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DOE OSTI2024

Water use and radiation balance of miscanthus and corn on marginal land in the coastal plain region of North Carolina

Abstract Miscanthus is a perennial grass that can yield substantial amounts of biomass in land areas considered marginal. In the Coastal Plain region of North Carolina, marginal lands are typically located in coarse‐textured soils with low nutrient retention and water‐holding capacity, and high erosivity potential. Little is known about miscanthus water use under these conditions. We conducted a study to better understand the efficiency with which miscanthus uses natural resources such as water and radiant energy to produce harvestable dry biomass in comparison to corn, a typical commodity crop grown in the region. We hypothesized that under non‐limiting soil water conditions, miscanthus would have greater available energy and water use rates owing to its greater leaf area, thus leading to greater agronomic yields. Conversely, these effects would be negated under drought conditions. Our measurements showed that miscanthus intercepted more radiant energy than corn, which led to greater albedo (by 0.05), lower net radiation (by 4% or 0.4 MJ m −2 day −1 ), and lower soil heat flux (by 69% or 1.0 MJ m −2 day −1 ) than corn on average. Consequently, miscanthus had greater available energy (by 7% or 0.6 MJ m −2 day −1 ) and water use rates (by 14% or 0.5 mm day −1 ) than corn throughout the growing season on average, which partially confirmed our hypothesis. Greater water use rates and radiation interception by miscanthus did not translate to greater water‐use (1.5 g kg −1 vs. 1.6 g kg −1 ) and radiation‐use (0.9 g MJ −1 vs. 1.1 g MJ −1 ) efficiencies than corn. Compared to literature values, our data indicated that water and radiation availability were not limiting at our study site. Thus, it is likely that marginal land features present at the Coastal Plain region such as low soil fertility and high air temperatures throughout the growing season may constrain agronomic yields even if soil water and radiant energy are non‐limiting.

Carvalho, Henrique D. R.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Annual Herbaceous Plants Exhibit Altered Morphological Traits in Response to Altered Precipitation and Drought Patterns in Semiarid Sandy Grassland, Northern China

The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events and severe drought are predicted to increase in semiarid areas due to global climate change. Plant morphological traits can reflect plant responses to a changing environment, such as altered precipitation or drought patterns. In this study, we examined the response of morphological traits of root, stem, leaf and reproduction meristems of annual herbaceous species to altered precipitation and drought patterns in a semiarid sandy grassland. The study involved a control treatment (100% of background precipitation) and the following six altered precipitation treatments: (1) P(+): precipitation increased by 30%, (2) P(++): precipitation increased by 60%, (3) P(-): precipitation decreased by 30%, (4) P(--): precipitation decreased by 60%, (5) drought 1 (D1): 46-day drought from May 1st to June 15th, and (6) drought 2 (D2): 46-day drought from July 1st to August 15th. P(++) significantly increased root length, flower length-to-width ratio, both P(+) and P(++) significantly increased stem length and flower number in the plant growing seasons, while all of them decreased under P(-) and P(--). The annual herbaceous plants marginally increased the number of second-level stem branches and stem diameter in order to better resist the severe drought stress under P(--). P(+) and P(++) increased the root, stem, leaf, and flower dry weight, with the flower dry weight accounting for a larger proportion than the other aboveground parts. Under D2, the plants used the limited water resources more efficiently by increasing the root-to-shoot ratio compared with P(-), P(--) and D1, which reflects biomass allocation to belowground increased. The linear mixed-effects models and redundancy analysis showed that the root-to-shoot ratio and the dry weight of various plant components were significantly affected by morphological traits and altered precipitation magnitude. Our results showed that the herbaceous species have evolved morphological trait responses that allow them to adapt to climate change. Such differences in morphological traits may ultimately affect the growing patterns of annual herbaceous species, enhancing their drought-tolerant capacity in semiarid sandy grassland during the ongoing climate change.

Sun, Shan-Shan↗

DOE OSTI2020

Degradability of Biodegradable Soil Moisture Sensor Components and Their Effect on Maize (Zea mays L.) Growth

Inexpensive and no-maintenance biodegradable soil moisture sensors could improve existing knowledge on spatial and temporal variability of available soil water at field-scale. Such sensors can unlock the full potential of variable-rate irrigation (VRI) systems to optimize water applications in irrigated cropping systems. The objectives of this study were to assess (i) the degradation of soil moisture sensor component materials and (ii) the effects of material degradation on maize (Zea Mays L.) growth and development. This study was conducted in a greenhouse at Colorado State University, Colorado, USA, by planting maize seeds in pots filled with three growing media (field soil, silica sand, and Promix commercial potting media). The degradation rate of five candidate sensor materials (three blends of beeswax and soy wax, balsa wood, and PHBV (poly(3-hydroxybutyrate-co-3-hydroxyvalerate))) was assessed by harvesting sensor materials at four maize growth stages (30, 60, 90, and 120 days after transplanting). All materials under consideration showed stability in terms of mass and dimension except PHBV. PHBV was degraded entirely within 30 days in soil and Promix, and within 60 days in sand. Balsa wood did now show any significant reduction in mass and dimensions in all growth media. Similarly, there was no significant mass loss across wax blends (p = 0.05) at any growth stage, with a few exceptions. Among the wax blends, 3:1 (beeswax:soy wax) was the most stable blend in terms of mass and dimension with no surface cracks, making it a suitable encapsulant for soil sensor. All materials under consideration did not have any significant effect on maize growth (dry biomass, green biomass, and height) as compared to control plants. These results indicated that 3:1 beeswax:soy wax blend, PHBV, and balsa wood could be suitable candidates for various components of biodegradable soil moisture sensors.

Dahal, Subash (ORCID:0000000205489103)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Methane-cycling microbial communities from Amazon floodplains and upland forests respond differently to simulated climate change scenarios

Seasonal floodplains in the Amazon basin are important sources of methane (CH 4 ), while upland forests are known for their sink capacity. Climate change effects, including shifts in rainfall patterns and rising temperatures, may alter the functionality of soil microbial communities, leading to uncertain changes in CH 4 cycling dynamics. To investigate the microbial feedback under climate change scenarios, we performed a microcosm experiment using soils from two floodplains (i.e., Amazonas and Tapajós rivers) and one upland forest. We employed a two-factorial experimental design comprising flooding (with non-flooded control) and temperature (at 27 °C and 30 °C, representing a 3 °C increase) as variables. We assessed prokaryotic community dynamics over 30 days using 16S rRNA gene sequencing and qPCR. These data were integrated with chemical properties, CH 4 fluxes, and isotopic values and signatures. In the floodplains, temperature changes did not significantly affect the overall microbial composition and CH 4 fluxes. CH 4 emissions and uptake in response to flooding and non-flooding conditions, respectively, were observed in the floodplain soils. By contrast, in the upland forest, the higher temperature caused a sink-to-source shift under flooding conditions and reduced CH 4 sink capability under dry conditions. The upland soil microbial communities also changed in response to increased temperature, with a higher percentage of specialist microbes observed. Floodplains showed higher total and relative abundances of methanogenic and methanotrophic microbes compared to forest soils. Isotopic data from some flooded samples from the Amazonas river floodplain indicated CH 4 oxidation metabolism. This floodplain also showed a high relative abundance of aerobic and anaerobic CH 4 oxidizing Bacteria and Archaea. Taken together, our data indicate that CH 4 cycle dynamics and microbial communities in Amazonian floodplain and upland forest soils may respond differently to climate change effects. We also highlight the potential role of CH 4 oxidation pathways in mitigating CH 4 emissions in Amazonian floodplains.

16S rRNA sequencing↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sulfuric acid in the Amazon basin: measurements and evaluation of existing sulfuric acid proxies

Abstract. Sulfuric acid is a key contributor to new particle formation, though measurements of its gaseous concentrations are difficult to make. Several parameterizations to estimate sulfuric acid exist, all of which were constructed using measurements from the Northern Hemisphere. In this work, we report the first measurements of sulfuric acid from the Amazon basin. These measurements are consistent with concentrations measured in Hyytiälä, Finland, though, unlike Hyytiälä, there is no clear correlation of sulfuric acid with global radiation. There was a minimal difference in sulfuric acid observed between the wet and dry seasons in the Amazon basin. We also test the efficacy of existing proxies to estimate sulfuric acid in this region. Our results suggest that nighttime sulfuric acid production is due to both a stabilized Criegee intermediate pathway and oxidation of SO2 by OH, the latter of which is not currently accounted for in existing proxies. These results also illustrate the drawbacks of the common substitution of radiation for OH concentrations. None of the tested proxies effectively estimate sulfuric acid measurements at night. For estimates at all times of day, a recently published proxy based on data from the boreal forest should be used. If only daytime estimates are needed, several recent proxies that do not include the Criegee pathway are sufficient. More investigation of nighttime sulfuric acid production pathways is necessary to close the gap between measurements and estimates with existing proxies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Laboratory and field assessment of mid-infrared absorption (MIRA) instrument performance for methane and ethane dry mole fractions

Concurrent measurements of methane (CH 4 ) and ethane (C 2 H 6 ) can be used to identify and separate methane sources, as ethane is present in thermogenic sources (e.g., oil and natural gas) but not in biogenic sources (e.g., agriculture). In this study, we evaluated the performance of multiple Aeris MIRA Ultra instruments (Versions 1 and 2) through controlled laboratory tests and tower-based deployments under field conditions. The systems were modified with an external pump, flow control, a Nafion dryer, and a custom-built auxiliary box to automate the system and transmit near real-time data. We determined the best calibration approach for our application, given practical limitations, to be a full calibration cycle (with ambient and high calibration cylinders) about once per day and an ambient calibration cylinder sampled hourly. Measurement uncertainty was assessed, including the uncertainty due to instrument noise as a function of calibration frequency, uncertainty in the water vapor correction, and cylinder assignment uncertainty. Instrument noise was the dominant source of uncertainty for C 2 H 6 , while the water vapor correction dominated the CH 4 uncertainty. For Version 2 systems with hourly calibrations and a Nafion dryer with counterflow, the mean total uncertainty, including both systematic errors and noise, of hourly averages was 0.8–3.0 ppb CH 4 and 0.35–0.37 ppb C 2 H 6 . Laboratory intercomparisons showed network compatibility within 1.2 ppb CH 4 and 0.23 ppb C 2 H6, and a collocated deployment with a NOAA Picarro system agreed within 1.8 ppb CH 4 . Instrument noise varied substantially amongst the instruments, with errors reaching up to 11 ppb CH 4 and 2 ppb C 2 H 6 for hourly means, with similar variability indicated in a 50 h cylinder test. With appropriate engineering and calibration, the Aeris MIRA Ultra has the potential to distinguish regional methane emission sources in many field settings.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Biomass yield potential, feedstock quality, and nutrient removal of perennial buffer strips under continuous zero fertilizer application

Perennial-based buffer strips have been promoted as having the potential for improving ecosystem services from riparian areas while producing biomass as livestock feed or as a bioenergy feedstock. Both biomass production and nutrient removal of buffer strips are substantially influenced by the vegetation types for the multipurpose perennial buffers. In this 2016–2019 study in western Illinois, two perennial cropping systems, including forage crops composed of cool-season grass mixtures (forage system) and bioenergy crops made up of warm-season grass mixtures (bioenergy system), were used to establish buffer strips for assessing biomass production, feedstock quality, nutrient removal, and buffer longevity. Treatments for this study reflecting agronomic practices included (1) two harvests occurring in summer (at anthesis) and fall (after complete senescence) and (2) one harvest in fall for the forage system (two-cut vs. one-cut forage) and (3) one fall harvest for the bioenergy system (one-cut bioenergy). Successively harvesting without any fertilizer input resulted in a yield decline in forage biomass over 3 years by approximately 30 % (6.3 to 4.4 Mg DM ha –1 (dry matter) with a rate of 1.0 Mg ha –1 yr –1 ) in the two-cut forage and by 35 % (4.9 to 3.2 Mg DM ha –1 with a rate of 0.9 Mg ha –1 yr –1 ) in the one-cut forage systems. The feed quality also decreased over the years by showing declined rates of 12.9 (crucial protein), 0.9 (calcium), 0.7 (copper), and 1.3 g kg –1 DM yr –1 (zinc). Empirical models predicted enteric CH 4 emissions from cattle ranged from 225.7 to 242.6 g per cow per day based on the feed nutritive values. In contrast, bioenergy biomass yield increased by 27 % from 4.9 to 6.7 Mg DM ha –1 with a consistent quality (cellulose of ~ 397.9 g kg –1 ; hemicellulose of ~ 299.4 g kg –1 ), corresponding to the increased total theoretical ethanol yield from 1.8 × 10 3 to 2.4 × 10 3 L ha –1 (~ 33 % increase). Annual nutrient removals of N, P, K, Ca, and Mg were significantly higher in the forage systems (e.g., two-cut: 52.6–106.9 kg N ha –1 ; one-cut: 44.5–84.1 kg N ha –1 ) than those in the bioenergy system (e.g., 25.9–34.4 kg N ha –1 ); however, the removal rate declined rapidly over 3 years (e.g., ~ 49 % reduction) as the annual biomass yield declined in the forage systems. This on-farm field study demonstrated the potential of the perennial crop used as buffer strip options for biomass production and buffer sustainability at the edge of the field.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Implementation and Performance Evaluation of a Community-Scale Adobe Evaporative Cooling Chamber for Vegetable Preservation

The construction of evaporative coolers in remote areas can increase the longevity of vegetables, improving food security and the local economy of small farmers in remote, impoverished communities without access to electricity. This work presents a 1:1 scale prototype of an 8 m 3 (2.1 × 2.1 × 2.3 m) stabilized adobe evaporative cooler, with a design based on the appropriate technology framework, and it was built as a chamber using double adobe walls, filled with wet sand, to induce evaporative cooling. Furthermore, the paper presents the prototype’s performance evaluation. The tests were carried out in the dry and wet states, with different volumes of water. The results show good performance compared with other prototypes, although the optimum watering volume could not be determined because of the high climate variance (outside temperature and humidity) that prevented the repetition of the experiments in identical operating conditions. Stabilized adobe proved to be a good choice for use in the cooler, even when subject to moisture accumulation, indicating an estimated long lifetime for the cooler. The data obtained about the efficiency of evaporative cooling show that the cooler, as expected, has its best performance on the hottest and driest days, reducing the internal temperature (up to 13.24 °C) and managing to keep the internal humidity. The cost, efficiency, durability, and replicability make the proposed evaporative cooler a feasible solution for food preservation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Drying of tundra landscapes will limit subsidence-induced acceleration of permafrost thaw

We used a model for permafrost hydrology informed by detailed measurements of soil ice content to better understand the potential risk of abrupt permafrost thaw triggered by melting ground ice, a key open question associated with permafrost response to a warming Arctic. Our spatially resolved simulations of a well-characterized site in polygonal tundra near Utqiaġvik, Alaska, agree well with multiple types of observations in the current climate. Projections indicate 63 cm of bulk subsidence from 2006 to 2100 in the strong-warming Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate. Permafrost thaw as measured by the increase in active layer thickness (ALT)—the thickness of the soil layer that thaws each summer—is accelerated by subsidence, but the effect is relatively small. The ALT increases from the current-day value of approximately 50 cm to approximately 180 cm by 2100 when subsidence is included compared to about 160 cm when it is neglected. In these simulations, previously identified positive feedbacks between subsidence and thaw are self-limiting on decadal time frames because landscape runoff and increasing evapotranspiration result in drier tundra with weaker surface/atmosphere coupling. These results for a tundra site that is representative of large swathes of the Alaska North Slope suggest that subsidence is unlikely to lead to abrupt thaw over large areas. However, subsidence does have significant effects on the hydrology of polygonal tundra. Specifically, subsidence increases landscape runoff, which helps maintain streamflow in the face of increased evapotranspiration but also causes drier tundra conditions that could have deleterious effects on sensitive Arctic wetland ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Catalytic Bio-crude Production in a Novel, Short-Contact Time Reactor

RTI has developed a catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) process to produce biomass-based hydrocarbon replacement fuels. From a technology perspective, this advanced biofuels process produces liquid transportation fuels that can leverage capital expenditures in the existing petroleum distribution infrastructure. From a business perspective, this technology does not face potential market limitations caused by oxygenate blend limitations for light duty vehicle applications. A promising catalyst has been developed with excellent potential for deoxygenation to produce a hydrocarbon-rich biocrude that is more suitable for upgrading with traditional hydroprocessing technology. The role of the catalyst is to control the chemistry during biomass pyrolysis to produce a biocrude in a single step that has lower oxygen content and is more thermally stable than conventional biomass fast pyrolysis oil. Catalyst properties are optimized to minimize gas and coke production and improve catalytic deoxygenation and biocrude yields. Results from this project have demonstrated that biocrudes from catalytic fast pyrolysis contain <20 wt% oxygen, with the organic fraction as low as 12% oxygen. These oxygen numbers are > 50% lower compared to traditional fast pyrolysis oils. The biocrude produced from our CFP process can be upgraded to gasoline range hydrocarbons. A very conservative approach for upgrading included a preliminary stabilization step followed by a hydroprocessing step. The oxygen content in the upgraded product was decreased by 97% (to less than 3wt %) from the oxygen content of the biocrude sample. Additionally, the acid content was reduced by 99% from the acid content of the biocrude sample. In an optimized integrated process, the CFP step and the hydroprocessing (upgrading) step need to be carefully balanced to maximize the input biomass energy that is recovered in the finished biofuels. Hydrogen utilization and carbon recovery during both catalytic biomass pyrolysis and biocrude upgrading need to be optimized to maximize energy recovery in the finished biofuel. A nominal 1 ton per day (TPD) catalytic biomass pyrolysis system was designed based on the laboratory experimental data. The system was designed to achieve the short residence times (0.5–2 sec) and high heat transfer rates required for maximum liquid biocrude yields while optimizing process integration to maintain catalyst activity by continuous regeneration. The catalytic biomass pyrolysis reactor is a continuously circulating single-loop transport reactor design that is flexible enough to allow sensitivity studies around temperature, residence time, biomass feed rate, and catalyst-to-biomass ratio (i.e., catalyst circulation rate) for process optimization. For a nominal 100 lb/hr feed rate of dry biomass, the products include ~25 lb/hr char and coke, ~20 lb/hr permanent gases, and ~55 lb/hr condensable vapors. Pyrolysis temperatures are 350–600°C, and the system is operated close to ambient pressure. Production of the catalyst developed within the project was scaled up to provide enough material (200kg) for bench-scale testing. The 1TPD bench-scale unit was fabricated, installed and commissioned with this project. Biocrude samples from wood were produced in this unit with the CFP catalyst with material balance > 90%. The intermediate biocrude yields and chemical composition compare well with previous laboratory results and a hydroprocessing strategy for upgrading the resulting biocrude was developed. The experimental results obtained within this project were used to develop a process model for a 2000 TPD commercial facility. Detailed flow sheets were developed for all major unit operations in the process and provided a basis for an economic analysis to develop capital and operating costs. Estimates of the biofuel production costs were used to develop internal rates of return for the yields and compositions measured for the current state of technology at the end of this project and for the yields anticipated for an optimized (nth plant) scenario as additional process improvements are made.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Off-spec fly ash-based lightweight aggregate properties and their influence on the fresh, mechanical, and hydration properties of lightweight concrete: A comparative study

An off-spec fly ash-based spherical lightweight aggregate (LWA), designated as Spherical Porous Reactive Aggregate (SPoRA), was manufactured through a lab pilot-scale production and its engineering properties, including specific gravity, dry rodded unit weight, water absorption, mechanical performance, and pore structure, were evaluated. Using SPoRA, lightweight concrete (LWC) samples were made and their fresh, mechanical, and hydration properties were assessed and compared with LWC samples made using two commercial LWA available in the US market. The results indicated that fine and coarse SPoRA had 72 h water absorption capacities of 16.4 % and 20.9 %, respectively, which were higher than that of the two commercial LWAs. Higher saturated surface dry specific gravity of SPoRA compared to commercial LWAs led to a higher fresh density for the corresponding LWC. Using X-ray computed tomography, large spherical type pores were observed in SPoRA similar to those in the commercial slate-based LWA. Additionally, the pore size distribution of SPoRA, characterized by a dynamic vapor sorption analyzer, indicated that more than 97 % of the pores had diameters greater than 50 nm. SPoRA’s average bulk crushing strength was 6.8 MPa which was smaller than commercial LWA and was potentially attributed to the differences in manufacturing processes. Nonetheless, SPoRA LWC with 28 days compressive strength of 29 MPa passed the ASTM C330 requirement and had a comparable strength with LWC prepared with the commercial LWAs indicating lesser importance for the LWA strength. SPoRA LWC had a flowability of 5 % compared to LWC prepared with commercial LWAs having flowability of 18 %. This observation was potentially related to the fluxing agent used in the SPoRA production. SPoRA had a 70 % degree of hydration at 12 days which was comparable with that of LWC prepared with commercial LWA.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Date Release Report for Large Surface Explosion Coupling Experiment (LSECE) Nevada National Security Site

The DTRA sponsored 2020-2022 Large Surface Explosion Coupling Experiment (LSECE) consists of two large ground surface chemical explosions, data collection, analysis and modeling carried out in 2020-2022. The LSECE chemical explosions were carried out at the site of prior NNSA sponsored buried chemical explosions that were part of the Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Phase II in Dry Alluvium Geology (DAG). This report described the data collected under LSECE that is being made publicly available. The prior buried explosion DAG data are described in a separate report (https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1825534) and are also publicly available. The LSECE explosions, data analysis and numerical modeling work sponsored by DTRA were intended to address three objectives: 1) Generate seismo-acoustic data to test and improve numerical models of explosion energy coupling in dry alluvium geology; 2) To improve seismo-acoustic yield estimation techniques as a function of depth and medium properties; 3) To study and improve acoustic propagation modeling under two different atmospheric conditions. The LSECE data that were collected have expanded the prior DAG buried explosion dataset to include surface chemical explosions recorded on a common set of seismo-acoustic stations. They have allowed a more detailed study of above and below surface seismo-acoustic energy coupling with applications to explosion monitoring and assessment. The two approximately 1-ton TNT equivalent yield LSECE explosions were detonated at different times of the day to explore the effects of the different atmospheric conditions. The first chemical explosion “Artemis” was conducted before dawn when temperature inversions were present. The second chemical explosion “Apollo” was conducted on a sunny afternoon when the temperature gradient was more linear. The LSECE chemical explosion data were also collected across a variety of different sensor types to allow evaluation of their effectiveness in recovering useful information. The LSECE instrumentation included fiber optic or Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS), a dense array or Large-N array of seismometers, borehole accelerometers, DAS and a velocity meter, airborne acoustic instruments and a variety of visual and remote sensing data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Benchmark to Test Generalization Capabilities of Deep Learning Methods to Classify Severe Convective Storms in a Changing Climate

Abstract This is a test case study assessing the ability of deep learning methods to generalize to a future climate (end of 21st century) when trained to classify thunderstorms in model output representative of the present‐day climate. A convolutional neural network (CNN) was trained to classify strongly rotating thunderstorms from a current climate created using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at high‐resolution, then evaluated against thunderstorms from a future climate and found to perform with skill and comparatively in both climates. Despite training with labels derived from a threshold value of a severe thunderstorm diagnostic (updraft helicity), which was not used as an input attribute, the CNN learned physical characteristics of organized convection and environments that are not captured by the diagnostic heuristic. Physical features were not prescribed but rather learned from the data, such as the importance of dry air at mid‐levels for intense thunderstorm development when low‐level moisture is present (i.e., convective available potential energy). Explanation techniques also revealed that thunderstorms classified as strongly rotating are associated with learned rotation signatures. Results show that the creation of synthetic data with ground truth is a viable alternative to human‐labeled data and that a CNN is able to generalize a target using learned features that would be difficult to encode due to spatial complexity. Most importantly, results from this study show that deep learning is capable of generalizing to future climate extremes and can exhibit out‐of‐sample robustness with hyperparameter tuning in certain applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hydropower flexibility valuation tool for flow requirement evaluation

Timing of generation is becoming more and more valuable. This creates greater potential tension between environmental and power system objectives since both systems require their own flow patterns. Identifying win–win outcomes in this context requires being able to discuss the value of flexibility across stakeholder groups. This research proposes a two-stage optimization method to understand hydropower flexibility to meet both environmental and power system requirements. The tool simulates the two-settlement market process in the U.S. by maximizing revenues from both the day-ahead and real-time markets, subject to plant operational limits, regulatory flow and ramping requirements, and uncertainties associated with water availability and market prices. The model is formulated as linear programming problems and solved using IBM ILOG CPLEX optimizer. By examining a range of flow requirements, ramping constraints, and storage capacities, the proposed tool shows how to make more informed decisions to weigh the cost of specific flow requirements in the context of the overall license requirements. Results from the case study show that revenue is more sensitive to the ramping constraints than the minimum flow constraints. We also demonstrate that removing flow constraints in a dry month increases monthly revenue by up to 118%, as opposed to only 1% in a wet month. In addition, our results suggest that using a learning-based water flow forecast results in an increase of monthly revenue up to 6.4% compared with persistence forecast.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Nudging allows direct evaluation of coupled climate models with in situ observations: a case study from the MOSAiC expedition

Comparing the output of general circulation models to observations is essential for assessing and improving the quality of models. While numerical weather prediction models are routinely assessed against a large array of observations, comparing climate models and observations usually requires long time series to build robust statistics. Here, we show that by nudging the large-scale atmospheric circulation in coupled climate models, model output can be compared to local observations for individual days. We illustrate this for three climate models during a period in April 2020 when a warm air intrusion reached the MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) expedition in the central Arctic. Radiosondes, cloud remote sensing and surface flux observations from the MOSAiC expedition serve as reference observations. The climate models AWI-CM1/ECHAM and AWI-CM3/IFS miss the diurnal cycle of surface temperature in spring, likely because both models assume the snowpack on ice to have a uniform temperature. CAM6, a model that uses three layers to represent snow temperature, represents the diurnal cycle more realistically. During a cold and dry period with pervasive thin mixed-phase clouds, AWI-CM1/ECHAM only produces partial cloud cover and overestimates downwelling shortwave radiation at the surface. AWI-CM3/IFS produces a closed cloud cover but misses cloud liquid water. Our results show that nudging the large-scale circulation to the observed state allows a meaningful comparison of climate model output even to short-term observational campaigns. We suggest that nudging can simplify and accelerate the pathway from observations to climate model improvements and substantially extends the range of observations suitable for model evaluation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

The diurnal susceptibility of subtropical clouds to aerosols

The diurnal susceptibility of clouds and their radiative properties to aerosols is examined during their Lagrangian transition from subtropical stratocumulus to shallow cumulus regimes. Using large-eddy simulations, we analyze the six-day evolution of an air mass along a 3800 km observed trajectory from the coast of Peru toward the equator. Pristine and polluted scenarios are simulated with forcing imposed from weather reanalysis. The polluted scenario exhibits stronger diurnal variations in cloud water, cloud fraction, and albedo, with enhanced nighttime entrainment and suppressed precipitation. The overall response of cloud properties and outgoing shortwave radiation to droplet number concentration follows a distinct diurnal pattern: strong positive cloud adjustments dominate at night and in the morning, while weak negative adjustments prevail in the afternoon. This cycle is driven by the competition between precipitation suppression, which enhances cloud water and coverage, and entrainment drying, which depletes them. In polluted conditions, enhanced entrainment leads to a deeper and more decoupled boundary layer that cannot be sustained by surface fluxes in the afternoon, resulting in negative cloud adjustments. The enhanced entrainment rate under polluted conditions is caused by the reduced sedimentation of cloud and precipitation water from the entrainment zone. While the Twomey effect dominates the diurnal average albedo response, the diurnal variation in the competing cloud adjustments lead to a near-neutral net susceptibility in the afternoon, highlighting the critical role of diurnally varying processes in aerosol-cloud interactions.

Geosciences↗

DOE OSTI2024

Are Marine Low Cloud Droplet Concentrations Buffered by Entrained Aitken‐Mode Aerosol (Final Technical Report)

During the summertime, the high-latitude oceans come to life with green phytoplankton, which gain their energy from sunlight and are food for sea creatures small and large. When the phytoplankton are eaten or die, sulfur-rich gases are released under the ocean surface and mix into the air. Observations suggest that, over the Southern Ocean, frequent storms lift this air high into the atmosphere while raining out particulates like salt. As a result, the sulfur-rich air then spawns high concentrations of small ‘Aitken-mode’ aerosol particles. We hypothesize that these particles work their way down into the marine boundary layer, where they can replenish the supply of cloud-condensation nuclei scavenged by frequent precipitation. Further, this process maintains high concentrations of liquid cloud droplets in austral summer, promoting more sunlight to be reflected to space. We call this ‘Aitken buffering’. The primary objective of this project has been to document and test what role Aitken-mode aerosols play in clouds over the Southern Ocean and elsewhere. This effort has included three main components: 1) developing a computer model that realistically simulates the aerosol processes and the small-scale turbulent air motions that move aerosols around and create the clouds, 2) using that model to interpret and extend these observations for process understanding, by allowing different factors that contribute to the aerosol budget, such as surface wind speed, precipitation, surface gas exchange, etc. to be separated, and 3) studying Aitken-mode aerosol and its variability with a focus over the Southern Ocean and Antarctica, using data from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites and other available observations. Initial computer studies in more idealized conditions found that elevated concentrations of Aitken-mode aerosols above the clouds could help prevent the breakup of those clouds by acting as cloud-condensation nuclei after they were entrained into the cloudy boundary layer. Simulations of a day during the ACE-ENA field campaign showed that Aitken-mode aerosols could also prevent cloud breakup under more realistic conditions. A new method that extracts information about Aitken-mode aerosols from measurements of aerosols onto which cloud droplets can form finds that Aitken-mode aerosols do vary seasonally over the Southern Ocean, with a peak in summertime, as described above. Other work during this project has focused on understanding how patterns of water vapor, clouds and precipitation are coupled within low-lying clouds over the oceans, and also on how cloud droplets cluster within clouds and how the distribution of cloud droplet sizes change as dry air is mixed into clouds, with the latter studies also using observations from ACE-ENA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Agroecosystem model simulations reveal spatial variability in relative productivity in biomass sorghum and maize in Iowa, USA

Biomass sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) is an annual C 4 grass that has emerged as a candidate bioenergy crop but has not been widely grown in the United States. Corn (Zea mays L.), another annual C 4 grass, has been produced on a large scale in the United States for biofuels. Iowa leads the nation in both corn and ethanol production. The high productivity of corn in Iowa creates the research question: could biomass sorghum be as or more productive than corn in the state in terms of bioenergy? Efforts to use crop models to fill the gaps left by field experimentation on biomass sorghum have also been limited thus far. To address our research question, we collected biophysical data on biomass sorghum grown in Iowa for two growing seasons, used them to develop a biomass sorghum module in an agroecosystem model (Agro-IBIS), and predict the potential performance of biomass sorghum across Iowa compared to maize. Despite dry conditions in 2019 and 2020, average biomass sorghum yields were 17.20 Mg ha –1 . By comparison, average corn aboveground biomass was higher in 2020 (22.02 Mg ha –1 ). Soil cores indicated average belowground biomass of 1.46 Mg ha –1 , with roots concentrated near the surface (73% of biomass above 50 cm in a 1 m core). When biomass sorghum model parameters were calibrated with measured values, model output was in close agreement with measured biomass (slope = 0.932, R 2 = 0.91) and evapotranspiration (slope = 0.757, R 2 = 0.64). Subsequent regional simulations revealed a notable latitudinal gradient in biomass sorghum yield, with a strong linear relationship between yield and seasonal growing degree-days (R 2 = 0.89). When these yields were compared to simulated corn aboveground biomass yields, only 3.4% of the state had biomass sorghum yields that were significantly higher than corn. This number was reduced to 0.3% when comparing the crops in terms of energy ethanol yield. Thus, we conclude biomass sorghum must be improved to be competitive with corn as an annual biofuel crop in Iowa. This study provides a baseline against which to compare advancements in sorghum breeding for biomass and stress tolerance in Iowa.

Agro-IBIS↗