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At least 217 records · Page 12

Landslide Hazard is Projected to Increase Across High Mountain Asia

High Mountain Asia has long been known as a hotspot for landslide risk, and studies have suggested that landslide hazard is likely to increase in this region over the coming decades. Extreme precipitation may become more frequent, with a nonlinear response relative to increasing global temperatures. However, these changes are geographically varied. This article maps probable changes to landslide hazard, as shown by a landslide hazard indicator (LHI) derived from downscaled precipitation and temperature. In order to capture the nonlinear response of slopes to extreme precipitation, a simple machine-learning model was trained on a database of landslides across High Mountain Asia to develop a regional LHI. This model was applied to statistically downscaled data from the 30 members of the Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research large ensembles to produce a range of possible outcomes under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5 and 5-8.5. The LHI reveals that landslide hazard will increase in most parts of High Mountain Asia. Absolute increases will be highest in already hazardous areas such as the Central Himalaya, but relative change is greatest on the Tibetan Plateau. Even in regions where landslide hazard declines by year 2100, it will increase prior to the mid-century mark. However, the seasonal cycle of landslide occurrence will not change greatly across High Mountain Asia. Although substantial uncertainty remains in these projections, the overall direction of change seems reliable. These findings highlight the importance of continued analysis to inform disaster risk reduction strategies for stakeholders across High Mountain Asia.

Thomas A Stanley↗

An Ensemble Approach to Building Mercer Kernels with Prior Information

This paper presents a new methodology for automatic knowledge driven data mining based on the theory of Mercer Kernels, which are highly nonlinear symmetric positive definite mappings from the original image space to a very high, possibly dimensional feature space. we describe a new method called Mixture Density Mercer Kernels to learn kernel function directly from data, rather than using pre-defined kernels. These data adaptive kernels can encode prior knowledge in the kernel using a Bayesian formulation, thus allowing for physical information to be encoded in the model. Specifically, we demonstrate the use of the algorithm in situations with extremely small samples of data. We compare the results with existing algorithms on data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and demonstrate the method's superior performance against standard methods. The code for these experiments has been generated with the AUTOBAYES tool, which automatically generates efficient and documented C/C++ code from abstract statistical model specifications. The core of the system is a schema library which contains templates for learning and knowledge discovery algorithms like different versions of EM, or numeric optimization methods like conjugate gradient methods. The template instantiation is supported by symbolic-algebraic computations, which allows AUTOBAYES to find closed-form solutions and, where possible, to integrate them into the code.

Srivastava, Ashok N.↗

Uncertainty-Aware Machine Learning for Small-Angle X-ray Scattering Analysis in Autonomous Experimentation

Small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) is a powerful high-throughput characterization tool for probing nanoscale structure in native sample environments, providing real-time morphological information such as nanoparticle size and shape during synthesis. However, automated SAXS data analysis for extracting meaningful structural parameters is non-trivial and remains a bottleneck in closed-loop experimentation towards autonomous materials discovery, which demands fast, reliable, and uncertainty-aware data analysis. Here, we develop a machine-learning approach for automated SAXS analysis tailored to closed-loop nanoparticle synthesis. A Random Forest (RF) regression model is trained on 100,000 synthetic SAXS curves generated from polydisperse spherical nanoparticles with realistic background contributions. Using normalized one-dimensional SAXS intensity profiles as input, the RF model directly predicts nanoparticle radius, size polydispersity, and background parameters, while the ensemble standard deviation across trees provides built-in uncertainty quantification (UQ). On synthetic data, we show that combining fit-quality metrics (R 2 , MAE) with thresholds on prediction uncertainty reliably identifies accurate parameter estimates without access to ground truth. We then apply the trained model to 365 experimental SAXS profiles of citrate-reduced gold nanoparticles synthesized using an automated droplet-flow microreactor with in situ SAXS at a synchrotron beamline, classifying the results into high- and low-confidence subsets based on UQ metrics. Finally, we integrate RF-based SAXS analysis into a simulated closed-loop optimization campaign using Gaussian process Bayesian optimization to minimize nanoparticle polydispersity, benchmarking against conventional automated Levenberg–Marquardt fitting. The RF-guided campaign exhibits substantially faster convergence and lower relative opportunity cost (∼0.07 vs ∼0.3), demonstrating that uncertainty-aware machine-learning SAXS analysis significantly enhances the efficiency and robustness of autonomous nanomaterials synthesis workflows.

Bayesian optimization↗

Sensor Reduction for Diversion Detection in a Realistic Heat Pipe Microreactor Using Supervised Machine Learning

Microreactors are designed as a smaller, cheaper, and safer alternative to traditional nuclear power plants. Their non-traditional characteristics and prospect of mass production and deployment will likely require new approaches to nuclear safeguards. The primary proliferation concern with microreactors is the diversion of fuel material. Such diversion may produce measurable defects in key physical attributes like neutron flux, which may in turn be detectable using machine learning models. Preliminary work has demonstrated this ability for modeled nominal and diversion scenarios using large quantities of energy integrated neutron flux data. In practice, the number of available sensors for such measurements will be limited and energy integrated flux information will not be available. This work explores the ability of tree-based gradient boosted ensemble models to classify a given microreactor core is nominal or diversion, and determine the number of fuel pins diverted in the case of diversion with reduced numbers of sensors and more realistic detector responses. Classification accuracy of greater than 98% and regression errors as low as 5% of the total number of fuel pins were achieved with as few as 15 sensors, compared to 99% and 4.1% with a maximum of 240 sensors.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Development and Implementation of a Comprehensive Radiometric Validation Protocol for the CERES Earth Radiation Budget Climate Record Sensors

The CERES Flight Models 1 through 4 instruments were launched aboard NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra and Aqua Spacecraft into 705 Km sun-synchronous orbits with 10:30 a.m. and 1:30 p.m. equatorial crossing times. These instruments supplement measurements made by the CERES Proto Flight Model (PFM) instrument launched aboard NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) into a 350 Km, 38-degree mid-inclined orbit. CERES Climate Data Records consist of geolocated and calibrated instantaneous filtered and unfiltered radiances through temporally and spatially averaged TOA, Surface and Atmospheric fluxes. CERES filtered radiance measurements cover three spectral bands including shortwave (0.3 to 5 microns), total (0.3 to 100 microns) and an atmospheric window channel (8 to 12 microns). The CERES Earth Radiation Budget measurements represent a new era in radiation climate data, realizing a factor of 2 to 4 improvement in calibration accuracy and stability over the previous ERBE climate records, while striving for the next goal of 0.3-percent per decade absolute stability. The current improvement is derived from two sources: the incorporation of lessons learned from the ERBE mission in the design of the CERES instruments and the development of a rigorous and comprehensive radiometric validation protocol consisting of individual studies covering different spatial, spectral and temporal time scales on data collected both pre and post launch. Once this ensemble of individual perspectives is collected and organized, a cohesive and highly rigorous picture of the overall end-to-end performance of the CERES instrument's and data processing algorithms may be clearly established. This approach has resulted in unprecedented levels of accuracy for radiation budget instruments and data products with calibration stability of better than 0.2-percent and calibration traceability from ground to flight of 0.25-percent. The current work summarizes the development, philosophy and implementation of the protocol designed to rigorously quantify the quality of the data products as well as the level of agreement between the CERES TRMM, Terra and Aqua climate data records.

Priestley, K. J.↗

Deep-learning-derived planetary boundary layer height from conventional meteorological measurements

Abstract. The planetary boundary layer (PBL) height (PBLH) is an important parameter for various meteorological and climate studies. This study presents a multi-structure deep neural network (DNN) model, which can estimate PBLH by integrating the morning temperature profiles and surface meteorological observations. The DNN model is developed by leveraging a rich dataset of PBLH derived from long-standing radiosonde records augmented with high-resolution micro-pulse lidar and Doppler lidar observations. We access the performance of the DNN with an ensemble of 10 members, each featuring distinct hidden-layer structures, which collectively yield a robust 27-year PBLH dataset over the southern Great Plains from 1994 to 2020. The influence of various meteorological factors on PBLH is rigorously analyzed through the importance test. Moreover, the DNN model's accuracy is evaluated against radiosonde observations and juxtaposed with conventional remote sensing methodologies, including Doppler lidar, ceilometer, Raman lidar, and micro-pulse lidar. The DNN model exhibits reliable performance across diverse conditions and demonstrates lower biases relative to remote sensing methods. In addition, the DNN model, originally trained over a plain region, demonstrates remarkable adaptability when applied to the heterogeneous terrains and climates encountered during the GoAmazon (Green Ocean Amazon; tropical rainforest) and CACTI (Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions; middle-latitude mountain) campaigns. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of deep learning models in estimating PBLH, enhancing our understanding of boundary layer processes with implications for improving the representation of PBL in weather forecasting and climate modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Revealing the evolution of order in materials microstructures using multi-modal computer vision

The development of high-performance materials for microelectronics, energy storage, and extreme environments depends on our ability to describe and direct property-defining microstructural order. Our present understanding is typically derived from laborious manual analysis of imaging and spectroscopy data, which is difficult to scale, challenging to reproduce, and lacks the ability to reveal latent associations needed for mechanistic models. Here, we demonstrate a multi-modal machine learning (ML) approach to describe order from electron microscopy analysis of the complex oxide La 1−x Sr x FeO 3 . We construct a hybrid pipeline based on fully and semi-supervised classification, allowing us to evaluate both the characteristics of each data modality and the value each modality adds to the ensemble. We observe distinct differences in the performance of uni- and multi-modal models, from which we draw general lessons in describing crystal order using computer vision.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Detection of Diversion in a Realistic Heat Pipe Microreactor Using Supervised Machine Learning

Microreactors (MRs) pose new challenges for international safeguards. Here, their small size and mass reproducibility make them ideal for deployment in greater numbers and in remote locations, making the job of safeguards inspectors more challenging. Machine learning (ML) is currently being applied to many fields to augment human performance and increase automation; in particular, ML could be used to provide insight for international inspectors to help detect the diversion of nuclear fuel from MR cores. Four ML model types (k-nearest neighbors, decision tree, random forest, and histogram-based gradient boosted ensemble) were trained on integrated flux and critical control drum angle data generated with Serpent 2 for a realistic heat pipe MR design, achieving nearly 100% binary classification accuracy of nominal and diversion core configurations by the end of 1 full power year for three of the four model types. Regression model variants were also trained, using the same input data, for predicting the number of fuel pins diverted. Root-mean-square errors below 5% of the total number of fuel pins were achieved by the 1 full power year mark for all models.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Prediction of Distributed River Sediment Respiration Rates Using Community-Generated Data and Machine Learning

River sediment microbial respiration is a key indicator of ecosystem functioning and the biogeochemical fluxes across this critical zone link surface and subsurface waters. As such, there is tremendous interest in measuring and mapping these respiration rates. Respiration observations are expensive and labor intensive; there is limited data available to the community. An open science, collaborative initiative is collecting samples for respiration rate analysis and multi-scale metadata; this evolving data set is being used for making machine learning (ML) predictions at unsampled sites to help inform continued community engagement. However, it is a challenge to find an optimum configuration for ML models to work with this feature-rich (i.e., 100+ possible input variables) data set. Here, we present results from a two-tiered approach to managing the analysis of this complex data set: (a) a stacked ensemble of models that automatically optimizes hyperparameters and manages the training of many models and (b) feature permutation importance to detect the most important features in the models. The major elements of this workflow are modular, portable, open, and cloud-based thus making this implementation a potential template for other applications. The models developed here predict that sediment organic matter chemistry is one of the most important features for predicting sediment respiration rate. Other larger-scale, important features fall into the categories of climatic, ecological, geological, and fluvial settings. Leveraging these larger-scale features to generate data-driven estimates of river sediment respiration rates reveals spatially consistent but heterogeneous patterns across the river network of the Columbia River Basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

gRASPA

GPU Monte Carlo Simulation Code with a taste of RASPA We present enhancements in Monte Carlo simulation speed and functionality within an open-source code, gRASPA, which uses graphical processing units (GPUs) to achieve significant performance improvements compared to serial, CPU implementations of Monte Carlo. The code supports a wide range of Monte Carlo simulations, including canonical ensemble (NVT), grand canonical, NVT Gibbs, Widom test particle insertions, and continuous-fractional component Monte Carlo. Implementation of grand canonical transition matrix Monte Carlo (GC-TMMC) and a novel feature to allow different moves for the different components of metal-organic framework (MOF) structures exemplify the capabilities of gRASPA for precise free energy calculations and enhanced adsorption studies, respectively. The introduction of a High-Throughput Computing (HTC) mode permits many Monte Carlo simulations on a single GPU device for accelerated materials discovery. The code can incorporate machine learning (ML) potentials. The open-source nature of gRASPA promotes reproducibility and openness in science, and users may add features to the code and optimize it for their own purposes. The code is written in CUDA/C++ and SYCL/C++ to support different GPU vendors. The gRASPA code is publicly available at https://github.com/snurr-group/gRASPA.

Li, Zhao [Purdue/Northwestern/Notre Dame Universit↗

Spectral Data Fusion From Handheld Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) and X-ray Fluorescence (XRF) Analyzers for Improved Detection of Cerium in a Simulated Dispersal Accident

Here, this work implements a mid-level data fusion methodology on spectral data from handheld X-ray fluorescence and laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy analyzers to quantify plutonium surrogate (CeO 2 ) contamination in soil samples for the first time. Spectral data from each analyzer were used independently to train supervised machine learning regressions to predict Ce concentration. Fused features from both data sets were then used to train the same models, comparing prediction performance by evaluating model precision and sensitivity. Fusing principal component scores from the two sensors yielded an order of magnitude improvement in precision and sensitivity of predictions made with an artificial neural network, compared to predictions made by models trained on independent sensor data. As a result, a boosted ensemble trained on the fused spectral features yielded an ideal predictor with root-mean-squared error on the order of 10 –6 and calculated limit of detection order 10 –5 wt %.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Inverse Mapping of the Collision Kernel and Wall Flux Scaling in a Tall Convection‐Cloud Chamber Using Local Sensors and Knowledge‐Informed Deep Learning

Droplet collision–coalescence is a crucial process in cloud physics, but accurately representing this process under different dynamical conditions remains challenging. A proposed future convective‐cloud chamber aims to investigate this key process, but the method for observing it remains unclear, even though it is theoretically established that collision‐coalescence will occur. This study serves as a proof‐of‐concept demonstration of how knowledge‐informed deep learning, combined with measurement data from local sensors in the chamber, can be used to estimate the collision kernels, which determine how the droplet size distribution evolves during collision‐coalescence. In addition to estimating the collision kernel, we also address wall fluxes, another uncertain but important process that acts as a source of heat and moisture in the chamber. Ensemble runs of large‐eddy simulations are conducted by scaling the wall fluxes and the collision kernel, while the measured flow and cloud properties are used as inputs for a neural network. Results indicate that this approach successfully maps the scaling of wall fluxes and the collision kernel with biases of approximately 1% or less relative to the range of the target data. This proof‐of‐concept lays the groundwork for future applications; when the real measurements are available, real sensor data combined with the trained model presented in this work will enable estimation of the actual wall fluxes and collision kernel.

cloud chamber↗

Gearbox bearing crack growth prognostics and uncertainty quantification with physics-informed machine learning

This paper introduces the extreme theory of functional connections (X-TFC), a physics-informed machine learning algorithm, and tailors it to estimate the remaining useful life (RUL) of wind turbine gearbox bearings experiencing fatigue crack growth. Unlike purely data-driven methods, X-TFC embeds a physics model, based on Head's theory in this work, into its training objective. The core of X-TFC is a random-projection single-layer neural network trained via an extreme learning machine, which requires only limited damage progression data and solves for output weights with a least-squares optimization algorithm. A composite loss function balances the network's fit to observed degradation data against the residuals of the governing crack growth differential equation, ensuring the learned damage trajectory remains physically plausible. When applied to a vibration-based health-index (HI) dataset measured during the growth of a crack on the inner ring of a high-speed bearing in a wind turbine gearbox (Bechhoefer and Dubé, 2020), X-TFC achieves near-zero prediction bias. Even when trained on only the first 10 %–20 % of the damage progression data, with sufficient physics weighting its predictions remain monotonic and smooth, delivering high prognosability and trendability. To quantify the epistemic uncertainty, we employ a Monte Carlo ensemble of independently initialized X-TFC models trained on noise-perturbed data, which yields confidence intervals around each RUL estimate and captures both model-parameter and epistemic uncertainty. In addition to a vibration-based HI, we demonstrate that the proposed framework can be directly applied to a supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data-based HI (Eftekhari Milani et al., 2026) measured during similar wind turbine gearbox bearing crack faults, preserving its accuracy and interpretability. This extension shows the versatility of our approach, which is applicable to bearings of multiple gearbox manufacturers, models, and ratings using only SCADA data. By integrating domain knowledge with machine learning, X-TFC offers a rapid, reliable tool for crack prognostics. Its adaptability to other bearing failure modes, such as pitch bearing ring cracks, positions X-TFC as a powerful enabler of data-driven, physics-informed asset management in the wind energy sector and beyond.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A 1 km soil moisture dataset over eastern CONUS generated by assimilating SMAP data into the Noah-MP land surface model

An improved fine-scale soil moisture (SM) dataset at 1 km grid spacing, covering much of the eastern continental US, was generated by assimilating 9 km Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) SM data into the v4.0.1 Noah-MP land surface model. With 12 ensemble members, the assimilation was carried out using the ensemble Kalman filter algorithm within NASA's Land Information System. The SM analysis for 2016 was fully validated against in situ observations from four different networks and compared with four other existing datasets. Results indicate that this SM analysis surpasses other datasets in top-layer SM distribution, including a machine-learning-based product, despite all SM estimates being less heterogeneous than observed. The analysis of anomalous errors suggests that large similarity in intrinsic errors is likely due to overlapping data sources among the selected SM datasets. More detailed evaluations were performed over two geographic areas. The observations collected by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement facility in Oklahoma suggest that soil temperature and surface heat fluxes are concurrently simulated with good accuracy. Investigation into the 2016 southeastern US drought response further indicates drier conditions and higher evapotranspiration estimates compared to GLEAMv4.1. Notably, large errors are associated with grids having clay soil textures, underscoring the need for refined model treatments for specific soil types to further improve SM estimates. The dataset is publicly available on Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14370563 (Tai et al., 2024).

Tai, Sheng-Lun [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗

Comparisons of some large scientific computers

In 1975, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) began studies to assess the technical and economic feasibility of developing a computer having sustained computational speed of one billion floating point operations per second and a working memory of at least 240 million words. Such a powerful computer would allow computational aerodynamics to play a major role in aeronautical design and advanced fluid dynamics research. Based on favorable results from these studies, NASA proceeded with developmental plans. The computer was named the Numerical Aerodynamic Simulator (NAS). To help insure that the estimated cost, schedule, and technical scope were realistic, a brief study was made of past large scientific computers. Large discrepancies between inception and operation in scope, cost, or schedule were studied so that they could be minimized with NASA's proposed new compter. The main computers studied were the ILLIAC IV, STAR 100, Parallel Element Processor Ensemble (PEPE), and Shuttle Mission Simulator (SMS) computer. Comparison data on memory and speed were also obtained on the IBM 650, 704, 7090, 360-50, 360-67, 360-91, and 370-195; the CDC 6400, 6600, 7600, CYBER 203, and CYBER 205; CRAY 1; and the Advanced Scientific Computer (ASC). A few lessons learned conclude the report.

Credeur, K. R.↗

Addressing bias in bagging and boosting regression models

As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes widespread, there is increasing attention on investigating bias in machine learning (ML) models. Previous research concentrated on classification problems, with little emphasis on regression models. This paper presents an easy-to-apply and effective methodology for mitigating bias in bagging and boosting regression models, that is also applicable to any model trained through minimizing a differentiable loss function. Our methodology measures bias rigorously and extends the ML model's loss function with a regularization term to penalize high correlations between model errors and protected attributes. We applied our approach to three popular tree-based ensemble models: a random forest model (RF), a gradient-boosted model (GBT), and an extreme gradient boosting model (XGBoost). We implemented our methodology on a case study for predicting road-level traffic volume, where RF, GBT, and XGBoost models were shown to have high accuracy. Despite high accuracy, the ML models were shown to perform poorly on roads in minority-populated areas. Our bias mitigation approach reduced minority-related bias by over 50%.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Machine Learning Models to Predict Cognitive Impairment of Rodents Subjected to Space Radiation

This research uses machine-learned computational analyses to predict the cognitive performance impairment of rats induced by irradiation. The experimental data in the analyses is from a rodent model exposed to ≤ 15 cGy of individual Galactic Cosmic Radiation (GCR) ions: 4He, 16O, 28Si, 48Ti, or 56Fe, expected for a Lunar or Mars mission. This work investigates rats at a subject-based level and uses performance scores taken before irradiation to predict impairment in Attentional Set-shifting (ATSET) data post-irradiation. Here, the worst performing rats of the control group define the impairment thresholds based on population analyses via cumulative distribution functions, leading to the labeling of impairment for each subject. A significant finding is the exhibition of a dose-dependent increasing probability of impairment for 1 to 10 cGy of 28Si or 56Fe in the Simple Discrimination (SD) stage of the ATSET, and for 1 to 10 cGy of 56Fe in the Compound Discrimination (CD) stage. On a subject-based level, implementing Machine Learning (ML) classifiers such as the Gaussian Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machine, and Artificial Neural Networks identifies rats that have a higher tendency for impairment after GCR exposure. The algorithms employ the experimental prescreenperformance scores as multidimensional input features to predict each rodent’s susceptibility to cognitive impairment due to space radiation exposure. The receiver operating characteristic and the precision-recall curves of the ML models show a better prediction of impairment when 56Feis the ion in question in both SD and CD stages. They, however, do not depict impairment due to 4Hein SD and 28Siin CD, suggesting no dose-dependent impairment response in these cases. One key finding of our study is that prescreen performance scores can be used to predict the ATSET performance impairments. This result is significant to crewed space missions as it supports the potential of predicting an astronaut’s impairment in a specific task before spaceflight through the implementation of appropriately trained ML tools. Future research can focus on constructing ML ensemble methods to integrate the findings from the methodologies implemented in this study for morerobust predictionsof cognitive decrements due to space radiation exposure.

space radiation↗

Machine Learning Applications to Metal-Silicate Equilibria and their Insights into Core Formation

An extensive number of studies have experimentally investigated how elements distribute between metal and silicate phases, to better constrain core-mantle chemical equilibrium. Here, we present a new database compiling all (to our knowledge) experimental data on liquid metal-silicate partitioning from 118 peer-reviewed publications. We applied various machine learning techniques to gain further insights into these partitioning equilibria and their dependencies. We performed a network analysis to investigate the relationship between experiments and partition coefficients, which enables visualizing gaps in the experimental dataset and biases related to varying experimental conditions and analytical setup. In addition, semi-empirical thermodynamic models are commonly used to extrapolate these chemical reactions to the wide range of pressure, temperature and compositional conditions of planetary differentiation. These models are based on linear regressions that assume continuous relationship between partition coefficients and experimental variables. Here, we considered random forest regressions, which are algorithms based on ensembles of decision trees and does not consider continuous effects of each variable. The application of this regression significantly improves the prediction of metal-silicate partitioning for several elements including Ni, Si and Cr. We will show how this new approach improves our understanding of elemental exchange between metal and silicate and their implications for the Earth’s core formation.

siderophile element↗