliance costs and cost caps: RPS compliance costs in 2019 averaged roughly 2.6% of retail electricity bills in RPS states, compared to 2.3% in 2018, with costs in most states ranging from 0.5% to 4.5% of retail electricity bills.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗