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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Cybersecurity Resiliency of Marine Renewable Energy Systems Part 2: Cybersecurity Best Practices and Risk Management

Marine renewable energy (MRE) is an emerging source of power for marine applications, marine devices, and coastal communities. This energy source relies on industrial control systems and IT to support operations and maintenance activities, which create a pathway for an adversary to gain unauthorized access to systems and data and disrupt operations. Incorporating cybersecurity risk prevention measures and mitigation capabilities from inception, development, operation, to decommissioning of the MRE system and components is paramount to the protection of energy generation and the security of network architecture and infrastructure. To improve the resilience of MRE systems as a predictable, affordable, and reliable source of energy, cybersecurity guidance was developed to enable operators to assess cybersecurity risks and implement security measures commensurate with the risk. This publication is the second of a two-part series, with Part 1 addressing a framework to determine cybersecurity risk by assessing the vulnerability of an MRE system to potential cyber threats and the consequences a cyberattack would have on the end user. This Part 2 publication describes an approach to select appropriate cybersecurity best practices commensurate with the MRE system's cybersecurity risk. The guidance includes 86 cybersecurity best practices, which are associated with 36 cybersecurity domains and grouped into nine categories. The best practices follow the core functions of the National Institute of Science and Technology Cybersecurity Framework (e.g., identify, detect, protect, respond, and and recover) and insights from both maritime and energy industry guidance documents to identify security measures effective in protecting information and operational technology assets prevalent in MRE systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Alpha Particles Incident on MKID Chips for Quantum Sensitivity Analysis

Superconducting quantum devices, such as microwave kinetic inductance detectors (MKIDs), are highly sensitive instruments used in quantum computing and advanced sensing technologies. However, their extreme sensitivity also makes them vulnerable to background noise from natural sources like radiation. One significant contributor to this noise is alpha particles emitted by 210Po, a radon decay daughter that accumulates on surfaces near the detector. This project investigates how alpha particles emitted from 210Po interact with MKID chips. These particles can deposit energy on the detector surface, disrupting its operation and generating false signals. Understanding the energy and behavior of these particles is crucial for improving the design and reliability of quantum devices. To explore this, we first modeled the decay chain starting from 210Pb to 210Po using differential equations. This allowed us to predict how the activity of alpha-emitting isotopes changes over time, reaching a steady state after about two years. Next, we simulated alpha particle interactions with the MKID chip using the Geant4 software toolkit. We built a detailed computer model of the detector housing, including the copper lid where alpha particles originate, the silicon chip, and a thin aluminum sensor layer. Alpha particles were emitted isotropically from just beneath the copper lid’s surface, mimicking natural decay conditions. The simulation tracked how these particles deposit energy on the chip, generating electron-hole pairs and phonons. The results provide insight into the behavior of the resultant electron-hole pairs and phonons, giving us a clear understanding of the energy deposition distribution on the chip. This work supports efforts to mitigate background noise in superconducting sensors, advancing their use in quantum computing and sensitive physics experiments.

Hall, Matthew [Fermilab; UCLA]↗
DOE OSTI2024

The impact of collisionality on the runaway electron avalanche during a tokamak disruption

The exponential growth (avalanching) of runaway electrons (REs) during a tokamak disruption continues to be a large uncertainty in RE modeling. The present work investigates the impact of tokamak geometry on the efficiency of the avalanche mechanism across a broad range of disruption scenarios. It is found that the parameter ν *,crit ⁠, describing the collisionality at the critical energy to run away, delineates how toroidal geometry impacts RE formation. In particular, utilizing a reduced but self-consistent description of plasma power balance, it is shown that for a high-density deuterium-dominated plasma, ν *,crit is robustly less than one, resulting in a substantial decrease in the efficiency of the RE avalanche compared to predictions from slab geometry. In contrast, for plasmas containing a substantial quantity of neon or argon, ν *,crit ≳1, no reduction of the avalanche is observed due to toroidal geometry. This sharp contrast in the impact of low- vs high-Z material results primarily from the relatively strong radiative cooling from high-Z impurities, enabling the plasma to be radiatively pinned at low temperatures and thus large electric fields, even for modest quantities of high-Z material.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Disruption Mitigation Solutions for Long Pulse Tokamaks (Final Technical Report)

The project "Disruption Mitigation Solutions for Long Pulse Tokamaks" was a collaborative effort between ORNL, GA, and UCSD. The main goal of the project was to study the injection of shattered cryogenic pellets (SPI) as a method of reducing wall damage from global tokamak plasma instabilities called disruptions. This work was primarily carried out in the JET tokamak in the UK. The team already had extensive experience studying PSI in the medium sized DIII-D tokamak in the US, but adding data from the larger JET tokamak enabled more confident extrapolation to the even larger planned ITER tokamak in France. Each of the collaborating institutions focused on different aspects of SPI disruption mitigation. The UCSD collaboration focused on the volume recombination of post-disruption runaway electron (RE) beams by massive hydrogen injection. Disruptions can sometimes result in the formation of toroidal (ring shaped) beams of highly energetic (relativistic) electron beams, which can cause serious local wall damage, even in present-day tokamaks. A promising method to reduce wall damage from the RE beams is to inject massive amounts of H 2 or D 2 into the beams using SPI. although the precise method by which the injected H 2 reducses RE wall damage is still being investigated, it seems clear that a necessary and required step for the reduction to occur is for the H 2 injection to cause volume recombination (free electron density reduction) of the background cold plasma surrounding the fast electron beam. The UCSD collaboration focused on answering the question of if this recombination could be achievable in the future reactor-size tokamak ITER using realistic levels of H 2 injection. A model capturing the most essential physics was developed and was constrained using both DIII-D and JET data. This model was then used to extrapolate to ITER. It was predicted that RE beam recombination should be achievable in ITER, although in the worst-case scenari (a 10 MA Re beam in ITER), recombination is barely achieved within the maximum allowed levels of H 2 injection.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dark matter microhalos from simplified models

Here, we introduce simplified models for enhancements in the matter power spectrum at small scales and study their implications for dark matter substructure and gravitational observables. These models capture the salient aspects of a variety of early Universe scenarios that predict enhanced small-scale structure, such as axionlike particle dark matter, light vector dark matter, and epochs of early matter domination. We use a model-independent, semianalytic treatment to map bumps in the matter power spectrum to early forming subsolar mass dark matter halos and estimate their evolution, disruption, and contribution to the substructure of clusters and galaxies at late times. We discuss the sensitivity of gravitational observables, including pulsar timing arrays and caustic microlensing, to both the presence of bumps in the power spectrum and variations in their basic properties.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Defects and anomalies in powder bed fusion metal additive manufacturing

Metal additive manufacturing is a disruptive technology that is revolutionizing the manufacturing industry. Despite its unrivaled capability for directly fabricating metal parts with complex geometries, the wide realization of the technology is currently limited by microstructural defects and anomalies, which could significantly degrade the structural integrity and service performance of the product. Accurate detection, characterization, and prediction of these defects and anomalies have an important and immediate impact in manufacturing fully-dense and defect-free builds. As such, this review seeks to elucidate common defects/anomalies and their formation mechanisms in powder bed fusion additive manufacturing processes. They could arise from raw materials, processing conditions, and post-processing. While defects/anomalies in laser welding have been studied extensively, their formation and evolution remain unclear. Additionally, the existence of powder in powder bed fusion techniques may generate new types of defects, e.g., porosity transferring from powder to builds. Practical strategies to mitigate defects are also addressed through fundamental understanding of their formation. Such explorations enable the validation and calibration of models and ease the process qualification without costly trial-and-error experimentation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Identification and genetic characterization of mitochondrial citrate transporters in Aspergillus niger

Aspergillus niger is a major cell factory for citric acid production, and the process of citrate export from mitochondria to cytoplasm is predicted to be one of rate-limiting steps in citric acid accumulation. Currently, the mitochondrial citrate transporters (Ctps) in A. niger are not fully characterized. Here, six putative Ctp encoding genes ( ctpA to ctpF ) were identified based on their homology with a mitochondrial citrate transporter Sc Ctp1 from Saccharomyces cerevisiae . Disruption of individual ctpA to ctpF caused varying degrees of decline in citric acid accumulation at different fermentation stages, whereas a mutant strain S1696 with disruption of all six ctp s showed complete loss of citiric acid production. S1696 also exhibited delayed growth, reduced conidia formation, and decreased pigmentogenesis. Exogenous addition of citrate partially restored the conidia formation and pigmentogenesis in S1696 mutant. Reintroduction of individual ctp s ( ctpA to ctpF ) into S1696 at the amyA locus showed that ctpA , ctpB , and ctpD restored the citric acid titers to 88.5, 93.8, and 94.6% of the parent strain, respectively. Additionally, the formation of conidia and pigment production was partially restored after reintroduction of ctpA , ctpB , or ctpD . Overexpression of respective ctpA , ctpB , and ctpD in the parent strain resulted in increases in citric acid accumulation by 32.8, 19.3, and 24.2%, respectively. These results demonstrate that CtpA, CtpB, and CtpD play important roles in citric acid transport across the mitochondrial membrane and function in a redundant manner. Enhancement of citric acid transport process can serve as a target for boosting citric acid accumulation in A. niger .

Cao, Wei↗
DOE OSTI2024

On discriminating tokamak sawtooth crash models via localized density and temperature measurements

The core electron temperature drops rapidly during the sawtooth crash in tokamak plasmas, which causes heat loss and may lead to fast particle losses or even a disruption. Several models have been proposed for the periodic crash, including the Kadomtsev model with magnetic reconnection and the quasi-interchange model with the growth of higher-mode-number pressure-driven instabilities. 3D MHD simulations were performed for these two models with a goal to develop intuition and to predict qualitatively how different types of sawtooth will appear in various diagnostics. The structures of electron density ne and electron temperature Te show a dominant (1, 1) mode for the Kadomtsev case and a dominant (4, 4) mode for the quasi-interchange case. The oscillations of ne and Te have a positive correlation near the inversion layer for both cases, while their frequencies and amplitudes are different depending on the dominant modes. Particularly, for the Kadomtsev case, we find a relation between the amount of flux reconnected during a sawtooth event and ne or Te oscillations. Therefore, we connect recently developed measurement capabilities for ne and Te to the internal sawtooth behavior. We propose that this method of analysis can help in identifying the type of sawtooth in future experiments augmented by simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Autonomous Cyber Defense Against Dynamic Multi-strategy Infrastructural DDoS Attacks

Dynamic Infrastructural Distributed Denial of Service (I-DDoS) attacks constantly change attack vectors to congest core backhaul links and disrupt critical network availability while evading end-system defenses. To effectively counter these highly dynamic attacks, defense mechanisms need to exhibit adaptive decision strategies for real-time mitigation. This paper presents a novel Autonomous DDoS Defense framework that employs model-based reinforcement agents. The framework continuously learns attack strategies, predicts attack actions, and dynamically determines the optimal composition of defense tactics such as filtering, limiting, and rerouting for flow diversion. Our contributions include extending the underlying formulation of the Markov Decision Process (MDP) to address simultaneous DDoS attack and defense behavior, and accounting for environmental uncertainties. We also propose a fine-grained action mitigation approach robust to classification inaccuracies in Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS). Additionally, our reinforcement learning model demonstrates resilience against evasion and deceptive attacks. Evaluation experiments using real-world and simulated DDoS traces demonstrate that our autonomous defense framework ensures the delivery of approximately 96 - 98% of benign traffic despite the diverse range of attack strategies.

Dutta, Ashutosh↗
DOE OSTI2025

Long-lived neutron-star remnants from asymmetric binary neutron star mergers: element formation, kilonova signals and gravitational waves

We present 3D general-relativistic neutrino-radiation hydrodynamics simulations of two asymmetric binary neutron star mergers producing long-lived neutron stars remnants and spanning a fraction of their cooling time scale. The mergers are characterized by significant tidal disruption with neutron rich material forming a massive disc around the remnant. The latter develops one-armed dynamics that is imprinted in the emitted kilo-Hertz gravitational waves. Angular momentum transport to the disc is initially driven by spiral-density waves and enhanced by turbulent viscosity and neutrino heating on longer timescales. The mass outflows are composed by neutron-rich dynamical ejecta of mass ∼10 −3 –10 −2 M ⊙ followed by a persistent spiral-wave/neutrino-driven wind of ≳ 10 −2 M ⊙ with material spanning a wide range of electron fractions, ∼0.1–0.55. Dynamical ejecta (winds) have fast velocity tails up to ∼0.8 (∼0.4) c. The outflows are further evolved to days timescale using 2D ray-by-ray radiation-hydrodynamics simulations that include an online nuclear network. We find complete r-process yields and identify the production of 56 Ni and the subsequent decay chain to 56 Co and 56 Fe. Synthetic kilonova light curves predict an extended (near-) infrared peak a few days postmerger originating from r-process in the neutron-rich/high-opacity ejecta and UV/optical peaks at a few hours (ten minutes) postmerger originating from weak r-process (free-neutron decay) in the faster ejecta components. Additionally, the fast tail of tidal origin generates kilonova afterglows potentially detectable in radio and X band on a few to ten years time scale. Quantitative effects originating from the tidal disruption merger dynamics are reflected in the multimessenger emissions.

abundances↗
DOE OSTI2026

Identification of pressure points in modern power systems using transfer entropy

Power shortages disrupt daily life, economic activity, and essential services. In modern power systems, weather is an increasingly important driver of reliability: high temperatures raise demand and limit transmission capacity, and calm or cloudy periods reduce wind and solar supply. Using a data-driven analysis, this study identifies grid infrastructure whose operating patterns help predict power shortages. The results show that reliability risks often emerge from interacting stresses across generation, transmission, and demand, rather than from single bottlenecks. By clarifying how system stress propagates through the grid, this diagnostic perspective helps explain why shortages occur under specific conditions and can complement traditional planning and operational tools to support adaptive reliability strategies, targeted monitoring, and coordinated infrastructure investments.

power systems↗
DOE OSTI2021

Metabolic Model of the Nitrogen-Fixing Obligate Aerobe Azotobacter vinelandii Predicts Its Adaptation to Oxygen Concentration and Metal Availability

There is considerable interest in promoting biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) as a mechanism to reduce the inputs of nitrogenous fertilizers in agriculture, but considerable fundamental knowledge gaps still need to be addressed. BNF is catalyzed by nitrogenase, which requires a large input of energy in the form of ATP and low potential electrons. Diazotrophs that respire aerobically have an advantage in meeting the ATP demands of BNF but face challenges in protecting nitrogenase from inactivation by oxygen. Here, we constructed a genome-scale metabolic model of the nitrogen-fixing bacterium Azotobacter vinelandii, which uses a complex respiratory protection mechanism to consume oxygen at a high rate to keep intracellular conditions microaerobic. Our model accurately predicts growth rate under high oxygen and substrate concentrations, consistent with a large electron flux directed to the respiratory protection mechanism. While a partially decoupled electron transport chain compensates for some of the energy imbalance under high-oxygen conditions, it does not account for all substrate intake, leading to increased maintenance rates. Interestingly, the respiratory protection mechanism is required for accurate predictions even when ammonia is supplemented during growth, suggesting that the respiratory protection mechanism might be a core principle of metabolism and not just used for nitrogenase protection. We have also shown that rearrangement of flux through the electron transport system allows A. vinelandii to adapt to different oxygen concentrations, metal availability, and genetic disruption, which cause an ammonia excretion phenotype. Accurately determining the energy balance in an aerobic nitrogen-fixing metabolic model is required for future engineering approaches.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A physics-informed deep learning model of the hot tail runaway electron seed

A challenging aspect of the description of a tokamak disruption is evaluating the hot tail runaway electron seed that emerges during the thermal quench. This problem is made challenging due to the requirement of describing a strongly non-thermal electron distribution, together with the need to incorporate a diverse range of multiphysics processes, including magnetohydrodynamic instabilities, impurity transport, and radiative losses. Here this work develops a physics-informed neural network (PINN) tailored to the solution of the hot tail seed during an axisymmetric thermal quench. Here, a PINN is developed to identify solutions to the adjoint relativistic Fokker–Planck equation in the presence of a rapid quench of the plasma's thermal energy. It is shown that the PINN is able to accurately predict the hot tail seed across a range of parameters, including the thermal quench timescale, initial plasma temperature, and local current density, in the absence of experimental or simulation data. The hot tail PINN is verified by comparison with direct Monte Carlo simulations, with excellent agreement found across a broad range of thermal quench conditions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Contesting with the Ganges Water Machine in South Asia: Theory versus Reality

Recently, there has been much interest in how to manage the water resources of the Ganges River Basin (GRB), the cradle of Asian civilization, currently supporting >500 million people. This also includes cleaning up the Ganges river, regarded as one of the most polluted mega-rivers of the world. Historically, the transboundary Ganges river and its tributaries, flowing through India, Nepal, and Bangladesh, have become extensively polluted and disrupted, mostly because of river engineering and increased discharge of industrial and urban waste. Compounding the problem, in the past few decades, intense groundwater abstraction from the GRB aquifers has led to unprecedented groundwater level depletion in some locations. At present, the GRB groundwater levels are strongly influenced by depth-dependent abstraction, which is predicted to intensify in the future, given the increasing water demand. Therefore, with impending climate change, designing the coupled river water–groundwater management necessary to meet the goal for sustainable access to clean water for a huge population, has become an arduous challenge.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cesium exhibits different mesoscale segregation and ion pairing than lithium, sodium, or potassium in concentrated alkaline aqueous nitrite solutions

Understanding ion pairing in concentrated alkaline electrolytes facilitates the prediction and control of chemical processes in nuclear waste. While sodium is the dominant alkali metal in such systems, cesium often exhibits distinct bulk behavior relative to lighter alkali cations. Aqueous mixtures of cesium hydroxide and sodium nitrite were compared to alkali hydroxide analogs using small-angle x-ray scattering, revealing that cesium disrupts the sodium nitrite electrolyte structure, forming cesium-rich domains. This mesoscale segregation contrasts with the near-ideal mixing observed in other mixed hydroxide–nitrite systems. Raman spectroscopy indicates cesium–nitrite ion pairing, evidenced by vibrational shifts distinct from those associated with sodium. Multinuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy further supports cesium–nitrite and cesium–hydroxide association, revealing a distinct local environment for nitrite in cesium-containing solutions. Together, these findings show that cesium promotes a unique solution structure dominated by specific ion pairing within segregated domains. This structural organization may influence radical generation pathways in high-ionic-strength alkaline media relevant to nuclear waste processing and management.

Nienhuis, Emily T. [Pacific Northwest National Lab↗
DOE OSTI2023

Role of nanoscale coherent precipitates on the thermo-mechanical response of martensitic materials (Final Report)

Coherent second phases can have a profound effect on the properties and performance of martensitic materials, and we lack a comprehensive, mechanistic understanding of the underlying processes. This limits our ability to rationally design second phases to tailor the response of martensitic materials. To address this situation, this project sought to develop a mechanistic, predictive understanding of the thermal and mechanical response of martensitic materials with nanoscale coherent heterogeneities. A synergistic combination of atomistic simulations and experiments was used to relate the local properties of each phase (in particular, their free energy landscape) and the material nanostructure (volume fraction, shape and size of second phase precipitates, and defects that may disrupt coherency) to the overall materials response. The focus was on second phases expected to induce phenomena or properties not otherwise achievable: second order martensitic transformation in SMAs, ultra-low stiffness, increased control of transition temperatures, and fatigue resistance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility Inadvertent Human Intruder Limits and Doses in Support of the PA2022

This report documents the inadvertent human intruder (IHI) analysis for the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (ELLWF) at the Savannah River Site (SRS), near Aiken, South Carolina. This analysis supports the revised ELLWF Performance Assessment (PA), complying with the Department of Energy standard for operation of low-level waste disposal facilities (USDOE, 2017). The ELLWF is an operating waste disposal facility and is scheduled to continue accepting waste to 2065. One task of the revised PA is to establish waste inventory limits for the various disposal units at ELLWF. This is done by modeling future contaminant release and transport through applicable pathways to human receptors, comparing predicted doses per disposed curie with applicable performance measures, to obtain inventory limits which will assure that doses to receptors do not exceed performance measures. This report documents results of modeling future doses to one class of receptor, the inadvertent human intruder. It is assumed that after site closure, public knowledge of the site is lost, and IHIs will engage in activities on the ELLWF that will disrupt the closure cap, causing dose to the IHI. Following USDOE (2017), six different stylized exposure scenarios are considered, simulating activities by an IHI which could result in a radiological dose. The six scenarios are: • Acute – Basement Construction: IHI constructs a basement and encounters waste during excavation which is inadvertently mixed with clean soil and diluted. • Acute – Well Drilling: IHI drills a water well through waste and is exposed to drill cuttings mixed with clean soil that are brought to the surface. • Acute – Discovery: IHI begins constructing a basement but stops when encountering the riprap in the final closure cap and is exposed to photon radiation from unexcavated material residing in the undisturbed waste zone. • Chronic – Agriculture: Resident IHI is exposed to waste that was excavated for basement construction and mixed with native soil in the intruder’s vegetable garden. • Chronic – Post-Drilling: Resident IHI is exposed to waste from drill cuttings mixed with native soil and scattered in the garden area. • Chronic – Residential: Resident IHI is exposed to external radiation while in home located above waste with shielding provided by the concrete basement floor and any soil or engineered material remaining between the basement and waste. Dose calculations are performed using the SRNL Dose Toolkit (Aleman, 2023), following the approach of Smith et al (2019). Calculations are performed separately for 27 of the 33 disposal units (DUs) at ELLWF and are radionuclide specific. The results of the IHI analysis include: • Dose Factors: mrem per disposed curie (acute) and mrem/yr per disposed curie (chronic) for each parent radionuclide, for each DU. • Inventory Limits: in curies, for each parent radionuclide, for each DU. • Estimated Dose to IHI: mrem (acute) and mrem/yr (chronic), for each DU, given its projected closure inventory without inventory biases applied. Most DU-specific IHI inventory limits are in the range of 10 3 to 10 7 curies per nuclide. The lowest inventory limits are associated with gamma-emitters such as Sn-126, Ra-226, Th-232, and Cm-248. Radionuclides with short half-lives such as Pu-241, and nuclides which are pure beta emitters or which decay by electron capture, such as Ni-59 and Ni-63, have the highest limits. For the 27 evaluated DUs, predicted IHI doses are shown in Table ES-1. The maximum acute dose is 1.18 mrem, at ST23, much less than the DOE performance measure of 500 mrem (USDOE, 2017). The highest chronic dose is 37.2 mrem/yr at ST02, below the DOE performance measure of 100 mrem/yr. Also shown are estimated inventory sums of fractions (SOFs) at closure in 2065, for groundwater (GW) and IHI pathways. For each DU, the inventory is constrained by the GW pathway. For most DUs, the IHI SOFs are approximately 1000 times lower than the GW SOF values, and the IHI pathway does not drive risk for any disposal unit.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Short-Range Weather Forecasts through Temporal Variation Encoding: A Multiperiod Embedding Approach

Machine learning (ML) techniques have emerged as promising approaches to improve regional weather forecast accuracy and reliability through data-driven methods. We propose a novel ML-based weather forecasting model, the Multiperiod Embed Net (MPENet). A key distinguishing feature of MPENet is its explicit utilization of the inherent cyclic nature in weather dynamics, unlike the autoregressive strategies commonly used in other ML weather forecasting approaches. Critical cyclic structures are identified via Fourier analyses of dynamic time series. Cyclicity in the convolutional representation is achieved by transforming one-dimensional time series of meteorological variables into two-dimensional tensors based on identified periods. This approach enables the model to leverage intrinsic weather patterns, enhancing regional forecast performance. To demonstrate the effectiveness of MPENet, we conduct a comparative analysis with Nvidia’s FourCastNet. Both models are trained on High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) data from 2015 to 2022, over a 192 km × 192 km region in Tennessee. The comparisons are performed locally at two specific locations known to have different weather dynamics due to orographic effects: Crossville, on the relatively flat Cumberland Plateau with fewer topographic airflow disruptions, and Oak Ridge, in the ridge-and-valley region, where airflow is heavily influenced by surrounding valleys and mountains. Our results indicate that FourCastNet achieves strong accuracy at very short lead times, while MPENet maintains competitive skill and shows advantages in capturing temporal evolution over longer periods. Cross-correlation analyses of MPENet and FourCastNet predictions with the HRRR data suggest that encoding critical cyclicity into the network architecture leads to improvements in the forecasting skill.

Artificial intelligence↗