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Results for “design under uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of nuclear data covariance libraries on uncertainty quantification of sodium cooled fast reactor simulation

Uncertainty quantification in core modelling to assess reactor performance is a regular practice to identify design safety limits. Best-estimate plus uncertainty (BEPU) methods are commonly used to propagate uncertainties to core responses from input parameters, characterized by variance-covariance libraries. This study evaluates the impact of different covariance libraries on the uncertainty associated with core safety parameters and their propagation through reactor transient modelling for a metallic core (ABR-1000). The COMAC-1.0, COMMARA-2.0, and COMMARA-2.1 covariance libraries are used to propagate nuclear data uncertainties to neutron feedback coefficients using the Generalized Perturbation Theory, then through transient safety analyses to establish the confidence interval for safety performance of the reactor using stochastic sampling. The considered transients include Unprotected Transient Over Power and Unprotected Loss Of Flow. Most influential nuclide and reaction pairs in different variance-covariance libraries are identified and their impact on the uncertainty of safety parameters are evaluated. Significant differences were observed between uncertainties from COMAC compared to COMMARA libraries. Uncertainties from COMMARA libraries were consistently larger than COMAC for all cases. For structure, coolant density feedback coefficients and control rod worth, total nuclear data uncertainties were approximately 50% larger for COMMARA than COMAC. Differences were also observed in identification of top contributors of uncertainty in terms of reaction-cross sections. For instance, largest contribution to total uncertainty of radial expansion coefficient from COMMARA-2.0 and 2.1 originates from Na{sup 23} P1 Elastic cross section (0.81%) but from Pu{sup 239} Fission (0.53%) with COM C-1.0. Such differences are evaluated in this research for all quantities of interest. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States (2023 Edition)

Estimates of the potential of renewable energy are essential for understanding how we can decarbonize our electric grid and economy. They provide key data for policymakers, land managers, and energy modelers by defining the quantity, quality, and cost of renewable resources. However, estimating renewable energy potential is challenging and requires frequent updates because of rapid advances in technology, cost reductions, and uncertainty about developable land that are due to social, regulatory, and environmental factors. Additionally, the complex processes involved in renewable energy development require regular reviews of methods and assumptions, which can also impact our understanding of renewable potential. In this, the 2023 edition of this annual report, we present new estimates of the technical potential for land-based wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) for the contiguous United States (CONUS). We also provide cost estimates for the available resources, presenting representative supply curves that can be used in downstream modeling and analysis. Additionally, we introduce the new methodologies used to estimate wind capacity, wind energy losses, transmission cost and representation, updated technology cost and design, and scenarios of siting constraints designed to help bound the uncertainty of renewable potential.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting System Response at Unmeasured Locations

Traditional techniques to derive dynamic specification for components have a great deal of uncertainty. One of the major sources of uncertainty is that the number of response measurements in the operational system environment is insufficient to determine the component motion. This inadequacy is due to logistical limitations for data recording in field testing and space limitations for accelerometers, strain gages and associated wiring. Available measurements are often some distance from the component and therefore do not represent component motion. Typical straight-line envelopes of these unrepresentative measurements guarantee an increase in the uncertainty. In this paper multiple methods are attempted to expand a sparse set of field test measurements on a system to responses of interest that cannot be measured in the field due to the limitations. Proof of concept is demonstrated on the Modal Analysis Test Vehicle (MATV). The responses of interest, known as “truth responses”, are measured in a system vibration environment along with an optimized sparse set of 30 field responses. Methods to expand the field responses to the truth responses are demonstrated by comparing the acceleration spectral density of the expanded response to the measured response. Two methods utilize a validated finite element model of the MATV. One is developed from purely experiment based frequency response functions of a laboratory pre-test. Finally, these approaches are designed to drastically reduce the uncertainty of the component in-service motion as a basis for developing specifications that are guaranteed to be conservative with a known (instead of unknown) conservatism.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty-aware Continuous Implicit Neural Representations for Remote Sensing Object Counting

Many existing object counting methods rely on density map estimation (DME) of the discrete grid representation by decoding extracted image semantic features from designed convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Relying on discrete density maps not only leads to information loss dependent on the original image resolution, but also has a scalability issue when analyzing high-resolution images with cubically increasing memory complexity. Furthermore, none of the existing methods can offer reliable uncertainty quantification (UQ) for the derived count estimates. To overcome these limitations, we design UNcertainty-aware, hypernetwork-based Implicit neural representations for Counting (UNIC) to assign probabilities and the corresponding counting confidence over continuous spatial coordinates. We derive a sampling-based Bayesian counting loss function and develop the corresponding model training algorithm. UNIC outperforms existing methods on the Remote Sensing Object Counting (RSOC) dataset with reliable UQ and improved interpretability of the derived count estimates. Our code is available at https://github.com/SiyuanXu-tamu/UNIC.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing and communicating uncertainty: lessons from NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System

Navigating uncertainty is a critical challenge in all fields of science, especially when translating knowledge into real-world policies or management decisions. However, the wide variance in concepts and definitions of uncertainty across scientific fields hinders effective communication. As a microcosm of diverse fields within Earth Science, NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) provides a useful crucible in which to identify cross-cutting concepts of uncertainty. The CMS convened the Uncertainty Working Group (UWG), a group of specialists across disciplines, to evaluate and synthesize efforts to characterize uncertainty in CMS projects. This paper represents efforts by the UWG to build a heuristic framework designed to evaluate data products and communicate uncertainty to both scientific and non-scientific end users. We consider four pillars of uncertainty: origins, severity, stochasticity versus incomplete knowledge, and spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Using a common vocabulary and a generalized workflow, the framework introduces a graphical heuristic accompanied by a narrative, exemplified through contrasting case studies. Envisioned as a versatile tool, this framework provides clarity in reporting uncertainty, guiding users and tempering expectations. Beyond CMS, it stands as a simple yet powerful means to communicate uncertainty across diverse scientific communities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Design of Experiments Involving Molybdenum in SNL SPRF/CX Facility

This report is part of the collaboration with the Nuclear Criticality Safety Program and constitutes the “CED-2 report” of the experiments proposed in the SPRF/CX facility of SANDIA National Laboratories to contribute to the validation of Molybdenum in thermal energy spectrum. It supplements the study carried out in the CED-1 report by providing a more precise design of the proposed experiments and presents a complete evaluation of the experimental uncertainties. In the CED-1 report, corresponding to the preliminary design of the experiments, IRSN identified several promising configurations that could be implemented in the SPRF/CX facility of SNL. They use metallic molybdenum either in the form of foils between the UO 2 pellets inside BUCCX rods, or in the form of sleeves surrounding 7uPCX rods. In this CED-2 report, a new design using molybdenum sleeves surrounding BUCCX rods is also analyzed and the experimental uncertainties of all the proposed configurations are estimated. Given the constraints to carry out the experiments and the costs associated with the manufacturing of the foils, the experiments using molybdenum foils are discarded. Similarly, the design using molybdenum sleeves around BUCCX rods leads to significant manufacturing costs which could certainly be partially offset by use of existing grids but which would lead to slightly lower values of the integral sensitivities to the cross sections of molybdenum. Consequently, the design using molybdenum sleeves around 7uPCX rods is favored insofar as it presents higher $k_{eff}$ sensitivities to the molybdenum cross sections and that there is still possibility to reduce the number of sleeves to reduce the cost of experiments. Regarding feedback on nuclear data in support of criticality safety assessment, one of the advantages of the work described here is that the proposed experiments are not correlated with the MIRTE and FP experiments using molybdenum. In addition, they lead to higher sensitivity values in the thermal energy range than the existing experiments and partly “cover” the first resonance of the 95 Mo, which is a real advantage for improving knowledge on molybdenum cross sections.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

FunMC^2: A Filter for Uncertainty Visualization of Marching Cubes on Multi-Core Devices

Visualization is an important tool for scientists to extract understanding from complex scientific data. Scientists need to understand the uncertainty inherent in all scientific data in order to interpret the data correctly. Uncertainty visualization has been an active and growing area of research to address this challenge. Algorithms for uncertainty visualization can be expensive, and research efforts have been focused mainly on structured grid types. Further, support for uncertainty visualization in production tools is limited. In this paper, we adapt an algorithm for computing key metrics for visualizing uncertainty in Marching Cubes (MC) to multi-core devices and present the design, implementation, and evaluation for a Filter for uncertainty visualization of Marching Cubes on Multi-Core devices (FunMC2). FunMC2 accelerates the uncertainty visualization of MC significantly, and it is portable across multi-core CPUs and GPUs. Evaluation results show that FunMC2 based on OpenMP runs around 11× to 41× faster on multi-core CPUs than the corresponding serial version using one CPU core. FunMC2 based on a single GPU is around 5× to 9× faster than FunMC2 running by OpenMP. Moreover, FunMC2 is flexible enough to process ensemble data with both structured and unstructured mesh types. Furthermore, we demonstrate that FunMC2 can be seamlessly integrated as a plugin into ParaView, a production visualization tool for post-processing.

Wang, Jay↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Propagation from Experiment Measurements to Modeling Approaches: A Case for SMR Steam Entrainment Testing

To license new and advanced reactor designs, regulators must be convinced that their unique safety cases—relative to existing large scale reactors—have been adequately addressed by the designed reactor protection systems. In water cooled small modular reactors (SMRs), droplet entrainment in steam flow has significant implications on the progression of accident scenarios due to its compact design features, which requires representative test data applicable to SMR designs. Computer code, modeling and simulation (M&S) tools and models require adequate verification, assessment, and qualification. This includes M&S results validation against scaled empirical data within allowable uncertainty bands to gain regulatory approvals during the various stages of reactor system design, demonstration, and commercialization. However, measurement uncertainty within the empirical datasets and test data applicability ranges requires careful consideration of M&S inputs (i.e., boundary conditions, and initial conditions), and verification and validation efforts. This study focuses on uncertainty quantification in designing scaled test facilities for SMR applications with appropriate measurements and a standard data-reduction method to estimate thermal hydraulics characteristics parameters that incorporate physics phenomena of interest. In addition, this study supports the evaluation model development and assessment process using M&S that interfaces with advanced computing tools and digital twin capabilities. This will allow synchronization between experiment and modeling approaches for droplet entrainment testing and analysis, improving diagnostics, prognostics, and decision-making to accelerate regulatory approval.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

YAHFC: A Code Framework to Model Nuclear Reactions and Estimate Correlated Uncertainties

Reaction modeling is a key ingredient in designing experiments and interpreting their results, and is an essential component in the process of evaluating nuclear data and assembling nuclear data libraries used in nuclear technology applications. Typically, experimental data are available only for a handful of reaction channels and theory models are used to fill in the gaps. In addition, theory is often called upon as the arbitrator between discrepant data. Most importantly, theory and modeling are required for an accurate determination of uncertainties in the evaluated data and the correlations between the multiple channels. A fast, accurate, and flexible modeling capability has been developed at LLNL with the code system YAHFC (Yet Another Hauser-Feshbach Code). YAHFC is a Monte Carlo, Hauser-Feshbach code framework, making full use of dynamic memory allocation, derived types, and parallel computing. YAHFC can generate events to simulate experiments and is guiding experiments designed to measure inelastic neutron scattering from actinide targets. YAHFC is also being used to analyze decays from surrogate experiments, thereby enabling the inference of reaction cross sections inaccessible by direct measurement. Finally, by modeling nuclear reactions with constraints from experimental data, YAHFC can deliver complete nuclear data libraries, with evaluated uncertainties, using the modernized Generalized Nuclear Data Structure (GNDS).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Designing a Robust MEA-Based Post-Combustion Carbon Capture Process with Capture Rate Guarantees

This work presents an application of the nonlinear two-stage robust optimization solver PyROS to the model-based design and operation of a monoethanolamine scrubbing process for CO<sub>2</sub> capture under epistemic uncertainty. Through this application, risk-averse process designs are successfully obtained for CO<sub>2</sub> capture targets ranging from 90% to over 99%. In particular, the risk-averse solutions for CO<sub>2</sub> capture targets of up to 98% are shown to be only marginally more expensive than their nominally optimal counterparts. Thus, the results demonstrate the utility of recently developed nonlinear robust optimization approaches for the solution of large-scale chemical process models under uncertainty.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

From PINNs to PIKANs: recent advances in physics-informed machine learning

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have emerged as a key tool in Scientific Machine Learning since their introduction in 2017, enabling the efficient solution of ordinary and partial differential equations using sparse measurements. Over the past few years, significant advancements have been made in the training and optimization of PINNs, covering aspects such as network architectures, adaptive refinement, domain decomposition, and the use of adaptive weights and activation functions. A notable recent development is the Physics-Informed Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (PIKANS), which leverage a representation model originally proposed by Kolmogorov in 1957, offering a promising alternative to traditional PINNs. In this review, we provide a comprehensive overview of the latest advancements in PINNs, focusing on improvements in network design, feature expansion, optimization techniques, uncertainty quantification, and theoretical insights. We also survey key applications across a range of fields, including biomedicine, fluid and solid mechanics, geophysics, dynamical systems, heat transfer, chemical engineering, and beyond. Lastly, we review computational frameworks and software tools developed by both academia and industry to support PINN research and applications.

Kolmogorov-Arnold networks↗
DOE OSTI2022

Incorporate day-ahead robustness and real-time incentives for electricity market design

In this paper, we propose a two-stage electricity market framework to explore the participation of distributed energy resources (DERs) in a day-ahead (DA) market and a real-time (RT) market. The objective is to determine the optimal bidding strategies of the aggregated DERs in the DA market and generate online incentive signals for DER-owners to optimize the social-welfare taking into account network operational constraints. Distributionally robust optimization is used to explicitly incorporate data-based statistical information of renewable forecasts into the supply/demand decisions in the DA market. We evaluate the conservativeness of bidding strategies distinguished by different risk aversion settings. In the RT market, a bi-level time-varying optimization problem is proposed to design the online incentive signals to tradeoff the RT imbalance penalty for distribution system operators (DSOs) and the costs of individual DER-owners. This enables tracking their optimal dispatch to provide fast balancing services, in the presence of time-varying network states while satisfying the voltage regulation requirement. Simulation results on both DA wholesale market and RT balancing market demonstrate the necessity of this two-stage design, and its robustness to uncertainties, the performance of convergence, the tracking ability and the feasibility of the resulting network operations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

A combined management scheme to simultaneously mitigate As and Cd concentrations in rice cultivated in contaminated paddy soil

Paddy soils in southern China are heavily co-polluted by arsenic (As) and cadmium (Cd). The accumulation of these contaminants in rice grains may pose a high health risk. We evaluated the impact of adjusted water management practice (i.e., conventional irrigation and aerobic treatment after heading stage) and the application of two immobilization agents (i.e., CaO and Fe2O3) on the accumulation of As and Cd in rice grains of three rice varieties (i.e., Jinyou-463, Jinyou-268, and Mabayouzhan). The different schemes were tested via conducting a field experiment in paddy soil in Shaoguan, Guangdong Province, China. The results showed that the combined scheme (selecting Jinyou-268, aerobic water management after the heading stage, and 0.09% CaO and 0.5% Fe2O3 amendments) exhibited the best performance in the reduction of As and Cd accumulation in rice grains. This combined scheme decreased the grain As concentration by 26.19% and maintained the Cd at a low level (0.056 mg/kg) as compared to the use of local conventional irrigation patterns. Moreover, health risk assessment demonstrated that by applying the optimal scheme, neither As nor Cd content in rice had carcinogenic risk. However, the grain As remains at a high non-carcinogenic risk. We suggest that future field study design should fully incorporate the uncertainty of the natural environment to make the research conclusions more feasible for popularization and utilization. This study demonstrated an approach of utilizing the synergy effects of various measures for safe rice production in fields subjected to As and Cd contaminations.

Yang, Xiao↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modeling and Optimization of a Rotating Packed Bed Contactor with a Tetraamine-Appended Metal−Organic Framework for CO 2 Capture

A potential contactor technology for sorbent-based CO 2 capture is the rotating packed bed that contains separate sections for continuous adsorption and desorption. A heat exchanger can be embedded to remove heat in the adsorption section and add heat in the desorption section. In this work, we develop a two-dimensional (2D) model of a rotating packed bed for use in CO 2 capture applications. Mass and energy balances for the model are developed based on a Ljungström-type air preheater, which accounts for the counter-current axial flow of gas phases in separate sections of the bed and the rotation of a solid sorbent, which cycles between adsorption and desorption sections. The sorbent used for this analysis is the tetraamine-appended metal−organic framework Mg 2 (dobpdc)(3−4− 3), chosen for its stability and affinity for CO 2 at low partial pressures, such as those from a natural gas power plant source. An optimization problem is solved that considers the trade-off between maximizing the productivity of the bed and minimizing energy consumption. Maximum productivity and minimum energy are found to be 8.53 kg/h/m 3 and 3.84 MJ/kg, respectively, when these objectives are optimized independently. It is observed that the flue gas pressure and bed rotational speed are the desired operating variables to vary for model-based design of experiments to reduce uncertainty in parameter estimation, as these two variables yielded the most information content based on the Fisher information matrix.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mutual-information based optimal experimental design for hyperpolarized $$^{13}$$C-pyruvate MRI

Abstract A key parameter of interest recovered from hyperpolarized (HP) MRI measurements is the apparent pyruvate-to-lactate exchange rate, $$k_{{\textrm PL}}$$ k P L , for measuring tumor metabolism. This manuscript presents an information-theory-based optimal experimental design approach that minimizes the uncertainty in the rate parameter, $$k_{{\textrm PL}}$$ k P L , recovered from HP-MRI measurements. Mutual information is employed to measure the information content of the HP measurements with respect to the first-order exchange kinetics of the pyruvate conversion to lactate. Flip angles of the pulse sequence acquisition are optimized with respect to the mutual information. A time-varying flip angle scheme leads to a higher parameter optimization that can further improve the quantitative value of mutual information over a constant flip angle scheme. However, the constant flip angle scheme, 35 and 28 degrees for pyruvate and lactate measurements, leads to an accuracy and precision comparable to the variable flip angle schemes obtained from our method. Combining the comparable performance and practical implementation, optimized pyruvate and lactate flip angles of 35 and 28 degrees, respectively, are recommended.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Overview of preparation for the American WAKE ExperimeNt (AWAKEN)

The American WAKE ExperimeNt (AWAKEN) is a multi-institutional field campaign focused on gathering critical observations of wind farm–atmosphere interactions. These interactions are responsible for a large portion of the uncertainty in wind plant modeling tools that are used to represent wind plant performance both prior to construction and during operation and can negatively impact wind energy profitability. The AWAKEN field campaign will provide data for validation, ultimately improving modeling and lowering these uncertainties. The field campaign is designed to address seven testable hypotheses through the analysis of the observations collected by numerous instruments at 13 ground-based locations and on five wind turbines. The location of the field campaign in Northern Oklahoma was chosen to leverage existing observational facilities operated by the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program in close proximity to five operating wind plants. The vast majority of the observations from the experiment are publicly available to researchers and industry members worldwide, which the authors hope will advance the state of the science for wind plants and lead to lower cost and increased reliability of wind energy systems.

17 WIND ENERGY↗