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DOE OSTI2024

Queued Up: 2024 Edition, Characteristics of Power Plants Seeking Transmission Interconnection As of the End of 2023 [Slides]

Electric transmission system operators (ISOs, RTOs, or utilities) require projects seeking to connect to the grid to undergo a series of impact studies before they can be built. This process establishes what new transmission equipment or upgrades may be needed before a project can connect to the system and assigns the costs of that equipment. The lists of projects in this process are known as “interconnection queues”. The amount of new electric capacity in these queues is growing dramatically, with nearly 2,600 gigawatts (GW) of total generation and storage capacity now seeking connection to the grid (over 95% of which is for zero-carbon resources like solar, wind, and battery storage). However, most projects that apply for interconnection are ultimately withdrawn, and those that are built are taking longer on average to complete the required studies and become operational. Data from these queues nonetheless provide a general indicator for mid-term trends in developer interest.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Large reductions in Permian Basin methane intensity shown in multi-year comparison of aerially-visible methane emissions

Spanning the US states of Texas and New Mexico, the Permian Basin has been a hotspot of methane emissions from oil and natural gas activity 1–4, although studies disagree over the magnitude of these emissions. The most comprehensive measurement campaigns published were conducted in 2019 1–5 .There have been large changes in the energy industry since then, including in the prices of oil and gas, both state and federal regulatory environments, investor and activist pressure over methane emissions, and the adoption of new technologies and policies by energy operators. Understanding how any or all of these might influence methane emissions is important for policy makers, oil and gas operators, and other stakeholders. We characterize the time evolution of Permian Basin methane emissions using a series of comprehensive aerial surveys conducted every year from 2020-2023 and compare them to the 2019 results cited above. To maintain comparability, all the data sets are from surveys using Insight M point source methane sensing technology. The scope of these surveys expanded over time: from 33-46% of wells, oil production, and gas production in 2020 to 60-65% in 2021, to 84% of wells and over 90% of both oil and gas production in 2023. These surveys by Insight M also include hundreds of gas processing plants and compressor stations as well as 1000s of km of gathering and transmission pipelines. Considering only the aerially detected portion of emissions (typically the majority of the total in such surveys 4), we find reductions of more than 70% in methane emissions intensity compared to the 2019 New Mexico-only Insight M survey, with variation depending on the year 3,4. Notably, although sources below 100 kg/hr contributed less than 10% of aerially measured emissions the 2019 New Mexico survey 3, these smaller sources constitute a larger proportion of total aerially measured emissions (although not the majority) in 2020-2023. Production facilities and gathering pipelines are responsible for the larges shares of total emissions, followed by compressor stations and gas processing plants. Permian methane emissions were also measured in a comprehensive 2019 Permian-wide survey by the Carbon Mapper team 2. That analysis led to a lower total emissions estimate at the time 4. These new Insight M-based emission rates are still roughly 30-70% lower than the aerially measured portion of the 2019 Carbon Mapper-based estimates 4. Further work is needed to harmonize these surveys in space and time to create the most intercomparable numbers possible 5. Additional analysis is needed to compare our findings to the more spatially constrained 2020, 2021, and 2023 Carbon Mapper surveys in the Permian 4,6. The evidence is strong from these two survey teams that emissions intensity has declined significantly since 2019. Reasons for this trend are currently unclear but point to possible success of emissions control programs. Future work investigating frequency, source, and operator-specific intensities could provide insights into the causes of this promising trend.

methane, oil and gas, data science, remote sensing↗

DOE OSTI2023

Facile hermetic TEM grid preparation for molecular imaging of hydrated biological samples at room temperature

Abstract Although structures of vitrified supramolecular complexes have been determined at near-atomic resolution, elucidating in situ molecular structure in living cells remains a challenge. Here, we report a straightforward liquid cell technique, originally developed for real-time visualization of dynamics at a liquid-gas interface using transmission electron microscopy, to image wet biological samples. Due to the scattering effects from the liquid phase, the micrographs display an amplitude contrast comparable to that observed in negatively stained samples. We succeed in resolving subunits within the protein complex GroEL imaged in a buffer solution at room temperature. Additionally, we capture various stages of virus cell entry, a process for which only sparse structural data exists due to their transient nature. To scrutinize the morphological details further, we used individual particle electron tomography for 3D reconstruction of each virus. These findings showcase this approach potential as an efficient, cost-effective complement to other microscopy technique in addressing biological questions at the molecular level.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Preventing Reverse Engineering of Critical Industrial Data with DIOD

Business analytics augmented by artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) have revolutionized the role of data in the modern world. In recent years, businesses have incorporated data into their decision-making process for better prediction, risk-assessment, content creation, etc. While such businesses often seek to leverage the full use of their data through third-party AI/ML services, they are often hampered by the risks of data leaks, reverse-engineering, stolen technology, etc. that often have disastrous consequences for businesses and their stakeholders alike. Thus, there arises a need for data masking prior to its transmission that obfuscates proprietary information while preserving the information relevant for AI/ML applications. In order to meet the needs of industrial data which are significantly different from those of data warehouses, previous work proposed an efficient time and space-scalable data masking paradigm known as the deceptive infusion of data (DIOD) methodology. The present work expands upon this work by leveraging existing reverse-engineering capabilities to facilitate the decomposition of industrial data into its proprietary and AI/ML-relevant parts, referred to as fundamental and inference metadata respectively. Both sets of metadata are further obfuscated in accordance with the DIOD methodology to create the DIOD rendition of the industrial data, which is rendered immune to reverse-engineering by discarding proprietary information and only preserving AI/ML-relevant information. Additionally, constraints of the original DIOD manuscript are relaxed using mutual information by configuring the methodology to the target AI/ML application to unlock the full potential of the DIOD methodology. As an example, data from a nuclear reactor is transformed into that from a nonlinear spring-mass system with different levels of data masking as required by the generic system and the target application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Effects of a Pressurized Water Treatment on Internal Gelation Sol-Gel Microspheres

Based on previous observations that a pressurized water treatment (PWT) prevented cracking of sol-gel microspheres, we investigated the effects of a PWT on microsphere crystallinity, density, and specific surface area (SSA). Results were used to determine how a PWT alters the properties of microspheres upon drying and heating. Microspheres with diameters near 100-200 µm were prepared with and without a PWT and measured using x-ray diffraction (XRD), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), nitrogen adsorption (BET), and pycnometry. Properties of air-dried microspheres processed with and without a PWT are compared. Additionally, the properties of microspheres processed using a PWT are reported after heating to 150 °C, 450 °C, 750 °C, 1050 °C, and 1350 °C. X-ray diffraction measurements indicate that the PWT step improves the crystallinity of air-dried microspheres. XRD data was also used to calculate crystallite size, which increases with higher heat treatment temperatures. TEM images support crystallite size calculations from XRD data and provide an indication of the range of crystallite sizes, particularly for samples processed at higher temperatures where crystallite sizes are too large for estimation using the Scherrer formula. Density and SSA measurements performed as a function of heat treatment temperature indicate that a PWT increases the density of air-dried microspheres, creates a pore network, and that significant densification occurs between 450 - 750 °C. These results may be used to inform decisions on internal gelation flowsheet parameters to optimize the microsphere formation and gelation step, prevent microsphere cracking, and produce microspheres suitable for subsequent coating operations or pressing into pellets.

cerium oxide, TRISO, internal gelation, nuclear fu↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hydraulic fracture mapping using wavelet-based fusion of wave transmission and emission measurements

Fracture characterization is essential to hydrocarbon and geothermal exploration and production as well as carbon geo-sequestration. Active and passive measurements have been extensively applied to map fractures across various scales. Active and passive methods have inherent advantages and limitations that complement each other. Here, in this study, to improve the mapping of embedded fractures and the surrounding geomechanically altered regions, we integrate active shear-wave transmission measurement with passive acoustic-emission measurement collected during a lab-scale hydraulic-fracturing experiment. The proposed data fusion leverages the advantages of the two modalities of measurements, while minimizing their individual limitations. Polarized shear-wave transmission (active) measurement was collected before and after the hydraulic fracturing, and the acoustic emission (passive) measurement was collected during hydraulic fracturing. Two sets of two-dimensional maps of fracture and fracture-induced damage in axial, median and frontal planes were obtained by separately processing active and passive measurements. These 2D maps are then fed to wavelet-based image fusion technique to integrate the two sources of information for the reliable mapping/imaging of the embedded fractures and the surrounding geomechanically altered regions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A combined TEM and SAXS study of the growth and self-assembly of ultrathin Pt nanowires

Ultrathin Pt nanowires possess high activity for various electrocatalytic applications. However, little work has focused on understanding their growth mechanisms. Herein, we utilize a combination of time-dependent, ex situ transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and small angle x-ray scattering (SAXS) techniques to observe the growth process in addition to associated surfactant-based interactions. TEM images indicate that initially nanoparticles are formed within 30 s; these small 'seed' particles quickly elongate to form ultrathin nanowires after 2 min. These motifs remain relatively unchanged in size and shape up to 480 min of reaction. Complementary SAXS data suggests that the initial nanoparticles, which are coated by a surfactant bilayer, arrange into a bcc superlattice. With increasing reaction time, the bcc lattice disappears as the nanoparticles grow into nanowires, which then self-assemble into a columnar hexagonal structure in which the individual nanowires are covered by a CTAB monolayer. The hexagonal structure eventually degrades, thereby leading to the formation of lamellar stacking phases comprised of surfactant bilayers. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that SAXS has been used to monitor the growth and self-assembly of Pt nanowires. In conclusion, these insights can be used to better understand and rationally control the formation of anisotropic motifs of other metallic nanostructures.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development of Methane Emissions Model to Assess Fuel Recovery Potential at Gas Well Sites Using On Site Compression

The U.S. natural gas production and consumption has increased 85.5% since 2005 primarily due to the unconventional production methods of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing. Natural gas used as a fuel has a lower greenhouse gas (GHG) footprint than coal and petroleum due to lower Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions when combusted. However, the “greener” benefit to natural gas may be negated by leaks in production and transmission systems. Methane (CH4), the primary hydrocarbon in natural gas, has an estimated Global Warming Potential (GWP) of 28-36 over 100 years, meaning it can absorb 28-36 more energy than CO2 which has a GWP of 1.0. Natural gas well sites are prone to methane emissions, or leaks and irregular gas releases, vented to atmosphere throughout production and transmission. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) has recently granted West Virginia University (WVU) funding under agreement DE-FOA-0002005, to “Advance technologies to mitigate methane emissions and increase the efficiency of the natural gas transportation infrastructure”. As part of this funding WVU was tasked with identifying and quantifying sources of methane emissions at unconventional well sites, processing this data, and developing a system to recapture these emissions. A 0-D Simulink model was developed, utilizing standardized methodologies, data from previously conducted studies, as well as collected data from well sites in the Marcellus shale play region. The model was developed to predict emission rates from various components at natural gas well sites as well as the potential to utilize these emissions as fuel for the natural gas powered compressor engines on-site. This model was utilized to run high, medium, and low cases for four identified emission sources, engine size, pneumatic controller count, liquid level production which dictates tank emissions, and compressor packing vent emissions. Due to discrepancies in transient tank emission data, a high and low emission factor for tanks was used, resulting in two sets of 81 executed cases, and 162 unique cases of total site emissions and potential for fuel consumption. Each of the cases were run over 86,400 seconds at a 1 Hz, representative of a full 24 hour day of operation. The fuel consumption offset an average of 557% of fuel consumption on an energy density basis across all 81 cases with the high tank emission factor with a maximum offset of 2334%. The fuel consumption offset was an average of 82.9% for all 81 cases with the low tank emission factor with a maximum offset of 337%. This study highlights flaws in the use of publicly available methane number calculations to determine natural gas’s suitability as an engine fuel as well as the lack of public data for transient liquid storage tank emissions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Assessing Uncertainty in Solar Measurements: Key Findings From NLR's SUNI Application Across 89 Stations

The Solar Uncertainty Integrator (SUNI) study was developed by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR's) to provide a standardized "bulk uncertainty processing" method for solar irradiance data, which are essential for the successful deployment of solar energy systems. This poster provides an overview of key findings from NLR's SUNI application across 89 stations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Methods for Incorporating Model Uncertainty into Exoplanet Atmospheric Analysis

A key goal of exoplanet spectroscopy is to measure atmospheric properties, such as abundances of chemical species, in order to connect them to our understanding of atmospheric physics and planet formation. In this new era of high-quality JWST data, it is paramount that these measurement methods are robust. When comparing atmospheric models to observations, multiple candidate models may produce reasonable fits to the data. Typically, conclusions are reached by selecting the best-performing model according to some metric. This ignores model uncertainty in favor of specific model assumptions, potentially leading to measured atmospheric properties that are overconfident and/or incorrect. In this paper, we compare three ensemble methods for addressing model uncertainty by combining posterior distributions from multiple analyses: Bayesian model averaging, a variant of Bayesian model averaging using leave-one-out predictive densities, and stacking of predictive distributions. We demonstrate these methods by fitting the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) + Spitzer transmission spectrum of the hot Jupiter HD 209458b using models with different cloud and haze prescriptions. All of our ensemble methods lead to uncertainties on retrieved parameters that are larger but more realistic and consistent with physical and chemical expectations. Since they have not typically accounted for model uncertainty, uncertainties of retrieved parameters from HST spectra have likely been underreported. We recommend stacking as the most robust model combination method. Our methods can be used to combine results from independent retrieval codes and from different models within one code. They are also widely applicable to other exoplanet analysis processes, such as combining results from different data reductions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Transformation of Ferrihydrite to Goethite and the Fate of Plutonium

Understanding the interactions between plutonium and iron (oxy)hydroxide minerals is necessary to gain a predictive understanding of plutonium environmental mobility and to evaluate long-term performance of nuclear waste repositories. We investigated the fate of plutonium during the formation of ferrihydrite and its subsequent transformation into goethite. Ferrihydrite was synthesized with varying quantities of Pu(IV) following either a sorption or coprecipitation process; the ferrihydrite was then aged hydrothermally to yield goethite. Additionally, the synthesized materials were characterized via extended X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy, transmission electron microscopy, and acid leaching to elucidate the nature of plutonium association with ferrihydrite and goethite. In samples prepared following the sorption method, plutonium was identified in two different forms: a PuO 2 precipitate and a surface-sorbed plutonium complex. For the samples prepared via coprecipitation, no PuO 2 formation occurs in the ferrihydrite precursor and in the goethite experiments where plutonium concentration is ≤1000 ppm (mg kg –1 ). In these coprecipitation products, plutonium is strongly bound to the minerals either via formation of an inner sphere complex, or via an incorporation process. In the coprecipitation experiments, PuO 2 formation only occurs at the highest plutonium concentration (3000 ppm), suggesting that during ferrihydrite transformation into goethite, part of the plutonium can be remobilized to form PuO 2 nanoparticles. Collectively, our results demonstrate that the nature of plutonium associated with the precursor ferrihydrite (adsorbed vs coprecipitated) will have a direct impact on the association of plutonium with its alteration product (goethite). Furthermore, the data illustrate that some properties of plutonium association with the precursor ferrihydrite are retained through the transformation into goethite. These findings show that plutonium strongly associates with iron (oxy)hydroxides formed through coprecipitation processes and in these materials, plutonium can be strongly retained by the iron minerals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The value of wake steering wind farm flow control in US energy markets

Abstract. Wind farm flow control represents a category of control strategies for achieving wind-plant-level objectives, such as increasing wind plant power production and/or reducing structural loads, by mitigating the impact of wake interactions between wind turbines. Wake steering is a wind farm flow control technology in which specific turbines are misaligned with the wind to deflect their wakes away from downstream turbines, thus increasing overall wind plant power production. In addition to promising results from simulation studies, wake steering has been shown to successfully increase energy production through several recent field trials. However, to better understand the benefits of wind farm flow control strategies such as wake steering, the value of the additional energy to the electrical grid should be evaluated – for example, by considering the price of electricity when the additional energy is produced. In this study, we investigate the potential for wake steering to increase the value of wind plant energy production by combining model predictions of power gains using the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) engineering wind farm flow control tool with historical electricity price data for 15 existing US wind plants in four different electricity market regions. Specifically, for each wind plant, we use FLORIS to estimate power gains from wake steering for a time series of hourly wind speeds and wind directions spanning the years 2018–2020, obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. The modeled power gains are then correlated with hourly electricity prices for the nearest transmission node. Through this process we find that wake steering increases annual energy production (AEP) between 0.4 % and 1.7 %, depending on the wind plant, with average increases in potential annual revenue (i.e., annual revenue of production, ARP) 4 % higher than the AEP gains. For most wind plants, ARP gain was found to exceed AEP gain. But the ratio between ARP gain and AEP gain is greater for wind plants in regions with high wind penetration because electricity prices tend to be relatively higher during periods with below-rated wind plant power production, when wake losses occur and wake steering is active; for wind plants in the Southwest Power Pool – the region with the highest wind penetration analyzed (31 %) – the increase in ARP from wake steering is 11 % higher than the AEP gain. Consequently, we expect the value of wake steering, and other types of wind farm flow control, to increase as wind penetration continues to grow.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

AGGREGATE: dAta-driven modelinG preservinG contRollable dEr for outaGe mAnagemenT and rEsiliency (Final Report)

The AGGREGATE project team successfully developed and validated various modules for outage management. Brief summaries of each module are provided to showcase their strength for outage management and restoration for a distribution system with a high penetration of connected distribution energy resources (DERs). In recent years, inverter-based DERs have been widely deployed in distribution system. A most of behind-the-meter (BTM) solar power generation is not visible to the utility. The data-driven DER and load estimation modules are using machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) to manage this issue, which provides an opportunity for distribution system operators (DSOs) to operate systems and make decisions in real-time for a distribution system with a high penetration of DERs deployed. Also, the estimated DER and true load can be further leveraged in network aggregation and cold-load pick up estimation for reducing the computing complexity and providing for fast restoration. After load demand and DER power generations have been estimated, the information will support topology and state estimation (SE). The topology estimation module demonstrated the viability of mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation to estimate the most likely operational radial topology and outage sections using power flow measurements, historical/estimated load and DERs data and smart meter ping measurements. Formulation includes continuous (power flow, load and DERs data) and binary measurements (smart meter ping measurements) in a single formulation. Errors in continuous data and binary data are modeled as normal distribution and Bernoulli distribution, respectively. In the future distribution grid, the power injection from controllable DERs will be essential for efficient and resilient grid operation. However, determining the optimal DER injections and restoration actions is dependent on knowledge of the system states. State estimation (SE), already the cornerstone of transmission energy management systems, will become commonplace in distribution management systems as more measurements become available from deployment of automated metering infrastructure (AMI). Observability analysis is the first step in SE, as it determines the sufficiency of the available measurements for accurately estimating the current system states. A new type of pseudo-measurement called a Correlational Measurement (CM) is introduced in this module, to enhance the observability of the system to enable more accurate SE. CMs encapsulate knowledge of correlation between demand patterns for similar classes of loads as well as injection patterns for same-technology renewable DERs. During grid contingency scenarios, DERs have been traditionally disconnected, without any fault ride-through capabilities. However, with new regulations and better technology, it is feasible for these resources to contribute to the grid’s restoration after an adverse event and hence enhance resilience. The controllability module proposes a two-step restoration scheme for the power system restoration process by leveraging additional degrees of freedom in power electronics interfaced DERs for mitigating voltage problems. In a resilience mode without the utility system, the distribution grid relies on DERs to serve critical load. In such a severe event with multiple faults on the distribution feeders, actuation of various protective devices (PDs) divides the distribution system into electrical islands. The undetected actuated PDs due to fault current contributions from DERs can delay the restoration process, thereby reducing the system resilience. The Advanced Outage Management (AOM) and the Advanced Feeder Restoration (AFR) modules developed in this project provide improved system resilience with multiple DERs. AOM identifies the faulted sections and actuated PDs in a distribution system with DERs by incorporating smart meter data. The most credible outage scenario including fault locations, PD actuations, and fault indicator (FI) failures is identified by a set of binary integer linear programming incorporating hypotheses. The AFR module serves to restore a distribution system with available energy resources taking into consideration the availability of utility sources and DERs. By partitioning the system into islands, critical load will be served with the available generation resources within islands based on the solution of a MILP. When the utility systems become available, the optimal path will be determined by a spanning tree search algorithm that reconnects these islands back to substations and restores the remaining load. The transmission and distribution (T&D) co-simulation module was used to validate the effect of a control action performed on the distribution side assets as it propagates to the transmission side. This ensures that the control action performed results in a feasible operating point on both the transmission and the distribution system. In addition to validation, the team used the T&D co-simulation module to demonstrate how distribution system assets can be used to mitigate issues on the transmission system. Specifically, the team demonstrated that appropriate switching operations on the distribution side can alleviate the line overload condition on the transmission side without causing new operational constraint violations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

A novel statistical methodology for quantifying the spatial arrangements of axons in peripheral nerves

A thorough understanding of the neuroanatomy of peripheral nerves is required for a better insight into their function and the development of neuromodulation tools and strategies. In biophysical modeling, it is commonly assumed that the complex spatial arrangement of myelinated and unmyelinated axons in peripheral nerves is random, however, in reality the axonal organization is inhomogeneous and anisotropic. Present quantitative neuroanatomy methods analyze peripheral nerves in terms of the number of axons and the morphometric characteristics of the axons, such as area and diameter. In this study, we employed spatial statistics and point process models to describe the spatial arrangement of axons and Sinkhorn distances to compute the similarities between these arrangements (in terms of first- and second-order statistics) in various vagus and pelvic nerve cross-sections. We utilized high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (TEM) images that have been segmented using a custom-built high-throughput deep learning system based on a highly modified U-Net architecture. Our findings show a novel and innovative approach to quantifying similarities between spatial point patterns using metrics derived from the solution to the optimal transport problem. We also present a generalizable pipeline for quantitative analysis of peripheral nerve architecture. Our data demonstrate differences between male- and female-originating samples and similarities between the pelvic and abdominal vagus nerves.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Automation of Laser Plasma Focused Ion Beam Microscopy for Next-Gen Energy Materials

Automation can revolutionize the use of ultrafast laser ablation and plasma-focused ion beam (PFIB) techniques for high-throughput, reproducible cross-sectioning and various sample preparation in materials characterization. As these methods become essential for analyzing complex energy materials and next-generation devices, efficient, standardized workflows are needed to minimize variability and enhance precision. This work highlights our advancements in developing automated processes for sample preparation that integrates machine learning, workflow optimization, and large-scale data acquisition to improve efficiency and scalability in applications such as electrolyzers, photovoltaic cells, and microelectronics. To streamline cross-sectioning and lamella fabrication, we have implemented fully automated workflows that standardize laser ablation and PFIB milling sequences. These workflows incorporate pre-programmed protocols for material removal, alignment, and thinning, reducing user intervention and ensuring consistency across different sample types. Machine learning algorithms further enhance automation by predicting optimal milling strategies and adapting parameters based on material properties and sectioning requirements. This approach significantly improves throughput while maintaining the structural integrity of prepared samples for high-resolution imaging and analysis, including transmission electron microscopy. Beyond sample preparation, our automation platform enables the acquisition of large, high-resolution datasets through serial sectioning, image alignment, and 3D reconstruction. These automated routines facilitate multi-scale characterization, capturing structural and compositional details from the nanoscale to the device level. By reducing variability and increasing efficiency, our automated approach enhances defect analysis, failure diagnostics, and process optimization, accelerating advancements in materials research and device engineering.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Prediction of dislocation - grain boundary interactions in FCC aluminum bicrystals using a modified continuum criterion and machine learning methods

Mechanical properties of metals such as strength and toughness are strongly correlated to complex interactions between various defects in the crystalline structure. While elementary interactions between these defects have been investigated using recent micro- and nano-characterization techniques, understanding of the detailed interaction mechanisms has hardly been obtained. To understand defect-driven plasticity at various time and length scales, it is necessary to formulate a general guideline to predict both the interaction type (transmission or reflection) and the dislocation's subsequent slip system after the interaction. Many criteria based on the geometric alignment of the defects have been developed to predict this phenomenon, but these have yet to be found to be accurate when applied to general data sets of grain boundaries (GBs). With this motivation, we conduct a systematic study using molecular dynamics (MD) models of bicrystals to analyze defect interaction process between a prismatic dislocation loop and eleven different grain boundaries of the following character: three tilt, three twist, and five mixed. Based on the MD observations, two new prediction methods are developed: the first is a new data-driven parametric score function based on the classical geometric criteria, and the second is by applying Gaussian process machine learning methods to find the probability distribution of a hidden function. In conclusion, the proposed data-driven prediction methods could pave a new way to predict the unit interaction of dislocations with various GBs, which could show much higher accuracy compared to pre-existing geometric criteria.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Using in situ UO 2 bicrystal sintering to understand grain boundary dislocation nucleation kinetics and creep

Capillary evolution at bicrystal UO 2 grain boundaries is characterized using in situ transmission electron microscopy. The discontinuous nature of the densification process, both particle rotation and axial strain, along with the large activation stress for densification support a hypothesis that grain boundary strain in UO 2 follows nucleation rate limited kinetics at low to intermediate stresses, that is, less than ≈ 10 8 PA. Further, the temperature dependence of the average activation stress for sintering agrees well with analysis of bulk sintering data and creep data reported within the literature when analyzed in the context of a grain boundary dislocation nucleation rate limited kinetic model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evolving Competitive Markets in SAPP: Leveraging Competitive Wholesale Electricity Markets to Drive Renewable Generation Capacity in the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP)

The SADC region has significant natural resource potential to increase renewable energy generation, improve electricity reliability, and support economic development. This research finds an apparent lack of confidence from electricity infrastructure investors in SAPP wholesale electricity markets, which increases risk perception and lowers the likelihood of capital deployment. With respect to free market fundamentals, competitive market obstacles and renewable energy development obstacles are characterized. Stakeholders identified the top obstacles to well-functioning competitive markets as insufficient transmission infrastructure for interconnection and regional movement of electricity, dominance of national single-buyer markets, and lack of or weak nation-state regulatory frameworks. Stakeholders prioritized the top three obstacles for renewable energy development as a lack of viable commercial arrangements for variable renewable energy (VRE) balancing, lack of functional and consistent nation-level regulations, and higher project costs related to reliance on imported equipment. With respect to potential solution options, stakeholders prioritized the development of new cost allocation and finance methods to facilitate new transmission expansion, training to educate new or potential new market entrants on SAPP processes, as well as modeling and analysis of regional SAPP participation benefits disaggregated to the nation-state level. From these perspectives, this research identified strategy options for consideration including transitioning SAPP to a regional transmission operator (RTO) for operation and planning of cross-border transmission facilities and market administration, shifting operations of SAPP member transmission systems to Independent System Operators (ISOs), establishing a regional regulatory authority and enhancing market data transparency. Implementing these reforms is expected to be challenging, but not insurmountable, given the domestic political, legal, and jurisdictional complexities of the SADC region.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗