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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 217 records · Page 12
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Brillouin Sensing with PCA, and PCA-Based Neural Networks for Efficient Temperature Monitoring

This work explores peak estimation techniques in Brillouin Optical Time Domain Analysis (BOTDA), emphasizing both accuracy and efficiency. Euclidean distance measurement method is applied to principal components derived from Brillouin Gain Spectrum data. It offers a major speed advantage being 180 170 times faster than traditional curve fitting methods such as Lorentzian curve fitting, while maintaining similar accuracy. Additionally, a PCA- based neural network model shows significant reduction of peak estimation time compared to Lorentzian fitting. Results show Brillouin frequency shift errors lie under 0.75 MHz in both Euclidean distance-based and neural network-based methods, both of which utilize PCA components. For large data sets and long length fibers, PCA- assisted neural network for peak estimation would be an efficient solution.

Distributed optical fiber sensing↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hurricane wind field representation shapes storm surge and building-scale flood hazard estimates

Coastal flood hazard estimates rely on precise hurricane wind forecasts to assess damage and risk. Here, we demonstrate that errors in hurricane wind field representation can lead to significant biases in storm surge and property-level damage estimates. Using Hurricane Ian (2022) as a case study, we compare widely used parametric, reanalysis, and hybrid wind datasets. Improved wind field accuracy reduces storm surge and damage estimate bias by up to 70\%. Our results underscore the importance of accurately predicting hurricane wind structure in hazard assessments.

Coastal Flooding↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Multi-Region SEIR Model Incorporating Inter-County Mobility and Time-Dependent Transmission Dynamics: Application to COVID-19 Disease Outbreak Data in North Carolina.

Classical infectious disease compartmental models typically do not incorporate spatial heterogeneity or mobility. We develop a multi-region susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model in which disease dynamics are coupled via inter-region mobility and the transmission rate is both region and time dependent. We calibrate the model using rolling averages of daily COVID-19 data in all 100 North Carolina counties. Mobility parameters are prescribed using daily inter-county commuter data. The number of transmission rate parameters is substantially reduced by hypothesizing that the dynamics correlate with county-level population density. Parameter estimation is carried out using several objective functions with error terms at different scales. An additive combination of least squares error at the county-level and the state-level, along with a quadratic transmission rate polynomial, yields the lowest overall error at both spatial scales. The calibrated model is used to simulate regional effects of perturbing disease transmission rates in adjacent counties and to illustrate effects of the state’s mobility infrastructure on disease dynamics and spread for a new disease outbreak.

COVID-19 modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Snow Distribution Patterns Revisited: A Physics-Based and Machine Learning Hybrid Approach to Snow Distribution Mapping in the Sub-Arctic

Snowpack distribution in Arctic and alpine landscapes often occurs in repeating, year-to-year patterns due to local topographic, weather, and vegetation characteristics. Previous studies have suggested that with years of observational data, these snow distribution patterns can be statistically integrated into a snow process modeling workflow. Recent advances in snow hydrology and machine learning (ML) have increased our ability to predict snowpack distribution using in-situ observations, remote sensing data sets, and simple landscape characteristics that can be easily obtained for most environments. Here, we propose a hybrid approach to couple a ML snow distribution pattern (MLSDP) map with a physics-based, snow process model. We trained a random forest ML algorithm on tens of thousands of snow survey observations from a subarctic study area on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, collected during peak snow water equivalent (SWE). We validated hybrid model outputs using in-situ snow depth and SWE observations, as well as a light detection and ranging data set and a distributed temperature profiling sensor data set. When the hybrid results were compared with the physics-based method, the hybrid method more accurately depicted the spatial patterns of the snowpack, areas of drifting snow, and years when no in-situ observations were used in the random forest ML training data set. The hybrid method also showed improvements in root mean squared error at 61% of locations where time-series estimations of snow depth were observed. These results can be applied to any physics-based model to improve the snow distribution patterning to reflect observed conditions in high latitude and high elevation cold region environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A semi-analytic estimate for the effective sound speed counterterm in the EFTofLSS

The Effective Field Theory of Large Scale Structure (EFTofLSS) has found tremendous success as a perturbative framework for the evolution of large scale structure, and it is now routinely used to compare theoretical predictions against cosmological observations. The model for the total matter field includes one nuisance parameter at 1-loop order, the effective sound speed, which can be extracted by matching the EFT to full N-body simulations. In this work we first leverage the Layzer-Irvine cosmic energy equation to show that the equation of state can be exactly computed with knowledge of the fully nonlinear power spectrum. When augmented with separate universe methods, we show one can estimate the effective sound speed. This estimate is in good agreement with simulation results, with errors at the few tens of percent level. Here, we apply our method to investigate the cosmology dependence of the effective sound speed and to shed light on what cosmic structures shape its value.

Cosmological perturbation theory in GR and beyond↗
DOE OSTI2025

HAMscope: a snapshot Hyperspectral Autofluorescence Miniscope for real-time molecular imaging

We introduce HAMscope, a compact, snapshot hyperspectral autofluorescence miniscope that enables real-time, label-free molecular imaging in a wide range of biological systems. By integrating a thin polymer diffuser into a widefield miniscope, HAMscope spectrally encodes each frame and employs a probabilistic deep learning framework to reconstruct 30-channel hyperspectral stacks (452-703 nm) or directly infer molecular composition maps from single images. A scalable multi-pass U-Net architecture with transformer-based attention and per pixel uncertainty estimation enables high spatio-spectral fidelity (mean absolute error ∼0.0048) at video rates. While initially demonstrated in plant systems, including lignin, chlorophyll, and suberin imaging in intact poplar and cork tissues, the platform is readily adaptable to other applications such as neural activity mapping, metabolic profiling, and histopathology. We show that the system generalizes to out-of-distribution tissue types and supports direct molecular mapping without the need for spectral unmixing. HAMscope establishes a general framework for compact, uncertainty-aware spectral imaging that combines minimal optics with advanced deep learning, offering broad utility for real-time biochemical imaging across neuroscience, environmental monitoring, and biomedicine.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating Interplanetary Magnetic Field Conditions at Mercury's Orbit From MESSENGER Magnetosheath Observations Using a Feedforward Neural Network

Abstract Mercury's small magnetosphere is embedded in the dynamic and intense solar wind environment characteristic of the inner heliosphere. Both the magnitude and orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) significantly influence the solar wind‐magnetospheric interaction at Mercury, driving phenomena such as magnetic reconnection. The MErcury Surface, Space Environment, Geochemistry and Ranging (MESSENGER) spacecraft provided in‐situ magnetic field measurements of the solar wind, the magnetosheath, and the magnetosphere along each orbit. However, it is a challenge to directly assess the IMF's impact on Mercury's plasma environment due to the temporal separation between observations within the solar wind and the magnetosphere, especially in the absence of an upstream monitor. Here, we present a feedforward neural network (FNN) trained on a subset of magnetosheath observations to estimate the strength and orientation of the IMF upstream of the bow shock. Utilizing magnetosheath magnetic field, cylindrical spatial coordinates, and heliocentric distance measurements, the FNN predicts upstream IMF conditions with an score of 0.70 and mean averaged error of 5.3 nT, thereby greatly decreasing the temporal separation between IMF estimates and magnetospheric measurements throughout the MESSENGER mission. This approach yields IMF estimates for all magnetosheath data measured by MESSENGER, providing a useful tool for future investigations of the IMF impact on Mercury's magnetosphere. This method will be integrable with the dual‐spacecraft BepiColombo magnetosheath measurements, providing useful estimates of upstream IMF conditions particularly during the extended periods in which neither spacecraft sample the solar wind. Our results demonstrate the utility of machine learning techniques on advancing space science research.

Bowers, Charles F.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Performance Evaluation of Intelligent Solar Control Software Through Hardware-in-the-Loop (CRADA Final Report)

Recent research has highlighted the potential for solar to act as a zero-marginal-cost and zero-emission flexibility resource on the bulk power system when operated with advanced control systems. To increase the performance of these systems, leading technologies, including machine learning (ML) and hierarchical inverter set point allocation, have been developed by Latimer Controls, Inc. to estimate the headroom of large PV plants for grid operation and control; however, these technologies lack comprehensive validation under real-world application scenarios. Latimer Controls, Inc. received two voucher awards for research at a national laboratory from the Department of Energy American Made Solar Prize Round 6. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was selected to collaborate with Latimer staff to conduct a performance evaluation of Latimer PV control software. The NREL team will develop a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed to perform testing and validation of the Latimer PV control technology in a de-risked yet realistic testbed environment. Latimer and NREL worked together to analyze the test data, draw conclusions from the results, and disseminate the resulting scientific findings. In this CRADA work, we propose to test and validate the real-world application of the Latimer Control solution in an HIL environment. We evaluate the performance of different flexible solar technologies in responding to automatic generation control signals in a closed-loop fashion. In particular, a data-driven potential high limit (PHL) estimation is developed for large solar plants to accurately estimate their headroom so that they have fast and short-time regulation and control capability to participate in grid services and respond to grid signals in real time (e.g., AGC). This PHL estimation algorithm is embedded in a hardware power plant controller (PPC) and tested with an IEEE-39 bus system model developed in RTDS. To account for the varying cloud conditions and diverse inverter dispatches, we developed a 135-MW PV plant with detailed modeling of 27 individual PV modules and inverters using RTDS. The real-world communications used in such big plants, such as ModBus TCP/IP for inverter level and DNP3 for plant level, were developed to emulate the real-world applications in big PV plants. The ML-based PHL estimation method is tested under nine separate weather scenarios against the ‘reference-control’ solution, hereafter referred to as the baseline solution. The baseline method reserves a subset of inverters (reference group) to operate at their PHL at all times and dispatches only the remaining inverters (control group) at curtailed levels to fulfill the flexibility need. Despite being successfully piloted by NREL in California in 2017 and Chile in 2020, there exist two gaps in the state of the art to fully unlock the flexibility of PV plants: a. There is a trade-off between the PHL estimation accuracy and the flexibility range. b. There lacks granularity in the PHL estimation to capture the variation across inverters. The Latimer solution seeks to address these gaps by applying machine learning methods to improve PHL estimation accuracy while accounting for variability at every inverter. Performance metrics were taken from the 2023 Georgia Power CARES utility-scale RFP. The results demonstrate that the ML-based approach outperforms the traditional baseline method in PHL estimation accuracy for 7 of 9 scenarios. The average PHL error across the nine scenarios was 7.40% for the ML-based method, 2.06% less than the 9.46% PHL error average across scenarios that was exhibited by the baseline method. Additionally, the PHL error was below 5% for at least 95% of the testing interval for 3 of 9 tested intervals with the ML approach, whereas it did not achieve this metric for any of the baseline tests. Overall, simulation results indicate the superior performance of an ML-based approach compared to the conventional baseline reference-control approach, showcasing its potential to support grid stability and operational efficiency. This laboratory HIL testing using real PPC, representative power system simulation models in real-time with detailed PV plant and inverter models, and real-world communication protocols gives us confidence that this machine learning based PHL estimation algorithm works well in the hardware PPC and therefore de-risks future field commissioning. The end goal of this project is to advance grid technology to address the grid operation challenges brought by solar plant’s variability and uncertainties in power generation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hamiltonian learning using machine-learning models trained with continuous measurements

Here, we build upon recent work on the use of machine-learning models to estimate Hamiltonian parameters using continuous weak measurement of qubits as input. We consider two settings for the training of our model: (1) supervised learning, where the weak-measurement training record can be labeled with known Hamiltonian parameters, and (2) unsupervised learning, where no labels are available. The first has the advantage of not requiring an explicit representation of the quantum state, thus potentially scaling very favorably to a larger number of qubits. The second requires the implementation of a physical model to map the Hamiltonian parameters to a measurement record, which we implement using an integrator of the physical model with a recurrent neural network to provide a model-free correction at every time step to account for small effects not captured by the physical model. We test our construction on a system of two qubits and demonstrate accurate prediction of multiple physical parameters in both the supervised context and the unsupervised context. We demonstrate that the model benefits from larger training sets, establishing that it is “learning,” and we show robustness regarding errors in the assumed physical model by achieving accurate parameter estimation in the presence of unanticipated single-particle relaxation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

GALIC: hybrid multi-qubitwise pauli grouping for quantum computing measurement

Abstract Observable estimation is a core primitive in NISQ-era algorithms targeting quantum chemistry applications. To reduce the state preparation overhead required for accurate estimation, recent works have proposed various simultaneous measurement schemes to lower estimator variance. Two primary grouping schemes have been proposed: full commutativity (FC) and qubit-wise commutativity (QWC), with no compelling means of interpolation. In this work we propose a generalized framework for designing and analyzing context-aware hybrid FC/QWC commutativity relations. We use our framework to propose a noise-and-connectivity aware grouping strategy: Generalized backend-Aware pauLI Commutation (GALIC). We demonstrate how GALIC interpolates between FC and QWC, maintaining estimator accuracy in Hamiltonian estimation while lowering variance by an average of 20% compared to QWC. We also explore the design space of near-term quantum devices using the GALIC framework, specifically comparing device noise levels and connectivity. We find that error suppression has a more than 10 × larger impact on device-aware estimator variance than qubit connectivity with even larger correlation differences in estimator biases.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hyperspectral imaging for real-time waste materials characterization and recovery using endmember extraction and abundance detection

Hyperspectral imaging, combined with advanced spectral unmixing techniques and artificial intelligence, offers a powerful solution for improving material identification and classification. Here, this study evaluates the effectiveness of the pixel purity index and the sequential maximum angle convex cone algorithms in extracting and validating spectral signatures from pure samples of paper components (cellulose and lignin) and plastic (polypropylene). Principal-component analysis showed that both algorithms captured nearly all relevant variance for the tested materials. Spectral signatures were compared using the spectral angle mapper, revealing high similarity in the short-wave infrared region and greater variability in the visible near-infrared range. The methodology was then applied to a disposable coffee cup to detect and quantify mixed materials, accurately estimating material abundance and object area with less than 1% error. This approach enhances material classification, supporting product verification, quality control, and automated sorting for sustainable waste management and resource recovery.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rapid wavefield forecasting for earthquake early warning via deep sequence to sequence learning

We propose a deep learning model, WaveCastNet, to forecast high-dimensional wavefields. WaveCastNet integrates a convolutional long expressive memory architecture into a sequence-to-sequence forecasting framework, enabling it to model long-term dependencies and multiscale patterns in both space and time. By sharing weights across spatial and temporal dimensions, WaveCastNet requires significantly fewer parameters than more resource-intensive models such as transformers, resulting in faster inference times. Crucially, WaveCastNet also generalizes better than transformers to rare and critical seismic scenarios, such as high-magnitude earthquakes. Here, we show the ability of the model to predict the intensity and timing of destructive ground motions in real time, using simulated data from the San Francisco Bay Area. Furthermore, we demonstrate its zero-shot capabilities by evaluating WaveCastNet on real earthquake data. Our approach does not require estimating earthquake magnitudes and epicenters, steps that are prone to error in conventional methods, nor does it rely on empirical ground-motion models, which often fail to capture strongly heterogeneous wave propagation effects.

Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mobility and threshold voltage extraction in transistors with gate-voltage-dependent contact resistance

The mobility of emerging (e.g., two-dimensional, oxide, organic) semiconductors is commonly estimated from transistor current-voltage measurements. However, such devices often experience contact gating, i.e., electric fields from the gate modulate the contact resistance during measurements, which can lead conventional extraction techniques to estimate mobility incorrectly even by a factor >2. Although this error can be minimized by measuring transistors at high gate-source bias |V gs |, this regime is often inaccessible in emerging devices that suffer from high contact resistance or early gate dielectric breakdown. Here, we propose a method of extracting mobility in transistors with gate-dependent contact resistance that does not require operation at high |V gs |, enabling accurate mobility extraction even in emerging transistors with strong contact gating. Our approach relies on updating the transfer length method (TLM) and can achieve <10% error even in regimes where conventional techniques overestimate mobility by >2×

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Updating PV and Battery Bill Savings Calculations for Net Billing: New Best Practices for Input Data and Uncertainty

Jurisdictions are increasingly adopting compensation structures for distributed PV and PV-battery systems that price exported energy lower than energy consumed onsite (net billing rates). Standard methods for calculating the bill savings from PV and PV-battery systems were developed for net metering structures, and applying these same methods to net billing structures (such as using Typical Meteorological Year weather with actual year load) introduces bias errors that underestimate PV-battery system bill savings by between 1.5\% and 9\%, depending on the utility rate. We assess the magnitude of these errors and compare them to other sources of uncertainty when estimating the bill savings from PV and PV-battery systems under more complex utility rates.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Batch VUV4 characterization for the SBC-LAr10 scintillating bubble chamber

The Scintillating Bubble Chamber (SBC) collaboration purchased 32 Hamamatsu VUV4 silicon photomultipliers (SiPMs) for use in SBC-LAr10, a bubble chamber containing 10 kg of liquid argon. A dark-count characterization technique, which avoids the use of a single-photon source, was used at two temperatures to measure the VUV4 SiPMs breakdown voltage (V BD ), the SiPM gain (g SiPM ), the rate of change of g SiPM with respect to voltage (m), the dark count rate (DCR), and the probability of a correlated avalanche (P CA ) as well as the temperature coefficients of these parameters. A Peltier-based chilled vacuum chamber was developed at Queen's University to cool down the Quads to 233.15 ± 0.2 K and 255.15 ± 0.2 K with average stability of ±20 mK. An analysis framework was developed to estimate V BD to tens of mV precision and DCR close to Poissonian error. The temperature dependence of V BD was found to be 56 ± 2 mV K -1 , and m on average across all Quads was found to be (459 ± 3(stat.)±23(sys.))× 10 3 e- PE -1 V -1 . The average DCR temperature coefficient was estimated to be 0.099 ± 0.008 K -1 corresponding to a reduction factor of 7 for every 20 K drop in temperature. The average temperature dependence of P CA was estimated to be 4000 ± 1000 ppm K -1 . P CA estimated from the average across all SiPMs is a better estimator than the P CA calculated from individual SiPMs, for all of the other parameters, the opposite is true. All the estimated parameters were measured to the precision required for SBC-LAr10, and the Quads will be used in conditions to optimize the signal-to-noise ratio.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Field validation of dynamic mechanical torque measurements using fiber-optic strain sensors for geared wind turbines

Abstract Accurate knowledge of the mechanical loads of wind turbine gearboxes has become essential in modern, highly loaded gearbox designs, as maintaining or even improving gearbox reliability with increasing torque density demands is proving to be challenging. Unfortunately, the traditional method of measuring dynamic mechanical torque using strain gauges placed on the outer surface of a rotating shaft and transmitting the resulting signal is unsuitable for serial deployment due to technical and economic constraints. An alternative method based on fiber-optic strain sensors placed on the stationary outer surface of the gearbox ring gear has been proposed. Like shaft torsion, the radial deformation of the ring gear is proportionate to the rotor torque. Placing the sensors on a stationary component is a cost-effective alternative for serial implementation because the need for complex and expensive data transfer via wireless transmission or a slip ring is eliminated. In this paper, we present the results of an extensive field experiment conducted to evaluate the torque measurement accuracy of this novel sensing solution installed on the gearbox of a Gamesa G97 2-MW wind turbine at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s Flatirons Campus. Torque measurements derived from fiber-optic strain sensors placed on the ring gear of the planetary stage are compared to conventional torque measurements from strain gauges placed on the main shaft. Two different torque estimation data processing methods were evaluated, with the method based on operational deflection shapes providing the most accurate results with an average normalized root mean square error below 0.7% for a load revolution distribution analysis. The effect of operating conditions on the torque estimate was also investigated, and the third planet-passing operational deflection shape was found to be the least sensitive to nontorque load-related effects. The fiber-optic strain sensors’ successful operation during the complete test campaign has demonstrated a robust and accurate solution for fleet-wide enhanced gearbox remaining useful life estimation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Field Validation of Dynamic Mechanical Torque Measurements for Geared Wind Turbines

Accurate knowledge of the mechanical loads of wind turbine gearboxes has become essential in modern, highly loaded gearbox designs, as maintaining or even improving gearbox reliability with increasing torque density demands is proving to be challenging. Unfortunately, the traditional method of measuring dynamic mechanical torque using strain gauges placed on the outer surface of a rotating shaft and transmitting the resulting signal is unsuitable for serial deployment due to technical and economic constraints. An alternative method based on fiber-optic strain sensors placed on the stationary outer surface of the gearbox ring gear has been proposed. Like shaft torsion, the radial deformation of the ring gear is proportionate to the rotor torque. Placing the sensors on a stationary component is a cost-effective alternative for serial implementation because the need for complex and expensive data transfer via wireless transmission or a slip ring is eliminated. In this paper, we present the results of an extensive field experiment conducted to evaluate the torque measurement accuracy of this novel sensing solution installed on the gearbox of a Gamesa G97 2-MW wind turbine at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Flatirons Campus. Torque measurements derived from fiber-optic strain sensors placed on the ring gear of the planetary stage are compared to conventional torque measurements from strain gauges placed on the main shaft. Two different torque estimation data processing methods were evaluated, with the method based on operational deflection shapes providing the most accurate results with an average normalized root mean square error below 0.7% for a load revolution distribution analysis. The effect of operating conditions on the torque estimate was also investigated, and the third planet-passing operational deflection shape was found to be the least sensitive to nontorque load-related effects. The fiber-optic strain sensors' successful operation during the complete test campaign has demonstrated a robust and accurate solution for fleet-wide enhanced gearbox remaining useful life estimation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantum error mitigation by layerwise Richardson extrapolation

A widely used method for mitigating errors in noisy quantum computers is Richardson extrapolation, a technique in which the overall effect of noise on the estimation of quantum expectation values is captured by a single parameter that, after being scaled to larger values, is eventually extrapolated to the zero-noise limit. We generalize this approach by introducing layerwise Richardson extrapolation (LRE), an error mitigation protocol in which the noise of different individual layers (or larger chunks of the circuit) is amplified and the associated expectation values are linearly combined to estimate the zero-noise limit. The coefficients of the linear combination are analytically obtained from the theory of multivariate Lagrange interpolation. LRE leverages the flexible configurational space of layerwise unitary folding, allowing for a more nuanced mitigation of errors by treating the noise level of each layer of the quantum circuit as an independent variable. Furthermore, we provide numerical simulations demonstrating scenarios where LRE achieves superior performance compared to traditional (single-variable) Richardson extrapolation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗