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DOE OSTI2023

Understanding and control of Zener pinning via phase field and ensemble learning

Zener pinning refers to the dispersion of fine particles which influences grain size distribution via movement of grain boundaries in a polycrystalline material. Grain size distribution in polycrystals has a significant impact on their properties including physical, chemical, mechanical, and optical to name a few. We explore the use of Phase-field modeling and machine-learning techniques to understand and improve the control of grain size distribution via Zener pinning in polycrystalline materials. We develop a machine learning model that determines the relative importance of various parameters to exercise microstructure control via Zener pinning. Our workflow combines high-throughput phase-field simulations and machine learning to address the computational bottlenecks associated with large-scale simulations as well as identify features necessary for microstructure control in polycrystals. A random forest (RF) regression model was developed to predict grain sizes based on five Phase-field model parameters, achieving an average prediction error of 0.72 nm for the training data and 1.44 nm for the test data. The importance of the input parameters is analyzed using the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) approach which reveals that diffusivity, volume fraction, and particle diameter are the most important parameters in determining the final grain size. These findings will allow us to select the best second-phase particles, optimize grain size distributions and thus design microstructures with the desired properties. The developed method is a highly versatile and generalizable approach that can be used to assess the combined effects of individual features in the presence of multiple variables.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Neoclassical toroidal viscosity torque prediction via deep learning

GPECnet is a densely connected neural network that has been trained on GPEC data, to predict the plasma stability, neoclassical toroidal viscosity (NTV) torque, and optimized 3D coil current distributions for desired NTV torque profiles. Using NTV torque, driven by non-axisymmetric field perturbations in a tokamak, can be vital in optimizing pedestal performance by controlling the rotation profile in both the core, to ensure tearing stability, and the edge, to avoid edge localized modes (ELMs). The generalized perturbed equilibrium code (GPEC) software package can be used to calculate the plasma stability to 3D perturbations and the NTV torque profile generated by applied 3D magnetic fields. These calculations, however, involve complex integrations over space and energy distributions, which takes time to compute. Initially, GPECnet has been trained solely on data representative of the quiescent H-mode (QH) scenario, in which neutral beams are often balanced and toroidal rotation is low across the plasma profile. Lastly, this work provides the foundation for active control of the rotation shear using a combination of beams and 3D fields for robust and high performance QH mode operation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Topography and Functional Traits Control the Distribution of Key Shrub Plant Functional Types in Low-Arctic Tundra: Supporting Data

High-resolution classification maps derived from occupied aerial systems (UASs). The UAS data were collected in August 2021 using a Skydio 2+ drone equipped with a 4K resolution red-green-blue (RGB) camera (2024 Skydio Inc) and a 3DR SOLO Quadcopter carried a Parrot Sequoia+ Multispectral Sensor (2023 Parrot Drone SAS). This package includes vegetation classification maps at four locations around Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment Arctic (NGEE Arctic) Council watershed study site on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. The classification maps were generated using a combination of RGB and canopy height information. The map data and metadata are provided as ENVI image (.dat) and text (.txt, *hdr) formats. Additional map quicklooks are provided as GIS *.kml files. These datasets are provided in support of Yang et al., (In review), “Topography and Functional Traits Control the Distribution of Key Shrub Plant Functional Types in Low-Arctic Tundra”.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a 15-year research effort (2012-2027) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Four-dimensional phase-space reconstruction of flat and magnetized beams using neural networks and differentiable simulations

Beams with cross-plane coupling or extreme asymmetries between the two transverse phase spaces are often encountered in particle accelerators. Flat beams with large transverse-emittance ratios are critical for future linear colliders. Similarly, magnetized beams with significant cross-plane coupling are expected to enhance the performance of electron cooling in hadron beams. Preparing these beams requires precise control and characterization of the four-dimensional transverse phase space. In this study, we employ generative phase-space reconstruction techniques to rapidly characterize magnetized and flat-beam phase-space distributions using a conventional quadrupole-scan method. The reconstruction technique is experimentally demonstrated on an electron beam produced at the Argonne Wakefield Accelerator and successfully benchmarked against conventional diagnostics techniques. Specifically, we show that predicted beam parameters from the reconstructed phase-space distributions (e.g., as magnetization and flat-beam emittances) are in excellent agreement with those measured from the conventional diagnostic methods. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Measurement of free chlorine levels in water using potentiometric responses of biofilms and applications for monitoring and managing the quality of potable water

We report residual free chlorine is not monitored continuously at scale in drinking water distribution systems because existing real-time sensor technologies require frequent maintenance, cleaning, and calibration, which makes these products too costly to be used throughout a distribution system. As a result, current measurement approaches require manual sampling, which is not feasible for the consistent monitoring of free chlorine because chlorine concentrations vary significantly throughout pipeline distribution and over time and space. This research presents an alternative and cost-effective method of predicting free chlorine levels in drinking water using graphite electrodes coated with naturally grown microbial biofilms. This Microbial Potentiometric Sensor (MPS) array was installed in a Continuously Mixed Batch Reactor (CMBR), and drinking water containing variable free chlorine concentrations. The chlorine concentrations were introduced in a controlled manner, and the MPS signals were monitored over time. MPS signals were measured from the change in Open Circuit Potential (OCP) across the MPS array in real-time. An empirically derived relationship between the normalized change in OCP and free chlorine was established by fitting individual and average MPS data to a decaying exponential growth function in order to predict free chlorine levels. The results show that free chlorine can be predicted with reasonable accuracy, with model validation showing an average absolute error of ±0.09 ppm below 1.1 ppm and ±0.30 ppm between 1.1 and 2.7 ppm. However, the accuracy of predictions was reduced at higher free chlorine levels. The researchers conclude that MPS systems may benefit drinking water distribution systems by measuring free chlorine. These advantages of the MPS are especially pronounced in the developing world because this system is inexpensive and does not require routine maintenance or cleaning. The system relies on a naturally forming and regenerating biofilm and an inexpensive potentiometric meter to produce stable measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Design and analysis of a wake steering controller with wind direction variability

Wind farm control strategies are being developed to mitigate wake losses in wind farms, increasing energy production. Wake steering is a type of wind farm control in which a wind turbine's yaw position is misaligned from the wind direction, causing its wake to deflect away from downstream turbines. Current modeling tools used to optimize and estimate energy gains from wake steering are designed to represent wakes for fixed wind directions. However, wake steering controllers must operate in dynamic wind conditions and a turbine's yaw position cannot perfectly track changing wind directions. Research has been conducted on robust wake steering control optimized for variable wind directions. In this paper, the design and analysis of a wake steering controller with wind direction variability is presented for a two-turbine array using the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) control-oriented wake model. First, the authors propose a method for modeling the turbulent and low-frequency components of the wind direction, where the slowly varying wind direction serves as the relevant input to the wake model. Next, we explain a procedure for finding optimal yaw offsets for dynamic wind conditions considering both wind direction and yaw position uncertainty. We then performed simulations with the optimal yaw offsets applied using a realistic yaw offset controller in conjunction with a baseline yaw controller, showing good agreement with the predicted energy gain using the probabilistic model. Using the Gaussian wake model in FLORIS as an example, we compared the performance of yaw offset controllers optimized for static and dynamic wind conditions for different turbine spacings and turbulence intensity values, assuming uniformly distributed wind directions. For a spacing of five rotor diameters and a turbulence intensity of 10 %, robust yaw offsets optimized for variable wind directions yielded an energy gain equivalent to 3.24 % of wake losses recovered, compared to 1.42 % of wake losses recovered with yaw offsets optimized for static wind directions. In general, accounting for wind direction variability in the yaw offset optimization process was found to improve energy production more as the separation distance increased, whereas the relative improvement remained roughly the same for the range of turbulence intensity values considered.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

On the Low Risk of SSR in Type III Wind Turbines Operating with Grid-Forming Control

We have shown in previous work that the risk of subsynchronous resonance between wind power plants with Type III wind turbines and series-compensated transmission lines is low when the wind turbines are operated in grid-forming (GFM) mode instead of the standard grid-following mode. This paper explains the fundamental mechanism behind the improved damping characteristics by modeling the positive- and negative-sequence impedances of Type III wind turbines in GFM control mode. Here it is discovered that the GFM control naturally acts against the negative resistance behavior of Type III wind turbines at subsynchronous frequencies that results from an interaction between the rotor-side converter current controller and negative slip. The developed impedance models in the sequence domain and the improved damping behavior are verified using PSCAD simulations of a 2.5-MW Type III GFM wind turbine. The modeling predictions are also supported by experimentally measuring the impedance response of a 2.5-MW Type III wind turbine in GFM mode.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Probabilistic Evaluation of Geomechanical Risks in CO2 Storage: An Exploration of Caprock Integrity Metrics Using a Multilaminate Model

The probabilistic uncertainty assessment of geomechanical risk—specifically, caprock failure—attributable to CO2 injection, as presented in a simplified hypothetical geological model, was the focus of this study. Our approach amalgamates the implementation of a multilaminate model, the creation of a response surface model in conjunction with the Box–Behnken sampling design, the execution of associated numerical modeling experiments, and the utilization of Monte Carlo simulations. Probability distributions to encapsulate the inherent variability (elastic and mechanical properties of the caprock and reservoir) and uncertainty in prediction estimates (vertical displacement, total strain, and F value) were employed. Our findings reveal that the Young modulus of the caprock is a key factor controlling equivalent total strain but is insufficient as a stand-alone indicator of caprock integrity. It is confirmed that the caprock can accommodate significant deformation without failure, if it possesses a low Young’s modulus and high mechanical strength properties, such as the friction angle and uniaxial compressive strength. Similarly, vertical displacement was found to be an unreliable indicator for caprock integrity, as caprock failure can occur across a broad spectrum of vertical displacements, particularly when both the Young modulus and mechanical strength properties have wide ranges. This study introduces the F value as the most dependable indicator for caprock failure, although it is a theoretical attribute (the shortest distance between the Mohr circle and the nearest failure envelope used to measure the sensitivity to failure) and not physically measurable in the field. Deviatoric stress levels were found to vary based on stress regimes, with the maximum levels observed under extensive and compressive stress regimes. In conjunction with the use of the response surface method, this study demonstrates the efficacy of the multilaminate framework and the Mohr–Coulomb constitutive model in providing a simplified, yet effective, probabilistic model of the mechanical behavior of caprock failure, reducing mathematical and computational complexities.

Energy & Fuels↗

DOE OSTI2020

SunDial – An Integrated SHINES System to Enable High-penetration Feeder-level PV

The Project Team of Fraunhofer USA, National Grid, and IPKeys developed and conducted a pilot deployment of the SunDial system, a virtual power plant platform that enables high-penetrations of solar PV to be integrated into the distribution grid. The pilot was conducted over a 15-month period from August 2018 through October 2019 on a National Grid distribution feeder in Shirley, MA. A vendor-agnostic control platform (the “Global Scheduler”) optimally shaped the net load for a virtual portfolio of non-co-located DERs based on user-defined policy objectives. The goal of the SunDial project was to simplify and reduce the risk associated with the deployment of solar in high-penetration environments by: (1) Developing an open-source, vendor-agnostic dispatch platform that can be readily adapted to optimize control of DERs over a variety of use cases; (2) Developing auto-calibrating load and solar prediction methodologies that can be readily implemented and scaled to new deployments; (3) Developing a methodology to use demand-side management with traditional electrochemical energy storage to provide “load shaping” services in high solar penetration environments; (4) Using grid-scale storage to minimize short-term intermittency association with PV production; and (5) Deploying on the National Grid distribution system to gain experience on the potential for (and limits of) integrated storage with demand-side management.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Genetic underpinnings of arthropod community distributions in Populus trichocarpa

Community genetics seeks to understand the mechanisms by which natural genetic variation in heritable host phenotypes can encompass assemblages of organisms such as bacteria, fungi, and many animals including arthropods. Prior studies that focused on plant genotypes have been unable to identify genes controlling community composition, a necessary step to predict ecosystem structure and function as underlying genes shift within plant populations. Here, we surveyed arthropods within an association population of Populus trichocarpa in three common gardens to discover plant genes that contributed to arthropod community composition. We analyzed our surveys with traditional single-trait genome-wide association analysis (GWAS), multitrait GWAS, and functional networks built from a diverse set of plant phenotypes. Plant genotype was influential in structuring arthropod community composition among several garden sites. Candidate genes important for higher level organization of arthropod communities had broadly applicable functions, such as terpenoid biosynthesis and production of dsRNA binding proteins and protein kinases, which may be capable of targeting multiple arthropod species. We have demonstrated the ability to detect, in an uncontrolled environment, individual genes that are associated with the community assemblage of arthropods on a host plant, further enhancing our understanding of genetic mechanisms that impact ecosystem structure.

Community genetics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cybersecurity for Grid Connected eXtreme Fast Charging (XFC) Station (CyberX) (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

This report summarizes the activities conducted under the DOE VTO funded project DE- EE0008451, where ABB Inc. (ABB), in collaboration with Idaho National Laboratory (INL), APS Global (APS), and XOS Trucks (XOS) pursued the development of a cyber-resilient extreme fast charging (XFC) management system. This project entitled Cybersecurity for Grid Connected eXtreme Fast Charging (XFC) Station (CyberX) focuses on a resilient architecture for smart charging EV Supply Equipment (EVSE) device control and Coordinated Anomaly Detection System (CADS) features that can be added at the charging site depot level to increase cybersecurity. The project was split into two budget periods focused first on developing the threat model and resilient control concepts and second on testing, improving, and validating those developed resilient control algorithms and features with a focus on key vulnerabilities identified during the threat assessment portion of the project. During the first budget period of the CyberX project, the ABB led team focused on activities to identify, model, and quantitatively prioritize high-impact attack scenarios with potential cyber-physical effects while also modeling and developing concepts for a resilient control system that could securely address integration of DERs and other resources with EV charging. Development of the security focused XFC management system (XMS) was accomplished first by offline simulation using a developed XFC station or depot with 480V input level and simulating measurement inputs to monitoring and control systems in concept development. A representative distribution grid model was developed supporting an EV charging site model with BESS and 6 general EV charging models. These EV charging models allowed multiple configurations of charging level, multiple connected protection and measurement devices, and simulation function to show general compromise of EV, BESS, and protection features based on parallel threat analysis. During the second budget period, the EV site and supporting systems model was developed in more detail and converted from offline model to real-time to real-time with EV charging hardware in the loop (HIL). The resilient control architecture developed as concept in the first part of the project was further tested and validated for integration of local energy resources and XFC charging station site equipment while maintaining cybersecure operating principles. The proposed resilient architecture for smart charging and cybersecurity features consists of two main concepts developed and tested within the project. The first concept is an XFC management system (XMS) consisting of a hardware gateway, software platform, and Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) or Distribution Management System integration components. The second concept is a Coordinated Anomaly Detection System (CADS) which forms a primarily software-related subsystem of the total CyberX solution focused on monitoring system measurements, estimation of measurement states, and predicting current at the utility point of interaction based on machine learning for anomaly detection.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling and Simulation of Inrush Currents in Harmonic Domain

Modeling and simulation capabilities are critical to the stability analysis and evaluation of power distribution systems, with respect to the emphasis on resiliency, microgrids, and distributed energy resources. In this paper, a computational method in the harmonic domain is proposed for the periodic steady-state analysis of the nonlinear inrush current phenomenon. The efficient inrush calculation facilitates the predictions of current amplitudes for the power system operation and control. To demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency, simulation results in the harmonic domain are compared with results from PSCAD in an electromagnetic timescale, as well as the authors’ previous works in the frequency-domain. Impacts of the settings of both offset flux and interested harmonic order are discussed. In addition, within the proposed harmonic-domain method, a general approach that utilizes the discrete Fourier transform to obtain the response of a nonlinear device from a stimulus represented in the frequency-domain is utilized. This method can also be extended to perform the transient analysis in future, using trapezoidal rule for the integration.

Xie, Jing↗

DOE OSTI2026

Comparative Analysis of Model Predictive Control and MPC-Informed Rule-Based Control for Thermal Storage Operation in Ultra-Low Temperature 4th Generation District Heating Networks

The integration of thermal storage and heat pumps in district heating networks (DHNs) can significantly enhance operational flexibility and energy efficiency; however, the practical deployment of advanced control strategies is often hindered by forecasting requirements and computational complexity. This study presents a comparative analysis of thermal storage control strategies in an ultra-low-temperature fourth-generation DHN, focusing on the development of a simplified rule-based control (RBC) explicitly informed by Model Predictive Control (MPC) behavior. The proposed methodology systematically analyzes the charging and discharging decisions of an MPC-controlled system under ideal forecasting conditions and extracts recurrent control patterns as a function of key system variables, including outdoor temperature, thermal demand, and electricity price. These patterns are translated into a set of structured time- and condition-based rules, resulting in an MPC-informed RBC that embeds predictive insights while preserving implementation simplicity and operational transparency. The approach is validated on a realistic mixed-use urban district in Denver, Colorado, USA, equipped with a centralized air-source heat pump, distributed water-to-water heat pumps, and a central thermal storage unit. Results show that the tuned RBC attains approximately 96% of ideal MPC economic performance (-27% of costs), preserves values of technical and environmental indicators (reduction only of 2-3%), and substantially reduces complexity. Sensitivity analyses further demonstrate the robustness of the RBC under varying operational conditions (i.e., ambient temperature, electricity price). Overall, the study demonstrates that MPC-informed rule-based control represents an effective trade-off between control performance and real-world applicability, enabling the integration of additional system components while maintaining simplicity, robustness, and ease of implementation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Poincaré beams from a free electron laser

Poincaré beams are light beams that have spatially inhomogeneous polarization structure that spans a finite portion of the Poincaré sphere. This feature bestows the beams with intriguing topological properties and has led to a surge in research on their fundamental characteristics, their controlled generation and on emerging applications. Here we present an experimental demonstration of a Poincaré beam generated in the extreme ultraviolet (16.7 nm) at the FERMI free electron laser (FEL). The ‘star’ type Poincaré beam is generated by exploiting the phase and intensity structure intrinsic to FEL radiation without relying on optical elements. Here, we controlled the spatial polarization distribution through a precise overlap and power balance between two FEL pulses, each with different transverse phase distributions and orthogonal circular polarizations. The spatial polarization structure was mapped in detail and shows extensive coverage of the Poincaré sphere, in agreement with analytic predictions. This method of in situ Poincaré beam production in FELs enables straightforward flexibility in the orientation and balance of polarization states, and can readily be extended to other vector beams and to shorter wavelengths enabling novel science applications in modern light sources.

Morgan, Jenny [SLAC National Accelerator Laborator↗

DOE OSTI2022

SolarPlus Optimizer: Integrated Control of Solar, Batteries, and Flexible Loads for Small Commercial Buildings

Building-level microgrids may be a key strategy to unlock the combined potential of flexible loads, renewable generation, and energy storage. However, few software options exist for integrated control of building loads and other distributed energy resources at this scale. The commercial software solutions on the market can force customers to adopt one particular ecosystem of products, thus limiting consumer choice. The SolarPlus Optimizer (SPO) is an open-source building-level microgrid control platform that uses Model Predictive Control to optimize both building loads and behind-the-meter energy storage to reduce energy bills and increase demand flexibility. This paper evaluates the capabilities of SPO in a small commercial building in Northern California under multiple electricity tariffs and demand response scenarios. Comparing SPO operation with an emulated battery and baseline operation employing a commercial optimization service, SPO reduced electricity bills by an estimated 7.3% in summer, 3.2% in spring, and 3.7% in winter. In a “load shape” scenario meant to counter the “duck curve”, SPO achieved 71% fewer violations from the load signal than the baseline control method. During a three hour long load shed event, SPO reduced cooling and refrigeration load by 38%. This research shows significant potential to provide load flexibility for building-level microgrids for this type of control systems. Finally, the paper discusses the future direction of research on open-source control systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Global particle buildup simulations with gas puff scan: application to WEST discharge

This paper deals with the distribution of sources, transport, and exhaust of particles in a tokamak. Knowledge and understanding of all the physical phenomena involved in the global particle buildup are necessary to study and predict density regimes and subsequently to develop optimized scenarios for tokamak operation in order to control heat and particle exhaust. Neutral particles and their interactions with plasma are central in this perspective. This paper discusses the impact of varying the intensity of particle fueling in 2D transport simulations of a WEST discharge. Simulations are performed with an updated version of SOLEDGE-HDG that allows a more realistic transport of neutrals using a self-consistent diffusive model based on charge exchange and ionization processes. New code capabilities allow the entire WEST poloidal cross section to be simulated in a realistic configuration for both geometry and the range of control parameters. A gas puff scan illustrates the main features of the sheath-limited, high-recycling, and detached regimes, such as the buildup of the temperature gradient and the pressure drop in the scrape-off layer (SOL), the target temperature falling to 1 eV, and the ionization source moving away from the targets, as well as the particle flux rollover. A crude estimate of wall erosion is also provided, showing the respective role of each plasma wall component in each of these regimes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Can classical DEM simultaneously capture compressibility and flowability of milled biomass?

Accurate prediction of the rheological behavior of biomass is essential for the design and operation of hoppers, feeders, and storage systems in biorefineries. This study examines whether the classical, coarse-grained discrete element method (DEM) formulation can simultaneously reproduce the compressibility and flowability of milled herbaceous biomass, using Miscanthus × giganteus as a representative material. The model represents particles as rigid spheres interacting through Hertz-Mindlin elastic-frictional contacts augmented with an area-dependent cohesion term. Laboratory cyclic compression and wedge-shaped hopper discharge experiments were used as calibration benchmarks. Although the model can independently reproduce each behavior by appropriately tuning particle Young's modulus E and cohesion energy density k, an extensive parametric investigation comprising more than 600 simulations reveals that the optimal parameter regions for compression and hopper flow are distinct and non-overlapping in (E, k) space. Surrogate surface analysis further shows that the corresponding objective-function valleys exhibit similar trends but are approximately parallel and spatially offset, precluding a unified calibration within the explored domain. Sensitivity analysis indicates that compressibility is governed predominantly by stiffness and cohesion, whereas the slope of the mass flow rate-opening relation in hopper discharge is primarily controlled by tangential friction. Extensions incorporating particle size distribution and clumped-sphere representations do not eliminate the incompatibility. These results systematically reveal, for the first time, the structural limitation of simplified DEM formulations in representing biomass rheological behavior, underscoring the necessity for models incorporating additional physical mechanisms, such as particle deformability or enhanced interlocking, to achieve unified predictive capability for biomass handling behavior.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sequence-to-sequence neural networks for short-term electrical load forecasting in commercial office buildings

The U.S. power grid is transforming to become smarter, cleaner, and more effi- cient. This is leading to the addition of significant distributed variable renew- able generation. Due to the variable nature of renewable generation, the short- and long-term supply-demand imbalances are less predictable, and conventional approaches to mitigating the imbalance will not be efficient or cost-effective. To address this challenge, transactive control technologies have been proposed which balance energy generation and consumption with market activity and in- frastructural limitations. Transactive control requires the ability of individual end-use loads to express flexibility as a function of a transactive signal (e.g., price). Empirical gray- and black-box models have been widely used to express flexibility, and although these approaches are generally easy to construct and simple to use, they do not capture the non-linear behavior that some end-use loads represent . Machine learning approaches have been proposed to address this limitation. Although deep learning approaches for forecasting end-use loads have been explored, certain aspects of the application of deep models to load forecasting are not well understood. These aspects include how much training data is required, and how models should be structured and trained. To that end, this work explores how to approach applying deep recurrent neural networks to short-term electrical load forecasting with a case study of four commercial office buildings. We identify data requirements for training accurate models of whole building electricity use conditioned on outdoor temperature, provide insight into model hyperparameter sensitivity, and demonstrate how readily models can be generalized to unseen buildings.

Skomski, Elliott↗