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At least 217 records · Page 12

A new approach to importance sampling for the simulation of false alarms

In this paper a modified importance sampling technique for improving the convergence of Importance Sampling is given. By using this approach to estimate low false alarm rates in radar simulations, the number of Monte Carlo runs can be reduced significantly. For one-dimensional exponential, Weibull, and Rayleigh distributions, a uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator is obtained. For Gaussian distribution the estimator in this approach is uniformly better than that of previously known Importance Sampling approach. For a cell averaging system, by combining this technique and group sampling, the reduction of Monte Carlo runs for a reference cell of 20 and false alarm rate of lE-6 is on the order of 170 as compared to the previously known Importance Sampling approach.

Lu, D.↗

Formation of the giant planets

The observed properties of giant planets, models of their evolution and observations of protoplanetary disks provide constraints on the formation of gas giant planets. The four largest planets in our Solar System contain considerable quantities of hydrogen and helium, which could not have condensed into solid planetesimals within the protoplanetary disk. All three (transiting) extrasolar giant planets with well determined masses and radii also must contain substantial amounts of these light gases. Jupiter and Saturn are mostly hydrogen and helium, but have larger abundances of heavier elements than does the Sun. Neptune and Uranus are primarily composed of heavier elements. HD 149026 b, which is slightly more massive than is Saturn, appears to have comparable quantities of light gases and heavy elements. HD 209458 b and TrES-1 are primarily hydrogen and helium, but may contain supersolar abundances of heavy elements. Spacecraft flybys and observations of satellite orbits provide estimates of the gravitational moments of the giant planets in our Solar System, which in turn provide information on the internal distribution of matter within Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune. Atmospheric thermal structure and heat flow measurements constrain the interior temperatures of planets. Internal processes may cause giant planets to become more compositionally differentiated or alternatively more homogeneous; high-pressure laboratory .experiments provide data useful for modeling these processes. The preponderance of evidence supports the core nucleated gas accretion model. According to this model, giant planets begin their growth by the accumulation of small solid bodies, as do terrestrial planets. However, unlike terrestrial planets, the growing giant planet cores become massive enough that they are able to accumulate substantial amounts of gas before the protoplanetary disk dissipates. The primary questions regarding the core nucleated growth model is under what conditions planets with small cores/total heavy element abundances can accrete gaseous envelopes within the lifetimes of gaseous protoplanetary disks.

Lissauer, Jack J.↗

Passive imaging based multi-cue hazard detection spacecraft safe landing

Accurate assessment of potentially damaging ground hazards during the spacecraft EDL (Entry, Descent and Landing) phase is crucial to insure a high probability of safe landing. A lander that encounters a large rock, falls off a cliff, or tips over on a steep slope can sustain mission ending damage. Guided entry is expected to shrink landing ellipses from 100-300 km to -10 km radius for the second generation landers as early as 2009. Regardless of size and location, however, landing ellipses will almost always contain hazards such as craters, discontinuities, steep slopes, and large rocks. It is estimated that an MSL (Mars Science Laboratory)-sized lander should detect and avoid 16- 150m diameter craters, vertical drops similar to the edges of 16m or 3.75m diameter crater, for high and low altitude HAD (Hazard Detection and Avoidance) respectively. It should also be able to detect slopes 20' or steeper, and rocks 0.75m or taller. In this paper we will present a passive imaging based, multi-cue hazard detection and avoidance (HDA) system suitable for Martian and other lander missions. This is the first passively imaged HDA system that seamlessly integrates multiple algorithm-crater detection, slope estimation, rock detection and texture analysis, and multicues- crater morphology, rock distribution, to detect these hazards in real time.

hazard detection↗

The Real-Time Wall Interference Correction System of the NASA Ames 12-Foot Pressure Wind Tunnel

An improved version of the Wall Signature Method was developed to compute wall interference effects in three-dimensional subsonic wind tunnel testing of aircraft models in real-time. The method may be applied to a full-span or a semispan model. A simplified singularity representation of the aircraft model is used. Fuselage, support system, propulsion simulator, and separation wake volume blockage effects are represented by point sources and sinks. Lifting effects are represented by semi-infinite line doublets. The singularity representation of the test article is combined with the measurement of wind tunnel test reference conditions, wall pressure, lift force, thrust force, pitching moment, rolling moment, and pre-computed solutions of the subsonic potential equation to determine first order wall interference corrections. Second order wall interference corrections for pitching and rolling moment coefficient are also determined. A new procedure is presented that estimates a rolling moment coefficient correction for wings with non-symmetric lift distribution. Experimental data obtained during the calibration of the Ames Bipod model support system and during tests of two semispan models mounted on an image plane in the NASA Ames 12 ft. Pressure Wind Tunnel are used to demonstrate the application of the wall interference correction method.

Ulbrich, Norbert↗

The impactor flux in the Pluto-Charon system

Current impact rates of comets on Pluto and Charon are estimated. It is shown that the dominant sources of impactors are comets from the Kuiper belt and the inner Oort cloud, each of whose perihelion distribution extends across Pluto's orbit. In contrast, long-period comets from the outer Oort cloud are a negligible source of impactors. The total predicted number of craters is not sufficient to saturate the surface areas of either Pluto of Charon over the age of the Solar System. However, heavy cratering may have occurred early in the Solar System's history during clearing of planetesimals from the outer planets' zone.

Weissman, Paul R.↗

Data Applicability of Heritage and New Hardware For Launch Vehicle Reliability Models

Bayesian reliability requires the development of a prior distribution to represent degree of belief about the value of a parameter (such as a component's failure rate) before system specific data become available from testing or operations. Generic failure data are often provided in reliability databases as point estimates (mean or median). A component's failure rate is considered a random variable where all possible values are represented by a probability distribution. The applicability of the generic data source is a significant source of uncertainty that affects the spread of the distribution. This presentation discusses heuristic guidelines for quantifying uncertainty due to generic data applicability when developing prior distributions mainly from reliability predictions.

Al Hassan, Mohammad↗

Demonstrations of System-Level Autonomy for Spacecraft

System-level autonomy refers to autonomously meeting the crosscutting needs of a system through awareness and coordinated control spanning the system's breadth of capabilities. In contrast to function-level autonomy, which focuses on capabilities required to achieve a specific function such as surface navigation or image recognition, system-level autonomy addresses the needs to coordinate and manage activities and resources, and estimate the state, across subsystems. This paper describes demonstrations that were conducted on a spacecraft workstation testbed. The autonomy was provided by system-level planning and execution integrated with system-level estimators of orbit knowledge and spacecraft hardware health. These components are embedded in a system-level framework defining how goals are formed and executed, which elements exist, and how control authority is distributed among components. The planning and execution system at the heart of the framework has the capability to schedule, execute and monitor completion of tasks, as well as plan around unexpected events including new science opportunities and anomalies. The planning and scheduling system is the Multi-mission EXECutive (MEXEC), supported by the system-level health state estimator Model-Based Off-Nominal State Identification and Detection (MONSID), and Autonomous Navigation (AutoNav) algorithms, which determine the orbital system state based on optical observation of other targets. These components are applicable to many kinds of missions on different platforms. These demonstrations were elaborations of earlier experiments conducted on the ASTERIA (Arcsecond Space Telescope Enabling Research In Astrophysics) CubeSat, described in a companion submission [1]. The spacecraft’s extended mission served as an in-flight test platform, during which some individual autonomous capabilities were flown successfully. The autonomy experiments described here were performed on the ASTERIA workstation testbed.

Prather, Maurice↗

The response of the near earth magnetotail to substorm activity

The large scale structure of the current sheet in the terrestrial magnetotail is often represented as the superposition of a constant northward-oriented magnetic field component (B(sub z)) and a component along the Earth-Sun direction (B(sub x)) that varies with distance from the center of the sheet (z(sub o) in GSM) as in a Hams neutral sheet. The latter implies that B(sub x) = B(sub Lx) tanh((z - z(sub o))/h) where B(sub Lx) is the magnitude of the B(sub x) component in the northern lobe. Correspondingly, the cross-tail current should be approximated by J(sub y) = (B(sub Lx)/h) sech(sup 2)((z - z(sub o))/h). Using data from the fluxgate magnetometer (FGM) on the Cluster I1 spacecraft tetrad, we have used measured fields and currents to ask if this model represents the large-scale properties of the system. During very quiet crossings of the plasmasheet, we find that the model gives a reasonable estimate of the trend of the average current and field distributions, but during disturbed intervals, the best fit fails to represent the data. If, however, the parameters z(sub o) and h of the model are taken as variable functions of time, the fits can be reasonably good. The temporal variation of the fit parameter h that characterizes the thickness of the current sheet can be interpreted in terms of thinning during the growth phase of a substorm and thickening following the expansion phase. Ground signatures that give insight into the local time of substorm onset can be used to interpret the response of the plasmasheet to substorm related changes of the global system. During a substorm, the field magnitude in the central plasmasheet fluctuates at the period of Pi2 pulsations.

Kivelson, M. G.↗

The application of connectionism to query planning/scheduling in intelligent user interfaces

In the mid nineties, the Earth Observing System (EOS) will generate an estimated 10 terabytes of data per day. This enormous amount of data will require the use of sophisticated technologies from real time distributed Artificial Intelligence (AI) and data management. Without regard to the overall problems in distributed AI, efficient models were developed for doing query planning and/or scheduling in intelligent user interfaces that reside in a network environment. Before intelligent query/planning can be done, a model for real time AI planning and/or scheduling must be developed. As Connectionist Models (CM) have shown promise in increasing run times, a connectionist approach to AI planning and/or scheduling is proposed. The solution involves merging a CM rule based system to a general spreading activation model for the generation and selection of plans. The system was implemented in the Rochester Connectionist Simulator and runs on a Sun 3/260.

Short, Nicholas, Jr.↗

Approximation techniques for parameter estimation and feedback control for distributed models of large flexible structures

Approximation ideas are discussed that can be used in parameter estimation and feedback control for Euler-Bernoulli models of elastic systems. Focusing on parameter estimation problems, ways by which one can obtain convergence results for cubic spline based schemes for hybrid models involving an elastic cantilevered beam with tip mass and base acceleration are outlined. Sample numerical findings are also presented.

Banks, H. T.↗

Optimal Communication Topology Determination and Sensor Selection for Independent Airspace Surveillance

The paper presents an approach to sensors selection and network topology determination for independent airspace surveillance with maximum outcome and minimum cost using ground based distributed sensing, computing and communication network infrastructure. The selection criteria includes minimum estimation error, maximum airspace coverage, minimum communication time and power consumption while guaranteeing the system observability and providing in-time quality information to a monitoring observer. The developed algorithm uses multi-objective optimization strategy taking into account trade-offs between conflicting objectives and relaxations for in time implementation. It is implemented utilizing graph theoretic tools. The approach is validated in a desktop simulation environment using synthetic sensors data generated for a simulated multi-vehicle flight scenario in the selected regional airspace.

Distributed sensing↗

Economic Benefits of Improved Information on Worldwide Crop Production: An Optimal Decision Model of Production and Distribution with Application to Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans

An optimal decision model of crop production, trade, and storage was developed for use in estimating the economic consequences of improved forecasts and estimates of worldwide crop production. The model extends earlier distribution benefits models to include production effects as well. Application to improved information systems meeting the goals set in the large area crop inventory experiment (LACIE) indicates annual benefits to the United States of $200 to $250 million for wheat, $50 to $100 million for corn, and $6 to $11 million for soybeans, using conservative assumptions on expected LANDSAT system performance.

Andrews, J.↗

Fiber-Optic Strain-Based Deflection and Twist Sensing for a High-Aspect-Ratio Swept Wing

Designs of aircraft structures have been moving toward leaner, lightweight designs for increased fuel efficiency. The Passive Aeroelastic Tailored (PAT) wing developed under the NASA Advanced Air Transport Technology (AATT) project is an example of a swept-wing design with high aspect ratio that incorporates lightweight highly-flexible tailored composite construction. The passive aeroelastic tailored structural design has explored the design space to enable aeroelastically tailored wing structures to increase aspect ratios (from 9 to 14) and ultimately reduce weight by 20 percent to 25 percent without impacting aeroelastic performance. To further study the aeroelastic performance of such a wing, the NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center (AFRC) (Edwards, California) has developed efficient real-time structural algorithms that are used in conjunction with a fiber-optic measurement system for lightweight vehicle applications. The AFRC Fiber Optic Sensing System (FOSS) provides up to 8,000 distributed surface strain measurements at one-half-inch increments and can be used to estimate a variety of structural parameters such as shape and load. This report discusses the implementation of strain-based displacement and twist-sensing techniques applied to the PAT wing test article tested at the NASA AFRC Flight Loads Laboratory. Empirical FOSS strain data are collected under varying loading conditions. Strain data are processed with the displacement and twist-sensing algorithms and independently verified by comparison to conventional ground-based instrumentation.

Pena, Francisco↗

Proceedings of the 2004 High Spatial Resolution Commercial Imagery Workshop

Topics covered include: NASA Applied Sciences Program; USGS Land Remote Sensing: Overview; QuickBird System Status and Product Overview; ORBIMAGE Overview; IKONOS 2004 Calibration and Validation Status; OrbView-3 Spatial Characterization; On-Orbit Modulation Transfer Function (MTF) Measurement of QuickBird; Spatial Resolution Characterization for QuickBird Image Products 2003-2004 Season; Image Quality Evaluation of QuickBird Super Resolution and Revisit of IKONOS: Civil and Commercial Application Project (CCAP); On-Orbit System MTF Measurement; QuickBird Post Launch Geopositional Characterization Update; OrbView-3 Geometric Calibration and Geopositional Accuracy; Geopositional Statistical Methods; QuickBird and OrbView-3 Geopositional Accuracy Assessment; Initial On-Orbit Spatial Resolution Characterization of OrbView-3 Panchromatic Images; Laboratory Measurement of Bidirectional Reflectance of Radiometric Tarps; Stennis Space Center Verification and Validation Capabilities; Joint Agency Commercial Imagery Evaluation (JACIE) Team; Adjacency Effects in High Resolution Imagery; Effect of Pulse Width vs. GSD on MTF Estimation; Camera and Sensor Calibration at the USGS; QuickBird Geometric Verification; Comparison of MODTRAN to Heritage-based Results in Vicarious Calibration at University of Arizona; Using Remotely Sensed Imagery to Determine Impervious Surface in Sioux Falls, South Dakota; Estimating Sub-Pixel Proportions of Sagebrush with a Regression Tree; How Do YOU Use the National Land Cover Dataset?; The National Map Hazards Data Distribution System; Recording a Troubled World; What Does This-Have to Do with This?; When Can a Picture Save a Thousand Homes?; InSAR Studies of Alaska Volcanoes; Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) Data Products; Improving Access to the USGS Aerial Film Collections: High Resolution Scanners; Improving Access to the USGS Aerial Film Collections: Phoenix Digitizing System Product Distribution; System and Product Characterization: Issues Approach; Innovative Approaches to Analysis of Lidar Data for the National Map; Changes in Imperviousness near Military Installations; Geopositional Accuracy Evaluations of QuickBird and OrbView-3: Civil and Commercial Applications Project (CCAP); Geometric Accuracy Assessment: OrbView ORTHO Products; QuickBird Radiometric Calibration Update; OrbView-3 Radiometric Calibration; QuickBird Radiometric Characterization; NASA Radiometric Characterization; Establishing and Verifying the Traceability of Remote-Sensing Measurements to International Standards; QuickBird Applications; Airport Mapping and Perpetual Monitoring Using IKONOS; OrbView-3 Relative Accuracy Results and Impacts on Exploitation and Accuracy Improvement; Using Remotely Sensed Imagery to Determine Impervious Surface in Sioux Falls, South Dakota; Applying High-Resolution Satellite Imagery and Remotely Sensed Data to Local Government Applications: Sioux Falls, South Dakota; Automatic Co-Registration of QuickBird Data for Change Detection Applications; Developing Coastal Surface Roughness Maps Using ASTER and QuickBird Data Sources; Automated, Near-Real Time Cloud and Cloud Shadow Detection in High Resolution VNIR Imagery; Science Applications of High Resolution Imagery at the USGS EROS Data Center; Draft Plan for Characterizing Commercial Data Products in Support of Earth Science Research; Atmospheric Correction Prototype Algorithm for High Spatial Resolution Multispectral Earth Observing Imaging Systems; Determining Regional Arctic Tundra Carbon Exchange: A Bottom-Up Approach; Using IKONOS Imagery to Assess Impervious Surface Area, Riparian Buffers and Stream Health in the Mid-Atlantic Region; Commercial Remote Sensing Space Policy Civil Implementation Update; USGS Commercial Remote Sensing Data Contracts (CRSDC); and Commercial Remote Sensing Space Policy (CRSSP): Civil Near-Term Requirements Collection Update.

Source record↗

Error Analyses of the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA)

Two approaches are used to characterize how accurately the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) is able to locate lightning VHF sources in space and in time. The first method uses a Monte Carlo computer simulation to estimate source retrieval errors. The simulation applies a VHF source retrieval algorithm that was recently developed at the NASA-MSFC and that is similar, but not identical to, the standard New Mexico Tech retrieval algorithm. The second method uses a purely theoretical technique (i.e., chi-squared Curvature Matrix theory) to estimate retrieval errors. Both methods assume that the LMA system has an overall rms timing error of 50ns, but all other possible errors (e.g., multiple sources per retrieval attempt) are neglected. The detailed spatial distributions of retrieval errors are provided. Given that the two methods are completely independent of one another, it is shown that they provide remarkably similar results, except that the chi-squared theory produces larger altitude error estimates than the (more realistic) Monte Carlo simulation.

Koshak, W. J.↗

Error Analyses of the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA)

Two approaches are used to characterize how accurately the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) is able to locate lightning VHF sources in space and in time. The first method uses a Monte Carlo computer simulation to estimate source retrieval errors. The simulation applies a VHF source retrieval algorithm that was recently developed at the NASA-MSFC and that is similar, but not identical to, the standard New Mexico Tech retrieval algorithm. The second method uses a purely theoretical technique (i.e., chi-squared Curvature Matrix theory) to estimate retrieval errors. Both methods assume that the LMA system has an overall rms timing error of 50ns, but all other possible errors (e.g., multiple sources per retrieval attempt) are neglected. The detailed spatial distributions of retrieval errors are provided. Given that the two methods are completely independent of one another, it is shown that they provide remarkably similar results, except that the chi-squared theory produces larger altitude error estimates than the (more realistic) Monte Carlo simulation.

Koshak, W. J.↗

Mars Entry Atmospheric Data System Modeling, Calibration, and Error Analysis

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI)/Mars Entry Atmospheric Data System (MEADS) project installed seven pressure ports through the MSL Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) heatshield to measure heatshield surface pressures during entry. These measured surface pressures are used to generate estimates of atmospheric quantities based on modeled surface pressure distributions. In particular, the quantities to be estimated from the MEADS pressure measurements include the dynamic pressure, angle of attack, and angle of sideslip. This report describes the calibration of the pressure transducers utilized to reconstruct the atmospheric data and associated uncertainty models, pressure modeling and uncertainty analysis, and system performance results. The results indicate that the MEADS pressure measurement system hardware meets the project requirements.

Karlgaard, Christopher D.↗

A Fast Monte Carlo Method for Model-Based Prognostics Based on Stochastic Calculus

This work proposes a fast Monte Carlo method to solve differential equations utilized in model-based prognostics. The methodology is derived from the theory of stochastic calculus, and the goal of such a method is to speed up the estimation of the probability density functions describing the independent variable evolution over time. In the prognostic scenarios presented in this paper, the stochastic differential equations describe variables directly or indirectly related to the degradation of a monitored system. The method allows the estimation of the probability density functions by solving the deterministic equation and approximating the stochastic integrals using samples of the model noise. By so doing, the prognostic problem is solved without the Monte Carlo simulation based on Euler's forward method, which is typically the most time consuming task of the prediction stage. Three different prognostic scenarios are presented as proof of concept: (i) life prediction of electrolytic capacitors, (ii) remaining time to discharge of Lithium-ion batteries, and (iii) prognostic of cracked structures under fatigue loading. The paper shows how the method produces probability density functions that are statistically indistinguishable from the distributions estimated with Euler's forward Monte Carlo simulation. However, the proposed solution is orders of magnitude faster when computing the time-to-failure distribution of the monitored system. The approach may enable complex real-time prognostics and health management solutions with limited computing power.

Corbetta, M.↗