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Results for “data-driven model predictive control”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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203 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Comparing Outdoor to Indoor Performance for Bifacial Modules Affected by Polarization-Type Potential-Induced Degradation

Bifacial photovoltaic (PV) modules have the advantage of using light reflected off of the ground to contribute to power production. Predicting the energy gain is challenging and requires complex models to do so accurately. Often, module degradation over time is neglected in models for the sake of simplicity or is underestimated. Comparing outdoor and indoor current–voltage (I–V) performance for bifacial modules is more challenging than for monofacial modules, as there are additional variables to consider such as rear albedo non-uniformity, cell mismatch, and their effects on temperature. This challenge is compounded when heterogeneous degradation modes occur, such as polarization-type potential-induced degradation (PID-p). To examine the effects of PID-p on I–V predictions using an empirical data-driven approach, 16 bifacial PERC modules are installed outdoors on racks with different albedo conditions. A subset is exposed to high-voltage biases of −1500 V or +1500 V. Outdoor data are traced at irradiance ranges of 150–250 W/m 2 , 500–600 W/m 2 , and 900–1000 W/m 2 . These curves are corrected using control module temperature, wire resistivity, and module resistance measured indoors. We examine several methods to transform indoor I–V curves to accurately, and more simply than existing methods, approximate outdoor performance for bifacial modules without and with varying levels of PID-p degradation. This way, bifacial performance modeling can be more accessible and informed by fielded, degraded modules. Distributions of percent errors between indoor and outdoor performance parameters and Mean Absolute Percent Errors (MAPEs) are used to assess method quality. Results including low-irradiance data (150–250 W/m 2 ) are discussed but are filtered for quantifying method quality as these data introduce substantial errors. The method with the most optimal tradeoff between low MAPE and analysis simplicity involves measuring the front side of a module indoors at an irradiance equal to plane-of-array irradiance plus the product of module bifaciality and albedo irradiance. This method gives MAPE values of 1–6.5% for non-degraded and 1.6–5.9% for PID-p degraded module performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Probabilistic Approach to Load Modeling for Central HVAC Systems in Large Commercial Buildings for Retrofit Decisions Under Uncertainty

Retrofitting central HVAC systems in large commercial buildings with advanced technologies like heat recovery chillers (HRCs) offers a significant opportunity to enhance energy efficiency. However, analyzing these retrofits is challenging with traditional whole-building simulation tools, which require intensive calibration and struggle to model innovative system configurations and controls. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes a load profilebased retrofit analysis framework that provides better decisions under uncertainty. The main focus of this paper is the development of a probabilistic load profile model that can be used in the framework by using exploratory data analysis (EDA) of measured building data to properly quantify its inherent variability. A non-parametric Gaussian Process (GP) model was employed to capture the time- and weather-dependent characteristics of the heating load while explicitly modeling its uncertainty. The model's effectiveness is demonstrated through strong predictive performance on unseen data and physically interpretable insights into load behavior. This data-driven, probabilistic load profile serves as a robust and flexible input for subsequent system simulations, enabling a more confident and statistically sound analysis of retrofit potential.

Ham, S W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Prediction of DIII-D Pedestal Structure from Externally Controllable Parameters

The sharp increase of pressure at the edge of a high confinement mode (H-mode) plasma, the pedestal, strongly impacts overall plasma performance. Predicting the pedestal is a necessity to control and optimize tokamak operations. An experimental data-driven machine learning (ML) approach is presented that predicts the pedestal heights and widths of electron density (ne) and electron temperature (Te) profiles as well as the separatrix ne from externally controllable parameters such as the plasma shape, heating method and power, and gas puff rate and integrated gas puff. The OMFIT framework was used with DIII-D data to efficiently, robustly, and automatically build a database of pedestal parameters to train machine learning models. Database creation was enabled by the search engine tool for DIII-D data, TokSearch, which parallelizes data fetching, enabling fast searches through basic signals of thousands of DIII-D shots and selection of relevant time intervals. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) separated the database into three clusters that represent classes of plasma shapes that are regularly used in DIII-D. The most important parameters for setting the pedestal structure were plasma current (Ip), toroidal magnetic field (Bφ), neutral beam heating power (PNBI) and shaping quantities. The Deep Jointly Informed Neural Networks (DJINN) algorithm was applied to identify suitable neural network (NN) architectures that appropriately capture the features of the pedestal database. Separate NNs were implemented for each pedestal parameter, and ensembling methods were used to improve the prediction accuracy and allowed estimation of the prediction uncertainty. The pedestal predictions of the test dataset lie within the measurement uncertainties of the pedestal parameters. The NN outperformed simple Linear Regression (LR) analysis, indicating non-linear dependencies in the pedestal structure. The presented achievements illustrate a promising path for future research, using feature extraction to infer experimental trends and thereby improve pedestal models as well as deploying NN for a fast pedestal prediction in DIII-D scenario development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Adaptable Data Driven Model Predictive Control for Heat Pipe Microreactors

To establish a technical basis for self-regulating microreactors, a model predictive control (MPC) system is investigated to proactively respond to anomalies and disturbances in anticipation of potential deviations from operating setpoints. Due to the difficulty of developing a physics-based surrogate model that can accurately match plant data in various operating conditions, machine learning algorithms are used in MPC, which allow for learning from both simulation and operation data, thus efficiently describing the targeted transient with arbitrary accuracy. However, one of the biggest concerns in applying ML algorithms like artificial neural networks (ANNs) is that the predictive capabilities of ANN are limited by training data. If there are gaps between the training and target domain, the accuracy of an ANN can degrade significantly when it is used to predict unseen data. To improve the predictive capability of ANN and enable a confident use of data-driven MPCs outside the training data, this study proposes an adaptive data-driven MPC framework. The system will monitor the discrepancy between plant responses and surrogate predictions, fine-tune the ANN-based surrogate when a large discrepancy is detected, and continue MPC operation with updated surrogates. The framework is demonstrated on a point kinetic model for microreactors. The hyperparameters of the update strategy, including layers to update, error thresholds, learning rate discount, and number of data points used for fine-tuning, are optimized so the simulated microreactor is able to follow changes in setpoint with the smallest of deviations.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗