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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation in Texas

Wind and solar energy sources are climate and weather dependent, therefore susceptible to a changing climate. in this paper, we quantify the impacts of climate change on wind and solar electricity generation under high concentrations of greenhouse gases in Texas. We employ mid-twenty-first century climate projections and a high-resolution numerical weather prediction model to generate weather variables in the future and produce wind and solar generation time series. We find that mid-twenty-first century projections based on five global climate models agree on the multiyear average increases across Texas in direct normal irradiance, global horizontal irradiance, surface air temperature, and 100-m wind speed of up to 5%, 4%, 10%, and 1%, respectively. These changes lead to multiyear average relative changes across Texas of -0.6 to + 2.5% and of + 1.3 to + 3.5% in solar and wind capacity factors, respectively, with significant regional, seasonal, and diurnal differences. Areas with low solar resource show an increase in solar capacity factors but reductions in wind capacity factors. Areas with high solar resource show reductions in solar capacity factors. The spatial and temporal differences in our results highlight the importance of using high-resolution data sets to study the potential impacts of climate change on wind and solar power.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating building occupancy: a machine learning system for day, night, and episodic events

Building occupancy research increasingly emphasizes understanding the social and physical dynamics of how people occupy space. Opportunities in the open source domain including social media, Volunteered Geographic Information, crowdsourcing, and sensor data have proliferated, resulting in the exploration of building occupancy dynamics at varying spatiotemporal scales. At Oak Ridge National Laboratory, research into building occupancies through the development of a global learning framework that accommodates exploitation of open source authoritative sources, including governmental census and surveys, journal articles, real estate databases, and more, to report national and subnational building occupancies across the world continues through the Population Density Tables (PDT) project. This probabilistic learning system accommodates expert knowledge, experience, and open-source data to capture local, socioeconomic, and cultural information about human activity. It does so through a systematic process of data harmonization techniques in the development of observation models for over 50 building types to dynamically update baseline estimates and report probabilistic diurnal and episodic building occupancy estimates. This discussion will explore how PDT is implemented at scale and expanded based on the development of observation model classes and will explain how to interpret and spatially apply the reported probability occupancy estimates and uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Timed to save: the added value of accounting for hourly incidence of electricity savings from residential space-conditioning measures

Abstract Previous research has recognized that the value of measures that reduce electricity usage depends upon the timing of the savings generated, but the lack of hourly savings shapes has limited the demonstration of this concept. We develop empirical hourly savings shapes for residential space-conditioning measures from nearly 18,000 efficiency projects in California and show how they combine with the diurnal and seasonal variation in electricity system costs. We find that these measures (cooling replacements; windows, doors, and skylights; and other envelope measures) tend to save electricity when system costs are highest and that the hourly savings account for 1.4–1.5 times as much value as non-time-sensitive estimates of efficiency would predict. We present these impact multipliers for each measure to quantify the additional value revealed by the time-sensitive approach. We show that this additional value is similar in an evolving electricity grid with storage, rather than natural gas generation, as the marginal resource.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Conterminous USA-Scale Map of Relative Tidal Marsh Elevation

Abstract Tidal wetlands provide myriad ecosystem services across local to global scales. With their uncertain vulnerability or resilience to rising sea levels, there is a need for mapping flooding drivers and vulnerability proxies for these ecosystems at a national scale. However, tidal wetlands in the conterminous USA are diverse with differing elevation gradients, and tidal amplitudes, making broad geographic comparisons difficult. To address this, a national-scale map of relative tidal elevation ( Z * MHW ), a physical metric that normalizes elevation to tidal amplitude at mean high water (MHW), was constructed for the first time at 30 × 30-m resolution spanning the conterminous USA. Contrary to two study hypotheses, watershed-level median Z * MHW and its variability generally increased from north to south as a function of tidal amplitude and relative sea-level rise. These trends were also observed in a reanalysis of ground elevation data from the Pacific Coast by Janousek et al. (Estuaries and Coasts 42 (1): 85–98, 2019). Supporting a third hypothesis, propagated uncertainty in Z * MHW increased from north to south as light detection and ranging (LiDAR) errors had an outsized effect under narrowing tidal amplitudes. The drivers of Z * MHW and its variability are difficult to determine because several potential causal variables are correlated with latitude, but future studies could investigate highest astronomical tide and diurnal high tide inequality as drivers of median Z * MHW and Z * MHW variability, respectively. Watersheds of the Gulf Coast often had propagated Z * MHW uncertainty greater than the tidal amplitude itself emphasizing the diminished practicality of applying Z * MHW as a flooding proxy to microtidal wetlands. Future studies could focus on validating and improving these physical map products and using them for synoptic modeling of tidal wetland carbon dynamics and sea-level rise vulnerability analyses.

Holmquist, James R. (ORCID:0000000325466766)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Insights of Boundary Layer Turbulence Over the Complex Terrain of Central Himalaya from GVAX Field Campaign

Limited observations hinder understanding of turbulent characteristics in mountainous terrain resulting from heating or cooling of slopes, wind, vertical motions, and heat or moisture advection, which disperse aerosols and other pollutants over the region. In this study, the 1290 MHz radar wind profiler data are utilized to compute the boundary layer height (BLH), the refractive index structure constant (C n 2 ), and the energy dissipation rate (ε) over the central Himalayan site for the period of November 2011 to March 2012, from the intense Ganges Valley Aerosol Experiment (GVAX) field measurements. The radar wind profiler (RWP) based estimation of BLH and ε is validated against the radiosonde, representing the effectiveness of the datasets for further investigation. The strong seasonal variation of log C n 2 and log ε, with average values of ≈ -12 m -2/3 and -2 m 2 s -3 , respectively, is associated with the mountain-induced local circulations and stability in the atmospheric boundary layer. The weak stratification during weak flow is found to be responsible for deep mixing, particularly in the nocturnal boundary layer in spring. Furthermore, the level of cloud cover significantly impacts the strength of turbulence, with the highest cloud cover resulting in a substantial increase in log C n 2 (approximately -11 m -2/3 ) due to intense updraft and downdraft motions compared to clear skies. Additionally, the distribution of aerosol loading across the site, coupled with the behavior of BLH, atmospheric stability, and orographic-induced circulations, implies distinctive seasonal mechanisms for transporting aerosols toward the mountains. This study offers valuable insights into the diurnal and seasonal patterns of turbulent mixing and the mechanisms behind the transport of pollutants through boundary layer processes over the region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Divergent responses of spring phenology to daytime and nighttime warming

Spring phenology (i.e., start of season, SOS) has shifted earlier in response to warmer temperatures. However, the respective influences of daytime and nighttime temperatures on SOS changes remain poorly understood. Here we characterized the responses of satellite-derived SOS to minimum temperature (Tmin) and maximum temperature (Tmax) across Appalachian Trail regions in the Eastern United States during 2000-2013. We found SOS responded differently to Tmin and Tmax at 81.5% of the study area. Furthermore, the SOS responses to Tmin and Tmax both changed across space, and specifically, these two responses showed significant divergent trends from cold to warm regions (P<0.001). We propose a new framework utilizing both Tmin and Tmax, instead of daily average temperature, in modeling phenology. This study, for the first time, disentangled phenological responses to daytime temperature from nighttime temperature across a wide range of temperatures. The findings suggest that model projections of future phenological changes should incorporate the divergent phenology responses to daytime and nighttime temperatures, in order to improve the representation of land-atmosphere interactions in Earth system models in light of asymmetric diurnal warming.

asymmetric warming, temperature sensitivity, Appal↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multiscale Effects Masked the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Electricity Demand in the United States

Shelter-in-place orders and business closures related to COVID-19 changed the hourly profile of electricity demand and created an unprecedented source of uncertainty for the grid. The potential for continued shifts in electricity profiles has implications for electricity sector investment and operating decisions that maintain reserve margins and provide grid reliability. This study reveals that understanding this uncertainty requires an understanding of the underlying drivers at the customer-class scale. This paper utilizes three datasets to compare the impacts of COVID-19 on electricity consumption across a range of spatiotemporal and customer scales. At the utility/customer-class scale, COVID-19-induced shutdowns in the spring of 2020 shifted weekday residential load profiles to resemble weekend profiles from previous years. Total commercial loads declined, but the commercial diurnal load profile was unchanged. With only total loads available at the balancing authority scale, the apparent impact of COVID-19 was smaller during the summer due in part to phased re-opening and spatial variability in re-opening, but there were still clear variations once total loads were broken down zonally. Monthly data at the state scale showed an increase in state-level residential electricity sales, a decrease in commercial sales, and a small net decrease in total sales in most states from April-August 2020. Analyses that focus on total load or a single scale may miss important changes that become apparent when the load is broken down regionally or by customer class.

COVID-19, electricity demand, multiscale, Commonwe↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigation of Stochastic Unit Commitment to Enable Advanced Flexibility Measures for High Shares of Solar PV

As the share of solar photovoltaics (PV) in the power system increases, there is a growing need for flexibility from multiple, possibly interdependent sources to adjust to PV's variability, uncertainty, and diurnal dependence. This paper investigates how stochastic unit commitment leveraging probabilistic solar forecasts can support other flexibility measures under high solar shares. We consider two flexibility measures relevant to day-ahead scheduling: battery energy time-shifting and solar ancillary service provision. Unit commitment and economic dispatch simulations are conducted on a realistic test system based on Texas using day-ahead solar trajectories. The benefits of the two flexibility measures are pronounced when the instantaneous solar share is high, offering cost savings of 10%-20% in the spring. For a Texas-sized system, this translates to hundreds of millions of dollars in cost savings once the installed PV capacity enables instantaneous solar shares regularly exceeding 40%. Using probabilistic forecasts also greatly increases the reliability of upward reserve provision from solar PV, reducing unserved reserves by 50%-100%. Both day-ahead forecast resolution and errors can impact system reliability at high solar shares, but the stochastic formulation has significant value, mitigating reliability impacts on over-forecast days.

ancillary services↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigating the effects of cooperative transmission expansion planning on grid performance during heat waves with varying spatial scales

There is growing recognition of the advantages of interregional transmission capacity to decarbonize electricity grids. A less explored benefit is potential performance improvements during extreme weather events. This study examines the impacts of cooperative transmission expansion planning using an advanced modeling chain to simulate power grid operations of the United States Western Interconnection in 2019 and 2059 under different levels of collaboration between transmission planning regions. Two historical heat waves in 2019 with varying geographical coverage are replayed under future climate change in 2059 to assess the transmission cooperation benefits during grid stress. The results show that cooperative transmission planning yields the best outcomes in terms of reducing wholesale electricity prices and minimizing energy outages both for the whole interconnection and individual transmission planning regions. Compared to individual planning, cooperative planning reduces wholesale electricity prices by 64.3 % and interconnection-wide total costs (transmission investments + grid operations) by 34.6 % in 2059. It also helps decrease greenhouse gas emissions by increasing renewable energy utilization. However, the benefits of cooperation diminish during the widespread heat wave when all regions face extreme electricity demand due to higher space cooling needs. Despite this, cooperative transmission planning remains advantageous, particularly for California Independent System Operator with significant diurnal solar generation capacity. This study suggests that cooperation in transmission planning is crucial for reducing costs and increasing reliability both during normal periods and extreme weather events. It highlights the importance of optimizing the strategic investments to mitigate challenges posed by wider-scale extreme weather events of the future.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Strong temporal variability in methane fluxes from natural gas well pad soils

We measured methane and carbon dioxide fluxes at natural gas well pad soils and undisturbed soils in the Rocky Mountain and Gulf Coast regions of the United States, including producing and gas storage wells. We collected both short-term (15 min) and multi-day (between 3 and 8), continuous measurements at 47 well pads and two undisturbed locations. Methane fluxes varied by more than an order of magnitude over periods as short as 30 min (e.g., 19–593 mg m -2 h -1 in one instance), and diurnal and seasonal variability was also significant (e.g., spring-to-fall change from 509 to 14174 mg m -2 h -1 ). We hypothesize that short-term flux variability was caused by pulsed flow of methane during its migration through the subsurface. Barometric pressure and well conditions likely impacted fluxes, but we found only weak evidence for this. Bacterial methanotrophy appeared to impact methane flux magnitude and variability. We injected methane into the subsurface at one well, and we found that, while fluxes of methane and carbon dioxide, and combustible soil gas concentrations, increased in response to the injection, the response was not uniform, and fluxes exhibited high hourly-scale variability, in spite of a constant injection rate. Methane fluxes tended to be higher at well pad soils compared to background soils (often much higher), and fluxes tended to be higher at well pad locations closer to the well head.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigation on cloud vertical structures based on Ka-band cloud radar observations at Wuhan in Central China

Based on vertically pointing observations of Ka-band frequency-modulated continuous millimeter wave cloud radar (MMCR) in 2020, we investigate cloud vertical structures at Wuhan in central China. Case comparison indicates that the cloud top locations in the MMCR observation are largely consistent with those in satellite data. The precipitation has the occurrence frequency of 9.5% over the year, with the maximum value of 16.3% in July and the submaximal value of 14.7% in January, showing the significant influences of monsoons on precipitation at Wuhan. As the humid, cloudy and rainy climate, the probability of precipitation and non-precipitation clouds increases gradually from 53.9% in January to a large value of 71.5% in July. The non-precipitation clouds have the probability of 44.5% in the year, with two prominent peaks at the reflectivities of -35 to -30 dBZ around 12 km in summer and - 37– -32 dBZ around 10 km in spring. The cloud top can reach the heights of 14.49, 16.62, 13.38 and 11.73 km from spring to winter, respectively. The monthly mean cloud layer thickness is the largest (2.18 km) in May and September, and the smallest (1.36 km) in November. The seasonally averaged base and top heights and thickness of clouds have small diurnal variations. The high cloud is predominant in the warm months from May to September, and in the other cool months, the middle cloud has the most fraction. The quantitative investigation of clouds is helpful in improving the cloud parameterization in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A real-time multiphysics model of a pressurized solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) for cyber-physical simulation

Solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOEC) can play important roles in integrated energy systems (IES) as the hydrogen production hub and the resilience energy hub. When tied to a microgrid with high renewable penetration, the SOEC is subjected to rapid load transitions in response to the intermittent renewable generations that occur not only in diurnal cycles but also in short timeframes (e.g., sub-minute). The cyber-physical simulation approach can derisk operability research but requires a real-time dynamic SOEC model. In the present work, a real-time multiphysics model for pressurized SOEC is developed and validated in the pressure range from 1.4 to 8bar. Further, the accuracy of the single repeating unit (SRU) assumption in SOEC stack simulation is quantified. A guidance of more than 45 cells in one SOEC stack is recommended to safely apply the SRU assumption. Modeling results suggest that at a given current density, more power is consumed by SOEC at elevated operating pressures. The anode air and cathode stream have major impacts on thermal management, highlighting the potential benefit of integrating SOEC with other thermal processes in IES. To achieve high hydrogen production efficiency, the SOEC could operate at the maximum endothermic point to maximize the use of thermal energy. The real-time execution of the developed SOEC model is also demonstrated, which only takes 0.1% of the fixed time step of 5ms. The developed model establishes the basis for cyber-physical simulation of SOEC hybrid systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Comprehensive Chemistry Evaluation and Diagnostics Package for E3SM – ChemDyg Version 1.1.0

The Chemistry Evaluation and Diagnostics Package (ChemDyg) is an open-source tool designed for the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) developed by the U.S. Department of Energy. ChemDyg facilitates routine evaluation, tailored development, and in-depth analysis of atmospheric chemistry through its modular architecture, allowing users to compare model outputs with observational data. Version 1.1.0 introduces a robust set of diagnostic capabilities, including climatology, time evolution of key tracers, diurnal and annual cycle analyses, and extensive budget diagnostics. These features help identify model discrepancies and enhance the representation of atmospheric chemistry in E3SM. Each self-contained diagnostic set includes dedicated scripts and documentation for ease of use. The interactive HTML output improves data accessibility, accelerating chemistry model development. Additionally, ChemDyg's flexible framework allows for customization, enabling users to create unique diagnostic sets for specific scientific contributions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurements of sound propagation in Mars' lower atmosphere

Acoustics has become extraterrestrial and Mars provides a new natural laboratory for testing sound propagation models compared to those ones on Earth. Owing to the unique combination of a microphone and two sound sources, the Ingenuity helicopter and the SuperCam laser-induced sparks, the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover payload enables the in situ characterization of unique sound propagation properties of the low-pressure CO 2 -dominated Mars atmosphere. In this study, we show that atmospheric turbulence is responsible for a large variability in the sound amplitudes from laser-induced sparks. This variability follows the diurnal pattern of turbulence. In addition, acoustic measurements acquired over one Martian year reveal a variation of the sound intensity by a factor of 1.8 from a constant source due to the seasonal cycle of pressure and temperature that significantly modifies the acoustic impedance and shock-wave formation. Finally, we show that the evolution of the Ingenuity tones and laser spark amplitudes with distance is consistent with one of the existing sound absorption models, which is a key parameter for numerical simulations applied to geophysical experiments on CO 2 -rich atmospheres. Overall, these results demonstrate the potential of sound propagation to interrogate the Mars environment and will therefore help in the design of future acoustic-based experiments for Mars or other planetary atmospheres such as Venus and Titan.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling the Potential Impact of Storage on the US Power Sector in a Multisector Dynamic Context

The electric power sector is expected to grow in size, importance, and complexity around the world as economies expand and electric supply technologies and demand patterns evolve in significant ways. At the same time the electric power sector may see substantial increases in VRE generating technologies which can add variability and uncertainty to the diurnal and seasonal profile of electric supply. With these forces in play, the emergence of modular, flexible electricity storage technologies may have profound impacts on the operation of electric power systems. Here we reduce a storage modeling gap in MSD models by incorporating grid-based electricity storage into the electric sector dynamics of the Global Change Analysis Model-USA (GCAM-USA) with improved power sector representation. We find a potentially significant role for storage technologies in the future of the U.S. power system, with storage capacity ranging from 7.7 to 14.7 GW in 2050 and 13.9 to 31.6 GW in 2100 across several techno-economic scenarios. We also find that storage can help to smooth variability in residual load arising from evolving electricity demands and the introduction of high shares of VRE to the electric grid. This reduces reliance on high-cost peaking generators, improves system-wide capacity factors, and limits curtailment of VRE.

Patel, Pralit L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Demand reduction and energy saving potential of thermal energy storage integrated heat pumps [Réduction de la demande et potentiel d'économie d'énergie des pompes à chaleur avec stockage d'énergie thermique intégré]

A heat pump (HP) moves heat from a low-temperature source to a high-temperature sink with an input of energy. Often, one temperature body fluctuates with time (e.g., diurnal ambient temperature), causing the HP efficiency to vary. Integrating thermal energy storage (TES) into a HP system adds a third temperature body, enabling the HP to be advantageously coupled to any two: the application, the ambient, or the TES at strategic times. Although TES integration with HPs is an important emerging technology to lower energy consumption and decrease energy demand during critical times, the favorable circumstances for TES integration are poorly understood. Here, this paper establishes the energy reduction and demand reduction potential of TES-integrated HPs with both analytical and numerical HP models. All possible temperature arrangements are considered for HP-TES systems with two fixed temperature bodies (application and TES) and one variable temperature (ambient). Results show that overall energy savings are most attainable when the TES temperature is near the application temperature, whereas a large temperature difference between the TES and the application leads to the most peak demand reduction. The potential for overall energy savings increases as the magnitude of ambient temperature fluctuations increases.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Monitoring leaf phenology in moist tropical forests by applying a superpixel-based deep learning method to time-series images of tree canopies

Tropical leaf phenology-particularly its variability at the tree-crown scale-dominates the seasonality of carbon and water fluxes. However, given enormous species diversity, accurate means of monitoring leaf phenology in tropical forests is still lacking. Time series of the Green Chromatic Coordinate (GCC) metric derived from tower-based red-green-blue (RGB) phenocams have been widely used to monitor leaf phenology in temperate forests, but its application in the tropics remains problematic. To improve monitoring of tropical phenology, we explored the use of a deep learning model (i.e. superpixel-based Residual Networks 50, SP-ResNet50) to automatically differentiate leaves from non-leaves in phenocam images and to derive leaf fraction at the tree-crown scale. To evaluate our model, we used a year of data from six phenocams in two contrasting forests in Panama. Here, we first built a comprehensive library of leaf and non-leaf pixels across various acquisition times, exposure conditions and specific phenocams. We then divided this library into training and testing components. We evaluated the model at three levels: 1) superpixel level with a testing set, 2) crown level by comparing the model-derived leaf fractions with those derived using image-specific supervised classification, and 3) temporally using all daily images to assess the diurnal stability of the model-derived leaf fraction. Finally, we compared the model-derived leaf fraction phenology with leaf phenology derived from GCC. Our results show that: 1) the SP-ResNet50 model accurately differentiates leaves from non-leaves (overall accuracy of 93%) and is robust across all three levels of evaluations; 2) the model accurately quantifies leaf fraction phenology across tree-crowns and forest ecosystems; and 3) the combined use of leaf fraction and GCC helps infer the timing of leaf emergence, maturation and senescence, critical information for modeling photosynthetic seasonality of tropical forests. Collectively, this study offers an improved means for automated tropical phenology monitoring using phenocams.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗