SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “design under uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 217 records · Page 12

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1990

Probabilistic structural analysis methodology and applications to advanced space propulsion system components

The goal of the reported work is to develop and apply new technology that will enable the designer to efficiently and accurately account for each of the design sources of uncertainty as it might affect structural reliability and risk assessment. The paper discusses the development of the Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress (NESSUS) finite element code and its supporting reliability algorithms. The NESSUS code and the elements of the solution strategy are outlined and applications are made to several propulsion system components.

Cruse, T. A.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Robust stabilization of the Space Station in the presence of inertia matrix uncertainty

This paper presents a robust H-infinity full-state feedback control synthesis method for uncertain systems with D11 not equal to 0. The method is applied to the robust stabilization problem of the Space Station in the face of inertia matrix uncertainty. The control design objective is to find a robust controller that yields the largest stable hypercube in uncertain parameter space, while satisfying the nominal performance requirements. The significance of employing an uncertain plant model with D11 not equal 0 is demonstrated.

Wie, Bong↗

NASA NTRS1998

LASE measurements of aerosols and water vapor during TARFOX

The TARFOX (Tropospheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing Observational Experiment) intensive field campaign was designed to reduce uncertainties in estimates of the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on climate by measuring direct radiative effects and the optical, physical, and chemical properties of aerosols [1]. TARFOX was conducted off the East Coast of the United States between July 10-31, 1996. Ground, aircraft, and satellite-based sensors measured the sensitivity of radiative fields at various atmospheric levels to aerosol optical properties (i.e., optical thickness, phase function, single-scattering albedo) and to the vertical profile of aerosols. The LASE (Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment) instrument, which was flown on the NASA ER-2 aircraft, measured vertical profiles of total scattering ratio and water vapor during a series of 9 flights. These profiles were used in real-time to help direct the other aircraft to the appropriate altitudes for intensive sampling of aerosol layers. We have subsequently used the LASE aerosol data to derive aerosol backscattering and extinction profiles. Using these aerosol extinction profiles, we derived estimates of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and compared these with measurements of AOT from both ground and airborne sun photometers and derived from the ATSR-2 (Along Track and Scanning Radiometer 2) sensor on ERS-2 (European Remote Sensing Satellite-2). We also used the water vapor mixing ratio profiles measured simultaneously by LASE to derive precipitable water vapor and compare these to ground based measurements.

Ferrare, Richard A.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Aeroelastic Stability and Response of Rotating Structures

A summary of the work performed under NASA grant is presented. More details can be found in the cited references. This grant led to the development of relatively faster aeroelastic analysis methods for predicting flutter and forced response in fans, compressors, and turbines using computational fluid dynamic (CFD) methods. These methods are based on linearized two- and three-dimensional, unsteady, nonlinear aerodynamic equations. During the period of the grant, aeroelastic analysis that includes the effects of uncertainties in the design variables has also been developed.

Keith, Theo G., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2004

MOBI: Microgravity Observations of Bubble Interactions

One of the greatest uncertainties affecting the design of multiphase flow technologies for space exploration is the spatial distribution of phases that will arise in microgravity or reduced gravity. On Earth, buoyancy-driven motion predominates whereas the shearing of the bubble suspension controls its behavior in microgravity. We are conducting a series of ground-based experiments and a flight experiment spanning the full range of ratios of buoyancy to shear. These include: (1) bubbles rising in a quiescent liquid in a vertical channel; (2) weak shear flow induced by slightly inclining the channel; (3) moderate shear flow in a terrestrial vertical pipe flow; and (4) shearing of a bubble suspension in a cylindrical Couette cell in microgravity. We consider nearly monodisperse suspensions of 1 to 1.8 mm diameter bubbles in aqueous electrolyte solutions. The liquid velocity disturbance produced by bubbles in this size range can often be described using an inviscid analysis. Electrolytic solutions lead to hydrophilic repulsion forces that stabilize the bubble suspension without causing Marangoni stresses. We will discuss the mechanisms that control the flow behavior and phase distribution in the ground-based experiments and speculate on the factors that may influence the suspension flow and bubble volume fraction distribution in the flight experiment.

Koch, Donald L.↗

NASA NTRS2004

The NASA Cold Land Processes Pathfinder Mission (CLPP)

The Cold Land Processes Pathfinder (CLPP) mission concept has been developed to measure hydrologic properties of the Cryosphere. The science driver for the mission is to understand the variability of global water cycling and its consequences for local water resources and climate. The CLPP mission is designed to reduce uncertainty of cold-region precipitation, storage, controls, and feedbacks to the land, atmosphere, and ocean, which in turn will improve prediction of future changes in water cycle dynamics. It will provide the first high-resolution global measurements of Earth's changing snow conditions to: 1) quantify the variability of processes in cold regions, 2) improve understanding of past changes, and 3) enable breakthroughs in prediction of future water resources, weather, and climate. The CLPP concept consists of active (C- and Ku-band) and passive (K- and Ka-band) microwave sensors (with high and moderate spatial resolution respectively) to observe snow water equivalent and snow wetness at local process scales. The CLPP global sampling framework provides necessary capability to relate observed local scale snow characteristics to atmospheric forcings, improve predictive models operating at multiple scales, and to tie the short-term CLPP record to the long-term low-resolution remote sensing climate record of global snow properties.

Cline, D.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Design for Safety - The Ares Launch Vehicles Paradigm Change

The lessons learned from the S&MA early involvement in the Ares I launch vehicle design phases proved that performing an in-line function jointly with engineering is critical for S&MA to have an effective role in supporting the system, element, and component design. These lessons learned were used to effectively support the Ares V conceptual design phase and planning for post conceptual design phases. The Top level Conceptual LOM assessment for Ares V performed by the S&MA community jointly with the engineering Advanced Concept Office (ACO) was influential in the final selection of the Ares V system configuration. Post conceptual phase, extensive reliability effort should be planned to support future Heavy Lift Launch Vehicles (HLLV) design. In-depth reliability analysis involving the design, manufacturing, and system engineering communities is critical to understand design and process uncertainties and system integrated failures.

Safie, Fayssal M.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Reliability-Based Design Optimization of a Composite Airframe Component

A stochastic optimization methodology (SDO) has been developed to design airframe structural components made of metallic and composite materials. The design method accommodates uncertainties in load, strength, and material properties that are defined by distribution functions with mean values and standard deviations. A response parameter, like a failure mode, has become a function of reliability. The primitive variables like thermomechanical loads, material properties, and failure theories, as well as variables like depth of beam or thickness of a membrane, are considered random parameters with specified distribution functions defined by mean values and standard deviations.

Pai, Shantaram S.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Investigation of Non-Equilibrium Radiation for Earth Entry

This paper presents measurements and simulations of non-equilibrium shock layer radiation relevant to high-speed Earth entry data obtained in the NASA Ames Research Center's Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility. The experiments were aimed at measuring the spatially and spectrally resolved radiance at relevant entry conditions for both an approximate Earth atmosphere (79 N2 : 21 O2) as well as a more accurate composition featuring the trace species Ar and CO2 (78.08 N2 : 20.95 O2 : 0.04 CO2 : 0.93 Ar). The experiments were configured to target a wide range of conditions, of which shots from 8 to 11.5 km/s at 0.2 Torr (26.7 Pa) are examined in this paper. The non-equilibrium component was chosen to be the focus of this study as it can account for a significant percentage of the emitted radiation for Earth entry, and more importantly, non-equilibrium has traditionally been assigned a large uncertainty for vehicle design. The main goals of this study are to present the shock tube data in the form of a non-equilibrium metric, evaluate the level of agreement between the experiment and simulations, identify key discrepancies and to promote discussion about various aspects of modeling non-equilibrium radiating flows. Radiance profiles integrated over discreet wavelength regions, ranging from the VUV through to the NIR, were compared in order to maximize both the spectral coverage and the number of experiments that could be used in the analysis. A previously defined non-equilibrium metric has been used to allow comparisons with several shots and reveal trends in the data. Overall, LAURAHARA is shown to under-predict EAST by as much as 50 and over-predict by as much as 20 depending on the shock speed. DPLRNEQAIR is shown to under-predict EAST by as much as 40 and over-predict by as much as 12 depending on the shock speed. In terms of an upper bound estimate for the absolute error in wall-directed heat flux, at the lower speeds investigated in this paper, 8 to 9 km/s, even though there are some large relative differences, the absolute error in radiance will be less then 1 Wcm2. At the highest shock speed of 11 km/s, the error will be less than 20 W/ sq cm.

Radiation↗

NASA NTRS2016

Investigation of Non-Equilibrium Radiation for Earth Entry

For Earth re-entry at velocities between 8 and 11.5 km/s, the accuracy of NASA's computational uid dynamic and radiative simulations of non-equilibrium shock layer radiation is assessed through comparisons with measurements. These measurements were obtained in the NASA Ames Research Center's Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility. The experiments were aimed at measuring the spatially and spectrally resolved radiance at relevant entry conditions for both an approximate Earth atmosphere (79% N2 : 21% O2 by mole) as well as a more accurate composition featuring the trace species Ar and CO2 (78.08% N2 : 20.95% O2 : 0.04% CO2 : 0.93% Ar by mole). The experiments were configured to target a wide range of conditions, of which shots from 8 to 11.5 km/s at 0.2 Torr (26.7 Pa) are examined in this paper. The non-equilibrium component was chosen to be the focus of this study as it can account for a significant percentage of the emitted radiation for Earth re-entry, and more importantly, non-equilibrium has traditionally been assigned a large uncertainty for vehicle design. The main goals of this study are to present the shock tube data in the form of a non-equilibrium metric, evaluate the level of agreement between the experiment and simulations, identify key discrepancies and to examine critical aspects of modeling non-equilibrium radiating flows. Radiance pro les integrated over discreet wavelength regions, ranging from the Vacuum Ultra Violet (VUV) through to the Near Infra-Red (NIR), were compared in order to maximize both the spectral coverage and the number of experiments that could be used in the analysis. A previously defined non-equilibrium metric has been used to allow comparisons with several shots and reveal trends in the data. Overall, LAURA/HARA is shown to under-predict EAST by as much as 40% and over-predict by as much as 12% depending on the shock speed. DPLR/NEQAIR is shown to under-predict EAST by as much as 50% and over-predict by as much as 20% depending on the shock speed. The one standard deviation scatter in the EAST results was calculated to be 31%. An estimate for the upper bound of the absolute error in wall-directed heat flux was calculated. Below 9 km/s, where the relative difference is large, the absolute error in radiative heat flux due to non-equilibrium models is estimated to be less then 1 W/sq cm. At the highest shock speed of 11 km/s, the error in non-equilibrium is estimated to be less than 20 W/sq cm.

Shock Tube↗

NASA NTRS2019

initMIP-Antarctica: an Ice Sheet Model Initialization Experiment of ISMIP6

Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their impact on century-scale simulations. initMIP is the first set of experiments of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), which is the primary Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) activity focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Following initMIP-Greenland, initMIP-Antarctica has been designed to explore uncertainties associated with model initialization and spin-up and to evaluate the impact of changes in external forcings. Starting from the state of the Antarctic ice sheet at the end of the initialization procedure, three forward experiments are each run for 100 years: a control run, a run with a surface mass balance anomaly, and a run with a basal melting anomaly beneath floating ice. This study presents the results of initMIP-Antarctica from 25 simulations performed by 16 international modeling groups. The submitted results use different initial conditions and initialization methods, as well as ice flow model parameters and reference external forcings. We find a good agreement among model responses to the surface mass balance anomaly but large variations in responses to the basal melting anomaly. These variations can be attributed to differences in the extent of ice shelves and their upstream tributaries, the numerical treatment of grounding line, and the initial ocean conditions applied, suggesting that ongoing efforts to better represent ice shelves in continental-scale models should continue.

ice sheet model↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Post-Flight EDL Entry Guidance for the Mars 2020 Mission

Like its predecessor Mars Science Laboratory, the Mars 2020 mission successfully utilized a derivative of the Apollo Entry Terminal Point Controller guidance algorithm, whereby bank angle controls range flown along a trajectory. The flight performance of this algorithm in conjunction with a range-trigger for parachute deploy delivered the Perseverance rover to 1.7 km from the expected touchdown location within an ellipse of 7.5 x 5.2 km. This miss distance is largely attributed to atmospheric and aerodynamic modeling uncertainties between the design and as-flown trajectory. This algorithm for guided entry continues to provide a solid basis for Mars missions to improve upon.

Guidance↗

NASA NTRS2017

Options and Uncertainties in Planetary Defense: Mission Planning and Vehicle Design for Flexible Response

This paper is part of an integrated study by NASA and the NNSA to quantitatively understand the response timeframe should a threatening Earth-impacting near-Earth object (NEO) be identified. The two realistic responses considered are the use of a spacecraft functioning as either a kinetic impactor or a nuclear explosive carrier to deflect the approaching NEO. The choice depends on the NEO size and mass, the available response time prior to Earth impact, and the various uncertainties. Whenever practical, the kinetic impactor is the preferred approach, but various factors, such as large uncertainties or short available response time, reduce the kinetic impactor's suitability and, ultimately, eliminate its sufficiency. Herein we examine response time and the activities that occur between the time when an NEO is recognized as being a sufficient threat to require a deflection and the time when the deflection impulse is applied to the NEO. To use a kinetic impactor for successful deflection of an NEO, it is essential to minimize the reaction time and maximize the time available for the impulse delivered to the NEO by the kinetic impactor to integrate forward in time to the eventual deflection of the NEO away from Earth impact. To shorten the response time, we develop tools to survey the profile of needed spacecraft launches and the possible mission payloads. We further present a vehicle design capable of either serving as a kinetic impactor, or, if the need arises, serving as a system to transport a nuclear explosive to the NEO. These results are generated by analyzing a specific case study in which the simulated Earth-impacting NEO is modeled very closely after the real NEO known as 101955 Bennu (1999 RQ36). Bennu was selected for our case study in part because it is the best-studied of the known NEOs. It is also the destination of NASA's OSIRIS-REx sample return mission, which is, at the time of this writing, enroute to Bennu following a September 2016 launch.

characterization↗

NASA NTRS2017

Options and Uncertainties in Planetary Defense: Mission Planning and Vehicle Design for Flexible Response

Brent W. Barbee↗

NASA NTRS1996

Validation of an Experimentally Derived Uncertainty Model

The results show that uncertainty models can be obtained directly from system identification data by using a minimum norm model validation approach. The error between the test data and an analytical nominal model is modeled as a combination of unstructured additive and structured input multiplicative uncertainty. Robust controllers which use the experimentally derived uncertainty model show significant stability and performance improvements over controllers designed with assumed ad hoc uncertainty levels. Use of the identified uncertainty model also allowed a strong correlation between design predictions and experimental results.

Lim, K. B.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Derivation of mission fluences from flux models: Propagation of uncertainties

The calculation of fluences from the flux models for spacecraft designers, and the propagation of uncertainties in the flux models to larger uncertainties in the final answer are discussed. Ionization and displacement damage in silicon, fluence, and a fluence of an equivalent energy are considered. Data in graph form are presented on stopping power and range curves for electrons and protons in silicon, relative electron and proton damage in silicon, and electron fluences expressed as 3 MeV equivalent and proton fluences expressed as 20 MeV equivalent for flybys in Jupiter's magnetic equatorial plane. It is concluded that the problem includes the uncertainty in peak flux, which has an immediate linear effect; uncertainty in the spatial distribution of the flux which gives great divergency between the upper-limit model and the nominal model and in the case of protons, may preclude any mission planning in order to make the situation better; and the uncertainty in the energy spectrum both in shape and energy location of the peak, if any, and which has little importance for mission planning if the spectrum is fairly constant.

Barengoltz, J.↗

NASA NTRS1998

On the Numerical Formulation of Parametric Linear Fractional Transformation (LFT) Uncertainty Models for Multivariate Matrix Polynomial Problems

Robust control system analysis and design is based on an uncertainty description, called a linear fractional transformation (LFT), which separates the uncertain (or varying) part of the system from the nominal system. These models are also useful in the design of gain-scheduled control systems based on Linear Parameter Varying (LPV) methods. Low-order LFT models are difficult to form for problems involving nonlinear parameter variations. This paper presents a numerical computational method for constructing and LFT model for a given LPV model. The method is developed for multivariate polynomial problems, and uses simple matrix computations to obtain an exact low-order LFT representation of the given LPV system without the use of model reduction. Although the method is developed for multivariate polynomial problems, multivariate rational problems can also be solved using this method by reformulating the rational problem into a polynomial form.

Belcastro, Christine M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Reliability Issues in Stirling Radioisotope Power Systems

Stirling power conversion is a potential candidate for use in a Radioisotope Power System (RPS) for space science missions because it offers a multifold increase in the conversion efficiency of heat to electric power and reduced requirement of radioactive material. Reliability of an RPS that utilizes Stirling power conversion technology is important in order to ascertain long term successful performance. Owing to long life time requirement (14 years), it is difficult to perform long-term tests that encompass all the uncertainties involved in the design variables of components and subsystems comprising the RPS. The requirement for uninterrupted performance reliability and related issues are discussed, and some of the critical areas of concern are identified. An overview of the current on-going efforts to understand component life, design variables at the component and system levels, and related sources and nature of uncertainties are also discussed. Current status of the 110 watt Stirling Radioisotope Generator (SRG110) reliability efforts is described. Additionally, an approach showing the use of past experience on other successfully used power systems to develop a reliability plan for the SRG110 design is outlined.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗