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At least 217 records · Page 12

Emerging Pathways to Upgrade the US Housing Stock: A Review of the Home Energy Upgrade Literature

The residential buildings sector is responsible for about 20% of total US energy use. In order to achieve climate goals, we need ways to reduce carbon emissions and energy use in this sector. In addition, resiliency, electric grid stability, emergency survivability and other energy and building-related issues are becoming increasingly important challenges. New homes in most of the US meet various energy codes and are reasonably energy efficient. However, the vast majority of energy use is from existing homes that were not required to conform to energy performance requirements. It is becoming imperative to reach as many of these existing homes as possible and find ways to improve their energy-related performance. This must be done in such a way that it meets the needs and desires of homeowners and building occupants, as well as those of the contractors and design professionals engaged in doing the upgrades themselves. Energy retrofits of homes started in the 1970’s in response to the energy crisis, however, these retrofits were very limited in scope and relatively few homes were upgraded. Those homes that have been upgraded generally still have much scope for improvement. A huge effort is needed to get to scale to address the energy use in housing. The target population is effectively every home in the country, whether a large suburban single-family home, or a small downtown apartment. In order to provide a framework for analysis and the basis for plans to get to large-scale retrofits of homes, this literature review summarizes the state-of-the art in the US buildings industry. It identifies where more research, engineering, or technology is needed, as well as relevant industry trends, such as electrification, one-stop shop program design and others. It also examines other key topics, such as availability of financing, minimizing household disruption, and engaging home owners and occupants. This literature review builds on a similar review from several years ago (Less and Walker, 2014). The current review focuses on efforts in the intervening years. This literature review is part of a larger DOE study of deep energy upgrades that includes industry surveys and development of cost-stack analyses. For this review, we gathered data not just from the published literature, but also from practitioners in conjunction with other aspects of the larger DOE study. In some cases, we refer to comments from specific individuals or companies, or refer to specific products by name. This is not intended as an endorsement, but rather to provide clarity on sources of information and examples of relevant technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

2022 GETEM Geothermal Drilling Cost Curve Update: Preprint

The Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) is an essential tool for the Department of Energy's (DOE) Geothermal Technology Office (GTO) to understand the performance and cost of technologies it is seeking to improve. This detailed model is used for supply curve analyses, assessing the current economic feasibility and Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of hydrothermal geothermal systems and EGS, and evaluating the potential impact of advanced geothermal technologies. GETEM can be used to estimate the performance and costs of currently available U.S. geothermal power systems. It is also used to estimate the costs of technologies 5 to 20 years in the future, given the direction of potential research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) projects. The model is intended to help GTO determine which proposed RD&D programs and projects might offer the most efficient improvement when using taxpayer funding. The model requires annual updates as well as revisions to reflect the current state of the art. Drilling costs are a significant portion of total geothermal development costs. The current GETEM drilling cost inputs rely on drilling data from 2009 and require an updated analysis of more recent data to ensure they remain representative of current technologies. An updated, more accurate understanding of costs could help the geothermal industry secure project development financing and investment funding and better allow the oil and gas (O&G) industry (both operators and service companies) weigh potential geothermal market participation and customization. This report details recent drilling improvements from the Utah Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) and O&G, comparing drilling performance and costs with values in GETEM, particularly the baseline drilling cost curves. Though drilling performance at FORGE has improved significantly, we did not find associated cost decreases that would justify lowering the GETEM baseline cost curves as of now.

API↗

SPECs Early-Stage Decision Model: User Manual

The SPECs Early-Stage Decision (ESD) model is central to the SPECs procurement solutions toolkit. The ESD model is an Excel-based spreadsheet model, which provides information about the economic and strategic value of a proposed battery-storage project or solar-plus-storage (solar-plus) project. The model can be used to explore combinations of storage-related project value streams in order to define a potential project, while educating co-op decision-makers about project benefits and costs. A sensitivity analysis function speeds the development of "what-if" scenarios. A gap analysis function solves for top-priority metrics and supports the inclusion of hard-to-monetize strategic values, such as the value of storage to defer costly system upgrades in light of increasing distributed solar and other distributed energy resources (DERs). Model outputs include the utility data, assumptions, and use-case scenarios that are recommended content for the requests for proposals (RFPs). The model may also provide an initial "sanity check" for RFP responses, supporting further discussions among utility staff, vendors and stakeholders. The ESD is not a "finance-grade" modeling tool, and users are cautioned to be mindful of its limitations, but the model has been reviewed by users, who recommend it as a way to drive faster and better project design and planning, as well as to facilitate better communications with vendors, grid partners, and stakeholders.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

2022 GETEM Geothermal Drilling Cost Curve Update

The Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) is an essential tool for the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) to understand the performance and cost of technologies it is seeking to improve. This detailed model is used for supply curve analyses, assessing the current economic feasibility and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of hydrothermal geothermal systems and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), and evaluating the potential impact of advanced geothermal technologies. GETEM can be used to estimate the performance and costs of currently available U.S. geothermal power systems. It is also used to estimate the costs of technologies 5 to 20 years in the future, given the direction of potential research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) projects. The model is intended to help GTO determine which proposed RD&D programs and projects might offer the most efficient improvement when using taxpayer funding. The model requires annual updates as well as revisions to reflect the current state of the art. Drilling costs are a significant portion of total geothermal development costs. The current GETEM drilling cost inputs rely on drilling data from 2009 and require an updated analysis of more recent data to ensure they remain representative of current technologies. An updated, more accurate understanding of costs could help the geothermal industry secure project development financing and investment funding and better allow the oil and gas (O&G) industry (both operators and service companies) to weigh potential geothermal market participation and customization. This report details recent drilling improvements from the Utah Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE) and the O&G sector, comparing drilling performance and costs with values in GETEM, particularly the baseline drilling cost curves. Although drilling performance at FORGE has improved significantly, we did not find associated cost decreases that would justify lowering the GETEM baseline cost curves at this time.

API↗

Retail Rate Projections for Long-Term Electricity System Models

Electricity prices reported in most electricity-system planning studies leave out many price components and do not translate into retail rates, making it difficult to interpret how projected electricity system changes will impact costs to consumers. Full transmission costs are left out of many studies; distribution and administration costs are similarly excluded or highly simplified. Here, we present a detailed bottom-up accounting method for projecting future retail electricity rates in the United States. Making the simplifying assumption that each state is served by an investor-owned utility (IOU), we translate projected generation and transmission capacity and costs from the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity-expansion model into IOU balance sheet expenditures, accounting for depreciation, taxes, and the breakdown between operating and capitalized (rate-based) expenses. Distribution, administration, and intra-regional transmission costs are projected forward based on empirical trends over the past decade. Modeled bottom-up electricity rates are compared to historical rates from 2010-2019, and the sensitivity of modeled rates to a range of financing and modeling assumptions is explored. Distribution and administration rate components account for roughly 40% (4.4 ¢/kWh) of the projected national-average retail rate over 2020-2050 under central assumptions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Data-Driven Understanding of Low-to-Moderate Income Customers’ Adoption and Financial Qualification in Community Solar (Final Technical Report)

When Solstice began working in the community solar industry, it quickly became clear that there was a wide disparity along race and class lines in terms of what kind of household traditional solar offerings benefited. Solstice is an organization that aligns itself to the principles of a Just Transition, or the concept that a transition to a green economy should benefit and prioritize historically marginalized groups of people. Given that low-income communities are disproportionately burdened by our current polluting fossil fuel economy, Solstice set out to investigate the root causes of the exclusion of low to moderate income (LMI) households in the community solar market. As we worked more and more with financiers, developers, and LMI households, we recognized that significant barriers to entry in a developer-owned project were credit threshold requirements. A FICO score of 750 and higher discriminates against LMI households that are not financially stable enough to take on multiple lines of credit (or who may not have been deemed credit worthy enough to access a line of credit) yet who may have been reliable utility customers. As Solstice began looking further into preliminary data and speaking to community-based organizations (CBOs) that serve LMI households, we found our hypothesis to be worth investigating; there was indeed a subset of LMI households with poor FICO scores (or no FICO score at all) that had perfect bill payment history. Though initially Solstice was intent on gathering a body of data to prove or disprove this hypothesis, we were also concerned that all this proof of a financially stable and reliable customer was not being incorporated into FICO, and wondered if such a score would be possible. After preliminary research into the existence of alternative scores, Solstice realized that many mission-driven lending institutions rely on alternative metrics that are formulated for their specific industry. However, we also realized that community solar did not have an alternative credit underwriting mechanism, though there was great need from solar financiers for one. We anticipated that the creation of an EnergyScore would contribute to financiers’ need to qualify more people, as these entities are desperately looking for ways to lower the cost of customer acquisition. FICO turns away nearly 50% of potential customers (according to our own acquisition experience), and much of the community solar industry is realizing that FICO is not the perfect qualifying mechanism. Additionally, with a grounding in energy justice, just transitions, and climate justice, Solstice recognizes the need for a solution that addresses a more urgent need for LMI households to access renewable energy savings and relieve energy burdens. With funding from the Department of Energy, we gathered the data necessary to build the EnergyScore, reached out to mission-driven developers willing to test the metric, and secured several demonstration projects to pilot the EnergyScore. After acquiring customers for these demo projects using the EnergyScore, we will be continuously collecting customer payment behavior data. Though it goes beyond the scope of this project, we plan to disseminate this de-identified data with the wider community solar industry, which includes not only financiers and developers, but other mission-driven nonprofits, solar cooperatives, community-based organizations, environmental justice activists, and academics. While we intend to disprove the notion that LMI households cannot be included in projects without acutely increasing the risk to project finances, we also hope the data can be used to negotiate better pricing of systems and terms of ownership for community groups seeking to build inclusive projects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Technoeconomic Analysis of Steel Production with Electric Thermal Energy Storage

The iron and steel industry is an important manufacturing sector and one of the largest energy consumers in the United States and globally. Hydrogen direct reduction of iron ore (H2DRI) is considered a promising process that could enhance domestic steel production. This process requires hydrogen inlet temperatures up to 950 degrees C to drive the endothermic reduction of the iron ore pellets. In this work we investigate the technoeconomic performance of an H2DRI plant using electric thermal energy storage (ETES) technologies for the hydrogen heating, compared to conventional natural gas fired heaters, hydrogen fired heaters, and electric hydrogen heaters. A technoeconomic analysis framework for the plant is developed and used in multiple case studies, covering different hydrogen prices, grid electricity profiles, and financing scenarios. The levelized cost of steel production is found out to be in the range of $775-950/mt, which is mostly inside the benchmarked steel price of $941/mt. ETES-based hydrogen heating is found to be in par with conventional natural gas fired heaters, and cheaper than hydrogen fired heaters and electric hydrogen heaters. The major cost drivers are the iron ore and hydrogen feedstock, followed by the hydrogen compression and heating capital. Several insights and suggested future directions are identified.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Flexible Financial Credit Agreements: Low-Interest Secured Flex Loans (LISFL)

Flexible Financial Credit Agreements is a broad term used to describe a suite of solar products with innovative features not currently offered in traditional solar financing programs. This brief focuses on a flex loan program that offers a no- or low-cost capital source to bridge the gap between the initial installation cost and the ultimate receipt of tax credits and energy savings. This program also provides low interest rates, for affordability, as well as a pre-funded debt service reserve account (DSRA), and is secured by the solar PV asset.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

Residential Solar-Adopter Income and Demographic Trends: November 2022 Update [Slides]

The report describes income, demographic, and other socio-economic trends among U.S. residential rooftop solar adopters. The report is based on address-level data for roughly 2.8 million residential rooftop solar systems installed through 2021, representing 86% of all U.S. systems. With its unique size, geographic scope, and level of detail, this report is intended to serve as a foundational reference document for policy-makers, industry stakeholders, and researchers. Key findings include the following: -Median solar adopter income was about $\$110$k/year in 2021, compared to a U.S. median of about $\$63$k/year for all households and $\$79$k/year for all owner-occupied households -The degree of income skew varies significantly across all states, but all states exhibit some positive income skew, with median solar-adopter incomes ranging from 131-168% of the respective county-median income for all households -Notwithstanding the fact that solar adopter incomes skew high, a substantial share of adopters could be considered low-to-moderate income (LMI), with 22% of all 2021 adopters earning less than 80% of area median income, and an additional 21% between 80% and 120% of area median income. -Solar-adopter incomes are declining over time, with median incomes dropping from $\$129$k in 2010 to $\$110$k in 2021, as adoption becomes more proportionately distributed across the population and has started to broaden into low- and middle-income states since 2016. -Solar-adopter incomes are consistently higher for systems paired with battery storage, for host-owned systems, and for systems installed on single-family homes; higher income adopters also consistently install larger systems. -Solar adopters tend to live in Census Tracts not identified as “disadvantaged communities” (using the U.S. Department of Energy’s interim definitions developed March 2022), making up 11% of adopters compared to 18% of U.S. households. -Compared to the broader population, solar adopters tend to: identify as Non-Hispanic White, be primarily English-speaking, have higher education levels, be middle-aged, work in business and finance-related occupations, and live in higher-value homes In conjunction with the report, Berkeley Lab has published an updated accompanying set of online data visualizations that allow users to further explore the underlying data. Berkeley Lab is also offering related analytical support to states, local agencies, and other organizations on issues related to solar adoption among low-to-moderate income households; requests for analytical support may be submitted through this online form.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Validation of wind resource and energy production simulations for small wind turbines in the United States

Abstract. Due to financial and temporal limitations, the small wind community relies upon simplified wind speed models and energy production simulation tools to assess site suitability and produce energy generation expectations. While efficient and user-friendly, these models and tools are subject to errors that have been insufficiently quantified at small wind turbine heights. This study leverages observations from meteorological towers and sodars across the United States to validate wind speed estimates from the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), revealing average biases within ±0.5 m s−1 at small wind hub heights. Observations from small wind turbines across the United States provide references for validating energy production estimates from the System Advisor Model (SAM), Wind Report, MyWindTurbine.com, and Global Wind Atlas 3 (GWA3), which are seen to overestimate actual annual capacity factors by 2.5, 4.2, 11.5, and 7.3 percentage points, respectively. In addition to quantifying the error metrics, this paper identifies sources of model and tool discrepancies, noting that interannual fluctuation in the wind resource, wind speed class, and loss assumptions produces more variability in estimates than different horizontal and vertical interpolation techniques. The results of this study provide small wind installers and owners with information about these challenges to consider when making performance estimates and thus possible adjustments accordingly. Looking to the future, recognizing these error metrics and sources of discrepancies provides model and tool researchers and developers with opportunities for product improvement that could positively impact small wind customer confidence and the ability to finance small wind projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

How To Determine and Verify Operations and Maintenance Savings in Energy Savings Performance Contracts

Operations and maintenance (O&M) savings frequently occur in energy savings performance contracts (ESPCs). During FY 2022, 37% of reported annual cost savings for projects awarded under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) ESPC indefinite delivery indefinite quantity (IDIQ) contracts and in the performance period were due to O&M or other energy- and/or water-related cost savings, with the balance (63%) from utility cost savings (i.e., energy or water cost savings). Sometimes the energy- and water-related cost savings are acknowledged and included in payments within ESPCs; other times, for various reasons, they are not. As presented in this guide, FEMP recommends including energy- and water-related cost savings that are O&M (including related repair and replacement) savings in the financial aspects of an ESPC, to the extent such savings can be documented. Inclusion of these savings will help augment project scopes and/or lower interest costs (by shortening financing terms). However, there is a burden of proof as to what constitutes acceptability in O&M savings that needs to be carefully considered and documented in individual projects. Beyond promoting a key tenet used in U.S. federal performance contracting—that savings must be from actual budgets and therefore based on the level of O&M that is actually occurring, not what should have been performed—FEMP also recommends good practice in establishing and documenting O&M baselines, formulating the rationale for baseline adjustments during the performance period, and conducting ongoing verification activities. This document concludes with five examples of how O&M savings may be handled, in situations ranging from the partial displacement of O&M contracts to consolidation and “virtualization” of servers in data centers. A key theme that permeates this guide is the importance of thoroughly documenting all conditions and assumptions used in the development of and accounting for O&M costs and savings throughout the ESPC life cycle, from baseline-setting to measurement and verification (M&V) of the savings during each year of the performance period. Doing so not only prevents internal claims of non-performance (especially in the case of staff turnover during the contract term), but also simplifies ordering agency and energy service company (ESCO) response in the event of scrutiny from oversight organizations, such as government audits. While this guide focuses on federal ESPCs, it may also be applicable when O&M savings are included in utility energy service contracts (UESCs) and non-federal ESPCs.

Voss, Phil↗

GEOPHIRES Simulations for Deep Direct Use (DDU) Projects

This folder contains the GEOPHIRES codes and input files for running the base case scenarios for the six deep direct-use (DDU) projects. The six DDU projects took place during 2017-2020 and were funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office. They investigated the potential of geothermal deep direct-use at six locations across the country. The projects were conducted by Cornell University, West Virginia University (WVU), University of Illinois (U of IL), Sandia National Laboratory (SNL), Portland State University (PSU), and National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Four projects (Cornell, WVU, U of IL, SNL) investigated geothermal for direct heating of a local campus or community, the project by PSU considered seasonal subsurface storage of solar heating, and the NREL project investigated geothermal heating for turbine inlet cooling using absorption chillers. To allow comparison of techno-economic results across the six DDU projects, GEOPHIRES simulations were set up and conducted for each project. The GEOPHIRES code was modified for each project to simulate the local application and incorporate project-specific assumptions and results such as reservoir production temperature or financing conditions. The base case input file is included which simulates the base case conditions assumed by each project team. The levelized cost of heat (LCOH) is calculated and matches the base case LCOH reported by the project teams.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

The impact of policies and business models on income equity in rooftop solar adoption

Low- and moderate-income (LMI) households are less likely to adopt rooftop solar photovoltaics (PVs) than higher-income households in the United States. As the existing literature has shown, this dynamic can decelerate rooftop PV deployment and has potential energy justice implications, in light of the cost-shifting between PV and non-PV households that can occur under typical rate structures and incentive programmes. Here we show that some state policy interventions and business models have expanded PV adoption among LMI households. Additionally, we find evidence that LMI-specific financial incentives, PV leasing and property-assessed financing have increased the diffusion of PV adoption among LMI households in existing markets and have driven more installations into previously underserved low-income communities. By shifting deployment patterns, we posit that these interventions could catalyse peer effects to increase PV adoption in low-income communities even among households that do not directly benefit from the interventions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Innovative Pathways: Transforming Impact Investments to Working Capital For Early Stage Cleantech Companies: Los Angeles Cleantech Incubator (January 1, 2020 to March 31, 2020)

Project Objectives: The focus for the entirety of the last quarter was on the completion of the pilot loan funding within our portfolio, and the closing out of our DOE-CAP Grant: “Innovative Pathways: Transforming Impact Investments to Working Capital for Early Stage Cleantech Companies.” The fourteenth quarter (Q14) of the program performance was also dedicated toward two main activities: the continued fundraising efforts for a formalized LACI debt fund, as well as finalization of the lending processes for pilot underwriting amongst the LACI Team and with Mission Driven Finance. This quarter marked key successes around the workflows of the DOE-CAP grant, specifically around fund capitalization efforts. Activities during the thirteenth quarter included: 1. Finalization of the DOE-CAP grant activities and work-flows; 2. Due diligence, underwriting and issuance of one (1) loan in Q1 2021 and three (3) in Q4 2020 for technology providers in grant-funded zero emissions mobility & community pilots, in partnership with LACI and local organizations, totaling ten (10) total loans; 3. Development of fundraising and marketing materials, and distribution to 30+ possible funding sources over the course of Q13 & Q14; and 4. Reinvigoration of conversations with Mission Driven Finance, the prospective underwriting partner for key activities and governance documents, and finalization of all loan processing activities once the fund is capitalized

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

CSP Plant Construction, Start-Up, and O&M Best Practices Study

There are currently 90 operational CSP plants of 10 MW or larger located throughout the world, primarily in Spain, U.S., MENA region, South Africa, and China. In 2018, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded Solar Dynamics, under subcontract to NREL, to investigate and document lessons learned and best practices associated with the construction, start-up, and operations phases of a majority of these plants. DOE funding for the effort was leveraged by additional funds provided through SolarPACES and the World Bank. This information was obtained by interviewing key stakeholders representing CSP plant owners, operators, construction companies, vendors, technical advisors and financers of these systems, and will be published as an NREL Technical Report at the completion of the project. This paper provides an overview of key challenges facing today's CSP parabolic trough and power tower technologies during all the phases mentioned above.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Geolocated dataset of Chinese overseas development finance

China is now the world's largest source of bilateral development finance and will likely continue to play a prominent role in sovereign lending through its multi-billion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative. This paper introduces major methodological enhancements in tracking this finance: the use of an original application programming interface (API) to gathers news in multiple languages; double verification of every record to ensure every finance commitment has been formalized; and visual geo-location to trace the precise footprint of every project. The resulting dataset enables economic, environmental, and social analyses with high-precision spatial accuracy, as well as spatiotemporal monitoring by project stakeholders and enhanced planning by project managers. It covers the years 2008-2019 to enable analysis before and after the announcement of the Belt and Road Initiative. It includes 862 finance commitments, 669 of which have geographic location, to 94 countries across the world.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Clean Grid Vision: A U.S. Perspective - Chapter 4. Demand-Side Development

This chapter focuses on recent developments on the demand side of the electricity system in the United States and beyond. After decades of slow-moving change in power system technology, business models, regulatory structures, and even financing schemes, changes on the demand side are accelerating rapidly. These changes are also more tightly linking the supply side with the demand side. This chapter provides high-level summaries of traditional subjects like demand-side management, which includes energy efficiency and demand response, and then transition to a subject that has gathered increasing attention as the most dynamic change likely to impact power systems in the coming decades: beneficial electrification. In each case, we attempt to address the impacts on system flexibility to the degree possible. These demand-side subjects are widely considered essential elements of a clean grid strategy.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Foundational Open Source Solar System Modeling Through Improvement and Validation of the System Advisor Model and PVWatts (FY19-FY21 Final Technical Report)

Accelerating intelligent deployment of solar energy technologies demands accurate system modeling every step of the way. From project development to policy research, grid integration studies to development of novel technologies, industry and researchers alike need validated, transparent, easy-to-use, extensible, cutting-edge, and accurate models of both the performance and financing of solar systems. The System Advisor Model (SAM) and PVWatts tools provide a platform to fill that need. The overarching goal of this set of software tools is to enable accurate PV system modeling across the industry, and our usage metrics indicate that we continue to succeed in that endeavor, with a user starting SAM every 2 minutes globally, and over 17 million PVWatts hits per month. This project leveraged DOEs past investment in the SAM and PVWatts platforms to continue to provide valuable and extensible PV, battery, and financial modeling resources to the larger solar community. We pursued multiple avenues in parallel: software maintenance and technical support that are foundational to the continued usability of the SAM and PVWatts platforms; platform and PV model improvements and stakeholder engagement activities that are core to the continued relevance of the platforms; and open source activities to foster the continued creation of a vibrant open-source community around the SAM and PVWatts tools, which opens up exciting new opportunities for industry interaction.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗